Zimbabwe&#8217;s recent national election, resulting in a narrow win for the incumbent ZANU-PF party and President Emmerson Mnangagwa, is facing challenges amid allegations of fraud and irregularities by the leading opposition party, the Citizens’ Coalition for Change. International observers highlight concerns over transparency and fair practices, while Zimbabwe&#8217;s history of economic decline and political turmoil looms large.



Zimbabwe’s hotly-contested national election, which ended in a narrow victory by the incumbent ZANU-PF party and President Emmerson Mnangagwa, is set to be challenged by the leading opposition party, the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC), with the CCC’s leader declaring the election a “gigantic fraud”. The voting process has been critiqued by both local and international observers and has borne allegations of voting irregularities and intimidation by the ruling party and affiliated groups.



The voting, which began on Wednesday, August 23, was extended by a day due to the non-delivery of ballots in many polling stations, including those in the capital of Harare and Bulawayo. This saw some voters queuing for over 24 hours to cast their ballots.



Issues around the timely delivery and sealing of ballots, excessive delays in procedure, as well as allegations of gerrymandering, were all noted as concerns by South African Development Community (SADC) observers, who issued their preliminary report on the election over the weekend, noting that it “fell short of the requirements of the Constitution of Zimbabwe, the Electoral Act, and the SADC Principles and Guidelines Governing Democratic Elections (2021).”



“Zimbabwe was never a democracy, and it is still not a democracy,” tweeted prominent Zimbabwean journalist Hopewell Chin’ono. “That means it would be foolish for anyone of us to have expected a Free, Fair, and Credible election from ZANUPF.”



Similar concerns to those of SADC were noted by both European Union (EU) and Commonwealth observers, who also cited stakeholder concerns of voter intimidation and irregularities in the handling of ballots by the Zimbabwean Electoral Commission (ZEC). Observers did, however, note that the election process was largely peaceful, in stark contrast to the 2018 general election.



Local civil society organizations known to conduct independent oversight on the voting, such as the Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) and Election Resource Centre (ERC), who deploy observers and issue projections regarding the voting, saw their offices raided by government security forces as the vote counting was being concluded. Their staff was arrested and all equipment seized, contributing to a climate of uncertainty and intimidation surrounding the election and leading to further criticism by international bodies.



The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) condemned the arrests, calling for the immediate release of all persons detained and stating, “This is a worrying development for human rights in Zimbabwe, and it undermines democracy and respect for human rights,” in a statement last week.



The United Nations Secretary-General also expressed concerns through a spokesperson in a statement late yesterday: “The Secretary-General is closely following developments in Zimbabwe&#8217;s elections. He is concerned about the arrest of observers, reports of voter intimidation, threats of violence, harassment, and coercion.”



The primary opposition party, the CCC, has rejected the results, with party leader Nelson Chamisa stating, “There’s going to be a change in Zimbabwe, whether ZANU-PF people want it or not… we will not wait for five years, there has to be a change now,” he said in a media briefing yesterday.



ZANU-PF has held the reins of power since the end of white-minority rule in the country since 1980, initially under the long reign of Robert Mugabe, who was ousted in a coup in 2017. Then Vice-President Mnangagwa ascended to the Presidency with the support of the Zimbabwean Defense force and its commander, Constantino Chiwenga.



Mnangagwa’s regime has been reportedly marred by authoritarianism and corruption scandals, with a recent Al-Jazeera documentary implicating the President and many of his political associates in smuggling and money laundering. This is in a country ranked as one of the poorest in the world, according to World Bank data.



Under Mugabe’s rule and the controversial land reform policies of the early 2000s, the country saw a steep economic decline, hyperinflation, and increasing international sanctions. The continued instability in the country has led to many professionals leaving for better pastures, particularly that of neighboring South Africa.



The CCC’s Chamisa has indicated that the party will challenge the election results in court.



President Mnangagwa, after securing his second term, celebrated his victory and commended what he termed the transparency of the process, stating that the lack of violence was a sign of the country’s maturing democracy, and that some “…observation missions went beyond their call of duty…” and that “… those who feel the race was not run properly, know where to go.”

Zimbabwe Gears Up For 2023 General Elections

Zimbabwe Election Uncertainty: Opposition Challenges Narrow Victory

Blockchain is being adapted for election usage elsewhere in the world, and could provide the answer to making voting more transparent in Africa.
Kenyan elections are notoriously tricky affairs, usually with disputed results and occasionally with accompanying violence.Other African elections often descend into chaos, as most recently seen in Zimbabwe, but in blockchain, the open, distributed ledger most commonly associated with bitcoin, a solution may have been found.
Earlier this year, presidential elections took place in Sierra Leone. During the vote, Swiss foundation Agora used blockchain to record votes in more than 300 polling centers. As blockchain records transactions in a verifiable and permanent way, it is almost impossible to alter. Therefore, by recording votes on it, elections in theory become more transparent.
This greater transparency could be pivotal to ensuring more effective democracy and calmer elections across Africa, where disputes over votes are common. Kenya looks set to become the next country to test the benefits, with the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) Chairman Wafula Chebukati saying it would utilize blockchain in the next elections.
<a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/entrepreneurs/2018/09/03/building-blockchain-tech-with-the-world-as-their-official-address/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Building Blockchain Tech With The World As Their Official Address</a>
What impact could it have? Michael Kimani is Chairman of the Blockchain Association of Kenya, and he says that will depend on how it is used.
“From my experience, any deployment of distributed ledger technology could be at one of three points in the electoral system – the main server where voter registration data is held, the national tallying center where all information from across the country is collated, and the tallying centers where group representatives take part in a tallying process,” he says.
Wherever and however the IEBC chooses to employ blockchain, electoral laws would have to be changed to accommodate it. Kimani also says it’s worth keeping in mind that the technology itself is still nascent.
“Beyond cryptocurrency, there hasn’t been any deployment at scale,” he says. 
Nevertheless, Kimani believes the IEBC statement is a positive starting point, and that using blockchain could have a significant impact on reducing fraud.
<blockquote>“The concept of a distributed ledger for processes that were previously limited to a single entity would provide significant improvements for the whole process,” he says.</blockquote>
“The concept of a distributed ledger for processes that were previously limited to a single entity would provide significant improvements for the whole process,” he says.
“I am less concerned about the technology itself. It really boils down to man-made specifications that can be implemented. I see potential problems in setting up the necessary governance structures required to make it a reality. There are some things the technology can do, but the rest of it is really up to humans – the laws we set up, the institutions we set up, the audit processes we set up to check on the technology where it fails, and the dispute resolution structures we set up.”
Challenges remain. Yet, blockchain is being adapted for election usage elsewhere in the world. It has been piloted in elections by the state of West Virginia in the United States, while tech firm Kaspersky Lab has built a platform that utilizes it for voting.
Alexey Malanov, a malware expert at Kaspersky Lab, says it is the next logical step on from online voting, which has been used in countries such as Estonia in northern Europe.
“Online voting can be highly beneficial for modern society – it has the potential to make voting easier, cheaper and more convenient. In the modern, efficiency-driven, mobile world, various limitations of offline voting have become apparent: it’s expensive, time-consuming and often inaccessible – or at least challenging for people who aren’t physically present to cast a vote,” he says.
<div id="attachment_37733" style="width: 210px" class="wp-caption alignright"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-37733" class="size-medium wp-image-37733" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Alexey-Malanov-200x300.jpg" alt="" width="200" height="300" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Alexey-Malanov-200x300.jpg 200w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Alexey-Malanov-300x450.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Alexey-Malanov-600x900.jpg 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Alexey-Malanov-768x1151.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Alexey-Malanov-683x1024.jpg 683w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Alexey-Malanov.jpg 1366w" sizes="(max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px" />Alexey Malanov</div>
“Online voting can help overcome these challenges, but this brings several uncertainties of its own: how to properly secure the process and how to make sure that the votes aren’t changed or altered by an external or internal party.”
Usage of blockchain technology for general elections, however, is not reasonable at the moment, he says.
“It’s quite a slow technology. A public blockchain processes 10 transactions per second, [which] is not enough to ensure voting for millions of citizens within one day,” Malanov says.
However, Kaspersky Lab is sure blockchain has vast potential yet to be uncovered, with its Business Incubator team exploring opportunities for secure implementation of blockchain for commercial use, and how its transparent, incorruptible and trusted characters could benefit areas beyond cryptocurrencies.
“We saw a great market opportunity and decided to support an experimental and promising project called Polys. It’s a secure online voting system based on blockchain technology and backed by transparent crypto-algorithms,” Malanov says.
“From the user’s perspective, it consists of a web service through which to organize voting and cast a vote, using a mobile phone or tablet. As in any vote, there are several key requirements that would make online voting trusted and secure – transparency of the process, anonymity of a voter and their confidence that their vote won’t be altered in favor of a candidate or option they didn’t choose.”
Blockchain-based programs like Polys provide all this, and it’s surely only a matter of time before we start seeing them used in African elections
&#8211; Tom Jackson

Blockchain At The Polls?

The Kenyan Supreme Court has found that the August 8 presidential election result is invalid. It blames the electoral commission, not the declared winner, Uhuru Kenyatta. Kenya’s leading newspaper praises the decision as a <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/oped/Editorial/Supreme-Court-ruling-has-restored-rule-of-law-/440804-4079912-3cupekz/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">step towards the rule of law</a>, but I am less sure about what this means for the ability of the political establishment to stick to the terms of the country’s constitution.
The Supreme Court has given the country 60 days to hold fresh elections. The time period is in accordance with section 140 (3) of the <a href="http://www.kenyalaw.org/lex/actview.xql?actid=Const2010" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Constitution</a>, but the court failed to tell the public exactly what the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission <a href="https://www.iebc.or.ke/">(IEBC)</a> had done wrong. This leaves Kenya with a compromised commission rerunning an election.
Chief Justice David Maraga <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLEQ72t2czs&amp;t=1216s" target="_blank" rel="noopener">noted that</a> the court had previously failed to provide a full judgment on the 2013 elections and this had not been received well. He then did exactly the same. Of course, the court had to provide a judgment on the opposition’s petition within 14 days, as stipulated by the Constitution. This is the period before the president-elect is inaugurated. The court would have sparked a constitutional crisis if it had not made any decision.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/06/15/will-decide-kenyan-election-dose-faith-tribe-hard-cash/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">What Will Decide The Kenyan Election? A Dose Of Faith, Tribe And Hard Cash</a>
But by not explaining how the IEBC has failed, the court has created a problem. It’s impossible to organize the next election and reform the commission in the time given.
<h2>Time pressure</h2>
The court gave itself up to 21 more days to deliver its full judgment. This would leave the country with only 39 days before the fresh election. Already, opposition leader Raila Odinga has <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001253339/raila-declares-fresh-war-on-iebc-lambasts-international-community" target="_blank" rel="noopener">declared</a> that his coalition will refuse to participate in presidential elections under the current leadership of the IEBC.
But, as a newspaper commentator <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001253324/why-it-s-not-feasible-to-replace-iebc-commissioners" target="_blank" rel="noopener">observes</a>, it’s just not feasible to remove IEBC commissioners without a tribunal, which is then reviewed by parliament. Complicating matters further, three citizens have filed a <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001253334/three-kenyans-want-iebc-commissioners-barred-from-polls" target="_blank" rel="noopener">separate petition</a> to ask the courts to remove certain IEBC officials over their wrongdoing.
Even once the full judgment is handed down within 21 days of the ruling, it probably won’t indicate criminality at the level of individuals. The Supreme Court was asked only to determine the validity of the election overall. Its full judgment can indicate how the process of the election must be improved.
The election was judged to be void because the electoral commission was at fault. This suggests it must change its procedures – and perhaps its personnel – if better elections are to take place. A new election must avoid the errors of the previous one.
Political scholar Gabrielle Lynch <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/Key-lessons-for-election-team-as-Kenyans-return-to-ballot-/440808-4079934-roelpv/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">explains</a> some of the corrections that have to be made. These include the process for transmitting results, the use of security forces and the uneven use of state resources.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/08/28/election-unlikely-herald-change-angolans-clamouring/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Election unlikely to herald the change Angolans have been clamouring for</a>
Few of these suggested corrections will be feasible within the allotted timeframe.
<h2>Serious problems</h2>
Indeed, the problems are serious. Months before the election was held, the courts <a href="http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2017/08/30/kenya-the-election-and-the-cover-up/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ordered</a> the IEBC to stop printing ballot papers, because of <a href="http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/Dispute-ballot-printing-tender-Kenyan-election/2558-3974504-2no9fv/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">claims</a> that the Dubai-based firm Ghurair held too many links to Kenyatta.
The claim against Ghurair was <a href="https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/07/20/nasa-loses-cross-appeal-on-uhuru-links-to-al-ghurair_c1600686" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dismissed</a> due to insufficient evidence. But part of the IEBC’s successful defence against the court order was the time pressure of having to hold an election in a few months’ time. If time pressure was a valid reason then, why would it not be now? Why would an even more rushed election be credible?
The <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/03/africa/kenya-election-official-chris-msando/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">murder</a> of the IEBC’s IT manager, Chris Msando, will now be under even closer scrutiny by the media. But even if the crime was directly related to the muddled tallying of votes, there isn’t time before the rerun to find individuals guilty. It is highly unlikely the full Supreme Court judgment will touch upon this tense topic. And that further reduces the credibility of the current IEBC.
<h2>Credibility concerns</h2>
The wider concerns with the IEBC date <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Shadow-Kenyan-Democracy-Widespread-Expectations/dp/147246768X" target="_blank" rel="noopener">back to</a> the “Chickengate” scandal. A UK court found a UK firm had <a href="http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/How-UK-sleuths-unearthed-Kenya-scandal/-/539546/2527142/-/12a1fcrz/-/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bribed</a> the IEBC (then the Interim Independent Electoral Commission) to get the contract to print ballot papers for the 2010 Kenyan constitutional referendum.
The UK co-conspirators were <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-sussex-31444228" target="_blank" rel="noopener">found guilty</a>. But no-one from the Kenyan side was put behind bars by Kenyan courts. This created mistrust of the IEBC leaders. The current crisis will revive past anxieties like these, but leave no time for meaningful reform.
In Kenyan elections, local witnesses must sign the official forms to say the local tally is accurate. Central tallying organized electronically must then match with these local forms. The election is considered free and fair if this is done properly. The Supreme Court has ruled that both the IEBC as a whole and its chairperson, Wafula Chebukati, are responsible for the failure on 8 August.
Chebukati has <a href="http://nairobinews.nation.co.ke/news/chebukati-storm-not-quitting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">refused to stand down</a>. His response doesn’t boost public confidence in the institution. If the public is to trust the rerun, he must go.
<h2>Asking for more time</h2>
The IEBC should then petition the Supreme Court to give it more time.
It was done before, when the 2013 election was <a href="http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/oped/comment/Unrealistic-timelines-blame-for-Kenya-electoral-flaws/434750-3798034-ecoaogz/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">delayed</a> because of the difficulty of implementing aspects of the new Constitution.
Section 86 of the Constitution requires the IEBC to collate the results of an election openly and accurately. At present, it can’t meet this requirement because it does not know what it must do differently from before. The IEBC should therefore depend on Section 86 when it asks the Supreme Court for more time. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dominic-burbidge-405209" target="_blank" rel="author noopener">Dominic Burbidge</a>, Postdoctoral Researcher, Faculty of Law, University of Oxford
Originally published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>
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Kenya’s Supreme Court has given an impossible deadline for the repeat election

On 23 August Angolans went to the polls to elect a new parliament, and for the first time in the lives of a great majority of the population, a new president. José Eduardo dos Santos, who ruled the country for 38 years, did not run this time as his party’s top candidate.
Instead, the MPLA, the Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola (Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola) fielded Defence Minister, <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/who-is-angolas-next-president-joao-lourenco/a-40218458" target="_blank" rel="noopener">João Lourenço</a>, as its presidential candidate. So the mais velho (old man) has <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/1505928.stm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">finally</a> left. This in itself is a significant moment, considering how difficult it appears for <a href="https://qz.com/1059007/angola-election-jose-eduardo-dos-santos-will-step-down-as-angola-elects-its-first-new-leader-in-38-years/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">some African leaders</a> to relinquish power.
Despite this, it’s likely that the elections will bring more of the same, and only slow and gradual improvements — if at all — of <a href="https://www.cmi.no/news/1671-angola-from-boom-to-bust-to-breaking-point" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the lives of most Angolans</a>. Lourenço is very much a product of the system. He has the backing of the party and the armed forces, which is an improvement over Dos Santos’ previous intended successor, (former) vice-president, <a href="https://www.africa-confidential.com/whos-who-profile/id/3227/page/3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Manuel Vicente</a>.
Vicente was pushed through against the party’s will as Dos Santos’ running mate in the 2012 elections. He had no “liberation credentials”, and is <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-38996879" target="_blank" rel="noopener">under investigation</a> for the corruption of a magistrate in Portugal. It would also appear that, for now, any plans for <a href="https://www.makaangola.org/2013/07/dos-santos%c2%92-son-shapes-his-own-government/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dynastic succession</a> are off the table.
Some Angolan commentators have called Lourenço “dull”, and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w172vgh8cd1mg4v%22" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“not previously known for his intellectual capacities</a>. But, compared to <a href="https://www.makaangola.org/2016/10/incompetence-and-corruption-sinks-angolas-development-bank/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">some</a> of his MPLA comrades, he has a reputation of relative probity. Nevertheless he is unlikely to be willing – or able – to <a href="https://www.voaportugues.com/a/cabinda-padre-congo-duvida-que-eleicoes-tragam-mudancas/3996126.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">change</a> the current political economic dispensation.
<h2>Corruption</h2>
Lourenço campaigned under the motto &#8220;<a href="http://www.angop.ao/angola/pt_pt/noticias/politica/2016/11/50/Melhorar-que-esta-bem-corrigir-que-esta-mal-novo-lema-estrategico-MPLA,62faa988-79c5-4357-9c58-2716650c8f23.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">improve what is good, correct what is bad</a>&#8221; and vowed to tackle corruption.
Legal frameworks to combat corruption already exist, such as the 2010 <a href="http://www.angop.ao/angola/pt_pt/noticias/politica/2011/10/46/Lei-Probidade-Publica-vem-reforcar-mecanismos-combate-corrupcao,72965749-90f9-48c7-9eff-1a028c953b97.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">law on public probity</a> and anti-money laundering <a href="http://cdn2.portalangop.co.ao/angola/en_us/noticias/economia/2016/0/2/Angola-BNA-implements-measures-prevent-money-laundering,93c706db-6098-497d-87ea-fd84ae765db9.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">measures</a> in the banking sector. But despite repeated high-level declarations of a &#8220;zero tolerance” policy, Dos Santos, his family and his close entourage remain the <a href="http://africanarguments.org/2017/08/14/angola-elections-ruling-family-dos-santos-worth-billions-what-happens-when-dad-steps-down/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prime beneficiaries</a> of the misappropriation of public funds. This tendency has become even more marked in the past three years, with the president’s family openly multiplying their private gains from publicly funded investments. The <a href="https://southernafrican.news/2016/11/18/isabel-dos-santos-defends-appointment-to-sonangol/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">appointment</a> of Dos Santos’ daughter, Isabel dos Santos, at the head of state oil company Sonangol is the most glaring example of this.
Such “eating of commissions” in all productive sectors of the economy would have to be tackled to address the profound <a href="http://africasacountry.com/2016/03/the-economic-crises-in-angola/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">economic, political</a> and <a href="http://www.africanews.com/2016/05/16/angola-s-health-crisis-deepens-after-slump-in-oil-causes-budget-cuts/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">social</a> crisis the country has faced since the fall of world oil prices in late 2014.
But it’s doubtful Lourenço will be able to institute such a change, especially as Dos Santos has “locked in” by decree his latest appointments. These include the heads of the army and state security forces, as well as those of his children Isabel and José Filomeno ‘<a href="http://expresso.sapo.pt/internacional/2016-07-17-O-destino-de-Zenu" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zénú</a>’ dos Santos, at the helm of Sonangol and the Sovereign Wealth Fund.
Dos Santos has granted himself and his entourage <a href="https://www.makaangola.org/2017/06/lifelong-immunity-from-prosecution-for-the-president/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lifelong immunity</a> from prosecution and remains president of the MPLA. This ensures that whoever succeeds him is likely to depend on him and his family economically, and is unlikely to go after the family’s ill-gotten gains.
<h2>Election outcome</h2>
Although election day was peaceful and orderly, there was reportedly widespread abstention (20%) and targeted voter disenfranchisement. Some voters turned up at polling stations only to hear they had been registered at a different place, often kilometres away. On 25 August the nominally independent National Electoral Commission <a href="http://www.dw.com/pt-002/cne-atualiza-resultados-mpla-vence-elei%C3%A7%C3%B5es-em-angola-com-617/a-40238976" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced “provisional” results</a> with the MPLA as the winner with 61% of the vote, down from 72% in 2012 and 81% in 2008.
Parallel counting from the voting stations, by contrast, shows opposition parties winning in many urban areas. This tallies with some pre-election opinion polls and the general public mood. In a truly open contest — which it <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03057070.2010.507572" target="_blank" rel="noopener">was</a> <a href="https://www.makaangola.org/2017/08/a-teoria-da-fraude-eleitoral-em-angola/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">not</a> — the MPLA would probably have lost Luanda and some provincial capitals, even if at national level it would likely still have come out on top.
The results are thus likely to be fiercely <a href="http://www.dw.com/pt-002/angola-t%C3%A9cnicos-da-oposi%C3%A7%C3%A3o-contestam-apuramento-da-cne/a-40232826" target="_blank" rel="noopener">contested</a>, though given the politicisation of the judiciary and the electoral organs, the MPLA is likely to emerge as the winner in the end, albeit with a significantly reduced majority.
It remains to be seen whether the end of dos Santos’ rule will also mean turning the page on the <a href="http://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/?GCOI=80140100492980" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sistema dos Santos (System dos Santos)</a>, and a change in the ways in which the Angolan political economy works. For the MPLA, losing key urban districts, and probably in a free contest only just scraping past the 50% mark nationwide was something hitherto unthinkable, especially for the party’s old guard who still think the MPLA has a destiny to lead Angola for the coming 25 years. Perhaps this poor showing might prove a wake-up call and strengthen reformist tendencies within the party, and provide some incentive to start a constructive dialogue with the opposition.
But the regime has so far been remarkably resilient to crises. The <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03057070.2013.798541?src=recsys&amp;journalCode=cjss20" target="_blank" rel="noopener">political awakening</a> of a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/13/angola-repression-generates-more-dissent-politics-mpla" target="_blank" rel="noopener">growing number</a> of Angolans over the past years has <a href="https://www.voaportugues.com/a/abel-chivukuvuku-pica-candidato-mpla-novo-pedido-debate/3964756.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">strengthened</a> <a href="http://www.angonoticias.com/Artigos/item/55128/eleicoes-2017-samakuva-reitera-governo-inclusivo-e-participativo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">opposition parties</a> in their <a href="http://www.africanews.com/2016/02/29/angola-opposition-kicks-against-management-of-yellow-fever-epidemic//" target="_blank" rel="noopener">positions</a>, yet it will require continued <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2016/02/angola-15-activist-your-support-got-us-out-of-prison/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">pressure</a> and <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/a-trial-in-angola-increasingly-seen-as-a-farce/a-19131740" target="_blank" rel="noopener">activism</a>, and more than a change of the figurehead at the top, to fundamentally reorder Angola’s social, political, and economic relations — which is what Angolans are increasingly <a href="https://qz.com/538237/ordinary-angolans-are-asking-where-did-all-the-oil-riches-go/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">clamouring</a> for. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jon-schubert-402560" target="_blank" rel="author noopener">Jon Schubert</a>, Senior research fellow: Civil War and State Formation, Global Studies Institute, Université de Genève
Originally published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>
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Election unlikely to herald the change Angolans have been clamouring for

Kenya’s 2017 polls will be remembered as the election of minor gains and confounding contradictions.
In the run up to polling, public discontent appeared to have been largely driven by the unprecedented sophistication in <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000181261/corruption-tribalism-conspire-to-hold-kenya-to-ransom" target="_blank" rel="noopener">graft</a> and <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Tribalism-Ethnicity-NCIC-Francis-ole-Kaparo/1064-2661730-6enm4cz/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tribalism</a> in the President Uhuru Kenyatta’s government.
But both Kenyatta and opposition candidate Raila Odinga demonstrated a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/08/08/who-are-the-two-men-competing-to-be-president-of-kenya/?utm_term=.12bf77ed5942" target="_blank" rel="noopener">weak</a> <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2000030197/raila-s-family-was-involved-in-maize-scandal-claim-us-cables" target="_blank" rel="noopener">commitment</a> to tackling corruption. In fact, neither of them articulated a bold agenda to <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Nasa-launches-manifesto/1064-3989916-fb7nmtz/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">roll back</a> <a href="http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/06/26/uhuruto-launch-jubilee-manifesto-ahead-of-august-poll_c1586475" target="_blank" rel="noopener">graft</a>.
As the grand finale of a <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/kenya-elections-kenya-president-uhuru-kenyatta-raila-odinga-647526" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dynastic struggle</a> between the Odinga and Kenyatta families, both candidates boldly manipulated the ethnic formula while their supporters once again demonstrated a stubborn fixation with traditional voting patterns. This is reflected in the <a href="http://results.ke.nation.news/kenya/president.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">results </a>from the presidential candidates’ ethnic strongholds.
Despite these failings, the Kenyan people handed Kenyatta a comfortable second term.
On top of this, some of the blunders and disturbing <a href="https://www.hrw.org/blog-feed/kenya-elections-2017" target="_blank" rel="noopener">trends</a> witnessed in previous elections were repeated. These included social media <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-options-for-kenya-as-an-impending-election-fuels-fear-of-hate-speech-71913" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hate speech</a>; a high-profile <a href="http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/08/04/probe-msando-murder-quickly-poll-observers_c1609972" target="_blank" rel="noopener">murder</a>; <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Kenya-presidential-election-results-2017/1056-4050770-format-xhtml-3s06wy/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poor communication</a> from the electoral commission when it came to relaying results; inadequate voter education; and <a href="http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/08/09/video-raila-rejects-provisional-results-terms-them-fraudulent-fake_c1613061" target="_blank" rel="noopener">inflammatory statements</a> by leading figures when provisional election results were released.
<h2>Mixed results</h2>
At the national level, Kenyans seem to have repeated a monotonous script that suggests a resistance to learning from past mistakes.
At the micro level, the results were mixed, delivering both positive and negative outcomes. Promising candidates such as social-justice activist Boniface Mwangi, who campaigned on a platform of ethics and integrity, <a href="http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/08/09/boniface-mwangi-concedes-after-jaguar-takes-lead-in-starehe_c1613123" target="_blank" rel="noopener">failed</a> to make the cut. But others, like Anne Waiguru, a former cabinet secretary implicated in <a href="http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2017/04/waiguru-routs-governor-ndathi-kirinyaga-jubilee-primary/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">corruption</a> and Professor Anyang Nyong’o, whose nomination was <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Tribunal-cancels-Anyang--Nyong-o-poll-victory/1064-3911590-12v5ncu/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">contested</a> in the primaries, pulled through.
On the positive side, three women made forays into <a href="http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/08/09/kenyas-first-women-governors-ngilu-laboso-waiguru-flying-high-after_c1613173" target="_blank" rel="noopener">governorships</a> thus paving the way for more women to join the fray in future. And in some regions like Eastern Province, people resisted major political party dominance by re-electing <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001250828/governor-mutua-re-elected-as-wavinya-ndeti-vows-to-challenge-results" target="_blank" rel="noopener">individuals</a> from minor parties, which is laudable.
At the same time, some regions such as Rift Valley province maintained their strong Jubilee Party leanings as seen in the punitive ouster of <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001250744/early-results-show-ruto-trailing-laboso-in-bomet-county" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Isaac Ruto</a> who ditched the Jubilee Party for his own Chama cha Mashinani.
These dynamics are suggestive of a palpable tension between progress and the status quo. It remains to be seen which will prevail.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/06/15/will-decide-kenyan-election-dose-faith-tribe-hard-cash/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">What Will Decide The Kenyan Election? A Dose OF Faith, Tribe And Hard Cash</a>
<h2>Only one winner</h2>
Ultimately, there could only be one winner between the two presidential choices. President Kenyatta was poised to clinch a <a href="https://theconversation.com/kenyatta-or-odinga-why-dynastic-politics-is-alive-and-well-in-kenya-80732" target="_blank" rel="noopener">second term</a> for obvious reasons. He is highly personable and seems to enjoy strong political chemistry with his supporters. He also boasts strong social media credentials – he skipped this year’s presidential debate, opting instead to directly engage his supporters on Facebook.
With the incumbency in his favour, he campaigned on the platform of his first term <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Uhuru-says-Jubilee-track-record-good-for-second-term/1064-4041342-h77pbs/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">track record</a> and projected the confidence to finish the job.
But there was also something more sinister that played in his favour. He has perfected the art of <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/raila-links-uhuru-family-to-alleged-loss-at-health-ministry/1056-3433818-mklw4iz/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">insulating himself</a> from the <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Uhuru-sister-firm-listed-in-disadvantaged-group/1056-3434656-5st40t/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">controversies</a> that have rocked his government. His deputy, William Ruto has been the shock absorber that has taken the flak over <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Ruto-fights-back-as-graft-fells-more-allies/1064-3095364-aavdffz/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">alleged links</a> to various corruption scandals and political machinations.
The fact that Kenyatta has not been directly linked to corruption made him appear more trustworthy. Even though he has been sluggish in acting on graft and inefficiency, some of the minor cabinet shake-ups he stimulated seemed to have paid off.
Examples include Joseph ole Lenku’s <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000143316/interior-cabinet-secretary-joseph-ole-lenku-fired-as-inspector-of-police-david-kimaiyo-resigns" target="_blank" rel="noopener">exit</a> as cabinet secretary for interior and the <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000183163/devolution-and-planning-cs-anne-waiguru-finally-bows-to-pressure-and-resigns" target="_blank" rel="noopener">resignation</a> of the former devolution cabinet secretary, Anne Waiguru, to pave way for corruption investigations.
These actions helped him retain his 2013 strongholds while giving the impression that he can also act tough.
On top of this, his loyalty to his deputy who has often been portrayed as the <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001230917/the-incredible-rise-of-dp-william-ruto" target="_blank" rel="noopener">corrupt villain</a>, enabled him retain a sizeable chunk of Ruto’s <a href="http://results.ke.nation.news/kenya/president.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">backyard</a> – the Rift Valley voting bloc.
After securing a comfortable win, Kenyatta is no longer a political hostage who is constrained by the appeasement of first term allies. Does this mean that he’ll develop a firm hand to tackle some of the issues that have dogged his government? If he does, he might just turn out to be the political pill that the doctor ordered for Kenyans.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/investment-guide/2016/10/01/kenya-crossroads-caps/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kenya At A Crossroads With Caps</a>
<h2>End of an era</h2>
Raila Odinga, Kenya’s veteran political stalwart, has a strong track record as a champion for political reforms, and is <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/raila-odinga-olitics-kenya/1056-3945030-3vnfthz/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">loved and disliked</a> in equal measure. This is the fourth time he has vied for the presidency and lost even though questions persist over the disputed <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Raila-won-2007-elections--says-Macharia/1064-3506012-q12oic/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2007</a> and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/30/world/africa/voting-irregularities-in-kenya-election-are-confirmed.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2013</a> election results.
Odinga lost the 2017 elections for two reasons. Some voters buckled under the weight of “Raila fatigue” and <a href="https://www.tuko.co.ke/157874-raila-odinga-supporters-are-tired-of-voting-for-him-wetangula-video.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">accompanying</a> <a href="http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2016/07/23/wetangula-rubbishes-railas-2017-election-bid_c1391000" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disillusionment</a>. Both can be partly attributed to the fact that he has lost at every shot he’s made at the presidency.
Odinga <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Uhuru-woos-Raila-for-State-job-/1064-1849700-ysiy7b/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">missed the opportunity</a> to exit the political stage at the apex of his political calling.
Granted, several other issues worked against him such as a weak internal party democracy, allegations of corruption and a disorganised campaign machine. That said, he should now consolidate his legacy by nurturing other leaders who are passionate about social reforms.
For their part, the elections provide the Kenyan people with yet another opportunity to demand more accountability from the leaders they have voted into power. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/yvonne-rowa-woods-347095" target="_blank" rel="author noopener">Yvonne Rowa Woods, </a>PhD Candidate in Politics and International Studies, University of Adelaide
Originally published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>
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Kenya’s 2017 poll: palpable tension between progress and the status quo

After accepting his <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001237873/raila-odinga-it-is-nasa-unveils-flag-bearer" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">nomination</a> as the presidential candidate of the main opposition coalition recently, Raila Odinga <a href="http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/05/10/nasas-joshua-raila-prays-at-israels-wailing-wall-ahead-of-election_c1558553" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">likened himself to Joshua</a>, the biblical figure who led the Jews to the Promised Land.
Odinga was appealing to people disaffected with the performance of the Jubilee government. But he was also appealing to the religious sensibilities of the Kenyan electorate where Christianity has a strong presence.
Religion is omnipresent in Kenya. The line between religion and politics is often thin. This is well illustrated by the fact that gospel music serves as an important vehicle for political mobilisation. Most of the <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/news/east-africa/2017/01/12/nasa-new-party-on-kenyan-political-scene/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">National Super Alliance’s</a> campaign rallies feature a rendering of the popular gospel song “Mambo yabadilika” (things are a-changing).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROY5KeXRkPA
Odinga, as well as President Uhuru Kenyatta who is seeking re-election under the Jubilee Party in the August 8 polls, have sought to endear themselves to the main religious communities. Kenyatta even had members of the Supreme Council of Kenya Muslims, the National Muslim Leaders Forum and the Jamia Mosque visit State House where they <a href="http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2017/05/muslim-leaders-vow-rally-community-behind-president-kenyatta/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">pledged their support</a> for his re-election bid. Religion and politics are entwined, each to some extent complicit in the providential authority of the other.
Odinga and Kenyatta aren’t alone. In their quest for the votes of the religious constituencies, all political aspirants have sought to present themselves as people of faith.
But other equally important dynamics shape political relationships in Kenya. Religious symbols operate cheek by jowl with what political scientist Jean Francis Bayart has referred to as the <a href="http://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/9labe9r4se65i789685q56i9p/export/cv/Leguil-Bayart-Jean-Fran%C3%A7ois-resume.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">“politics of the belly”</a>. A third factor makes for an even headier mix – ethnic affiliations. Combined, these three factors distort democracy, and the way in which elections are run in the country.
<h2>Eating campaign money</h2>
On a recent visit to western Kenya during the party primaries I was struck by how voters’ actively sought cash handouts from politicians. And there is no shortage of candidates ready to offer money to the electorate as an inducement to vote for them. A young man who gave me a ride on his motorcycle taxi spoke with pride about his busy schedule these days – “eating campaign money” by night and working by day.
Elderly men and women were seated along village lanes looking out for election candidates who might offer them “something small.” They were open to offers from whichever politician turned up. The amounts they got ranged from around 100 shillings ($1) to 1,000 shillings ($10), often not enough even to feed a family for a day. But the money counts for a lot in the context of extreme poverty.
I also attended an election campaign rally in which a candidate presented what seemed to be a well-thought-out blueprint for the development of his local ward. At the conclusion of the presentation, one person in the audience broke the silence with a bold demand for more tangible results:
<blockquote>That is enough speech-making, can you now talk to us?</blockquote>
“Talking to us” was easily understood to mean that it was time to give cash gifts to seal the bond.
Demands like this are not unusual during election campaigns in Kenya. They have been a regular feature of elections as long as anyone can remember. One can only imagine what this year’s campaign will be like on the back of a severe drought that has <a href="http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFKBN17U1Z3-OZABS" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">deepened inflation</a> and led to <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/newsplex/2017-kenya-drought/2718262-3872970-vniwqd/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">economic hardships</a>.
Building a democratic culture in the context of extreme hardships is a big challenge. As in many African countries undergoing democratic transitions amid conditions of high poverty, economic circumstances hinder or dissuade people from participation in the political process.
<h2>Politics of the belly</h2>
So what’s the relationship between religion and handouts? They interact and influence each other in myriad ways. Politicians distribute goods for the bellies of their clients in return for political loyalty. In this context, democracy as a competitive process in which citizens freely elect their leaders is thrown out of the window.
The Kenyan Muslim leaders’ assurances of support for Kenyatta needs to understood against this background. The leaders – hint, hint – expressed gratitude to the president for appointing the highest number of Cabinet secretaries and Principal Secretaries from the (Muslim) community.
A common pattern of religious accommodation in post-colonial East African states has been <a href="http://14.139.206.50:8080/jspui/bitstream/1/2400/1/Haynes,%20Jeffrey%20(ed.)%20-%20Routledge%20Handbook%20of%20Religion%20and%20Politics.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">documented</a>. Reflecting trends in Kenya, various religious groups have worked with governments and parties, irrespective of their political philosophies and ideologies.
It is also important to locate religion and politics in Africa within the broader context of ethnicity which has been sustained, and even strengthened, through the political distribution of goods and wealth.
The logic here is not based on universal ideas of human rights and citizenship but rather on networks of tribal patronage and clientelism. Politicians offer their ethnic clients certain material and symbolic gestures such as invocation of tribe, money, jobs in exchange for political support. It is an insecure means of organising support, admittedly, and one that is constantly at risk of corrupt indulgence in order to fund private benefit.
Thus <a href="http://africasacountry.com/2014/05/the-politics-of-the-belly/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Bayart’s politics-of-the-belly </a>casts a long shadow on the deployment of culture in African states. It demonstrates that religion has followed patterns established by the politics of ethnicity in which merit and common good does not matter.
The current campaign confirms these various forms of symbolic and symbiotic relationships within Kenyan politics. Religious services and rhetoric, money tokens and ethnicity are an integral part of the political system. They will likely again be the main influence in the coming election.
Kenya’s political elite has historically been formed in mission schools, mostly within their ethnic groups and subject to ethnic expectations. Thus it’s an elite formed by – and crippled by – ethnic pride. Religious actors have not escaped a similar elite formation. Thus Kenya’s children of God are rarely Kenyans at large. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/joseph-wandera-338843" target="_blank" rel="author noopener noreferrer">Joseph Wandera</a>, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Religious Studies, St Paul&#8217;s University
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Conversation</a>
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What Will Decide The Kenyan Election? A Dose Of Faith, Tribe And Hard Cash

As Tokyo Sexwale jets around the world seeking support for his bid to become Fifa president, his most significant trip will have been to the US grand jury in December.
A fleeting visit to New York remains shrouded in mystery with the US Attorney General’s offices refusing to comment and Sexwale’s camp saying only: “He did appear before a grand jury. The FBI said he needed to appear and he went as a potential witness.”
But it is almost certainly related to the bribery and corruption allegations in which South African officials are accused and, even if he is not directly implicated, will cast a dark shadow over Sexwale’s bid to become the first African to head world football’s governing body.
The election of a new leader of world football will come at an extraordinary congress in Zurich on February 26 with Sexwale among the five candidates in a distinctly underwhelming field with no clear favorite and the potential for an upset.
Sexwale could have offered a gravitas missing among the candidates, with his impeccable anti-apartheid credentials, his time spent in prison on Robben Island alongside Nelson Mandela and his role in the governing of a post-apartheid South Africa when he served as the first premier of the Gauteng province.
But, as a member of the South African bid committee that successfully campaigned for the country to host the 2010 World Cup, his candidacy is now clouded by the possibility of vote buying, notably to Jack Warner from Trinidad and Tobago, the former Fifa vice president and powerful leader of the Caribbean bloc who delivered vital support.
Two high ranking South Africans have been fingered in the United States (US) indictment against a bevy of former Fifa officials, with allegations they handed over a suitcase of cash dollars in a Paris hotel room to one of Warner’s sons and that a $10-million ‘donation’ from South Africa to Caribbean football was nothing more than a bribe.
The pair have not been named but their identities will eventually become public once the court cases in the US get underway.
It leaves Sexwale out on the fringes of the race when he might have been able to offer himself as an alternative to what looks increasingly like a straight tussle between the Asian and European blocs.
Sheikh Salman bin Ebrahim al-Khalifa of Bahrain is the president of the Asian Football Confederation and, according to most pundits, the frontrunner, albeit narrowly ahead of Gianni Infantino, the Swiss attorney who is the Uefa general secretary and was supposed to be a proxy candidate but has since been pushed to the front since the banning of Uefa president Michel Platini.
Sexwale, who has made a large personal fortune in mining and other business, has tenuous football credentials and no apparent reason for wanting to become Fifa president other than it would be a good lark. The 62-year-old does not lack money, profile or international reputation.
His previous involvement with football has been to sit on a few Fifa committees at the invitation of Sepp Blatter, who was impressed by his jocularity and competence at the time of South Africa’s hosting of the World Cup. Sexwale was initially a member on Fifa’s anti-racism committee, then one that dealt with media matters and now serves as a mediator in fractious relationship between Israeli and Palestinian football.
Sexwale has had no involvement in South African football and, unlike many of his former cabinet colleagues, is rarely seen at games either. The name ‘Tokyo’ comes from a nickname given to him as a kid for his passion for karate, rather than the round ball game, when he was growing up. He was baptized Mosima Gabriel.
His manifesto did him no favors either, with its strongest point being a bizarre promise to allow national teams to display sponsorship on their jerseys so football associations could make more money.
At a time when greater issues have to be dealt with at Fifa, and the world of football is crying out for someone to offer a road map to a credible and clean future, Sexwale’s points seemed disappointingly trivial.
In December, at a rare forum in front of the press, his strongest argument for being president was his Africaness.
“The score is 111 to zero against Africa. For 111 years, Fifa has not had an African,” he said in Johannesburg. “I’m not here to keep quiet like a slave and pretend that these things are not happening.”
This will likely have little appeal in the hardened forum of sports politics, where arguments over race and religion have long since dissolved, with Africans having headed both world athletics and swimming in the past.
In the insular world of football politics, Sexwale is an outsider and his bid to get an endorsement from his own continent failed when the Confederation of African Football received him in Cairo in November and listened to his presentation but pointedly did not move to back him, even though he is the only African in the race.
Sexwale has missed a trick in failing to concentrate his message on ways to fix the crisis at Fifa – to change its statutes and structures and to devise methods for accountability that would help restore commercial and consumer confidence.
In the past, candidates for the Fifa presidency have made the mainstay of their electoral promise how much more money they could assure the voting member associations but, at this time, priorities are much changed.
Sexwale flashes a radiant smile; his barrel-chested voice commands instant attention and his charm is legendary. But he entered the race for the Fifa presidency with naivety, poor advice and, barring a comeback miracle, will exit with little more than a damaged reputation.

‘For 111 Years Fifa Has Not Had An African’

David Sipunzi’s election to the top job of general secretary in the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) was as low key as the man himself. He scraped in by nine votes against a man who had held the post for 10 years, Frans Baleni. Apparently, many in NUM felt the gentlemanly Baleni may have been too gentlemanly in dealing with the mining bosses.
The soft-spoken Sipunzi, a 54-year-old father of four from the small town of Willowvale, in the Eastern Cape, is a former underground miner. He was one of the first to join NUM when it formed in 1985. He spent decades as a union organizer, latterly in the Free State, and is seen as a radical.
“Sipunzi looks a bit like a deer in the headlights following his unanticipated election over the weekend. He has been suddenly foisted into the national spotlight with a swirl of contentious issues around him,” wrote journalist Ranjeni Munusamy, in the Daily Maverick.
Thapelo Tselapedi, a University of Johannesburg academic and political commentator, says Sipunzi was not a well-known candidate and his victory was a surprise.
“It is still early days to say Sipunzi and the new leadership will change the fortunes of the trade union. But for the new leadership, the task ahead is the unity of the federation (Cosatu). This could be the starting point to turn around things in the Tripartite,” says Tselapedi.
The Tripartite Alliance, comprising Cosatu, the federation that NUM is a member of; the African National Congress and the South African Communist Party, has been unsettled by divisions.
The first job for the new big man in NUM was to rally the troops at Westonaria Sports Complex, near Krugersdorp, west of Johannesburg, in late June. The union said there was going to be 3,000; less than a 1,000 turned up in the region that pushed for Sipunzi’s election. A fitting debut for a low key man.
On this day, the question was how NUM is going to stop the exodus of members – 100,000 to other unions in 10 bruising years in the mines. The former undisputed champion of the union movement is in danger of being knocked out by the militant streetfighters of the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (Amcu).
Prompted by his small audience’s warm applause, a calm and resolute Sipunzi took to the podium. He preached unity and radical recruitment.
“This situation is sad; we are very scared of it… Losing members means losing money. A union is strong when it has its own money. Let’s not use the excuse that the mines are closing down. We must look elsewhere for new membership. We must recruit in the construction sector, but we are lazy,” he says.
It is a search and fight against indolence that could decide the future of the most powerful union in Africa’s biggest mining industry.

Can The Deer Stare Down The Headlights?

The ruling Frelimo party, which has run Mozambique since 1975, is likely to struggle to hang on to its overwhelming majority, according to sources in Maputo, against opposition parties Renamo and Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM). There is also a strong chance that Renamo, the former rebel forces long in Frelimo’s shadow, will drop to third place in the voting.
“I think this election could be tight and Frelimo is unlikely to win a two thirds majority,” says a senior advisor to the government, who wished to remain anonymous.
“Unless there is a miracle, I think Renamo will drop to third place behind MDM. People in this country do not want war and they were not happy with the semi-civil war that Renamo tried to start last year.”
The man who will take the reins of Mozambique is Filipe Nyussi, the anointed successor of President Armando Guebuza, who was nominated by the ruling part in March. He is the son of former guerrilla fighters and is also expected to carry on the free market of the Guebuza years. Nyussi has little experience in business, but is known for his efficiency in running CFM, the state-owned railways and ports.
Political analysts in South Africa agree the elections will run smoothly and victory is certain for the ruling party.
“Mozambicans are willing to participate in the democratic elections, there’s no place for the rebels. When Nyussi gave a public lecture at UNISA (in Pretoria) he came across as somebody who could take the growing country’s economy to another level. He definitely stands head and shoulders above the rest,” says Shadrack Gutto, UNISA professor and political analyst.
In the first week of September, Renamo leader, Afonso Dhlakama, returned to Maputo for talks with president Guebuza. This was their first meeting after Dhlakama went into hiding at the end of 2013 after a political dispute.
“I am afraid that if Renamo doesn’t change leadership they will definitely fail in these elections. I think it is frustrations, I have seen the party doing desperate things such as going back to the bush. But they have recently committed to put the arms down and go to the polls. On the other hand, Frelimo has been holding regular elections. No doubt, Nyussi is the party choice and there’s confidence that he will grow the economy,” says Tawana Kupe, a professor at Wits University in Johannesburg.
Dhlakama, who has run in every presidential race since 1994, saw his support wane to 16% in 2009 polls.
The World Bank forecasts the Mozambican economy will grow by 8.1% this year and up to 8.6% in 2015.
In August, president Guebuza launched the 175MW gas plant at Ressano Garcia. It was a joint venture between Electricidade de Mocambique (EDM) and Sasol, a South African energy company with a 49% stake.
“Mozambique is set to become a global top ten gas player in the near future, if all the exploration and proven reserve results are taken into account… From an investment perspective, there have already been interests both from countries in the East as well as South Africa as off takers to products,” says Johan Muller, an energy analyst at Frost &amp; Sullivan.
A peaceful election could help usher in a new era of prosperity in what was once one of the poorest countries in the world.

Old Foes To Take A Beating

It’s 6:30 on an early winter morning. Eighty-year-old Josiah Mmutlwatse, watches a heavy police and army contingent roaming near his home. In Bekkersdal, a township south west of Johannesburg, the foggy air is filled with the smell of the previous night’s charred remains. It is election day in South Africa and the mood is tense.
On the eve of elections, the unrest in Bekkersdal resumed; with three polling stations torched by angry residents. The spontaneous violence began months before. This turbulent township, near the gold mines of the West Rand, has seen a string of unabated service delivery protests. As the elections drew closer, protests intensified with threats to disrupt the polls.
But none of this could deter pensioner Mmutlwatse, who at the crack of dawn was the first in the queue at his polling station. He has never missed an opportunity to cast his vote since the first democratic elections in 1994.
The former bus driver patiently waits for the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) personnel to erect a marquee to be used as a polling station. Thirty minutes later, he is pleased to have exercised his democratic right to elect his government.
Although his allegiance still lies with the ruling African National Congress (ANC), Mmutlwatse hopes these polls will bring some much-needed change.
“I voted for the liberation party as always – ANC. It set us free from apartheid. It is hope for our children. Since we have voted, we want the elected people, even president (Jacob) Zuma, to listen to our cries. Our votes should not be blank cheques.”
Last year, Nomvula Mokonyane, the premier of Gauteng, raised the ire of Bekkersdal residents when she said the ANC does not need the residents’ dirty votes. Mokonyane was responding to threats that they would boycott the elections if service delivery was not improved.
“I am hurt by the unrest the dissenting youth brought, some people are not appreciative of our hard-earned freedom to vote. The government has a big task ahead. It must be explained to them that our democracy did not come on a silver platter. People died for it. It is not for sale.”
Mmutlwatse has lived in the township for more than fifty years, coming from the nearby farms. He rented a backyard room for a year before he could secure a four-room home in 1950, where he still lives with his three daughters. Out of his seven children, they are the only ones still alive.
“It was the first time I felt I had some dignity. If you have a house of your own, where your children could call home, no matter the size, it is freedom.”
A lack of housing and the high rate of unemployment are challenges that the youth in the area must face, says Mmutlwatse. The majority are shack dwellers.
Though Mmutlwatse owned a house for many years, he says the ANC-led government made him feel it was really his own when he received the title deed a decade ago. But he acknowledges that Bekkersdal is a far cry from a functional area.
He knows the community inside out and in the past used his old minibus to transport people, sometimes for free. He was like a godfather to the younger generation.
“Education should be the priority here. We understand the youth is not up in arms for no reason, they are frustrated by the government’s empty promises. I watch them roaming streets. They are not at school and many are unemployed,” he says.
While Mmutlwatse remains optimistic, his community still needs some convincing.
Twenty six kilometres away in Soweto, Happy Phiri, a reformed convict turned entrepreneur, is satisfied with the progress the government has made so far.
“I could not miss this one because I value voting. It’s something many South Africans were denied for many years. I spent 14 years in prison and the time spent there robbed me of certain things, including voting,” says Phiri.
Phiri, a 48-year-old father of three, was up at 3AM, two hours earlier than usual to make sure he didn’t miss casting his vote before he went to his workshop where he manufactures candles. On this day, he had an order for a hundred candles for a Mother’s Day event at a local church.
Phiri turned his life around when he joined the non-governmental organization NICRO while incarcerated. He left Mangaung Prison in 2010, trained as a candle maker.
With three years in business, Phiri has employed three people and bought a delivery van and equipment worth almost R100,000 ($9,600).
Bekkersdal’s very own Arab Spring will not die as the elections end; a politician just has to take a stroll through the run-down streets to realize this.
<h4>Red Berets And Tears</h4>
It was a record turnout for a South African election. More than 18 million voted in a poll on May 7 that threw up more than a few surprises.
It was one of those rare elections where the big story was not how much the ruling party gained, but how much it lost. The result was never in doubt, neither was the protest vote that hundreds of thousands of disgruntled South Africans cast.
In the end, the African National Congress (ANC) stormed home losing a lot less support than many of their supporters feared. It leaves the ruling party short of the two thirds majority, which gives it greater parliamentary powers, but it virtually assures control of South Africa until at least 2019, maybe beyond. It also assures that economic policy is likely to remain with few radical measures required to recover disgruntled supporters. The word among party insiders at the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) in Pretoria – the election nerve center – was that, if anything, government policy is likely to move more in favor of the free market as the money men around the world appear to have said all bets are off if there is a threat of socialism and nationalization.
Both are flaunted, like battle flags, by the young turks of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). In many ways, the EFF was the story of this election. The party was formed in October, when red bereted leader, Julius Malema, a disgruntled and belligerent former ANC loyalist, decided to give his old employers one in the eye. The idea was to take the high moral ground of socialism and power to the people that helped sweep the ANC to power in the first elections 20 years ago. It appears to have worked for the EFF, who, from a standing start gathered more than a million votes. It means Malema and 24 red bereted new menbers will sit in Parliament in Cape Town this year. It may spice up proceedings.
But the EFF may take heed of a cautionary tale from another opposition party, COPE. In 2009, COPE, also peopled by disgruntled former ANC members, garnered a stunning 1.3 million votes in its first tilt at the polls. This year, COPE got a mere 100,000 votes, less than 1%. Will EFF be able to cope in 2019?
“This isn’t the end of COPE,” says spokesman Johann Abrie. Really?
Agang – the party founded by Mamphela Ramphele and promising a new tomorrow – may rue its decision to fight the polls. It was humbled and ended up with two lousy seats.
The Democratic Alliance, taking years to shrug off its image as a white middle-class party, made more solid gains.
“We gain 3% every time around, then we cry for five years and try again,” says a DA loyalist.
That means maybe our grandchildren will witness the inauguration of the first DA president of South Africa. In a decade, or two, of power the DA too could be criticized by voters for being an out-of-touch incumbent that thinks it owns the country. Maybe?
The path of democracy was far from smooth in South Africa. There were threats and arrests in Alexandra, in Johannesburg, after fighting between rival parties. Voters in the tiny farming town of Tzaneen, in Limpopo, stormed  a voting station and damaged it. Two people were shot, one dead, in KwaZulu Natal.
Elsewhere, a ballot box was found dumped on a roadside and a school storing ballot papers was broken into. These will be investigated by the IEC as it prepares for the 2019 election.
“These remain isolated incidents that we are taking very seriously. We can all agree the process is going well and we can be proud of our nation and our democracy,” says Pansy Tlakula, the head of the IEC.

Tag: Election

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