South Africa’s agricultural industry body AgriSA will approach banks, agribusiness and government to raise 3 billion rand ($220 million) to help farmers hit by severe drought, its executive director said.



Farmers have faced dry conditions over most of the nation for the last year, even as they are still recovering from a disastrous El Nino-induced drought in 2015.



“We have basically reached a point now where we don’t have any more fat in the system. There is no buffer any more in the agricultural sector,” AgriSA boss Omri van Zyl told reporters.



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Van Zyl said the group will also speak to the government’s National Disaster Management agency to get access to the contingency reserves.



“We see this drought again as a national emergency because it is going to have an impact directly on consumer prices, it is going to have an impact on food affordability and it has an impact on the farmers on the land,” said van Zyl.



A survey of producers showed that 31,000 jobs and 7 billion rand ($510 million) in potential revenue were lost since January last year because of drought, AgriSA said.



White maize prices are just off a near two-year peak last week.



“The farmers didn’t get enough (income) to recuperate in 2016 so the grain sector is in a lot worse financial situation than it was. Our ability to absorb this current drought is under pressure,” Jannie de Villiers, head of producers body Grain SA, also told reporters at the briefing.



READ MORE | <a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/economy/2018/12/20/putting-land-to-good-use-food-security-in-our-backyards/">Putting land To Good Use: Food Security In Our Backyards</a>



In early estimates for the 2018/2019 season, farmers have planted around 95 percent of the country’s yellow maize, which is mainly used in animal feed, and between 70 to 80 percent of the white maize, pushing prices higher.



The white maize futures contract due in March traded up 2.76 percent to 3,088 rand on Friday, just under a near two-year high of 3,255 rand reached last week.



Tree waste could help fuel cars, says Swedish scientist



South Africa’s official Crop Estimates Committee, which in October estimated farmers would plant 2.448 million hectares of maize in the 2018/2019 season, is expected to release the preliminary area planted estimates on Jan. 29. -Reuters



-Tanisha Heiberg

Panoramic views over the Tankwa Karoo Desert with dramatic thunderclouds in the sky

South Africa Farmers Seek $220 Million in Drought Aid

Small, resilient agricultural solutions that will save the environment and feed generations to come.&nbsp;



The effective use of land remains one of the foremost solutions to poverty, and the methods used to fully benefit from farming are easily accessible and implementable.&nbsp; 



Thankfully,&nbsp; there are proven ecologically-sound farming methods that contribute to household food security even in harsh landscapes, and even through droughts, as this group of women in South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal province have shown 



Strong El Niño events worldwide perpetually cause severe crop failures across the agricultural spectrum. Yet, in Igwavuma inKwaZulu-Natal, while her neighbor’s fields lay barren, Rhoda Mvubu was still harvesting cowpeas, sorghum, sesame, peanuts and a variety of beans at the end of the 2016 summer; and sweet potatoes and pumpkins in the winter. 



In the dry, rocky hills of Tshaneni, Doris Myeni was still harvesting vegetables and greens from her home garden late into a drought,&nbsp;enabling her to provide adequately for her extended family of 15 throughout the summer holidays. And Corinne Mngomezulu still had a good stock of seed saved from her own crops, stored well to protect them from insects and decay, ensuring that she would be able to plant again when the rains came. 



All three women are part of a network of smallholder farmers in the north-eastern province of South Africa who are supported by a non-profit organization, Biowatch South Africa, to develop and implement agroecology practices on their plots. Along with about 250 other farmers, mainly women,they have improved the nutrition levels in their homes and produced enough for sale to neighbors and at markets, while increasing and maintaining the productivity and ecological sustainability of their farms. 



“Biowatch is looking at an agriculture that is resilient,and which doesn’t require expensive inputs or a lot of irrigation,” explains Biowatch director, Rose Williams. 



“The methods we use of working with the soil and retaining water has meant that there can be produce during the drought – whereas if you were in a situation where you were planting a monocrop which needed irrigation, you would have nothing.”



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="926" height="619" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/land3.png" alt="" class="wp-image-38262" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/land3.png 926w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/land3-300x201.png 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/land3-600x401.png 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/land3-768x513.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 926px) 100vw, 926px" /><figcaption>Mavis Nhleko, a smallholder&nbsp; agroecology farmer, at Emagengeni in Pongola. Picture: Biowatch South Africa</figcaption></figure>



With a large proportion of Africa’s food produced by smallholder farmers who operate with marginal resources, crop failure can be devastating. As climate stresses increase, it becomes especially astute to invest in knowledge and methods that ensure smallholder farms continue to be viable. 



The 2018 State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World report of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) reveals that undernourishment and severe food insecurity are on the rise in nearly all regions of the world. About one in nine people in the world is considered to be undernourished, with a fifth (21%) of Africa’s population affected. 



Although a number of complex factors influence food security, the report shows a correlation between the rise in the prevalence of undernourishment in the last three years and the rise in climate shocks such as droughts, floods, cyclones, and heat waves. It points to the 2015-2016 El Niño event as a key factor. 



Countries with high exposure to climate shocks have more than double the number of undernourished people than those without high exposure. Drought is an especially significant factor in increased undernourishment, with stunting shown to have higher prevalence in areas where declining food availability is linked to warmer and drier conditions. 



Other factors than climate are also at play. For example,middle-income countries experience less food insecurity than low-income countries that experience the same climate shocks. 



Countries that experience both climate shocks and conflict fare considerably worse than those without conflict. However, it’s worth pointing out that most countries experiencing climate-related food insecurity are not experiencing conflict. Predictably, the part of the world where climate shocks and stressors have the biggest impact on food security and malnutrition is Africa. 



“With climate change in this sub-region, droughts are more intense and they are longer, flash floods are more common, and one is seeing impacts that are really devastating,” says Williams, “And we are in a province which has very high rates of malnutrition – with elevated levels of stunting and high rates of diabetes.”



Stats SA reports that in 2016, about 22% of South African households had “inadequate or severely inadequate” access to food, and about 12% of households experienced hunger. 



Williams says, “In many ways, synthetic fertilisers and irrigation and hybrid crops can seem like a silver bullet – and you may get returns that are high for a few years – but it’s not resilient and it’s not sustainable. Fertilizers impact on soil fertility, and hybrid crops need a lot of water –and water is scarce in this region which means it has to be diverted from somewhere else. So if you’re looking at an earth that needs to be sustainable, this is not an option for the long-term.” 



<div class="wp-block-image"><figure class="aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="461" height="615" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/land5.png" alt="" class="wp-image-38263" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/land5.png 461w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/land5-300x400.png 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/land5-225x300.png 225w" sizes="(max-width: 461px) 100vw, 461px" /><figcaption> Biowatch director, Rose Williams. Picture: Biowatch South Africa</figcaption></figure></div>



“Within agroecology, there is a strong support for natural systems, and the ecology, water system, and soils are maintained,” she explains, “It’s something that is supportive of biodiversity, and it also has a low carbon footprint if you tie it with local markets.” 



As described in Biowatch’s recent report, Agroecology is best practice, agroecology is about applying a set of principles rather than specific farming methods. Biowatch partner farmers are required to compost,mulch, dig fertility beds, use grey water, and save traditional seed. There can be no use of commercial hybrids or synthetic fertilizers, pesticides,insecticides or herbicides. 



Farming methods vary based on terrain and depending on the individual objectives of different farmers. For example, what made Myeni’s farm successful in a moisture-deprived area was a combination of hip-deep trench gardens filled with material such as tin, bones, grass and compost that improved the fertility and water-retention of the soils, along with water-harvesting practices and solicitous use of grey water. 



For Mvubu in a higher-rainfall area, it was planting in shallow basins and intense inter-cropping that gave her good yields.In a single field, she interplants maize, beans, cowpeas, peanuts, mung beans, jugo beans, sesame, and sorghum – and in fact, she has three different varieties of traditional sorghum. 



Williams emphasizes crop diversity as an important aspect of agroecology&nbsp; – both for protecting the soil and for proper nutrition. “There’s a difference between having sufficient food and having sufficient nutritious food. You can have enough food to fill your stomach but it’s not going to be enough for the human body. One needs a diversity in diet. Part of our work in agroecology is in providing proper food.”



Partner farmers strengthen agroecology practices with their own tried and tested traditional practices. “There is a strong innovation element to agroecology,” explains Williams, “and that’s where we can really support farmers because we are part of initiatives where we are learning from other countries in southern Africa and what we learn from our partner farmer scan also be shared with others.” 



Saving traditional seed varieties for replanting is one of the most important aspects of maintaining agricultural diversity, resilience in crops, and good levels of household nutrition. 



Says Williams, “In agroecology, the farmers have control over their seeds. They grow sufficient crops for food and also for planting the next season.” With hybrid seed, the next generation often lacks vigour, and some seeds are patented, which means farmers have to buy new seed for each crop. Williams explains, “This is very different to traditional farmer varieties of seed where the vigour is maintained and the diversity is maintained and it’s a self-sustaining system.” 



Some farmers, like Mngomezulu, plant fields that are only for seed saving. As quoted in the recent Biowatch report, Mngomezulu says,“These seeds are very precious to me. I need this field to save them so that they don’t get lost. I inherited these seeds from older generations and I want people to see them and use them – they are for my grandchildren, for coming generations,and for other farmers.” 



As governments the world over strive to meet the Sustainable Development Goals, it might be worth taking a page from these smallholder farmers in remote rural areas who are able to feed their families nutritious food throughout the year.&nbsp;

land1

Putting land To Good Use: Food Security In Our Backyards

Climate change is going to have huge consequences all over the world,&nbsp;especially in Africa. Harvests will be affected, threatening agricultural outputs. This could hurt farmers and lead to greater food insecurity.



But there hasn’t been much discussion about what effects climate change will have in other areas – like in the continent’s small and medium business sector. This is a worrying oversight.



Our&nbsp;research, conducted in Zambia and Botswana, revealed that businesses activities faced major disruptions during the 2015/2016 El Niño event. This was a result of drought-related water supply disruption in Botswana’s capital Gaborone, and disruption to hydroelectricity supplies in Zambia’s capital Lusaka.



El Niño&nbsp;is one of the key drivers of variations in global climate conditions between different years. It recurs every two to seven years and it’s typically associated with reduced rainfall and drought conditions in southern Africa.



Reflecting this trend, the 2015/2016 El Niño was one of the&nbsp;strongest on record. It brought widespread drought conditions and heat waves to the region.



By impacting urban water and hydroelectricity supplies, this had major consequences for business activities in Gaborone and Lusaka, as our research shows. These cities’ experiences should serve as a warning for others across the continent, and systems should be put in place to protect particularly small businesses from the worst realities of a changing climate.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Under pressure</h4>



In Botswana, as lake levels in the Gaborone Dam dropped to&nbsp;historical lows, businesses in Gaborone experienced decreased water pressure. In some cases businesses were completely cut off from piped water supply.



Lack of water for food preparation, butchery, irrigation, laundry, cleaning and sanitation had dire consequences for businesses such as hotels and guesthouses, restaurants, food businesses and other service industries. Hairdressers and car washing enterprises, for instance, came to a standstill as they struggled to provide services to customers or to maintain hygiene standards.



In Zambia’s capital Lusaka, where hydropower accounts for&nbsp;94%&nbsp;of the country’s electricity generation capacity, low lake levels in Lake Kariba contributed to unprecedented electricity blackouts, often lasting for eight hours at a time.



In Lusaka, activities reliant on electricity such as manufacturing, processing and communications were interrupted as equipment was immobilised. Assets were lost because they couldn’t be reliably heated or refrigerated. In both cities, supply chains were disrupted.



<figure><iframe loading="lazy" width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Nu5pjijFFa4?wmode=transparent&amp;start=0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe><figcaption>A video explaining the authors’ findings.</figcaption></figure>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Infrastructure issues</h4>



Towards the end of 2016, as El Niño drew to a close, more than half of the 135 micro, small and medium enterprises we surveyed in Gaborone and Lusaka told us their profits would be lower than previous years. Almost a third believed that their business was at risk of closing down. Business owners said disruptions to water supply and power outages, in Gaborone and Lusaka respectively, were the greatest obstacles to them doing business.



The two cities’ experiences, alongside the widely reported “Day Zero” water situation in Cape Town, South Africa, should sound a warning for businesses elsewhere on the continent. Water shortages in Cape Town began during the El Niño, but extended into 2018 as drought conditions persisted.



Climate change events like droughts are only going to get worse – and urban centres where many small, medium and micro enterprises thrive will be in the eye of the storm. The 2015/2016 El Niño highlighted that even fairly moderate changes in rainfall can have major consequences for businesses in African cities.



More people are moving to cities, setting up businesses and connecting, often for the first time, to water and electricity grids. This increases demand and places pressure on existing water and energy infrastructure.



At the same time, a complex set of factors has limited the development of new infrastructure and the effective management of existing resources. This means cities are struggling to keep up with the increased demand.



These factors, which include under-investment in infrastructure, policy uncertainty, governance challenges and poor municipal service provision, exacerbated the effect of drought in Botswana, Zambia and South Africa.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Preparing for a new reality</h4>



So what can be done to address these realities?



First, action is needed across sub-Saharan Africa to increase understanding of the vulnerabilities in existing water, energy and urban infrastructure – alongside the effects of increasing urbanisation and a changing climate.



And, second, small and medium sized businesses, which are&nbsp;key drivers of economic growth across sub-Saharan Africa&nbsp;and provide many people with a livelihood, need more support from governments and policy makers to help them cope with disruption.



This should include better access to information about the timing and severity of anticipated disruption to water and electricity supplies, as well as support to invest in coping strategies such as alternative sources of energy.



<ul><li><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kate-elizabeth-gannon-601360">Kate Elizabeth Gannon:</a>&nbsp;Postdoctoral researcher, London School of Economics and Political Science</li></ul>



<ul><li><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/declan-conway-434384">Declan Conway:</a>&nbsp;Professorial Research Fellow, London School of Economics and Political Science</li></ul>



<ul><li>Patrick Curran, a policy analyst at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, also contributed to this article.</li></ul>

RC198DAA9370

Small Businesses In Africa Will Be On The Frontline Of Climate Change

Last year unleashed some catastrophic weather across the world. At the beginning of 2017, Australia experienced one of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-39175668" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hottest summers on record</a> in Sydney and Brisbane, followed by a killer <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/04/extreme-heat-warnings-issued-europe-temperatures-pass-40c" target="_blank" rel="noopener">summer heatwave</a> across southern Europe and <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/11/us/california-wildfires/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wildfires</a> triggered by heat in California.
The Atlantic hurricane season was particularly active, recording three mighty category 5 hurricanes – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/13/global-warming-made-hurricane-harvey-deadly-rains-three-times-more-likely-research-shows" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Harvey</a>, <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/specials/hurricane-irma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Irma</a> and <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/specials/weather/hurricane-maria" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Maria</a> – resulting in significant casualties. The cost of the damage across the American continent was in excess of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-42608161" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$260 billion</a>.
At the same time, the 2017 monsoon season brought considerable rains to the Indian subcontinent, and resulted in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/30/mumbai-paralysed-by-floods-as-india-and-region-hit-by-worst-monsoon-rains-in-years" target="_blank" rel="noopener">devastating floods</a> in parts of India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh (one of the most flood vulnerable countries in the world), causing more than 1,000 deaths.
At the end of 2017, we could look back at the statistics and see that globally it was the warmest <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/what-is-el-nino-la-nina" target="_blank" rel="noopener">non-El Nino</a> year on record. El-Nino is the warming part of the <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/what-is-el-nino-la-nina" target="_blank" rel="noopener">El-Nino Southern Oscillation</a> (ENSO) cycle which affects global ocean and atmospheric currents and can create powerful storms and hurricanes.
In a world that is getting warmer, what does that mean and what might 2018 hold for weather across the globe? Are we destined to see more and more of these “unusual” and catastrophic weather events which result in significant devastation? What effect will climate change have on our weather and will this become the new norm?
<h2>Looking at the facts</h2>
First, we need to untangle the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/noaa-n/climate/climate_weather.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">difference</a> between weather and climate change, something president Trump seems <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/28/politics/trump-climate-change-analysis/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">to confuse</a>. In a nutshell, the difference is time. Weather is the conditions in the atmosphere over a short period of time. Climate is how the atmosphere behaves over a longer period of time. When we talk about climate change, that generally means changes in long-term averages of daily levels of temperature and rainfall. So we may see a change in average or typical weather over a number of years, but we can still experience extremes in any one year.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/woman/2017/10/03/professor-saved-african-rainforest/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: The Professor Who Saved An African Rainforest</a>
Recently, scientists have used <a href="https://www.munichre.com/topics-online/en/2017/topics-geo/rapid-attribution" target="_blank" rel="noopener">robust event attribution</a> where natural or human influences on particular events are studied to understand the role <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/audience/forstudents/5-8/features/nasa-knows/what-is-climate-change-58.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change</a> may play in particular weather events. This can help support future regional contingency planning.
This also helps us to understand the role climate change has played in past events such as heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, or extreme flooding and some of their large-scale drivers such as ocean and atmospheric patterns of warming and cooling, like El-Nino.
Looking at the past there are many factors which control the onset, spread and eventual impact of a big weather event. But not all of these factors are climatic and many relate to things such as urbanisation, engineering interventions or land-use changes.
<h2>What the future looks like</h2>
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IPCC</a>), an international body set up to assess the science of climate change, we can continue to expect <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">an increase</a> in the average global temperature. That means we will be experiencing warmer years in the future.
But at the same time, we may see changes to the extremes, which could become more frequent in the case of high temperature or heavy rainfall, or less frequent in the case of extreme cold. This means that the distribution, occurrence and expected averages of our weather (for example, temperature and rain) throughout the year may change, resulting in warmer years on average with more extreme hot days, and fewer extreme cold days in the future.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2015/08/01/suspended-barbed-wire-impaled-car-part/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Suspended By Barbed Wire And Impaled On A Car Part During Flood</a>
This pattern has a direct link to such phenomena as heatwaves, which are caused by more extreme temperatures. The links to droughts or periods of extreme low flows in rivers are more complex. <a href="http://www.ipcc-data.org/guidelines/pages/gcm_guide.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global Circulation Models</a> (GCMs) – a collection of numerical models that provide a 3D analysis of global climate interactions such as atmosphere, oceans, ice and land – <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14196?utm_source=Daily+Carbon+Briefing&amp;utm_campaign=fe1e50b881-cb_daily&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_876aab4fd7-fe1e50b881-303473869" target="_blank" rel="noopener">predict</a> increases in temperatures for some regions, such as southern Europe.
In terms of tropical cyclones, the effects of climate change on these phenomena is an active area of research as the processes are complex. For example, the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/Clausius-Clapeyron-equation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Clausius-Clapeyron</a> relationship which can be related to the water vapour-carrying capacity of the atmosphere, may have an impact on the strength and intensity of such storms.
The relationship states that for every degree rise in temperature, the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases by 7%, so in a warming ocean, the air above the water has a much greater capacity to hold water and thus store more rain that can feed more powerful storms.
But sinking cold air from the upper atmosphere may prevent storms from rising in the first place. If this happens more frequently with climate change then we can expect fewer such storms. That means in the future there may be fewer tropical cyclones forming, but those that do will be stronger and more intense.
<h2>Wet, wet, wet</h2>
In a warming world, we can expect it to get wetter. The distribution of the rainfall throughout the year could change as we experience longer, drier spells, although when rain falls it may be in intense bursts. Recent <a href="https://research.ncl.ac.uk/media/sites/researchwebsites/convex/CONVEX_downpours.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">research</a> by Newcastle University analysed the results from finer scale GCMs climate projections and suggests we may expect more intense summer rainfall in the UK in future. <a href="http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/24125" target="_blank" rel="noopener">New climate projections</a> from GCMs are being prepared for the UK to help predict what the future climate may look like.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2017/04/01/africa-heating-not-good-way/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Africa Is Heating Up And Not In A Good Way</a>
Flooding from intense rainfall or river sources has many complex drivers which cause the damage in catchment areas. For example, land use changes (such as intensive farming practices or deforestation) and the degree of urbanisation both play a part in flood risk. Recent <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/9/2/103/htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">research</a> for the UK suggests that we will see an increase in the frequency of extreme river flooding.
So what can we expect for 2018? Already Australia is experiencing <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/07/world/australia/heat-wave.html?_r=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">extreme heat</a>, while the eastern seaboard of the US is suffering a <a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/1/3/16845048/winter-storm-2018-bomb-cyclone-blizzard-florida-new-york-boston-new-england" target="_blank" rel="noopener">severe cold spell</a>, and the west coast <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/11/us/southern-california-mudslides/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">devastating mudslides</a> that have killed 17 people. So far 2018 seems to be picking up right where 2017 left off.
Governments need to recognise and absorb that extreme weather across the globe is likely to become more common and start to adapt accordingly, rather than treat it as shocking one-off events. Otherwise we risk increasing loss of life and environmental damage in the future. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/lindsay-beevers-435129" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lindsay Beevers</a>, Professor/Chair Futures Forum, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/heriot-watt-university-947" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Heriot-Watt University</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

Tag: El Nino

FORBES AFRICA SOCIAL MEDIA

South Africa Farmers Seek $220 Million in Drought Aid

Putting land To Good Use: Food Security In Our Backyards

Small Businesses In Africa Will Be On The Frontline Of Climate Change

Will the weather get worse in 2018?