As a fellow human being, I hated watching President Robert Mugabe shuffle to the umpteenth world stage for his umpteenth appearance in his 94th year. It seemed to take an age for the ruler of Zimbabwe, for more than 37 years, to struggle to his seat; it looked painful.
In my mind was the President Mugabe, then 72, who bristled physically and verbally in a tough interview I held him to at State House, in Harare, in 1994, when Zimbabwe had a thriving  economy. On that long sunny autumn day he had the clipped eloquence and mental agility of a university professor. Even as an open-minded new arrival, it was clear he was spinning his answers to questions about the economy and opposition, but at least he did it with polish and a dash of mischief.
“Who told you that?” he asked professorially whenever I caught him out.
<div id="attachment_31381" style="width: 1034px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-31381" class="wp-image-31381 size-large" src="http://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/GettyImages-631829258-1024x683.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="683" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/GettyImages-631829258.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/GettyImages-631829258-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/GettyImages-631829258-600x400.jpg 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/GettyImages-631829258-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" />US actor Forest Whitaker (R) delivers a speech, flanked by Chairperson of the Schwab Foundation Hilde Schwab, during the Crystal Award ceremony on the eve of the opening day of the World Economic Forum, on January 16, 2017 in Davos.</div>
For a moment forget the criticism surrounding Mugabe; here was an elder of Africa, who spent 10 years in prison, dropping off now and again, before a thin crowd at WEF Africa on an early panel on fragile states.
First question: did he consider troubled Zimbabwe a fragile state? Mugabe mentioned his country’s vast resources, 14 universities and a 90% literacy rate.
“Zimbabwe is one of the most highly developed countries in Africa… We are not a poor country, you can’t call us fragile, I can call America a fragile state,” says Mugabe to chuckles from the audience.
“And yet my people back home are crying!” says one of the hundreds of Zimbabweans working in Johannesburg’s petrol stations when we discussed the story a few days later.
Mugabe blamed rival political groups for conflict in his country and had sharp words for Islamic states.
“If you look into the Islamic world and talk about Isis and various other groups, it will appear the belief is the more violence you inflict on the population the greater the people will listen to you and join your side. That is a dangerous one and I do not know how it is still to be remedied.”
At the other end of the age spectrum was idealistic fellow panellist 35-year-old Victor Ochen, the youngest African nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. The former cobbler and charcoal burner grew up amid war in Lira, in northern Uganda, a fiefdom of the rebel Lord’s Resistance Army.  In FORBES AFRICA, in April 2015, the year he was nominated, Ochen told us how he wept and threw stones at soldiers as they tore up charcoal beds that he hoped were going to pay for his education. The shocked guerrillas let him live to speak truth to power at WEF Africa 2017.
“When young people complain it is called a protest; when leaders speak it is called an excuse,” he says.
<div id="attachment_31380" style="width: 1034px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-31380" class="wp-image-31380 size-large" src="http://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/HMcClintock_VU0D13181-1024x682.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="682" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/HMcClintock_VU0D13181.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/HMcClintock_VU0D13181-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/HMcClintock_VU0D13181-600x400.jpg 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/HMcClintock_VU0D13181-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" />Victor Ochen</div>
“Every year, hundreds of Africans die in the Mediterranean Sea trying to escape Africa. Why do they leave, what is wrong? It is because of the lack of integrity of power.”
Sharing the stage was Hollywood star Forest Whitaker, a UNESCO Special Envoy for Peace and Reconciliation,  who played former Uganda President Idi Amin in the 2006 film The Last King of Scotland. Unlike other Hollywood stars, he helps African children on the ground, rather than adopt them.
“The people of South Sudan are resilient, they want to stay in their country, they don’t want to leave but they are forced to leave their crops because of the conflict.”
Whitaker, born in Texas and bred in California, has been working quietly in the dust of warring South Sudan where 50,000 have been killed and more than half the people have no food. No one knows him there, he says, which helps in his work. This includes helping child soldiers lay down their weapons, giving them a sense of purpose, by teaching them how to deal with conflict instead of perpetuating it.
“The youth are now negotiating conflicts in their communities. They are dealing with everything from negotiating with the army to stolen cattle,” says Whitaker.
Many African leaders could do well to listen to the passionate voices of Ochen and Whitaker.

Robert Gabriel Mugabe

The Pain Of Mugabe

As if Zimbabwe doesn’t have enough problems, in October the government will try what could be an ill-fated experiment of printing so-called bond notes.
It’s a reaction to the shortage of US dollars that have been legal tender in Zimbabwe since the Zimbabwean dollar disappeared. The shortage is so bad the banks are trying to ration dollars.
“I can only withdraw US$100 a day and that’s if I’m lucky. I have to wake up very early in the morning to queue, otherwise there will be no money in the ATM. If I come late I can find even 60 or so people queuing,” says Tukudzwa Mutasa, who lives in Harare.
The southern African country has been unlucky, to say the least, when it comes to currency. It printed its way into hyperinflation and even introduced bearer cheques that carried and outlived their expiry date. In 2008, it suffered catastrophic hyperinflation and even had a one hundred trillion dollar bill which could be exchanged for US$0.40. Almost 10 years later, it is worth more as a souvenir on eBay, where you can buy it for US$70.
This all led to the Zimbabwean dollar being ditched and the country adopting up to nine currencies from other countries.
The US dollar is king in Zimbabwe. In 2009, 49% of people used the US dollar, 49% used the rand and 2% used other currencies. In 2016, 95% of people use the US dollar.
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) says the stronger US dollar is encouraging traders to take the currency out of the country.
“I can’t take the rand because it is weak. I buy the things I sell in South Africa and have to factor in costs, so I would rather sell in US dollars so that I make a little bit of profit otherwise I would be wasting my time,” says informal trader Chipo Dungare, in Harare.
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Into the mix, in October, come piles upon piles of what many see as worthless paper. Zimbabwe will use the gold standard, which is a monetary system where a country’s currency or paper money has a value directly backed by gold, to print its own version of the US dollar, called bond notes. There is a guarantee of US$200 million by the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) to back the bond notes. The scheme will also reward people bringing foreign currency to the country with a 5% incentive on all foreign exchange receipts.
Reserve Bank Governor, John Mangudya, says the bond notes, like the US dollar, will come in $2, $5, $10 and $20 dominations. This is unlikely to convince people to use it.
“This is a shakedown; casino economy presided over by dangerous clowns who don’t see beyond today. How can you explain repeating a failed experiment of 2008 of printing dollar signs and figures on bond paper and declare that as currency? Really? Do these people learn at all?” asks political economist, Maxwell Saungweme.
“This is the return of the Zimbabwean dollar by another name. It won’t work. It will crash on day one,” says a Harare-based analyst who chose to remain anonymous for fear of victimization.
Former Finance Minister, Tendai Biti, called citizens to anger.
“The return of the Zimbabwean dollar marks the gross admission by this regime that it has failed, and failed in absolute terms, and that it will drag everyone along in the plunge to abyss that now awaits this economy. It is a cynical, disrespectful and contemptuous move that has absolutely no logic, sense or justification on any rational ground whatsoever,” writes Biti on his Facebook page.
“Zimbabwe is effectively a supermarket economy consuming goods produced in other countries. In 2014, its exports were US$3.7 billion against imports of US$6.3 billion. 2015 was no better; exports were $3.2 billion against imports of US$6.03 billion.”
Promise Mkwananzi, Director of Zimbabwe Informal Sector’s Organisation, says this policy reveals confusion.
“The tragic result is that there is already panic and despondency in the country. This will cause an unprecedented decline in FDIs already at its all-time low. This will see the Zimbabwean economy continuing to suffer,” he says.
But the people running Zimbabwe believe there is no problem.
“The bond notes are coming no matter what because we are trying to solve a problem here. The media exaggerates what is going on here in Zimbabwe. They talk about protests but I don’t even know what they are talking about. It’s always business as usual here and often I have to see in the news that there was a protest,” says spokesperson of the office of the president, George Charamba.
Along with the RBZ and the government, the Employers’ Confederation of Zimbabwe (EMCOZ) is behind the bond notes, but it has reservations.
“The consultations before the announcement, if any, were less than inclusive and the confusion and fear that was created could have been anticipated and, to a large degree, reduced if not avoided. It would have given business the necessary confidence if it had also been announced whether this is a short, medium-term or long-term measure and the fate of the bond notes once they have served their purpose,” says EMCOZ president Josephat Kahwema.
What is certain is that in October the banks will be full of freshly printed paper. You’ll know for sure whether it’s worthless when you go to spend it.

Starting a  bon(d)fire

A few months ago, he was a lone voice in the wilderness, now he is an international figure. Days after his acquittal in court, he has a campaign manager and his personal assistant tells me that for now he is not taking any calls. I speak to him in Johannesburg days later.
“I have not spoken to my parents yet due to security concerns for them. But, I know they have been praying for me. My wife was there throughout the whole court proceedings from morning to evening, fully pregnant. She is an amazing woman, I tell you,” he tells me from Johannesburg, in a visit that might last longer than his supporters want.
Evan Mawarire shot to international recognition on July 12, the day he presented himself to the police with a bible in hand and his flag around his neck. The country’s police had summoned him over a missing police helmet, a baton and suspicion of possessing subversive material.
“As we entered the cold, dark and smelly cell popularly known as ‘Baghdad’, I couldn’t help notice the brotherliness amongst the group inmates. They laughed, hit high fives and exchanged stories on what had landed them in for the first time or yet again. Nearly all the young men in the cell with me that night told me truth of their offenses. The one guy said to me ‘I deserve this and my desire is to stop stealing but I can’t boss, I don’t have a job’. Later that evening we shared some of my food that had been brought to me and he took it upon himself to ask anyone in the cell who had more than two blankets to give me one. I’ll be honest I’ve made a lot of friends in my lifetime, but that day in that cell I made some truly special friends. I met some real genuine Zimbabwean men,” says Mawarire.
The man of the cloth, who now had a blanket, was to also face charges of trying to topple his government. It all ended in acquittal and cheers at the Rotten Row magistrate’s court in Harare.
He is not the first to face such charges: Morgan Tsvangirai, Dumiso Dabengwa, Lookout Masuku and Ndabaningi Sithole, all opposition politicians, have been similarly accused down the years.
Mawarire’s crime: filming himself, using his mobile phone, complaining about his country’s malaise. The government’s only evidence, as they dragged him to court, was his posts on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube. This is the story of Mawarire and his hashtag campaign #ThisFlag. In Zimbabwe, it’s risky to say the least.
Mawarire rallies hundreds of thousands of demonstrating ex-patriate Zimbabweans from Harare to London, Washington, Johannesburg and Melbourne. His words appear powerful enough to persuade citizens to shut down the country; on July 6, this turned Bulawayo and Harare into ghost towns.
On Sundays, he preaches to a congregation of 70, outside church, his sermons about politics, economy and corruption reach tens of thousands over the internet. His campaign is so powerful that the government is contemplating banning social media.
“This campaign is unique as it’s not led by politicians; it’s a campaign by ordinary citizens. We are calling for citizens to act now and act urgently, we are not going to be silenced and intimidated by the government. The call is for our government to account for and address corruption, injustice and poverty,” he says.
Mawarire, married with two children, grew up in Mazowe, 40 kilometers north of Harare, in a family of six. He studied at one of the country’s top schools, Prince Edward in Harare, before his father brought him back to the village. At 16, he was chosen as Zimbabwe’s first child president from the country’s schools.
Twenty three years later, Mawarire’s country is mired in poverty while the elite earn vast salaries; he claims billions have been lost to corruption. His campaign emerged out of frustration over scraping together school fees.
“We are completely unhappy with the situation, we have graduates who are vendors, our pensioners struggle to get their $80 out of their banks, and our best hospital goes for days without water that patients are now being asked to bring their own water,” he says.
Speaking out carries a heavy price.
“I’m definitely worried of re-arrest and I know they are trying to take me. I see danger and I fear for my life but I am more afraid of failing to explain to my children for having done nothing. Recently somebody called me and threatened to strangle me with the flag. Two government ministers have attacked me personally on social media. They are not used to citizens rising up and speaking to them.”
Jonathan Moyo, an opponent and minister in President Robert Mugabe’s cabinet, tweeted that US ambassador, Harry K. Thomas Jr, launched #ThisFlag at his residency. Mawarire and the US embassy deny this.
“The gap between real politics and cyber politics in Zimbabwe is so huge that one does not influence the other. Local politics remains the paradigm,” tweeted Moyo.
After Mawarire shut down the country Moyo had more to say.
“The notion that anyone can build Zimbabwe by shutting it down is an oxymoron,” Moyo tweeted.
“Moyo is trying to discredit the campaign by likening it to the Arab Spring. In all of my posts I made a call against violence; I know our government is well equipped to dealing with such kinds of resistance. They have accused us of being funded by the Americans, which is laughable and an indication of desperation,” says Mawarire.
#ThisFlag has shades of Baba Jukwa, the anonymous social media dissident that gave Mugabe and Zanu-PF headaches, so much so that a $300,000-reward was put on his or her head.
“I am not hiding like Baba Jukwa, I am not outside the country, people know where I live, and they know my salary.”
Editor of the Zimbabwe Independent and Chief Content Officer of Alpha Media Holdings, Dumisani Muleya, says Mawarire has rattled Mugabe’s government.
“It’s a defiance or anti-Mugabe regime campaign to rally people to fight the damaging leadership and policy failures of this government which have reduced Zimbabwe to ruins, hence panic by Zanu-PF ideologues to launch a counter. The regime is very afraid, anything can spark off an Arab Spring-like spontaneous uprising due to the explosive conditions on the ground,” says Muleya.
Bruce Mutsvairo, a social media researcher based at Northumbria University in Newcastle, England, says Africa has seen many campaigns of this nature.
“The problem is, in spite of their good intentions, most of these campaigns fall victim to clicktivism, that is to say, many people think by clicking a page, signing an online petition or producing a video on YouTube, they will achieve political change. Mawarire is encouraging a new generation of activists and citizens to speak up and that’s a good thing. But then you need someone to listen, otherwise it’s like fighting a losing battle.”
Mawarire’s campaign has seen him engaging officials, such as reserve bank governor, John Mangudya, in a bid to stop the introduction of bond notes, the first step to giving Zimbabwe back its currency. Mutsvairo believes more of that is needed if the clergyman’s campaign is to be successful.
“The real challenge is to transform remarkable online initiatives such his into offline political engagements,” he says. “No one had expected the reserve bank governor to listen to Mawarire and crew so that was quite an achievement but will he listen to Mawarire at all? Also, is anyone in Zanu-PF willing to engage Mawarire? Zanu-PF officials know the majority of people commenting online do not vote. They focus on the rural folk, most of whom have no idea who Mawarire is.”
That won’t stop Mawarire who wants to continue saying it loud and proud even if he risks going back to Bagdhad.

Say It Loud, Proud And At the Risk Of Ending Up In Baghdad

It’s a 542-kilometer drive from Johannesburg to Beitbridge. As we arrive the sun is shining its warm golden light over the bridge connecting South Africa and Zimbabwe. There are no birds chirping over the Limpopo River. It seems like a peaceful morning, until you get closer.
There is pandemonium as hundreds of cars line up to be stripped and searched before proceeding into Zimbabwe. A journey to Harare is delayed by at least three hours. President Robert Mugabe’s government has banned the importation of basic goods from South Africa. All banned goods are confiscated.
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Priscilla Ngwenya is a woman in the autumn of her life. She has brown wrinkly skin, dull brown eyes and a jutting jawline that makes her look tired of suffering. On this day, she says she has endured pain and penury working for her grandchildren at home in Zimbabwe. She is not about to let anyone else gain from her sweat, nor her liters of cooking oil that she is trying to import.
“I will not work for the police. I work too hard for you to take food I bought for my family for yourselves. If I can’t get this to my hungry grandchildren, then no one else will have it,” she says as she pours 20 liters of cooking oil onto the street that she carried 2,000 kilometers from her job as a domestic worker in Cape Town.
Zimbabwe’s Ministry of Industry and Commerce banned basic imports of goods, such as cooking oil, coffee creamers, hair extensions, body creams, building material, furniture, baked beans, cereals, peanut butter, jams and mayonnaise. It is all part of a “Buy Zimbabwe” campaign that government hopes will see factories built in its land.
With millions worth of goods going into Zimbabwe, South Africa is the largest importer to the country and the biggest trading partner.
“[The ban] is a desperate move by Zimbabwe, to try and preserve their currency and to stimulate internal trade, however [it is] not viable as no local company can provide the basic consumer goods that South Africa offers,” says Ian Cruickshanks, Chief Economist at the Institute of Race Relations.
“This government is very stupid. We buy from South Africa because it is cheaper and it’s the only way for us to survive. Buying anything made in Zimbabwe is very expensive. The rands I earn can’t support my family,” Ngwenya screams throwing the empty bucket on the ground at Beitbridge.
The ban on imports has irked many like Ngwenya. Next to her is a man breaking the plastic electrical conduits he isn’t allowed to take across the border.
Just days before, traders burned a warehouse, where the confiscated goods were held, and barricaded the roads with rocks and burning tyres, forcing the closure of the border, believed to be the first time in history.
“I buy goods in South Africa and sell them here in a small shop in Bulawayo. That’s the way I have been surviving and keeping my family afloat. I used to be a teacher but I couldn’t deal with the lack of payments by government and I decided to get into business,” says Prudence Dube.
Tuleka Ngci, of GoAfrica, who has been transporting goods from South Africa to Malawi since December, says business has been slow after traders blocked the Beitbridge border. Ngci transports goods such as groceries, fruit and vegetables from South Africa through the Zimbabwean border to Malawi every week.
“If we can’t pass through the border to buy goods then that means there’s no business for us. Customers blame us for what is happening in Zimbabwe and as a result we find ourselves in the middle of a crossfire we don’t even understand,” says Ngci.
“The restriction against imported goods is threatening the livelihood of people and when people are hungry they get angry. And in this case who knows who they’ll take out their anger on.”
According to Dube, many Zimbabweans turn to smuggling.
“My business is registered, I pay duty for the goods I buy, and I employ six people. If this ban is not lifted, I will have to go the smuggling route like most informal traders in the country. That will be a disadvantage to government. I don’t think they thought this through and looked at how we would be affected,” she says.
Smuggling goods in open sight seems easy enough to do. At the border, some authorities are not shy to take bribes. We carried a two-liter cooking oil bottle to test the system. The man doing the checks told us cooking oil could no longer be imported into the country before asking for a bribe to let us through.
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“I have a lot of friends who never pay anything. The officials are also hungry so they just pocket whatever they can get from people,” says Dube.
Most small businesses smuggle goods with the help of transporters like Bongani Sibanda.
“Because of the economic situation in Zimbabwe, smuggling is an everyday thing and we see ourselves as business people providing a service. I carry groceries, and whatever else people send from South Africa to Zimbabwe, twice a week. As long as it is not drugs or any illegal goods I see myself as helping people,” he says.
Sibanda says the ban will affect his “business”. More bribes mean higher fees.
“It will also bring in more business to us because those who cross the border to stock up themselves may be afraid to smuggle things so they will commission us,” he says.
Sibanda worked at a shoe factory in Bulawayo for 15 years before being thrown out by the factory closure. He now makes around $2,500 a month, enough to send his daughter to university in South Africa.
Sibanda may be making a buck, but the Zimbabwean economy isn’t.
According to media, the Chief Executive Officer of the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce, Christopher Mugaga, estimates Zimbabwe could be losing $1.5 billion every year through smuggling of goods. The figure is more than one third of the country’s $4 billion national budget. Local industries have closed shop as their products fail to compete with the cheap smuggled products, cutting 100,000 jobs over the last five years. The government is said to make $60 million per month from duties charged at Beitbridge.
At the Beitbridge border post, Zimbabwe Revenue Authority (ZIMRA) Acting Commissioner General, Happias Kuzvinzwa, in a statement, has urged members of staff to desist from corruption.
“It is time to wipe away corruption! We must all know that we are accountable to the nation and seriously consider our duty as custodians of revenue laws in this country,” he says.
He says ZIMRA will intensify lifestyle audits to decrease numbers of goods smuggled into the country.
As we drive off, it seems trouble and smuggling at the border will not go away anytime soon.

The Border On A Slow Road To Nowhere

Let them be gay in the US, Europe and elsewhere, they will be sad people here,” so says President Robert Mugabe at the roadside in Harare in the eye of his anti-gay storm in the winter of 1995.
I cast my mind back to these words when I heard President Barack Obama talk of an end to discrimination against gays in Africa, during his visit to Kenya 20 years later. I cast my mind forward to the look on Mugabe’s face when Obama said this. In those desperate August days of 1995, people railed against homosexuality saying it was un-African and another disease visited upon the continent by Europeans. We investigated and the answer – politely put – is that this is nonsense.
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The big man in Zimbabwe had been on a roll for weeks. The rant at the roadside, just outside government offices in Samora Machel Avenue, to members of the Zanu-PF women’s league, was vintage Mugabe. We heard late on that cold day, August 18, that he was making the roadside speech and rushed to set up our camera. Mugabe, the consummate orator, spoke his mother tongue, chiShona, keeping a weather eye on our crew. As soon as the cameraman had stopped fumbling and looked down the lens, Mugabe switched seamlessly into English to tell the world gay people would be sad people in Zimbabwe.
“It degrades human dignity. It’s unnatural, and there is no question ever of allowing these people to behave worse than dogs and pigs. If dogs and pigs do not do it, why must human beings?” says Mugabe –a few days earlier.
Mugabe had shocked the world with a maiden and an astounding and caustic attack on gays, in his speech to open the Zimbabwe International Book Fair. Now, the book fair was always supposed to be the celebration of reading, erudition and light. In 1995, it was the dim, murky power of brute force that ruled the day.
The Gays and Lesbians of Zimbabwe (GALZ) bore the brunt of it. All they asked for was a stand on which to display their books. The government said no and threatened to withdraw support and the organizers acquiesced and GALZ members were vilified.
“If we accept homosexuality as a right, as is being argued by the association of sodomists and sexual perverts, what moral fiber shall our society ever have to deny organized drug addicts, or even those given to bestiality,” says Mugabe at the opening of the fair. On the way out of the opening I asked Mugabe what his problem was.
“I do not think men should give birth by having wombs,” he replied, surely the answer to another question? It struck us as an obsession too far.
On that night, we ran a TV news item on two black men living in Harare as man and wife. It included a goodbye kiss in the morning that sent shockwaves over the airwaves. Both knew they were risking their lives in telling their story.
If they were in any doubt; the following year, GALZ got its stand at the book fair. A mob burned it down hurling abuse and threats, under the cynical eye of police, at the brave people who tried to run it.
This was a story that reached far beyond the chattering classes. I got to interview a lot of the activists in GALZ over these months and grew to respect them; many working class black lesbians and gays went through hell in the townships far from the middle class book fair. Thugs carried out assaults and burned down houses; families ordered men to rape their daughters in a bid to “convert” them. Even against the background of plummeting human rights in Zimbabwe, it stank to high heaven.
We journalists wondered how a people who had fought against the deprivation of human rights could so easily wipe out the rights of brothers and sisters.
I will never forget the unflinching dignity of those Africans who stood up against it. It is just a shame that so many Africans across the continent are still being forced to do so.

“I Do Not Think Men Should Give Birth By Having Wombs”

On February 21, President Robert Gabriel Mugabe will be 91. He has ruled Zimbabwe for 34 years making him the only leader the country has ever known and the oldest president in the world. The question grows by the day, who will run the country next?
It has been a poor few months for the aging Mugabe. He shocked delegates at the December party congress when for the first time he mistakenly uttered a slogan against his party – Pasi neZanu-PF (down with Zanu-PF).
Prior to that, he had also told a meeting that his foe and MDC-T leader Morgan Tsvangirai had won the 2008 polls by 73%. He had to be corrected on both occasions by his close aides.
Political analyst Rashweat Mukundu says his wife Grace Mugabe, has become the de-facto Prime Minister capitalizing on her husband’s failing health.
“There is uncertainty and concern on the future of Zimbabwe as President Mugabe brutally suppresses any talk of succession and this has stalled policy clarity as no one is sure of the future. The economy has thus suffered hugely from the uncertainty and the intense focus on succession and power issues instead of service delivery and the economy,” says Mukundu.
The wheels started turning on December 9 when guerrilla fighter-turned leader Joice Mujuru, long viewed as a front runner in Zimbabwe’s succession race, was booted by Mugabe as Vice President.
On December 10, Mugabe appointed Minister of Justice Emmerson Mnangagwa his First Vice President and Phelekezela Mphoko, former Ambassador to South Africa, the Second Vice President. He has been dismissed as an also ran in Zimbabwe’s politics of succession.
Mnangagwa took over from Mujuru with help from the First Lady.
Grace is evidently an admirer of Mnangagwa or sees him as a weapon to fight her battles with the former Vice President.
Grace was known for her lavish lifestyle and poor academic performance in the months leading up to the December congress. She recently obtained a PhD from University of Zimbabwe, a doctorate she allegedly never studied for.
With others, she accused Mujuru of plotting to assassinate her husband, in a bid for power. Mujuru, a party loyalist, denies this.
The congress, that endorsed Mugabe as the party’s candidate for the 2018 elections, was castigated by former political heavyweights, like former Zanu-PF spokesperson Rugare Gumbo, as a ‘praise and worship’ function rather than an elective congress. Mugabe is without doubt losing control and it appears his wife is taking control.
Obert Hodzi, a Zimbabwean security researcher based in Hong Kong, sees striking similarities between Mugabe’s last days and that of China’s Chairman Mao.
“When Mao became very old and frail, his wife Jiang Qing and her close associates, Zhang Chunqiao, Yao Wenyuan and Wang Hongwen, created their own center of power preparing to take over when Mao dies. They carried out extensive purges and executions of anyone perceived to be would-be successors,” he says.
“This is exactly what we are seeing in Zimbabwe. We are likely to see the dominance of Grace and her associates for a while and even after Mugabe’s demise.”
According to the Zimbabwean constitution (Amendment No.20 of 2013, the Sixth Schedule, section 14 (4) if the president dies, resigns or is removed from office – (a) the Vice President or, where there are two Vice Presidents, the Vice President who was last nominated to act in terms of the Constitution – acts as President until a new President assumes offices; and the vacancy in the office of the President must be filled by a nominee of the political party which the President represented when he or she stood for election. A political party which is entitled to nominate a person in terms of subparagraph (4) (b) must notify the Speaker of the nominee’s name within ninety days after the vacancy occurred.
Dewa Mavhinga, lawyer and senior researcher for Zimbabwe and Southern Africa at Human Rights Watch, says that section 101 of the Constitution, which says that the Vice President takes over to finish the term of office, does not apply in this case as the Sixth Schedule supercedes section 101. Under this section, the political party nominates and notifies the Speaker of the nominee who takes oath of office to finish the term.
“His party Zanu-PF will nominate a successor, so it means succession is not automatic for VPs and could trigger chaos and instability given that the leadership of Zimbabwe security forces is highly politicized and partisan and could take sides in the succession disputes,” says Mavhinga.
Mavhinga says if securocrats prefer someone other than the First Vice President, the dynamics could tilt dramatically. Whoever takes over must purge more of Mujuru’s sympathizers in parliament and garner support in both the politburo and central committee.
Mnangagwa, a less charismatic leader than Mujuru, could stand against the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader in the 2018 elections should Mugabe, who would then be 94, fail to run as the party’s candidate. Morgan Tsvangirai’s opposition MDC party says they are poised to win the next elections. This would mean Mnangagwa’s long-held ambitions could slip through his fingers.
“All indicators are pointing to a resounding victory of Morgan Tsvangirai and the MDC-T provided the elections are free and fair,” says MDC party spokesperson Obert Gutu.
“We are taking very far-reaching steps to ensure that the next elections in Zimbabwe will be held in a free and fair environment that will produce a legitimate and uncontested outcome. For strategic reasons, I am not at liberty to disclose our game plan, suffice to state that the Zanu-PF regime will not be allowed to have its cake and eat it.”
You could argue Zanu-PF had its cake and ate it for nearly 35 years. Food is at stake in the fight. Whoever takes over needs to drag Zimbabwe back to the long-lost position as the breadbasket of Africa.
A grim power struggle will play out first before the green shoots of maize can even be thought of.

By The Grace Of Bob

Last year, in the shadows of the Zimbabwean elections were whispers of a man who took risks by challenging people to question Robert Mugabe’s 26 years of power. At the click of his mouse he passed out classified information that spread like wild fire. They call him Baba Jukwa.
Jukwa, who calls himself a disgruntled Zanu-PF insider, agreed to an interview with FORBES LIFE AFRICA via Facebook to protect his identity. He has one clear mission: To see Zimbabwe rise to its former glory.
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“Zimbabwe is falling, but its people are not, and these same people shall lift it up as they express themselves through the spirit of freedom… But I will tell you without mincing words, even Mugabe himself is possessed by this same spirit of freedom, only that he suppresses it daily,” he says.
Jukwa’s posts included a prediction of a former Zanu-PF member of parliament, Edward Chindori-Chininga’s death, who died in a car accident after revealing corruption in the diamond sector. Jukwa also posted the HIV statuses of Zanu-PF politicians.
In November, reports accused Jukwa of being Zimbabwe’s information minister Jonathan Moyo. Others believe Jukwa is more than one person because the blogs betray a number of writing styles. Whoever it is, they are certainly an insider.
“I have over the past 33 years worked in a place where everything is naked and bare, so it is not uncommon at all for me to know everything and anything.”
Jukwa says he has no fear because he is a dead man already. All he wants is for the country to be free.
“On that day, when the people have finally freed themselves from the chains of oppression and once again Zimbabwe is a shining nation as the ancestors would have had it, it shall be a great day of celebration, mark my words.”
Across the Atlantic lives a social media guru who could be considered Jukwa’s brother in arms. At least he is unafraid to use his own name. Dressed in torn jeans, a t-shirt and sneakers, he looks like an average Joe. His red beard and large earrings may be the reason you give him a second look, but there is more to him than meets the eye.
In 2011, Harper Reed took the job of technology chief for Barak Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign. His job was to gather voters with the use of social media. The strategy was a gem and Obama made history again, this time for becoming the first president to be re-elected with the help of his social media campaign.
Although Reed was working for one of the most powerful people in the world, it was not enough to get him into a suit and tie.
“This one time [Obama] walked out of the office on the campaign and walked up to my buddy Dillan and I and the first thing he said to us was, ‘Ah, you guys must be the tech team.’ I think it was our beards that gave us away.”
Flushed with the success of Obama’s re-election campaign, could Reed consult in the tricky politics of Africa?
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-medium wp-image-31291 alignleft" src="http://www.forbesafrica.com/app/uploads/2017/05/2011-10-23-22.29.00-300x300.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="300" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/2011-10-23-22.29.00-300x300.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/2011-10-23-22.29.00-100x100.jpg 100w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/2011-10-23-22.29.00-600x600.jpg 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/2011-10-23-22.29.00-150x150.jpg 150w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/2011-10-23-22.29.00.jpg 640w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />
“Probably not. For me, if I really supported the person, then yes. The thing is, you must do this because you want to do it and not because you want money. Because it’s politics, you have to treat it that way,” he says.
Reed says it is important to fight media censorship. He speaks of the importance of a transparent government to avoid having the same people in power over and over again.
“In my time in South Africa, I talked to a lot of people about politics and there was this fear of continuation of a single government for a long time without change… If people feel like it really matters to them, they need to step up and solve the problem.”
Unlike Jukwa, Reed lives in comparative freedom.
“People talk a lot of shit on the internet, as you can imagine. It’s just how it works on the internet. People are mean and they can do crazy things. But for the most part, there’s a lot of work done in the United States to make it so that people don’t feel intimidated. I’ve never felt like I had to hide.”
With elections around the corner for some African countries, perhaps it is time to adopt a word that was significant on Obama’s road to victory. A word both feared and revered: Change.   FL

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Guerilla Bloggers

Old soldiers never die, they merely become security guards.
Zimbabwe’s struggles are epitomized by the life of Themba Moyo (not his real name), a former captain in the Zimbabwe National Army (ZNA) who left the country he served for Johannesburg in 2001. He is one of the estimated 500,000 to three million Zimbabweans who have fled the country since 2000, according to the Global Zimbabwe Forum.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-2951" src="/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Paul-Verryn_6321-1024x716-300x210.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="210" />
Moyo once commanded more than a thousand men, at Inkomo Barracks in Harare, but now works for a security company earning less than $200 a month. His story is one of many untold stories of Zimbabwe’s economic decline.
According to research by the Southern Africa Political Economy Series Trust (SAPES Trust), Zimbabwe has lost 50% of its skilled manpower to neighboring countries and Europe &#8211; journalists, science teachers, doctors, engineers, as well as soldiers.
“Our research established that there are over 100 Zimbabwean lecturers working at universities in Cape Town alone, with an insurance company, Old Mutual, employing over 120 Zimbabweans at senior management level, while the United Kingdom has 10 senior engineers working for its railway sector,” says Ibbo Mandaza, the director of SAPES Trust.
Clad in his navy blue security guard uniform, puffing an almost exhausted cigarette just outside the control room, Moyo clocks on at a student residence in Auckland Park, Johannesburg. When he talks you can see flashes of the professionalism and discipline of a soldier.
Moyo says he signed on as a 25-year soldier, but as Zimbabwe’s troubles worsened he found life unbearable.
“The lifestyle I was now used to started vanishing in my face. I could hardly afford taking my wife and two children shopping as my salary could hardly be stretched beyond basic essentials. When I came here, my expectations were very high, I dreamed of driving a good car, building a nice house and sending my children to better schools than where I studied. It didn’t take me long to realize that my expectations would never materialize. I settled for a more realistic and pragmatic life of starting from the bottom,” he says.
“Now I am working to survive and not to better myself. With my current job, I cannot afford paying school fees for my child’s tertiary education. I only hope that my firstborn son gets a job as soon as he finishes high school. It pains me failing to give my children a better life from what I received from my parents,” says Moyo, fighting back emotion.
Also struggling is Zanele Nyathi, a United College of Education (UCE) graduate now working as a receiving clerk at a hardware shop in downtown Johannesburg.
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“I have considered going back home several times, but it’s not tenable as I am a breadwinner. I take care of my parents, my child and my late sister’s, but eking out a living is a struggle,” says Nyathi.
A teacher by profession, Zanele also joined the great trek south to do a job beneath her training.
South Africa Research Chair in Mobility and Difference, Loren Landau, says migrants are employable, especially in menial jobs, but the remuneration is poor and the risk of abuse great.
Landau says poor economies in Africa can’t retain skills meaning there are more Malawian doctors working in Manchester than in Malawi.
“If you dumped Malawian doctors or other skilled professional back into their country from Manchester, they may well end up farming bananas as the Malawian economy lacks the capacity to employ and fairly remunerate a highly skilled workforce,” says Landau.
“Migrant skilled labor is increasingly becoming more mobile. People will look all over for where they can best use their skills. With restrictions on entry to the [United States], Europe and Australia, many of South Africa’s immigrant professionals may have come here as a second-best choice.”
Landau posits around 4% of South Africa’s 51 million people are migrants.
He notes that developed countries like the United States are harvesting en masse from developing countries’ skilled workforce due to better conditions and prospects of professional growth.
If Moyo’s story is anything to go by, Zimbabwe’s migrant percentage is likely to grow as the country’s struggles could send even more of its people on the beaten track down south.

The Agony Of A Captain  With No Soldier Nor Hope

Contemporary artist Kudzanai Chiurai is no stranger to controversy. When he drew a picture of Robert Mugabe’s face in flames, after the contested results of the 2008 Zimbabwean elections, he received calls asking him everything from who he was to the meaning and message of his artwork. Chiurai is now in self-imposed exile, he hasn’t been home since 2003, when he was 22.
Now, Chiurai lives in an inner-city loft apartment in east Johannesburg. It’s open-plan, except for the bedroom. His clothes are drying on top of tables and chairs, and vinyl music records are stacked up near the lit fireplace. Art and history books line the shelves.
The softly-spoken 32-year-old is reserved but his work speaks volumes. It caught the eye of British singer Elton John, who bought seven photographs from his Black President collection. But the quiet Chiurai doesn’t seem fazed by the hype that surrounded the purchase.
“It is cool. It’s not like I’ll ever meet Elton John. It’s nice that he bought photographs, but it’s nice that some of my friends bought my posters and have been collecting posters that I’ve made,” says Chiurai.
He was thrilled with the invitation to exhibit at the world-famous documenta exhibition in Germany last year.
“It’s an amazing invitation,” says Chiurai.
This was the 13th exhibition since 1955. It only takes place every five years and a mere 100 artists are invited from around the world. Chiurai was invited along with South Africa’s most celebrated artist William Kentridge and Zanele Muholi, a photographer and visual activist.
<div id="attachment_31128" style="width: 210px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-31128" class="size-medium wp-image-31128" src="http://www.forbesafrica.com/app/uploads/2017/05/369-123_1-200x300.jpg" alt="" width="200" height="300" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/369-123_1-200x300.jpg 200w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/369-123_1-300x450.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/369-123_1-600x900.jpg 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/369-123_1-768x1152.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/369-123_1.jpg 683w" sizes="(max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px" />Artist Kudzanai Chiurai  </div>
“It’s huge… If you show at documenta you’re made as an artist,” says Londi Nzimande-Modiko from the Goodman Gallery in Johannesburg.
Chiurai uses different media like posters, sculptures, short films, drawing and paintings in his work.
His latest work, Conflict Resolution, was shown at documenta as well as in Johannesburg. It was a collection that was easier to admire than to describe. It contained posters of his own identification document, another of a half-naked woman wearing nothing but her bra, and another of a log with Chiurai’s own face embedded in it with five machetes wedged into it. Yet another is a poster of him with a flaming tyre around his neck.
His supporters are twenty-somethings; you can spot them at the arty Thesis Social Jam sessions on Sunday afternoons or at exhibitions, music festivals and fashion shows. They wear clothes that your grandmother used to wear paired with anything from Dr. Martens boots to high heels. The men wear fedoras and many of the women have the sides of their heads shaved; there are turbans and pierced noses everywhere in a vibrant crowd that prefers to call the artist “Kudzi”.
It has been a long road for the first black student to graduate with a Bachelor of Fine Arts at the University of Pretoria. His love for art stemmed from primary school, and now he makes a living from it. His cheapest work sold was R200 ($20) and the most expensive went for R200,000 ($20,000).
“It’s sustainable if you work with a good gallery. There is a sense of independence within all institutions. The relationship between [you] and the broker you work with is not always a perfect relationship. We are all sort of part of some institution whether we like it or not,” says Chiurai.
Chiurai is very confident when he talks about his work. His latest achievement is having his short film Iyeza, an allegory of the Last Supper depicting the establishment of a new nation-state, exploring the African condition by juxtaposing the past and the present of a continent in the grip of violent civil wars. It was selected for the 2013 Sundance Film Festival.
Multimedia is the name of the game and Chiurai is playing it. His previous exhibition, State of the Nation—of which Iyeza was part—received a lot attention. It referenced “child soldiers, African liberation movements, and civil wars. He tracks the similarities in the societal, political and ideological fabric of states in tumultuous times of transition,” according to the Goodman Gallery.
Aside from multimedia, Chiurai is always looking for a different way to tell stories. His first exhibition had a twist to it. He used multimedia and the viewing public.
“I made a couple of short films that I projected onto screens and I made four drawings and then I left them in people’s apartments… so they completed them. Then I collected all of them, [and] then the people who lived in those apartments came to the exhibition…  It was fun and interesting.”
“I was never trained in making film or photography… they were kind of like the leading mediums that grab our attention and it’s always interesting, how you can use them,” he says.
Soon he’ll be taking part in an exhibition that will tour the United States and Europe and end in Harare in 2016. So, it seems Chiurai’s art will be making noise in his mother country once again. It will be interesting to see what the authorities will think this time.   FL

369-14_1

The Man Who Painted Flames On Mugabe’s Face

Mo Ibrahim is rich, relaxed and a lot of fun. He sees humor in the leadership of Africa as he delivers his Nelson Mandela lecture. He compares Robert Mugabe to Bill Clinton and Barack Obama who both ran the world’s biggest economy in their 40s.
“Here we have somebody in our neighboring country, who, at 90 years old, is about to start a new term. So what is wrong with us? And the other day I was thinking, ‘If Obama senior decided to take the young Obama back to Kenya, where would the young Obama be today?’ You may guess, I know, he will never be president of Kenya,” says Ibrahim to laughter from the audience in Pretoria.
Ibrahim knows Africa like the back of his hand. He was born in Sudan in 1946, the second child in a family of five. He went to school and university in Alexandria, Egypt, where his father worked as a cotton trader. After university, Ibrahim went to work for the telecommunications department in Sudan. Following training and assignments abroad, he completed his Masters and Doctorate at the University of Birmingham, in England.
It led to an opportunity to get in on the ground floor of world telecommunications. Ibrahim joined British Telecom (BT) as a technical director when it won the first license for cellular technology. He designed the first mobile network in the United Kingdom.
Ibrahim left BT to start Mobile Systems International (MSI) and founded Celtel International, one of the first mobile phone networks in Africa, in 1998. At the time, people were scrambling for licenses everywhere but Africa. The general consensus was that Africa was too difficult.
“Wherever there is a gap between perception and reality, there’s a good business opportunity,” says Ibrahim.
He sold MSI in 2000. Celtel was sold in 2005 to MTC Kuwait for $3.4 billion, making him a reported $1.4 billion. At the time, the company had six million subscribers in 13 countries.
Ibrahim hails mobile technology as an African success story, but cautions that despite the continent having more mobile phones than Europe and the United States, it makes none of them. He says African nations should sign contracts with mobile companies forcing them to set up factories here and then transfer the skills.
The leadership that could bring this about has been honored with millions of dollars by the Ibrahim Foundation, launched in October 2006, to support good governance and great leadership in Africa. The foundation publishes an annual index on the quality of governance.
The Ibrahim Prize—of $5 million-a-year for 10 years—has been awarded a mere three times and goes only to former heads of state. In 2007, it went to former president of Mozambique Joachim Chissano; in 2008, Festus Mogae of Botswana; in 2011, Pedro Pires of Cape Verde.
Ibrahim says that it’s a prize for excellence that doesn’t come easy. He adds it is a prize and not a pension. Many do not agree with the idea, but Ibrahim challenges people to name three western leaders who could have won it in the last six years.
On the business front, Ibrahim is trying to channel investment through Satya Capital, of which he is chairman.
“Business is wonderful because business means prosperity, development and jobs,” says Ibrahim.
Good business that is. Ibrahim is disturbed by fellow African businessmen whom he believes are detached from society. A closer interaction is essential because, he says, business cannot succeed if society doesn’t thrive. He also thinks that the business world is too scared to rock the boat and hold government to account, forcing transparency and good governance.
Ibrahim is a proponent of integration. He feels that achieving a central market for Africa is essential, that the continent has yet to achieve this because of a lack of political will. According to Ibrahim, an African business plan must begin with integration and that Africa needs scale that allows the development of industries to compete with India, China, Brazil, the European Union and the United States.
“We cannot really build 54 successful small economies in Africa, it’s out of the question,” says Ibrahim.
“Only 11% of our trade is amongst Africans. We refuse to let our people travel from one country to another.”
Ibrahim says Africa needs infrastructure, roads and railways, power generation and broadband.
“Africa will not develop just by accident, people need to work and see what needs to be done and work together,” he says.
Then, there is youthunemployment.
“If you are a young African person, the more educated you are the more likely you are not to get a job. Our education system is not providing the skills for the job market. We need to rethink how our schools teach,” says Ibrahim in a speech to the Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), an organ of the United Nations.
“The future is theirs [the youth], they have a better understanding of the future than us. This continent belongs to its young people,” says Ibrahim.
Delivering the 11th Nelson Mandela Annual Lecture, Ibrahim posed a question whether young Africa can become the factory of the world when China has no youngsters to work in theirs, in 10 to 20 years time, because of the aging population.
What about the notion that China is taking over Africa? Ibrahim sees this as a healthy business relationship as long there is technological transfer, local sourcing of components, transparency, and respect for the environment and communities.
“Why are Africans poor when we have a rich continent?”
More money is lost from multinationals not paying tax, through what he calls ‘fancy accounting’, than gained from aid. He calls for a strengthening of tax institutions. Although the west has woken up to tax dodging, Africa slumbers.
Governance, according to Ibrahim, is about making difficult decisions and being judged on the numbers.
“Physics and numbers don’t lie, but people do,” he says.
Ibrahim says there is a dearth of leadership in Africa; that leadership is not about bossing people around, having a seat on the Security Council, or chairing the AU. It’s about engaging with others.
He says that the continent holds South Africa up as a role model, but that the country has become too arrogant and refuses to learn from other countries.
When the BEE policy was introduced in South Africa, Ibrahim asked his friends in the ruling party if this was not a slippery slope to corruption. He says that the policy has done nothing to keep South Africa from being at the bottom of the Gini Index scorecard, making it the most inequitable country in the world. He says there should be no “sacred cows”, including land reform. If something doesn’t work then policy makers should revisit it.
The 2013 Ibrahim Forum will be held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in November and will discuss where the continent is going after 50 years of the African Union. It will focus on achievements and those that got away.
Ibrahim doesn’t know where he gets his sense of purpose from, but he simply sees things that need to be done and does them. In the end, Ibrahim just wants to be remembered as a son of Africa that made it in the west and never forgot his people.

The World According To Mo And  Why An ObamaWill Never Lead Kenya

Africa, there is a growing trend of prosecuting former presidents, which is stiffening resistance to democratic transitions. It creates dictators who cling to power and impede fresh ideas.
The list is long. Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe, Equatorial Guineas’ Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, Angola’s Jose Eduardo Dos Santos, Congo Republic’s Denis Sassou Nguesso, Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni and Swaziland’s King Mswati III. All have ruled for more than a quarter of a century.
<div id="attachment_2209" style="width: 215px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-2209" class="size-medium wp-image-2209" src="/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Par1766006-205x300.jpg" alt="" width="205" height="300" />Zambia&#8217;s former president Frederick Chiluba gives the thumbs up outside the Magistrates Courts on Febrauary 15, 2008 in Lusaka after the court ruled today that Chiluba should face a corruption trial in May. Chiluba would have to show cause why he should not be convicted on charges of theft of public funds and abuse of office, prosecutor Mutembo Nchito told AFP after the ruling by Lusaka Magistrate Jones Chinyama.</div>
Political commentators say that some leaders who come from poor backgrounds are tempted to hang onto power for fear that poverty awaits in the unknown.
Zambia appears to be a dangerous country in which to step down from power. It is also the only country on the continent where nearly all of its ex-presidents have been investigated and prosecuted. The only exception was Levy Mwanawasa, who died in office.
This is a precedent that is worrying both democratically and economically for Zambia and its people.
Weaknesses in Zambia’s institutions have resulted in abuse of power and malpractice. Lack of enforcement by these institutions to bring culprits to book has also resulted in the embezzlement of coffers.
“The Zambian legislation has major constraints but our leaders don’t care and continuously use immunity to abuse office. What should happen is that the use of immunity should be detected and whoever is involved should be prosecuted. They should not wait until leaders vacate the office for charges to be brought against them,” says economist, Oliver Saasa.
Zambia, like many African nations, has suffered a dearth of democracy since gaining statehood. Independence leader Kenneth Kaunda created a one-party state, which took 27 years to overturn.
Kaunda was voted out in 1991. His successor, former labor leader Frederick Chiluba, left office voluntarily, though under a cloud, after being accused of corruption and abusing the political process. The next two presidents were members of Chiluba’s Movement for Multiparty Democracy, but in 2011 Michael Sata of the Patriotic Front (PF) defeated incumbent Rupiah Banda.
All these leaders have ruled with immunity, accessing treasury funds and misusing the country’s resources. This has led to the investigation and prosecution of the leaders. Commentators see only one way out.
“The best thing for Zambia will be if a head of state commits a transgression that the constitution does not support, then they must be impeached. Parliamentarians must be of moral high ground and should protect the constitution and not act on political alignments and impeach corrupt leaders,” says Saasa.
<div id="attachment_2210" style="width: 239px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-2210" class="size-medium wp-image-2210" src="/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/000_Was1065479-229x300.jpg" alt="" width="229" height="300" />Zambia&#8217;s President Levy Patrick Mwanawasa addresses the 62nd UN General Assembly at the United Nations, 26 September 2007. AFP PHOTO/Emmanuel DUNAND</div>
Sources in Zambia say elected leaders should be above board. People seeking presidency must be able to translate the constitution and use it well in leading a nation instead of using it to quell opposition. They say Zambian leaders should remember that no one is above the law.
After leaving office, Kaunda clashed frequently with Chiluba’s government. He planned to run against Chiluba in the 1996 presidential election, but withdrew after constitutional amendments were passed, rendering him ineligible. In 1997, Kaunda was arrested on charges of inciting an attempted coup. He was released six days later, but placed under house arrest until a court case in June 1998 in which all charges were withdrawn. Famously, he grew a white beard in protest against his incarceration.
From 2003 onwards, after his departure from the presidency, Chiluba was arrested and charged with corruption. Subsequent long-running trials were dogged by adjournments and procedural problems. In March 2013, Rupiah Banda was charged with abuse of power shortly after being stripped of immunity.
But what does the future hold for Zambia’s leaders?
The Sata government is increasingly using its powers for ill, in the way previous heads of state did, with opposition leaders arrested, youth meetings banned, political rallies blocked by riot police, allegations of judicial interference and ministerial corruption, smear campaigns in government media and lawsuits against journalists.
Opposition figures complain that Zambia’s leadership is dragging the country back to a one-party system. Saasa says that Zambia is deteriorating by the day and being run like a dictatorship.
“Zambia’s previous governments have failed to respect the rule of law, which is very dangerous to citizens, and it is clear from recent conduct that officials of the PF government regard themselves as above the law, which may lead to investigating the president and his officials after their end of rule,” says Saasa.
It is difficult to judge the legitimacy of any particular legal charge but so far, the government’s effort to bring corrupt leaders to face the law has led to few trials and convictions. Simply claiming an offense can inflict political and economic damage and discourage further public involvement.
“In our case, a bad piece of legislation has contributed to bad governance. Investors will not want to come and invest in a country where leaders don’t adhere to the rule of law. Economic and political stability is key and if the head of state is questionable in his leadership and dealings, investors will be jittery about investing in such a country; and Zambia is such a country right now. With these weak institutions it means that you are at war with your own citizens, regional bodies and trading blocs, as well as an  international community that includes donor agencies. This is not good for Zambia and it is causing a lot of problems,” says Saasa.
There has always been existential threat to the rule of law and judicial independence in Zambia, resulting in ruling with immunity. Recently the PF pledged to fill the judiciary with its members and Sata suspended three judges hearing a case involving the Post’s owner and editor, Fred Mmembe.
Wynter Kabimba, the justice minister, complained of a dictatorship of the judiciary which needed to be nipped in the bud. He even threatened to dissolve the judiciary.
“Zambian leaders have been tasked and trusted by the electorate to look after their resources but the leaders have used impunity to misuse such resources and for that they must face the law. I think what Zambians want is a more present system of an oversight. An oversight that is strong regardless of political alignment, one that can detect current leaders’ abuse of office. They must be given power and authority by the constitution to charge a seating president with malpractice,” says another political commentator who asked not to be named.
Laws must give oversight institutions, like the anti-corruption authority, power to detect, arrest and charge leaders involved in abuse of office and corruption. Zambia should start thinking of doing away with impunity because it will be the only way to deal with corrupt leaders. We must have a transparent system that is open and follows the rule of law.
Ironically, while candidate Sata campaigned against claims of past MMD corruption, he has impeded investigations of its own members. He insists that the Anti-Corruption Commission receives his permission to investigate cabinet members.
“Given this government’s established pattern of using violence and ethnic hate speech as a political strategy, we should be very concerned over what could happen next,” says Saasa.
Zambia is no dictatorship, but the trend is worrisome and goes beyond the tendency of all politicians everywhere to manipulate power to their advantage. Zambia’s leaders should peer into the future and resist the authoritarian tendency. All sides should agree to circumscribe powers which can be abused by any party in power. Otherwise the future for Zambia could be very bleak indeed.

Power Comes Before A Fall

“We will not legitimize the illegitimate.”
This was the reaction to a questionable election victory in Zimbabwe from the loser, Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai, the prime minister of the fragile power-sharing government.
After President Robert Mugabe’s win, on July 31, Tsvangirai accused the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission of rigging the poll and indicated that his party would take legal action. The MDC dropped the case as they felt they would not get a fair trial.
<div id="attachment_2094" style="width: 310px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-2094" class="size-medium wp-image-2094" src="/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/0000196003-300x200.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="200" />HARARE, ZIMBABWE &#8211; AUGUST 2: Morgan Tsvangerai on August 2, 2013, in Harare, Zimbabwe. It was announced that ZANU PF leader, Robert Mugabe has once more won the elections. (Photo by Gallo Images / Foto24 / Herman Verwey)</div>
Questionable electoral conduct has been cited in more than 100 constituencies, where thousands of voters were turned away. Names were not appearing on the voters roll, others found their names on the roll in far-flung constituencies. Intimidation was subtle, but rife, according to reports.
“It’s a huge farce,” said Tsvangirai as counting began.
Harare, the capital, went quiet when the result emerged. There were no celebrations.
Tendai Biti, MDC secretary general, lashed out at the ruling party, questioning its conduct during the elections.
“We live in horrible times surrounded by horrible men—men we have always assumed human, rational and real—they are not&#8230; The thing is, we always assume that revolutionary parties (ZANU-PF) have a conscience or a limit. They do not. For power, they will do anything. When dealing with them, always budget for the irrational, for the insane. Any assumption of sanity is wrong and naïve. They have stolen this election to the extent that they themselves are embarrassed,” says Biti.
“[Since the election date] we have been walking like zombies, drowning in dark shadows of pain and disbelief, hoping that this is just a nightmare. I’m afraid it’s real. Can someone in Borrowdale Road show me hands and say we voted ZANU-PF? Maybe you are at Sam Levy (a popular shopping center). Please get in touch if you are out there,” pleads Biti.
Economic commentator Jonathan Kadzura says: “There is nothing abnormal or controversial about the election. The losers must eat humble pie and let the nation move ahead. A Zanu-PF government is going to have people-oriented policies that are geared towards job creation. Agriculture is the backbone of our economy [which] we are going to revive [to] get the economy kicking, whether people like the results of the election or not.”
But President Robert Mugabe appears to be a hard sell for business—as trading resumed after the election win, the bourse took a nosedive, losing 11% of its value in one day. The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange is valued at around $6 billion and experts predict troubled trading times ahead.
Talk is rife about the manipulation of the voters roll, which was only made available on polling day. It was made available to the MDC after a High Court order was granted, but there wasn’t any previous commitment to make it open for inspection, even to international observers present.
“So far, we haven’t dispatched our observers, we don’t have a copy of the voter roll,” said Bernard Member, of the SADC Observer Mission, before the poll.
President Mugabe apologized for what he called “hitches” that kept the voters’ roll under wraps. He denied that his party was working in collusion with the registrar general’s office to manipulate the electoral register in favor of his party.
“We don’t do such things,” he says.
Unexpectedly, strongholds of the MDC in the cities were won over by Zanu-PF, making many voters suspicious.
After suffering an electoral setback in the 2008 polls, in which Mugabe gathered a mere 43% of the first round of the presidential vote, he turned the tables, and garnered 61% five years later. The miraculous setback of his main rival Morgan Tsvangirai, garnering 34%—against 47% five years earlier—is an electoral trend that has defied analysis.
As the country limps into another term with Mugabe at the helm, without the full support of western capital, analysts warn of economic stagnation.
“There is hope, if there is a shift in economic policies,” says Eric Bloch, an economic commentator. “There is need for foreign direct investment [and] curtailing of government expenditure. They will have to [have] the courage to make fundamental changes, that can boost the confidence of the market.”
“The win by Zanu-PF is sending shivers in the market, considering the mainstay of the party’s slogan on indigenization of foreign owned companies. The policy has no takers going forward. With the liquidity crunch hitting the world, we will have investors, especially foreign investors with little appetite to try to engage the market, which is risky—like Zimbabwe,” says Christopher Mugaga, of Economiter Global Capital, a financial consultant group in Harare.
“The onus is upon Mugabe to set up a cabinet, which is not military or militant, but rather made of technocrats.”
The cry from both parties during the campaigns was for job creation, resuscitation of industry and health. If Mugabe fails on this front, the chances of his party surviving another vote are slim, given the restless and growing number of youths without jobs.
The indigenization policy—where foreign-owned companies are being forced to sell stakes—are said to be benefiting a mere handful of close associates of Mugabe’s party. Foreign-owned companies have to be approved by the Ministry of Indigenization and Economic Empowerment. The policy is legally questionable as it affects the enshrined freedom of association and interferes with guaranteed property rights. The legal experts call it a broad legislative framework, prone to many legal interpretations, which can be abused for political expediency.
“This scares investors leaving them with no option, except to stay away,” says Mugaga.
“Zimbabwe is not going to die&#8230; The MDC-led Treasury in the previous government did not want agriculture to succeed, but this Zanu-PF government is going to invest more in agriculture, making the availability of inputs to new farmers a priority so that they will produce sufficient raw materials, leading to the production of locally produced products, which will substitute the imports that we have seen on our supermarkets. Industry will expand. Zanu-PF government is going to focus on job creation, resuscitation of closed textile industries, [and] provide loans for the youths to start their businesses. Our market is awash with Chinese products. We want locally produced goods that with a reasonable price range for locals,” says Kadzura.
Despite this promise of better days, there is more anxiety and hopelessness in Harare these days, than celebration and hope.

“We Live In Horrible Times Surrounded By Horrible Men”

Political risk continues to remain elevated in Zimbabwe. The introduction of a government of national unity (GNU) saw a decrease in violence and human rights abuses but little else. Differences between Zimbabwe African National Union (ZANU-PF) and the two factions of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) are glaring and threaten the future of the government.
A key source of political risk arises from the upcoming election. Southern African Development Community (SADC) member states have reaffirmed their position that no election can take place until all conditions of the 2008 Global Political Agreement (GPA) are fulfilled.
A key condition of the GPA is the formulation of a new constitution. A draft constitution has now been completed and submitted to the GNU for comment and suggestions for amendment. The two factions of MDC have supported the draft constitution and are ready to put it to a referendum.
President Robert Mugabe, who has ruled Zimbabwe for 32 years, is adamant there should be an election this year, but reality is that it may not be before 2013. It is likely the next election will be close. ZANU-PF will be reluctant to relinquish power to the MDC, which it accuses of being sponsored by the West. The voters themselves are eager for change following years of economic stagnation.
The European Union (EU) said it was considering easing decade-long sanctions if the country implements a new constitution; a move that could encourage a free and fair poll.
Politics will undoubtedly trump any economic policy considerations. As such, Zimbabwe is unlikely to see any significant economic reforms to revive the economy of what was once Africa’s bread basket. The indigenization drive will take center stage economically especially as the election draws closer. The indigenization legislation aims to ensure that 51% of foreign-owned companies are owned by indigenous, black Zimbabweans.
The indigenization program, which is in full swing is led by indigenization minister, Saviour Kasukuwere, who is seen as a die-hard ZANU-PF loyalist. One of the thorny issues for the program is the fate of the lucrative mining industry. The government is locked in a dispute with the country’s largest foreign investor, South Africa’s Impala Platinum (Implats). The miner has complied with the law by divesting the required share of the company to indigenous, black Zimbabweans. The government is to get 31% of Implats. The miner has requested that the government pay market prices for the stake. The cash-strapped government has refused to pay. The dispute still rumbles on.
From the resources sector the zealous Kasukuwere has turned his attention to the financial sector. The target is the four foreign-owned banks. Indicative of a rift within ZANU-PF, Zimbabwe Reserve Bank governor, Gideon Gono, has warned of the implications of indigenizing the banking sector, the backbone of any modern economy. The minister of finance, Tendai Biti, also added his voice of concern to such a move. ZANU-PF is likely to disregard these voices of reason and power ahead with the indigenization campaign until the elections. Indigenization is likely to be a vote winner for ZANU-PF. Therefore, investors will remain wary of the country’s investment climate.
Zimbabwe’s political environment will weigh heavily on an already injured economy. The minister of finance in July downwardly revised growth for 2012 from 9.4% to 5.6%. The revision is on the back of a poor harvest, inadequate donor funding and incoherent policies. Zimbabwe grew 9.3% in 2011.
Political uncertainty will surely remain in place until elections are held. Until then, the economic policy will remain incoherent, which will in turn be detrimental to the economy. Zimbabwe’s economy will only show signs of sustained recovery with a democratically elected government.

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