The Speaker of the Zambian National Assembly, Patrick Matibini, has <a href="http://www.enca.com/africa/zambias-parliament-suspendes-48-opposition-lawmakers" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">suspended 48 opposition legislators</a> for 30 days as a punishment for unauthorized absence from the parliament. Their offence? To have been missing for President Edgar Lungu’s state of the nation address in March.
The suspension of the MPs does not come as <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-need-to-talk-about-zambia-as-it-falls-from-grace-under-president-lungu-77520" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a great surprise</a>. Hardliners from the ruling Patriotic Front have been pushing for something along these lines for some time. The ruling party was quick to try and disassociate itself from the Speaker’s actions. But, as Zambian commentators have pointed out, the action fits into a broader web of measures designed to intimidate those who question the president’s authority.
The most significant was the arrest of opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema, who remains in jail on trumped up <a href="http://www.africanews.com/2017/05/20/zambia-s-political-climate-and-treason-trial-of-hichilema-worrying-eu-mps//" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">treason charges</a>.
While the latest development in Zambia’s growing political crisis doesn’t come as a shock, it will disappoint those who were hoping that Lungu would be persuaded to moderate his position. Instead, it appears that the decision by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to <a href="http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/06/11/pr17214-zambia-imf-staff-concludes-visit" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">go ahead with a bailout</a> package despite the government’s democratic failings has emboldened the president to pursue an authoritarian strategy.
As a result, a swift resolution to the current political standoff seems unlikely.
<h2>Roots of the crisis</h2>
For some time Zambia was considered to be one of the more competitive democracies in Africa. But a period of backsliding under Lungu has raised concerns that the country’s inclusive political culture is <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-need-to-talk-about-zambia-as-it-falls-from-grace-under-president-lungu-77520" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">under threat</a>. The current impasse stems from the controversial elections in 2016 when Lungu won a narrow victory that <a href="http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKCN10Q163" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">remains contested</a> by the opposition United Party for National Development.
Hichilema, the leader of the United Party for National Development (UPND), has stated that his party will not recognize the legitimacy of Lungu’s victory until its electoral petition against the results is heard in court. The initial petition was <a href="http://allafrica.com/view/group/main/main/id/00045643.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rejected by the Constitutional Court</a>. But its decision was made in a way that had all the hallmarks of a whitewash. The UPND subsequently appealed to the High Court. Hichilema’s decision to make his party’s recognition of the president conditional on the petition being heard was designed both as an act of defiance, and as a means to prevent the government from simply sweeping electoral complaints under the carpet.
Until the court case is resolved, the opposition is committed to publicly challenging the president’s mandate by doing things like <a href="https://diggers.news/guest-diggers/2017/06/14/the-wholesale-suspension-of-upnd-mps-legal-but-undemocratic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">boycotting his addresses to parliament</a>. In response, members of the ruling party have accused the United Party for National Development of disrespect and failing to recognize the government’s authority. It is this that appears to lie behind Hichilema’s arrest on treason charges.
<h2>Punishing parliamentarians</h2>
The suspension of UPND legislators needs to be understood against this increasingly authoritarian backdrop. It is one of a number of steps taken by those aligned to the government that are clearly designed to intimidate people who <a href="http://democracyinafrica.org/called-professor-nic-cheeseman-causes-zambia-controversy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">don’t fall into line</a>. Other strategies include public condemnation of the government’s critics and proposals to break up the influential Law Association of Zambia.
Efforts by the <a href="http://en.rfi.fr/africa/20170614-zambian-government-played-no-part-suspension-opposition-mps-says-spokesman" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">president’s spokesman</a> to disassociate the regime from the suspensions have been unpersuasive. The official line of the ruling party is that the speaker of parliament is an independent figure and that he made the decision on the basis of the official rules. It’s true that the speaker and the parliamentary committee on privileges, absences and support services have the right to reprimand legislators for being absent without permission.
Nonetheless the argument is disingenuous for two reasons. The speaker is known to be close to the ruling party, a fact that prompted Hichilema to <a href="https://diggers.news/guest-diggers/2017/06/14/the-wholesale-suspension-of-upnd-mps-legal-but-undemocratic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">call for his resignation</a> earlier this year. And the committee’s decisions are clearly driven by the Patriotic Front because it has more members from it than any other party.
The claim that the suspension was not government-led lacks credibility. This is clear from the fact that Patriotic Front MPs have been the most vocal in calling for action to be taken against boycotting UPND MPs.
<h2>IMF lifeline for Lungu</h2>
There are different perspectives on the crisis in Zambia. Some people invoke the country’ history of more open government to argue that Lungu will moderate his position once the government feels that the opposition has been placed on the back foot. Others identify a worrying authoritarian trajectory that began under the presidency of the late <a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2013/10/01/power-comes-fall/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Michael Sata</a>. They conclude that things are likely to get worse before they get better.
One of the factors that opposition leaders hoped might persuade President Lungu to release Hichilema and move discussions back from the police cell to the negotiating chamber was the government’s desperate need for an economic bail out. Following a period of bad luck and bad governance, Zambia faces a <a href="https://www.lusakatimes.com/2017/04/03/zambia-facing-debt-crisis-fundanga/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">debt crisis</a>. Without the assistance of international partners, the government is likely to go bankrupt. This would increase public dissatisfaction with the Patriotic Front and undermine Lungu’s hopes of securing a <a href="http://democracyinafrica.org/zambia-president-lungu-third-term/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">third term</a>.
But the willingness of the IMF to move towards the completion of a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-10/zambian-leader-sees-swift-subsidy-cuts-in-1-2-billion-imf-deal" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">$1.2 billion rescue package</a> suggests that authoritarian backsliding is no barrier to international economic assistance. In turn, IMF support appears to have emboldened the government to continue its efforts to intimidate its opponents.
IMF officials, of course, will point out that they are not supposed to take political conditions into account and that their aim is to create a stronger economy that will benefit all Zambians. This may be true, but the reality is that by saving the Lungu government financially the IMF is also aiding it politically. Whatever its motivation, the agreement will be interpreted by many on the ground as tacit support for the Patriotic Front regime, strengthening Lungu’s increasingly authoritarian position. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nic-cheeseman-180800" target="_blank" rel="author noopener noreferrer">Nic Cheeseman</a>, Professor of Democracy, University of Birmingham
Originally published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Conversation</a>
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Zambia slides towards authoritarianism as IMF props up government

Elections in Africa are not child’s play; if you run out of luck, you can pay with your life. This was true of Zambia’s Mapenzi Chibulu, an 18-year-old female opposition activist shot dead on the streets of Lusaka by police in political turmoil.
On July 9, in broad daylight, and a month before she was expected to join millions in voting for the next president, Chibulu lost her life. It forced the electoral body, the Electoral Commission of Zambia, to suspend campaigns for 10 days in Zambia’s capital.
As if the political turmoil was not enough, the copper producing country has done little to allay fears of investors, bearing hard currency, over a country that has struggled to diversify from mining.
The country, celebrating 52 years this year, is in turmoil as incumbent President Edgar Lungu, who has been in power for a year, is battling to stop opposition leader, Hichilema Hakainde, from wresting power. Lungu came in after President Michael Sata died in office. Hakainde is a businessman and a British-educated economist.
The two will face each other in a watershed election of August 11. Whatever the outcome, this election will be contested; whoever loses will claim electoral fraud after polls.
“For 50 years our nation has lived with peace, stability and freedom. There is no place for this type of violence in our society. I take a firm stance against any sort of violence in our democracy,” Lungu said in a statement.
To his opponents, his words ring hollow in the light of Chibulu’s death.
Political analysts say the electoral landscape, in the run up to the polls, has been punctuated by skirmishes between the ruling Patriotic Front and the opposition United Party for National Development.
“This comes as no surprise and we have been warning for months now that the political climate in Zambia was not conducive to free and fair elections and that the country risked losing its democratic reputation if authorities allowed this to continue,” says Gary van Staden, Senior Political Analyst at NKC African Economists.
“While the decision to suspend campaigning is a negative development, it at least provides some breathing space for authorities and political parties to put in place concrete measures to help take off the pressure that has been building over months now and threatens the credibility of the poll. The suspension of campaigning is the lesser of two evils but it remains an evil and any attempt to extend the suspensions will be unacceptable.”
While the election will pass, the challenges facing Zambia will not. Economists warn that politicians should not make it worse.
Herryman Moono, an economist from Economics Association of Zambia, says the unfolding political developments, marred by violence and government pressure on private media, has created political tension.
“The excessive use of force by the Zambia police, who are on record of cancelling opposition party rallies and recently the use of live ammunition leading to the killing of an opposition party supporter, while injuring others, is raising concerns about the security of the nation as we approach elections,” says Moono.
“These developments are creating anxiety among the local and international community. Should these continue, Zambia will slowly be perceived as a risky investment destination which has a strong and negative bearing on foreign direct investment in the short to medium term. An elevated risk profile arising from electoral violence can easily lead to subdued economic growth as investments – both local and international – dwindle.”
Moono adds that, beyond a damaged reputation and being a low grade investment destination, the Zambian currency would, in the midst of an electoral crisis, negatively affect the Zambian Kwacha which has been extremely volatile and poor-performing the past few years.
Thato Motaung, Associate Executive Director at the African Democratic Institute, says, to date, Zambia has experienced fairly peaceful and successful transitions of power; showing a promising trait of embracing the democratic will of the people.
“The key issues facing the build-up to Zambia’s election are mostly rooted in this insecurity. There is a large vocal citizenry, vigorous independent media, paired with a well-organized opposition; a combination that leaders often perceive as threatening. Hence we see the iron fist emerge in raids, police brutality and censorship in an attempt to pacify the perceived threat.”
On August 11, we will know who will take the reins.

Tag: Edgar Lungu

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Zambia slides towards authoritarianism as IMF props up government

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