India’s Covid catastrophe and the lessons for governments around the world on preparing for the next wave.



I arrived in Delhi with my wife on 15th April 2021 as the Covid-19 pandemic had started to rage through our country. Our only motivation was to be with our respective mothers who live alone in Delhi. When we landed in Delhi, things were relatively normal, and on the surface, it was almost business as usual. The first telltale sign of the impending chaos was when we did not get our test reports from the PCR tests that were taken on arrival in Delhi. The word ‘normal’ is relative, as for most other countries in the world, 250,000 cases a day would have been catastrophic. In a matter of two weeks, and as I write this piece, the cases crossed 400,000 on 30th April 2021 with no end in sight. Our hindsight pundits say that the peak will signal approximately 500,000 cases a day or over 3.5 million cases a week. The scale of this problem is gigantic and as news has spread across the globe, people are shocked and the affected are incensed and outraged by the lack of preparedness.



There was no reason for a country like India to not be prepared. Just a few months back, we had proudly positioned ourselves as the vaccine capital of the world. How did we go from being the hunter to the hunted in three months? How did we ignore the words of the Director-General of the World Health Organization who categorically stated that the next wave was going to be deadly?



I have watched the news over the last few weeks and sadly seen that the finger-pointing does not stop even during times of calamity. With all the human suffering that we have witnessed, there is no one who has the moral courage and integrity to accept that he or she has made an error in judgement. Our judiciary at the highest level had to point out to the Election Commission of India that they failed the people of the country by continuing with elections in three regions. The only people that have stayed the course are the frontline workers who have remained resolute in their resolve to help save human lives. The poor as always face the brunt of any calamity and this has been no different in this case. However, for once, the rich have not been spared either. People with millions in their bank accounts have fallen prey to this pandemic as in the end all they needed was an extract from freely available air and yet it was in short supply. No amount of money could help people source oxygen or find a hospital bed. The current virus is far more contagious and spreading faster through the air. The catastrophe has seen no caste, creed or economic disparity; everyone has suffered. The agony and despair of the people of our country have been beyond any human suffering that I have witnessed during my life. And yet, we will get past even this; such is the tenacity of human beings.



The citizens of India have suffered as a consequence of serious and inexcusable omissions and negligence on the part of the national and state leadership; every one of them. However, the people of the country must take responsibility for their reckless conduct leading to this disaster that will set our country back from its path to recovery. Not adhering to social distancing and taking the vaccination drive seriously are two major errors of judgement by the people. When disaster struck, everyone wanted to be vaccinated at the same time causing a system overload. I would like to take this opportunity to highlight some of the immediate actions that African and other governments must take on a war footing.



The biggest failure is stakeholder communications. The people of India were given to believe that the pandemic was over in February 2021. Politicians thumped their chests as they did their victory laps taking credit for beating the virus. This gave a false sense of security and people put their guards down and started behaving like it was business as usual. Clear communication from the government must continue indicating in no uncertain terms that the crisis is far from over.



Until a majority of the population has been vaccinated, all major events (of whatsoever nature including weddings, sports, religious or political campaigning) must be cancelled or held virtually. For everything else including office and other entertainment, dining and retail activities, all social distancing protocols must be followed meticulously. We have learned from 2020 that 100% lockdowns may not be necessary and to find the right balance, where needed, consider localized restrictions in infection zones. Lockdowns should be used as a measure of last resort as they are likely to do more damage than good.



Linked to vaccinations is the importance of testing. Governments must set up more labs for testing at reasonable costs and continue testing its constituents for the infection and also determine any variations or mutations to the virus until the vaccination drive is conclusively completed.



All governments must revert back to March 2020 and begin ramping up their healthcare infrastructure. This is the time to build additional ICU capacity in hospitals and infrastructure at several temporary purpose-built facilities that can take on overflows from hospitals. Some facilities should be built beforehand and others must be stored in semi-knocked-down condition in warehouses should the need arise. All hospitals must have adequate ambulance services available to move people as necessary.



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">“The pharmaceutical sector must be given incentives in Africa so that capacity to produce medicines is enhanced exponentially. Collaboration must be set up with international companies to enhance both patented and generic medicines so that developing countries are not treated with lower priority when it comes to healthcare; all human lives are equally valuable.”</blockquote>



Ramp up oxygen production capacity and ensure that the storage of 50% excess capacity than normal national utilization targets are kept in reserve. This has proven to be the lifeline for Covid patients. In the same vein, all other oxygen infrastructure should be ramped up, including concentrators and other devices that can be used at home by people. The experience in India has been that for this particular virus, home care has been far more effective for a majority of the cases. For that, freely available support systems for home use are invaluable.



The only cure to the pandemic is an aggressive vaccination policy. There is no cure other than getting vaccinated and governments must procure vaccinations and make them available at a reasonable cost (if not free) to the entire nation. Countries that are behind on the vaccination drive must ramp it up and carry out a campaign to educate people on the urgent need to get vaccinated. There is clear evidence of lower incidences in countries where the vaccination rates are high. For Africa, I believe that the DFIs must immediately look at setting up infrastructure to become self-reliant on vaccines for the future. This is not an option; if anything is to be learned, no time must be wasted on this. It’s not rocket science and immediate action must be taken to develop the pharma industry expeditiously.



The pharmaceutical sector must be given incentives in Africa so that capacity to produce medicines is enhanced exponentially. Collaboration must be set up with international companies to enhance both patented and generic medicines so that developing countries are not treated with lower priority when it comes to healthcare; all human lives are equally valuable. Capacity must also be built for other hygiene products including masks, sanitizers, PPEs and other essential items.



An area that needs attention is the training of healthcare workers. The pandemic is contagious and care-givers need to be trained to stay out of harm’s way. The only way this can be done is to improve the quality of training of all frontline workers.



My next comment is on the role of the media. Being a media owner myself, I understand the need for accurate and actionable news but there rests an enormous responsibility in finding a balance between highlighting negligence and fueling chaos. Remember one thing always, that no government or administration ever wants to harm its people; this must remain an intrinsic belief at all times. As a case study, in India, over the last two weeks, there has been a frenzy in the Indian media regarding lapses in the preparation and the state of affairs at hospitals. While on the one hand, it served the very important purpose of holding public servants accountable for the absolute mismanagement of this crisis, the media created unintended fear in the public. This fear resulted in people going to hospitals the minute they tested positive thus clogging the system; there was a run on oxygen cylinders and concentrators as people began hoarding them and finally, there was a run on pharmacies that ran out of essential medicines because even people who did not need medicines, as a precaution, began storing them. What then emerged was a black market that has preyed on the sick and despondent.



It is my request to all media businesses around the world to begin devoting more than a cursory mention to the awareness campaigns around the pandemic. More inventory needs to be devoted towards educating people on the actions to be taken when the next wave arrives, the importance of vaccination and most importantly, on responsible social behavior. The best cure still is wearing masks, social distancing and sanitizing one’s hands regularly. If and when the next wave hits, the media must spend more time on educating people on taking precautions and symptoms management so that everyone does not run to hospital. If you can educate even a few people, you would have done your duty to humanity. Remember this is far from over and the lessons from India must be taken seriously by all governments around the world. Prepare for the next wave or history will repeat itself.



– The writer is the Founder and Publisher of FORBES AFRICA

Rakesh Wahi

From The Eye Of The Storm

TOPLINE The coronavirus pandemic may undo the way we tie the knot for years to come, giving rise to micro-weddings, “minimonies” and postponements. All event organizers should monitor state and local guidelines and guests should stay 6 feet apart. 



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<ul><li>Consult state and local guidelines on attendee limits for indoor and outdoor social gatherings.</li><li>Organizers should “continually assess” the situation, including the total number of guests, the level of virus transmission in the local area and the layout of the venue, when deciding whether the event should be postponed, canceled, or the guest list significantly reduced, according to the <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/large-events/mass-gatherings-ready-for-covid-19.html" target="_blank">Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</a>. </li><li>The bigger the gathering, the higher the risk. “For a wedding or a funeral, unfortunately, those are going to be high-risk events right now and probably until we have a safe and effective vaccine, or at least until we get the transmission of this virus under much better control,&#8221; says Crystal Watson, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.</li><li>Stay at least 6 feet away from other guests, as social distancing is key in any group setting. </li><li>Place hand sanitizer on every table. </li></ul>



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<ul><li>Postpone the big celebration in favor of a “minimony”—a mini ceremony with an officiant and one or two witnesses present.&nbsp;</li><li>Consider a micro-wedding of no more than 20 guests. These budget-friendly options can still include the special touches typically associated with bigger affairs.</li><li>“A micro-wedding offers couples the opportunity to have all the best of a traditional wedding without the stress and cost associated with hosting a big fat wedding. You can still have a beautiful venue, flowers, cake, the bridal gown and snazzy suit, gorgeous decor and a tasty dinner if those are the elements that say ‘wedding’ to you — but just with a smaller group of people,” says Kelly Story, wedding coordinator and owner of Storybrook Events, which has offered micro-weddings at a farm in Jonesborough, Tennessee since 2018.</li><li>Interview vendors in advance about their safety protocols and add necessary safety requirements to your vendor contract.&nbsp;</li><li>Don’t skimp on a photographer. Those who are unable to attend will be thrilled to see your day captured in amazing photographs.&nbsp;</li><li>Accent floral arrangement centerpieces with mini hand sanitizers by adding custom labels for them from a company such as StickerGiant or Vistaprint.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li><li>Skip the buffet, use disposable dinnerware and bottled or pre-poured beverages. Buffets tend to create long lines and crowds, which increases potential for virus transmission.</li></ul>



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Elopements never go out of style. “Many couples are opting for A Little White Chapel’s famous drive-thru wedding tunnel, because they needn’t even leave their car to get hitched,” says Charolette Richards, the self-described “Wedding Queen of the West” and owner of the iconic Las Vegas drive-thru tunnel of love. “Many arrive on horseback or motorcycles, incorporating the couple’s favorite pastimes. It’s also outdoors which allows for more space between guests.” Richards has officiated thousands of weddings over the past 50 years.&nbsp;



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When choosing a venue, make sure there is enough space for guests to socially distance, says Adette Contreras, cofounder of Tinsel Experiential Design. If it does not have the layout to accommodate six feet of separation between people, find another space (or trim the guest list further). 



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Contreras highlights another advantage of hosting an intimate event: “Smaller gatherings can be more intimate and provide opportunities for meaningful conversations with family and friends.”



“Don’t let the pandemic steal your joy!” says Story. “You never know, your Covid-era wedding may be more perfect and magical than you ever dreamed. Keeping your wedding small may turn out to be exactly what you wanted after all.”



&#8211;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/tanyaklich/">Tanya Klich</a>, Forbes Staff, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/lifestyle">Lifestyle</a>

gettyimages-1221093022-594×594

How To Gather With Friends And Family At Weddings And Events

Topline:&nbsp;This week, President Trump&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/03/23/trump-weighs-economic-and-public-health-toll-appears-eager-to-lift-social-distancing-measures/#5ea0ce663862">floated the idea</a>&nbsp;of easing up on social distancing measures on the theory that the damage caused by shutting down the economy might be greater than the cost of letting the virus run its course—some models suggest, however, that reopening the economy too soon could be exponentially more expensive.



<ul><li>If the United States were to abandon aggressive social distancing measures after 14 days, more than 125 million people will contract the virus, some 7 million could be hospitalized, and 1.9 million people will die (accounting for other factors like infectiousness and hospitalization rates), according to a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html?action=click&amp;module=Top%20Stories&amp;pgtype=Homepage" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">model</a>&nbsp;built by the&nbsp;New York Times.&nbsp;</li><li>If social distancing goes on for two months, the model predicts that 14 million will contract the virus, with fewer than 100,000 deaths.</li><li>There’s no debate that the broader economy is going to suffer even at the current rate of spread. Morgan Stanley is predicting a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/morgan-stanley-sees-u-s-economy-plunging-30-in-second-quarter" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">30% drop</a>&nbsp;in GDP next quarter. U.S. GDP is currently&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2019-third-estimate-corporate-profits" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">$21.43 trillion</a>. A drop of 30% would mean a value-loss of more than $6.4 trillion (for context, the economic relief bill signed by President Trump this afternoon is worth about $2 trillion).&nbsp;</li><li>If the outbreak worsens due to relaxed social distancing measures, it’s not unreasonable to anticipate even greater economic losses.</li><li>Economists can calculate the average value of one life saved using a model called the&nbsp;<a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-should-the-government-spend-to-save-a-life/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">value of a statistical life</a>. It’s a fuzzy metric used by some&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-value-of-life/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">government agencies</a>&nbsp;that is based on how much a person is willing to pay to reduce the risk of death. Right now, that figure hovers around $10 million.</li><li>“If we could prevent a million deaths, at the usual way we value [them] of around $10 million each, that’s $10 trillion, which is half of GDP,” says James Hammitt, a professor of economics in Harvard’s health policy department.&nbsp;</li><li>University of Chicago economists have arrived at a&nbsp;<a href="https://bfi.uchicago.edu/insight/blog/key-economic-facts-about-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">similar conclusion</a>: they’ve found that under “moderate” social distancing measures, 1.7 million lives and at least $7.9 trillion could be saved.&nbsp;</li></ul>



Big number: The average cost of a hospital stay for a mild case of pneumonia is $9,763, according to <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/potential-costs-of-coronavirus-treatment-for-people-with-employer-coverage/" target="_blank">Peterson-KFF analysis</a> (pneumonia is commonly associated with COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus). The median total cost balloons to $88,114 for the most severe cases that require more than four days of ventilator support. Seven million hospitalizations for patients with mild cases would cost more than $68 billion. If 17% of those patients required ventilator support, as was the case in one Chinese <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext" target="_blank">study</a>, the cost of hospitalizations alone could add up to a staggering $161 billion, and that’s before the cost of other health complications related to the virus is accounted for. 



Crucial quote:&nbsp;“Anything that slows the rate of the virus is the best thing you can do for the economy, even if by conventional measures it’s bad for the economy,” University of Chicago economist Austan Goolsbee&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-economy-recession.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">told the&nbsp;New York Times</a>.&nbsp;



Key background: In some ways, all of this discourse is more than a century old. A <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560" target="_blank">new paper</a> released yesterday found that during the1918 flu pandemic—the closest historical analogue for the current coronavirus outbreak—cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively to slow the spread of the virus through social distancing and isolation of cases suffered no greater economic damage than those that didn’t. “On the contrary,” the authors write, “cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively experience a relative increase in real economic activity after the pandemic.” Seattle, Oakland, Omaha, and Los Angeles, for instance, implemented stronger containment measures than Pittsburgh, Nashville, and Philadelphia and all saw a much larger surge in job growth after the crisis was over in 1920. 



 Tangent: Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/24/covid-19-texas-official-suggests-elderly-willing-die-economy/2905990001/" target="_blank">suggested</a> earlier this week that grandparents might be willing to die to preserve the economy for their grandchildren. “No one reached out to me and said, ‘as a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?’” he said. “And if that’s the exchange, I’m all in.” His and Trump’s comments <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/2020/03/24/trumps-focus-on-restarting-economy-sparks-backlash-with-viral-notdying4wallstreet-campaign/#46ae984d77ec">sparked a backlash</a> among progressives on social media on Tuesday, when the hashtag #NotDying4WallStreet trended on Twitter as users voiced their fears of the pandemic, and of the government’s response to it. “I’ll let Wall Street flat line before my grandma does,” <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://twitter.com/ohnoitsreal1/status/1242454020037337089?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.embedly.com%2Fwidgets%2Fmedia.html%3Ftype%3Dtext%252Fhtml%26key%3D3ce26dc7e3454db5820ba084d28b4935%26schema%3Dtwitter%26url%3Dhttps%253A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fohnoitsreal1%2Fstatus%2F1242454020037337089%26image%3Dhttps%253A%2F%2Fi.embed.ly%2F1%2Fimage%253Furl%253Dhttps%25253A%25252F%25252Fpbs.twimg.com%25252Ftweet_video_thumb%25252FET4VV6zUUAESOB-.jpg%2526key%253D3ce26dc7e3454db5820ba084d28b4935" target="_blank">wrote</a> one Twitter user.  



&#8211; <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahhansen/">Sarah Hansen</a>, Forbes Staff

Tag: social distancing

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