The country’s National and Provincial Elections marked a significant shift in the political landscape, this as the African National Congress (ANC) lost its parliamentary majority for the first time, along with the rapid rise of the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party, among others.



The 2024 elections in South Africa have been described by some as the most hotly-contested since the end of apartheid in 1994. The results have ushered in a new era of coalition politics, challenging the dominance of the African National Congress (ANC) and highlighting the rapid emergence of the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party.



For the first time in 30 years, the ANC has lost its parliamentary majority, securing only 40.18% of the National Assembly vote and the most of the 400 available seats. This represents a significant drop from its previous standing, necessitating coalition talks with parties such as Democratic Alliance (DA) and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), to form a stable government.



The rise of the MK Party, led by former president Jacob Zuma, has been a remarkable development in South African politics.



Gustavo de Carvalho, a Senior Researcher on African governance and diplomacy at the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA), explains to FORBES AFRICA that “the rise of the MK Party as the third-largest political party in South Africa is largely reflective of the internal conflicts and factional behaviors within the ANC over the past 15 years”.



“This development is significant as it creates a major split for the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and requires the party to rethink how to reach out to those bases,” he adds.



The MK Party secured 14.58% of the national vote and has become the largest party in KZN, although it fell short of an outright majority in the province. This shift underscores the fragmentation of the traditional ANC electorate.



The MK Party’s success has largely come at the expense of the ANC and EFF, both of which have seen a significant decline in support. There have been concerns about potential unrest in KZN, particularly due to Zuma’s comments challenging the election results and alleged vote rigging. The authorities are closely watching the situation to prevent any escalation of violence and to maintain peace as the political landscape continues to shift.



Voter turnout was another critical aspect of this election, with a participation rate of 58.64%, down from 66% in the previous elections.



“The lower turnout is due to several issues. Many still feel disenchanted with the options provided to them and are reluctant to vote for any party. This is a similar declining trend we have seen in South Africa for at least ten years,” De Carvalho notes.



The IEC (Independent Electoral Commission) reported handling 579 objections and 24 recounts, none of which were significant enough to alter the election outcome. Despite the objections and accusations of vote-rigging from some quarters, the IEC maintained that the elections were free and fair.



“The IEC’s handling of the election has been commendable despite minor glitches,” says de Carvalho.



“Their emphasis on accuracy and speed, even with the additional ballot, demonstrates their commitment to maintaining the integrity of the elections. This should positively impact public trust in the electoral process.”



The election has set the stage for a period of coalition governance, with significant challenges and opportunities ahead.



De Carvalho highlights the complexity of forming these coalitions, noting, “Parties will consider how these coalitions will impact their ideological stances, particularly identifying views of the ANC that may oppose their own. The DA and the IFP (Inkatha Freedom Party) seem to be more pragmatic than ideological in their approaches, while the MK has specific demands related to the Ramaphosa-Zuma battle.”



Coalition talks are currently underway, with the ANC engaging in discussions with both the EFF and DA.



The provincial results further underscore the shift in South Africa’s political landscape. In Gauteng, the ANC lost its majority, securing only 36.48% of the vote, followed by the DA with 26.63% and the EFF with 12.47%.



In KZN, the MK Party emerged as the largest party with 45.93% of the vote, followed by the ANC with 17.62% and the IFP with 16.28%.



“I grew up loving the ANC because of how they fought for the freedom we have today,” says Skhumbuzo Mnyandu, a business owner from KwaMashu.



“But this year, I have changed because of the problems with the ruling party, and so I have become a member of the MK Party.”



The Western Cape remains under the control of the DA, which secured 53.05% of the vote, while the ANC garnered 21.34%. The Northern Cape is also set for coalition politics, with the ANC losing its outright majority in the province.



President Cyril Ramaphosa, in his address at the IEC Election Results Announcement, called for unity and cooperation, stating, “The people of South Africa expect their leaders to work together to meet their needs. They expect the parties for which they have voted to find common ground, to overcome their differences, to act and work together for the good of everyone.”



The final seat allocations in the National Assembly reflect the new political reality: the ANC holds 159 seats, the DA 87, the MK Party 58, and the EFF 39. Other parties like the IFP, the Patriotic Alliance (PA), and the Freedom Front Plus (VF Plus) have also secured notable representation.



As South Africa navigates this new political landscape, the emphasis remains on working together for the good of the country. The 2024 elections have not only redefined the political dynamics, with the future of the country now hinging on the ability of its leaders to navigate these changes and build a government that truly reflects the will of the people.

ANC Fails To Win Majority For First Time Since 1994

South Africa: The Era Of Coalition Politics Begins

South Africa is in the midst of a historic election as votes have been counted and are still being captured and finalized, with nearly 80% tallied so far. This election marks the most competitive since the country’s first democratic vote in 1994, posing a real challenge to the long-standing rule of the African National Congress (ANC).



For the first time, the ANC faces significant competition, particularly in the country’s KwaZulu-Natal province, from the newly-formed uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party led by former President Jacob Zuma, named after the armed wing of the ANC under apartheid. Despite its recent establishment, the party has experienced tremendous growth, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with the current political landscape, with the party appearing to cannibalize votes from the ruling ANC.



This election encompasses municipal, provincial, and national ballots, raising the real possibility of coalition governments. Record levels of voter turnout have been reported, with some people queuing until midnight to cast their votes. Notably, in the run-up to the election, South Africa has experienced its longest period without loadshedding (power outage) in recent memory, providing some respite to voters and hinting at the pressing issues influencing their choices.



Chief Electoral Officer Sy Mamabolo of the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) expressed satisfaction with the electoral process, stating to media at the Results Operating Center (ROC) in Johannesburg: “We are pleased with the high turnout and the smooth running of the voting process. Every citizen who made an effort to be at the voting station was given the opportunity to vote.” He emphasized the IEC’s commitment to ensuring every vote counts and maintaining the integrity of the electoral process.



Mamabolo also addressed the high turnout, noting: “Evidently, we are in for a higher turnout than we had in 2019, which is why it is the singular intention of the commission to ensure that every voter who is in the queue is given an opportunity to record their political choice.”



Despite minor delays and technical issues at some polling stations, the IEC reported no major irregularities. The country’s stagnant economic growth and high levels of corruption have fueled voter turnout and the rise of smaller parties such as Build One South Africa (BOSA) and Rise Mzansi, challenging the traditional dominance of the ANC and the Democratic Alliance (DA).



As the results continue to come in, the ANC’s majority is genuinely threatened. If coalitions become necessary, it could dramatically change the political landscape at every level of government in South Africa.



Mamabolo assured the public that the vote counting process would be both swift and accurate. “The commission is careful not to take long to get to a point where they declare results. We balance two imperatives: accuracy and speed, to ensure the country is not left in a politically tenuous situation,” he stated.



The election day (May 29) itself was not without its challenges. Long queues and occasional technical difficulties tested the patience of voters. In some areas, delays were caused by problems with voter roll machines and the late arrival of ballot papers. However, these issues did not deter South Africans from exercising their democratic rights. Voters in urban areas, particularly in Gauteng and the Western Cape, reported a late surge in turnout, keeping polling stations busy until the very last minute.



The high voter turnout is a testament to the public’s desire for change and accountability. Many South Africans have expressed frustration over the persistent issues of unemployment, crime, and corruption. This election has given voice to these concerns, with voters seeking alternatives to the status quo. The emergence of new political entities and the potential for coalition governments reflect a more dynamic and possibly fragmented political future. 



Looking ahead, the final results of this election will set the stage for South Africa’s political trajectory. Whether the ANC manages to retain its majority or is forced to form alliances, the implications will be profound. A shift in power dynamics could lead to significant policy changes and a re-evaluation of governance strategies. South Africa stands at a crossroads, with the potential for a new era of political collaboration and reform on the horizon. Mamabolo stated that results are likely to be finalized over the course of the weekend.

South Africans Await Results In National Election

South Africa’s Historic Polls: Unprecedented Voter Turnout And A Possible Turning Point In 30th Year Of Democracy

With the country’s democratic voting process set to take place later this week, FORBES AFRICA speaks to several analysts about the mindset of the citizens and what may unfold in the coming days.



As South Africa prepares to head to the polls on May 29, social media has been abuzz with rhetoric and political memes in equal measure. But despite the light-hearted approach to the challenges they face, South Africans know that the decisions made later this week are no laughing matter.



A MarkData poll released by eNCA on May 20, showed that the ruling party is likely to receive 43.4% of the national vote. The figure is slightly higher than that of the Ipsos opinion poll from April that had the ANC attaining 40.2%.



“This is the party which liberated the country, which ended apartheid. This is the party which gave many voters their first house, electrification, running water, the opportunity of freedom. And I think that still lingers for many voters, certainly older voters,” says election analyst, Wayne Sussman, who was involved in the MarkData study.



The past few years have seen the unemployment rate soar, with it standing at 32.9% in the first quarter of 2024, numerous allegations of corruption and obstruction of justice, and 332 days&nbsp;of load shedding in 2023 alone. Yet, the ANC still has a significant element going for them, according to political analyst Asanda Ngoasheng.



“The ANC continues to have the widest range of policies that cover the widest range of South Africans. They have a lot of diverse representation within them.”



Despite the governing party appealing to the broadest sphere of the population, many voters remain undecided as to where to cast their ballot.



“To a large extent, people do not feel close to political parties in the same way as they once did,” explains Collette Schulz-Herzenberg, an associate professor in the department of political science at the Stellenbosch University.



“Party identification has declined across the electorates. There&#8217;s just less people with a party identification. And we know from global studies that party identifiers are more likely to vote because they are motivated to do so.”



“The ANC has hurt the South African electorate so much that they mistrust it,” notes Ngoasheng.



“People don&#8217;t believe the government when it says loadshedding is over or when it says they&#8217;ve solved XYZ. We almost live in a situation of permanently waiting for the other shoe to drop. Even when there is potentially good news, people kind of wait for like, well, what&#8217;s the negative that&#8217;s going to come out of it?”



“What we&#8217;ve seen is that people tend to leave the ANC because they just feel dissatisfied with the performance of the party in government, but they don&#8217;t necessarily switch their vote to an opposition party,” explains Schulz-Herzenberg.



Despite past trends, those contesting the elections — especially first-time candidates — will be hoping the discontent motivates voters to try something new.



“There are 52 parties in the ballot. We’re in a very fragmented environment, and there&#8217;s a scenario that the five biggest parties in Parliament will all go backwards in this election,” Sussman says.



A showdown is expected in KwaZulu-Natal where former President Jacob Zuma is likely to take away votes from both the ANC and EFF with the Umkhonto weSizwe (MK) party.



“MK will be the big story in this election, even if they don&#8217;t reach their potential,” says Sussman. Based on the previously-mentioned MarkData predictions, the party will achieve 46.4% of the provincial vote.



It also remains to be seen whether the DA maintains its national position as the official opposition, or whether a loss of support will pivot the EFF to that spot.



“Rise Mzansi seem to be capturing quite a lot of the middle class vote across the racial line, which is interesting to observe considering that most Africans vote along racial lines,” says Ngoasheng.

South African Election Campaign Posters

A Look Ahead As South Africans Prepare For 2024 Elections

Nelson Mandela passed away on December 5 2013. A decade on, what has changed.



Today marks a decade since the loss of Nelson Mandela, South Africa&#8217;s emblematic hero, anti-apartheid champion, and a figure of global reverence. Mandela&#8217;s passing, a moment of profound national and international mourning, has become a pivotal point of reflection, particularly as his envisioned ‘Rainbow Nation’ South Africa remains elusive as the country grapples with severe socioeconomic and political challenges.



Professor Jonathan Jansen, Professor of Education at Stellenbosch University and a respected political columnist, reflects on this shift: &#8220;While Nelson Mandela is held in high esteem across the country, it&#8217;s true that with time, the intensity of commemoration fades. This is true for everyone, not just for the great man himself.&#8221;



Mandela&#8217;s contested legacy surfaces in the Nelson Mandela Foundation&#8217;s bold initiative – an interactive exhibition titled Mandela is Dead hosted in collaboration with The Forge and Stellenbosch University at the Nelson Mandela Centre of Memory in Houghton, Johannesburg.



The show encapsulates the growing debate over whether it&#8217;s time to reevaluate Mandela&#8217;s enduring influence on South African society and politics. The exhibition, which launched on the eve of December, attempts to nuance the legacy of the iconic leader.



&#8220;In the past few years, there has been a lot of contention around the meaning of Mandela&#8217;s legacy. Students and intellectuals are debating whether he was truly a &#8216;miracle maker.&#8217; Some criticize him for giving too much to F.W. de Klerk and the apartheid government [during the transition to democracy]. Others represent a more intellectual view, similar to that expressed by someone like [historian] Colin Bundy, which acknowledges his great impact despite his own challenges,&#8221; Jansen observes.



A symbol of resistance and reconciliation, Mandela led the African National Congress (ANC) through the darkest days of apartheid and shepherded the nation into a democratic era – notably, without a major civil conflict that much of the world saw as a foregone conclusion. His vision was of a non-racial, prosperous, and democratic South Africa, ideals that now face scrutiny amid the country&#8217;s lingering socio-economic crises.



&#8220;There is no longer an unconditional celebration of Mandela. His legacy is now viewed through both cynical and pragmatic lenses, considering all his complexities, including his weaknesses. With the current challenges the country faces, it&#8217;s hard to conjure up an image of a flawless leader, especially when basic services are lacking, and there are ongoing issues like loadshedding, children dying due to poor sanitation. This contrasts sharply with the spirit of the first decade following liberation, which was about moving from liberation to survival,&#8221; Jansen adds.



South Africa today wrestles with profound challenges: state capture, frequent power outages and rampant unemployment plague the nation. These issues starkly contrast with Mandela’s dream, spotlighting the gaps between his aspirations and the current realities. In his own desire to ensure a non-violent transition to democracy in South Africa, Mandela made accommodations that some see as allowing the structures of inequality under apartheid to continue to exist.



&#8220;His legacy has done nothing but keep the poor poor and the rich rich, freedom is not free,” reads one message written by a university student on a message board that formed part of the Mandela Is Dead exhibition, which provided a canvas for the reflections of South Africa’s youth, revealing a deepening rift between Mandela’s vision and the contemporary South African experience.



While Robben Island, Mandela&#8217;s long-term prison home, commemorated his legacy with a running event, the broader national observance was muted, highlighted only by a solidarity march for Palestinians in Pretoria. At the time of publishing, neither the ANC nor the Presidency of Cyril Ramaphosa had issued a commemoration of the day.



Mandela&#8217;s ANC, once the unchallenged political force in South Africa, faces the prospect of losing majorities in key provinces in the upcoming general election. This potential shift signals a transformation in public sentiment and perhaps a reevaluation of Mandela’s influence in contemporary South African politics.



&#8220;I&#8217;ve noticed a sentiment among my comrades, who are saying that the country has strayed far from its path. They question the point of celebrating the achievements of great men from 30 years ago,” continues Jansen. “Even people who were cabinet ministers under Mandela feel this way. The public mood has shifted. The unfettered celebration of Mandela as a great man isn&#8217;t as common anymore, except in smaller, more insular communities.”



As South Africa confronts these realities, the Mandela is Dead exhibition is a call to action, echoing his granddaughter Ndileka Mandela&#8217;s words at the exhibition launch, “South Africa belongs to all who live in it. Let us reclaim it.”



Malala Yousafzai, a global advocate for girls&#8217; education and the youngest-ever Nobel Prize laureate, delivered a poignant and impactful speech at the Nelson Mandela Annual Lecture, coinciding with the 10th anniversary. She drew parallels between her struggle and Mandela’s legacy of justice and equality: &#8220;Millions of Afghan girls are effectively imprisoned but they fight on, calling for justice, calling for the world to stand with them.&#8221; 



Her words echo Mandela’s lifelong commitment to fighting injustice and underscore the ongoing global struggle for human rights and equality.

A group of American and South African students, aged from 11 to 19, met with Nelson Mandela at the Nelson Mandela Foundation in Johannesburg, on 2 June 2009. This is part of a series of activities ahead of Mandela Day on 18 July.

Nelson Mandela: Reflections On The 10th Anniversary Of The Former South African President’s Passing

South Africa&#8217;s National Assembly has voted in favor of suspending diplomatic relations with Israel, including closing its embassy, in response to the ongoing conflict in Gaza. This significant political move reflects escalating tensions and calls for a ceasefire and peace negotiations.



South Africa’s National Assembly voted yesterday to suspend diplomatic ties with Israel, as well as the closure of the Israeli embassy within the country, due to Israel’s continued war against Hamas in Palestine. The vote, which came hours after Israel recalled its ambassador to South Africa, passed with 248 votes in favor and 91 against. However, the vote is not binding unless enforced by President Cyril Ramaphosa.



The vote, initiated by opposition party Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and supported by the ruling African National Congress (ANC), called for a suspension of all diplomatic ties with Israel until a ceasefire is reached. Earlier this week during a virtual summit of the BRICS nations, chaired by President Ramaphosa, it issued a statement condemning attacks on civilians in Palestine.



The move was welcomed by the South African branch of the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement. “There is no role for diplomacy with a settler-colonial apartheid state that is guilty of genocide against a population that it occupies,” said SA BDS Coordinator Roshan Dadoo to FORBES AFRICA. “South Africa should not be having relations with a state that perpetrates war crimes with impunity, and treats the United Nations, international law, and the rest of the world with utter disdain.”



However, the National Assembly’s vote was not appreciated by all parties. The South African Jewish Board of Deputies (SAJBD) condemned the vote as pointless in light of Israel’s withdrawal of its ambassador for consultations, and condemned the chanting of “from the river to the sea” by some members of parliament “a chant which calls for the destruction of the only Jewish state, makes a mockery of the ANC’s stated position of supporting a two-state solution,” said Professor Karen Milner of the SAJBD in a statement.



Both the Israeli ambassadors’ recall as well as the National Assembly vote indicate a further breakdown in diplomatic relations between Israel and South Africa, which has historically had strong political, historical, and ideological ties to Palestinians. The ANC-led government has long condemned the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the treatment of Palestinians in Gaza, and it remains to be seen how this recent development will impact the already strained relations.



The resolution, titled ‘Closure of the Israel Embassy in South Africa and suspension of all diplomatic relations with Israel’, was presented by Julius Malema of the EFF. This parliamentary decision, while symbolic, reflects a long-standing stance of the South African government since Nelson Mandela&#8217;s presidency, likening the Palestinian struggle to the country’s own fight against apartheid. The ANC&#8217;s chief whip, Pemmy Majodina, emphasized the resolution&#8217;s call for a ceasefire and commitment to United Nations-facilitated peace negotiations.



President Ramaphosa has been vocally critical of Israel&#8217;s military actions in Gaza, urging the International Criminal Court to investigate potential war crimes.



This recent parliamentary vote, amidst the backdrop of escalating violence in Gaza and Israel&#8217;s strategic military campaign against Hamas, marks a pivotal moment in South Africa&#8217;s foreign policy, mirroring its historical commitment to human rights and international law. As the world watches, the actions of Ramaphosa&#8217;s administration in the coming days will be crucial in shaping the future of South Africa-Israel relations and, possibly, the broader geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.

Israeli attacks continue on the 47th day in Gaza

South Africa Votes to Suspend Diplomatic Ties with Israel Amid Gaza Conflict

The first 100 days of any presidency are often harshly
scrutinized as they set the tone for what citizens expect. South Africa’s Cyril
Ramaphosa is under the magnifying glass as all await his next tactical move.



<hr class="wp-block-separator"/>



At the end of May, South Africa’s sixth
democratically-elected president, Cyril Ramaphosa, took an oath of office at
Loftus Versfeld Stadium in Pretoria. In his speech, he touched on many issues
that resonate with South Africans, including corruption, poverty, equality and
youth unemployment. 



These burning matters prelude what is to be expected from
him in his first 100 days in office. 



Ramaphosa’s period at the helm of power (before the elections) has been typified by repeated calls for a ‘New Dawn’. It seems the man who made it to the 2019 Time magazine list of 100 Most Influential in the world has a laundry list of issues to attend to if he is to set the tone for the rest of his presidency. 



READ MORE | <a rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="IN PICTURES | Looking Back At The Vibe Of The South African Elections (opens in a new tab)" href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2019/06/03/in-pictures-looking-back-at-the-vibe-of-the-south-african-democracy/" target="_blank">IN PICTURES | Looking Back At The Vibe Of The South African Elections</a>



The challenge that has deeply affected how South Africans
and investors view the country is that of corruption.



“Let us forge a compact for an efficient, capable and
ethical state, a state that is free of corruption, for companies that generate
social value and propel human development… We must be a society that values
excellence, rewards effort and rejects mediocrity,” Ramaphosa said at his
inauguration on May 25.



&nbsp;In the first 100
days, analysts say he needs to demonstrate he is a proactive leader; one who
takes decisive action to address the plight of those who live in a society as
unequal as South Africa. The gaping chasm between the richest and poorest has
widened since the end of apartheid 25 years ago. This information is not lost
on citizens whose lived experiences and disenchantment were in evidence during
the elections.



A specialist in social economic development and political commentator, Kim Heller, is of the view that Ramaphosa has some way to go to address the resolutions of his party, the African National Congress (ANC).



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">&nbsp;“There are critical social maladies that need to be treated with the urgency they deserve… One of the key things people are looking for is a decisive man and decisive leadership,” she says.</blockquote>



Political analyst, Prince Mashele, ventures: “He is yet to
act on resolutions because he is navigating complex political infighting in the
ANC, which is why he can’t move boldly and faster…” 



Economic transformation has been seen to also imply
redistribution of the means of production, which currently has been reiterated
in the call for land redistribution without compensation. This is among the
duties citizens and investors will keep a close eye on as it is a contentious
matter.



Leading up to the elections, Ramaphosa said to apprehensive
farmers, “the land reform process is something we should never fear. It is
going to be done in terms of the constitution”. 



Heller says that, “the question of land is unresolved,
despite very solid ANC resolutions from branches, and despite extensive
consultation”. 



The president will to have to choose whether he wants to be investor-friendly or whether he wants the interests of his own political party to find expression in policy. 



“The investors have become the supreme branch of the ANC. So
Ramaphosa certainly, is spending a lot of time on their concerns rather than
ordinary people&#8230;,” Heller says.



READ MORE | <a rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="Poll Position: The South African 2019 Elections (opens in a new tab)" href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/big-shots/2019/05/07/poll-position-the-south-african-elections/" target="_blank">Poll Position: The South African 2019 Elections</a>



Mashele echoes: “He has been a market-friendly president. He
has railed against his comrades calling for the nationalization of the [South
African] Reserve Bank”.



Another matter influencing investment into the country is
red tape that inhibits instead of encouraging business. South Africa dropped
from 34 out of 181 countries on the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business ranking
in 2009 to 82 out of 192 countries last year, leaving the country trailing its
African peers, including Mauritius (20), Rwanda (29) and Kenya (61).



In his address to the nation, Ramaphosa continued with the
mantra thuma mina (which means ‘send me’) and committed to continue to build
South Africa. In his rebuilding, he will have to take a closer look at the factors
that infringe on those looking to conduct business while straddling the line in
ensuring that (natural) resources are not further depleted while failing to
trickle down to those who need it the most. 



Heller is of the view that the expectations created by the
president serve as a double-edged sword: “Some quarters have built him up to be
the Messiah we have all been waiting for. He may have embraced that but it’s
actually going to damage him. Because there is no individual who can save this
country without looking at doing serious things in terms of economic
restructuring… Until we address structural issues in this country, shifting the
economy to favor ordinary people, not markets, we actually aren’t very
benevolent.”



Also affecting business has been the view that South Africa is amongst the most corrupt on the continent and viewed as one of the murder capitals of the world. The Zondo Commission has illustrated the stark reality of the malfeasance the president will have to address to change these perceptions and in so doing, hold high-profile individuals accountable.



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&nbsp;In line with building
an equal society, the president made mention of the prevalence of violence
against women at his inauguration. 



“Let us end the dominion that men claim over women, the
denial of opportunity, the abuse and the violence, the neglect, and the
disregard of each person’s equal rights. Let us build a truly non-racial
society, one that belongs to all South Africans, and in which all South
Africans belong. Let us build a society that protects and values those who are
vulnerable and who for too long have been rendered marginal,” Ramaphosa said.



Leading up to the resolution of the president’s first 100
days in office, the public is watching with bated breath.&nbsp; 



“I pity him. He’s made big promises on housing and
unemployment. Those are not going to magically change overnight. The problem
with South Africa is that we love martyrs and here we have a president that we
have martyred and who is actually going to fall on that. To replace one man
with another, is not going to replace problematic policies, poor implementation
and poor conceptualization of economic solutions. So I think in the next 100
days, I don’t expect to see anything unless the fundamentals are changed,”
Heller says.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



No doubt, it is going to take a concerted effort from all
institutions, including those that have been revealed to be compromised. The
first 100 days will certainly determine the rest of the president’s term in
office.

gettyimages-1146169429-594×594

‘South Africans Love Martyrs’

It has been argued by many that the 2019 general election is going to be a watershed election. In other words, it is going to be the most competitive election since the advent of democracy in 1994. 



While this assumption may have been closer to reality before the resignation of Jacob Zuma as president of the Republic of South Africa in February 2018, I would not be surprised if the performance of the African National Congress (ANC) defied these expectations. 



For me, the irony is that it is Cyril Ramaphosa, one of the weakest leaders in the history of the ANC, who may pull the ruling party away from the electoral calamity Zuma’s ignominious presidency would have inflicted on the ANC, had it survived beyond 2018. 



A further irony lies in the fact that Ramaphosa is not only a lame-duck ANC leader who cannot govern without the consent of his opponents in the ruling party, but is also the head of a ‘new dawn’ project that has, to a large degree, become the ‘new yawn.’ 



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Contrary to expectations, the election of Ramaphosa as president of both party and country has not alleviated the image crisis of the ANC. In some ways, the gap between the ideals of the ANC and what the party has become is wider despite the (sometimes bellicose) calls and promises of unity and self-correction by many a party leader. 



At leadership level, the ANC remains divided and factionalized. Evidence that is being led in the different commissions of inquiry paints a picture of a former liberation movement whose members and leaders have become quite adept at things venal and corrupt. 



The ANC has become a metaphor for rent-seeking, state capture and the poor service delivery of the local state. 



In short, because of the state of the ruling party, the ANC should be trounced in these elections. Given the hollowness and shallowness of the alternatives, the ANC will suffer contractions in electoral support but will not lose power at national level. 



Put differently, notwithstanding the gap between the procedural and substantive aspects of our democracy, the levels of substantive uncertainty in our electoral politics will improve but will remain relatively low. 



In other words, despite the gap between what our constitution’s promises, on the one hand, and what our democracy actually delivers, on the other, the contractions the ANC will suffer in the May 8 elections will probably be felt more at provincial level than at national level. Why?



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">First, according to recent polls, Ramaphosa’s approval rating, which is at about 55%, is not only higher than that of the ruling party but is also higher than that of the leaders of the main opposition parties. </blockquote>



This means that, despite the dismal state of qualitative decline of the ruling party at a leadership, intellectual, moral and strategic level, and despite Ramaphosa’s own subjective weaknesses as a leader, his approval rating will pull the ANC up. 



What will save the ANC, therefore, is the fact that its internal crisis is a subset of the broader crisis in our politics. 



Therefore, in addition to the Ramaphosa factor, the ANC will be saved from significant shifts in electoral support by the generalized crisis in our politics as well as the credibility deficit that has become one of the defining features of the political class of our country. In this regard, the state of opposition politics is instructive. 



A cursory look at the state of the official opposition, the Democratic Alliance (DA), tells the story of a party that is at sixes and sevens. The sociology and political economy of race in South Africa remains an unshakable albatross around the necks of the DA and its first black leader, Mmusi Maimane. 



Many, if not most, black voters still regard the DA as a racist party of whiteness, white capital and white interests. Objectively, it may not be true that the DA is a party of white minority interests. 



What matters, though, in electoral politics are the subjective perceptions of voters. As long as black voters continue to see the DA as a white party, the inroads the party makes into the traditional support base of the ANC will not be enough to dislodge the ANC as the ruling party. 



In my view, the DA is not a white party. It is a majority black party of white minority interests. 



Despite the fact that, under the tutelage of its former leader, Helen Zille, it succeeded in increasing its black membership and support, I still maintain that racism is not a dynamic that is completely external to the party. 



READ MORE | <a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2019/02/10/the-claim-that-democracy-fares-better-in-the-west-than-in-africa-is-a-fallacy/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="The Claim That Democracy Fares Better in the West Than in Africa Is a Fallacy (opens in a new tab)">The Claim That Democracy Fares Better in the West Than in Africa Is a Fallacy</a>



Also, I still contend that its ambivalence towards policy measures such as Black Economic Empowerment, affirmative action, land reform and employment equity despite the fact that, rhetorically, it now accepts that race remains a key indicator and predictor of disadvantage in South Africa, is a function of its colonial and paternalistic mindset. 



In addition, the DA will continue to perform below the levels desired by its leaders as long as black voters continue to regard Maimane as a puppet of white interests. 



I don’t share the view that Maimane is a puppet but do believe that there are too many in the party who see themselves as ventriloquists because of the colonial and paternalistic mindset of their whiteness, which I allude to above. 



My expectation, therefore, is that the DA is not going to breach the 30% threshold of which it has been desirous for some time. In fact, it will probably improve on its 2014 performance but may not reach 25%. 



If this happens, Maimane will be removed as party leader before or at the next Federal Congress of the party because of his failure to preside effectively over the DA’s internal racial policy and ideological tensions. If the black caucus of the party remains strong, Maimane will be succeeded by a black leader. 



Otherwise, his successor will be a white man. On the other hand, if the turnout of ANC voters is critically low and a sizable number of those who turn up vote for the DA and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), this scenario may not eventuate. 



Will the EFF benefit from the DA’s divisions at a racial, ideological and policy level?



The tragedy of South African politics is that it still does not have a political culture of strong opposition and the alternation of power between political parties despite the plurality of choices available to voters. 



By so saying, I am not aligning myself with the narrow and conservative conceptions of democratic consolidation which liberal democratic theorists always try to impose on the intended beneficiaries or victims of western modernity outside Europe and America. 



All I am saying is that single party dominance has been part of South African politics since 1948. The National Party was the ruling party from 1948 until 1994, and the ANC has been in power since 1994. The ANC will be in power, probably with a reduced majority, after the May 8 general election. 



The EFF will probably do better at provincial than at national level. We must not rule out the possibility that the ANC may lose power in Gauteng. Its own internal research suggests that it will fall below 50% in this province if it does not mount a serious effort. 



In the scenario, the EFF will be part of a coalition government in Gauteng because no party is likely to win an outright majority. Whether the ANC will be part of such a coalition government, in this scenario, will depend on the size of its relative majority if it does win such a majority. 



The EFF will put up a strong challenge in the North West province where it has strong support, and ANC support is dwindling. 



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">Therefore, we cannot rule out the possibility that the EFF, on its own, or together with other parties, will dislodge the ANC in this province. </blockquote>



In the Limpopo Province, where, as is the case in the North West, the EFF is the official opposition, it will either dislodge or come very close to dislodging the ANC as the ruling party. 



At national level, the EFF has a problem. Its messaging resonate with many in the ANC support base. The problem is that the majority of voters do not believe the EFF is fit to govern. Therefore, I expect the EFF to improve on the 6% it garnered in 2014 and settle just below, or above, 10%.



Will this election deliver change? If it does, it will not do so significantly. Ramaphosa’s subjective weaknesses and limitations as a leader will show up much more strongly after the general election. His inability to make tough choices will become more apparent, with his disciples describing him as the consummate player of ‘the long game’. He will still not be able to govern without the consent of his opponents in the ANC.



-Aubrey Matshiqi is a Financial Mail rated political analyst for the second year in a row. He is also one of South Africa’s most in-demand speakers on the subject of the political state of the nation. 



-Opinions expressed by Forbes Africa contributors are their own Ticking the right boxes: Will the elections come down to the wire?

Ballot box with national flag on background – South Africa

Ticking The Right Boxes: Will The South African Elections Come Down To The Wire?

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa announced plans on Thursday to split struggling state power giant Eskom into three separate entities, as he sought to convince investors and voters that he will turn around a struggling economy before an election in May. 



Ramaphosa is balancing efforts to revive an economy burdened by government debt and mismanagement with the need to retain the support of elements in his ruling African National Congress (ANC) and powerful labour unions who oppose reforms that could cost jobs.



The ANC is expected to win May’s parliamentary election but analysts say Ramaphosa needs the victory to be resounding if he is to unite a party that has been deeply divided since the ousting of scandal-plagued Jacob Zuma a year ago.



“The task before us is formidable,” Ramaphosa said during a televised state of the nation address in parliament that was attended by hundreds of lawmakers and dignitaries.



“Above everything else, we must get our economy working again.”



Fixing the crisis at Eskom was the main talking point ahead of Ramaphosa’s highly-anticipated annual address as it will be key to him delivering on a promise to mend an economy that stagnated under Zuma.



Eskom supplies more than 90 percent of South Africa’s power and employs 48,000 people. But it is drowning in around 420 billion rand ($31 billion) of debt and is expecting to lose more than $1 billion a year for the next two years.



Many investors have called for Eskom to be partially privatized to make it more efficient, but significant sections of the ANC have said that is a red line that cannot be crossed.



Trying to please all sides, Ramaphosa said Eskom’s generation, transmission and distribution businesses would become separate state-owned entities, without touching on controversial subjects like job cuts or privatisation.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">‘DECISIVE ACTION’</h4>



He said the government would support Eskom’s balance sheet but that the scale of that support would be revealed only in a budget speech by the finance minister on Feb. 20.



“Eskom is in crisis and the risks it poses to South Africa are great,” Ramaphosa said, adding that he would call this year’s parliamentary vote on May 8.



“We need to take bold decisions and decisive action. The consequences may be painful, but they will be even more devastating if we delay.”



Ramaphosa also promised to boost tourist numbers, explore selling stakes in state firms deemed non-strategic and increase agricultural output through accelerated land reforms.



But it was his comments on Eskom that drew the greatest attention.



“It is clear that a fundamental restructuring of Eskom is on the cards. It may not happen in one step, but it is a very important starting point,” said energy expert Chris Yelland.



“Today’s comments were about managing the expectations of the financial community on the one hand, and the opposition of labour unions on the other.”



Successive governments have avoided addressing Eskom’s inefficient and monopolistic structure, fearing a backlash from socialist elements in the ANC and from much of the public given the likely job losses.



Ramaphosa could still delay unpopular decisions like cutting jobs until after the election in an effort to avoid a confrontation with unions.



Cosatu, the biggest union movement and an ally of the ANC, released a statement as Ramaphosa was delivering his speech saying it would fight job cuts at state firms “to the very end”. -Reuters



-Alexander Winning

ED_0150797

South Africa’s Ramaphosa Pledges To Fix Economy As Election Looms

Land-024

The Complex And Contentious Land Reform

<h3>Documenting Madiba</h3>
Sahm Venter, Author
<div id="attachment_36678" style="width: 209px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-36678" class="size-medium wp-image-36678" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0152-199x300.jpg" alt="" width="199" height="300" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0152-199x300.jpg 199w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0152-300x451.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0152-600x903.jpg 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0152-768x1156.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0152-681x1024.jpg 681w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0152.jpg 1361w" sizes="(max-width: 199px) 100vw, 199px" />Sahm Venter. Photography by Karen Mwendera</div>
<blockquote>“He saw people; he wasn’t one of those leaders who would see only famous people.”</blockquote>
South African author, Sahm Venter, spent most of her 25 years as a journalist covering the anti-apartheid struggle, before joining the Nelson Mandela Foundation as a senior researcher.
In June, with her colleague at the foundation, Vimla Naidoo, she released a book, I Remember Nelson Mandela, a collection of stories on the people who worked closely with Mandela.
“Everybody just loved him, and because he was such a decent person and because he saw people; he wasn’t one of those leaders who would see only famous people,” says Venter.
Mandela’s ability to pay attention to every single person in his presence was something Venter admired.
It was Christmas 1995, a year after South Africa gained independence with Mandela as head of state. Venter, along with five other journalists, spent Christmas day with him at the Transkei (in the southeastern region of South Africa).
“We had to meet him at like five in the morning and there were police guarding his house. He went and shook hands with every one of them and said ‘Merry Christmas’,” Venter recollects.
“When we walked through the villages for five hours, every single person and child who came out, he stopped, greeted and shook their hands. He asked for their name, asked how they are, what they are going to be when they are grow up, what class they are in at school.”
At the time, Venter quietly observed and remembers being blown away by Mandela’s humility.
A year later, at the launch of South Africa’s Constitution in Cape Town, Venter was among the few journalists who reported on the historical milestone.
“I was sitting next to this woman and I introduced myself from the SABC and she asked ‘are you Sahm Venter?’ and I said, ‘yes, why?’ And she said ‘well, the other day, Madiba called me up in front of these world leaders and introduced me to the whole crowd as you’. So he thought it was me because I had spent all this time with him,” Venter says, with a laugh.
“But that’s the kind of man he was, he valued everybody and everyone who worked with him felt that. And on top of it, he had a fantastic sense of humour,” she says.
<h3>Protecting Madiba</h3>
Conroy Herandien, Former bodyguard
<div id="attachment_36681" style="width: 209px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-36681" class="size-medium wp-image-36681" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0199-199x300.jpg" alt="" width="199" height="300" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0199-199x300.jpg 199w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0199-300x451.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0199-600x903.jpg 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0199-768x1156.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0199-681x1024.jpg 681w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0199.jpg 1361w" sizes="(max-width: 199px) 100vw, 199px" />Conroy Herandien. Photograph by Karen Mwendera.</div>
<blockquote>“Happy birthday Tata, come back please, urgently.”</blockquote>
Conroy Herandien was only 21 years old when he was tasked with protecting South Africa’s first black president, Nelson Mandela. The former policeman was recruited into the presidential unit as a bodyguard after Mandela became president in 1994.
Herandien says he got to travel 22 countries with Mandela and his staff during his presidential years.
But apart from meeting with delegates and other presidents, he got to witness some of Mandela’s most intimate moments on board the aircraft.
“When everything quietens down and you board the plane, that’s when the intimate part starts. You help him take off his shoes, make him comfortable, take out his hearing aids, switch them off, that’s where the personal came in,” Herandien says.
“He had this thing about newspapers. If you give him the newspapers in the morning, please don’t touch them! Don’t open page two or anything because when he saw that the newspaper was opened, he wouldn’t want to read it anymore. He was a disciplined man and like many elders, had his own mannerisms and was also very stubborn at times especially when it came to the security part of things,” shares Herandien, with a laugh.
At times, Mandela would make his own bed even though there was staff to do it. This was the discipline instilled in him from 27 hard years in prison.
Herandien says he learned this discipline from Madiba, and attests to applying it in his everyday life. “He helped us grow where we didn’t stand back for anybody and everyday was a learning curve,” he says.
Herandien can’t help but wish Mandela was still around. As South Africa celebrates what would have been Mandela’s 100th birthday on July 18, Herandien recalls one particular experience celebrating Mandela’s birthday on one of their trips.
Shortly after midnight, the president’s plane landed at the Air Force Base Waterkloof in Pretoria, South Africa’s capital. Herandien and a colleague were one of the first to wish Mandela a happy birthday.
“No, no, thank you very much, very good, very good!” Herandien imitates Madiba’s response in his recognizable voice.
“That was him. He made everybody feel special,” Herandien says.
If he had the opportunity to wish Mandela one more time, he says these would be his words: “Happy birthday Tata, come back please, urgently.”
<h3>Impressing Madiba</h3>
Tladi Ditshego, Former international affairs coordinator
<div id="attachment_36677" style="width: 310px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-36677" class="size-medium wp-image-36677" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0027-300x199.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="199" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0027-300x199.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0027-600x399.jpg 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0027-768x510.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0027-1024x681.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0027.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />Tladi Ditshego. Photograph by Karen Mwendera.</div>
<blockquote>“He gave me that ability to recognize people and feel good around people and to know them deeper.”</blockquote>
During apartheid, African National Congress (ANC) member Tladi Ditshego left South Africa to live in the United States (US) on exile. He studied at Georgetown University in Washington DC in 1990. At this stage, he was the treasurer of the ANC Youth League chapter based there. After Mandela left prison, one of his missions was to visit some of the ANC members living in exile. As a result, Mandela happened to visit Ditshego’s university too.
“When I met him at that time he was obviously such a revered leader, I was shivering,” says Ditshego.
Ditshego worked closely with him during his stay in the US.
“I advised him on certain things and participated in discussions before his interviews, I added value to some of his speeches and everything else and he says ‘come and work with me in Johannesburg’,” recalls Ditshego.
He consulted with his wife, processed his exile indemnity forms and did what anyone would have done if asked personally to work for Mandela.
1992 marked the beginning of his journey working with Mandela as his international affairs coordinator and they traveled to many countries together. One of his first assignments was to Senegal for a summit.
“That was my first international assignment with him and I didn’t know his modus operandi,” says Ditshego.
After meeting, greeting and networking alongside Mandela, Ditshego was called to meet with the president once the event ended.
“He said, ‘Tladi come over here’, and he sat down and said to me, ‘who was the lady we met dressed like this?’ And I said ‘I don’t know’,” Ditchego says.
“So he looked at me and said ‘ok, after that lady, there was another gentlemen’&#8230; And he would describe the way he was dressed. And I said, ‘but I don’t know the guy’, and he went on for the third and ‘I said I don’t know’ again.”
Ditshego was disappointed at not being able to identify any of the people Mandela asked him about. “He might have felt that I was very stupid, you know, and I couldn’t sleep that night,” he says.
The next day Mandela asked him the same type of questions after they met more people at an event. This time, Ditshego went prepared. He carried a notebook and wrote down every detail about each person Mandela interacted with.
Ditshego narrates the conversation he had with Mandela afterwards.
“Tladi, how was the day?”
‘Tata, I think it went on very well.’
“Remember we met a lady dressed like this…”
“Oh, ‘that’s Penelope from…’ ”
Ditshego had everything written down and had an answer for every person Mandela asked him about.
When they returned to South Africa, Mandela even told Ditshego’s boss, at the time Thabo Mbeki.
“Ey, Tladi is so smart, he knows everybody in the world and at that conference, he knew everybody,” Mandela said to Mbeki.
From then on, Ditshego’s confidence was restored. Not only did he learn to pay attention to detail whilst working with Mandela, but it is what he now applies in his day-to-day life.
“He gave me that ability to recognize people and feel good around people and to know them deeper, rather than to just say ‘hi, how are you?’” says Ditshego, who is now an entrepreneur and CEO at J&amp;J Group in Johannesburg.
<h3>Idolizing Madiba</h3>
Vimla Naidoo, Former staff
<div id="attachment_36679" style="width: 209px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-36679" class="size-medium wp-image-36679" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0174-199x300.jpg" alt="" width="199" height="300" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0174-199x300.jpg 199w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0174-300x451.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0174-600x903.jpg 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0174-768x1156.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0174-681x1024.jpg 681w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0174.jpg 1361w" sizes="(max-width: 199px) 100vw, 199px" />Vimla Naidoo. Photograph by Karen Mwendera.</div>
<blockquote>“I hope wherever Madiba is, he just feels the love, not just from his staff or family, but just South Africa and the world.”</blockquote>
It was in September 1995 that Vimla Naidoo first started working for the presidency. She was in the protocol team and her first task was to put together a reception that Mandela was hosting for Pope John Paul II. Minsters, the cabinet and several distinguished guests were invited to the prestigious reception.
It being Naidoo’s second day on the job, she was excited and nervous working behind the scenes. The event went smoothly and it was just about to end.
Little did she know she was about to meet two of the most respected men in the world.
“Our director at the protocol, said ‘come’ and I was like ‘where are we going?’ And he said ‘we are going to join this line of people greeting Madiba and the Pope’,” recollects Naidoo.
“I was so shocked but I was elated. I mean it was my second day on the job. I thought I was going to go through a couple of months before I ever got to see Madiba!
“I walked right past the Pope with my hand stretched out to greet Madiba, and he looked at me and he laughed and said, ‘aren’t you going to greet the Pope’? And I thought ‘oh my gosh, I’m going to be fired on my second day at work’. So I did a double take, went back, shook the Pope’s hand, I think, and he said something like ‘bless you, child’.”
A shy Naidoo walked back to Mandela, who then asked her, “Aren’t you supposed to be in school?’, trying the gauge his new staff member’s age.
“So he just kind of made me feel more comfortable and at ease. And I thought I royally screwed up. And so that always sticks with me,” says Naidoo, never able to forget that first encounter with him. After staying on in the presidency for a few years, it was normal meeting the iconic president most days.
“I think just to let him know how much we love him and how he will always be a part of our hearts…” Naidoo says, getting emotional. We pause the interview for a bit.
“It’s such an emotional experience and thinking about Madiba and talking about him I mean, especially during this time of the year…And thinking about other birthdays that we’ve shared, you know, and we’ve all been running around like worker bees trying to make sure that he has a great time,” she continues.
“I hope wherever Madiba is, he just feels the love, not just from his staff or family, but just South Africa and the world.”
<h3>Healing Madiba </h3>
Jay Naidoo, Former minister of reconstruction and development
<div id="attachment_36680" style="width: 209px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-36680" class="size-medium wp-image-36680" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0197-199x300.jpg" alt="" width="199" height="300" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0197-199x300.jpg 199w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0197-300x451.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0197-600x903.jpg 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0197-768x1156.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0197-681x1024.jpg 681w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DSC_0197.jpg 1361w" sizes="(max-width: 199px) 100vw, 199px" />Jay Naidoo. Photograph by Karen Mwendera.</div>
<blockquote>“His remarkable magic of connecting with children was in fact one of the greatest triumphs that he could teach us.”</blockquote>
At an event commemorating Nelson Mandela, Jay Naidoo, a political and social activist and founding general secretary of the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), shares one of the funniest moments involving Mandela and Naidoo’s then two-year-old son Kami.
In 1994, when South Africa had just gained independence, Naidoo was appointed minister of reconstruction and development in Mandela’s cabinet.
Mandela was addressing the people during the launch of a campaign on how the leadership and communities could work together.
Naidoo attended the launch with his wife Lucie Page and Kami.
“Madiba is making the main speech. He is opening, and Kami decided that when Madiba is making his speech, he is going to go there and stand in front of everybody and tug Madiba’s trousers’,” Naidoo narrates.
Lucie and Naidoo looked at each other wondering which parent would pick up Kami tugging the president’s pants, whilst he was speaking.
“So I said ‘ok I will volunteer’. The first time I go and I take him and I put him on my lap. But no, he is not content with that,” Naidoo says.
Oblivious to the important speech Mandela was delivering, the little boy returned to him. This time, Lucie fetched Kami.
But her efforts were unsuccessful.
Kami went after Mandela a third time.
But this time, Mandela responded.
“He takes him in and puts him on the podium and continues the speech. Kami didn’t say a word.” Naidoo laughs.
“So Madiba, bless his soul, he loved children. There was a child inside of him that he missed for those 27 years. That is his greatest loss; the laughter of children, the touch of children, the love and innocence and the love of children. So his remarkable magic of connecting with children was in fact one of the greatest triumphs that he could teach us. He was a great teacher,” says Naidoo, fondly remembering Madiba.
Naidoo wished that Mandela’s love for children would transcend through society. However, the post-apartheid transition wasn’t easy especially for the politicians who had the task of rebuilding the country.
“Madiba once had a conversation with me when he talked about the reconstruction and development program of the soul and I said to him, ‘Madiba, I know we need to heal but they aren’t measuring us on healing, they are measuring us on how many houses, jobs and schools we are building’.”
Only now does Naidoo realize that “it was a stupid mistake, because we didn’t do the work of healing, first within ourselves, because we all carry this wound”.
This was something he believes Mandela was trying to teach them all.
Naidoo ends by saying: “If only we could just learn that and live with love and compassion and generosity, the triumph of what Madiba represented over fear and prejudice and racism….”

Mandela Through Their Eyes

It proved a day short on time in court and big on political posturing and speeches. The former president of South Africa Jacob Zuma’s appearance lasted a mere 10 minutes, on April 6, and the trial postponed until June 8 – yet he managed to make political capital out of his day in court in Durban.
On a bright sunny day in the coastal city of Durban in the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) Province of South Africa, the former head of state stood trial in his own court. Almost 10 years ago, 10 days after this day, 18 charges on 783 counts of fraud, corruption, money laundering and racketeering were dropped against Jacob Zuma by former National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) boss Mokotedi Mpshe.
This decision was said to have been based on the recordings of the so-called ‘spy tapes’, which were presented to Mpshe by Zuma&#8217;s legal team. And almost a decade later, Zuma stands trial in the same court for the same charges which were reinstated by now NPA boss Shaun Abrahams.
The court was packed to full capacity with only 25 journalist allowed inside. Media came from all over the country, the continent and the world. Night vigils and pickets were held outside the night before the court case and on the day the case took place, led by different organizations supporting the former president. These organizations included Transform RSA, Black First Land First led by Andile Mngxitama, student groups from various KZN universities and members of the African National Congress (ANC) ruling party who claimed not to be operating under the party’s name.
The National Executive Committee (NEC) of the ANC made an announcement a week before the trial that members of the party who liked to support Msholozi, as Zuma is affectionately called, could do so in their own personal capacity and not wear any party regalia. However, ANC members who attended actually did the opposite and when asked if they were defying their own party, countered “you cannot have an ANC without Jacob Zuma”.
Thousands of supporters in front of the Durban High Court chanted struggle songs and praised Zuma.
Zuma addressed the crowds after spending close to 15 minutes inside the court room.
“I keep asking them what have I done for them to keep trying to bring me down but they have no answers but one day they will,” he said.
Among the top-ranking ANC officials in KZN was the province’s MEC for Economic Development and Tourism Sihle Zikalala who vowed to aid in defending the former president.
What is clear is that the ANC in KZN is still divided, with its members committing to prove Zuma’s innocence and unseating current president Ramaphosa before the 2019 elections. On the other hand, some others are calling for his prosecution by the court of law.
This case may take years to be concluded and political wars in the province may not augur well for the ANC.

G20 Nations Hold Hamburg Summit

Prosecution And Praise For Jacob Zuma

Africa’s most robust and developed economy is on the cusp of an economic revival after the long-awaited change of guard at the top.
South Africa’s economy has struggled against downgrades by the ratings agencies and a flight of foreign investors in several difficult years that have left the country with miniscule growth.
The big obstacle to change was President Jacob Zuma whose unpopularity and poor management of the economy, amid clouds of corruption allegations, threatened to bury the once all powerful African National Congress (ANC). In the good times, a decade ago, when the economy was growing at a healthy 5%, the leaders of the ANC boasted they would rule until Jesus came back. The penny slowly dropped for the party faithful that if economic times got steadily harder, feeding a rising opposition, the party may struggle to rule until the end of the next elections in 2019.
Pressure for change came from even the most die-hard ANC members for Zuma to resign. He refused; the party bigwigs gave him a deadline and at the eleventh hour, just before midnight on February 14, he did so live on TV. In many ways, he had little choice; his party comrades were plotting to throw him out through a humiliating vote of no confidence in Parliament, in Cape Town, also live on TV. He would also have lost his pension, security and benefits in the process.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2018/02/15/zumas-time-mean-south-africa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Zuma&#8217;s time is up &#8211; but does it mean for South Africa</a>
For a former head of intelligence, Zuma appeared strangely out of touch with what people were thinking.
“What have I done?” was his reaction to the decision by the ANC to recall him. A cursory flick through the business pages of the newspapers would have told him: Job losses and unemployment running at more than one in four; falling business confidence and tales of millions of taxpayers’ money slushing into private pockets rather than public projects.
Into the breach stepped Cyril Ramaphosa, the former deputy president who was sworn in as the country’s new leader, in Cape Town on February 15, with a promise to clean up and pep up the economy. He is seen as the business friendly president and a pragmatic negotiator with vast experience from the picket line to the boardroom.
“Issues to do with corruption, issues of how we can straighten out our state-owned enterprises and how we deal with ‘state capture’ are issues that are on our radar screen,” says Ramaphosa as he was elected as president, unopposed, in Parliament.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/08/16/lack-accountability-marikana-says-zumas-government/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: What the lack of accountability for Marikana says about Zuma&#8217;s government</a>
Many of the business leaders I have spoken to, from Davos to Johannesburg, agree that if Ramaphosa turns his words into action they will invest with confidence.
“You are going to see millions of dollars flooding into this country in the next six months,” says Gary Booysen of Rand Swiss in Johannesburg.
The markets appeared to agree and surged with the rand. The currency reached highs not seen since May 2015, the last halcyon days of the economy. Three days of madness, in December 2015, put paid to that when Zuma sacked respected finance minister, Nhanlha Nene, replaced him with rookie Des Van Rooyen the next day and him, under duress, with former finance minister Pravin Gordhan the day after. The president sacked Gordhan in March 2017 and replaced him with another rookie Malusi Gigaba – the rand and confidence plunged, as did the ratings.
Ramaphosa – a multi-millionaire who has made his money from black empowerment and shrewd business decisions – wants a legacy of being the man who helped his country out of the mire. He has deep roots in the liberation movement and anyone who knows him will tell you he would want to be remembered as the best leader of his country since Nelson Mandela.
Anyone who has their money and pension tied up in South Africa will hope that he does so.

Zuma’s gone. Let’s go!

South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) is mired in a serious leadership crisis, and President Jacob Zuma faces an ignominious end to his political career. The 74-year-old has refused to take responsibility amid corruption and conspiracy charges. Having been <a href="https://theconversation.com/cyril-ramaphosa-prepares-to-confront-south-africas-bleak-future-89410" target="_blank" rel="noopener">replaced as party president by Cyril Ramaphosa</a> in December 2017, he faced the choice between resigning or taking his chances with a no-confidence vote in parliament. After days of mouting pressure, he <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-43066443" target="_blank" rel="noopener">finally walked</a>.
The whole episode carries more than an echo of recent events in neighbouring Zimbabwe, where a bloodless military coup removed President Robert Mugabe but left his ruling ZANU-PF party in power, while the coup’s leaders were rewarded with cabinet posts.
The global public seems glued to every move in South Africa’s political drama. But is the attention actually warranted? Is the country really at one of its most momentous crossroads yet? That will only be clear with hindsight.
Perhaps Zuma’s removal will help transform South Africa’s political culture and regenerate the ANC, which is still stuck in its old anti-apartheid/Mandela mode. If it revives the ruling party and ends the era of old men clinging to power and acting with impunity, Zuma’s departure will be one of the great Rubicons in South Africa’s post-apartheid history.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/21/lessons-south-africas-jacob-zuma-robert-mugabes-misfortunes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Lessons for South Africa&#8217;s Jacob Zuma in Robert Mugabe&#8217;s misfortunes</a>
<h2>Falling short</h2>
Just before the 1994 elections, ANC activist <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/ns-interview-albie-sachs-lawyer-and-anti-apartheid-campaigner" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Albie Sachs</a> declared that the ANC had at best two terms in power to bring electricity and running water to the majority of South Africans and to address the inequality in educational, health and infrastructural services. Any longer, he said, and young South Africans would start to challenge its authority.
To give the party its due, what has been achieved is remarkable. It is easy to forget just how momentous the country’s problems were when the ANC took power in 1994. Given it started with one of the world’s largest gaps between the wealthy (at that time almost exclusively “white”) and the poor (almost exclusively of colour), post-apartheid South Africa has been tremendously successful in creating a stable and solid <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/178079/how-big-south-africas-black-middle-class-is-and-why-the-anc-are-concerned/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">black middle class</a>.
The party had to try and refashion the country on all levels – political, economic, social, cultural – and in some ways, it has made great strides. While it has its many critics, the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of the late 1990s helped the nation start to move on from one of the most intense protracted experiences of racial discrimination in recent history.
But some of the deep problems apartheid wrought are anything but solved: millions <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2017/08/22/more-than-half-of-south-africans-living-in-poverty-stats-sa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">still live in poverty</a>, and levels of violent crime (notably sexual violence) are <a href="https://africacheck.org/factsheets/south-africas-crime-statistics-201617/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">strikingly high</a>. All the while, many among the ANC’s elite (not least Zuma himself) have conspicuously accrued tremendous wealth, and their extravagance has become a significant problem for the party’s legitimacy. But instead of cleaning house or changing its ways, the ANC has over and over again chosen to fall back on its victory against apartheid and the memory of its most famous member, Nelson Mandela.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2016/12/01/zuma-thief-must-voetsek/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: &#8216;Zuma The Thief Must Voetsek&#8217;</a>
<h2>Behind the figleaf</h2>
In 2013, a month before Mandela passed away, the South African High Commission in London hosted the exhibition “We Love Mandela”, which included a <a href="https://www.enca.com/life/mandela-portrayed-jesus-last-supper" target="_blank" rel="noopener">painting</a> by South African artist Simon Dean entitled “The Last Supper”. It portrays Mandela as Jesus, surrounded by an astonishing cadre of “disciples” – from Desmond Tutu, Mohandas Gandhi, Martin Luther King, and the Ethiopian Emperor Haile Selassie.
This sort of Mandela-worship has been the party’s figleaf, and a useful device for silencing opposition, criticism, and calls for change. For far too long, it kept the party safe enough from electoral humiliation that Zuma remained secure in his office. But underneath it all, the political crisis that now confronts both the ANC and South Africa writ large has been brewing for years, and Zuma’s demise is long overdue.
To judge by the coverage outside South Africa, with the global public glued to every turn in this political drama, one might think Zuma’s demise had come from nowhere, and that it is guaranteed to change the country for good. But in reality, nothing new has come to light in some time. The latest investigation into his connections with corrupt interests began with <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2013-05-07-the-beginners-guide-to-the-guptas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">exposés</a> by the South African Mail &amp; Guardian newspaper in 2013. Most of the assorted corruption charges against Zuma predate his presidency, as does the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/10/khwezi-woman-accused-jacob-zuma-south-african-president-aids-activist-fezekile-ntsukela-kuzwayo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">controversial rape case against him</a> in 2005-6.
Zuma’s presumptive successor, Cyril Ramaphosa, <a href="https://theconversation.com/cyril-ramaphosa-prepares-to-confront-south-africas-bleak-future-89410" target="_blank" rel="noopener">is not exactly the embodiment of radical change</a>. But Ramaphosa will have the chance to finally seize the impetus for a true political transformation – to find a way of tackling poverty, violence and discrimination while reforming the ANC from top to bottom.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91873/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />Only if that happens will the end of Zuma really turn out to be the moment of transformation much of the world thinks it is guaranteed to be. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/heike-schmidt-444690" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Heike Schmidt</a>, Associate Professor in Modern African History, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-reading-902">University of Reading</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

Zuma’s time is up – but what does it mean for South Africa?

A plethora of people are gathered inside the Nasrec Expo Centre in Johannesburg, all draped in regalia of the 106-year-old African National Congress (ANC), South Africa’s ruling party.
The crowd of more than 5,000 moves like a multi-headed beast, chanting South Africa’s struggle songs. The head of this beast can be found in a song that keeps creeping up in many parts of this crowd.
“Unity maqabane, ixesha lisondele,” goes the song, which loosely translates to “unity comrades, the time has come.”
This is moments before the African National Congress, the oldest liberation movement on the continent, makes one of the biggest decisions in more than a century of struggle and campaigning in Africa. It is about to elect who is going to lead it out of its most difficult time in democratic South Africa.
In a few moments, the ANC will choose who will replace President Jacob Zuma, a man who has ruffled feathers from the boardrooms to the streets.
Even before he took office, Zuma faced 783 counts of corruption. Around $20 million of taxpayers’ money was used to upgrade his private home in Nkandla, even though he is paying back some of it. His relationship with the Gupta family has cast a shadow over his presidency. The economy has undoubtedly taken a huge dip under his leadership, with unemployment rising and investments falling.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/21/lessons-south-africas-jacob-zuma-robert-mugabes-misfortunes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Lessons for South Africa&#8217;s Jacob Zuma in Robert Mugabe&#8217;s misfortunes</a>
At Nasrec, as the mood of the people swirls in different currents, dark uncertainty is visible on their faces. Factionalism is at its worse within the ANC, with the party split between two candidates.
The first is business-minded ANC Deputy President, Cyril Ramaphosa, who many believe should be next in line, claiming it is party tradition. The unions, however, say he is too capitalist.
The other is Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, a veteran parliamentarian and former chairperson of the African Union Commission. She is the first female ANC member gunning for the party’s top position. Many however say she is too close to President Zuma, her former husband.
Months of campaigning, factionalism, infighting and party slates have all boiled down to this moment. After a period of uncertainty and songs blaring from every corner, EleXions Agency, the facilitators of the voting process, take to the stage to put the masses here out of their misery.
Ramaphosa emerges as the new ANC president by a whisker. A mere 179 votes separates him from Dlamini-Zuma, after almost 5,000 delegates cast their votes.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2016/12/01/zuma-thief-must-voetsek/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: &#8216;Zuma The Thief Must Voetsek&#8217;</a>
The top six positions of the ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) are also closely contested, with the outcome split between supporters of Ramaphosa and Dlamini-Zuma. Is this the unity outcome that’s often crept up in songs here, or will this cause further division within the self-confessed corruption-riddled party?
“It’s an interesting outcome but it’s an outcome that’s organizational. I think that’s what the ANC needs, where we pull everyone together under one roof and make it a point that people work together as a collective, cohere and move forward,” says recently elected ANC Eastern Cape Chairman, Oscar Mabuyane.
Fikile Mbalula, the newly-elected NEC member, and staunch supporter of Dlamini-Zuma, preaches unity after the battle.
“The conference is over, we have one president and not two. Cyril Ramaphosa is my president and we are going to work nicely together,” says Mbalula, who is also South Africa’s Minister of Police.
Some, however, aren’t taking kindly to the outcome. Bathabile Dlamini, the President of the ANC Women’s League, lambastes the new leadership. The Women’s League had thrown its weight behind Dlamini-Zuma in the hope that she’d become the first woman to lead the ANC in its history.
“This is an attack on women’s struggles. We have been dealt a blow and want to call on all women to stand together,” says Dlamini.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/12/19/anc-new-leader-south-africa-remains-political-precipice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: The ANC has a new leader but South Africa remains on a political precipice</a>
Jesse Duarte is the only woman in the top six – coincidentally contesting for her position against another woman.
Business tycoon and former Gauteng Premier, Tokyo Sexwale, who is also concerned by the lack of women in the top six, gave words of warning on tackling corruption within the ANC.
“When you become president of the country [one day], make sure you have the long arm of the law reach out to criminals. Start with criminals who are trying to hide under Cyril’s umbrella, because that’s how they corrupt the situation. Before you steal from Eskom, SAA and so on, you’ve got to corrupt the ANC. So deal with them decisively first,” says Sexwale, who was once named alongside Ramaphosa and Mathews Phosa in a plot aimed at toppling then president, Thabo Mbeki, in 2001.
A thorny issue for the new ANC leadership, which includes the 80 NEC members, are the growing calls to recall outgoing ANC president, Zuma, from the presidency of South Africa.
In his closing speech at the conference, Ramaphosa, emphasizes the need for a public office that wouldn’t serve vested interests, but build a truly developmental state.
“Our people will judge this conference not only by what we have done here over these past five days, but perhaps more importantly, they will judge it by what we do next. The people of South Africa want action.”
Will Ramaphosa be able to deliver this action? Time will tell.

‘The People Want Action’

Rumours that President Jacob Zuma has instructed the South African National Defence Force to draw up plans for implementing a <a href="https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1756940/sa-presidency-rejects-reports-of-state-of-emergency-regulations-draft/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">state of emergency</a> may or may not be true. Nonetheless they are evidence of South Africa’s febrile political atmosphere.
But any assumption that <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/anc-conference/anc54-breaking-ramaphosa-elected-anc-president-12453127" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the election</a> of <a href="https://www.forbes.com/profile/cyril-ramaphosa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cyril Ramaphosa</a> as the new leader of the African National Congress (ANC), after winning the race against Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, will place South Africa on an even keel are misplaced. Indeed, the drama may only be beginning.
It’s useful to look back to 2007 when President Thabo Mbeki unwisely ran for a <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/i-asked-mbeki-to-stand-for-a-third-term-to-stop-zuma-kasrils-20171108" target="_blank" rel="noopener">third term as ANC leader</a>. His unpopularity among large segments of the party provided the platform for his <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/Politics/Zuma-sweeps-to-resounding-victory-20071218" target="_blank" rel="noopener">defeat by Zuma</a> at Polokwane. Within a few months the National Executive Committee of the ANC latched onto an <a href="http://www.saflii.org/za/cases/ZAKZHC/2008/71.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">excuse</a> to ask Mbeki to <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/thabo-mbeki-resigns-south-africa%E2%80%99s-second-democratic-president" target="_blank" rel="noopener">stand down as president of the country</a> before the end of his term of office. Being committed to the traditions of party loyalty he complied, resigning as president some eight months before the Constitution required him to do so.
The question this raises is whether South Africa should now expect a repeat performance following the election of a new leader of the ANC. Will this lead to a party instruction to Zuma to stand down as president of the country? And if it does, will he do what Mbeki did and meekly resign?
There’s a big difference between the two scenarios: Mbeki had no reason to fear the consequences of leaving office. Zuma, on the other hand, has numerous reasons to cling to power. This is what makes him, and the immediate future, dangerous for South Africa, and suggests the country faces instability.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/21/lessons-south-africas-jacob-zuma-robert-mugabes-misfortunes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Lessons for South Africa&#8217;s Jacob Zuma in Robert Mugabe&#8217;s misfortunes</a>
<h2>Why Zuma won’t go</h2>
It is not out of the question that Zuma may say to himself, and to South Africa, that he is not going anywhere. He is losing <a href="https://theconversation.com/dramatic-night-in-south-africa-leaves-president-hanging-on-by-a-thread-57180" target="_blank" rel="noopener">court case</a> after <a href="https://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21732538-judges-keep-finding-against-south-africas-embattled-president-jacob-zuma-loses-two" target="_blank" rel="noopener">court case</a>, and judicial decisions are increasingly narrowing his legal capacity to block official and independent investigations into the extent of <a href="http://ewn.co.za/Topic/State-Capture" target="_blank" rel="noopener">state capture</a> by business interests close to him.
With every passing day, the prospects of his finding himself in the dock, <a href="https://theconversation.com/president-zuma-loses-bid-to-dodge-783-charges-but-will-he-have-the-last-laugh-85703" target="_blank" rel="noopener">facing 783 charges</a>, including of corruption and racketeering, also increase.
Zuma will have every constitutional right to defy an ANC instruction to stand down as state president until his term expires following the next <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/newsmaker-2019-elections-results-will-be-credible-20171015-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">general election in 2019</a>, and the new parliament’s election of a new president. In terms of the <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.za/legislation/bills/2002/b16.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">South African Constitution</a>, his term of office will be brought to an early end only if parliament passes a vote of no confidence in his presidency, or votes that, for one reason or another, he is unfit for office.
But today’s ANC is so divided that it cannot be assumed that a majority of ANC MPs would <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-happening-inside-the-anc-not-parliament-is-key-to-why-zuma-prevails-82399" target="_blank" rel="noopener">back a motion of no confidence</a>, even following the election of Ramaphosa as the party’s new leader.
In other words, there is a very real prospect that South Africa will see itself ruled for at least another 18 months or so by what is termed <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2007-06-27-anc-debates-two-centres-of-power" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“two centres of power”</a>, with the authority and the legitimacy of the party (formally backing Ramaphosa) vying against that of the state (headed by Zuma).
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2016/12/01/zuma-thief-must-voetsek/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: &#8216;Zuma The Thief Must Go&#8217;</a>
<h2>Throwing caution to the wind</h2>
As if that is not a sufficient condition for political instability, we may expect that Zuma will continue to use his executive power to erect defences against his future prosecution. He will reckon to leave office only with guarantees of immunity. Until he gets them, Zuma will defy all blandishments to go. And if he does not get what he wants, he may throw caution to the wind and go for broke.
Hence, perhaps, the possibility that he is prepared to invoke a state of emergency.
The grounds for Zuma imposing a state of emergency would be specious, summoned up to defend his interests and those backing him. They would be likely to infer <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-pressure-mounts-on-south-africas-jacob-zuma-he-blames-an-old-enemy-western-intelligence-agencies-69599" target="_blank" rel="noopener">foreign interference</a> in affairs of state, alongside suggestions that <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/zuma-again-denounces-the-monopoly-of-white-economic-power-11988619" target="_blank" rel="noopener">white monopoly capital</a>, whites as a whole as well as nefarious others were conspiring to prevent much needed <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2017-12-15-know-your-candidate-dlamini-zuma-beats-the-ret-drum/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">radical economic transformation</a>. Present constitutional arrangements would be declared <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-south-africans-should-be-worried-by-anc-talk-of-a-colour-revolution-87019" target="_blank" rel="noopener">counter-revolutionary</a> and those defending them doing so only to protect their material interests.
After a matter of time, such justifications would probably be declared unconstitutional by the judiciary. It is then that there would be a confrontation between raw power and the Constitution. If such a situation should arise, we cannot be sure which would be the winner.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2017/12/13/anger-corporate-slippery-slope/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Anger At The Corporate Slippery Slope</a>
<h2>South Africa’s army</h2>
It is remarkable how little the searchlight that has focused on state capture has rested on the Defence Force. Much attention has been given to how the executive has effectively co-opted the <a href="https://theconversation.com/leaked-emails-ramaphosas-hypocrisy-on-spying-by-the-south-african-state-83605" target="_blank" rel="noopener">intelligence</a> and <a href="http://www.ngopulse.org/article/2016/09/29/political-interference-weakening-rule-law-sa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prosecutorial service</a>, as well has how the top ranks of the police have been selected for political rather than <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/15/world/africa/south-africa-police-commissioner-under-investigation-is-suspended.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">operational reasons</a>.
It seems to have been assumed that South Africa’s military is simply sitting in the background, observing political events from afar. But is it? Where would its loyalties lie in the event of a major constitutional crisis?
The danger of the present situation is that South Africa might be about to find out.
Were the military to throw its weight behind Zuma the country would be in no-man’s land. Of course, there would be a massive popular reaction, with the further danger that the president himself would summon his popular cohorts to <a href="https://theconversation.com/anc-military-veterans-and-the-threat-to-south-africas-democracy-76118" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“defend the revolution”</a>.
And South Africans should not assume that Zuma would be politically isolated. Those who backed Dlamini-Zuma did so to defend their present positions and capacity to use office for personal gain. If they were to rise up, the army would then be elevated to the status of defender of civil order.
What is certain is that in such a wholly uncertain situation the economy would spiral downwards quickly. Capital would take flight at a faster rate than ever before, <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=10658" target="_blank" rel="noopener">employment</a> would collapse even further, <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=10334" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poverty</a> would become even further entrenched.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/13/southern-slug-fest/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: The Southern Slug Fest</a>
<h2>Reasons to be hopeful</h2>
Is all this too extreme a scenario? Hopefully yes. There are numerous good reasons why such a fate will be averted.
Zuma’s control over the ANC is waning, as is his control over various state institutions, notably the National Prosecuting Authority. And the country has a checks and balances in place: there is a vigorous civil society, the judiciary has proved the Constitution’s main defence and trade unions and business remain influential.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89248/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />Even so, it remains the case that what transpires now that the ANC’s national conference is over will determine the fate and future of our democracy. South Africa is approaching rough waters, and a Jacob Zuma facing an inglorious and humiliating end to his presidency will be a Jacob Zuma at his most dangerous. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/roger-southall-296862" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Roger Southall</a>, Professor of Sociology, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-the-witwatersrand-894" target="_blank" rel="noopener">University of the Witwatersrand</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

Tag: ANC

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