With new coronavirus cases rising in 26 states, according to <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states" target="_blank">data</a> from Johns Hopkins, and the national conversation turning to whether those states rushed to reopen their economies too quickly, new analysis from Goldman Sachs suggests that in the coming weeks, hospital capacity (rather than case numbers) is the factor most likely to prompt another lockdown.



KEY FACTS



<ul><li>Goldman’s experts say hospital data is a more reliable picture of the spread of the virus nationwide than positive test results, which fluctuate with changes in testing trends. </li></ul>



<ul><li>The analysts noted, however, that “there is probably a high hurdle for states to reinstate lockdowns.” </li></ul>



<ul><li>As new cases continue to rise across the country, Goldman’s analysts also tracked which states currently meet federal reopening criteria based on four factors: symptoms, cases, testing and hospitalizations and fatalities. </li></ul>



<ul><li>Only Arizona and Alabama fail in all four categories, the analysts say; symptoms and cases are on the rise, positive test rates are high, and hospitals are nearing their maximum capacities. </li></ul>



<ul><li>On the other hand, 19 states meet all four criteria for reopening, including several former hot spots like New York and New Jersey, and the vast majority of states meet at least three out of the four criteria.</li></ul>



KEY BACKGROUND



Along with Alabama and Arizona, California, Texas, and Florida have also seen sharp upticks in infections in recent days. Florida reported a <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429" target="_blank">record increase</a> in new cases on four out of the six days between June 15 and 20, for instance. The number of confirmed cases since the pandemic started has now swelled to over 100,000, and Gov. Ron DeSantis said the uptick is “clearly” the result of a failure to follow social distancing guidelines. With cases on the rise, some places—like Arizona—are forging ahead with reopening plans while others—in <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://bangordailynews.com/2020/06/22/business/janet-mills-postpones-reopening-indoor-bar-service-citing-infections-in-other-states/" target="_blank">Maine</a>, <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.npr.org/2020/06/15/876962133/as-covid-19-cases-rise-oregon-pauses-reopening-arizona-doesnt" target="_blank">Oregon</a>, and <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://fox4kc.com/tracking-coronavirus/with-covid-19-cases-on-the-rise-wyandotte-county-will-pause-full-re-opening-until-at-least-july-6/" target="_blank">Kansas</a>, for instance—are tightening up restrictions again.



&#8211;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahhansen/">Sarah Hansen</a>, Forbes Staff<a href="https://www.forbes.com/markets">, Markets</a>

Man self isolating at home

This Single Factor Could Force Another Coronavirus Shutdown, Goldman Sachs Says

Africa has many reasons to be optimistic; this year has seen
a raft of new elections, economies are growing in amid an uncertain economic
climate and new measures such as the African Continental Free Trade Agreement
promise new solutions to the age-old problem of Africa’s economic integration. 



The recent decision of US investment bank Goldman Sachs to
apply for a South Africa banking licence, and the effects of US and Chinese
e-commerce giants to develop footholds in African markets, are just two
examples in 2019 of how attractive the region has become for those with skill,
knowledge and patience. 



Much is made of Africa’s population being the youngest in the world. Undoubtedly, this poses challenges, most specifically, in terms of finding gainful employment and decent livelihoods for a growing number of people. 



READ MORE | <a rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="Creators Rather Than Consumers (opens in a new tab)" href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/technology/2019/08/13/creators-rather-than-consumers/" target="_blank">Creators Rather Than Consumers</a>



During my time at the World Economic Forum, my impression of
the continent’s youth has been overwhelmingly positive, a mixture of awe at the
entrepreneurial spirit and inspiration at the determination felt by younger
generations to overcome long-standing barriers and collaborate across cities,
countries and ethnic lines to forge a better future.



Add the fourth industrial revolution into the mix and the
picture starts to look interesting. Success in this new age of economic
development is by no means assured: barriers to entry can be considerable and
investment in new technologies – not just development but equally importantly
implementation – inevitably brings failure as well as success.&nbsp; 



While none of these risks must be discounted, the next phase of humanity’s growth and development will be built on entrepreneurial talent and this Africa has in rich abundance.



READ MORE | <a rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="Towards An Open World Economy (opens in a new tab)" href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2018/09/17/towards-and-open-world-economy/" target="_blank">Towards An Open World Economy</a>



Since its launch in 2007, M-Pesa, the mobile payments system developed initially for the Kenyan and Ugandan telecommunications market, has served as a symbol for African innovation and ability to leapfrog generations of technology. 



Twelve years on, the system is providing benefits to investors and consumers across the emerging world but it is by no means alone. This year’s billion-dollar listing of home-grown e-commerce giant Jumia is only the latest success in Africa’s burgeoning technology landscape.



With this in mind, the question I find myself asking more
and more these days is not ‘how do we identify Africa’s next entrepreneurial
superstars’, but ‘how do we help Africa’s entrepreneurial superstars scale up
and fulfil their potential?’



While private investors, corporate intrapreneurs, foundations, development agencies and governments have all played an active role in helping get the region’s best and brightest entrepreneurial talents, the priority now is to help this new generation of wealth creators and employers reach a critical mass of scale so they can compete across borders and employ the kinds of numbers that will help provide livelihoods for a growing workforce.



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">How do we do this? For one thing, it will require action on the part of government. There are a number of ways governments can improve the enabling environment just by drawing on existing best practices across the region. </blockquote>



Reforms such as cutting red tape and making it easier to start a business: too often, it takes weeks where it should be days or even hours. Other successful ‘quick win’ policy innovations include offering tax breaks and concessions on labor laws for businesses whose revenues or workforces are below a certain size. 



Shielding businesses from the harshest challenges of the open market during their formative years would be beneficial to governments in terms of value once they are able to stand on their own two feet.



Building a platform for Africa’s gazelles, high-growth
companies capable of sustaining high rates of year-on-year growth, will be a
key aim of the World Economic Forum on Africa 2019.



&nbsp;Africa’s future lies
in increased integration and interaction within its own borders as well as
overseas. 



Just as the gazelle is an iconic form on the African
landscape, Africa’s own tech gazelles need to define their own identity in the
fourth industrial revolution. 



– Elsie Kanza is Head of Africa at the World Economic Forum.

Tag: Goldman Sachs

FORBES AFRICA SOCIAL MEDIA

This Single Factor Could Force Another Coronavirus Shutdown, Goldman Sachs Says

It’s Time For Africa’s Gazelles To Shine