The number of annual prostate cancer diagnoses is expected to roughly double by 2040, according to a study published Thursday in The Lancet medical journal, with the number of annual deaths attributable to the disease expected to rise by 85% in the same amount of time—an increase driven by lower-income countries.
KEY FACTS
Scientists at the London Institute of Cancer Research predict there will be 2.9 million annual cases of prostate cancer around the world by 2040, more than twice as many as the 1.4 million cases seen in 2020, with the increase expected to be most prominent among men in low- and middle-income countries.
Subsequently, researchers estimate deaths due to the disease will rise to almost 700,000 per year in 2040, up from the 375,000 in 2020.
While prostate cancer deaths have declined in most high-income countries over the last 30 years, mortality rates and the number of cases continue to rise in low- and middle-income countries, particularly those without access to early blood detection screening called PSA testing.
The study suggests that even in high-income countries, men at high risk—like those with family history, those of African descent and those with the BRACA2 gene mutation—be screened for the cancer early using PSA testing and MRI scans.
Researchers warn lifestyle changes and public health interventions will do little to stop the rise in cases as the main risk factors for the disease—being a man over 50 and having a family history of prostate cancer—are unavoidable.
CRUCIAL QUOTE
“As more and more men around the world live to middle and old age, there will be an inevitable rise in the number of prostate cancer cases,” lead author Dr. Nick James said in a statement. “We know this surge in cases is coming, so we need to start planning and take action now.”
KEY BACKGROUND
Prostate cancer is already responsible for 15% of all male cancers, and is the most common form of cancer in men in more than half of countries around the world, the Lancet study said. It is possible for women to be diagnosed with prostate cancer, but studies have suggested as few as 0.003% of cases are found in women. There is no cure for metastatic prostate cancer, but many cases are treatable and, if discovered early, it’s not uncommon for patients to outlive the disease. Those diagnosed within the first three stages are likely to be cancer-free after five years, according to John Hopkins Medicine, but there is little that can be medically done for the cancer in late stage. Johns Hopkins estimates 80 to 85% of all prostate cancers are found early, but cases found late have an average five-year survival rate of only 28%. Because of the importance of early detection, countries with less access to screenings have a higher rate of prostate cancer and deaths among residents. While prostate cancer rates are highest in countries including Ireland, Sweden and France, deaths rates from the disease are highest in the lower-income and predominantly Black nations of Zimbabwe, Barbados, Haiti and Zambia, according to the World Cancer Research Fund. Most prostate cancer research, however, is done on white men, the Lancet study reports, while also placing an emphasis on the need for more research involving patients of different ethnicities, especially those of West African descent.
TANGENT
A number of high-profile celebrities have publicly shared their journeys with prostate cancer. British actor Sir Ian McKellen, now 84, said he was given an early stage prostate cancer diagnosis in 2005 or 2006. Robert De Niro, now 80, was diagnosed with prostate cancer in 2003 at age 60 and went on to make a full recovery. Other public figures who’ve shared their diagnosis include former Secretary of State John Kerry, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, actor Ben Stiller and billionaire Warren Buffet. Buckingham Palace has confirmed that King Charles of England does not have prostate cancer, but has not shared what type of cancer he was diagnosed with earlier this year. The health discovery came after the monarch was treated for an enlarged prostate. His daughter-in-law and the future Queen, Kate Middleton, also shared she has been diagnosed with cancer, but did not specify a type.