“We will not legitimize the illegitimate.”
This was the reaction to a questionable election victory in Zimbabwe from the loser, Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai, the prime minister of the fragile power-sharing government.
After President Robert Mugabe’s win, on July 31, Tsvangirai accused the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission of rigging the poll and indicated that his party would take legal action. The MDC dropped the case as they felt they would not get a fair trial.
HARARE, ZIMBABWE – AUGUST 2: Morgan Tsvangerai on August 2, 2013, in Harare, Zimbabwe. It was announced that ZANU PF leader, Robert Mugabe has once more won the elections. (Photo by Gallo Images / Foto24 / Herman Verwey)
Questionable electoral conduct has been cited in more than 100 constituencies, where thousands of voters were turned away. Names were not appearing on the voters roll, others found their names on the roll in far-flung constituencies. Intimidation was subtle, but rife, according to reports.
“It’s a huge farce,” said Tsvangirai as counting began.
Harare, the capital, went quiet when the result emerged. There were no celebrations.
Tendai Biti, MDC secretary general, lashed out at the ruling party, questioning its conduct during the elections.
“We live in horrible times surrounded by horrible men—men we have always assumed human, rational and real—they are not… The thing is, we always assume that revolutionary parties (ZANU-PF) have a conscience or a limit. They do not. For power, they will do anything. When dealing with them, always budget for the irrational, for the insane. Any assumption of sanity is wrong and naïve. They have stolen this election to the extent that they themselves are embarrassed,” says Biti.
“[Since the election date] we have been walking like zombies, drowning in dark shadows of pain and disbelief, hoping that this is just a nightmare. I’m afraid it’s real. Can someone in Borrowdale Road show me hands and say we voted ZANU-PF? Maybe you are at Sam Levy (a popular shopping center). Please get in touch if you are out there,” pleads Biti.
Economic commentator Jonathan Kadzura says: “There is nothing abnormal or controversial about the election. The losers must eat humble pie and let the nation move ahead. A Zanu-PF government is going to have people-oriented policies that are geared towards job creation. Agriculture is the backbone of our economy [which] we are going to revive [to] get the economy kicking, whether people like the results of the election or not.”
But President Robert Mugabe appears to be a hard sell for business—as trading resumed after the election win, the bourse took a nosedive, losing 11% of its value in one day. The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange is valued at around $6 billion and experts predict troubled trading times ahead.
Talk is rife about the manipulation of the voters roll, which was only made available on polling day. It was made available to the MDC after a High Court order was granted, but there wasn’t any previous commitment to make it open for inspection, even to international observers present.
“So far, we haven’t dispatched our observers, we don’t have a copy of the voter roll,” said Bernard Member, of the SADC Observer Mission, before the poll.
President Mugabe apologized for what he called “hitches” that kept the voters’ roll under wraps. He denied that his party was working in collusion with the registrar general’s office to manipulate the electoral register in favor of his party.
“We don’t do such things,” he says.
Unexpectedly, strongholds of the MDC in the cities were won over by Zanu-PF, making many voters suspicious.
After suffering an electoral setback in the 2008 polls, in which Mugabe gathered a mere 43% of the first round of the presidential vote, he turned the tables, and garnered 61% five years later. The miraculous setback of his main rival Morgan Tsvangirai, garnering 34%—against 47% five years earlier—is an electoral trend that has defied analysis.
As the country limps into another term with Mugabe at the helm, without the full support of western capital, analysts warn of economic stagnation.
“There is hope, if there is a shift in economic policies,” says Eric Bloch, an economic commentator. “There is need for foreign direct investment [and] curtailing of government expenditure. They will have to [have] the courage to make fundamental changes, that can boost the confidence of the market.”
“The win by Zanu-PF is sending shivers in the market, considering the mainstay of the party’s slogan on indigenization of foreign owned companies. The policy has no takers going forward. With the liquidity crunch hitting the world, we will have investors, especially foreign investors with little appetite to try to engage the market, which is risky—like Zimbabwe,” says Christopher Mugaga, of Economiter Global Capital, a financial consultant group in Harare.
“The onus is upon Mugabe to set up a cabinet, which is not military or militant, but rather made of technocrats.”
The cry from both parties during the campaigns was for job creation, resuscitation of industry and health. If Mugabe fails on this front, the chances of his party surviving another vote are slim, given the restless and growing number of youths without jobs.
The indigenization policy—where foreign-owned companies are being forced to sell stakes—are said to be benefiting a mere handful of close associates of Mugabe’s party. Foreign-owned companies have to be approved by the Ministry of Indigenization and Economic Empowerment. The policy is legally questionable as it affects the enshrined freedom of association and interferes with guaranteed property rights. The legal experts call it a broad legislative framework, prone to many legal interpretations, which can be abused for political expediency.
“This scares investors leaving them with no option, except to stay away,” says Mugaga.
“Zimbabwe is not going to die… The MDC-led Treasury in the previous government did not want agriculture to succeed, but this Zanu-PF government is going to invest more in agriculture, making the availability of inputs to new farmers a priority so that they will produce sufficient raw materials, leading to the production of locally produced products, which will substitute the imports that we have seen on our supermarkets. Industry will expand. Zanu-PF government is going to focus on job creation, resuscitation of closed textile industries, [and] provide loans for the youths to start their businesses. Our market is awash with Chinese products. We want locally produced goods that with a reasonable price range for locals,” says Kadzura.
Despite this promise of better days, there is more anxiety and hopelessness in Harare these days, than celebration and hope.