This story is part of the &#8216;<a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2020/12/07/all-you-need-to-know-about-the-vaccine/">All You Need To Know About The Vaccine</a>&#8216; piece. 



Preclinical Phase



This phase within a study is most intensive and can often require the most amount of time and extensive research into possible cellular reactions between the intervention being investigated and the body’s immune response. This phase is often tested thoroughly with the use of animal test subjects before proceeding to Phase I.



Phase I&nbsp;



This initial phase is conducted on a relatively small number of participants (six-10). It allows scientists to closely study and examine any effects or interactions that the intervention being investigated has in human participants. This phase is used to determine the safety and tolerability elements that an intervention may have in treating human participants. Participants are closely watched for the possible occurrence and severity of any side-effects that may occur.



Phase II&nbsp;



The size of the participant pool could vary greatly here as the size is dependent on the type of illness being investigated (typically between 20-300 participants). In this phase, the dosage is often experimented with. This is done to successfully determine the dosage required for the intervention to be most effective and safe to administer. Different dosages of the intervention could produce different results. As such, multiple simulations of Phase II may occur for a single intervention, being tested within numerous populations of interest.



Phase III&nbsp;



As with Phase II, the sample increases substantially (300-3,000 participants). These large numbers are used to confirm the level of safety and efficacy of the medical intervention. This phase also allows for a significant comparison between the drug being tested and other similar interventions on the market. It can also be used to test the efficacy of the intervention when used as part of a treatment plan and it tests the interactions it has with other medical interventions within the treatment plan. Finally, this phase allows for the prescribed dosage to be finalized.



Phase IV



The last and final phase occurs after regulatory approval has been granted. This phase looks at the long-term administration of the medical intervention and possible side-effects that could occur as a result of prolonged use of the intervention. This phase tests the overall efficacy and safety of the intervention within larger groups and sub-groups within a population. By this phase, the occurrence of any serious medical events has been resolved and the intervention becomes available as a viable treatment option within the sub-area of the medical market. Regulatory bodies keep a close eye on the intervention as it continues to monitor the administration of the intervention to the general public. Doing this ensures that any medical intervention currently in the public domain or in the clinical trial phase is entirely safe for human use.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-further-reading">Further Reading </h4>



PLEASE NOTE: More stories regarding the Covid-19 vaccine will be published. However, if you would like to read the full Focus piece by Simone Sribrath, click <a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/product/single-digital-issue-dec-jan-2020/">here to download the digital copy of FORBES AFRICA.</a>



<a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2020/12/07/all-you-need-to-know-about-the-vaccine/">All You Need To Know About The Vaccine</a> (Forbes Africa)



<a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2020/12/10/qa-endemic-diseases-like-hiv-are-still-an-emergency/">Q&amp;A: ‘ENDEMIC DISEASES LIKE HIV ARE STILL AN EMERGENCY (Forbes Africa)</a>

Florida Volunteers Take Part In COVID-19 Vaccine Trials

What Goes Into A Clinical Trial?

Topline: As people begin to prepare for the festive season, South African President, Cyril Ramaphosa, has once again taken to the podium to warn the country that until a vaccine is developed and distributed, citizens are to remain vigilant. With that being said, the President has yet again extended the National State of Disaster to January 15, 2021. 



Key Facts



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Though it was clear that a second wave would be possible, Ramaphosa was adamant on Thursday evening that evidence of a resurgence of infections in parts of the country “could lead to great suffering and death” if not confronted. </li><li>Since August, South Africa was able to keep the rate of new infections stable. However, on Wednesday evening, South Africa’s National Department of Health reported that the country recorded over 4000 new cases in a single day. </li></ul>



<figure class="wp-block-embed-twitter aligncenter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">As of today, the cumulative total of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/COVID19?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#COVID19</a> cases is 796 472 with 4 173 new cases identified since the last report. Total Deaths: Regrettably, 65 more COVID-19 related deaths have been reported which brings the total to 21 709 deaths. <a href="https://t.co/rk2ZKKdWt7">pic.twitter.com/rk2ZKKdWt7</a>&mdash; National Department of Health (@HealthZA) <a href="https://twitter.com/HealthZA/status/1334212248605233154?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 2, 2020</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Nelson Mandela Bay in Port Elizabeth, Eastern Cape, has been declared a Covid-19 hotspot. With this, the municipality will have strict restrictions put in places like a curfew and limited days to purchase alcohol.&nbsp;</li><li>Also accounting for some of the new infections are the Sarah Baartman District in the Eastern Cape and the Garden Route District in the Western Cape.&nbsp;</li><li>“As I said during <a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/current-affairs/2020/11/11/south-african-president-extends-national-state-of-disaster-by-a-month-and-appeals-to-the-country-to-not-get-complacent/">our last family meeting</a>, at alert level 1, we have the measures we need to control the virus,” Ramaphosa said on a live broadcast. “But our main problem is that there are parts of the country where people are not complying with the current restrictions and the basic prevention measures are not being followed.”&nbsp;</li></ul>



Key Reason Behind the Increase in Transmission in South Africa



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Ramaphosa stated that one particular reason behind the rise is that many South Africans are traveling between provinces with high numbers of people, especially with the festive season approaching.&nbsp;</li><li>Furthermore, social, cultural, and religious gatherings are being held in large numbers. These are more numbers than what is permitted under the Alert Level 1 restrictions.&nbsp;</li><li>“What is concerning is that these are also often held in venues with poor ventilation. This is particularly the case for funerals, which are often followed by large so-called “after tears” parties,” the president said.&nbsp;</li><li>However, the main problem is that people are not complying with the current restrictions and the basic prevention measures are not being followed, such as wearing a mask or social distancing.&nbsp;</li></ul>



Crucial Quote&nbsp;



“As much as we want to relax, the virus does not relax. It does not take a holiday. This has been a difficult year for us as a country. It has severely tested our resolve and demanded great sacrifices of each and every one of us. But even as the holidays approach, we cannot let our guard down,” Ramaphosa said.

Interview with South Africa’s President Ramaphosa

South African President Urges Continued Vigilance Against Virus

TOPLINE As governments around the world begin to approve and roll out Covid-19 vaccines, the international police agency Interpol <a href="https://www.interpol.int/en/News-and-Events/News/2020/INTERPOL-warns-of-organized-crime-threat-to-COVID-19-vaccines" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">issued</a> a warning Wednesday of an oncoming “onslaught” of criminal activity, both online and physically, linked to Covid-19 vaccines.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h4>



In the notice, which was sent out to authorities in 194 countries, the agency warned that organized crime networks are “planning to infiltrate or disrupt [vaccine] supply chains,” possibly selling fake vaccines and targeting unsuspecting members of the public with fake websites and products.&nbsp;



It said the pandemic has “already triggered unprecedented opportunistic and predatory criminal behaviour” and that it is “essential that law enforcement is as prepared as possible” for the imminent “onslaught of all types of criminal activity.”&nbsp;



As well as targeting vaccines, the agency predicts “a parallel production and distribution of unauthorized and falsified testing kits” and a proliferation of online scams.&nbsp;



The agency warned that criminals would also be targeting flu vaccines, and urged close cooperation between health and police authorities in order to safeguard the public.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-background">KEY BACKGROUND</h4>



As Covid-19 vaccines start to be approved and distributed around the world, the big question is who will get them first. To begin with, and likely well into 2021, supplies will fall far short of demand, even in the countries that have preemptively&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2020/10/26/who-warns-of-dangerous-moment-amid-spike-in-covid-19-cases/?sh=4927103e244c">bought up</a>&nbsp;most of the world’s supplies. Numerous countries will be&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2020/12/01/cdc-panel-health-workers-and-nursing-homes-should-get-first-covid-vaccine-doses/?sh=60d80a1320cd">prioritizing</a>&nbsp;at-risk groups and frontline medical workers and many more will struggle to get any vaccines at all, leaving ample room for exploitation by criminals.&nbsp;



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-big-number">BIG NUMBER</h4>



1,700.&nbsp;Interpol’s Cybercrime Unit found that of 3,000 websites associated with online pharmacies suspected of selling illicit medicines and medical devices, around 1,700 contained cyber threats like phishing and malware.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-news-peg">NEWS PEG</h4>



The U.K. became the first country to clinically&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2020/12/02/uk-approves-pfizer-biontechs-covid-19-vaccine-the-first-country-to-do-so/?sh=3b2ac199539d">approve</a>&nbsp;a Covid-19 vaccine Wednesday, authorizing Pfizer-BioNTech’s vaccine for emergency use. A decision in the U.S. is expected next week.&nbsp;



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-further-reading">FURTHER READING</h4>



<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2020/12/02/uk-approves-pfizer-biontechs-covid-19-vaccine-the-first-country-to-do-so/?sh=3b2ac199539d">U.K. Grants Emergency Approval Pfizer-BioNTech’s Covid-19 Vaccine, The First Country To Do So</a>&nbsp;(Forbes)



<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2020/12/02/heres-why-the-uk-beat-the-us-to-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-for-emergency-use/?sh=795ab71b1af9">Here’s Why The U.K. Beat The U.S. To Approve A Covid-19 Vaccine For Emergency Use</a> (Forbes)



-By Robert Hart, Forbes Staff

Italy Continues To Struggle With A Worsening Covid-19 Situation

Organized Criminals Are Targeting Covid-19 Vaccines, Interpol Warns

TOPLINE As the bull market for stocks rages on and even bests pre-pandemic levels, some American households are bouncing back much more slowly than others, unearthing a pattern indicative of a K-shaped (or lopsided) economic recovery, Goldman Sachs said on Sunday–and without additional fiscal relief, it could take years for employment to fully recover.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h4>



The biggest driver of the K-shaped recovery taking shape is that pandemic job losses were &#8220;highly concentrated in virus-sensitive industries&#8221; like retail, leisure and hospitality–all of which disproportionately employ low-wage workers, Goldman analyst Joseph Briggs wrote in a weekend note.



Some companies have turned to technology in an effort to boost productivity in the absence of real workers, and it’s working (which is bad news for American workers): Productivity is up 4% this year despite major job losses, according to Moody&#8217;s Analytics, which now estimates the 22 million jobs lost this spring won’t come back until early 2024.



While stimulus measures have helped keep overall disposable income afloat during the pandemic, Americans making less than $30 per hour are feeling the most economic pain.



Slowed wage growth has also been markedly worse for lower-income workers–further contributing to the disparate economic recovery, the Goldman report goes on to say.



Goldman projects a lack of new fiscal relief will cause a fourth-quarter decline in disposable income that will hit the bottom 25% of earners &#8220;particularly hard,&#8221; while also weighing on consumer spending this winter.



The outlook for lower-income workers will get &#8220;significantly worse&#8221; if Congress doesn&#8217;t pass another fiscal stimulus package of at least $700 billion in the first quarter, Goldman notes, adding that additional relief coupled with widespread vaccination could actually help yield a V-shaped recovery, which is characteristic of a quicker, more equitable economic bounceback.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-crucial-quote">CRUCIAL QUOTE</h4>



&#8220;The largest pandemic casualties have been less productive industries including retailing, leisure and hospitality, while the biggest winners have been in more productive industries like technology, wholesaling and professional services,&#8221; Moody&#8217;s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi said in a weekend note, adding that within industries, smaller businesses have fared worse than their larger, more productive counterparts, which are more able to afford large investments in technology and organizational changes. &#8220;This is clearest in retail. Tens of thousands of mom and pop retailers have failed and mid-sized publicly traded retailers have filed for bankruptcy, while the retailing behemoths gobbled up market share. They knew those changes would entail difficulty for their labor forces, [but] the pandemic has effectively given businesses cover to make these wrenching changes.&#8221;



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-background">KEY BACKGROUND</h4>



November marked the best month for stocks in over 30 years, but the labor market and other economic indicators are flashing serious warning signs. Despite record-low mortgage rates, higher costs pushed pre-owned home sales down in October for a second month in a row, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors released on Monday, and new manufacturing data showed that production output and new factory orders are also falling as Covid-19 cases surge to new highs nationwide. “Storm clouds are gathering,” George Ratiu, a senior economist at Realtor.com&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-housing-manufacturing-data-suggest-economic-recovery-slowing-idUSKBN28A2IX?il=0" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">told Reuters on Monday</a>. “This winter could pose an unusual challenge for many people across the country, unless Congress takes significant actions.”



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-to-watch-for">WHAT TO WATCH FOR</h4>



Potential relief before January. Goldman says it expects Congress to pass a small fiscal package in December that could extend the expanded unemployment insurance benefits set to expire at year’s end.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-tangent">TANGENT</h4>



Despite highly encouraging vaccine-trial results from Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca in the past month, a &#8220;parabolic&#8221; surge in the number of Covid-19 infections is threatening to overwhelm hospitals around the country and has already triggered new lockdown measures on businesses. In a note to clients last week,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2020/11/23/13-million-americans-lose-jobs-covid-cases-skyrocket-but-double-dip-recession-is-unlikely-moodys/">Moody&#8217;s said</a>&nbsp;the resurgent virus could stall or even backtrack the economic recovery in the coming months and force another 1.3 million Americans into unemployment.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-further-reading">FURTHER READING</h4>



<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2020/11/23/13-million-americans-lose-jobs-covid-cases-skyrocket-but-double-dip-recession-is-unlikely-moodys/">1.3 Million More Americans Could Lose Their Jobs As Daily Covid Cases Skyrocket, But A Double-Dip Recession Is Unlikely, Says Moody’s</a>&nbsp;(Forbes)



<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2020/11/24/dow-jones-industrial-average-hits-record-30000/">Dow Jones Industrial Average Hits Record 30,000–Reaching A Historic Milestone As 11 Million Americans Remain Unemployed Amid Pandemic</a> (Forbes)



-By Jonathan Ponciano, Forbes Staff

Holiday Season Begins Across New York City Area

It Could Take 4 Years To Recover The 22 Million Jobs Lost During Covid-19 Pandemic, Moody’s Warns

TOPLINE The Food and Drug Administration Thursday <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-drug-combination-treatment-covid-19" target="_blank">issued</a> an emergency use authorization for Eli Lilly’s rheumatoid arthritis drug baricitinib and remdesivir for coronavirus treatment, the first drug combination authorized by the FDA as a therapeutic for the virus. 



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">KEY FACTS</h4>



Baricitinib is an existing FDA-approved drug for rheumatoid arthritis, but it has benefits for coronavirus patients used in combination with Gilead Sciences’ remdesivir, which has already been given&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/10/22/fda-approves-remdesivir-for-covid-19-treatment/?sh=680206fe63c8">full FDA approval</a>.



The emergency authorization only applies to hospitalized patients in need of supplemental oxygen.



The drug combination was given emergency approval based on a randomized double-blind trial that found it reduced median recovery time by one day and increased the chances of survival by 35% compared to patients taking remdesivir alone.



Scientists are also interested in the combination of baricitinib and the steroid dexamethasone, the latter of which was taken by President Donald Trump when he was infected, as a potential coronavirus therapeutic.&nbsp;



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">CRUCIAL QUOTE</h4>



“The FDA’s emergency authorization of this combination therapy represents an incremental step forward in the treatment of COVID-19 in hospitalized patients, and FDA’s first authorization of a drug that acts on the inflammation pathway,” Patrizia Cavazzoni, acting director of the FDA’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, said in a statement.&nbsp;



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">KEY BACKGROUND</h4>



&nbsp;Eli Lilly has also earned emergency approval for bamlanivimab, a monoclonal antibody treatment for early cases of Covid-19. Other promising therapeutics, including Regeneron’s antibody cocktail and dexamethasone have yet to receive FDA approval. Hydroxychloroquine had its emergency authorization rescinded after data showed it had no benefit for Covid-19 patients.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">WHAT TO WATCH FOR</h4>



Eli Lilly is conducting a clinical trial for baricitinib by itself, and the company may pursue an emergency use authorization for the drug depending on the results.



-By Rachel Sandler, Forbes Staff

Pharmaceutical research into infectious disease and pandemics, scientist pipetting a sample of a new drug formula into a vial during a clinical trial with the infectious disease on the computer screen

FDA Gives Emergency Approval To Covid-19 Treatment That Combines Eli Lilly Arthritis Drug With Remdesivir

The third South Africa Investment Conference was held on November 17-18in Johannesburg, bringing together powerhouses from public and private sector entities to discuss issues around the South African economy and drum up investment for the country. &nbsp;



In the past two years, R660 billion ($42.5 billion) has been raised by this conference and this year’s investment drive raised R109.6 billion ($7 billion). &nbsp;



The panels held over two days addressed participants both digitally and in person.&nbsp;



A total of nine discussions took place and each delved into a pertinent issue related to rebuilding the economy. The Director-General of the BRICS’ New Development Bank, Monale Ratsoma, announced that the bank would be investing&nbsp;$2 billion towards the development of South Africa’s infrastructure. Ratsoma was firm on the involvement of the government in ensuring regulatory compliance. &nbsp;



Kgosientso Ramokgopa, Chief Executive of Infrastructure South Africa, echoed Ratsoma’s sentiments, further emphasizing the need for the implementation of government strategy and action over policy development and discussions around this. Ramokgopa also highlighted the need for government to take actionable steps towards implementation instead of only theorizing the possibilities through the use of policy and regulations. &nbsp;



“We [the government] are very big on talk and policy articulation and there is very little attention on application and delivery,” said Ramokgopa.&nbsp;He&nbsp;said a step towards this would be collaboration with the private sector and reformation of structural procedures.&nbsp;&nbsp;



The message from day one was intertwined into the conversations on day two as Ramaphosa also outlined the need for “walking the walk over talking the talk”. The need for the localization of production was highlighted. &nbsp;



Ramaphosa also outlined the recovery plan which was going to deal with the reformation of the economic structure and stream-lining of industrial processes. Investors into the economy such as Amazon web services and Naspers outlined what their investments have provided to South Africa so far.&nbsp;



“In responding to the coronavirus emergency, South Africa has demonstrated its capacity for innovation, collaboration, and versatility,” said Ramaphosa in his opening speech on the second day. 



As the conference drew to a close, the evidence of its effectiveness or shortcomings will only be revealed in the coming months as the economy continues to tackle the challenges presented by Covid-19.&nbsp;

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa gestures as he delivers the opening address during the 3rd South Africa Investment Conference in Sandton

South Africa Investment Conference Bags $7 Billion In Commitments

TOPLINE: Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine is 94.5% effective in preventing the disease, preliminary data from large-scale phase three trials shows, the company announced in a <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/modernas-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-meets-its-primary-efficacy" target="_blank">press release</a> on Monday.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">KEY FACTS</h3>



The preliminary data is based on an evaluation of 95 confirmed Covid-19 infections among the trial’s 30,000 participants.



According to the company, 90 of the participants who got infected with Covid-19 are from the placebo group while only 5 cases of infection were seen in the group that received two doses of the vaccine.



This is a developing story. Check back for updates.



-By Siladitya Ray, Forbes Staff

In this photo illustration the medical syringe is seen with

Moderna’s Covid-19 Vaccine Is More Than 94% Effective, Preliminary Data Shows

TOPLINE: Some U.S. cities have now run out of space in their ICUs, with many more on the brink of being overwhelmed as Covid hospitalizations keep skyrocketing to new national records on a daily basis.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">KEY FACTS</h4>



<a href="https://twitter.com/TCBPubHealth/status/1326888035129176064?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Jackson, Mississippi</a>—the state’s capital—has “zero” ICU beds available, while the rest of the state has “very few,” State Health Officer Dr. Thomas Dobbs said.



<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/11/10/tulsa-has-run-out-of-icu-beds-and-el-paso-is-out-of-morgue-space-heres-the-latest-grim-toll-of-covid/?sh=78c74f022133">Tulsa</a>&nbsp;health officials announced Tuesday night that the city had run out of ICU beds.



<a href="https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/state-and-regional/running-out-of-room-st-louis-hospitals-forced-to-turn-away-patients-from-rural-areas/article_0e17fc93-3e67-5a49-9a33-0b346618b5c3.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">St. Louis</a>&nbsp;hospitals are so overwhelmed they’re reportedly having to turn away some patients.



In North Dakota, nurses are being allowed to continue working in certain cases even if they are<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/11/10/covid-positive-nurses-allowed-to-keep-working-in-north-dakota-amid-staffing-crisis/?sh=392003af60fd">&nbsp;Covid-positive</a>, as Gov. Doug Burgum (R) has warned that the state’s healthcare system could soon be pushed beyond its limits.



A field hospital has been set up for surge capacity in<a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/10/22/926809402/wisconsin-opens-a-field-hospital-at-state-fair-grounds-as-coronavirus-cases-spik" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&nbsp;Wisconsin</a>, with<a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/11/13/metro/mass-reopen-field-hospital-dcu-center-worcester/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&nbsp;Massachusetts</a>&nbsp;planning to reopen one in December, and $10 million going toward converting a parking garage in<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/525995-nevada-hospital-turns-parking-garage-into-covid-19-surge-unit" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&nbsp;Reno, Nevada</a>, into a Covid unit.



Vineet Arora, a hospital expert at the University of Chicago, warns that Illinois is “dangerously close” to exceeding capacity, telling<a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/11/12/934266517/illinois-health-care-workers-say-hospitals-will-run-out-of-icu-beds-by-thanksgiv" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&nbsp;NPR</a>&nbsp;that ICUs will run out of space by Thanksgiving.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">WHAT TO WATCH FOR</h4>



Several other places around the country—like Kansas City and<a href="https://www.rochesterfirst.com/coronavirus/strong-hospital-nearing-100-capacity-as-covid-19-cases-surge-in-monroe-county/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&nbsp;Rochester, New York</a>—are also pushing the limits of their health care capacity. In<a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/14/934185297/covid-19-hospitalizations-surge-in-dakotas-its-like-we-opened-up-a-spigot" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&nbsp;South Dakota</a>, a health official told NPR that it’s “a possibility” the state would follow North Dakota in taking the exceptional step of allowing nurses with Covid to work in Covid units at hospitals and nursing homes, provided they are asymptomatic. That’s a step Dr. Steffanie Strathdee, Associate Dean of Global Health at UC San Diego and author of “<a href="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/pOQeCZ6ZQ7fAY0XwTysi5X?domain=theperfectpredator.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">The Perfect Predator</a>,” told&nbsp;Forbes&nbsp;earlier this week was “crazy” for North Dakota to take. Another looming problem could be a lack of nurses nationwide. During the spring surge, scores of health workers flocked to New York, which was the hardest-hit city in the country. But the crisis now is nationwide, meaning there could be competition for health workers in many places.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">KEY BACKGROUND</h4>



The U.S. has set a new record for hospitalizations for four-straight days, according to data from<a href="https://covidtracking.com/data" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&nbsp;The COVID Tracking Project</a>, and the trend seems to only be accelerating. Significantly adding to the problem is that new cases are also not only increasing, but constantly increasing at a faster pace, as well. The U.S. added more than 180,000 new cases on Friday, again setting a new record, which keeps getting broken<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/11/14/another-grim-new-record-us-tops-180000-new-infections-friday-covid-cases-rising-in-all-50-states/?sh=6c8aa7821ea5">&nbsp;day after day</a>. Just 10 days earlier, the U.S. had never topped 94,000 cases in a single day. And before the fall surge, the daily case record stood at just over 75,000. Hospitalizations stood at 68,516 on Friday, according to The COVID Tracking Project.<a href="https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&nbsp;Deaths</a>, which lag behind increases in cases and then hospitalizations, have been on a steady rise since mid-October. The U.S. is now averaging more than 1,000 Covid deaths a day.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">TANGENT</h4>



<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/10/us/el-paso-covid-mobile-morgues/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">El Paso, Texas</a>, is dealing with an even more grim problem than hospitals reaching capacity—the city has run out of morgue space.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">FURTHER READING</h4>



<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/11/10/tulsa-has-run-out-of-icu-beds-and-el-paso-is-out-of-morgue-space-heres-the-latest-grim-toll-of-covid/?sh=78c74f022133">Tulsa Has Run Out Of ICU Beds And El Paso Is Out Of Morgue Space—Here’s The Latest Grim Toll Of Covid</a>&nbsp;(Forbes)



<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/11/10/covid-positive-nurses-allowed-to-keep-working-in-north-dakota-amid-staffing-crisis/?sh=392003af60fd">Covid-Positive Nurses Allowed To Keep Working In North Dakota Amid Staffing Crisis</a>&nbsp;(Forbes)



<a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/14/934185297/covid-19-hospitalizations-surge-in-dakotas-its-like-we-opened-up-a-spigot" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">COVID-19 Hospitalizations Surge In Dakotas: &#8216;It&#8217;s Like We Opened Up A Spigot&#8217;</a>&nbsp;(NPR)



<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/11/14/another-grim-new-record-us-tops-180000-new-infections-friday-covid-cases-rising-in-all-50-states/?sh=6c8aa7821ea5">Another Grim New Record: U.S. Tops 180,000 New Infections Friday, Covid Cases Rising In All 50 States</a> (Forbes)



-By Nicholas Reimann, Forbes Staff

COVID-19 Intensive Care Unit Within A Houston Hospital Cares For Patients As Cases Continue To Rise

Here’s Where You Can No Longer Get An ICU Bed Because Of Covid

TOPLINE: A wave of favorable economic conditions should help the S&amp;P 500 surge 15% by the end of next year, Goldman Sachs said Wednesday morning in a 39-page report outlining the firm’s outlook on everything from stocks and the economy to the Georgia Senate runoffs and monetary policy; these are some of the highlights. 



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">KEY FACTS</h4>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Goldman expects Pfizer&#8217;s coronavirus vaccine candidate—and perhaps a few others in the pipeline—to receive emergency authorization from the FDA by January, with enough doses available to vaccinate the U.S. population in the first half of next year. </li><li>That development is key to the economy’s expected <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahhansen/2020/11/09/goldman-sachs-predicts-a-v-shaped-recovery-and-a-1-trillion-stimulus-package-before-biden-inauguration/?sh=13fd5e743aab">v-shaped recovery</a>, which Goldman analysts said should continue in 2021 with estimated GDP growth of 5.3%, compared to a predicted loss of 3.9% this year. </li><li>S&amp;P 500 earnings could also rebound sharply next year, growing 29% (after tanking an estimated 17% this year), Goldman estimates, citing “extremely positive” analyst sentiment.</li><li>Goldman forecasts the Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates again until 2025—a move that encourages economic activity by keeping borrowing costs low, but heightens the systemic risks associated with massive personal, corporate and government debt loads. </li><li>The firm also believes Republicans will retain majority control of the Senate after the two Georgia runoffs in January, making it so that policy uncertainty declines amid likely gridlock—something experts say is the best-case election outcome for stocks.</li><li>Meanwhile, the bank’s strategists believe the U.S. dollar is in a “structural downtrend” and estimate it could shed 6% of its value next year, relative to <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS" target="_blank">foreign currencies</a>–which should help (perhaps counterintuitively) bolster earnings, particularly for international-facing corporations.</li></ul>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">CRUCIAL QUOTE&nbsp;</h4>



The stock market’s resilience throughout the pandemic and a divisive U.S. presidential campaign has been “remarkable,” the team of Goldman analysts—led by David J. Kostin—said Wednesday morning. “The vaccine announcement by Pfizer provided evidence that a path to normalization exists, and that should serve as a catalyst for value stock outperformance.” Growth stocks should also remain attractive, they conclude, noting that the historical slowdown in economic growth and low-interest-rate environment that have supported booming growth stocks (mostly in technology) over the past few years are unlikely to change dramatically anytime soon.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">WHAT WE DON&#8217;T KNOW</h4>



With respect to its stock market outlook, Goldman says “the path of the virus and its effects on corporate earnings remain the biggest ‘known unknown’ risks,” but despite positive results from candidate trials, “uncertainty remains regarding the safety, distribution and uptake of a vaccine—as well as its eventual impact on economic activity.” In its Financial Stability Report&nbsp;<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20201109.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">released</a>&nbsp;on Monday, the Fed said that while “prompt and forceful policy responses”—including fiscal stimulus and lower interest rates—have propped up a better-than-expected economic recovery, “investor risk sentiment could shift swiftly” if the virus isn’t contained and no further government relief is provided, especially in sectors like energy, hospitality and travel that are still very sensitive to negative Covid developments.&nbsp;



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">WHAT TO WATCH FOR</h4>



Inflation and interest rates pose a key risk going forward, Goldman said Wednesday, pointing to sky-high stock valuations that have been propped up by the “current extraordinary degree” of support from the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at historic lows that are now predicted to continue through 2025.&nbsp;



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">KEY BACKGROUND</h4>



Despite a surging stock market, key economic indicators like the labor market are still well below prepandemic levels—something Goldman notes in its Wednesday reports, and an ongoing surge in coronavirus cases domestically threatens to further dampen recovery prospects. “The next six months are going to continue to be pretty choppy,” Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/11/federal-reserve-rosengren-choppy-6-months-ahead-despite-covid-vaccine.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">said of the economic recovery</a>&nbsp;on Tuesday. “I hope that we still get a fiscal package—it’s probably not going to come as soon as we were hoping and that does mean that we’re not going to get as robust a growth over the next couple of quarters as we were hoping.”



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">FURTHER READING</h4>



<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2020/11/11/dow-stocks-market-200-points-vaccine-rally/">Stocks Up Again As Vaccine Rally Continues For A Third Day, But Uncertainty Lies Ahead</a>&nbsp;(Forbes)



<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahhansen/2020/11/10/senate-republicans-release-14-trillion-spending-plan-without-covid-19-relief-ahead-of-december-11-government-shutdown-deadline/">Senate Republicans Release $1.4 Trillion Spending Plan—Without Covid-19 Relief—Ahead Of December 11 Government Shutdown Deadline</a>&nbsp;(Forbes)



<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahhansen/2020/11/09/goldman-sachs-predicts-a-v-shaped-recovery-and-a-1-trillion-stimulus-package-before-biden-inauguration/">Goldman Sachs Predicts A V-Shaped Recovery And A $1 Trillion Stimulus Package Before Biden Inauguration</a> (Forbes)



-By Jonathan Ponciano, Forbes Staff

Healthcare professional in protective gloves & workwear holding & organising a tray of COVID-19 vaccine vials

U.S Will Have Enough Covid Vaccine Doses By Mid-2021, Plus 5 More Big Predictions From Goldman Sachs

South Africa’s minister of health, Dr Zweli Mkhize, made it clear on Tuesday evening that if a resurgence of Covid-19 is to come, South Africa is better prepared. &nbsp;



Responding to a question on whether the country will go back to a hard lockdown, at the fifth annual FORBES AFRICA Philips Future of Health Summit, the minister, who was a guest of honor, stated: “The second<a href="blank" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&nbsp;</a>Covid-19 wave has not reached us as yet. We are not immediately envisaging a lockdown level 5. We are focusing on containment measures and are encouraging others to do so.” &nbsp;



He emphasized that there will be enough warning “long before” further lockdown measures should a second wave of the pandemic strike.&nbsp;



“The possibility of another surge is a reality but we are prepared,” he said, at the virtual event themed&nbsp;Next Generation Healthcare in South Africa – Balancing Workforce Expectations &amp; Health System Realities.&nbsp;



South Africa moved to alert level one of its lockdown in September after seven months of international and interprovincial travel bans, strict curfew regulations as well as a controversial suspension of alcohol sales. Returning to a hard lockdown would result in a further crippling of South Africa’s already ailing economy. &nbsp;



“Although we have made remarkable progress, we must remember people are still getting infected and people are still losing their lives. By any measure, we are still in the midst of a deadly pandemic,” said President Cyril Ramaphosa after announcing the advancement to level one on September 16. &nbsp;



And though the president is due to address the nation this week to speak about the developments of the country’s risk-adjusted strategy to mitigate the spread of the virus according to Minister in the Presidency, Jackson Mthembu, the health minister has said that South Africa is better prepared for a second wave. &nbsp;

South African  Minister Dr Zweli Mkhize visits Clairwood Hospital in Durban ahead of the expected peak in the Province

‘Not Envisaging Lockdown Level 5’: South Africa’s Health Minister

Jeff Skoll has been funding pandemic preparedness for more than a decade, even longer than Bill Gates. In recent months, he’s increased his philanthropic giving to help combat Covid-19.



Nine years ago, Jeff Skoll’s film company Participant Media partnered with Warner Brothers to put out Contagion, a movie about a global pandemic that started with a virus from a bat. An American businesswoman (played by Gwyneth Paltrow) came home from a trip to China and unknowingly spread a novel, and at times, deadly disease. While many viewed the film as pure science fiction, Skoll had ulterior motives. He hoped the movie would help build support for funding the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and also warn the world about the potential dangers of a global pandemic.



Skoll, 55, became a billionaire just over two decades ago as a result of stock he received as eBay’s first president. He left eBay in 2001 and has since co-produced more than 100 films and TV programs, all with socially relevant themes including the climate change documentary An Inconvenient Truth featuring Al Gore, factory farming documentary Food Inc., the miniseries When They See Us and the 2016 Academy Award best picture winner Spotlight, about The Boston Globe’s investigations into child sexual abuse by Catholic priests. 



While his impassioned film-making pretty much ground to a halt temporarily with California’s shelter-in-place orders, his 2011 movie&nbsp;Contagion&nbsp;has become the must watch-at-home hit of the pandemic—it’s the number one selling title to date this year, according to Warner Brothers, the distributor. (It won’t disclose the number of times it’s been rented or sold.) In late March, Participant,&nbsp;Contagion&nbsp;screenwriter Scott Z. Burns and director Steven Soderbergh worked with Matt Damon, Kate Winslet, Laurence Fishburne and other cast members to produce public service announcements about washing your hands and staying home.



Beyond backing a movie about a pandemic, Skoll has been funding pandemic preparedness and prevention since 2009 — six years before Bill Gates’ now well known TED talk warning about them &#8212; through the Skoll Global Threats Fund, to which he pledged $100 million. (The other threats: climate change, water scarcity, nuclear weapons and conflict in the Middle East.)



Since the start of this year, Skoll has contributed an additional $200 million to his charitable foundation—$100 million of which was announced in late April and will go toward fighting Covid-19. He put the other $100 million in earlier this year, he tells Forbes, adding that he hadn’t bothered to publicize it. “I don’t see this as a money squirt,” Skoll explains. “This is a resource allocation to an area we know well. And this is an emergency.”



Newly bulked up, the Skoll Foundation promised to quadruple its grantmaking this year to $200 million. New beneficiaries in 2020 include some of the poorest folks in Los Angeles and the contact tracing program being launched across California.“This is the rainy day we’ve all been saving for,” Skoll says of his charitable giving. “If not now, when?” 



He’s been working up to 20 hours a day in his kitchen in Beverly Hills — on a call in early June, he jokes that it’s his “command center,” equipped with a couple of iPads, a MacBook and some bluetooth devices — talking to people around the globe, taking the pulse of the pandemic and searching out individuals, organizations and companies with new ideas. “Just the science, the learnings of the virus — almost every day there’s some revelation that we didn’t know,” says Skoll.&nbsp;&nbsp;



The pandemics research that Skoll started funding through the Skoll Global Threats Fund spun off into a nonprofit called Ending Pandemics in January 2018, with a seed grant from Skoll. “It’s all about early detection and rapid response,” says Ending Pandemics President Dr. Mark Smolinski.



<hr class="wp-block-separator"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Skoll has been funding pandemic preparedness and prevention since 2009 — six years before Bill Gates’ TED talk warning about them — through the Skoll Global Threats Fund, which he spun off into Ending Pandemics in 2018.</h2>



<hr class="wp-block-separator"/>



Skoll got wind of the novel coronavirus early on, back in December —where it started. “We had colleagues on the ground in Wuhan. We had an idea that a zoonotic disease had jumped to humans,” he says. By January he and his team began to be concerned about countries with trade ties to China — particularly in Africa, where some of the social entrepreneurs that the Skoll Foundation has supported are operating.&nbsp;



In early February, the Skoll Foundation made its first Covid-19 related grant: $3 million to the African Field Epidemiology Network, a group working with the African Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (the Africa CDC) to help coordinate African countries’ response and to boost surveillance and detection. The Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation donated to the same group around the same time. Beginning with those two grants, says Africa CDC Director Dr. John Nkengasong, “we were able to rally rapid responders to Addis Ababa [for training] and send them to Nigeria and Cameroon. We were able to scale up diagnostics.” Funding from others then followed, including the MasterCard foundation, Germany, Sweden, the U.K. and the U.S.  



In &nbsp;March&nbsp; it made a grant to the Southern African Center for Infectious Disease Surveillance Foundation (SACIDS) and a similar group in East Africa. One outcome: Mozambique, which had the infrastructure to test for Covid-19 but limited money to buy tests, got the needed funds and ramped up testing four-fold, according to Smolinski.&nbsp;



The Skoll foundation’s next move was to quickly create a fund for both its current and past grantees — mostly social entrepreneurs. Sixty-four organizations were given $50,000 grants. “We figured they would need emergency funding,” Skoll explains.



Though the Skoll Foundation has traditionally supported social entrepreneurs who work in lower income countries, in the past few months it has made some donations closer to home. Because Los Angeles County has been particularly hard hit by the pandemic, Skoll reached out to Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti to offer assistance. In late April, his foundation made a $2 million gift to the Mayor’s Fund for Los Angeles, which is providing cash assistance to families hit hardest by Covid-19. 



Skoll also connected with California Governor Gavin Newsom and his senior advisor on social innovation, Kathleen Kelly Janus. The Skoll Foundation is donating $8 million to support California’s response to Covid-19, starting with $4.1 million for the public awareness campaign around contact tracing, which Janus says “will be really critical to preventing a second wave of Covid-19.”&nbsp;



Smolinski’s team, which had already partnered with Harvard and Boston Children’s Hospital to build a crowdsourced symptom reporting tracker called Flu Near You in 2012 to show flu trends in neighborhoods and cities, rolled out Covid Near You in early March. The app lets people anonymously report if they’re feeling healthy or not, with zip code info, as  a way to track current and potential hotspots. 



<hr class="wp-block-separator"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Skoll’s Ending Pandemics has partnered with governments and public health authorities in 36 countries — 11 of which have surveillance systems tracking Covid-19 and other infectious diseases.</h2>



<hr class="wp-block-separator"/>



Ending Pandemics has partnered with governments and public health authorities in 36 countries — 11 of which have surveillance systems that Smolinski says are “up to speed.” One is Cambodia, a country of 14 million people, where all four telecom companies support a free mobile app that both receives info about disease and provides information. Calls have gone from 600 a day before the pandemic to 15,000, and the vast majority of the Covid-19 cases in the country were first identified through the hotline, Smolinski says. Cambodia, the country that took in a cruise ship no one else wanted, so far has just 129 cases and no deaths, he adds.



Through the Audacious Project, a philanthropic group with about 30 members launched by TED conference curator Chris Anderson with Jeff Skoll and Richard Branson, Skoll and others are supporting Boston-based Partners in Health, which responded to the Ebola crisis in 2014. The multi-million dollar grant from the Audacious Project enables Partners in Health to share its contact tracing expertise over the coming year with roughly 19 public health departments across the U.S. “We started by helping the state of Massachusetts put together a contact tracing system, and everyone else wanted to know what we were doing,” says Joia Mukherjee, Chief Medical Officer of Partners In Health. “This funding has allowed us to expand our team. What we are hoping is that state and federal money will be forthcoming.” 



Mukherjee applauds Skoll’s approach to philanthropy. “Jeff has always been a systems thinker, and that has been transformative for Partners In Health,” she says.&nbsp;



Skoll also contributed funding to an ambitious global project called the Global Infectious Disease Epidemiology Network — GIDEoN for short —being spearheaded by Columbia University epidemiologist Ian Lipkin, who directs the university’s Center for Infection and Immunity. Lipkin has lined up the equivalent of the National Institutes of Health in 12 countries including India, Brazil and China and together they’ll share information about outbreaks and disease samples. With GIDEoN,&nbsp; Lipkin explains, “we’re trying to upgrade the capacity for detecting infectious agents and toxins, particularly in the developing world.”&nbsp;



While Skoll has been involved in global philanthropy for nearly two decades, he now has an even more personal reason for being involved in the fight against deadly diseases. While working on Ebola in 2014, he contracted a rare tropical disease that took two years to diagnose. He took an 18 month medical leave of absence and is feeling better now.



Despite many challenges, Skoll is an optimist, even about pandemics. Yes, the number of cases will likely increase as U.S. states open back up, he says. But he’s hopeful that a treatment for Covid-19-an existing drug—can work and be scaled up for distribution sometime this summer. “I hope we can get the solutions in place in the next few months. I see a path to it,” he says.



As for future pandemics, Skoll sees a silver lining.  “There are so many zoonotic viruses that jump over from animals to humans. Most of them peter out and turn into something less lethal. I don’t think it’s likely that we’ll see any terrible new pandemic any time soon, says Skoll.  “If anything, the world is on watch now.”



&#8211; <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/">Kerry A. Dolan</a>, Forbes Staff, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/worlds-billionaires">Billionaires</a>

gettyimages-823728672-594×594

How The Billionaire Behind The Movie ‘Contagion’ Is Working To Stop This Pandemic—And The Next One

Here are five big numbers that show Amazon <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.forbes.com/companies/amazon" target="_blank">AMZN</a> <a href="https://www.forbes.com/companies/amazon">-3.7%</a>’s explosive growth during the pandemic which has hurt much of the retail world.



$570 billion



That’s how much Amazon’s market capitalization has gained so far in 2020. At the start of the year, the e-commerce giant sported a valuation of around $920 billion. After the stock bounced back from the coronavirus market sell-off in March and hit new record highs, the company is now worth $1.49 trillion. That makes Amazon one of the largest companies in the world, trailing only Microsoft&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/companies/microsoft" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">MSFT</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/companies/microsoft">-4.3%</a>, worth $1.54 trillion, and Apple&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/companies/apple" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">AAPL</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/companies/apple">-4.6%</a>, worth $1.61 trillion.



63.3%



Amazon’s stock has increased by more than 60% this year and now trading at around $3,000 per share. It bottomed out at around $1,600 in mid-March as the stock market plunged amid widespread business shutdowns due to the coronavirus pandemic. The stock has since roared back from its March low, closing above $3,000 per share for the first time on July 6. There are several reasons to explain the stock’s “meteoric rise,” according to Morningstar&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/companies/morningstar" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">MORN</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/companies/morningstar">+0.5%</a>&nbsp;analyst R. J. Hottovy. “Heightened Prime member engagement (especially for online grocery services)” and strong usage rates for its cloud business, Amazon Web Services (AWS). Morningstar assigns the stock a fair value estimate of $2,750 per share.



$178.5 billion



Bezos, who currently owns an 11.1% stake in Amazon, has seen his net worth surge by more than 50% so far in 2020. He is the world’s richest person: Forbes estimates his <a href="https://www.forbes.com/profile/jeff-bezos/?list=rtb/#384653071b23">net worth</a> at $178.5 billion, up from $114.7 billion at the end of 2019. The second richest person is Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, with a net worth of $113 billion.



$75 billion



That’s at least how much revenue analysts are expecting from Amazon when it reports second quarter earnings next week on July 30. But Morningstar says (as is the case with many big tech stocks today), the market has moved back to a “growth-over-profitability” mindset when it comes to Amazon. The company is expected to report at least $4 billion in coronavirus-related expenses, which could pressure the company’s operating profits, according to Hottovy. Since April, Amazon and Bezos have <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/angelauyeung/2020/07/08/jeff-bezos-net-worth-hits-all-time-high-of-more-than-180-billion/#2c2a2d3f24ff">faced backlash</a> over inadequate safety and working conditions amid the coronavirus which had led to worker protests. The company has since pledged to spend more money on revamping health and safety protocols in the workplace.



$3,800 per share



Analysts at investment firms Jefferies and Goldman <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.forbes.com/companies/goldman-sachs-group" target="_blank">GS</a> <a href="https://www.forbes.com/companies/goldman-sachs-group">-1.4%</a> Sachs have both raised their Amazon price targets to $3,800 per share. That’s the highest estimate on the Street. Both firms cited Amazon’s booming e-commerce business—including sustained online sales growth in North America—and large potential upside from its growth in its cloud segment, AWS. According to Goldman analysts, data from Mastercard <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.forbes.com/companies/mastercard" target="_blank">MA</a> <a href="https://www.forbes.com/companies/mastercard">-1.1%</a> indicates that Amazon’s e-commerce segment <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/amazon-stock-upside-street-high-price-target-goldman-sachs-tie-2020-7-1029410889#" target="_blank">grew by 93%</a> year-over-year in May.



 &#8211; <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/">Sergei Klebnikov</a>, Forbes Staff, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/markets">Markets</a>

gettyimages-450831356-594×594

5 Big Numbers That Show Amazon’s Explosive Growth During The Coronavirus Pandemic

With Covid-19 emphasizing the human element in advertising, brands should re-evaluate their strategies and reframe their messaging to stay relevant. Saying nothing is wrong too, add experts.



“How do we respond to the biggest global conversation taking place?” asks Robert Grace, Founding Partner: Head Of Strategy, at M&amp;C Saatchi Abel, an integrated advertising agency with branches across Africa. “How are you actually going to match what you’re talking about with action?”



This is where advertising’s role becomes interesting, far from simply acting like a loudspeaker to products, or putting out mushy messages to engender brand loyalty.



How has marketing had to help brands pivot their messaging at this time?



The global pandemic is influencing every aspect of life. “I’ve never heard the word ‘unprecedented’ used so much. We’ve used so much hyperbolic language in this time,” says Grace.



From changing work cultures, to countries in lockdown facing economic crises, Covid-19 is impacting everyone in tangible ways. For agencies and by extension, brands, to pretend it’s not happening or go on with business as normal, reads as tone-deaf at best and disingenuous and ruthless at worst.



With that in mind, some brands have opted for silence, fearful of saying the wrong thing at the wrong time. “Saying the wrong thing is unforgivable – the consumer is smarter than they’ve ever been. You could have been in the right place but one wrong move could send you backwards,” explains Khuthala Gala-Holten, Managing Director at Joe Public in Johannesburg.



The risk of saying the wrong thing is paired with the risk of saying nothing at all. “Many brands have paused spending now, which is not the best thing to do, because people expect brands to play a role. 88% of consumers want brands to talk to them now,” says Shaun Frazao, Head of Digital at Wavemaker. The data backs this up – according to email service provider Everlytic, their March 2020 open rate was really high: 55.3 million unique opens.



Others that are still “talking” are dramatically pivoting on their marketing messages and communications.



“Whatever you say has to be authentic and not seen as a marketing opportunity,” explains Grace.



“There are some brands that should be going into quarantine over this period – don’t use this ‘opportunity’ to sell, rather use the time to refine your strategy. So that when you go back into the market, you demonstrate that you’ve understood what consumers will be wanting from your brand.”



Gala-Holten adds: “Strategy first – what are the guardrails? Sometimes clients have several agencies. So you really need to empower them with guardrails. This is now the ‘new normal’ – we will never be the same. From the creative perspective, in a way, it’s very exciting.”



Across sub-Saharan Africa, we’re seeing six key themes in communications and advertising, explains Frazao (see sidebar). “Consumer centricity needs to be first. Brands that are communicating now are looking long-term, to build trust, and not short-term at the sales they could make.”



Every agency interviewed for this article has seen a combination of two trends: contracts shrinking as businesses struggle to make money, and a shift to digital marketing. “The way business has been done will change in the advertising world. We have been moving gradually to a very focused marketing landscape, and this will be the tipping point to push them into that realm at a faster pace,” says Darren Leishman, CEO of Spitfire Inbound.



For digital agencies or agencies with digital service offerings, this shift has been less painful, but agencies with offerings like TV ads (that require crew and a studio to shoot in) and eventing (where large groups of people meet) are the hardest hit.



“People are spending more time online and media figures are reflecting higher views than normal for online ads. Clients are cutting spend in offline channels in favor of online ones. However, most brands remain very cautious with marketing spend in general at this time,” says Brian Carter, Executive Creative Director at Digitas Liquorice.



Clint Paterson, CEO at sport and entertainment agency Levergy, adds: “New behaviors and lifestyles will take root, but it’s critically important to remember, people’s passions won’t die. The role of the brand or event owner becomes one of adaption here, how can relationships be reinterpreted, reinvented and reimagined to generate the kind of connection with audiences appropriate to this new normality?”



Grace puts it another way: “Any cracks you had before Covid-19 will turn into gaping holes.”



Diana Springer, Partner: Head of Strategy for strategic consultancy Black &amp; White, adds marketing as a whole has become increasingly performance-based and goal-orientated. But in unforeseen times, “brands have to reframe what they’re measuring,” says Springer. “Otherwise, they can lose relevance. You have to change how you define success to shift your strategy. This pandemic is really making us consider the fundamentals.”



<hr class="wp-block-separator"/>



‘6 Marketing Themes FOR This Time’



Shaun Frazao, Head of Digital at Wavemaker, advises six key pandemic-driven themes in marketing for Africa:



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Supporting the frontline workers</li><li>Repurposing production (instead of making products, brands are making products to help their consumer, such as South African Breweries donating alcohol to make hand-sanitizer)</li><li>Helping the vulnerable</li><li>Health messages (posters on social distancing, Pick n Pay’s message to avoid panic buying, and SA Tourism advising people to travel later)</li><li>Making staying at home easier (brands are trying to be empathetic by making staying at home easier, like Vumatel increasing internet speed for free)</li><li>Distributing positivity (Nandos’ latest ad is all about remaining positive, and Nike did something similar).</li></ul>







&#8211; Samantha Steele

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Why It Must All Ad Up

A new research paper from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology estimates that blocking out the middle seat on airplanes could cause the likelihood of passengers being infected with coronavirus to drop by nearly half, just as some airlines are starting to book flights to capacity again.



KEY FACTS



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>According to the MIT paper (which has not been peer reviewed) the chances of catching coronavirus from a nearby passenger on a full airplane when all coach seats are filled is about <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.02.20143826v2.full.pdf" target="_blank">1 in 4,300</a>.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>However, those odds drop to 1 in 7,700 when all the middle seats on board are left empty, the paper states.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Taking into account a <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.02.20143826v2.full.pdf" target="_blank">1% mortality rate</a> according to the statistical model, the likelihood of dying from a coronavirus case contracted on a plane is far more likely than dying in a <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.02.20143826v2.full.pdf" target="_blank">plane crash</a>, which has odds of about 1 in 34 million, the paper stated. </li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>In “Covid-19 Risk Among Airline Passengers: Should the Middle Seat Stay Empty?” the author of the study, Arnold Barnett, wrote that his analysis aims to be “<a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.02.20143826v2.full.pdf" target="_blank">a rough approximation</a>” of the risks involved in flying during the coronavirus pandemic.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>“The airlines are setting their own policies but the airlines and the public should know about the <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/filling-middle-seats-nearly-doubles-airline-passenger-risk-of-catching-covid-19-says-mit-researcher/" target="_blank">risk implications</a> of their choices,&#8221; Barnett told ZDNet this week.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>The paper comes just as more flight carriers, like <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/06/27/american-airlines-ditches-social-distancing-will-book-planes-at-full-capacity/#654a11ea3b9a">American Airlines</a>, begin booking flights to full capacity despite surges of the virus across the country. </li></ul>



KEY BACKGROUND



The coronavirus pandemic has been disastrous for the travel industry, and has especially hurt airlines. Major American carriers including American, Delta and United have asked employees to <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/07/08/united-airlines-warns-that-it-could-layoff-36000-employees/#1f5870d93afb">take buyouts</a> and early retirement, Forbes reported, in a bid to cut costs as the pandemic causes them to bleed cash. United Airlines warned this week that it could be forced to furlough <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/07/08/united-airlines-warns-that-it-could-layoff-36000-employees/#6a9425d73afb">36,000 jobs</a>, or nearly half of its American workers, starting in October if travel doesn’t pick up. In April, the airline estimated that in the first quarter it lost <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2020/04/20/united-airlines-first-quarter-loss/#36db1a0196ef">$2.1 billion</a> pre-tax, Forbes reported, and was losing <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2020/04/20/united-airlines-first-quarter-loss/#36db1a0196ef">$100 million</a> a day in the last half of March. Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun said in May he expects a major airline to go <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/isabeltogoh/2020/05/12/boeing-ceo-warns-a-major-airline-will-most-likely-go-out-of-business-this-year-because-of-coronavirus/#660d73342b4b">out of business</a> in 2020 as a result of pandemic pressure.



NEWS PEG



American Airlines announced two weeks ago it would begin <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/06/27/american-airlines-ditches-social-distancing-will-book-planes-at-full-capacity/#654a11ea3b9a">booking middle seats</a> again starting in July, although the carrier will allow passengers to switch from a full flight without any extra cost, Forbes reported. <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/06/27/american-airlines-ditches-social-distancing-will-book-planes-at-full-capacity/#370f46303b9a">United</a> is also selling tickets for middle seats. American Airlines took flak earlier this month when Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) tweeted a picture of his <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://twitter.com/SenJeffMerkley/status/1278782271986831360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1279139143117832192%7Ctwgr%5E&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wusa9.com%2Farticle%2Fnews%2Fverify%2Fverify-airplane-safety-coronavirus-major-airlines-policies%2F65-5872a38d-42fe-4940-be04-eb67de1fe0c3" target="_blank">crowded flight</a>. 



<figure class="wp-block-embed-twitter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">.<a href="https://twitter.com/AmericanAir?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AmericanAir</a>: how many Americans will die bc you fill middle seats, w/ your customers shoulder to shoulder, hour after hour. This is incredibly irresponsible. People eat &amp; drink on planes &amp; must take off masks to do so. No way you aren’t facilitating spread of COVID infections. <a href="https://t.co/PWG5macqgC">pic.twitter.com/PWG5macqgC</a>&mdash; Senator Jeff Merkley (@SenJeffMerkley) <a href="https://twitter.com/SenJeffMerkley/status/1278782271986831360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 2, 2020</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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WHAT TO WATCH



If airlines continue to extend their policy of keeping middle seats blocked off or if they’ll be forced to book to capacity to turn a profit. <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://twitter.com/SouthwestAir/status/1280932162854948866" target="_blank">Southwest</a> and <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://twitter.com/Delta/status/1278352078784671744" target="_blank">Delta</a> have both committed to keeping their middle <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://twitter.com/Delta/status/1278352078784671744" target="_blank">seats</a> blocked off until at least the end of September, while <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2020/06/26/airlines-tried-social-distancing-board-many-that-experiment-is-ending/" target="_blank">JetBlue</a> will do the same through July, according to the Washington Post.



&#8211; <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/">Carlie Porterfield</a>, Forbes Staff, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/business">Business</a>

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Leaving Airplane Middle Seats Empty Could Cut Coronavirus Risk Almost In Half, A Study Says

South Africa records its first two Coronavirus deaths. In a tweet Dr Zweli Mkhize, Minister of Health, issued a statement on the deaths that occurred in the province of Western Cape. The minister further stated that the number of confirmed cases in the country has tipped over the 1000 mark.



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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">It is with deep sadness that we announce two loss of lives to <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/coronavirus?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#coronavirus</a> . We will update with more details <a href="https://t.co/WXUORwjjHL">pic.twitter.com/WXUORwjjHL</a>&mdash; Zweli Mkhize (@DrZweliMkhize) <a href="https://twitter.com/DrZweliMkhize/status/1243432995492638723?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 27, 2020</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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READ MORE | <a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/economy/2020/03/23/coronavirus-south-africa-imposes-21-day-lockdown-after-confirmed-covid-19-cases-rise-by-128-to-402/">#Coronavirus: South Africa Imposes 21 Day Lockdown After Confirmed COVID-19 Cases Rise By 128 to 402</a> 



The country is currently on Day 1 of a 21 day nationwide lockdown imposed by President Cyril Ramaphosa on Monday, 23rd of March as a measure that the government would be taking to combat COVID-19. “The National Coronavirus Command Council has forced a nationwide lockdown for 21 days with effect at midnight on Thursday March 26, 2020” said the president.



This is a developing story and details will be updated as new information is available.

Tag: Coronavirus deaths

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