South Africa is set to surpass carbon emission goals, but for the wrong reasons. Loadshedding and the subsequent impact on heavy industry have, ironically, proven to be a boon for the environment.



South Africa’s unexpected emissions victory is a silver lining in an otherwise dark cloud. South Africa has recently outperformed its United Nations&#8217; Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) emissions reduction targets. However, this victory is not the result of a concerted green initiative or a shift towards renewable energy. Instead, it is a byproduct of the country&#8217;s ongoing loadshedding crisis, a situation that has seen coal-fueled power plants and electricity-dependent heavy industries frequently offline.



The loadshedding crisis, a crippling issue for the nation, has hampered economic growth and caused widespread frustration. In a perverse twist, it has also led to a significant reduction in the country’s carbon emissions.



The year 2023 has been the darkest so far, with over 100 consecutive days of continuous scheduled power outages, at an estimated daily cost of $50 million to the economy. With an estimated 80% of the country’s power generation fleet still coal-reliant, it was forecast that South Africa would only begin to reduce its carbon emissions footprint after 2025, a goal that it is set to surpass at the current rate.



So significant have the electricity outages been that the country appears to be ahead of this target, said Crispian Olver, Executive Director of South Africa’s Presidential Climate Commission, in an interview with Bloomberg on Monday.



“The country may achieve its climate goals as per the NDCs without closing any coal stations thanks to loadshedding and poor plant output.”



While this bodes well for South Africa meeting its climate objectives, it has also been pivotal in securing international financing for the country’s Just Energy Transition plan, which provided $8.5 billion in 2021, the vast majority of which was to be invested in transitions toward renewable energy solutions such as wind and solar power.



However, Minister of Electricity Kgosientso Ramokgopa believes that it is possible to both extend the life of the existing coal power fleet of state-owned generation utility Eskom, while still keeping the country on track to meet its climate goals, a seemingly contradictory position.



“We are modeling the impact of emissions and cost implications, and we will decide whether to extend the life and by what period. But I want to emphasize that we will not renege on our NDCs, our decarbonization agenda, and net zero path by 2050,” said Ramokgopa during a media briefing last week.



However, energy analyst and Managing Director of EE Business Intelligence Chris Yelland believes that these goals are not in conflict. “Low economic growth and loadshedding have already led to a slow decline in electricity consumption,” he said, speaking to FORBES AFRICA. “If we are just running the coal-fired stations we have now…just to see us through the crisis of the next two or three years, that may be palatable to donor countries of the Just Energy Transition Partnership.”



However, Yelland believes both the immediate and most sustainable path forward is still for the country to aggressively pursue the development of renewable energy sources, but it requires the will from the government.



“There are very short-term options for renewable energy, particularly in the domestic, commercial, and agricultural space in particular,” continues Yelland. “But the government&#8217;s focus seems to be on the utility-scale projects, and those will take a minimum of two to three years to come onstream…And that’s not quick enough, we need solutions now.”

Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd. Power Stations as Outages Intensify

South Africa’s Unexpected Emissions Victory A Silver Lining In Otherwise Dark Cloud

Just in case you haven’t noticed – the personality of the top-end sports car has changed drastically in a few short years. Size does count… and the smaller the better.
Well that’s what the manufacturers tell us as virtually every new model emerges with decreased engine size but, miraculously, better top speed, acceleration, fuel consumption and emission figures.
And the clue is in those last two words. Environmental regulations have shepherded us into a sterile new world where normal aspiration is no longer the norm and turbocharging is de rigueur.
If you are suffering from displacement envy, you could still go for a Ferrari F12 TDF 6.3-liter V12 or even a Dodge Viper 8.4-liter V10. But, I fear, they are a dying breed.
And how can you logically argue in favor of cubic centimeters when one of the fastest production cars on the planet is the Tesla Model S P100D – an all-electric family four-door sedan!
The new Porsche 718 Cayman, and it’s virtually identical topless twin, the 718 Boxter, follow the genes of the new generation and are now turbo fours rather than flat sixes and are trimmed down to a mere two liters.
In a weird way it echoes the ethos of the man who founded the company back in 1931.
“In the beginning, I looked around and could not find the car I&#8217;d been dreaming of: a small, lightweight sports car that uses energy efficiently. So I decided to build it myself,” said the late Ferdinand Porsche.
But don’t confuse economy with performance – the new 718 will whisk you to 100km/h in under five seconds and the S (with a 2.5-liter engine) shaves off another half second.
Turbo lag is fast becoming a part of ancient history and, thanks to a crafty fellow called Dynamic Boost, the new models are practically as spontaneous as their predecessors.
The Helshoogte Pass in the Western Cape linking the winelands of Stellenbosch and Franschhoek provided a fine test of the retuned chassis for dynamic cornering and the more direct steering.
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What you may miss are the gutsy aural tones of old and the subliminal thrust of the bigger engine. But get over it; you are helping to save the planet in a vehicle that is technically superior in every way.
So now that performance across the spectrum is merging closer and you can no longer brag about your brutish motor, we can get to the real selling point – looks.
And that can be dangerous ground. How do you compare a Ferrari 488 with a Lamborghini Huracán, a McLaren 570S with a BMW i8?
The difference I see with Porsche design is that they retain a more understated, almost sculptured design throughout the range. And that includes the more “modestly” priced 718 Cayman.
Porsche assert that the 718 embodies the shapes and proportions of legendary mid-engined racing cars like the 550 Coupé , the 718 GTR Coupé and the 904 Carrera GTS, which is all rather romantic.
Yet the new Cayman certainly catches the eye with a front end that is wider and more muscular in appearance, the narrow front indicator lights winking above the enlarged air intakes, and completed by the newly designed bi-xenon headlights with integrated LED daytime running lights.
And the derrière, which really seemed to be unfinished before, gets a major makeover through an accent strip in shiny black with the Porsche badge emblazoned on it and very fancy see-through tail lights.
The interior is everything you would expect from Porsche with all the controls (apart from the hard-to-find hazard button) at your fingertips amidst a tasteful, if safe, blend of leather and metal.
Although the familiar environment has been upgraded with new elements, the instrument cluster could have been blessed with a stronger dose of new age technology. Like the Audi TTS Coupé which has emerged with what is claimed to be the technological benchmark and is certainly impressive.
The virtual instrument cluster is in the form of a high resolution LCD screen that switches between a classic view with round instruments, to a futuristic full-screen view at a touch on the multifunction steering wheel.
It seems that some marques have remained conservative when it comes to forsaking the classic dials and embracing modern virtual displays.
Hopefully Porsche will lead the way in developing the future sports car with their Strategy 2025. The aim is to blend the history and values of the brand with innovative technologies. And they state clearly that digitalization, connectivity and, of course, electromobility will play a major role.
Let’s not forget that Porsche is one of the most profitable car manufacturers per unit in the world and makes more money for Volkswagen than the VW brand itself. Although VW sell about 25 times more cars!
In 2015, Porsche deliveries were up 19% up on the previous year with revenue rising by 25% to $3.6 billion. And in a tough year for global automakers, Porsche managed to keep the Zuffenhausen flag flying high in 2016.
Driven by Ferry Porsche’s dream of the perfect sports car, the company follows a plan called the Porsche Principle – basically to get the most out of everything.
“From day one, we have strived to translate performance into speed – and success – in the most intelligent way possible. It’s no longer all about horsepower, but more ideas per horsepower. This principle originates on the racetrack and is embodied in every single one of our cars.”
So reads the website blurb. And it is the way you feel behind the wheel of every Porsche.

Defending The Cayman

I felt green to the core. The Vice-President of the United States (US), Al Gore, was coming to South Africa to deliver his An Inconvenient Truth address at Maropeng and I was going to introduce him to a packed audience.
But there was a slight challenge. Gore could only travel from the airport in a small convoy of hybrid vehicles.
A Japanese luxury vehicle manufacturer had recently brought out a range of stunning hybrid SUVs, with enviable fuel consumption and low emissions, and were keen to supply them for the trip to the Cradle of Humankind. But the reply from his office was quite prescriptive; he could only be seen in a hybrid sedan.
This was duly arranged and the Maropeng gathering was supercharged with Gore’s mission to save the planet and how we could make a difference.
The missing link is how did he return to OR Tambo that evening? Well… in a rather large helicopter. In some ways I turned from dark green to light green in a matter of minutes.
Make no bones about it, I’m not saying that we don’t need to preserve fossil fuels and cut down on all forms of pollution. I wouldn’t dare argue with the experts who have exposed holes in the ozone layer and correlate this with dwindling ice caps.
By its very definition, pollution has harmful, and even poisonous, effects and you will find it difficult to get an appointment with an ENT specialist in many of the areas around Africa where industry rules the airwaves.
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And when it comes to vehicle emmissions you can’t help but be totally shocked when the US Environmental Protection Agency calculates that the average passenger car spews out
4.7 metric tons of carbon dioxide a year!
So, for many of us, it was a like Tiger Woods moment when the Volkswagen (VW) scandal over rigged emissions tests broke and our minds went back to the ads for the Beetle comeback which showed flower power over two generations.
It is a gaffe that has denuded faith in VW and is likely to have long term affects on their market value, and possibly even the German economy. It is the biggest crisis in their 78-year history.
Media reports say the overall cost of the debacle could amount to $86 billion – that’s $30 billion more than the BP oil spill in 2010!
VW say that the defeat devices were fitted to around 11 million vehicles worldwide. But it seems not every owner will have to rush to get their cars refitted or reprogrammed. Volkswagen Group South Africa says that no action is required on the part of their customers or dealers.
Here is where things get complicated. According to VW Brand PR Manager Andile Dlamini, the irregularities reported overseas relate to a nitrogen oxide emmission standard known as Euro 5. In South Africa, the compliance standard is EU2.
So the VW and Audi diesel engines in question comply with South Africa’s regulations in relation to nitrogen oxide and, according to Dlamini, the software does not negatively affect the carbon dioxide values – which leaves me feeling that I should have concentrated harder in science class.
So any recall of cars around Africa will depend on that country’s specific emission standards.
Surprisingly, in terms of numbers, this won’t rate among the biggest recalls in history.
The automotive world is still reeling from the defective Takata airbags which can shoot out sharp metal shrapnel when deployed. Around 35 million vehicles may be affected in the US and an additional seven million have been recalled worldwide.
Nearly two dozen brands have been affected in this rather frightening scenario which has left some dealers disabling the airbags and affixing ‘Do Not Sit Here’ stickers to the dashboards as a temporary measure!
If we focus on a single manufacturer, then the recall record goes to Ford in the late seventies. It involved a failed safety catch which allowed all Ford automatics to slip from Park to Reverse with no warning. The safety defect was blamed for 6,000 accidents and 98 deaths. Repairs to 20 million vehicles and a host of law suits reportedly cost Ford $1.79 billion. A fortune back in the day!
It was a testing start for Mary Barra when she took the helm of the General Motors Company (GM) in the midst of a massive recall at the beginning of last year. Under the spotlight of becoming the first woman to head a major automobile manufacturer, she faced revelations about faulty ignition switches and pressure from investors to return more cash to investors.
Listed by FORBES as one of the Top 10 most powerful women in the world, Barra inherited the ‘new’ GM which was founded in 2009 after the trials and tribulations of bankruptcy and a Chapter 11 reorganization. And the leaner operation has been declaring profits since 2010 despite the costly recall and a dip in share prices.
GM sold over 180,000 vehicles in their Africa markets last year – which represents a 10% market share. The President and Managing Director of GM Sub-Saharan Africa, Ian Nicholls, says he is excited about the growth potential of the business.
“We are finalizing the details of our agreement with Isuzu to build higher volumes of vehicles in South Africa. The Isuzu range has a reputation for reliability and capability, and is engineered for local conditions,” says Nicholls.
The Chevrolet portfolio extends from that tiny Spark, through the Captiva, to the daunting Trailblazer. The updated Trailblazer is handily placed to take a slice out of the Fortuner market with an attractive and comfortable cabin, in grey and black trim, and the model I tested with the 2.8-liter Duramax turbodiesel engine has grunt to spare with a fairly stable fuel gauge – well a claimed 8.5l/100km.
Strangely it’s the infotainment system of the beast that impresses me the most. The Chevrolet MyLink setup, with rearview camera included, is the essence of simplicity and makes you wonder why so many German marques make choosing a radio station a life study.
But it’s Opel that is really turning heads and order books.
“The Opel brand is on the rise with sales volumes up more than 76 percent year to date, on the back of a product onslaught,” says Nicholls.
For me one of the surprise packages of the year is the tiny Opel Adam, available in funky guises of Jam and Glam, with a one-liter turbo engine that loves to canter. It’s even more appealing than a Fiat 500 and has more standard features than any luxury car I have tested.
Little wonder it is bagging international awards.
But despite these positive outlooks, GM and virtually all car manufacturers, many surviving as hybrids born of takeovers, must be nervous about further major recalls that could spell financial disaster.
And here’s what will make them even more wary. The British government is to start its own enquiry into car emissions, running new tests on engines from across the industry and comparing the results with on-the-road emissions.
These independent tests could even challenge the claimed fuel consumption figures which, in many cases, seem to have been calculated on some of the steep downhills of the Tour de France.
Accountability is going to be the name of the game.

Do You Recall?

Europe and America have surely made inroads when it comes to environment-friendly electric vehicles (EV), manufacturing and finding enough customers for them, but Africa is still lagging behind in this respect.
Electric cars, which help curb greenhouse gas emissions, have been introduced in Africa, but car manufacturers admit they are yet to see a major shift from petrol- and diesel-driven cars to green cars. Clynton Yon, Product Manager of car major Toyota in South Africa, says it’s simply due to a lack of interest from the market.
“Hybrid technology is not cheap but in Europe and the US, the financial rebates buyers receive from the government [on initial purchase and also when it comes to taxes for insurance and emissions, for example congestion tax] make it a far more viable proposition. There also appears to be reluctance on the part of South Africans to adopt a greener lifestyle if it’s going to involve a higher initial financial outlay,” says Yon.
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Electric cars are still fairly expensive, and with reference to local sales, admittedly, hybrids have not achieved the kind of retail numbers they have elsewhere. The most obvious reason for this is the financial rebates offered by first-world countries are not available in South Africa, according to Yon.
“That said, Toyota has made a concerted effort to make hybrid variants more accessible. The Yaris HSD for example is the most affordable hybrid on the market,” says Yon. The Yaris HSD costs R230,000 ($21,700).
Electric engines give electric cars instant torque, creating strong and smooth acceleration. These cars first appeared in the 1880s, and were popular in the 19th and 20th centuries, until advances in combustion technology and production of cheaper petrol vehicles led to a decline in the use of electric cars.
Since 2008, a renaissance in electric vehicle manufacturing has occurred due to advances in battery and power management technology, concerns about increasing oil prices and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
If as a continent, Africa were to catch up with markets such as Europe, a lot needs to be done to educate the consumer about the effects of global warming.
About 144,000 units of another green car entrant, the Nissan LEAF, have been sold around the world, a large percentage of those sales owing to Europe since its launch in December 2010. At the moment, the LEAF commands 33% of the EV passenger car market in Europe, it sold more than 5,600 more units in 2013 versus 2012, cementing its position as a best-selling 100% electric vehicle.
The success of the Nissan LEAF in Europe has been especially propelled by strong sales in Norway where it became the best-selling car at the end of January with 650 units.
Since its launch in South Africa in November last year, the LEAF has taken off well, according to Dudu Mwelase, General Manager of Corporate Communications at Nissan South Africa. About 20 Nissan LEAF cars were sold in the first three months, but Nissan expects to sell a 100 in the first year.
Mwelase says her company’s aim is to bring about as much EV ownership as possible.
“As mobility in Africa starts to increase, there will obviously be a move to introduce environmentally-friendly vehicles. We do not foresee a mass Nissan LEAF introduction on the continent at this stage.”
Customers see electric cars as an appendage of the ongoing endorsement of all things green. For example, Heleen Ball, one of South Africa’s first LEAF customers, says that even though she was not supportive of the idea when her husband first suggested it, the car now works very well with their green lifestyle. She uses the car two or three times a week.
Plans to bring the BMW electric models to South Africa are also in full swing. The first model, the BMW i3 is earmarked for March 2015. The i3 could have been here earlier but because demand was exceeding expectations in a number of key European markets, South Africa has had to wait.
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“To ensure an acceptable waiting period for all customers who have ordered the i3, we have decided to delay market launch in South Africa and a number of countries where the i3 is not yet on sale,” says Edward Makwana, Automotive Communications Manager of BMW, South Africa.
At this stage, these cars will only be available in South Africa.
“We currently have around 11,000 pre-orders worldwide and more than 100,000 test drive requests. Customer-demand and interest in test drives exceed current production capacity. Dealers worldwide report they could sell more BMW i3s if they had them. We are also seeing a growing interest from local customers,” says Makwana. It’s clearly a green signal for electric cars.

Eco-warriors  On The Road

South Africa, a country heavily dependent on fossil fuels for its energy generation, is ranked 13th out of the 21 countries on KPMG’s 2013 Green Tax Index. The country releases 559 million metric tons of greenhouse gas a year and this figure is steadily rising. At a climate change conference in Copenhagen in 2009, South Africa committed to cutting emissions by 34%, by 2020.
Managing greenhouse gas (GHG) production can be done using tax levies or incentives. The South African government is proposing a mixture of the two. The tax can either be levied on upstream emission, which some companies can mitigate by changing the way they produce; on direct measured emissions or the downstream final product. Irrespective of the way in which the tax is implemented, it will eventually be passed through to the end user. Making a more pollutant end product more expensive will hopefully result in an environmental incentive for friendlier production.
Environmental tax isn’t new. The price of new cars already includes a form of environmental tax, which is why the discussion here isn’t whether or not to implement environmental tax but rather how the taxes should be expanded.
South Africa will be the first African country to introduce carbon tax and the second BRICS nation, after India initiated a nation-wide tax on coal produced in and imported into the country. The initial rate will be R120 ($11.5)/ton of carbon-dioxide, with various levels of exemption increasing at 10% a year during the first phase between 2015 and 2020.
South Africa’s carbon tax is postponed until 2016, in this time government will further investigate the tax’s impact on growth, job creation and other economic implications. The announcement of the tax sparked growing concern that carbon taxation may hold South African companies back.
The proposed tax will hit Scope 1 GHG emitters the hardest. These are emissions from sources that are directly owned or controlled by an entity. Sectors will receive an initial 60% discount, an additional 10% for those that compete internationally, 10% for process emissions; there is also the option for trade in carbon credits – granting another 5 to 10% relief.
According to a Nedbank Group’s sustainability carbon specialist, Marco Lotz, one of the barriers to implementation of the carbon tax is the lack of knowledge on carbon footprinting by all the stakeholders. He mentions that other aspects that should be expanded are the capacity of the institutions that audit and manage the magnitude of information that will be received by government institutions, as well defining who owns the carbon offsets.
The annual emissions of public utility company Eskom are around 228 million metric tons a year. It contributes 75% of South Africa’s carbon footprint. With a possible guaranteed discount of around 60 to 70%, further relief will need to be argued for. Eskom has mentioned it will pass on the effects of the tax to the consumer. South African consumers have already suffered through an avalanche of price increases by the utility company. Since 2008, there have been approved increases of 20% each year. An 8% annual increase, which began in 2013, will continue until 2018.
There is currently a R0.04/kWh ($1=R10.4) environmental levy on electricity included in the price consumers pay. At this stage, it will be replaced by an equivalent amount of carbon tax, leaving the price of electricity initially unchanged, proceeded by a 10% increase on the R0.04 each year.
“The current proposal will have a significant financial impact on the already high cost base of producing steel, estimated to be R630 million ($60 million) per annum. This is based on a 70% exemption and our steel production of around 5 million tons,” says steel maker ArcelorMittal – one of the country’s top emitters.
The company says that existing technologies for manufacturing steel do not allow for more carbon efficient alternatives and that there are no new technologies available either.
The estimated revenue from the tax is set at R8 billion ($764 million). There is uncertainty as to where this money will go, although there is talk of it feeding into the general state coffers, therefore not directly assisting in decreasing greenhouse gas pollution.
Government needs to ensure that the standards set are realistic and enforceable. A combination of tax, environmental regulations and investment in renewable energy projects could be the answer the world is looking for.

Carbon Tax Needs To Be Realistic

I’ve driven a Lexus before, I know to expect the trademark luxury, refinement, comfort and the executive feel but the Lexus GS450h F-Sport is so much more&#8230; It’s a hybrid that’s super fast.
Lexus’ new baby is a hybrid car and the first of its kind I’d ever driven. It made for a good start. In one moment I could pose as a tough businessman who’s made it and has a howling V6 rear wheel drive executive sports saloon to prove it. In the next moment, and at the push of a button, I could be the world-peace advocate who hugs trees.
The car has four driving modes. EV mode is when only the battery is being used. The battery has to be sufficiently charged and this mode is ideal for driving at low speeds. It’s eerily silent but highly entertaining when you sneak up on people before honking. ECO mode is when the car is powered by a combination of the electric motor and the engine. It delivers decent performance with reduced fuel consumption and emissions. Sport and Sport+ modes transform the car’s throttle response and handling to give you a sharpened, engaging and, dare I say it, a fast car to drive.
The GS450h is driven by a V6 petrol engine that delivers 213kW of power but it also features an electric motor that is capable of delivering 147kW of power. However, don’t add these figures together to work out the combined power because it isn’t 360kW. These systems work seamlessly together to deliver a combined output of 252kW of power and that is all carried to the road through a CVT gearbox.
Hybrid cars are not new to the market and they are clearly becoming more popular as consumers look for a cleaner, greener drive. BMW has recently released its hybrid models and the 5 Series ActiveHybrid is in direct competition to the Lexus GS450h. BMW claims 6.7l/100km and Lexus claim 6.2l/100km, both of which are fantastic consumption figures for cars of this size. I managed to average an 8.8l/100km and that was on the combined cycle.
Let’s not forget that we are talking about a luxury sedan capable of seating five adults in a contemporary cabin with an oh-so-crisp Mark Levinson sound system. I particularly liked the simplified facia design that has been made possible by Lexus incorporating a huge multimedia unit into the dashboard. The 12.3-inch display is one of the best on the market and carries a lot of information, should you want it. Lexus has made use of a “mouse” type controller for the multimedia display and though it is placed in an easily reachable spot it isn’t user-friendly, especially when driving on uneven surfaces. The idea is good, but the system is way too sensitive and can be quite annoying.
Further experience of the interior of this car makes you realize the levels of craftsmanship and detail surrounding you. The electric-powered seats feature heating and cooling and has technology to only feed air to the seats that are actually occupied. (These guys take energy-saving seriously). I had no issues of space in the front and rear and the boot space has not been compromised even with the battery packs being packed in there.
It’s a car that will turn heads. Looking at it, you’ll appreciate the new wave of Lexus design. The angular “spindle” grille is apparent on all new Lexus models and not counting the LFA hypercar, the design suits this car best. It’s a good looking car with some aggression and some sophistication thrown in.
You’ll also notice the Lexus logo on the front and rear of the car is surrounded by a blue hue. The color indicates the hybrid version of the car. The F-sport version that I drove also wore 19” charcoal alloys that gave it a unique presence especially as the car I test drove was black.
Choosing a Lexus GS450h F-Sport would be an easy choice for me if I was in the market for this level of car. At $88,400 it’s competitively priced especially considering the fuel-saving and emissions saving this car offers. You do have the choice of diesel alternatives from other brands, but this car does everything you may need a diesel car for. Fuel-saving? check. Reduced emissions? Check. Entertaining drive? Check. It arguably has the last word in refinement, luxury and comfort too. It looks classy but has a flair of sportiness. The drive is whatever you want it to be—civilized should you choose, or tail-wagging fun. And isn’t that what technology should be about? Giving you power and freedom to choose when you’ll use that power. This car gives you everything; you just decide how and when let it really roar.
Recent research showed that South Africans are not in love with the Lexus brand as much as they are with the likes of VW; Audi; Mercedes Benz and BMW. A few months ago, I possibly would have been in that group of South Africans, but now, I am a big fan of the brand because I’ve had a taste of luxury as Lex

Tag: emissions

FORBES AFRICA SOCIAL MEDIA

South Africa’s Unexpected Emissions Victory A Silver Lining In Otherwise Dark Cloud

Defending The Cayman

Do You Recall?

Eco-warriors On The Road

Carbon Tax Needs To Be Realistic

I Spell Love L-E-X-U-S