When Sai Ramakrishna Karuturi was looking to start a new business quickly,  East Africa beckoned.
He identified Kenya and Ethiopia for cultivating and exporting roses, bought 311,000 hectares of land, employed 10,000 people and today his company, Karuturi Global Ltd, produces around 555 million stems a year and is widely recognized as the pioneer of cut flower production. Almost its entire produce is exported to high-end markets in Europe, where it has 9% of the market, as well as to North America and Asia.
<div id="attachment_205" style="width: 484px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-205" class="size-large wp-image-205" src="/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/94833459-1024x683.jpg" alt="" width="474" height="316" />A woman carries a bucket of roses at Roshanara Roses flower farm in Debre Zeit, Oromia, Ethiopia</div>
“Six years ago I was very dissatisfied with India,” he told FORBES AFRICA from Dar es Salaam, where he was looking for new business.
“Business in India is fragmented and land is expensive. It’s easier to look abroad instead of starting a business from scratch here.”
Several market studies later, Karuturi chose Kenya and Ethiopia as the most cost-competitive countries in which to grow flowers—and it paid off. For six straight years, the company has grown exponentially by 20% a year.
“Ethiopia has a good workforce. Two million people are unemployed and 25% of the population is under the age of 25, which means that there’s a huge supply of labor. Kenya, by comparison, has a smaller population. The cost of labor is less competitive, but it has other advantages like cheaper logistics and better infrastructure.”
Karuturi Global’s other core interest is food processing which, while still being executed in India, has grown fast in Africa.
“It’s an interesting fact that Africa is one of the biggest importers of food in the world. It’s clever to be growing food in Africa because there is a high demand for it. Food is really expensive on the continent. Lands are fertile, which coupled with the huge labor force, make it an ideal destination for agriculture and food production.”
Karuturi advises, though, that one does one’s homework. “You need to be patient. It’s better to take the time to understand the local legislation, as this is where companies fall down by disregarding the law, processes and culture of African countries. Too many people in the business world try to show Africa as a place where it’s difficult to do business and make investments. But it actually provides an ideal opportunity and the returns are very good.”
Bill Levine, managing director of Ecoterra Technologies (ETT), agrees but warns that without a local partner who knows the culture and has contacts with people at the top, it’s difficult to go far.
“We stalled at the beginning because we weren’t talking to the right people. There’s a lot of competition at a local level between governmental agencies, NGOs and investors from the country’s diaspora.
“Ethiopia is far from the usual portrait we see in the media; it’s a country full of opportunities. It has 11% GDP and a large proportion of the population is making money, especially in the cities. They have high mountains, perfect for producing wind energy, a lot of water for hydroelectricity and cows and goats for dairy and meat production. Most of the investors, local and foreign, are interested in bio-fuel energy production and/or infrastructure development like low-cost, eco-smart roads. Compared to countries like America, where the energy sector is already under the control of oil companies and other forms of non-sustainable energies, here you can make a profit.”
But he agrees it takes patience.
“There is no quick fix. You have to build a lot of infrastructure. We just finished building our first road and it went really well. At the moment most investors are locals, which means that the country is ripe for foreign investment—there are many areas without roads and power and where there is no competition.
“I have a sense of urgency that if we don’t turn Africa around, it will be exploited wrongly and all the great potential that comes from the environment and the people will be destroyed. We are looking for investors right now, trying to get them involved, especially in hydro electricity.”
And time is running out for investors to become involved.
The next 10 years are ideal for foreign investment, according to Eliezer Gil Yasu, one of many Ethiopians living abroad.
“Now is the time to invest in Ethiopia. Now you can make business there without needing so much money. But a decade from now, Ethiopia will be like everywhere else and you’ll need lots of money to make any real profit,” he says.
Based in Israel, Yasu is one of the 100,000 Ethiopians who left their country over the past 30 years. He heads the Ethiopian desk of Doron Tikotzky and Co. legal firm while also running a business that exports ceramics from Turkey to Ethiopia.
“There’s a joke where two people arrive in Ethiopia and see that no one has shoes. The one says, ‘No shoes! There’s no opportunity here,’ while the other says, ‘No shoes! There’s great potential here!’ It’s up to you how you see the market.
“If you want to invest in a rich country because people there have money, don’t go to Ethiopia. But if you understand that a place that has nothing is full of opportunities, then this is the country for you.”
Yasu mostly assists clients by putting them in contact with the right people and ministries: “Ethiopian bureaucracy is a nightmare and can take six months to master,” he chuckles.
On the plus side, the government encourages investment by giving incentives such as loans, exemptions from tax for several years, and even providing water if it is needed.
“Politically, the country is stable and security is very good. Ethiopia has developed quickly in the last 10 years. There are a lot of natural resources—gold, iron, gas, aluminum—which bring many opportunities for construction, while the workforce is very cheap and people are motivated to work.”
But Yasu admits there are risks.
“I had a client who wanted to grow hummus seeds and the government gave him a place very close to Sudan. For one year he cultivated the land until the Sudanese government ordered him to leave, saying it was their property.
The Ethiopian government apologized, compensated him and explained they thought it was theirs, but he’d lost money and time.”
Which is why Gideon Peri, a consultant for several daughter companies of one of the largest public companies in Ethiopia, the Endowment Fund For the Rehabilitation of Tigray (EFFORT), warns that while the country is an attractive investment destination, potential investors need to prepare in advance a detailed study on the area in which they wish to invest and always use the services of a local lawyer and partner.
“The difficulties in Ethiopia are the frequent stoppage and failure of power supplies, even in the capital; the frequent failure of communication systems; limitations on imports; government control and regulations; and tough foreign currency control. But the government is well aware of the need for development and appreciates foreign investment as an effective means of bringing in money and knowledge. So the opportunities are there.”

Out Of The Dust  Grow The Roses  Of Success

According to the landlords, contemporaries, teachers and neighbors who have lined up in front of the media in recent weeks, Kweku Adoboli was a sociable, intelligent and overwhelmingly ‘nice guy’.
The financial community in London remains awash with speculation about how that nice guy from the industrial coastal town of Tema, in Ghana, came to be in a position to lose the Swiss bank, UBS, more than $2 billion as well as its CEO.
Adoboli’s background speaks of privilege, but is unremarkable amongst his peers in the City. The 31-year-old son of a UN staffer was schooled at the fee-paying, Quaker-run Ackworth School in West Yorkshire, where he was deputy head boy.
<div id="attachment_193" style="width: 484px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-193" class="size-large wp-image-193" src="/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/125271682-692x1024.jpg" alt="" width="474" height="701" />UBS Trader in court</div>
He studied computer science and business at the University of Nottingham before joining UBS, where he worked until 3:30 in the morning on September 15, when the City of London police arrested him at the offices of UBS in Finsbury Avenue. Later that morning, UBS announced that it had made a loss of $2 billion due to “unauthorised trading”. It later revised the figure upwards to $2.3 billion.
Adoboli remains in custody in London on two charges of fraud—for the periods October 2008 to December 2010, and from January to September 2011; plus two charges of false accounting—from October 2008 to December 2009, and January 2010 to September 2011.
Facing charges, Adoboli told a court that he was “sorry beyond words” and called his vast trading losses “disastrous miscalculations”.
Those miscalculations have called into question the survival of investment banking at UBS, as the bank decides whether to cut off a division battered by poor performance and scandal. Oswald Gruebel, the bank’s CEO, resigned over the affair on September 25.
As Adoboli’s LinkedIn profile shows, he worked on the investment bank’s European equity desk in London, trading “Delta One” strategies.
“Delta One” refers to the ‘delta’—or marginal difference—between closely correlated asset classes. By buying equities and hedging using derivative products or baskets of other assets, these computer-driven strategies mop up money through the inefficiencies in the market. It is highly complex, but is also supposed to work within tightly controlled risk limits. For every position the trader takes, he or she is expected to take a counter position—or hedge—of almost equal size.
The Swiss and British authorities are now investigating how Adoboli was able to evade the systems that monitor these limits to place directional bets. The results of those probes are likely to be months away, but the investigators will no doubt have seized on Adoboli’s CV and its startling similarity to that of the last headline-grabbing rogue, the French trader, Jerome Kerviel. Kerviel cost Société Générale, the French bank, $6.6 billion in 2008.
Starting in the bank’s “middle office”—the risk management IT department—in 2000, Kerviel made the jump up to trading in 2005, also on a Delta One desk. The bank’s comprehensive “Mission Green” report into the incident charts his activity from that point. He began to take directional bets that same year, probably to cover up the fact that he had been consistently losing using conventional strategies, the report said.
Kerviel used his knowledge of the bank’s risk systems to hide the fact that his positions were not hedged, creating fictitious counter trades by buying securities with deferred start dates or with counterparties that did not require immediate confirmation. Using passwords from other SocGen employees, he was able to go back into the system and remove the trades, fooling the risk monitoring tools. It worked for more than two years and reaped a fortune.
In January 2008, though, Kerviel was found out. He had amassed directional positions in European stock indices totalling almost €50 billion ($6.6 billion). The day that the bank began to unwind these positions was “Black Monday”, January 21, when UK, European and Asian markets fell dramatically.
That he was found out in a period of acute market stress is not a coincidence. The hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management, collapsed after the Russian sovereign debt crisis in 1998. The world’s most famous rogue, Nick Leeson, whose limit-busting trades out of Asia brought down Barings Bank, was shaken out in the aftermath of the 1995 Kobe Earthquake. Both events saw highly volatile markets with large price movements.
Like Kerviel at SocGen, Adoboli began his career at UBS in the bank’s IT department, maintaining and managing those same risk systems that were supposed to keep traders in check. Whether he used that knowledge will likely be a thrust of the investigation against him.
While systems and practices differ between banks, traders often admit that limits really are flexible. There are often subtle ways for traders, with good reputations, to go around the risk management practices that, while they reduce the potential for losses, also constrain a trader’s ability to take educated punts when they have a strong conviction.
This, cynical traders say, is why rogues can get away with deceit for long periods: no-one gets fired for winning. It is only when they lose that they have to “go write the book”—that is, be escorted out of the building by security at best, or the police.
Kerviel was, according to SocGen, at it for years. Leeson began his rogue activity in 1992, initially winning big before his fortunes turned and he began to hide his losses in the now infamous account number 88888. Adoboli’s charges—for which he has not entered a plea—cover almost four years.
Traders are understandably reluctant to go on the record about their peers who ‘go rogue’, but as more than one hinted, if you are considered good enough, hard boundaries get softer. If you break the rules and lose, though, you are on your own.

From Ghana, To London, To A Cell – Africa’s Rogue Trader

The city of Mutare, set in a hollow on the Zimbabwe-Mozambique border, is sweltering under another blue sky. In this border town hemmed in by dramatic mountains, a small scene is being played out in the historic stage play that is Zimbabwe’s indigenization policy.
The lead actor is 52-year-old Charles Tawazadza—a man who has gone from manager to boss at this busy dry dock almost overnight, thanks to the country’s attempt to give black Zimbabweans a larger slice of the economy.
<div id="attachment_143" style="width: 484px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-143" class="size-large wp-image-143" src="/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Dryport_4-801x1024.jpg" alt="" width="474" height="606" />Mutare Dry Port, Charles Tawazadza</div>
“When you talk about this wealth, you are talking about the wellbeing of generations. We did not borrow this land or economy from our ancestors. We borrowed it for the future generations to come. If we don’t acquire it and make good use of it, future generations will be spitting on our graves instead of praising us,” he says.
The company, through which Tawazadza now strolls confidently in his corporate uniform, is one of thousands of foreign-owned outfits across Zimbabwe that appear destined to be taken over by people born and bred in the country. They range from mines to banks and safari companies. The Empowerment Ministry has threatened to revoke or suspend operating licences for more than 500 foreign owned companies, which haven’t yet fallen in line. That is a lot of valuable equity up for grabs and the word is the well connected are hovering.
Tawazadza has taken over Mutare Dry Port, a shipping cargo company with a $3 million asset value. It used to be called GMS Cornelder and had been owned by Mozambican investors since 2000. When pressure came to hand over 51% of the equity, the Mozambicans put forward Tawazadza, who had worked in management at the company for many years, to take control and settled for being minority shareholders.
Even Tawazadza’s name fitted—in Shona it means “to fill up”. Mutare Dry Port has rail sidings with a holding capacity of 24 wagons, a general and bonded warehouse, plus container handling equipment. It has global networks through partnerships operating under specialized air and ocean freights, road and rail transportation, and warehousing and container handling. It means everything from second-hand cars from Japan, to fruit from South America, arrives at Mutare Dry Port to fill up the rolling stock. Many of the goods arrive at docks in Beira in Mozambique and are shipped by rail to Mutare.
Rail runs into Tawazadza’s huge transit shed and container yard, which handles 180,000 tons of shipments every month. There’s even a runway—a legacy of the British Royal Air Force, which used the site as a base during World War II. Tawazadza compares the indigenization laws to the 2000 seizure of farms by liberation war veterans. He says they too are part of an “economic emancipation” program to empower black people.
Against the allegations that these deals are merely for political cronies, Tawazadza says: “I have never met Mugabe. The laws are not anything to enrich Mugabe. He was our leader during the liberation struggle, and he is our leader today in this struggle for economic emancipation. “If you look at the noise which is coming out of the indigenization and economic empowerment, it will come to pass,” Tawazadza says.
The whites in Zimbabwe, Tawazadza says, are “calledRhodesians because Cecil John Rhodes was here to create wealth for them. And this is what President Mugabe is doing for us.” President Mugabe’s jumbled commercial farm seizures have reduced agricultural production, leaving unexploited farms, after driving out over 4,000 former white farmers in the name of an agrarian revolution. Independent economist John Robertson claims farm production is 60% down compared to 1998, although government figures refute this. “Over 4,000 white farmers have been replaced by over 400,000 black owners. All these blacks represent Mugabe’s vision,” Tawazadza said. “People are negotiating and cutting deals without government intervention. I acquired this company on my own.
No one from government came to negotiate on my behalf,” Tawazadza said. But the laws could prove a Pyrrhic victory for a country desperate to emerge from a long recession. Capital could dry up, and the capacity of Zimbabweans to borrow and increase production may be limited. Investors say the laws could scare foreign companies with concerns about property rights, leaving Zimbabwe as a hard sell.
Ray William Black, of Investec Securities, said at a recent investor conference in Harare: “The economy of Zimbabwe has been improving over the last years, but to attract investment, foreign investors have a choice to make. If one country has more onerous conditions than another, then investment will stay away.
<div id="attachment_144" style="width: 484px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-144" class="size-large wp-image-144" src="/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Dryport_5-1024x655.jpg" alt="" width="474" height="303" />Mutare Dry Port, Charles Tawazadza</div>
“No country should make it too difficult for investors if they want to attract money. In Zimbabwe, companies that have been operating are caught between a rock and a hard place. They are already under immense pressures, and facing major changes.”
Back in Mutare, Tawazadza has plans to expand and turn his company into a $10 million asset. For a man in the cargo business, with a name that means filling up, there is no turning back or thought of unloading his new business.

51% Or Our Children Will Spit On Our Graves

Carletonville, 60km west of Johannesburg, is a town teeming with miners, but on this day there are none to be seen. The reason: a gold miners’ strike over pay for the first time in more than six years.
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It is a strike that cost the gold mining industry 15,900 ounces of gold production a day, meaning losses of $23 million daily, according to Kobus Nel, a mining analyst at Stanlib in Johannesburg. The strike will dent the share prices of South Africa’s largest gold miners: AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields and Harmony. The reason—one of the most fractious rounds of pay talks in South African mining history. The negotiations, held every two years, are crucial for planning for the industry as wages make up more than half of mining costs.
The gold companies thought they were going to have an easy ride this year with inflation at around 5%. The employers hoped to settle swiftly for between 8 and 9% and many labour analysts agreed. Employers were, however, flabbergasted in May when the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM)—the most powerful union in the land—asked for 14% and a package of costly demands. The employers calculated that these demands translated to an effective 25% increase in costs. Elize Strydom, the chief negotiator for the employers, described the demands as “disappointing and distressing”.
An opening offer of 4% was rejected with disdain by unions. To complicate matters further, the gold companies were divided. AngloGold Ashanti and Gold Fields were happy to raise the offer, while Harmony, with its old and marginal shafts, stuck to a lower offer. The unions in South Africa are on a mission, encouraged by a record high gold price, to close the wage gap between the lowest paid, toiling with shovels, and the highest paid, sitting in boardrooms. “These employers have rested on their laurels for too long—we want 14%, or we will strike,” said Lesiba Seshoka, the national spokesman for the NUM. It all boiled down to a deadlock at an offer between 8 and 9% on July 25, followed by an all-out gold strike three days later.
On the day, AngloGold Ashanti and Harmony were down about 3%, closing at R281.11 and R91.19 respectively. “If the strike lasts a week, the loss of production will represent 6.5% of quarterly production, quite a hit on the industry,” said Nel.
Surprisingly, Gold Fields closed flat at R103.50. Nel said Gold Fields may have been unscathed because it had already been aggressively sold o‑ due to its exposure to Peru where there was a threat of an increase in taxes. With stock markets forward looking, much of the negative impact of the strike had already been priced into the shares .Also on the day, investors were jittery about the European debt crisis and the political brinkmanship playing out in the United States over the great debt limit saga. These fears kept investors buying gold, pushing the price to record highs. Nel expects  the  gold  price  to  rise  and  rise  in  the months  to  come.  He  sees  it  peaking  at  $1,677  per  troy ounce  in  the  first  quarter of 2012.
AngloGold Ashanti, Gold  Fields  and  Harmony  the  day after  the  commencement  of  the  strike  were  relatively  flat closing  at  R281.00,  R103.60  and  R90.75  respectively. All  in  all,  the  last  week  in  July  proved  an  expensive one  for  South  Africa’s  three  gold  giants  and  their shareholders.

Gold Shutdown

Gabon has a population of about 1.5 million people and is an upper middle-income country with a $13.1 billion economy. It may be one of the wealthiest nations on the continent, but it suffers from gaping inequality. The richest 20% of the population accounts for 90% of income; a third live in poverty.
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According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), growth in 2010 was 5.7%, following a contraction of 1.4% in 2009 due to the global recession. The IMF expects growth to remain relatively flat in 2011 at 5.6%. It also expects public investment and a rebound in mining to underpin growth this year.  On the other hand, the IMF sees a slowing global economy and the associated downward pressure on commodity prices as a downside risk to growth.
Gabon’s wealth relies on oil, which makes up over 70% of exports, with estimated proven oil reserves of two billion barrels at the beginning of 2010. With faltering oil prices and production constraints, Gabonese authorities are set on diversifying the economy away from this reliance on oil. The government plans to transform by creating a business-friendly environment. To achieve this goal, it is embarking on a public investment drive.
Manganese mining and logging are the economy’s other two key sectors. Gabon also has the world’s largest iron ore deposit, which is likely to attract further investment in the mining sector. Agriculture and tourism remain small sectors in the economy due to a lack of infrastructure.
Industry makes up nearly two-thirds of the economy, while services make up nearly a third. Agriculture is a mere 4.5% of the economy.
Gabon has a benign political environment. The incumbent president is Ali-Ben Bongo Ondimba from the long-ruling Gabonese Democratic Party (PDG). He was elected in 2009 following the death of his father, Omar Bongo Ondimba. Despite the opposition crying foul that the vote was flawed, Gabon has remained stable.
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The country is due to hold legislative elections in November. The current legislature’s mandate ends in January.  In May, the president asked the country’s constitutional court to delay the election for a year so that the country can focus on hosting the African Cup of Nations in January. Gabon is a co-host with Equatorial Guinea. The delay is also to allow for the introduction of a biometric voter system to avoid election fraud. With both the ruling party and opposition essentially in agreement for a postponement, the constitutional court is likely to grant the request.

Tag: Investment

FORBES AFRICA SOCIAL MEDIA

Out Of The Dust Grow The Roses Of Success

From Ghana, To London, To A Cell – Africa’s Rogue Trader

51% Or Our Children Will Spit On Our Graves

Gold Shutdown

Iron Ore Galore