A new research paper from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology estimates that blocking out the middle seat on airplanes could cause the likelihood of passengers being infected with coronavirus to drop by nearly half, just as some airlines are starting to book flights to capacity again.



KEY FACTS



<ul><li>According to the MIT paper (which has not been peer reviewed) the chances of catching coronavirus from a nearby passenger on a full airplane when all coach seats are filled is about <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.02.20143826v2.full.pdf" target="_blank">1 in 4,300</a>.</li></ul>



<ul><li>However, those odds drop to 1 in 7,700 when all the middle seats on board are left empty, the paper states.</li></ul>



<ul><li>Taking into account a <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.02.20143826v2.full.pdf" target="_blank">1% mortality rate</a> according to the statistical model, the likelihood of dying from a coronavirus case contracted on a plane is far more likely than dying in a <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.02.20143826v2.full.pdf" target="_blank">plane crash</a>, which has odds of about 1 in 34 million, the paper stated. </li></ul>



<ul><li>In “Covid-19 Risk Among Airline Passengers: Should the Middle Seat Stay Empty?” the author of the study, Arnold Barnett, wrote that his analysis aims to be “<a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.02.20143826v2.full.pdf" target="_blank">a rough approximation</a>” of the risks involved in flying during the coronavirus pandemic.</li></ul>



<ul><li>“The airlines are setting their own policies but the airlines and the public should know about the <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/filling-middle-seats-nearly-doubles-airline-passenger-risk-of-catching-covid-19-says-mit-researcher/" target="_blank">risk implications</a> of their choices,&#8221; Barnett told ZDNet this week.</li></ul>



<ul><li>The paper comes just as more flight carriers, like <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/06/27/american-airlines-ditches-social-distancing-will-book-planes-at-full-capacity/#654a11ea3b9a">American Airlines</a>, begin booking flights to full capacity despite surges of the virus across the country. </li></ul>



KEY BACKGROUND



The coronavirus pandemic has been disastrous for the travel industry, and has especially hurt airlines. Major American carriers including American, Delta and United have asked employees to <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/07/08/united-airlines-warns-that-it-could-layoff-36000-employees/#1f5870d93afb">take buyouts</a> and early retirement, Forbes reported, in a bid to cut costs as the pandemic causes them to bleed cash. United Airlines warned this week that it could be forced to furlough <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/07/08/united-airlines-warns-that-it-could-layoff-36000-employees/#6a9425d73afb">36,000 jobs</a>, or nearly half of its American workers, starting in October if travel doesn’t pick up. In April, the airline estimated that in the first quarter it lost <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2020/04/20/united-airlines-first-quarter-loss/#36db1a0196ef">$2.1 billion</a> pre-tax, Forbes reported, and was losing <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2020/04/20/united-airlines-first-quarter-loss/#36db1a0196ef">$100 million</a> a day in the last half of March. Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun said in May he expects a major airline to go <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/isabeltogoh/2020/05/12/boeing-ceo-warns-a-major-airline-will-most-likely-go-out-of-business-this-year-because-of-coronavirus/#660d73342b4b">out of business</a> in 2020 as a result of pandemic pressure.



NEWS PEG



American Airlines announced two weeks ago it would begin <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/06/27/american-airlines-ditches-social-distancing-will-book-planes-at-full-capacity/#654a11ea3b9a">booking middle seats</a> again starting in July, although the carrier will allow passengers to switch from a full flight without any extra cost, Forbes reported. <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/06/27/american-airlines-ditches-social-distancing-will-book-planes-at-full-capacity/#370f46303b9a">United</a> is also selling tickets for middle seats. American Airlines took flak earlier this month when Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) tweeted a picture of his <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://twitter.com/SenJeffMerkley/status/1278782271986831360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1279139143117832192%7Ctwgr%5E&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wusa9.com%2Farticle%2Fnews%2Fverify%2Fverify-airplane-safety-coronavirus-major-airlines-policies%2F65-5872a38d-42fe-4940-be04-eb67de1fe0c3" target="_blank">crowded flight</a>. 



<figure class="wp-block-embed-twitter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">.<a href="https://twitter.com/AmericanAir?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AmericanAir</a>: how many Americans will die bc you fill middle seats, w/ your customers shoulder to shoulder, hour after hour. This is incredibly irresponsible. People eat &amp; drink on planes &amp; must take off masks to do so. No way you aren’t facilitating spread of COVID infections. <a href="https://t.co/PWG5macqgC">pic.twitter.com/PWG5macqgC</a>&mdash; Senator Jeff Merkley (@SenJeffMerkley) <a href="https://twitter.com/SenJeffMerkley/status/1278782271986831360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 2, 2020</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



WHAT TO WATCH



If airlines continue to extend their policy of keeping middle seats blocked off or if they’ll be forced to book to capacity to turn a profit. <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://twitter.com/SouthwestAir/status/1280932162854948866" target="_blank">Southwest</a> and <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://twitter.com/Delta/status/1278352078784671744" target="_blank">Delta</a> have both committed to keeping their middle <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://twitter.com/Delta/status/1278352078784671744" target="_blank">seats</a> blocked off until at least the end of September, while <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2020/06/26/airlines-tried-social-distancing-board-many-that-experiment-is-ending/" target="_blank">JetBlue</a> will do the same through July, according to the Washington Post.



&#8211; <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/">Carlie Porterfield</a>, Forbes Staff, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/business">Business</a>

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Leaving Airplane Middle Seats Empty Could Cut Coronavirus Risk Almost In Half, A Study Says

Billionaire entrepreneur&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/profile/richard-branson/#72d1a7ea6ff5">Sir Richard Branson</a>&nbsp;has been criticized by a U.K. politician for airline Virgin Atlantic’s request on Monday for staff to take eight weeks unpaid leave during the coronavirus pandemic.



Labour MP Kate Osborne, the second U.K. politician to be diagnosed with coronavirus, described Virgin Atlantic’s decision as “an absolute disgrace” on Twitter.



Author Liam Young tweeted, “Virgin Atlantic have 8,500 employees and Branson has asked them to take 8 weeks unpaid leave. It would cost £4.2 million to pay all of these employees £500 a week to cover this leave. In total that’s a cost of £34 million for 8 weeks.”



The implication appears to be that billionaire Richard Branson, whose net worth Forbes estimates $3.8 billion, could afford to cover this cost.



Virgin Atlantic confirmed in a statement Monday that it plans to reduce its schedule and prioritize routes based on customer demand. The airline predicts an 80% reduction in flights per day, and adds, “As a direct consequence we will be parking approximately 75% of our fleet by 26 March and at points in April will go up to 85%.” 



Virgin Atlantic describes the changes as “drastic measures” put in place to “ensure cash is preserved, costs are controlled, and the future of the airline is safeguarded.”



Adding, “Staff will be asked to take eight weeks unpaid leave over the next three months, with the cost spread over six months&#8217; salary, to drastically reduce costs without job losses.” The airline confirms its decision has received the support of unions BALPA and UNITE in agreeing to the unpaid leave.



 A Virgin Atlantic spokesperson said: “The aviation industry is facing unprecedented pressure. We are appealing to the [U.K] government for clear, decisive and unwavering support. Our industry needs emergency credit facilities to a value of £5-7.5 billion, to bolster confidence and to prevent credit card processors from withholding customer payments.” 



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bad Times For Branson</h3>



Branson’s business empire has been hit particularly hard by the coronavirus pandemic.



On March 14 the Virgin Voyages cruise ship operation decided to postpone the launch of its new Scarlet Lady cruise line. “The current global health crisis is understandably making many people rethink upcoming travel plans,” Virgin Voyages confirmed in a statement.



On March 5, British airline Flybe — which is part owned by Virgin Atlantic— collapsed after it succumbed to its financial woes and weakened demand because of the Covid-19 outbreak.



Following the announcement of Flybe’s collapse, Virgin Atlantic said: “Sadly, despite the efforts of all involved to turn the airline around, not least the people of Flybe, the impact of Covid-19 on Flybe’s trading means that the consortium can no longer commit to continued financial support.”



Flybe, which once was Europe’s largest independent regional carrier, narrowly escaped collapse in January, after being bought by Cyrus Capital, Virgin Atlantic and Stobart last year.



Virgin Galactic, Branson’s publicly traded space tourism arm, has seen its shares slump since its mid February high of $37.26 on the NYSE. Having lost another 10% of value as of 4:30 pm U.K. time on Monday, Virgin Galactic is priced at $13.30 and falling. Branson’s Virgin Investment Limited owns 47% of Virgin Galactic through an investment entity, Vieco. 



&#8211;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/daviddawkins/">David Dawkins</a>, Forbes Staff, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/worlds-billionaires">Billionaires</a>

Tag: Flights

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Leaving Airplane Middle Seats Empty Could Cut Coronavirus Risk Almost In Half, A Study Says

Bad Times For Billionaire Branson–Staff At Virgin Atlantic Asked To Take Unpaid Leave As Coronavirus Cripples Air Travel