TOPLINE Dozens of Facebook employees staged a virtual walkout on Monday, in an escalation of protests against CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s failure to act on President Trump’s “When the looting starts, the shooting starts” post.



KEY FACTS



<ul><li>Staff members flocked to rival platform Twitter for a second day, to denounce Zuckerberg’s “do-nothing” approach to Trump’s post that threatened violence toward George Floyd protesters.</li></ul>



<ul><li>One employee, Owen Anderson, announced in a&nbsp;<a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://twitter.com/OwenResistor/status/1267568422327447552?s=20" target="_blank">tweet</a>&nbsp;that he had quit the company.</li></ul>



<ul><li>“To be clear, this was in the works for a while.&nbsp;But after last week, I am happy to no longer support policies and values I vehemently disagree with,” he wrote.</li></ul>



<ul><li>Employees have also been circulating messages internally, with one staffer writing on a staff message board: “The hateful rhetoric advocating violence against black demonstrators by the U.S. President does not warrant defense under the guise of freedom of expression,” the&nbsp;New York Times&nbsp;<a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/01/technology/facebook-employee-protest-trump.html" target="_blank">reported</a>. Others urged Zuckerberg to take down Trump’s post.</li></ul>



<ul><li>Facebook spokesman Andy Stone said employees will not have the protest days taken out of their vacation allowance, Reuters&nbsp;<a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-facebook-trump-employee-criticism/facebook-staffers-walk-out-saying-trumps-posts-should-be-reined-in-idUKKBN2382D0" target="_blank">reported</a>.</li></ul>



<ul><li>The walkout, staged virtually as all Facebook employees are working remotely in the pandemic,was triggered by Facebook&#8217;s refusal to take action over Trump&#8217;s inflammatory posts, while Twitter took the unprecedented step of flagging his comment for “glorifying violence.”</li></ul>



<ul><li>Zuckerberg has reportedly pushed the company’s weekly employee Q &amp; A session from Friday to Tuesday.</li></ul>



CRUCIAL COMMENT



In a joint statement, a number of the virtual demonstrators tweeted: “Facebook’s recent decision to not act on posts that incite violence ignores other options to keep our community safe. We implore the Facebook leadership to #TakeAction.”



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https://twitter.com/dan_abramov/status/1267544361929256966?s=20
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TANGENT



Online therapy company Talkspace has cut ties with Facebook over the issue. CEO Oren Frank&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/orenfrank/status/1267504648275005440?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">tweeted</a>&nbsp;on Monday: “We at Talkspace discontinued our partnership discussions with Facebook today. We will not support a platform that incites violence, racism, and lies. #BlackLivesMatter.”



NEWS PEG



President Trump has driven a wedge between Facebook staff and the social network&#8217;s founder. Facebook&#8217;s no-leak culture, and the largely united front between management and staff had largely weathered previous storms in its march to &#8220;connect the world.” That accord was shattered in a flood of tweets condemning Zuckerberg&#8217;s decision to keep Trump&#8217;s post on the site. Before the walkout, several senior employees blasted Zuckerberg’s defence of keeping the post on the site. Design manager Jason Stirman tweeted on Monday: “I‘m a FB employee that completely disagrees with Mark’s decision to do nothing about Trump’s recent posts, which clearly incite violence. I’m not alone inside of FB. There isn’t a neutral position on racism.”



In a post on Monday, Zuckerberg said Trump’s post and use of the historically racially charged phrase did not breach Facebook policies. “Our position is that we should enable as much expression as possible unless it will cause imminent risk of specific harms or dangers spelled out in clear policies,” he&nbsp;<a href="https://www.facebook.com/zuck/posts/10111961824369871" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a>.



KEY BACKGROUND



The death of George Floyd after white policeman Derek Chauvin knelt on his neck for nearly nine minutes last Monday sparked outrage across the U.S. and subsequent protests in more than 75 cities. <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/isabeltogoh/2020/06/01/corporate-donations-tracker-here-are-the-companies-giving-millions-to-anti-racism-efforts/#701eab0037dc">Companies</a>, facing public pressure to speak out, have released statements pledging support to the black community, including Amazon, Netflix, Twitter and Peloton. On Monday, Zuckerberg<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/isabeltogoh/2020/06/01/facebook-pledges-10-million-to-racial-justice-campaigns/#2c2f71374250"> announced</a> Facebook is donating $10 million to groups campaigning for racial justice.



&#8211;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/isabeltogoh/">Isabel Togoh</a>, Forbes Staff, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/business">Business</a>

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Facebook Employees Stage Virtual Revolt Against Zuckerberg’s Inaction On Trump’s ‘Shooting’ Post

President Donald Trump’s <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattperez/2020/04/14/president-trump-putting-a-hold-on-funding-to-the-world-health-organization/#fb6a30f63ee6">announcement</a> that the U.S.—the largest sponsor of the World Health Organization—will halt payments to the body in the midst of a pandemic because of its “mismanagement” of the coronavirus crisis has been slammed by the U.N., global leaders and Bill Gates as “dangerous”. 



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">KEY FACTS</h2>



<ul><li>Trump <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattperez/2020/04/14/president-trump-putting-a-hold-on-funding-to-the-world-health-organization/#4964eb3d63ee">announced</a> he would hold payments in the midst of the coronavirus crisis, while a “review” is carried out to assess what he said was the WHO “severely mismanaging and covering up the spread of the coronavirus.”</li></ul>



<ul><li>In response, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2020-04-14/statement-the-secretary-general-the-world-health-organization" target="_blank">statement</a> that now is “not the time to reduce the resources for the operations of the World Health Organization or any other humanitarian organization in the fight against the virus.&#8221;</li></ul>



<ul><li>Microsoft founder Bill Gates, whose philanthropic Gates Foundation is one of the WHO’s <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.who.int/westernpacific/about/partnerships/donors" target="_blank">biggest</a> voluntary donors, <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://twitter.com/BillGates/status/1250292126643941376?s=20" target="_blank">criticised</a> the move as being “as dangerous as its sounds…the world needs WHO now more than ever.”</li></ul>



<ul><li>House speaker Nancy Pelosi blamed Trump “<a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.speaker.gov/newsroom/41420-0" target="_blank">ignoring warnings</a>” about the pandemic for causing “unnecessary deaths.”</li></ul>



<ul><li>She tweeted: “Now more than ever, we need the truth. And the truth is that Donald Trump dismantled the infrastructure handed to him which was meant to plan for and overcome a pandemic, resulting in unnecessary deaths and economic disaster.”</li></ul>



<ul><li>World leaders have urged Trump to rethink the decision, with China calling for the U.S. to fulfill its obligations, Germany and New Zealand calling for unity, while Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the WHO was not immune from criticism.</li></ul>



<figure class="wp-block-embed-twitter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Halting funding for the World Health Organization during a world health crisis is as dangerous as it sounds. Their work is slowing the spread of COVID-19 and if that work is stopped no other organization can replace them. The world needs <a href="https://twitter.com/WHO?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@WHO</a> now more than ever.&mdash; Bill Gates (@BillGates) <a href="https://twitter.com/BillGates/status/1250292126643941376?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 15, 2020</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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Additional info: Trump’s decision comes as nearly 2 million people to date have contracted the coronavirus, 600,000 of them in the U.S., while 126,000 people have died.



Crucial comment: Guterres added: &#8220;Now is the time for unity and for the international community to work together in solidarity to stop this virus and its shattering consequences.&#8221;&nbsp;



The Geneva-headquartered body is the part of the U.N. in charge of global public health and has coordinated the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic.&nbsp;



Big number: $400 million. That’s how much the U.S. contributed to the WHO budget in 2018-2019, the BBC <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52289056" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">reports</a>. The U.S. makes up about 15% of payments to the WHO and is the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/04/08/which-countries-are-the-biggest-financial-contributors-to-the-world-health-organization-infographic/#57d07d0f494c">largest</a> financial contributor. The WHO is funded through membership payments from its 194 member states, as well as voluntary contributions.



Key background: Trump has threatened to pull out from funding the WHO in recent weeks, despite the U.S. becoming the centre of the global pandemic with the most cases and deaths. Trump accuses the body of being China-centric, declaring a pandemic late, and “opposing travel restrictions to China,” he said on Tuesday. But the WHO has also suggested that the U.S. largely failed to acknowledge the severity of the disease and its potential. The tension between the U.S. and the WHO is just one example of the struggle to implement a global response to the pandemic as individual states grapple with it in their own, unique and sometimes contradictory ways.



Tangent: Donald Trump is not the first U.S. President to defund a U.N. body but this tactic of withholding funds, or withdrawal, has become a hallmark of his administration. The U.S. will cease to be a member of the Paris Climate Agreement this year after Trump formally pulled the U.S. out in 2019, and he has also pulled out of the Iran Nuclear Deal and the UN Human Rights Council, among other agreements.



&#8211;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/isabeltogoh/">Isabel Togoh</a>, Forbes Staff, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/business">Business</a>

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‘Dangerous As It Sounds’: Bill Gates, World Leaders And U.N. Condemn Trump’s Decision To Halt WHO Funding

Topline:&nbsp;U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who is leading the Trump administration’s economic response to the coronavirus, said on Wednesday that a large stimulus package is unlikely to get rolled out this week, though he confirmed that the government was taking steps to help small businesses and workers, as well as provide federal aid to industries hard hit by the outbreak.



<ul><li>“The president very much wants to consider a stimulus bill, whether it is through a payroll tax or otherwise,” Mnuchin said during a House Appropriations subcommittee hearing on Wednesday. “We realize that may not get done this week, so we want to get done what we can do this week and we will come back.”</li><li>With Congress set to go into week-long recess on Thursday, lawmakers are scrambling to implement some measures of economic relief—since a larger stimulus package will likely require more time to win bipartisan support.</li><li>The Treasury Secretary, who has been meeting with top industry officials and lawmakers to coordinate a response, said that the government’s first priority is helping small businesses and employees to mitigate the economic pain inflicted by the coronavirus.</li><li>Mnuchin also confirmed an&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-treasury-likely-to-push-back-april-15-tax-filing-deadline-sources-11583897351?mod=hp_lead_pos6&amp;mod=article_inline" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">earlier report</a>&nbsp;that the administration will push back the April 15 tax filing deadline, which could add some $200 billion of liquidity to the economy—extending the deadline would effectively act as a short-term loan to consumers and businesses.</li><li>“For small- and medium-size businesses, we think it’s appropriate for the government to pick up the costs,” he&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/mnuchin-urges-congress-to-pass-stimulus-to-counter-coronavirus-impact-11583941954" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a>, while also adding that the situation is “a little bit like a hurricane… we need to cover these outside-of-normal expenses.”</li><li>The administration is also considering&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/mnuchin-urges-congress-to-pass-stimulus-to-counter-coronavirus-impact-11583941954" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">loan guarantees</a>&nbsp;to different industries affected by the outbreak, including airlines, hotels, and cruise operators—as well as relief for U.S. shale companies hit hard by the ongoing oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, though Mnuchin insisted that “these are not bailouts.”</li><li>Meanwhile, House Democrats plan to introduce a bill today on paid sick leave, unemployment insurance, food stamps and free coronavirus testing—with plans to vote on the legislation Thursday, before Congress goes into recess, the&nbsp;Wall Street Journal&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/house-democrats-to-unveil-coronavirus-response-measures-11583930749?mod=article_inline&amp;mod=article_inline" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">reports</a>.</li></ul>



Crucial quote:&nbsp;“As I’ve said before, this is not a multi-year issue,” Mnuchin&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/03/10/mnuchin-says-theres-bipartisan-interest-in-spending-deal.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">told reporters</a>&nbsp;on Wednesday. “This is an issue that certain industries are going to be significantly impacted by and the President is very committed to make sure that we have the economic response appropriate for this economy.”



Key background:&nbsp;Nervous investors have anxiously been awaiting further details on the administration’s economic response to the fallout from the coronavirus since Trump promised “major” stimulus measures earlier this week. The stock market has seen&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/03/11/another-wild-day-on-wall-street-stocks-fall-as-investors-await-economic-response-to-coronavirus/#137e54a916d1">wild trading and volatility</a>&nbsp;in recent sessions, as coronavirus starts to have a bigger impact on U.S. businesses and economic activity. On Monday, stocks underwent a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahhansen/2020/03/09/stock-market-bloodbath-sp-dow-nasdaq-all-down-more-than-7-in-worst-drop-since-2008/#2b76a4d23041">historic sell-off</a>—where the Dow and S&amp;P fell almost 8% in their worst day since 2008. Both indexes&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/03/10/stocks-rally-dow-gains-more-than-1100-points-after-trump-promises-economic-response-to-coronavirus-fallout/">rose almost 5%</a>&nbsp;on Tuesday amid news of potential economic stimulus from the Trump administration, but&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/03/11/another-wild-day-on-wall-street-stocks-fall-as-investors-await-economic-response-to-coronavirus/#137e54a916d1">fell again on Wednesday</a>&nbsp;following a lack of specific details and unclear timeline for the government’s response. Stocks accelerated their losses later in the day after the WHO finally declared coronavirus a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/03/11/world-health-organization-declares-coronavirus-a-global-pandemic/">global “pandemic.”</a>&nbsp;The Dow has now officially entered bear market territory, down 20% off its record highs, after falling almost 1,600 points—or 5.8%—on Wednesday. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq both lost 5.2% and 4.9%, respectively.



Tangent:&nbsp;“We expect to pass bipartisan legislation very quickly—that&#8217;s the President’s number one priority,” Mnuchin&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/03/10/mnuchin-says-theres-bipartisan-interest-in-spending-deal.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a>&nbsp;on Wednesday. “He [Trump] is also focused on a larger stimulus package, looking at a payroll tax cut and other alternatives as well.” The Treasury Secretary also mentioned that he had a “productive meeting” with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, as the two continue with ongoing “discussions about various different policies” to respond to the coronavirus.



What to watch for: Trump will be making a statement later today, after meeting with top industry executives. 



&#8211;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/">Sergei Klebnikov</a>, Forbes Staff, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/markets">Markets</a>

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Here’s Everything We Know About The Trump Administration’s Economic Response To Coronavirus

Yvon Chouinard, billionaire founder of outdoor apparel firm Patagonia, has traditionally shied away from politics. But things have changed for the rock-climbing, fly-fishing outdoorsman since Donald Trump moved into the Oval Office.



On Wednesday, Patagonia announced it has an additional $10 million in profits on its books for 2018 as a result of Trump’s “irresponsible tax cut” last year, which lowered the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. 



Instead of investing the additional dollars back into its business, Patagonia said it would give $10 million to grassroot groups fighting climate change, including organizations that work in regenerative organic agriculture to help reverse global warming.



“Our government continues to ignore the seriousness and causes of the climate crisis,” Chouniard said in a statement. “It’s pure evil.”



Chouinard laid out his prescription for the U.S: “We need an agriculture system that supports small family farms and ranches, not one that rewards chemical companies intent on destroying our planet and poisoning our food. And we need to protect our public lands and waters because they are all we have left.”



Patagonia, citing news reports, claims the oil and gas industry have been the biggest benefactors of the corporate tax cut, with billions added to its bottom line. 



Meanwhile, the U.S. Global Change Research Program released its fourth National Climate Assessment on November 23, which pointed to the already “frequent and intense extreme weather and climate-related events” as harbingers of an even more tumultuous future.



“The timing of this tax cut couldn’t have been worse,” Patagonia’s statement asserts.



This bold stance comes one year after Chouinard first declared his opposition to Trump’s decision to reduce the size of Bear Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monuments, two Utah land areas that became federally protected under the Obama and Clinton administrations, respectively. 



In response, Chouinard blacked out Patagonia’s homepage online and replaced it with a simple message: “The President Stole Your Land.”



 If Vaccine Rates Keep Falling, These Diseases Could Make A Comeback The billionaire founder—Forbes estimates his net worth at $1.5 billion—then went on CNN to announce his plans to take Trump to court. 



“I’m going to sue him,” he said at the time. “It seems the only thing this administration understands is lawsuits.” The Trump administration tried to get the case moved to Utah courts, but a judge ruled in September that the case will have to be heard in a federal court in the nation’s capital. The case is still ongoing.



Taking a vocal and public stand against Trump’s policies has not hurt Patagonia’s business. In fact, it’s likely that it has only helped. “Any time that we do something good for the environment, we make more money,” Patagonia CEO Rose Marcario told students at UC Berkeley in April 2017.



But the company mission for environmental conservation and fighting climate change has been around long before Trump. Patagonia has been funding environmental nonprofits since 1985, giving a total of $100 million to such causes. Chouinard also in 2002 cofounded 1% for the Planet, a pledge for businesses to donate 1% of sales to sustainability-oriented nonprofits. To date, the pledge has brought $175 million to environmental and conservation efforts.



Chouinard, now 80 years old, is no longer a part of day-to-day operations for Patagonia, but he shows no signs of slowing down in the great outdoors. Asked on his whereabouts over the past summer, a representative told Forbes, “He is off the grid, taking a well-deserved fishing break.” 



-Angel Au-Yeung; Forbes Staff

Tom Brokaw & 1% For The Planet Fete Major Environmental Accomplishments

Patagonia’s Billionaire To Give Away Millions His Company Saved From Trump’s Tax Cuts To Save The Planet

From the rapprochement between North and South Korea at the Winter Olympics in January to December’s frantic news agenda, 2018 has had no shortage of surprises. Below are my key picks for the defining moments of the year. 



Elon Musk, Mars, and a roller coaster year for billionaires



On Feb. 6, Elon Musk’s Falcon Heavy rocket&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-apps-space-commentary/commentary-spacex-launch-opens-new-frontier-in-space-commerce-idUSKBN1FQ38W">blasted into space</a>&nbsp;from Florida and sent a cherry-red Tesla roadster hurtling toward Mars. It was a powerful statement about the influence and ambition of a new generation of tech billionaires.



Overall, however, 2018 would be a rough year for the group, and Musk was no exception. By July, he was&nbsp;<a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-ceo/tesla-shares-fall-after-ceo-musk-abuses-british-caver-idUKKBN1K62H7">embroiled in a high-profile spat</a>&nbsp;with a British cave rescue diver over a miniature submarine he had hoped would help rescue 12 boys trapped underground in Thailand, just one of a series of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/aug/19/elon-musk-tesla-timeline-difficult-painful-year">increasingly negative headlines</a>.



Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg – once touted as a potential U.S. presidential candidate – had scarcely a better year, his firm plagued by its own stream of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.recode.net/2018/11/15/18097064/facebook-political-reaction-new-york-times-capitol-hill">scandals and political headwinds</a>.



Google, whose chief executive Sundar Pichai became the latest tech chief&nbsp;<a href="https://www.recode.net/2018/12/11/18134984/live-google-ceo-congress-hearing-china-testimony-house-judiciary-committee-censored-search">summoned before Congress</a>, faces a mutiny from some workers on multiple topics, including his dealings with the U.S. and Chinese governments. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/14/jeff-bezos-low-income-people-pay-amazon-workers-better">faces mounting criticism</a>&nbsp;over working conditions and low tax payments.



Yet none of this looks set to stop tech firms from continuing to radically disrupt the world – indeed, many of their founders appear to believe their mission is to do so. Expect these battles to grow in 2019, particularly if new technology such as artificial intelligence and driverless cars accelerate change.



Trump fires advisers, tightens his grip



One billionaire learning his way around the political system in 2018 was U.S. President Donald Trump. After reports of growing frustration with some of his most senior officials, March saw him fire Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster. Both had been viewed as moderating influences on Trump, with successors Mike Pompeo and John Bolton&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-apps-bolton-commentary/commentary-with-bolton-trump-shakes-off-generals-restraints-idUSKBN1GZ2W4">perceived as less prone</a>&nbsp;to questioning him.



<a href="https://uk.reuters.com/news/picture/john-kelly-to-leave-white-house-idUKRTX6HPZZ">December&#8217;s departure</a>&nbsp;of White House Chief of Staff John Kelly leaves Defense Secretary James Mattis the key restraining influence.



Overall, Trump seems increasingly keen to trust his own judgment rather than that of establishment-based gatekeepers or Republican insiders.



POTUS woos Kim and Putin. Elsewhere, diplomacy unravels.



In Singapore in June and in Helsinki in July, Trump upset many in his own administration with the warmth of his meetings with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The friendliness of the summits stood in stark contrast to the G7 gathering of Western and Allied leaders in Canada, also in June. There, Trump appeared&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g7-summit/trump-torpedoes-g7-effort-to-ease-trade-spat-threatens-auto-tariffs-idUSKCN1J50H3">more isolated than ever before</a>&nbsp;on topics including climate change, protectionism and relations with Russia. The G7 leaders were unable to agree on a communiqué, with the six non-U.S. members making their own statement independent of Washington.



Events at the G7 pointed to a wider malaise in international diplomacy. World leaders at November’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Papua New Guinea&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-apps-china-commentary/commentary-can-u-s-china-relations-be-saved-idUSKCN1NO2EJ">also failed to agree</a>&nbsp;on a communiqué, this time due to divisions between China and the United States and its allies over trade.



Military posturing is also on the rise. Russia, China and NATO&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-apps-wargames-commentary/commentary-why-china-and-russia-are-obsessed-with-vast-new-war-games-idUSKCN1LE1O6">each held their largest wargames</a>&nbsp;in recent history this summer, while confrontations between jets and warships in the South China Sea and Europe have also increased markedly.



Khashoggi killed as authoritarian states take the gloves off



The world’s authoritarian states appeared at least equally as focused on stifling dissent and opposition. Nowhere was that clearer than in the case of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who was&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-saudi-khashoggi-adviser-insight/how-the-man-behind-khashoggi-murder-ran-the-killing-via-skype-idUKKCN1MW2H4">murdered and reportedly dismembered</a>&nbsp;in his own country’s consulate building in Istanbul. Like the suspected Russian nerve agent assassination attempt on a former double agent in the UK town of Salisbury the previous year, the killing sparked international outrage and some diplomatic isolation of Riyadh – but little in the way of convincing apology from those believed responsible.



A string of autocratic governments appear increasingly dismissive of human rights, openly taking draconian action against critics and enemies alike. Russia is continuing its ruthless military campaign against remaining rebel enclaves in Syria, and a Saudi-led coalition has persisted in its war in Yemen – at catastrophic cost to civilians, where millions now face starvation.



China is cracking down on its Muslim Uighur minority, with a U.N. report&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-rights-un/u-n-calls-on-china-to-free-uighurs-from-re-education-camps-idUSKCN1LF1D6">citing estimates Beijing has</a>&nbsp;interned up to one million in “reeducation camps.” Such steps suggest authoritarian rulers like China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Putin may not feel as secure as they appear – or that they believe such brutal tactics are simply necessary to retain their grip.U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korea&#8217;s leader Kim Jong Un leave after signing documents that acknowledge the progress of the talks and pledge to keep momentum going, after their summit at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa island in Singapore June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst



G20 meets as Paris burns



November’s G20 gathering in Argentina was&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-apps-g20-commentary/commentary-for-g20-leaders-greater-problems-yet-to-come-idUSKBN1O22FW">perhaps the year’s most successful</a>&nbsp;multilateral gathering, with world leaders managing to agree on a largely bland communiqué on reform of global trade. Trump’s meeting with China’s Xi brought some temporary relief from the two countries’ trade war, even as Ukraine tensions and Mueller’s Russia probe made a Trump-Putin meeting impossible. There was still no shortage of disagreements on show, however – and as the leaders met, riots in Paris were grabbing global headlines.



Almost every Western leader in Argentina returned home to an existential political crisis. French President Emmanuel Macron has since bowed to some of the demands of the “yellow vest” protesters, particularly over fuel tax, but that has not been enough to stem the unrest. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has signaled she will shortly leave politics, although she has seen some success in appointing a protegé to lead her party. Trump went back to Washington to face the fallout from former lawyer Michael Cohen’s admission of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/cohen-new-charge-trump-1.4925270">lying to Congress</a>&nbsp;about a Trump Tower project in Moscow; British Prime Minister Theresa May has so far failed to find a Brexit deal she can get through Parliament.



Many of these impasses stem from a much wider crisis in Western nations, with rising wealth gaps and often mounting discontent and hardship among the poorest. Solving those issues will be tough – and more disruption feels inevitable through 2019 and beyond. &#8211; Reuters



<ul><li>Peter Apps </li></ul>

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Commentary | Five Moments That Defined 2018

Many of the thousands of delegates at Davos, Switzerland, wonder how long this gathering of the world’s elite can go on in its present form, in what must be one of the world’s strangest locations for an economic conference. It must have looked a great venue, albeit from left field, when it was planned here back in 1971, but then again gas guzzling cars and Richard Nixon also seemed a good idea at the time. The face of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos is changing. In the last decade, the number of delegates from countries like Germany and Britain has fallen, while those from China have increased by 283% and Russia by 57%.
One of the big hitters at this year’s Davos was Narendra Modi, who became the first Indian prime minister to attend in 20 years. He made a stentorian speech defending globalization, criticizing protectionism and urging swift action over climate change. Surely, it is only a matter of time before WEF will be hosted by emerging markets like India, Russia and China.
Davos, a small village in the Alps of eastern Switzerland, is perfect for skiing and even better for taking photographs for a Christmas card – the snow-topped forests cascading down the steep mountainsides are a wonder to behold; the crisp air is as refreshing as a cool drink on a hot day. It is a place where you can clear your head, in seconds, with a lung full of Alpine air.
Yet, as the years wear on, it looks ill-suited for the gathering of the clans of globalization. Thousands of delegates and heads of state from 70 countries, plus more billionaires and business owners than you can poke a stick at, packed out the village this year. Throughout the day, you could see European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and his cohorts picking through the snow, or highly-paid executives slipping on the ice, or Bill Gates sliding through the sludge as the long, cold Alpine night gripped the streets.
Most of the people who live in Davos threw their hands up years ago in the face of the annual invasion by the suited elite. They rent out their homes and flee to better climes. It is a good job that they do because in WEF week Davos is bursting at the seams. This year the traffic jammed around the conference; security was as high as the mountains, with soldiers and police everywhere; there were more snipers on the roof than there were golf carts on the ground transporting delegates over the packed snow the like of which many people in Davos said they hadn’t seen for years. The heavy snow was a reminder that extreme weather and natural disasters were the top concern among delegates this year, according to a WEF survey, followed by cyberattacks and data theft.
One of the reasons for the tight security, in this crowded village, was the visit of the controversial leader of the free world Donald Trump. It was a surprise visit to say the least; for years Trump derided the intellectual globalists of WEF. Now he wanted to come and sell his “America First” policy as the first US president to set foot in Davos since Bill Clinton in 2000. Along with an 827-strong US delegation – out of 3,000 delegates – he came to laud his tax cuts and reforms that delivered growth, forecast at 2.7%, this year, a fillip for the world economy after a decade of torpid growth.
It is a bright spot, on a brighter horizon, unveiled by the great and the good at Davos. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts global growth of 3.9% this year and next; 0.2% higher than expected thanks to US tax cuts and a sterling performance from emerging economies like Russia and Brazil. Better, but no time for complacency says IMF head Christine Lagarde, who wants to push growth harder by cracking down on tax evasion and corruption.
“When the sun is shining it is time to fix the roof,” says Lagarde. “Or when the snow stops it is time to clear the road. That is how it seems to work in Davos.”
Despite this glimmer of hope you get the feeling optimism is running out at WEF. For a start, you could argue that Trump’s strident one-nation populism – that appears to have spread to a score of other countries – is one reason why the liberal WEF ethos of working together to ease investment and fix the world is struggling to stay afloat.
“It is America First meets We are the World,” quipped the Wall Street Journal on the eve of the visit.
<div id="attachment_35580" style="width: 391px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-35580" class=" wp-image-35580" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Donald-Trump-WEF-e1520928622889-300x194.jpg" alt="" width="381" height="246" />US President Donald Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland (Photo by Getty Images)</div>
Before Trump set foot in Davos, he ruffled feathers with disparaging remarks about Africa. Many of the African delegates told me they were going to boycott his speech in protest.
“There has never been a better time to hire, to build, to invest and to grow in the United States,” says Trump in his speech that this time took a swipe at the press instead of Africa.
“It wasn’t until I became a politician, that I realized how nasty, how mean, how vicious and how fake the press can be.”
If you want to get an idea of how far Africa is under the US radar right now, you should have been at the press briefing held by the urbane US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. I asked about the future of Power Africa under the Trump administration; a fair question given the America First policy and the power plan’s origins. It is a legacy of Barack Obama and aims to blend US aid with private investment to create 30,000MW of electricity, enough to power an industrialized nation like South Africa. The fast-talking US lobby correspondents whipped around to look at me as if I had asked the source of the Zambezi.
“It is still going. We have created about 400MW in Ghana, which it not even 1%. But we are going to visit in the second quarter,” says the Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross without much interest.
I was encouraged by Nigerian multi-millionaire Tony Elumelu who later assured me African investors would see Power Africa through.
Contrast that with the fire and enthusiasm of one of Africa’s future leaders who saw WEF as a stage to launch his campaign to clean up his country and bring back investors. Cyril Ramaphosa, the man set to be the next president of South Africa if the African National Congress wins the 2019 elections, is already behaving with that statesmanlike assurance of power. In many ways he was Africa’s man of the moment at Davos.
It was not always so. For more than a quarter of a century the lawyer-activist, who founded the biggest union in Africa, the National Union of Mineworkers, was the nearly man of South African politics. He nearly became deputy to Nelson Mandela in 1994 and went off to business instead. Now he is on the cusp of real political power and appears to respect this.
With a ready, beaming smile that could melt the Davos snow, Ramaphosa has a deft common touch. On the cold night we sat for dinner in Davos, Ramaphosa staged a charm offensive for the gathering of millionaires and a number of South Africa’s most powerful CEOs. These are among the people he needs to win over if the country’s economy is to slip back into gear. The sad story of the last year has been downgrades to junk status by the ratings agencies and minuscule growth from the once cooking, commodity-rich South African economy.
Avuncular and cracking jokes, the future president changed seats over and over again until he had spoken to everyone on the long table. It was more like a South African wedding than a formal dinner at which he hammered home his anti-corruption message.
“There are no holy cows. Anyone who is caught doing wrong things will end up behind the bars of a jail,” says Ramaphosa.
Most of the business types agreed that this was what they wanted to hear after years of economic struggle and a host of corruption scandals. Ramaphosa has been busy since his ascent, prompting corruption investigations and the freezing of assets. It was enough to send the rand soaring above 12 to the dollar, which warmed many South African delegates in the snow.
Ramaphosa helped the rand further by telling the world that the nuclear power deal – that the present incumbent is pushing – is off the table for now because it is too expensive. He also promised to sort out the disputed Mining Charter – the document that guides efforts to increase black ownership of the mines; uncertainty and court challenges over rushed amendments to the document have choked investment.
<div id="attachment_35581" style="width: 392px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-35581" class=" wp-image-35581" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Cyril-Ramaphosa-WEF-e1520928824721-300x200.jpg" alt="" width="382" height="254" />South Africa&#8217;s President Cyril Ramaphosa at the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland (Photo by Getty Images)</div>
In all, according to Ramaphosa and finance minister Malusi Gigaba, their utterances at Davos had unlocked hundreds of millions of dollars from investors in South Africa who were holding back because of concern about corruption and political uncertainty. Ramaphosa believes the ratings agencies are likely to give South Africa a better score when he meets with them.
“We are going home happy with bags full of millions of dollars of promises from investors,” says Ramaphosa with a smile before he flew home.
Most around the dinner table in Davos agreed that Ramaphosa’s words were fine as a starter, but wanted to see the main course.
Elsewhere in Africa, Nigerian entrepreneur and former FORBES AFRICA cover Tonye Cole, the co-founder of the Sahara Group, was as optimistic as ever.
“Africa will play a role. The world has to look at Africa as the last place to make a difference and they will do that,” says Cole.
Rwanda was in fine fettle, according to its finance minister Claver Gatete in Davos, with 8% growth expected this year on the back of increasing exports – a rate that most countries in the world would do anything for right now.
“We are trying to remain an open and attractive economy,” says Gatete.
Nigeria, after years of suffering under falling oil prices and the decline of the naira, is looking up at long last. Growth is expected to be 1.4% this year, according to Vice President Yemi Osinbajo. Also expected is a 40% increase in exports, and better revenues from oil.
“It is a bullish period for us in terms of attracting business and we are excited,” says Osinbajo.
The words of hope that said it all for Africa on one cold Swiss afternoon came from South Africa’s Reserve Bank Governor, the tall and enthusiastic Lesetja Kganyago.
“This time last year I was pleading with investors to keep confidence in South Africa and keep their money in the country. This year I do not have enough time in the day to meet people who want to put their money into the country,” says a smiling Kganyago.
Bring on the main course – we’re hungry.

Africa Left In The Cold

One year after taking office, President Donald Trump’s fortune is down an estimated $400 million to $3.1 billion on the latest Forbes World’s Billionaires list. His net worth remains even from the most recent Forbes 400 list of the richest Americans, released in October. What caused the year-over-year decline? Markets are partially to blame—retail real estate in New York City continues to struggle—but the president’s polarizing personality is costing him business as well.
The rise of ecommerce has pushed down the value of properties like Trump Tower, which sits in the heart of shopping mecca Fifth Avenue in New York City. Forbes estimates that the value of Trump’s most famous building declined $41 million in the last year.
Just around the corner, the president’s property at 6 East 57th Street has suffered even more. Piling onto the market challenges, longtime tenant Nike <a href="https://news.nike.com/news/new-york-city-flagship-store-5th-avenue" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://news.nike.com/news/new-york-city-flagship-store-5th-avenue">announced</a> it is vacating the space this spring. That leaves the Trump Organization in need of a new occupant at its roughly 65,000 square-foot property. “I don’t know of any tenants that need that much space other than department stores,” <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2017/12/06/donald-trumps-real-estate-business-is-losing-one-of-its-most-important-tenants/#3f7bfe35e037" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> Manhattan real estate broker Eric Anton. “And I don’t think there are any expanding department stores.”
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2017/12/07/donald-trumps-real-estate-business-losing-one-important-tenants/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Donald Trump&#8217;s Real Estate Business Losing One Of Its Most Important Tenants</a>
The president’s golf properties have been less affected by market shifts, but they seem more susceptible to political currents. Three of the president’s largest golf clubs are in states that voted for him, and revenues appear to be up more than 5% at all of them. The reverse happened in places where Trump lost to Hillary Clinton, with sales down an estimated 4% in the northeast and Los Angeles. Revenues are also down in Scotland, where the president owns two golf clubs.
The value of Trump’s hotel licensing and management company dropped an estimated $50 million in the last year, as the power of the Trump brand seems to be fading in markets like Toronto and New York, where investors have removed the president’s name from hotels. On Monday, workers <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-trump-panama-hotel-showdown-appears-to-end-and-the-trump-name-is-coming-down/2018/03/05/41fa8498-2097-11e8-94da-ebf9d112159c_story.html?utm_term=.9c83cb1f9775" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-trump-panama-hotel-showdown-appears-to-end-and-the-trump-name-is-coming-down/2018/03/05/41fa8498-2097-11e8-94da-ebf9d112159c_story.html?utm_term=.9c83cb1f9775">reportedly pried</a> Trump&#8217;s name off of a third tower, in Panama.
Shortly before Trump became president, his lawyer promised no new foreign deals while Trump was in office, effectively shutting down one potential avenue for growth. Months later, the Trump Organization <a href="http://www.trump.com/getmedia/dfb731db-8915-47e7-a501-9f1ce10cc628/Trump-Hotels-AI-SCION-Announcement-FINAL/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:http://www.trump.com/getmedia/dfb731db-8915-47e7-a501-9f1ce10cc628/Trump-Hotels-AI-SCION-Announcement-FINAL/">announced</a> plans for two new domestic brands, named Scion and American Idea. So far, they have only announced four deals. “I just think it’s an impossible mission,” says one hotel expert.
There are bright spots in the president’s portfolio. Downtown Manhattan office space is performing better than midtown retail, helping boost Trump’s most valuable property, 40 Wall Street, by an estimated $32 million.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/10/12/50-minutes-oval-office-citizen-trump-barely-word-money/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: 50 Minutes In The Oval Office With Citizen Trump &#8211; And Barely A Word About His Money</a>
Real estate tycoon Steven Roth may be doing more to add to the president’s fortune than anyone else. As CEO of publicly traded Vornado Realty Trust, Roth oversees management of 1290 Avenue of the Americas in New York and 555 California Street in San Francisco, two properties in which Trump owns a 30% interest. Profits surged an estimated 15% at the New York building, and the market continues to thrive in San Francisco, boosting the value of Trump’s two holdings by a combined $71 million.
Forbes also uncovered additional information that bumped up the value of certain assets while diminishing the value of others. The president paid off a loan against Niketown, for example, and apparently drew down an additional $45 million in debt at his Washington D.C. hotel.
It all adds up to an estimated $3.1 billion fortune—a far cry from the $10 billion-plus that Trump <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150723222800/https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-releases/donald-j.-trump-files-personal-financial-disclosure-statement-with-federal" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://web.archive.org/web/20150723222800/https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-releases/donald-j.-trump-files-personal-financial-disclosure-statement-with-federal">once claimed</a> but nonetheless enough to make him the richest president in U.S. history. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/" data-ga-track="contrib block byline">Dan Alexander</a>, FORBES STAFF

Donald Trump Drops $400 Million On Forbes Billionaires List

Donald Trump’s private real estate empire officially lost one of its most important tenants on Monday, when Nike <a href="https://news.nike.com/news/new-york-city-flagship-store-5th-avenue" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that it is closing its store at the president’s 6 East 57th Street property in New York City next spring in favor of a new location just a few blocks away. The announcement comes a year after commercial landlord SL Green disclosed that it had <a href="http://slgreen.com/news/342" target="_blank" rel="noopener">signed a 15-year lease</a> with Nike at 650 Fifth Avenue.
Of all of the commercial properties in President Trump’s portfolio, the site known as Niketown is by far the largest occupied by a single tenant. With Nike leaving, the Trump Organization is left searching for a new identity at the marquee property, which Forbes estimates is worth $253 million.
The building comprises roughly 65,000 square feet of space just off of Fifth Avenue, in the middle of one of the most famous retail corridors in the world. But as Amazon and other e-commerce sites grab more business every year, the value of retail real estate in the neighborhood continues to fall. That Trump controls Niketown, which is just around the corner from Trump Tower, only further complicates things.
“I don’t know of any tenants that need that much space other than department stores,” said Eric Anton, a Manhattan real estate broker at the firm Marcus &amp; Millichap. “And I don’t think there are any expanding department stores. Maybe Harrods comes in and takes it. But any foreign group is going to be looked at as weird &#8211; you know, collusion or some kind of crazy Trump conspiracy theory.”
Domestic retailers might also look for other sites in a New York City borough where only <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/new-york" target="_blank" rel="noopener">10% of the population</a> voted for Donald Trump. Tiffany’s, which owns the site next door to Niketown, said “post-election traffic disruptions” helped cause a 14% drop in sales during the 2016 holiday season.
Still, 6 East 57th Street remains in the heart of New York’s commercial district, which draws tourists from all over the world. “You’ve got the best retail on the planet within 100 feet in every direction,” Anton said. “Maybe you cherry-pick one of the tenants that’s coming out, you know. You’re definitely going to do a new facade. They’ll scrape that facade off and they’ll build something really interesting.”
A spokesperson for the Trump Organization did not respond to a request for comment.
Whatever the Trump Organization ends up doing, it won’t be under much pressure from lenders. The Trump Organization, which owns a ground lease on the space through 2079, recently paid off its debt on the property. The president’s business also owns office and retail space at Trump Tower. The largest tenant there is Gucci, according to a 2012 Securities and Exchange Commission <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/850779/000153949712000490/fwp.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">filing</a>, which has a lease that expires in 2026.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/billionaires/2017/10/18/donald-trumps-fortune-fell-600-million-one-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: How Donald Trump&#8217;s Fortune Fell $600 Million In One Year</a>
Since the announcement of Nike’s new agreement with SL Green, many have speculated that the move out from the shadow of Trump Tower was at least in part driven by Trump’s divisive political rhetoric. Nike spokeswoman Ilana Finley declined to address whether politics played a role in the decision, saying that the company had been planning a move “for years.” The new space “gives us more opportunities to play with new concepts than we have now,” Finley said.
Two employees said that while Trump’s political rhetoric played a minor role in Nike’s decision to leave, the physical layout of the store was a bigger factor. “It is mostly due to space constraints, more than any political implications,” said one current Nike employee, who requested anonymity to speak about matters they weren’t authorized to discuss.
Another employee, who also requested anonymity, said that store designers at Nike “hated” working on displays there. “It’s just tight. It’s hard to do what we want to do there.” The employee said that being associated with Trump’s name was also “a factor, to some degree.”
Some former Nike employees, meanwhile, scoffed at the notion that Nike’s move was in part politically motivated. “We never did anything when I was there that was even remotely political,” said Ed Stair, a former vice president of real estate and store construction who worked for Nike for more than a decade.
Nike will close its current space sometime in March 2018, the company said. While the new store won’t open for another year after that, customers will still be able to shop at the company’s stores in the SoHo and Flatiron neighborhoods. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattdrange/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-ga-track="contrib block byline">Matt Drange</a>, FORBES STAFF

Donald Trump’s Real Estate Business Losing One Of Its Most Important Tenants

<a href="https://www.forbes.com/companies/starbucks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Starbucks</a> chairman and former CEO <a href="http://www.forbes.com/profile/howard-schultz/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Howard Schultz</a> has never been one to hold back on giving his opinion about the state of the country. On Thursday, speaking at the DealBook conference in New York City, Schultz continued his outspoken streak &#8211; especially when it came to the subject of the GOP&#8217;s new <a href="https://waysandmeansforms.house.gov/uploadedfiles/bill_text.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tax proposal</a>, which has suggested lowering the corporate tax rate to 20%.
<a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fmaggiemcgrath%2F2017%2F11%2F09%2Fstarbucks-howard-schultz-gop-tax-plan-is-fools-gold-that-doesnt-help-vulnerable-americans%2F&amp;text=It%E2%80%99s%20fool%E2%80%99s%20gold%20that%20he%20wants%20to%20take%20the%20corporate%20tax%20rate%20from%2035%25%20to%2020%25.%22%20Howard%20Schultz%20on%20GOP%20tax%20proposal%3A" target="_blank" rel="noopener">&#8220;This is not tax reform. This is a tax cut. It’s fool’s gold that he wants to take the corporate tax rate from 35% to 20%,&#8221;</a> Schultz said Thursday morning. &#8220;For what purpose? Is that profit going to go back to the people who need it the most? Is that going to help half the country that doesn’t have $400 in their bank account for a crisis? No.”
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Schultz didn&#8217;t stop there. &#8220;I don’t believe corporate America needs a 20% tax cut when in fact you’re <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2017/11/07/the-gop-tax-plan-will-destroy-graduate-education/#2849f31f3d2f" target="_blank" rel="noopener">not doing anything to help students</a>, you’re taking away that benefit, and you’re <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/samanthasharf/2017/11/03/what-the-republican-tax-plan-means-for-the-value-of-your-home/#4ae0cb3a3c4d" target="_blank" rel="noopener">[reducing] the mortgage benefit</a> and so many people in America are living paycheck to paycheck,&#8221; he continued. &#8220;The country and American people are asking for and demanding and in great need of a more compassionate government and more compassionate society. The tax cut is not going to create a level playing field and more compassionate society.&#8221;
(For more details on the bill, which was released last week, see Forbes senior editor <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphillipserb/2017/11/02/from-mortgage-caps-to-tax-brackets-how-the-house-tax-bill-could-impact-your-taxes/#29faec0feb83" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kelly Erb&#8217;s breakdown here</a>.)
When asked by an audience member what Starbucks would do with its tax cut, Schultz said first that he doesn&#8217;t think the tax proposal will pass, but then said that if it does, the majority of the savings would &#8220;not&#8221; go to corporate profits. &#8220;We will find other ways to create a contribution back to either the communities we serve, the initiatives we have with our veterans or obviously our people with benefits,&#8221; he said.
Schultz had come to the DealBook conference to discuss the role that public corporations should play in America in 2017 &#8211; a subject he is well-qualified to pontificate upon given some of his public comments and activity throughout President Trump&#8217;s first year in office. (&#8220;The moral fiber, the values, and what we as a country have stood for is literally hanging in the abyss,&#8221; Schultz <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/18/starbucks-chairman-questions-countrys-moral-fiber.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">told Starbucks employees</a> in August, following Trump&#8217;s equivocating remarks about the white supremacist violence in Charlottesville. And in January, in response to the president&#8217;s attempted travel ban on immigrants and refugees from seven Muslim-majority countries, Schultz and Starbucks announced a plan to hire <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/maggiemcgrath/2017/01/29/hitting-back-at-trumps-executive-order-starbucks-ceo-vows-to-hire-10000-refugees/#1579f3920bb3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">10,000 refugees over the next five years</a>.)
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/10/12/50-minutes-oval-office-citizen-trump-barely-word-money/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: 50 Minutes In The Oval Office With Citizen Trump &#8211; And Barely A Word About His Money</a>
On Thursday, Schultz said that he doesn&#8217;t believe any company or chief executive should take a political position for vanity or personal gain. But, he continued, <a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fmaggiemcgrath%2F2017%2F11%2F09%2Fstarbucks-howard-schultz-gop-tax-plan-is-fools-gold-that-doesnt-help-vulnerable-americans%2F&amp;text=%24SBUX%20chairman%20Howard%20Schultz%3A%20%22I%20do%20think%20the%20rules%20of%20engagement%20for%20a%20public%20company%20have%20changed%20dramatically.%22" target="_blank" rel="noopener">&#8220;I do think the rules of engagement for a public company have changed dramatically.</a> And I think we have a moral obligation to try to raise the national discourse on the things that are not so much political, but are conversations that need to take place.&#8221;
His rhetoric and actions may resemble those of a person with political ambitions, but Schultz has repeatedly denied that he is interested in running for public office. Last year, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgeanders/2016/03/01/howard-schultzs-stormy-crusades-the-starbucks-boss-opens-up/#1bbd463a4154" target="_blank" rel="noopener">he told Forbes</a> that he doesn&#8217;t think government holds the answers to the issues that concern him the most. He reiterated that stance on Thursday.
&#8220;I’m not thinking about that,&#8221; Schultz said, launching into a response befitting of a politician, &#8220;but I’m deeply concerned about the country and direction of the country. I’m deeply concerned about our standing in the world, and I’m deeply concerned about Americans who are not participating in the economy.&#8221; &#8211; Written by <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/maggiemcgrath/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-ga-track="contrib block byline">Maggie McGrath</a>, FORBES STAFF

Starbucks’ Howard Schultz: GOP Tax Plan Is ‘Fool’s Gold’ That Doesn’t Help Vulnerable Americans

A tough New York real estate market, a costly lawsuit and an expensive presidential campaign all contributed to the declining fortune of the 45th president. After months of digging through financial disclosures and public property records and conducting dozens of interviews, Forbes now estimates POTUS&#8217; net worth at $3.1 billion, down from $3.7 billion a year ago. He drops to No. 248 in the ranks of the richest people in America, down from No. 156 in 2016.
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The biggest hit was to Trump&#8217;s real estate portfolio, which is weighted heavily toward New York City. Values of several Manhattan properties, particularly those on or near Fifth Avenue, have dropped, shaving nearly $400 million off his fortune. Some of his golf properties, including ones in Miami, Ireland and Scotland, have also declined in value, as some would-be guests stayed away, apparently offended by the president&#8217;s politics and bombast. Trump&#8217;s cash pile is down an estimated $100 million since last year, after he spent $66 million on his campaign and $25 million settling a lawsuit over Trump University. As always, we refined our estimates based on new information uncovered during months of reporting.
<a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/lists/2017/10/18/forbes-400-2017-meet-richest-people-america/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Meet The Richest People In America</a>
A handful of Trump&#8217;s assets rose in value in the past year, including the hotel-condo tower in Las Vegas that he owns with fellow Forbes 400 member Phil Ruffin and his minority stake in a downtown San Francisco office building, which continues to benefit from the red-hot real estate market there. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-ga-track="contrib block byline">Dan Alexander and </a><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattdrange/#46912f5c45b3" target="_self">Matt Drange</a>, FORBES STAFF

How Donald Trump’s Fortune Fell $600 Million In One Year

FORBES and Donald Trump. Talk about a complicated relationship. It&#8217;s been so for 35 years, since the birth of The Forbes 400. First, he was Playboy Trump. Then, The Donald. Then, Republican-candidate Trump. As New York&#8217;s ringmaster extraordinaire, he loved our rich list&#8211;until the newest one came out. Then he hated it, or at least the number we pinned on him. It was always too low&#8211;or &#8220;very low,&#8221; as only he can say it. As legend goes, it was so low one year he had words with the Forbes family.
Now, as president of the United States, he sent signals he wanted another Forbes cover (his fourth solo cover), much like celebrities rack up hosting gigs on Saturday Night Live. In the midst of a national tragedy, hurricanes and his early morning Twitter fisticuffs, he was ready to make the time. We were ready to oblige &#8211; in return for an interview focused on the first business president. Forbes and Trump. Maybe it&#8217;s more of a functional codependency.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/10/04/trumps-africa-policy-still-incoherent-key-signals-emerging/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trump&#8217;s Africa policy is still incoherent</a>
Trump is Trump. He will always be so, whether sitting behind a majestic desk in the Oval Office, where we talked with him last week, or at the &#8220;very best&#8221; table at Jean-Georges, a three-star Michelin restaurant in the Trump International Hotel &amp; Tower adjacent to Columbus Circle, where he took me to lunch several years ago. Yet this time he feigned no interest in his billions. No accountant was in tow to prove his net worth. Surrounding him this day were paintings, sculptures and writings of Washington and Lincoln. During our <a href="https://www.forbes.com/donald-trump/exclusive-interview/#62546f30bdec" target="_blank" rel="noopener">50-minute interview</a> he never asked what the number would be, sparing us a tongue-lashing and an inaugural-crowd-like media brouhaha.
America&#8217;s CEO for ten months, Trump&#8217;s unique C-suite mind has upended all White House norms, yet his new responsibilities humbled him for a split second&#8211;&#8220;Nothing prepares you for &#8230; when you send missiles, that means people are going to die. And nothing prepares you for that.&#8221; That can make it a &#8220;lonely&#8221; job, he says. He certainly snapped to life as our camera crew walked in. Remember, he is the master of his own image and was fixated on the photography.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2011/10/01/west-africas-donald-trump-2/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">West Africa&#8217;s Donald Trump?</a>
And he loves his current real estate, even though it can never really be his. The president joyfully showed our editor, Randall Lane, and me a bit of his new stomping grounds&#8211;a well-appointed terrace, a now-covered pool, a fabled room and the beautiful golf-course-like greenery outside his Oval Office window. He seemed as proud of the landscape as he is of Mar-a-Lago. From the Big Apple to the nation&#8217;s capital, Forbes and Trump live on. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/lewisdvorkin/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-ga-track="contrib block byline">Lewis DVorkin</a>, FORBES STAFF

50 Minutes In The Oval Office With Citizen Trump – And Barely A Word About His Money

Africa’s leaders, along with everyone else interested in US-Africa relations, have waited eight months for US President Donald Trump’s administration to explain its Africa policy. We aren’t there yet.
But in recent weeks Trump has indicated the level and extent of his interest. And, senior African affairs officials at the State and Defence Departments are at last attempting publicly to outline US goals and objectives toward Africa. This, apparently without much guidance from their president.
Trump’s inaugural address to the UN General Assembly said little about Africa – barely one paragraph <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/09/19/remarks-president-trump-72nd-session-united-nations-general-assembly" target="_blank" rel="noopener">towards the end</a>. One sentence praised African Union and UN-led peacekeeping missions for “invaluable contributions in stabilising conflicts in Africa.” A second praised America, which
<blockquote>continues to lead the world in humanitarian assistance, including famine prevention and relief in South Sudan, Somalia and northern Nigeria and Yemen.</blockquote>
The next day Trump hosted a luncheon for leaders of nine African countries – Cote d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Namibia, Nigeria, Senegal, Uganda, and South Africa. Only his welcoming remarks have been published but they are nearly devoid of <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/09/20/remarks-president-trump-working-lunch-african-leaders" target="_blank" rel="noopener">policy content or guidance</a>. His opening gambit reminded me of a 19th century colonialist hoping to become rich, as he proclaimed:
<blockquote>Africa has tremendous business potential, I have so many friends going to your countries trying to get rich. I congratulate you, they’re spending a lot of money….It’s really become a place they have to go, that they want to go.</blockquote>
Trump called on African companies to invest in the US. Then, shifting to security cooperation, he urged Africans to help defeat Islamist extremists and the threat from North Korea.
The American president proposed no new presidential initiatives for Africa. But, at least, he did not say those launched by predecessors were a waste of money and would be ended. Nor did he mention opposition to foreign assistance generally. He also did not mention his renunciation of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2017/jun/01/donald-trump-paris-climate-agreement-live-news" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Paris Climate Accord</a> and refusal to fund <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/why-trump-seeing-red-about-green-climate-fund-n767351" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Green Climate Fund</a>. Both are crucial for Africa’s adaptation to global warming.
A “US-Africa Partnerships” conference at the <a href="https://www.sfcg.org/events-schedule/2016-09-13/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US Institute for Peace</a> in Washington in mid-September provided additional clues to how this administration will conduct Africa policy.
Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Tom Shannon, offered the first high level <a href="https://www.state.gov/plus/rem/2017/274073.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">official statement on Africa</a>. Shannon, a highly accomplished Foreign Service officer, emphasised policy continuity. But, he implicitly affirmed Trump’s apparent desire for minimal engagement in Africa.
Shannon and Acting Assistant Secretary Donald Yamamoto at a later session, stressed the <a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/201709180753.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">four main pillars</a> that have framed Africa policy for many years, would remain. These are:
<ul>
<li>peace and security;</li>
<li>counterterrorism;</li>
<li>economic trade, investment and development; and,</li>
<li>democracy and good governance.</li>
</ul>
They endorsed previous presidential initiatives, including specific references to former US President Barack Obama’s <a href="https://www.feedthefuture.gov/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Feed the Future</a>, <a href="https://www.usaid.gov/powerafrica/aboutus" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Power Africa</a> and the Young African <a href="https://yali.state.gov/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Leaders Initiative</a>. Their continuation, and at what levels, will depend on budget decisions. Trump’s initial recommendations, endorsed by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, call for crippling cuts.
So far, the only new social development program that Trump has endorsed is the World Bank’s global Women Entrepreneurs <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/women-entrepreneurs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Finance Initiative</a>, championed by his daughter Ivanka. The US has donated $50 million toward its global start-up budget of <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/07/08/ivanka-trump-and-40-million-for-women-entrepreneurs-nice-idea-but-trivially-unimportant/#757bef521af2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$315 million</a>. As Yamamoto noted at the September meeting, Africa could benefit from this initiative.
Trump will be less likely to challenge US military’s commitments in Africa. With this in mind I paid close attention to the <a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/201709140684.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">address</a> by General Thomas Waldhauser, Commander of the US Africa Command (Africom) at the September 13 meeting. He set out Africom’s current engagements in Libya and Somalia, where he said the mission was to support locally engineered political solutions.
Critics of America’s many previous failed interventions in these two countries and elsewhere, will rightly remain sceptical.
The second part of his address dealt more broadly with Africom’s capacity building assistance, nationally and regionally. He said Africom only operates where
<blockquote>US and partner nation strategic objectives are compatible and aligned and, second, the operations are conducted primarily by partner nation forces with the US in a supporting role.</blockquote>
Africom, he said, conducts “some 3,500 exercises, programs and engagements” annually, with “5-to-6,000 US service members working on the continent every day.”
Waldenhauser ended his address with a surprisingly specific and positive view on China’s role in Africa. He praised China’s assistance to building much needed infrastructure throughout Africa and for the rapid growth in China-Africa trade which exceeded $300 billion in 2016.
On security issues, he commended Chinese President Xi Jinping’s pledge of <a href="http://uhuruspirit.org/news/?x=8706#.WdIYnVuCw9c" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$100 million</a> to the AU and for supporting UN peacekeeping missions with 8,000 police officers. He then referred to the construction of China’s first overseas military base, which is near the US base in Djibouti, as creating “opportunities found nowhere else in the world,” relating that:
<blockquote>China assigned the first soldiers to this base and expressed interest in conducting amphibious training between Chinese and US Marines. Across the continent, we have shared interests in African stability. We see many areas where we can cooperate with the Chinese military. For example, we both support UN peacekeeping missions and training with African defence forces. The fact that we have mutual interests in Africa means that we can and should cooperate.</blockquote>
To emphasise the importance of this comment he quoted Secretary of Defence James Mattis when he pointed out earlier this year:
<blockquote>Our two countries can and do cooperate for mutual benefit. And we will pledge to work closely with China where we share common cause.</blockquote>
But China-US security cooperation in Africa can’t succeed without the inclusion of African governments as equal partners in this “common cause”.
Such “win-win-win” experiments in mutual confidence building would not only benefit Africans, but could also serve as positive examples for other regions and could improve US-China relations globally. In the absence of a coherent and compelling US – Africa policy, this at least is one positive development that merits our attention. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-j-stremlau-182813" target="_blank" rel="author noopener">John J Stremlau</a>, 2017 Bradlow Fellow at SA Institute of International Affairs,Visiting Professor of International Relations, University of the Witwatersrand
Originally published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>
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Trump’s Africa policy is still incoherent, but key signals are emerging

One of the world’s leading voices on business believes better times could be round the corner for the United States economy despite uncertainty over North Korea.
Steve Forbes – a dyed-in-the-wool Republican who ran twice for president – spoke to editors and publishers of the many versions of the magazine around the world, including Forbes Africa. The conference, at the Forbes Media center on Fifth Avenue in New York, was part of the 100-year celebrations of the world-famous business magazine. It was Forbes’ chance to show his stripes as the eternal optimist in US capitalism.
“I think you will see the US economy showing signs of life over the next three months, you will see a growth rate of more than 3%, maybe more,” says Forbes.
“I think there will be a big tax cut soon, there has to be. Republicans may not be the fastest thinking people in the world, but half the senate is up for re-election and not too many of them want to end up as an Uber driver.”
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/extreme-execs/2017/09/21/mad-decision-paying-off-100-years-later/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A Mad Decision Paying Off 100 Years Later</a>
Forbes believes that the politicians could come up with a vote-winning cut in corporate tax, from 38.9% to 18%, or even as low as 15%. He believes this could stimulate the economy.
“A little growth goes a long way. Bill Clinton survived all of his scandals as president because the economy was growing. By contrast, Richard Nixon was kicked out because the economy was struggling.”
On the trade front, the threats from President Donald Trump to slap tariffs on everything to protect business may not come to pass.
“I think the reality will be much gentler than the rhetoric, especially if the economy is growing,” says Forbes.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2017/09/20/forbes-magazine-100-years-hits-flops/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Forbes Magazine: 100 Years Of Hits And Flops</a>
Yet the Editor-in-Chief of Forbes believes the US will be tough against the nuclear threat of North Korea.
“If they attack us they know they will be obliterated no matter what happens. The feeling is strong here that North Korea does not take us seriously. The US will increase sanctions, including cutting North Korea out of the world banking system. We have had sanctions before and they hurt North Korea.”

Cheer up, better times ahead for world economy – Steve Forbes

Hundreds of fake Facebook accounts and Pages that were likely affiliated with one another and operated out of Russia bought $100,000 in political advertisements on the social network over the past two years, Facebook said in a statement. Facebook shared its findings with U.S. authorities investigating Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.
The fake accounts and Pages were allegedly connected to a “shadowy” Russian company seeking to target voters, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/facebook-says-it-sold-political-ads-to-russian-company-during-2016-election/2017/09/06/32f01fd2-931e-11e7-89fa-bb822a46da5b_story.html?utm_term=.d0be98616b7a" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to a report in The Washington Post </a>on Wednesday. The company, called the Internet Research Agency, is known for using fake accounts to comment on news stories and post on social media. U.S. intelligence agencies said in January that the likely backer of the Internet Research Agency is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Congressional investigators and special counsel Robert Mueller are probing allegations of Russian interference in the U.S. election and possible coordination with members of President Donald Trump&#8217;s campaign. In January, U.S. intelligence agencies concluded that the Russian government, under orders from Putin, hacked Democratic targets in an effort to hamper Hillary Clinton’s election prospects and aid Trump’s.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/current-affairs/2017/08/14/even-minor-nuclear-war-ecological-disaster-felt-throughout-world/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Even a &#8216;minor&#8217; nuclear war would be an ecological disaster felt throughout the world </a>
While the ad spending figure is small, Facebook’s findings raise questions about the extent of Russian involvement in the U.S. election and how misinformation on social media may have affected voters. Under federal law, foreign governments and foreign nationals are prohibited from making contributions or spending money to influence a federal, state or local election in the U.S. Facebook briefed the House and Senate intelligence committees about the findings on Wednesday.
These 470 fake accounts and Pages purchased approximately 3,000 ads focused on divisive social and political topics such as LGBT matters, race, immigration and gun rights, Facebook <a href="https://newsroom.fb.com/news/2017/09/information-operations-update/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said in a blog post</a> by chief security officer Alex Stamos. The large majority of the ads did not specifically reference the U.S. presidential election, voting or a particular candidate. The ads were purchased between June 2015 to May 2017, and about a quarter of the total ads were geographically targeted. Facebook shut down the inauthentic accounts and Pages that were still active, because fake accounts violate the social network’s policy, the company said.
“There have been a lot of questions since the 2016 US election about Russian interference in the electoral process,” Stamos wrote in the blog post. “One question that has emerged is whether there’s a connection between the Russian efforts and ads purchased on Facebook. These are serious claims and we’ve been reviewing a range of activity on our platform to help understand what happened.”
Facebook said it has also done a broad search for ads that might have originated in Russia, for example, ads purchased from accounts with U.S. IP addresses but with the language set to Russian. In this search, Facebook said it found an additional $50,000 in advertising spending with a potential Russian connection across about 2,200 ads.
Facebook has taken a series of new steps since the U.S. presidential election to crack down on the spread of misinformation on the social network, including launching a third-party fact-checking program and improving artificial intelligence technology that can detect fake accounts. In August, Facebook said it will no longer allow Pages that repeatedly share false news to advertise on Facebook. The company also curbs the spread of stories from sources that consistently post clickbait headlines. In the past few months, Facebook has taken steps to block fake accounts in Germany and France.
Stamos said Facebook is looking into a range of improvements to keep inauthentic accounts and bad actors off of its platform. For example, Facebook is testing ways to use its technology for detecting fake accounts to better detect inauthentic Pages and the ads they could run. The company is also experimenting with tools to stop the creation of inauthentic accounts at the time they are formed. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/kathleenchaykowski/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-ga-track="contrib block byline">Kathleen Chaykowski</a>, FORBES STAFF

Facebook  Friends Finance

Facebook Says Fake Accounts Likely Tied To Russia Bought $100,000 In Political Ads

President Donald Trump’s vow to hit North Korea with “fire and fury like the world has never seen” is an unveiled threat to unleash America’s most potent weapons of mass destruction onto the Korean peninsula. According to many defence analysts, the risk of nuclear confrontation over <a href="https://theconversation.com/west-could-sleepwalk-into-a-doomsday-war-with-russia-its-time-to-wake-up-59936" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Europe</a> and the <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/concerns-raised-about-risk-nuclear-war-between-india-pakistan-says-us-1566210" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Indian subcontinent</a> has also increased in recent years.
In a more hopeful turn of events, 122 countries voted in June to adopt the United Nations <a href="http://www.undocs.org/en/a/conf.229/2017/L.3/Rev.1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons</a> in New York. The “ban treaty” will make nuclear weapons illegal for ratifying countries, and many see it as an <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-efforts-to-secure-a-deal-on-banning-all-nuclear-weapons-are-so-important-75484" target="_blank" rel="noopener">opportunity</a> to kick start a renewed effort towards multilateral disarmament. Supporters of the treaty argue that even a limited, regional nuclear war would produce a catastrophic and global humanitarian crisis.
Equally, other analysts suggest that the reality is not as severe as is often depicted. In March this year, Matthias Eken, a researcher of attitudes towards nuclear weapons, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-understandable-fear-of-nuclear-weapons-doesnt-match-reality-73563" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wrote in The Conversation</a> that their destructive power “has been vastly exaggerated” and that one should avoid overusing “doomsday scenarios and apocalyptic language”.
Eken argued that nuclear weapons are not as powerful as often described, on the basis that a 9 megaton thermonuclear warhead dropped over the state of Arkansas would only destroy 0.2% of the state’s surface area. He also observed that more than 2,000 nuclear detonations have been made on the planet without having ended human civilization, and argued that if we want to mitigate the risk posed by nuclear weapons, we must not exaggerate those risks.
Eken’s sanguine approach towards nuclear weapons stands in contrast to the more dramatic rhetoric of global humanitarian catastrophe and existential threats to humanity. So what is the basis for the latter?
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2016/11/01/potential-presidents-men/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">All The (Potential) President&#8217;s Men</a>
<h2>Nuclear war is also a war on the environment</h2>
The greatest concern derives from relatively new research which has modelled the indirect effects of nuclear detonations on the environment and climate. The most-studied scenario is a limited regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan, involving 100 Hiroshima-sized warheads (small by modern standards) detonated mostly over urban areas. Many analysts suggest that this is a <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2015/08/31/the-future-of-land-warfare/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">plausible scenario</a> in the event of <a href="http://www.countercurrents.org/2017/01/24/us-intelligence-national-council-predicts-indo-pakistan-nuclear-war-in-2028/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">an all-out war</a> between the two states, whose combined arsenals amount to more than 220 nuclear warheads.
In this event, an estimated <a href="https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00296197/document" target="_blank" rel="noopener">20m people could die within a week</a> from the direct effects of the explosions, fire, and local radiation. That alone is catastrophic – more deaths than in the entire of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25776836" target="_blank" rel="noopener">World War I</a>.
But nuclear explosions are also extremely likely to ignite fires over a large area, which coalesce and inject large volumes of soot and debris into the stratosphere. In the India-Pakistan scenario, up to 6.5m tonnes of soot could be thrown up into the upper atmosphere, blocking out the sun and causing a significant drop in average surface temperature and precipitation across the globe, with effects that could last for more than a decade.
This ecological disruption would, in turn, badly affect global food production. According to <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-012-0518-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">one study</a>, maize production in the US (the world’s largest producer) would decline by an average by 12% over 10 years in our given scenario. In China, middle season rice would fall by 17% over a decade, maize by 16%, and <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014EF000283/abstract" target="_blank" rel="noopener">winter wheat by 31%</a>. With total world grain reserves amounting to less than 100 days of global consumption, such effects would place an estimated <a href="http://www.ippnw.org/pdf/nuclear-famine-two-billion-at-risk-2013.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2 billion people at risk of famine</a>.
Although a nuclear conflict involving North Korea and the US would be smaller, given Pyongyang’s limited arsenal, many people would still die and ecological damage would severely affect global public health for years. Additionally, any nuclear conflict between the US and North Korea is likely to increase the risk of nuclear confrontation involving other states and other regions of the world.
<h2>It gets worse</h2>
A large-scale nuclear war between the US and Russia would be far worse. Most Russian and US weapons are <a href="http://www.sgr.org.uk/resources/nuclear-weapons-beginner-s-guide-threats#S4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">10 to 50 times stronger</a> than the bombs that destroyed Hiroshima. In a war involving the use of the two nations’ strategic nuclear weapons (those intended to be used away from battlefield, aimed at infrastructure or cities), some 150m tonnes of soot could be lofted into the upper atmosphere. This would <a href="http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockNW2006JD008235.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reduce global temperatures by 8°C</a> – the “nuclear winter” scenario. Under these conditions, food production would stop and the vast majority of the human race is likely to starve.
Eken suggests that both the scenarios of a limited regional nuclear conflict and an all-out war between US and Russia are unlikely. He may be right. However, both scenarios are possible, even if we can’t reliably quantify the risk. Continued adversarial rhetoric from both Donald Trump and <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-threat-of-fire-and-fury-is-a-gift-to-north-koreas-propaganda-machine-82275" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kim Jong-un</a> about the use of nuclear weapons is not making this possibility any smaller.
What we can say, is that the doctrine of nuclear deterrence represents a high-risk gamble. Nuclear weapons do not keep us safe from acts of terrorism, nor can they be used to fight sea level rise, extreme weather, ocean acidification, biodiversity loss or antimicrobial resistance.
This is why so many medical and public health organisations have been campaigning to make nuclear weapons illegal. Regardless of how many need to be exploded to cause a catastrophe or produce an <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-five-biggest-threats-to-human-existence-27053" target="_blank" rel="noopener">existential threat to humanity</a>, and regardless of the risk of this happening, the adage that “prevention is the best cure” remains the case when it comes to these abhorrent and dangerous weapons. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-mccoy-265876" target="_blank" rel="author noopener">David McCoy</a>, Professor of Global Public Health, Queen Mary University of London
Originally published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>
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Tag: Donald Trump

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