Justin Lin’s&nbsp;F9&nbsp;finally opened in North America this weekend with a $70 million debut. Yes, that’s lower than the $71 million launch of&nbsp;Fast &amp; Furious&nbsp;and every&nbsp;Fast &amp; Furious&nbsp;movie since then, including&nbsp;Fast Five&nbsp;($86 million in 2011),&nbsp;Fast &amp; Furious 6&nbsp;(a $117 million Fri-Mon launch in 2013),&nbsp;Furious 7&nbsp;($147 million in 2015) and&nbsp;Fate of the Furious&nbsp;($99 million in 2017). Considering that&nbsp;Fate of the Furious&nbsp;took an understandable drop from&nbsp;Furious 7&nbsp;(no nationwide mourning for Paul Walker, no generational coronation for the franchise, no super-cool notion of Jason Statham as the prime baddie, etc.), it would also make sense that&nbsp;F9&nbsp;would open below&nbsp;F8.



There were no real added value elements this time out, all due respect to John Cena’s decency and charisma and the #justice4Han folks. News that there would be 11&nbsp;Fast &amp; Furious&nbsp;movies instead of ten made this Vin Diesel vs. John Cena flick less anticipated. The reviews were mixed-positive as was (comparatively speaking) audience buzz. It earned a B+ from Cinemascore, compared to a B+ for&nbsp;The Fast and the Furious&nbsp;back in 2001 (when it was an unknown quantity) and A or A- grades for every sequel since.&nbsp;F9&nbsp;likely wasn’t looking at another $97 million Fri-Sun/$117 million Fri-Mon debut weekend had it opened in a non-Covid world in Memorial Day weekend 2020.



That’s not to say that&nbsp;F9&nbsp;would have opened below $70 million in normal times, although&nbsp;Spectre&nbsp;opened with $70 million in 2015 and legged out to $200 million domestic/$881 million worldwide. In conventional circumstances,&nbsp;F9&nbsp;might have nabbed a $80 million Fri-Sun/$92 million Fri-Mon Memorial Day weekend debut. Considering the Covid curve, strong legs for&nbsp;A Quiet Place part II&nbsp;and the new normal of nine big-deal streaming platforms (Peacock, HBO Max, Paramount+ and Disney+ all didn’t exist two years ago) all offering your favorite movies for the monthly price of a single movie ticket, I’d argue that a $70 million Fri-Sun domestic launch for&nbsp;F9&nbsp;is close to “business as usual.”



It’s the biggest Fri-Sun debut weekend since&nbsp;Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker&nbsp;($179 million) in December of 2019.&nbsp;F9’s&nbsp;$30 million opening day was the biggest single-day gross since the first week of&nbsp;Episode IX’s domestic run.&nbsp;F9&nbsp;had a 2.3x weekend multiplier earned 10.2% of its opening via Thursday previews.&nbsp;Furious 9&nbsp;($147 million from a $67.4 million Friday and $15.6 million in Thursday previews) had a 2.18x weekend multiplier and earned 10.6% of its weekend via previews.&nbsp;Fate of the Furious&nbsp;($98.8 million/$46.5 million/$10.4 million) had a 2.12x multiplier and 10.5% via previews. It’s, by default, the leggiest Fri-Sun&nbsp;Fast&nbsp;sequel opener since&nbsp;Fast Five&nbsp;($86.2 million/$34.4 million/$3.8 million) in 2011.



The Fast Saga&nbsp;sequels have been pretty consistent.&nbsp;Fast &amp; Furious&nbsp;($155 million from a $71 million debut),&nbsp;Fast &amp; Furious 6&nbsp;($238 million from a $117 million Fri-Mon debut) and&nbsp;Fate of the Furious&nbsp;($226 million/$99 million) were arguably frontloaded.&nbsp;2 Fast 2 Furious&nbsp;($127 million/$50 million),&nbsp;Fast Five&nbsp;($210 million/$86 million) and&nbsp;Furious 7&nbsp;($353 million/$147 million) had over/under 2.5x multipliers.&nbsp;Hobbs &amp; Shaw&nbsp;($175 million/$60 million) benefited from being the last biggie of summer 2019 and legged out to 2.91x, while the glorified spin-off&nbsp;Tokyo Drift&nbsp;($62.5 million/$24 million) had a 2.6x multiplier. Presume a final domestic gross between $152 million and $170 million, with a possible upswing to $175-$180 million.



F9&nbsp;is not among the best-loved sequels but may have a pretty open field.&nbsp;Black Widow&nbsp;opens in two weeks, but after that it’s a question of whether&nbsp;Space Jam: A New Legacy&nbsp;(July 16) and&nbsp;Snake Eyes&nbsp;(July 23) break out. If not,&nbsp;F9’s got a month before&nbsp;Jungle Cruise&nbsp;(July 30) and&nbsp;The Suicide Squad&nbsp;(August 6). Since it opened above $50 million, it gets a 31-day window. That&nbsp;A Quiet Place part II&nbsp;is legging out like a champ despite a 45-day window, and that&nbsp;The Croods: A New Age&nbsp;earned $33 million of its $58 million cume after PVOD availability (on day 21), means it may not be a huge factor.



So, yes, at a glance, Universal’s choice to move&nbsp;F9&nbsp;to late June essentially worked in terms of kicking off what counts as the tentpole-centric portion of summer 2021. It was trying to do this summer what&nbsp;Tenet&nbsp;couldn’t do last summer, with the important caveat being that North American theaters were actually doing their part this time. Theaters nationwide (including New York and California this time) are open and the next wave of biggies (Black Widow, Space Jam 2, Jungle Cruise, Suicide Squad, Free Guy, etc.) are still on tap for cinemas alongside the various horror movies (The Forever Purge, Escape Room: Tournament of Champions, Old, Don’t Breathe 2&nbsp;and&nbsp;Candyman) already doing their part.



F9 had already earned $216 million in China (on par with Hobbs &amp; Shaw’s $201 million cume but down from Fate of the Furious’ $393 million cume) and $297 million heading into the weekend. Thanks to the North American debut and a combined $38 million “overseas debut” in Mexico, Brazil and the U.K., its new global cume is $405 million worldwide, becoming just the third Hollywood release to pass that milestone (after Bad Boys For Life in January 2020and Godzilla Vs. Kong this past March) in 2020 and 2021. It should swiftly zoom past Japan’s Demon Slayer: The Movie ($500 million) as both this year and last year’s biggest-grossing movie. Your move, Black Widow…



By Scott Mendelson, Forbes Staff

May Day Holiday Movies

Box Office: ‘F9’ Tops $400M Global With $70M US Debut

I’m pretty comfortable predicting that this summer’s theatrical movie season will be the weirdest summer movie season since last summer’s movie season. No, theaters won’t be closed worldwide while the few open indie multiplexes and drive-ins try to subsist on nostalgic re-releases and arthouse horror flicks. However, the theatrical offerings are a set of mostly B-level franchise entries amid a few A-level tentpoles. Even with the emphasis on franchises and IP, that makes this summer feel like a distinctly early 1990’s season.



Back in, say, 1995, there was&nbsp;Batman Forever, Pocahontas, Apollo 13&nbsp;and then everything else fighting it out amid a more merciful theatrical environment. Or, more recently,&nbsp;Avengers, Dark Knight Rises&nbsp;and&nbsp;Amazing Spider-Man&nbsp;vs. everything else in summer 2012.



There are quite a would-be summer 2020 biggies (Tenet, Wonder Woman 1984, Mulan, Soul,&nbsp;etc.) that have already been released. Meanwhile, a number of would-be summer 2020 flicks (Top Gun: Maverick, Minions: The Rise of Gru, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, etc.) have been further delayed. There are yet more would-be summer 2021 biggies (The Batman, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Jurassic World: Dominion,&nbsp;etc.) are set for release in late 2021 sometime in 2022. And let’s not forget films like&nbsp;Cinderella&nbsp;and&nbsp;The Tomorrow War&nbsp;which were sold off to streaming platforms.



Point being, the summer release slate is a hodgepodge of “was supposed to be in 2020” and “didn’t have to vacate 2021” titles, most of them smaller in scale and not aiming for blow-out status. The hope is for achieving normalcy, not notching milestones.



So, without further ado, thus continues this summer movie preview. There’s only a handful here that I might expect to outgross&nbsp;Godzilla Vs. Kong&nbsp;($425 million with Japan on the way) and even fewer that might hope to just match what&nbsp;Hi, Mom&nbsp;($825 million) or&nbsp;Detective Chinatown 3&nbsp;($700 million) earned in China alone earlier this year. Without further ado, the three “surefire” blockbusters and the four biggest “might break out” question marks.



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F9: The Fast Saga&nbsp;(Universal)



Universal is positioning the ninth&nbsp;Fast &amp; Furious&nbsp;movie as the “welcome back, blockbusters” event. Opening May 21 in China and much of the world and then on June 25 in North America, the Justin Lin-directed flick pits Vin Diesel’s Dom Toretto against John Cena as his evil big brother. We already know that we’ll get car chases involving magnets, a trip to space and the return of Sung Kang&#8217;s Han Lue after his apparent fiery demise at the hands of Jason Statham’s (now-reformed) Deckard Shaw.&nbsp;F9&nbsp;will allegedly/possibly set up a two-part “Dominic Toretto and the Deathly Hallows”-type finale. Prior to the pandemic,&nbsp;F9&nbsp;was pegged to be 2020’s biggest global grosser. It’s now likely to be 2020’s biggest Hollywood-specific global grosser save for maybe&nbsp;Spider-Man: No Way Home&nbsp;(December 17).



Prior to all of this,&nbsp;F9&nbsp;was potentially going to be the first movie to top $1 billion worldwide without passing $200 million domestic. Now we’ll see if it can out-gross&nbsp;Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales&nbsp;($177 million domestic and $794 million worldwide in 2017) as the biggest-grossing Hollywood film to earn under $200 million domestic. Absence may indeed make the heart grow fonder, as it’s been four years between straight-up Dominic Toretto-specific sequels (starts singing “See You Again”). That’s especially if the movie is closer in quality to&nbsp;Fast Five&nbsp;than&nbsp;Fate of the Furious. I would be shocked if&nbsp;F9&nbsp;wasn’t the biggest movie of the summer, partially thanks to potentially huge business in China and halfway decent business in North America. The only question is “How big?”



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Black Widow&nbsp;(Walt Disney)



While I’d argue that&nbsp;Black Widow&nbsp;would have been a bigger deal had it opened in summer 2017 (between&nbsp;Civil War&nbsp;and&nbsp;Infinity War&nbsp;which is when it takes place) or before Natasha took a long walk off a short cliff in&nbsp;Endgame, it’s still a solo MCU superhero movie centered on one of the flagship Avengers. Scarlett Johansson is passing the metaphorical torch to Florence Pugh in this&nbsp;Bourne/Red Sparrow/Atomic Blonde-ish espionage actioner. Kate Shortland’s MCU prequel will arrive with the MCU machine back in full swing via Disney+ television shows and&nbsp;Black Widow&nbsp;looking even more like yesterday’s MCU business. The film will open in theaters and on Disney+ “Premier Access” on July 9. All of these factors will be why it’ll only make “much of the money” instead of “all the money.”



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Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings&nbsp;(Walt Disney)



This is the second Marvel/Disney flick, but to be fair much of the competition (Universal’s&nbsp;Jurassic World 3,&nbsp;Paramount’s&nbsp;Top Gun 2, etc.) fled to safer waters. The Simu Liu/Awkwafina/Tony Leung/Michelle Yeoh “first Asian MCU superhero” movie could be our first unmitigated Labor Day blockbuster. There’s little reason not to expect the Daniel Destin Cretton-directed flick to break out on the level of (at least, give or take Covid variables)&nbsp;Doctor Strange&nbsp;($677 million in 2016) even if China reacts with a comparative shrug. It’s a demographically-specific event movie along with being Marvel playing in thus-far uncharted waters (the martial arts movie), and it’ll have three weeks before&nbsp;Venom: Let There Be Carnage. A summer unlike any other is hoping to end with the most conventional thing in the world: an MCU blockbuster.



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The burning questions…



Yes, if there were more “biggies” opening this summer, had the likes of&nbsp;Jurassic World: Dominion, Top Gun: Maverick&nbsp;and&nbsp;The Matrix 4&nbsp;not been pushed back, this might have been a closer competition. As it is, it’s really a three-way race between the MCU actioners (huge in North America, healthy in China, with strong fan-specific loyalty and goodwill) and the&nbsp;Fast Saga&nbsp;sequel (healthy in North America, huge in China, with strong fan-specific loyalty and goodwill). But what else is there? Well, aside from a handful of high-profile horror flicks (Spiral, Candyman, A Quiet Place part II, etc.) and some “just a movie” offerings like&nbsp;Free Guy&nbsp;and&nbsp;In the Heights, that’s mostly it. However, there are four other potential “biggies” opening in June, July and August which absolutely could break out, relatively speaking.



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Space Jam: A New Legacy&nbsp;(Warner Bros.)



Will LeBron James’&nbsp;Space Jam&nbsp;sequel play to generational nostalgia or be another unrequested sequel?



Opening July 16, this Malcom D. Lee-directed&nbsp;Space Jam&nbsp;sequelhas mostly been discussed in terms of fabricated controversies about Pepe Le Pew getting “canceled,” and whether making Lola Bunny (now voiced by Zendaya) a more well-rounded character plays into the “social justice warrior” crowd. Pepe’s barely in&nbsp;Looney Toons: Back in Action, and that 2003 romp includes Speedy Gonzalez and Porky Pig mourning their declining popularity due to changing times. The big question is whether the film will be another “this sequel exists because the studio and/or certain filmmakers wanted it” or whether this 25-years-later follow-up will play as an all-ages theatrical-worthy romp while capitalizing on decades of multi-generational nostalgia (and the original film’s place as a comparative touchtone for Black moviegoers). Presumably responsible (under-$100 million?) budgeting aside, this could go either way.



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Hotel Transylvania: Transformania&nbsp;(Sony)



Will the fourth “Drac Pac” movie thrive without Adam Sandler?



Each of the three&nbsp;Hotel Transylvania&nbsp;movies have out-grossed their predecessor worldwide, which each one has been leggier than the last in North America. With the biggest/best animated films (The Mitchells Vs. the Machines, Luca,&nbsp;etc.) mostly going to streaming, Sony Animation’s fourth “Drac Pack” flick is by default summer’s biggest animated film. The initial trilogy has earned $379 million, $469 million and $527 million in 2012, 2015 and 2018 on a combined budget of $230 million. However, Adam Sandler will not be reprising this time out, with Brian Hull (made famous via a YouTube video of him singing “Let It Go” as various animated characters) taking over. While kids won’t care about the actor swap when it opens on July 23, the demos that view&nbsp;Hotel Transylvania&nbsp;as a Sandler-and-friends animated franchise might (even with everyone else reprising).



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Jungle Cruise&nbsp;(Walt Disney)



Can this be Disney’s first true “new to cinemas” live-action franchise in nearly 17 years?



Delayed from last July, this action-comedy is loosely based on the popular theme park ride, one which ironically has undergone an allegedly “less cultural offensive” reworking over the last year. Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt are headlining this Jaume Collet-Serra-directed romp which wants to remind you of Stephen Sommers’&nbsp;The Mummy. Hopes were high last year that it might become Disney’s first new-to-cinema live-action franchise (outside of the MCU) since&nbsp;Pirates of the Caribbean&nbsp;in 2003 and&nbsp;National Treasure&nbsp;in 2004. Johnson is a force with a viable IP, Blunt is an added value draw, and the film looks like quite a bit of fun. If Disney’s live-action departments want to be more than just Marvel,&nbsp;Star Wars&nbsp;and live-action remakes/revamps of their animated hits, well, this one (opening July 30) better break out.



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The Suicide Squad&nbsp;(Warner Bros.)



Can a&nbsp;Suicide Squad&nbsp;sequel still soar without Will Smith and the Joker?



This has all the ingredients of a “too late” sequel to a film that was a big hit ($745 million sans China) without being terribly well-liked. David Ayer’s (heavily compromised) ensemble supervillain flick boasted the first live-action appearance of Harley Quinn, a Will Smith star turn and cameos by Ben Affleck’s Batman and Jared Leto’s Joker. Margot Robbie is back as Harley, while James Gunn is in the director’s chair. That’s ironic since&nbsp;Guardians of the Galaxy&nbsp;is what Warner Bros. was aiming for even if Ayer was initially crafting something closer to&nbsp;The Fast &amp; the Furious. A crowdpleasing trailer, a marquee director and a rejuvenated DC Films may help compensate for the “just curious the first time” variable. Besides, in normal times, I’d have pegged&nbsp;Godzilla Vs. Kong&nbsp;as a whiff, so WB gets my benefit of the doubt.



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Epilogue



That’s a wrap for “part two.” Now is it possible that I’m wrong on these flicks? Sure,&nbsp;F9&nbsp;could underperform while&nbsp;Free Guy&nbsp;soars to infinity and beyond.&nbsp;Suicide Squad 2&nbsp;could be a classic “Tomb Raider Trap” while&nbsp;In the Heights&nbsp;pulls&nbsp;Greatest Showman-level grosses worldwide. Hell,&nbsp;Cruella&nbsp;could play closer to&nbsp;Cinderella&nbsp;($520 million in 2015)than&nbsp;Dumbo&nbsp;($350 million). But the vast majority of 2021 summer movie releases will be content with $100-$150 million worldwide (the horror movies) or thrilled with $300 million worldwide (the likes of&nbsp;Peter Rabbit: The Runaway, Free Guy&nbsp;or&nbsp;Cinderella). Theaters shouldn’t expect that many blow-out hits or record opening weekends. They can still hope that the consistent output offers a steady stream of halfway decent business from May 7 to Labor Day weekend. It’s a summer about survival, not superlative success.



By Scott Mendelson, Forbes Staff

Wuhan Reopens Cinemas After Months In Lockdown

Box Office: The Biggest Blockbusters And Riskiest Releases Of Summer 2021

Zimbabwe-born, Canadian-resident Natasha Heschélle, who was once homeless on the streets of Paris, has now produced a new web series that merges many genres.



From being a migrant worker in Paris to sleeping at a shelter run by a Catholic priest, Natasha Heschélle’s career has taken her through some of life’s most uncertain experiences.



Now a film producer and actress in North America, her inaugural series, Zahara – The Return, premiered in April on Amazon Prime Videos, reaching viewers in the United States far from her country of birth, Zimbabwe.



Heschélle says her life story has been that of determination and sacrifice.



Like most of her countrymen, hers too started with separation from her family. Her mother, Marisa Moyo, left the country at the height of President Robert Mugabe’s misrule in 2004, and found a new home in Canada.



“I was seven when my mother left. Her move helped send me to a good school and take care of the rest of the family. I lived a privileged life compared to my peers. I could afford going shopping in South Africa and Botswana; only the privileged few could do this.”



Most Zimbabweans at this stage were living in penury but the worst was to come in 2008.



Heschélle often skipped school to attend dance classes, leaving her family unimpressed.



“When my grandmother died, I suffered severe depression and this worsened as my dreams of becoming a dancer were not materializing. I decided to move to Canada to live with my mom. During the application period, I temporarily moved to Paris in 2013 with the plan to work and pay for my dancing classes.”



That plan didn’t work.



“I ended up homeless and on the streets as I ran out of money with no job, until a priest took me into a shelter where I lived for three months. For a week, I slept at Gare du Nord street in central Paris and with no basic French language skills, things could not be any better. I had to wait until my Canadian documents came out in 2014 when my mom paid for my air ticket,” she recollects.



Once in the Land of Maple Syrup, her dreams started taking shape.



“I got a job, went to acting school, the Seneca College of Applied Arts and Technology, along the way landing my first acting role as a supporting actress in a film produced by a Tanzanian. Unfortunately, that movie was not aired due to the producer refusing to pay casting staff.”



Heschélle drew inspiration from her mother.



“My role model is my mother; she is the strongest person I have ever met. She pushes me not to give up. Through her support, I produced my own television series.”



Her television drama, Zahara – The Return, is a three-part romance web series, which showcases rebellion and racial tensions.



The 23-year-old even has advice for budding filmmakers.



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">“Being a producer takes courage, it takes risks. As an actress in Canada, I am a visible minority and I have an accent which has worked against me.</blockquote>



&#8220;I have lost so many roles due to this reality, so I have learned to speak with the North American accent, it’s not easy. I don’t want to lose my accent because that is my identity, but if I have to work in North America, I have to make that transition.”



Says the University of Free State’s Film Studies Professor and film critic, Nyasha Mboti, about the series: “It is a merging of genres playing on racial politics and the horror genre. For black people, the horror genre is increasingly holding an emerging fascination due to the fact that their lives blur the line between horror and biopic, tragedy and comedy, and highlight that there is a thin line between horror and everyday life.



“Black directors, in order to have cross-over appeal, are starting more and more to fictionalize and stylise the racialised horror of everyday life, turning it into a genre that audiences can enjoy.”



– By Trust Matsilele

Tasha aheadshot 2

A Story Of Separation And Return

They’re all closed.



Movie Theaters. Bars. Nightclubs. Arenas. Cafes. In New York, Broadway and museums are shuttered. In San Francisco it’s even more dire. Across the country and the world, cities are shutting down, leaving humans from Seattle to Shanghai without traditional ways of finding distraction.



The mandate for social distancing that has proven essential at slowing the spread of the coronavirus will cut about $12 billion of entertainment revenue from the U.S. if the shutdown lasts until July,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/03/16/cdc-all-americans-should-avoid-gathering-in-groups-of-more-than-10-people/#255b6cb5283d">as President Trump signaled</a>. Billions more are not being spent on creating new content as film and television production is frozen.&nbsp;



Things could get a lot worse.



“This is definitely unprecedented and turning everyone&#8217;s lives completely upside down,” says Ryan Borba, managing editor at concert tracker Pollstar.



The concert and live event industry brought in $34 billion last year,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.ibisworld.com/united-states/market-research-reports/concert-event-promotion-industry/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">according to market research firm IBISWorld</a>. Simple math suggests that a three-month shutdown at this time of year could cost that industry $7 billion of lost revenue. Any longer and it starts to cut into the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackomalleygreenburg/2020/03/06/as-coronavirus-cancels-sxsw-coachella-could-be-next-as-music-industry-braces-for-a-cruel-summer/#24e8eb076886">popular summer concert season</a>, which for LiveNation, the world’s biggest concert promoter, is when 70% of its attendance begins passing through the turnstiles. That’s bad news for the producers, songwriters, technicians and the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.ibisworld.com/united-states/market-research-reports/concert-event-promotion-industry/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">269,025 concert employees</a>, including janitors, security personnel and ticket collectors. That’s not to mention the world’s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackomalleygreenburg/2019/12/06/the-worlds-top-earning-musicians-of-2019/">top-earning musicians</a>, all of whom make the majority of their money performing.&nbsp;



“We’re beginning to see it affect the entire music ecosystem,” one prominent artist manager who <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackomalleygreenburg/2020/03/06/as-coronavirus-cancels-sxsw-coachella-could-be-next-as-music-industry-braces-for-a-cruel-summer/#20fa6f7d6886">told Forbes</a> on the condition of anonymity. “We’re getting calls from our agents about promoters canceling individual shows. Songwriters and producers have canceled flights into L.A. for sessions, so it’s starting to trickle down to the songwriting and production communities as well.”



On New York’s Broadway, where all 41 theaters are closed, the hit could be about $600 million, based on the amount they pulled in between mid March and July of 2019. During the 2016-2017 season, those theaters also supported more than 87,000 jobs and contributed $12.63 billion to New York City’s economy, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.broadwayleague.com/research/research-reports/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Broadway League</a>.



The effect on movie theaters is far more drastic. A complete shutdown across the U.S. will mean a $4 billion hit on the box office if they remain closed until July. On March 18, less than a month into the crisis, the national association of theater owner&nbsp;<a href="https://apnews.com/734c2aad0321b93811a13273c112d21f" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">requested a bailout</a>&nbsp;from the government.



“From the point of view of studios they are hemorrhaging money on the movie side,” says Mike Bloxham the senior vice president of global media and entertainment at research firm Magid.&nbsp;“There is a lot of money disappearing in China while 70,000 theaters are still closed.”



Once they do reopen, distributors will begin battling to squeeze a large number of films into a limited number of opening dates, including&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/maddieberg/2020/03/12/hollywood-braces-for-coronavirus-slump-the-movie-releases-pushed-back-so-far/#3be198ba2bed">some major releases</a>&nbsp;that include the latest&nbsp;James Bond&nbsp;movie, Disney’s&nbsp;Mulan&nbsp;and Marvel’s&nbsp;Black Widow, all of which have been&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/maddieberg/2020/03/12/hollywood-braces-for-coronavirus-slump-the-movie-releases-pushed-back-so-far/#ad8a4d02bed6">pushed back</a>.



“No one can precisely predict when public life will return to normal, but it will return,” Patrick Corcoran, the president of the National Association of Theater Owners, said in a statement on Match 17. “When those titles are rescheduled, they will make for an even fuller slate of offerings than normal as they are slotted into an already robust release schedule later in the year.”



Last year, entertainment companies spent $121 billion to create original content and they were expected to spend even more this year as new platforms, like short-form video platform Quibi, emerge and streaming giants like Netflix and Amazon Prime continue to plow through cash to produce new shows that lure in subscribers. Disney, Netflix, Universal and a number of other studios have all but&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/maddieberg/2020/03/13/hollywood-studios-disney-netflix-halt-film-and-tv-production-amid-coronavirus/#327ea2195d28">shut down U.S. production</a>. In California alone, that activity supported more than 722,000 jobs and $68 billion in wages, according to the Motion Picture Association of America. In New York City, television and film production support about 10% of total employment, whether directly or indirectly, and generates almost $9 billion each year.



“Right now, we’re working to keep everyone safe, support the industry and find ways to help it come back stronger than ever,” a spokesperson for Mayor’s Office of Media and Entertainment said.



The sentiment mirrored that of Colleen Bell, the executive director of California’s Film Commission who said, “The entertainment production industry in California has overcome challenges in the past, and it will endure this sudden shutdown. Until the COVID-19 situation improves, the focus is rightfully on the public health crisis. After that’s behind us, the industry will once again thrive here in the Golden State.”



While those logistics will reverberate widely across show business sectors, consumers may be in for even bigger, long-lasting changes.&nbsp;



For TV shows, the near-term effects could be disappointing for fans looking forward to fresh episodes of their favorite shows. FX’s&nbsp;Fargo&nbsp;has shut down production and will have to delay new episodes. More series are sure to follow. Streamers have already changed the way we watch TV—introducing binge-watching and slowly eliminating cable subscriptions—and the more that cable and broadcast series are delayed, the more likely we will continue to move away from the appointment viewing of television’s past.



In film, a far more dramatic shift just happened: consumers may no longer need to fight crowds at movie theaters on opening nights. Universal Studios announced Monday that it would begin releasing films like&nbsp;Invisible Man, Emma&nbsp;and&nbsp;The Hunt&nbsp;available for in-home, on-demand rentals despite the fact that these films were only recently released, blowing up the entrenched windowing schedule that gave theater chains exclusive rights to show movies first before they were released to in-flight entertainment, rental platforms and then television. Sony followed, releasing Vin Diesel’s&nbsp;Bloodshot&nbsp;for digital purchase only 11 days after its theatrical release.



Others will likely do same and if they do, it could&nbsp;lead the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oscars-keep-rule-requiring-movies-to-have-theatrical-release-to-be-nominated-2019-04-24" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">change their theatrical-release&nbsp;</a><a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oscars-keep-rule-requiring-movies-to-have-theatrical-release-to-be-nominated-2019-04-24" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">rule</a>,&nbsp;which only allows films that open in a theatre and stay there for seven days to be considered for Oscars. It may also prompt Netflix to tighten its grip on the entertainment business with the purchase of a theater chain of its own. In 2018, the streaming giant looked at buying Landmark Theatres, but Cohen Media Group beat Netflix to the arthouse chain.



“If this continues for a long time, that will cause a change in how we consume content and allow newer titles to get to home video much faster,” says Asaf Ashkenazi, the COO of Verimatrix, a technology company that works with distributors in Hollywood. “If it’s a new title, you can delay it, continue to follow the traditional system and just wait. Or you can be more experimental and go directly to selling or renting online, which will allow more people to access it and get the revenue now.“&nbsp;



Other businesses are also turning to streaming, including&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackomalleygreenburg/2020/03/18/zombie-jamboree-for-a-struggling-livestream-startup-coronavirus-lockdown-offers-one-last-chance/#7811d2e15e24">concert-streamer StageIt</a>. The startup, which offers concerts from the likes of Jon Bon Jovi and Sara Bareilles, is on track to have revenue of $250,000 this week—about the same as its best month until now—and added&nbsp;10,000 subscribers in two days while hosting virtual festival “Shut In &amp; Sing.” Even New York’s Metropolitan Opera is in on it,&nbsp;<a href="https://operawire.com/metropolitan-opera-to-offer-up-nightly-met-opera-streams/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">streaming nightly performances</a>.



The stars themselves are also shifting their approach to how they entertain and communicate with fans. “Together, at Home,” a new series of online concerts presented by the World Health Organization (WHO) and Global Citizen, has recruited Chris Martin and John Legend to give casual concerts from their living rooms via Instagram Live, taking requests from fans and singing songs like David Bowie’s “Life on Mars.” Using Instagram, pop star Lizzo led a meditation, Frozen’s Josh Gad read kids a story, and, on Twitter, Yo-Yo Ma played a “<a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://twitter.com/YoYo_Ma/status/1238572657278431234" target="_blank">song of comfort.</a>” Entertainers have already <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/15/style/celebrity-phone-numbers.html" target="_blank">fully embraced </a>this kind of direct connection with fans and the pandemic may only accelerate that.



&#8211;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/maddieberg/">Madeline Berg</a>, Forbes Staff, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/media">Media</a>

High angle view of audience enjoying comedy movie at cinema hall

Coronavirus Could Be A $12 Billion Hit To Entertainment And Audiences May Never Be The Same

Kene Okwuosa continues to make profit selling the immersive cinema experience across movie halls
in Nigeria.



<hr class="wp-block-separator"/>



If trailers of Simon Kinberg’s upcoming X-Men: Dark Phoenix have whetted your appetite for more action-packed cinema, you could take your pick from the likes of Hobbs &amp; Shaw, John Wick 3: Parabellum or Avengers: End game. But as any film buff would tell you, watching these adrenaline rushes on DVD or TV is no match for a full-throttle cinema experience. 



Kene Okwuosa is bullish about letting Nigeria’s 190 million
population experience the thrilling excitement of the celluloid world. Using
the theater to extract a sizeable profit from the Nigerian culture of
socializing and communal engagement, his Filmhouse Cinemas has grown from just
three screens to multiple locations across the country.



As part of the company’s strategic expansion plans, Okwuosa signed a pioneer deal to bring IMAX, the world’s most immersive cinematic experience, to West Africa in 2016. In doing so, Filmhouse has flipped a switch not just to beat competition from other local cinema chains, but also become one of the fastest-growing IMAX businesses in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. 



READ MORE | <a rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="Worldwide Box Office, The Best It’s Ever Been (opens in a new tab)" href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/opinion/2019/07/22/worldwide-box-office-the-best-its-ever-been/" target="_blank">Worldwide Box Office, The Best It’s Ever Been</a>



Quite a feat considering Okwuosa’s first stint at the cinema
business did not have a happy ending. 



The year was 2008 and Okwuosa and his partner at the time,
also named Kene, were desperately looking for greener pastures beyond the borders
of the United Kingdom (UK), where they were both employed as assistant general
manager and general manager respectively at Odeon Cinemas.



“I had a conversation with Kene on the first of December
2008 and he was saying there is an opportunity with a friend of his who was an
investor in Nigeria and we could go back, set up a company and create a great
product in Nigeria. I resigned from my job on the second of December, I saw my
family on the third of December and I caught a flight on the fourth of December
after not being back in Nigeria for 11 years,” says Okwuosa.



And their voyage back home was favored by lady luck. A South African company at the time was exiting the Nigerian market and their assets were up for grabs. With the help of their investor, the pair bought up the assets and just like that, Genesis Deluxe Cinemas was born. It was a magical moment in the lives of the newly-minted entrepreneurs. 



READ MORE | <a rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="Marvel Money: How Six Avengers Made $340 Million Last Year (opens in a new tab)" href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/arts/2019/07/12/marvel-money-how-six-avengers-made-340-million-last-year/" target="_blank">Marvel Money: How Six Avengers Made $340 Million Last Year</a>



With three chains of Genesis Cinemas under their belt, the
pair were ready to reap the profits of their entrepreneurial pursuits until
everything went belly up.



“A year later, that deal went so bad we had to exit. Myself
and Kene exited the company to our dismay.&nbsp;
The private investor owned most of the business and there were issues
between the investor and my partner relating to a slight misalignment of the
company. We were torn between either staying in Lagos or going back to the UK.
We decided to stay and tug it out,” says Okwuosa.



The pair had to downsize from the guest house they were
staying in to a smaller flat and survived on noodles, while they hatched their
next plan. They turned their living room into an office and went back to the
drawing board. 



Okwuosa believed there was still a market in the cinema theater business and he was not wrong. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Nigerian film industry is globally recognized as the second-largest film producer in the world. Total cinema revenue is set to reach $22 million in 2021, rising at 8.6% CAGR over the forecast period. 



READ MORE | <a rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="Will Cinema Just Disappear? (opens in a new tab)" href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/arts/2019/03/28/will-cinema-just-disappear/" target="_blank">Will Cinema Just Disappear?</a>



The cinema industry is one of the priority sectors identified in the economic recovery growth plan of the federal government of Nigeria with a planned $1 billion in export revenue by 2020. Furthermore, the National Film and Video Censors Board estimates the Nigerian movie industry needs at least 774 cinemas across the country for it to tackle the menace of piracy. 



“So, for two years, I was literally waking up and going to
every single office trying to pitch and raise money. We didn’t know anybody and
we are not sons of rich men, we had already failed with Genesis, we had no
assets or collateral. We were literally telling people we were going to
modernize Nigeria’s entertainment scene and everybody was looking at us like we
were crazy.”



In 2009, the Intervention Funds, created by then president
Goodluck Jonathan to boost the Nigerian creative industry, would prove to be
the lifeline Okwuosa and his partner so badly needed.



“I am proud to say we were the very first to access that fund in 2012, which was about N200 million at the time which, when you look back is not that much but considering the exchange rate, it was over $1 million. It was enough to help us kickstart Filmhouse. We had nothing, so that particular facility was largely uncollateralized,” says Okwuosa.



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">The fund took a bet on Okuwosa and his partner and it paid off. The loan was used to open their first three-screen cinema in Surulere, Lagos. </blockquote>



“It had a slow start but ultimately grew to be one of the
biggest locations in the country and that organic growth led us to open two
more cinemas prior to our second round of investors, which was private equity
money from African Capital Alliance.” 



The investment helped Okwuosa to scale to 10 operational
locations across six states. The original vision when Okwuosa started Filmhouse
was to be the biggest and best cinema and create an amazing space where people
could escape into a different world. 



Two years after, the company set up the production and
distribution part of the business. 



Filmhouse now represents about 50% of tickets sold in Nigerian cinemas, according to Okwuosa. With just a dream to conquer the Nigerian market, today, Filmhouse has a vision to become a media entertainment company. 



READ MORE | <a rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="A $426.6 Million Opening Makes ‘Black Panther’ The Top-Grossing Film With A Black Cast (opens in a new tab)" href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/life/2018/02/22/426-6-million-opening-makes-black-panther-top-grossing-film-black-cast/" target="_blank">A $426.6 Million Opening Makes ‘Black Panther’ The Top-Grossing Film With A Black Cast</a>



In addition to IMAX, the company represents other
international brands like Warner Bros and Lionsgate. With the institutional
investment, Okwuosa has strengthened his core team, which no longer includes
his former partner, as well as providing the company the impetus to scale with
the right mind and right trajectory. 



With a GDP of $375 billion making the Nigerian economy the
30th largest economy in the world, Okwuosa believes there is still a big chunk
of money to be made from the entertainment and media space.



“I think we haven’t even scratched the surface of this
industry and we want to position ourselves at the forefront of Nigerian
entertainment.”

kene

The Movie Buff With A  Happy Ending  In Business

In Ajegunle, a neighborhood located in the heart of Lagos, Nigeria, Tunde Amaechi is readying for an audition. This will be his 20th in a month and today’s audition is on the other side of town in Victoria Island. The trip will cost him two weeks’ wages but the potential gain is worth it.
“I am auditioning for a role in Desperate Housewives Africa. I get to say three lines, which is very good for me. When you get a speaking part, it means you are moving up and I think I will get this one by God’s grace,” says Amaechi.
Nigeria’s growing movie industry, known as Nollywood, is the third largest in the world following Hollywood and Bollywood.
Its growth has spawned a generation of young people desperate for the limelight and a chance to make it big in the movie business. For Amaechi, it is the only way he can help his mother and two sisters escape poverty.
<div id="attachment_32086" style="width: 1034px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-32086" class="wp-image-32086 size-large" src="http://www.forbesafrica.com/app/uploads/2017/05/93Days-credit-Toronto-Film-Festival-1024x512.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="512" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/93Days-credit-Toronto-Film-Festival.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/93Days-credit-Toronto-Film-Festival-300x150.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/93Days-credit-Toronto-Film-Festival-600x300.jpg 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/93Days-credit-Toronto-Film-Festival-768x384.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" />Cast from 93 Days</div>
“I lost my father at an early age and since then I have been the main breadwinner of the house. Making it in Nollywood means my family will be taken care of and my little sisters will have a chance at a better life. It is also my dream to make it and be as big as Ramsey Nouah [popular Nigerian actor],” he says.
With no acting background, Amaechi, like millions of young struggling actors, is looking for that life-changing role and no distance is too far to travel for that break.
Chuks Amaka is an actor and entrepreneur living in Lekki, Victoria Island. He has featured in a number of roles including M-Net’s flagship daily soap Tinsel as well as some local productions and also played the role of executive producer in his own movie. For him, the movie industry, like any other, is a business and the end game is money.
“The goal is to cross over from Nollywood into Hollywood. That is where most actors want to go and that is where the money is. They believe if you build a strong enough brand in Africa’s largest economy, then America will come knocking,” says Amaka.
That belief is not far-fetched. In 2015, American actor Danny Glover starred in 93 Days, a film on the deadly Ebola virus in Nigeria. Acting with the veteran Hollywood star were some of Nollywood’s finest, all vying for international recognition. Beasts of No Nation, the Netflix-distributed civil war movie starring another Hollywood bigwig, Idris Elba, was also shot in Nigeria and Ghana with actors queuing up for hours for a part in a big Hollywood production.
“The natural evolution for any Nollywood actor is to make a name in Africa and then hit the big leagues in Hollywood. These type of blockbusters are hotly-contested and every actor knows this is a potential golden ticket,” says Amaka.
For Amaechi, however, that dream is too big to comprehend. Making a name in Nollywood is already a tall order. He has been auditioning for roles for the past year and is yet to secure any paid work. He supplements his income by working as a waiter at the local Bheerhugz Cafe in Ikeja, Lagos. The Desperate Housewives Africa role will be the first time he may be paid for his work. He is optimistic his fate will change.
“This means everything. I love acting and all I need is the opportunity for the world to see my talent. I know I can be one of the biggest in Nollywood then the rest of the world,” says Amaechi.
Austin Abolaji is a Nollywood actor from Imo State, Nigeria. In 2012, he starred in the action drama film, Black November, with an ensemble cast of international stars including Mickey Rourke, Kim Basinger, Vivica Fox and Wyclef Jean. The movie premiered at the Kennedy Center in the United States.
<div id="attachment_32088" style="width: 1034px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-32088" class="wp-image-32088 size-large" src="http://www.forbesafrica.com/app/uploads/2017/05/Omoni-Oboli-1024x615.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="615" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Omoni-Oboli.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Omoni-Oboli-300x180.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Omoni-Oboli-600x360.jpg 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Omoni-Oboli-768x461.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" />Omoni Oboli</div>
“Nollywood is still growing and there are massive opportunities in this sector, however it will take a long time before actors are paid properly for their craft. When you look at the average Hollywood actor, they get paid a lot better for the same roles we are doing here. This is one of the reasons why people want to make it in Hollywood,” says Abolaji.
Another reason is the acclaim.
“After Lupita Nyong’o won the Oscar, we all now believe it is possible. We saw her acting in MTV Shuga and to see one of us from Africa succeed in Hollywood is motivation for all of us. She is probably the biggest African actress in the world right now,” says Abolaji.
Nyong’o’s Oscar win has been the catalyst for a new lucrative career ranging from roles in Star Wars to brand endorsements with Lancome to being on the cover of Vogue magazine. Her success has opened up the once forbidden Hollywood dream to the rest of Africa and Nollywood’s elite is looking to follow suit one role at a time.

Idris-Elba-in-Beast-Of-No-Nation-credit-Netflix

Non-Stop  From Lagos To LA

Uncle Ebo Whyte is a six-foot-tall, unassuming looking man. You could mistake him for a steward of the theater rather than the father of it. He speaks in a soft but confident manner but has an attention to detail that is slightly intimidating as we sit down in his cosy office to discuss his journey as one of West Africa’s best known playwrights. Surprisingly, the love of his life arrived by accident.
“I didn’t have the confidence to join the drama society because it had all the popular boys and I suffered from inferiority complex in those days, so I couldn’t enter their circle. One day they needed someone to fill in during their rehearsals and I happened to be the only person standing in the window watching them. What the director didn’t realize was that I had memorized the lines. It took the director only five minutes to realize I would be able to give a better performance than the previous actor he had cast for the role,” says Whyte.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-5233" src="/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/OK_7086-200x300.jpg" alt="" width="200" height="300" />
In 1974, Whyte wrote his first play. It was called ‘Man Must Live’ and depicted the struggles of two sisters whose father died and left them penniless. The story had echoes of his life. As the first of five boys, Whyte grew up in a competitive household. When he was 15 years old, his father passed away and his family lost everything.
“I was devastated when he died, I think for a year or two I was totally lost. Those were the days before the Provisional National Defense Council (PNDC) law came into place, for when a man died intestate, which protects the widow and the children. So, all the extended family took everything from us apart from the house we were living in,” says Whyte.
After studying statistics at the University of Ghana, Whyte almost got chartered but decided last minute against accounting. He wanted a life of spinning stories into gold.
“Roverman Productions started in 2008. The problem was that there was no template for me to know how I could make theater production into a business. My first three attempts of making this work were financially disastrous because I came from the background where drama production was free, hence putting together plays you had to sell was difficult, thank God I learned how to do it,” says Whyte.
He began alone and now employs 15 permanent staff and an 80-man production team.
Getting an audience for the plays was the easy part. The difficulty for Whyte was securing money for the quality of production he wanted. Whyte wanted his production house to produce quarterly plays and to become big enough to be a name in Africa.
Tourists are a big market. According to the World Travel and Tourism Council, Ghana attracted 925,000 international tourists in 2015. In 10 years, international tourists are forecast to total 1.38 million. He reckons about 45% of the holidaymakers in Ghana come to his plays.
Then there was the tougher nut of corporate Ghana to crack.
“Gatekeepers in corporate Ghana could understand musical concerts but they could not understand how theater would work. We were the first company to pioneer theater in Ghana. When they saw how many people we were able to pull, they came easier and it became a much easier sell,” says Whyte.
“We have huge goodwill in the various boardrooms in Ghana. What is happening now is that a lot of the big companies are being controlled from outside Ghana and because the people pulling the strings are not in Ghana, they do not care about spending money here because they do not know about what is on the ground. So it is usually a budgetary issue with companies.”
Eight years on and there are still problems. Like the rest of Ghana, the theater is hampered by another drama – power cuts.
“One terrible moment was last quarter when the lights went out at the national theatre in the middle of the production. We were using a generator, which stopped an hour and half into the production. I think I died inside. Not because we couldn’t solve the situation because we got the power back in 30 minutes, but because of the excellence I look to achieve. I do not want my patrons to take certain things for granted. They should expect to pay for their tickets and nothing will go wrong. They do not need any excuses and I do not want to give them any. The fact that I could not deliver a production without a hiccup was very bad,” says Whyte.
George Ofori runs an art gallery in Accra. His family owned a theater business in the late 70s when stage productions were popular.
“The theater business died during the military rule where there were widespread curfews. My father and a lot of other production houses had to find new ways of making money back then. After that, the theater business has never really bounced back and a lot of people have struggled to make the business viable,” says Ofori.
“The theater business in Ghana is still very much at an evolving and developmental stage with a gradual effort towards audience cultivation. The potential for growth into a viable, consistent and highly rewarding industry is very high. Presently, Roverman Productions is the most identifiable theater entity owing to the consistent quality productions over the last eight years,” says Kabutey Ocansey, Head of Business Development for Roverman Productions.
For those closest to Whyte, his passion for the business is palpable.
“He is a perfectionist and passionate about theater and feels that Ghana has the talent to compare with any theater group in the world if we so desire and are willing to work diligently,” says Felicia Mensah, Customer Relations Coordinator at Roverman Productions.
For Whyte it is not just about business. It is about families dressing up and sharing in their cultural heritage. The golden tradition of families sitting by the fireside and sharing stories may be long gone in the world of the cell phone, but there is a renaissance of storytelling in Ghana and Whyte is responsible for this. As he recounts his journey, the quiet and reserved man is clearly in his element.

The Father Of Ghanaian Theater

Nothing signifies the unbridled optimism in this East African nation more than the well-known Swahili phrase Kenya hakuna matata: there are no troubles in Kenya, which is bandied around in tourism circles; printed on T-shirts and repeated in blockbuster movies like Out of Africa and The Constant Gardener. But its economy has known more trouble than relief.
When inflation reached 100%, in 1993, President Daniel Moi printed money to fund his re-election campaign for the country’s first multi-party elections.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-1440" src="/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/dreamstime_m_6306839-245x300.jpg" alt="" width="245" height="300" />
Before President Mwai Kibaki was elected in late 2002, Kenya’s economy was in bad shape. Its growth averaged 1.1% for two consecutive years and shrank to minus 0.2% in 2000. Key sectors were stagnant; agriculture and tourism recorded marginal growth of 0.7% and 0.8% respectively.
To resuscitate the economy, government formulated the Economic Recovery for Wealth and Employment Creation Strategy in 2003, which hinged growth on the overhaul of infrastructure as well as political and economic reforms that would unshackle the economy. The most notable result was the investment of billions of dollars on infrastructure—from roads and railways to electricity. Since 2004 growth has averaged 5% and peaked at 7% in 2007.
Kenya’s economy is dominated by agriculture; the sector employs more than 70% of the population and accounts for 24% of the GDP. More than a third of Kenya’s agricultural produce is exported, which accounts for around 60% of the country’s exports. This, despite the fact that its arable land is a paltry 15%, the rest is either too dry or infertile
Irrigation systems could double this percentage. The country’s cash crops—tea, coffee and horticulture—have led to an increase in earnings due to high commodity prices.
Last year, the country exported 48% of its goods to African countries, mostly in the East African Community (EAC) trading bloc, which is not severely affected by the Eurozone debt crisis. During the last decade, however, Kenya’s imports have surpassed its exports. Despite a surge due to high global crop prices, earnings from its top four exports have been insufficient to pay for oil imports.
The services sector follows closely behind, with tourism leading the pack. Tourism earnings rose by 32.8% in 2011, bringing more than $1 billion to the country. Other sectors like wholesale and retail, transport, communications and education are following suit.
Kenya is a hub for the ICT sector with the largest fiber optic network in the region. M-Pesa—the mobile money transfer service operated by Vodafone’s subsidiary Safaricom—transfers $27 million a day and has more than 25 million mobile subscribers.
By the end of the year, the economy is expected to have grown between 3.5 and 4.5%, according to government projections; while World Bank estimates stand at  5%. Inflation, driven by high oil prices and inadequate rainfall which lead to high food prices, has fallen from 14% last year to around 5% this year.
The 2008 post-election violence saw more than 1,000 fatalities and led to a decline in economic growth from 7% in 2007 to 1.5% in 2008. Kenya’s new constitution, enacted in 2010, is expected to herald good governance and reforms. Yet the economy still faces structural challenges. According to the World Bank, its economy has become even more vulnerable as the country’s current account deficit could reach 15% of GDP this year. This is among the worst external balances in the world and poses a significant risk to Kenya’s economic stability. A sharp rise in oil prices could trigger severe inflation and economic downturn. Its debt levels of 45% are in decline from 65% at the turn of the century and are below the global benchmark of 60%.
Like many other African countries, Kenya  faces an energy shortage, which allows for investment from the private sector. The peak power demand, estimated at 1,191MW, is projected to grow at 7% annually over the next decade. To meet this  demand, the generating capacity will have to be raised from 1,534 MW to 2,263 MW by 2018.
State-owned Kenya Electricity Generating Company (KenGen) is set on providing geothermal power in the future. Investors are establishing wind farms in Northern Kenya as part of the Lake Turkana Wind Power Project. The government is looking to partner with the private sector to generate coal power, after deposits were discovered in the eastern region. Hydro and thermal power accounts for 80% of the country’s total generation, making its energy price susceptible to high oil prices and power rationing when rains fail.
On the social and political end, half of the population is younger than 35 and unemployment is at around 40% of the country’s 42 million. Experts says that job creation, especially among the youth, is necessary for long-term stability. Two of the leading candidates in the upcoming March elections—Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto—face crimes against humanity charges at the International Criminal Court at The Hague over their role in the 2008 post-election violence.
Vision 2030—which aims to make Kenya a medium income country by 2030—is hinged on economic growth of 10% per annum through governance reforms and a focus on infrastructure, energy and science. By that time, the population is expected to reach 60 million.
The recent discovery of commercially viable oil will welcome new investments and save the country on its huge monthly oil bill. Tullow, a London-based oil and gas company, discovered 143 meters of net pay oil deposits in northern Kenya. More than 23 companies have exploration licenses.
Mining—which contributes 1% to the economy and is confined to the extraction of soda ash—may receive a boost after Tiomin Resources, of Canada, was allowed to mine titanium deposits along Kenya’s southern coastline.
Infrastructure, needed to foster more trade, is also set to improve. The $23 billion Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor (LAPPSET) project is being touted as one of the biggest in Africa. It will entail the construction of a port, standard gauge railway, pipeline and highways connecting Kenya, South Sudan and Ethiopia. Throw in a resort city at Isiolo, in Northern Kenya, and they are betting it will be a winner.
As the World Bank aptly put it in 2010, if Kenya is an airplane, it’s flying on one engine. If the second is turned on, the  economy will ascend at supersonic speed, like a fighter jet.

‘Flying On One Engine’

This is the story of businessman Ronnie Apteker, his money and his expensive passion. A man sharp enough to get in early on the internet boom in Africa’s biggest economy; a man wise enough to have sold out before the market became crowded, three years later, for $55 million. He doesn’t know how much he is worth, but does admit he never has to work again.
This is also a man who has lost nearly $7 million in 11 years, chasing the elusive dream of fathering a blockbuster movie.
“I would be far wealthier if I had done nothing for the last 11 years, but my life has been richer for the risks I have taken… I love story telling. I love magic and I love trying to inspire people,” he says.
This month will see the release of a film he thinks is a winner that will compensate for the years of pain and losses. It is a low-budget film called Material, set in the gritty inner-city district of Fordsburg in Johannesburg and starring South African stand-up comedian Riaad Moosa. He says it could be a cheap and cheerful international hit like Bend it Like Beckham or Billy Elliot.
It all started in the early 1970s in Cape Town, when Apteker’s father won a 16mm film projector in a game of backgammon. From then on, Sunday night was film night at the Aptekers.
“The whole neighbourhood in Cape Town used to come in and see them. You remember those leather cases with the handles. In our rented house we used to watch Dirty Harry, The Dirty Dozen, The Guns of Navarone, The Good, the Bad and the Ugly. I grew up in a movie-watching home. I watched more movies by the time I was 13 than most people watch by the time they are 30,” he says.
Apteker’s working life took a different turn. It was the internet, not movies, that became his bread and butter. In 1993, he founded Internet Solutions in the days when 99.9% of South Africans didn’t know even what it was.
“People used to phone us and say the internet is broken, or they used to ask who they can email. I used to give them my email address and they used to email me because they had no one else to email!” he laughs.
The internet made Apteker a fortune before he was 30. Then he tried a much harsher business—movies.
“If you build a cheap house, you can sell it for half price and get some money back. If you make a bad movie, you may not sell one ticket and lose everything. You can even end up owing money. It is not a normal business, it’s like a casino.”
Apteker started writing scripts in 1996 and the first film came in 2000—a 95-minute movie shot in Los Angeles called Purpose, the tale of the battle for the soul of a young entrepreneur working in California’s Silicon Valley.
“A lot of people said it reminded them of The Social Network, but sadly, it wasn’t as good,” says Apteker.
The film didn’t do well. It cost $8 million and Apteker was lucky enough to claw back $3 million by selling it to distributors Lakeshore International.
A string of homegrown movies with limited success followed, including: Jerusalema, The Flyer and Crazy Monkey: Straight Outta Benoni.
Fast forward to the latest offering, Material, starring South African comic flavor-of-the-month, Moosa. In many ways, the film mirrors his own life. In a nutshell, Material is the story of a father who wants his son to stick to his day job—that is, running the family store—instead of telling jokes on stage.
In real life, Moosa also gave his day job the slip. He trained as a doctor at the University of Cape Town and carried out his internship at Natalspruit Hospital, near Johannesburg, before settling down to practise as a GP in Cape Town for a couple of years.
The draw of the stage proved too strong and in the evenings, Moosa was cracking around the small theatres of the Western Cape. He had no illusions and already knew what it felt like to “die”—as the actors say—on stage.
“It used to happen a lot when I was younger. The most difficult time was when I was doing magic in high school. It was comedy magic. I had studied at the College of Magic in Cape Town. I was supposed to make a ball fly across the stage—there was a wire involved. There was a dude taking photos with flash and every time the flash went off, you could see the washing line across the stage. I was trying to make it dramatic and it was obvious. I heard one little girl say: ‘There is a wire there, mum!’ At that moment, I thought ‘I had another eight minutes to go of this sham.”
Material is Moosa’s first foray into film and he identifies with his character. “I am really proud of it. I think when people watch, they will laugh and cry. They will be challenged.”
So what happens if Moosa makes it to Hollywood and the big time? He pledges not to let success go to his head.
“What is this fame thing? One minute you are normal, the next minute you are shaving your head on the cover of Heat magazine. One minute you are normal, the next you are getting an 18-year-old pregnant. I prefer driving home at night and getting shouted at by my wife… I shouldn’t let it go to my head; I think through medicine you face reality head on.”
Apteker believes any success would be a good thing and refuses to give up his movie quest, whatever the cost.
“It is an obsession. I have got to get this right. It is like you either get this right or die trying. There is no middle ground in love, there is no middle ground in art. There is no middle ground when you are an entrepreneur—you either win or go home in a coffin,”  he says.
<h3>Well, Is It Any Good?</h3>
There is mistrust when it comes to homegrown cinema. Everyone has waited long for the great African movie—maybe, just maybe, Material is it. So says Rea Bantseke, who went to the preview screening in Sandton, near Johannesburg.
The story is simple. A young Muslim man wants to become a stand-up comedian, but has to do it behind his family’s back because it clashes with their culture. The movie examines clearly the struggle of a Muslim family to uphold its traditions in 21st century South Africa.
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I was looking for the mistakes and the glitches, but there was nothing. The movie is shot beautifully and it makes you feel like you are part of the family. The story flows and is well told.
Everyone will have something that they can identify with in this movie. It will make you laugh, it will make you question, it will bring a tear to your eye.
This unique movie is hard to classify as a genre because it fuses drama, romance and comedy. It is likely to appeal to all ages. Material will leave you with hope that if this story can see the light of day, there must be many more.
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Tag: movies

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