Busi Mabuza has just been appointed Chair of the South African chapter of the BRICS Business Council. Also the chairperson of the Industrial Development Corporation, she speaks to FORBES AFRICA about her plans for trade and investment.&nbsp; 



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What is your first point of focus as the chair of the South African chapter of the BRICS Business Council? 



It is still early days. I am just lucky I was appointed to
the BRICS Council last year… In my few months, my sense was that the sister
countries in BRICS were much more organized in terms of what it is they are
looking for and in bringing a coordinated voice of business. We were still
trying to get there in terms of coordinating our efforts and channeling our
objectives and making sure we agree on the priorities.



I look forward to, first of all, picking up from where
others left off. This is a council that has been around not long after 2010,
and it has a long-enough track-record. 



I think where things have been done well, we just need to
make sure they are done better. Where there are gaps, I’d like for us to close
those gaps. On the administrative side, I have noticed our sister countries,
the business councils of the other countries, are much more coercively
organized, more streamlined, business has a very strong voice and business
facilitates all of it. 



I would like to see that engagement with all corners of
business, big and small. I think there is room for everybody there. If one
looks at the African continent, the majority of the population is young people.
If we sit in those meetings without understanding the voice of the youth, without
talking to and addressing the issues of the youth, we will be left behind. 



I think it is an opportunity to make sure business rolls up
its sleeves and we actually benefit from the linkages our political principles
have cemented. 



As a woman in leadership, how will you navigate this space? 



It is one that also challenges me ideologically. I never wanted to be labeled ‘the first black woman [in anything]’, and yet I have worked most of my life in environments where it has been lonely just by the mere fact that when the guys are talking rugby, I want to talk about something else. 



Rugby is great, I also enjoy that, but it is also good to talk about other things. One success factor when one is thrown into such environments is to [bring] others in deliberately. I’d love to demonstrate to the women out there that there are opportunities such as these and we need to be there and we need to show up at our best in terms of our game. 



We need to work diligently because when it comes to the results and output, the assessment won’t be based on whether you are a man or woman, it will be based on what you deliver tangibly. South Africa has an opportunity to make the other BRICS countries aware that women have to be at the table and we do it through our actions rather than just talk. 



What is on the 2019 agenda for business in South Africa?



With this being new days, I believe in consultation. I believe in making sure I understand the mandate I have been given. I understand what the Department of Trade and Industry is about, and their focus on creating export opportunities because that will grow our trade. 



I understand their focus on empowerment, because as a country we do need to see a better profile and reflection of society in the economic space. The focus will continue to be on trade and investment, as we move along, I would like for us to do this in an inclusive manner.



Which sector will South Africa prioritize? 



I would definitely take a cue from the president’s [Cyril Ramaphosa] focus on agriculture. Agriculture is fantastic for this continent because we have land, we have the people and if you look outside South Africa, there is water. The resources are there. 



The other side of the coin is that agriculture can be a great employment opportunity. Agriculture is getting more technical and technology-intensive and that excites me. If we had a trading bloc arrangement, we will be talking much bigger opportunities within the country.

Busi-Mabuza

‘Time For Business To Roll Up Its Sleeves’

On the cards this year? More polls, power struggles and ambitious projects.



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Whichever way one looks at it, 2019 promises Africa a spot
in the limelight like no other.



A record 22 countries, almost half of the continent, will be
asking their citizens for fresh mandates to rule democratically, according to
the Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa. 



By any measure, it’s a big number of politicians submitting
themselves to the will of the people, especially given Africa’s past struggles
with coups and the rule of law.



Whether those polls are conducted freely and fairly is the
next stage in the continent’s drive to improve governance. The Democratic
Republic of the Congo, Africa’s largest country, started the year rolling with
a disputed election that may yet see an historic transfer of power from one
civilian administration to another.



READ MORE | <a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2019/02/10/the-claim-that-democracy-fares-better-in-the-west-than-in-africa-is-a-fallacy/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="The Claim That Democracy Fares Better in the West Than in Africa Is a Fallacy (opens in a new tab)">The Claim That Democracy Fares Better in the West Than in Africa Is a Fallacy</a>



It’s a step seen in only a handful of African countries
since independence in the 1960s, with the likes of Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria,
among others, managing the feat as leaders clung to power by all means
necessary including vote-rigging, outright violence against political opponents
and coups.



The continent’s largest economies, Nigeria and South Africa,
will be among the first to kick-start the process with Nigerians getting the
chance to hand President Muhammadu Buhari another term or hand power to Atiku
Abubakar, a former vice president who was part of Buhari’s alliance when he
first ran in 2015.



In South Africa, expectations are President Cyril
Ramaphosa’s African National Congress will be returned to power with a bigger
mandate. 



Elsewhere around the continent, votes are expected in
countries ranging from Chad to Somaliland but the chances of opposition
victories remain few and far between even as the continent battles a host of
problems from sub-par economic growth to growing indebtedness, particularly to
China.



The World Bank estimates Africa’s economy will grow by 3.6%
this year, but that growth rate masks huge disparities between nations and is
only slightly ahead of its population growth rate of just above 2.5% per annum,
the fastest in the world.



In the meantime, many of its economies are sinking further into debt, just a few years after debt relief that spurred some of the fastest growth the continent had seen in years. 



A 2018 World Bank list of the most indebted countries has South Africa’s 55 million people carrying $792 billion of foreign and local debt, followed by Sudan at $528 billion and Egypt with $299 billion.



But it is the growing debt of some of Africa’s poorest
countries that is beginning to raise concern again. The Overseas Development
Institute last year warned that 40% of sub-Saharan African countries were in
danger of slipping into a debt crisis, adding to warnings by the International
Monetary Fund.



Analysis shows that a fifth of the external debt is held by
China, with another 35% held by multilateral organizations like the World Bank
and another 32% held by private investors. And some of those countries may
begin struggling to pay those loans, according to analysts.



So while there is much to look forward to in 2019, Africa
collectively has lots to do. One ray of hope, is coming from an unlikely
source, the Africa Union (AU). For years, the successor of the Organization of
African Unity has largely remained a political talk-shop, attended mostly by
politicians.



But the last few years have seen change, with economics
beginning to become an integral part of its conversations, culminating in the
launch of the African Continental Free Trade Area last year, an ambitious plan
tying up the continent from the Cape to Cairo.



Building on to that project, was the African Import-Export
Bank, which collaborated with the AU to organize the Intra-African Trade Fair,
the first continent-wide marketplace for goods and services which attracted 42
countries to Cairo, saw some 1,100 exhibitors and more than $33 billion in
deals concluded.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 



If that’s a harbinger of continental resolve to work together, Africa may yet be the place to be in 2019.



Education Quality and the Youth Skills Gap Are Marring Progress in Africa



-Godfrey Mutizwa

NIGERIA-VOTE

2019: Africa’s Year In The Sun

In recent months,&nbsp;various debates&nbsp;about the South African Reserve Bank have focused broadly on three aspects – its shareholding, its mandate and its independence.



The three debates are somewhat convoluted. They are indeed three different issues, but they are interlinked.



Let’s turn to the issue of ownership first.



The South African Reserve Bank is one of&nbsp;only eight central banks&nbsp;in the world with private shareholders. The others are in Belgium, Greece, Italy, Japan, San Marino, Switzerland and Turkey.



The debate about shareholding in South Africa’s Reserve Bank centres around the issue of&nbsp;nationalisation. Some political players, such as the third largest party – the Economic Freedom Fighters – are&nbsp;calling&nbsp;for the ownership of the Bank to be transferred from current private shareholders to the South African government and has tabled a bill in Parliament to achieve this objective.



The issue is very charged. But it’s also confused and not very well understood. There’s an assumption that a change of ownership would automatically mean a change in the role the Bank plays. This isn’t the case because in fact the Bank’s shareholders play no role in its mandate. In that sense it doesn’t matter who the shareholders are. Because they can’t affect its mandate, nationalisation&nbsp;won’t affect&nbsp;the independence of the central bank.



But there are other ways in which the Bank’s ability to do its job can be undermined. This is where the Bank’s&nbsp;primary mandate&nbsp;comes in.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The mandate issue</h2>



The mandate of South Africa’s central bank is set out in the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/constitution-republic-south-africa-1996">Constitution</a>, which says:



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">The primary objective of the Bank shall be to protect the value of the currency of the Republic of South Africa in the interest of balanced and sustainable economic growth in the Republic.</blockquote>



The Bank also adheres to an inflation target which was&nbsp;<a href="https://www.resbank.co.za/MonetaryPolicy/DecisionMaking/Pages/default.aspx">put in place</a>&nbsp;in 2000. This requires it to keep inflation within a band of 3% to 6%. The Bank uses monetary policy and interest rate decisions to achieve this objective. In short, when the inflationary trend declines, the interest rate declines and when the inflationary trend increases, the interest rate increases.



The issue of the Bank’s focus on keeping inflation within this band – and the fact that its mandate sets out clearly that managing inflation is it’s core job – is hotly contested.



Those on the left of the political spectrum, including the country’s largest trade union federation,&nbsp;argue&nbsp;that the South African Reserve Bank shouldn’t focus primarily on inflation. Instead, they say, it should also be taking account of economic growth as well as the employment rate in the country.



The Bank’s response has been that its current mandate is broad enough because it says quite clearly that, while managing inflation, it must do so “in the interest of balanced and sustainable economic growth in the Republic”.



For those like myself who oppose a broader mandate, the issue is quite simple: giving the Bank a broader mandate raises the danger that the Bank will take its eye off inflation because it’s having to concentrate on other issues. This, in turn, could lead to rampant inflation.



The Bank’s mandate is crucial in another respect. The SA Reserve Bank’s ability to pursue its mandate without interference from government is how its independence is measured.



South Africa’s central bank has acted on the whim of politicians before. It didn’t end well.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">How political interference can hurt</h2>



In the 1980s inflation rose dramatically, resulting in the country suffering its&nbsp;highest inflation&nbsp;rates ever: on average about 15% per year for the decade.



Despite the fact that rising prices called for the Bank to act by raising interest rates, it failed to do so on instructions of the government. Inflation wreaked havoc on the earnings of ordinary South Africans, as well as on the value of people’s pensions.



The government’s interference was dramatically brought to light ahead of a by-election in 1984 in a Johannesburg suburb called Primrose. Just prior to the by-election the government instructed the South African Reserve Bank to drop the interest rate. This subsequently became known as the&nbsp;Primrose Prime incident.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Where the focus should be</h2>



The debates swirling around the central bank have&nbsp;created uncertainty. This is despite&nbsp;reassurances&nbsp;from South African President Cyril Ramaphosa.



The President needs to do more: he also needs to establish certainty about the executive management of the South African Reserve Bank.



An executive vacancy at the central bank, created by the&nbsp;resignation&nbsp;of one of the Deputy Governors, Francois Groepe, must be filled as a matter of urgency. And the President should make clear his intention to reappoint the Governor, Lesetja Kganyago, and the Deputy Governor, Daniel Mminele, whose terms expire this year.



These appointments are under the purview of the President. The SA Reserve Bank Act&nbsp;stipulates&nbsp;that the President must fill executive positions after consultation with the Minister of Finance and the Bank’s board.



South Africa needs stability at the central bank to ensure a growth trajectory for the country. The President should get the process of filling the vacancy and providing certainty about the future of Kganyago and Mminele underway sooner rather than later. -The Conversation



-Jannie Rossouw: Head of School of Economic &amp; Business Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand



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South African Reserve Bank Rate Announcement Ahead Of Stimulus Plan

Explainer: South Africa’s Central Bank – Ownership, Mandate and Independence

Tito Mboweni inherits Africa’s recession-hit country as president Cyril Ramaphosa chases growth.

If the performance of South Africa’s currency in the week since Tito Mboweni was picked as finance minister is any good, Africa’s only economy in official recession might be on to a good thing.
The rand, Africa’s most freely-traded currency, gained more than 5% against the dollar in the week since the former central bank governor replaced Nhlanhla Nene who quit after lying about his dealings with a business family, the Guptas, accused of bribing government officials including former President Jacob Zuma.
The former labor minister brings a no-nonsense approach analysts say will be needed to take Africa’s second-largest economy out of a largely self-inflicted second recession in less than a decade amid graft allegations. He will need to rein in government spending, six months before elections that may drop the ruling African National Congress’ (ANC) support below half for the first time since the dawn of democracy in 1994.
“Fiercely independent and often regarded as a bit of a maverick, Mr Mboweni is nevertheless likely to emerge as one of Mr Ramaphosa’s more inspired decisions,’’ says Gary van Staden, analyst at Cape Town-based NKC Research.
<blockquote>“He is certainly among the more highly-regarded choices the president could have made and we expect him to add momentum to the decisions of the job summit and economic stimulus package.’’</blockquote>
Mboweni served four years as labor minister in former President Nelson Mandela’s government where he developed the first post-apartheid labor law. At the South African Reserve Bank, where he was the country’s first black governor, Mboweni spent a decade, and built a reputation as a conservative banker and defender of the country’s newly-adopted inflation-targeting regime.
His major achievement was building the country’s foreign exchange reserves from less than $10 billion to $40 billion when he left in 2009 after two terms deemed by most as successful.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/woman/2018/06/16/one-on-one-with-naledi-pandor-sa-minister-of-higher-education/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: One on One With Naledi Pandor SA Minister of Higher Education</a>
“The economy is now in a safe pair of hands. It is someone senior both in the ANC and in the government as he served as a minister of labor previously. What is also important is we have ratings agencies watching us and this will bode well for them,’’ says independent economist Mike Schussler.
Mboweni takes charge of an economy that was in recession in the first six months of the year, hobbled by nine years of poor management under Zuma which left business confidence shattered. With the economy barely growing during the period, the country lost its investment grade rating from Standard &amp; Poor’s (S&amp;P) and Fitch Ratings.
Only Moody’s maintained its rating above junk and the company deferred a decision after Mboweni’s appointment, fanning hopes it will give him time to mend the country’s finances and present a credible growth plan.
But economists say it might be too late for a country that needs to cut spending while chasing economic growth.
“I am afraid we have overplayed our hand on the numbers,’’ says Dawie Roodt, an economist at Efficient Group in Johannesburg.
“The fiscal numbers are unsustainable and the debt numbers in particular are terrible. From a numbers point of view, I am afraid this is a downgrade.’’
The new minister has a full problem tray as he comes in: unemployment is sitting at 27.2% as companies grapple with soaring costs inflated by a weak rand, falling government revenues in a country where 17 million people depend on government grants, and weak business confidence.
But his appointment may provide the turning point the country desperately requires, according to Van Staden.
“The former Reserve Bank governor can be a difficult personality, but his skillset and deep understanding of financial markets are likely to see him embrace a market-orientated policy framework with a no-nonsense attitude and dedication to economic growth and social development. We expect the appointment to have a positive impact on the credibility of the Ramaphosa administration.’’
It is credibility Ramaphosa has been building and one he will need quickly, according to Ravi Bhatia, a director at S&amp;P which rates the country’s debt junk with a stable outlook. Its next rating decision is scheduled to be announced on November 23.
“He will have to get up to speed quite quickly,’’ Bhatia said pointing to the country’s Medium Term Budget Policy statement released in October. “He will have to push through measures that will deliver growth. We want to see growth being delivered and the fiscal line being controlled.’’
&#8211; Godfrey Mutizwa

Tito Mboweni sworn in as new finance minister in South Africa

Could Tito Mboweni Be The Turning Point?

It’s 7AM on July 17, a day before Nelson Mandela’s 100th birthday, and Corlett Drive, the road leading to The Wanderers Cricket Stadium in Johannesburg, is a sea of cars.
At least 15,000 people are expected to pour into it today, to hear one former president speak about another. Obama on Mandela. Both names big enough to draw generations of South Africans together to the stadium – and others from abroad – on a cold week day.
“I forgot it was winter in South Africa,” began Barack Obama, instantly warming up to the audience that welcomes him with a thunderous applause.
The former US president is here for the 16th Nelson Mandela Annual Lecture, the biggest ever, timed aptly with the centenary celebrations of the former apartheid struggle hero.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2018/07/18/the-power-humour-and-anger-of-mandela/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: The Power, Humour And Anger Of Mandela</a>
<div id="attachment_37017" style="width: 310px" class="wp-caption alignright"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-37017" class="wp-image-37017 size-medium" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Obama-lecture-02-300x200.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="200" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Obama-lecture-02-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Obama-lecture-02-600x400.jpg 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Obama-lecture-02-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Obama-lecture-02-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Obama-lecture-02.jpg 1902w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />(From Left) Foundation Chairperson Professor Njabulo Ndebele, Graça Machel, President Cyril Ramaphosa, Former US President Barack Obama and Dr Patrice Motsepe. Photo By Gypseenia Lion.</div>
The theme? ‘Renewing the Mandela Legacy and Promoting Active Citizenship in a Changing World’, focusing on creating conditions for bridging divides, working across ideological lines, and resisting oppression and inequality.
“The presence of each and every one here is living proof that the legacy and spirit of Nelson Mandela is alive,” says FORBES billionaire Patrice Motsepe, also founder and CEO of the Motsepe Foundation behind the event, before Obama’s address.
In the audience are recognizable faces, everyone from politicians past and present to billionaire businessmen (Mandela’s long-time friend Richard Branson), movie stars (Charlize Theron), kings and traditional leaders.
The stadium fully represents Mandela’s Rainbow Nation.
<div id="attachment_37016" style="width: 750px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-37016" class="wp-image-37016 size-large" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Obama-lecture-05-1024x683.jpg" alt="" width="740" height="494" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Obama-lecture-05-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Obama-lecture-05-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Obama-lecture-05-600x400.jpg 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Obama-lecture-05-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Obama-lecture-05.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 740px) 100vw, 740px" />The Soweto Gospel Choir. Photo by Motlabana Monnakgotla.</div>
“I am here to see Obama, hopefully I will get a good shot of him. Most importantly, I am here to find out what he has in store for us [South Africa], what he thinks about how we are doing outside the country and his views on how we can take our country forward,” says excited guest Asanda Mokoena.
A few hundred metres from the pitch is a car park for attendees like Mokoena. It is a hive of activity. Vehicles, big and small, scramble about for parking space.
Queues form at the gates hours before.
Inside the stadium, loud laughter and banter. Precious photos reminiscing Mandela and recording Obama. “Yes we can, yes we can, yes we can,” the crowd chants.
<div id="attachment_37011" style="width: 310px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-37011" class="size-medium wp-image-37011" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Obama-lecture-04-300x200.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="200" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Obama-lecture-04-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Obama-lecture-04-600x400.jpg 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Obama-lecture-04-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Obama-lecture-04-1024x682.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Obama-lecture-04.jpg 1985w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />Attendees shield their faces from the afternoon sun. Photo by Motlabana Monnakgotla</div>
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who calls Obama to the podium, also receives a standing ovation, the crowds singing and cheering for him.
Democratic Alliance leader Mmusi Maimane is in the audience.
“We are living in a global society in which the values of freedom are under threat and it is important that people who believe in individual rights, the market-based economy, the freedoms of people, must stand together and advance the values of Nelson Mandela. So I would hope that today is about advancing the value of non-racialism, and reconcile society, then ultimately, a global world on those values can be established,” says Maimane, walking to the VIP area before the event.
Mandela shone brightly. Says Graça Machel, the former president’s widow, on stage, “these occasions make him very happy”, also drawing parallels between Mandela and Obama, portraying them as “symbols of victory over adversity”.
“It should make us hopeful..,” says Obama in his address. “Ultimately, Mandela came to signify something more&#8230;He came to embody the universal aspirations of people all around the world.
“We have to start by admitting that whatever laws may have existed on the books, whatever wonderful pronouncements existed in constitutions, whatever nice words were spoken these last decades at international conferences or in the halls of the United Nations, the previous structures of power and privilege and injustice and exploitation never completely went away…
“I believe in a vision of equality and justice and freedom and multi-racial democracy built on the premise that all people are created equal and they&#8217;re endowed by our creator certain inalienable rights. And I believe that a world governed by such principles is possible and that it can achieve more peace and more cooperation and pursuit of a common good,&#8221; says Obama, also touching on the politics of fear and the recent chaos in the world.
As the winter sun comes down, and at the end of Obama’s impassioned 90-minute address, the audience is suitably invigorated.
South African actor and presenter, Thapelo Mokoena, says this is a much-needed reminder of the values and sacrifice of Mandela.
<div id="attachment_37012" style="width: 310px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-37012" class="wp-image-37012 size-medium" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Obama-lecture-01-300x200.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="200" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Obama-lecture-01-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Obama-lecture-01-600x400.jpg 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Obama-lecture-01-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Obama-lecture-01-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Obama-lecture-01.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />Thapelo Mokoena, Actor. Photo by Gypseenia Lion.</div>
<blockquote>“Just like art has a way of reminding us who we are and where we are from, this contributes to that. As an artist, this means the entire world and I can tell the story for many years to come,” he says.</blockquote>
“I just feel it is very opportune for us as South Africans to reflect on the kind of leadership that we want to bring into our own lives,” says Tinashe Zigomo, another audience member.
As the crowds leave, they take with them revitalized reflections on Mandela and lessons from Obama.
&#8211; By Ancillar Mangena and Gypseenia Lion

Obama-lecture-03

Obama The Orator; The Mandela Lecture

Many of the thousands of delegates at Davos, Switzerland, wonder how long this gathering of the world’s elite can go on in its present form, in what must be one of the world’s strangest locations for an economic conference. It must have looked a great venue, albeit from left field, when it was planned here back in 1971, but then again gas guzzling cars and Richard Nixon also seemed a good idea at the time. The face of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos is changing. In the last decade, the number of delegates from countries like Germany and Britain has fallen, while those from China have increased by 283% and Russia by 57%.
One of the big hitters at this year’s Davos was Narendra Modi, who became the first Indian prime minister to attend in 20 years. He made a stentorian speech defending globalization, criticizing protectionism and urging swift action over climate change. Surely, it is only a matter of time before WEF will be hosted by emerging markets like India, Russia and China.
Davos, a small village in the Alps of eastern Switzerland, is perfect for skiing and even better for taking photographs for a Christmas card – the snow-topped forests cascading down the steep mountainsides are a wonder to behold; the crisp air is as refreshing as a cool drink on a hot day. It is a place where you can clear your head, in seconds, with a lung full of Alpine air.
Yet, as the years wear on, it looks ill-suited for the gathering of the clans of globalization. Thousands of delegates and heads of state from 70 countries, plus more billionaires and business owners than you can poke a stick at, packed out the village this year. Throughout the day, you could see European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and his cohorts picking through the snow, or highly-paid executives slipping on the ice, or Bill Gates sliding through the sludge as the long, cold Alpine night gripped the streets.
Most of the people who live in Davos threw their hands up years ago in the face of the annual invasion by the suited elite. They rent out their homes and flee to better climes. It is a good job that they do because in WEF week Davos is bursting at the seams. This year the traffic jammed around the conference; security was as high as the mountains, with soldiers and police everywhere; there were more snipers on the roof than there were golf carts on the ground transporting delegates over the packed snow the like of which many people in Davos said they hadn’t seen for years. The heavy snow was a reminder that extreme weather and natural disasters were the top concern among delegates this year, according to a WEF survey, followed by cyberattacks and data theft.
One of the reasons for the tight security, in this crowded village, was the visit of the controversial leader of the free world Donald Trump. It was a surprise visit to say the least; for years Trump derided the intellectual globalists of WEF. Now he wanted to come and sell his “America First” policy as the first US president to set foot in Davos since Bill Clinton in 2000. Along with an 827-strong US delegation – out of 3,000 delegates – he came to laud his tax cuts and reforms that delivered growth, forecast at 2.7%, this year, a fillip for the world economy after a decade of torpid growth.
It is a bright spot, on a brighter horizon, unveiled by the great and the good at Davos. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts global growth of 3.9% this year and next; 0.2% higher than expected thanks to US tax cuts and a sterling performance from emerging economies like Russia and Brazil. Better, but no time for complacency says IMF head Christine Lagarde, who wants to push growth harder by cracking down on tax evasion and corruption.
“When the sun is shining it is time to fix the roof,” says Lagarde. “Or when the snow stops it is time to clear the road. That is how it seems to work in Davos.”
Despite this glimmer of hope you get the feeling optimism is running out at WEF. For a start, you could argue that Trump’s strident one-nation populism – that appears to have spread to a score of other countries – is one reason why the liberal WEF ethos of working together to ease investment and fix the world is struggling to stay afloat.
“It is America First meets We are the World,” quipped the Wall Street Journal on the eve of the visit.
<div id="attachment_35580" style="width: 391px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-35580" class=" wp-image-35580" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Donald-Trump-WEF-e1520928622889-300x194.jpg" alt="" width="381" height="246" />US President Donald Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland (Photo by Getty Images)</div>
Before Trump set foot in Davos, he ruffled feathers with disparaging remarks about Africa. Many of the African delegates told me they were going to boycott his speech in protest.
“There has never been a better time to hire, to build, to invest and to grow in the United States,” says Trump in his speech that this time took a swipe at the press instead of Africa.
“It wasn’t until I became a politician, that I realized how nasty, how mean, how vicious and how fake the press can be.”
If you want to get an idea of how far Africa is under the US radar right now, you should have been at the press briefing held by the urbane US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. I asked about the future of Power Africa under the Trump administration; a fair question given the America First policy and the power plan’s origins. It is a legacy of Barack Obama and aims to blend US aid with private investment to create 30,000MW of electricity, enough to power an industrialized nation like South Africa. The fast-talking US lobby correspondents whipped around to look at me as if I had asked the source of the Zambezi.
“It is still going. We have created about 400MW in Ghana, which it not even 1%. But we are going to visit in the second quarter,” says the Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross without much interest.
I was encouraged by Nigerian multi-millionaire Tony Elumelu who later assured me African investors would see Power Africa through.
Contrast that with the fire and enthusiasm of one of Africa’s future leaders who saw WEF as a stage to launch his campaign to clean up his country and bring back investors. Cyril Ramaphosa, the man set to be the next president of South Africa if the African National Congress wins the 2019 elections, is already behaving with that statesmanlike assurance of power. In many ways he was Africa’s man of the moment at Davos.
It was not always so. For more than a quarter of a century the lawyer-activist, who founded the biggest union in Africa, the National Union of Mineworkers, was the nearly man of South African politics. He nearly became deputy to Nelson Mandela in 1994 and went off to business instead. Now he is on the cusp of real political power and appears to respect this.
With a ready, beaming smile that could melt the Davos snow, Ramaphosa has a deft common touch. On the cold night we sat for dinner in Davos, Ramaphosa staged a charm offensive for the gathering of millionaires and a number of South Africa’s most powerful CEOs. These are among the people he needs to win over if the country’s economy is to slip back into gear. The sad story of the last year has been downgrades to junk status by the ratings agencies and minuscule growth from the once cooking, commodity-rich South African economy.
Avuncular and cracking jokes, the future president changed seats over and over again until he had spoken to everyone on the long table. It was more like a South African wedding than a formal dinner at which he hammered home his anti-corruption message.
“There are no holy cows. Anyone who is caught doing wrong things will end up behind the bars of a jail,” says Ramaphosa.
Most of the business types agreed that this was what they wanted to hear after years of economic struggle and a host of corruption scandals. Ramaphosa has been busy since his ascent, prompting corruption investigations and the freezing of assets. It was enough to send the rand soaring above 12 to the dollar, which warmed many South African delegates in the snow.
Ramaphosa helped the rand further by telling the world that the nuclear power deal – that the present incumbent is pushing – is off the table for now because it is too expensive. He also promised to sort out the disputed Mining Charter – the document that guides efforts to increase black ownership of the mines; uncertainty and court challenges over rushed amendments to the document have choked investment.
<div id="attachment_35581" style="width: 392px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-35581" class=" wp-image-35581" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Cyril-Ramaphosa-WEF-e1520928824721-300x200.jpg" alt="" width="382" height="254" />South Africa&#8217;s President Cyril Ramaphosa at the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland (Photo by Getty Images)</div>
In all, according to Ramaphosa and finance minister Malusi Gigaba, their utterances at Davos had unlocked hundreds of millions of dollars from investors in South Africa who were holding back because of concern about corruption and political uncertainty. Ramaphosa believes the ratings agencies are likely to give South Africa a better score when he meets with them.
“We are going home happy with bags full of millions of dollars of promises from investors,” says Ramaphosa with a smile before he flew home.
Most around the dinner table in Davos agreed that Ramaphosa’s words were fine as a starter, but wanted to see the main course.
Elsewhere in Africa, Nigerian entrepreneur and former FORBES AFRICA cover Tonye Cole, the co-founder of the Sahara Group, was as optimistic as ever.
“Africa will play a role. The world has to look at Africa as the last place to make a difference and they will do that,” says Cole.
Rwanda was in fine fettle, according to its finance minister Claver Gatete in Davos, with 8% growth expected this year on the back of increasing exports – a rate that most countries in the world would do anything for right now.
“We are trying to remain an open and attractive economy,” says Gatete.
Nigeria, after years of suffering under falling oil prices and the decline of the naira, is looking up at long last. Growth is expected to be 1.4% this year, according to Vice President Yemi Osinbajo. Also expected is a 40% increase in exports, and better revenues from oil.
“It is a bullish period for us in terms of attracting business and we are excited,” says Osinbajo.
The words of hope that said it all for Africa on one cold Swiss afternoon came from South Africa’s Reserve Bank Governor, the tall and enthusiastic Lesetja Kganyago.
“This time last year I was pleading with investors to keep confidence in South Africa and keep their money in the country. This year I do not have enough time in the day to meet people who want to put their money into the country,” says a smiling Kganyago.
Bring on the main course – we’re hungry.

Africa Left In The Cold

Africa’s most robust and developed economy is on the cusp of an economic revival after the long-awaited change of guard at the top.
South Africa’s economy has struggled against downgrades by the ratings agencies and a flight of foreign investors in several difficult years that have left the country with miniscule growth.
The big obstacle to change was President Jacob Zuma whose unpopularity and poor management of the economy, amid clouds of corruption allegations, threatened to bury the once all powerful African National Congress (ANC). In the good times, a decade ago, when the economy was growing at a healthy 5%, the leaders of the ANC boasted they would rule until Jesus came back. The penny slowly dropped for the party faithful that if economic times got steadily harder, feeding a rising opposition, the party may struggle to rule until the end of the next elections in 2019.
Pressure for change came from even the most die-hard ANC members for Zuma to resign. He refused; the party bigwigs gave him a deadline and at the eleventh hour, just before midnight on February 14, he did so live on TV. In many ways, he had little choice; his party comrades were plotting to throw him out through a humiliating vote of no confidence in Parliament, in Cape Town, also live on TV. He would also have lost his pension, security and benefits in the process.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2018/02/15/zumas-time-mean-south-africa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Zuma&#8217;s time is up &#8211; but does it mean for South Africa</a>
For a former head of intelligence, Zuma appeared strangely out of touch with what people were thinking.
“What have I done?” was his reaction to the decision by the ANC to recall him. A cursory flick through the business pages of the newspapers would have told him: Job losses and unemployment running at more than one in four; falling business confidence and tales of millions of taxpayers’ money slushing into private pockets rather than public projects.
Into the breach stepped Cyril Ramaphosa, the former deputy president who was sworn in as the country’s new leader, in Cape Town on February 15, with a promise to clean up and pep up the economy. He is seen as the business friendly president and a pragmatic negotiator with vast experience from the picket line to the boardroom.
“Issues to do with corruption, issues of how we can straighten out our state-owned enterprises and how we deal with ‘state capture’ are issues that are on our radar screen,” says Ramaphosa as he was elected as president, unopposed, in Parliament.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/08/16/lack-accountability-marikana-says-zumas-government/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: What the lack of accountability for Marikana says about Zuma&#8217;s government</a>
Many of the business leaders I have spoken to, from Davos to Johannesburg, agree that if Ramaphosa turns his words into action they will invest with confidence.
“You are going to see millions of dollars flooding into this country in the next six months,” says Gary Booysen of Rand Swiss in Johannesburg.
The markets appeared to agree and surged with the rand. The currency reached highs not seen since May 2015, the last halcyon days of the economy. Three days of madness, in December 2015, put paid to that when Zuma sacked respected finance minister, Nhanlha Nene, replaced him with rookie Des Van Rooyen the next day and him, under duress, with former finance minister Pravin Gordhan the day after. The president sacked Gordhan in March 2017 and replaced him with another rookie Malusi Gigaba – the rand and confidence plunged, as did the ratings.
Ramaphosa – a multi-millionaire who has made his money from black empowerment and shrewd business decisions – wants a legacy of being the man who helped his country out of the mire. He has deep roots in the liberation movement and anyone who knows him will tell you he would want to be remembered as the best leader of his country since Nelson Mandela.
Anyone who has their money and pension tied up in South Africa will hope that he does so.

Zuma’s gone. Let’s go!

South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) is mired in a serious leadership crisis, and President Jacob Zuma faces an ignominious end to his political career. The 74-year-old has refused to take responsibility amid corruption and conspiracy charges. Having been <a href="https://theconversation.com/cyril-ramaphosa-prepares-to-confront-south-africas-bleak-future-89410" target="_blank" rel="noopener">replaced as party president by Cyril Ramaphosa</a> in December 2017, he faced the choice between resigning or taking his chances with a no-confidence vote in parliament. After days of mouting pressure, he <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-43066443" target="_blank" rel="noopener">finally walked</a>.
The whole episode carries more than an echo of recent events in neighbouring Zimbabwe, where a bloodless military coup removed President Robert Mugabe but left his ruling ZANU-PF party in power, while the coup’s leaders were rewarded with cabinet posts.
The global public seems glued to every move in South Africa’s political drama. But is the attention actually warranted? Is the country really at one of its most momentous crossroads yet? That will only be clear with hindsight.
Perhaps Zuma’s removal will help transform South Africa’s political culture and regenerate the ANC, which is still stuck in its old anti-apartheid/Mandela mode. If it revives the ruling party and ends the era of old men clinging to power and acting with impunity, Zuma’s departure will be one of the great Rubicons in South Africa’s post-apartheid history.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/21/lessons-south-africas-jacob-zuma-robert-mugabes-misfortunes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Lessons for South Africa&#8217;s Jacob Zuma in Robert Mugabe&#8217;s misfortunes</a>
<h2>Falling short</h2>
Just before the 1994 elections, ANC activist <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/ns-interview-albie-sachs-lawyer-and-anti-apartheid-campaigner" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Albie Sachs</a> declared that the ANC had at best two terms in power to bring electricity and running water to the majority of South Africans and to address the inequality in educational, health and infrastructural services. Any longer, he said, and young South Africans would start to challenge its authority.
To give the party its due, what has been achieved is remarkable. It is easy to forget just how momentous the country’s problems were when the ANC took power in 1994. Given it started with one of the world’s largest gaps between the wealthy (at that time almost exclusively “white”) and the poor (almost exclusively of colour), post-apartheid South Africa has been tremendously successful in creating a stable and solid <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/178079/how-big-south-africas-black-middle-class-is-and-why-the-anc-are-concerned/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">black middle class</a>.
The party had to try and refashion the country on all levels – political, economic, social, cultural – and in some ways, it has made great strides. While it has its many critics, the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of the late 1990s helped the nation start to move on from one of the most intense protracted experiences of racial discrimination in recent history.
But some of the deep problems apartheid wrought are anything but solved: millions <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2017/08/22/more-than-half-of-south-africans-living-in-poverty-stats-sa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">still live in poverty</a>, and levels of violent crime (notably sexual violence) are <a href="https://africacheck.org/factsheets/south-africas-crime-statistics-201617/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">strikingly high</a>. All the while, many among the ANC’s elite (not least Zuma himself) have conspicuously accrued tremendous wealth, and their extravagance has become a significant problem for the party’s legitimacy. But instead of cleaning house or changing its ways, the ANC has over and over again chosen to fall back on its victory against apartheid and the memory of its most famous member, Nelson Mandela.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2016/12/01/zuma-thief-must-voetsek/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: &#8216;Zuma The Thief Must Voetsek&#8217;</a>
<h2>Behind the figleaf</h2>
In 2013, a month before Mandela passed away, the South African High Commission in London hosted the exhibition “We Love Mandela”, which included a <a href="https://www.enca.com/life/mandela-portrayed-jesus-last-supper" target="_blank" rel="noopener">painting</a> by South African artist Simon Dean entitled “The Last Supper”. It portrays Mandela as Jesus, surrounded by an astonishing cadre of “disciples” – from Desmond Tutu, Mohandas Gandhi, Martin Luther King, and the Ethiopian Emperor Haile Selassie.
This sort of Mandela-worship has been the party’s figleaf, and a useful device for silencing opposition, criticism, and calls for change. For far too long, it kept the party safe enough from electoral humiliation that Zuma remained secure in his office. But underneath it all, the political crisis that now confronts both the ANC and South Africa writ large has been brewing for years, and Zuma’s demise is long overdue.
To judge by the coverage outside South Africa, with the global public glued to every turn in this political drama, one might think Zuma’s demise had come from nowhere, and that it is guaranteed to change the country for good. But in reality, nothing new has come to light in some time. The latest investigation into his connections with corrupt interests began with <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2013-05-07-the-beginners-guide-to-the-guptas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">exposés</a> by the South African Mail &amp; Guardian newspaper in 2013. Most of the assorted corruption charges against Zuma predate his presidency, as does the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/10/khwezi-woman-accused-jacob-zuma-south-african-president-aids-activist-fezekile-ntsukela-kuzwayo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">controversial rape case against him</a> in 2005-6.
Zuma’s presumptive successor, Cyril Ramaphosa, <a href="https://theconversation.com/cyril-ramaphosa-prepares-to-confront-south-africas-bleak-future-89410" target="_blank" rel="noopener">is not exactly the embodiment of radical change</a>. But Ramaphosa will have the chance to finally seize the impetus for a true political transformation – to find a way of tackling poverty, violence and discrimination while reforming the ANC from top to bottom.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91873/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />Only if that happens will the end of Zuma really turn out to be the moment of transformation much of the world thinks it is guaranteed to be. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/heike-schmidt-444690" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Heike Schmidt</a>, Associate Professor in Modern African History, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-reading-902">University of Reading</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

Zuma’s time is up – but what does it mean for South Africa?

A plethora of people are gathered inside the Nasrec Expo Centre in Johannesburg, all draped in regalia of the 106-year-old African National Congress (ANC), South Africa’s ruling party.
The crowd of more than 5,000 moves like a multi-headed beast, chanting South Africa’s struggle songs. The head of this beast can be found in a song that keeps creeping up in many parts of this crowd.
“Unity maqabane, ixesha lisondele,” goes the song, which loosely translates to “unity comrades, the time has come.”
This is moments before the African National Congress, the oldest liberation movement on the continent, makes one of the biggest decisions in more than a century of struggle and campaigning in Africa. It is about to elect who is going to lead it out of its most difficult time in democratic South Africa.
In a few moments, the ANC will choose who will replace President Jacob Zuma, a man who has ruffled feathers from the boardrooms to the streets.
Even before he took office, Zuma faced 783 counts of corruption. Around $20 million of taxpayers’ money was used to upgrade his private home in Nkandla, even though he is paying back some of it. His relationship with the Gupta family has cast a shadow over his presidency. The economy has undoubtedly taken a huge dip under his leadership, with unemployment rising and investments falling.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/21/lessons-south-africas-jacob-zuma-robert-mugabes-misfortunes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Lessons for South Africa&#8217;s Jacob Zuma in Robert Mugabe&#8217;s misfortunes</a>
At Nasrec, as the mood of the people swirls in different currents, dark uncertainty is visible on their faces. Factionalism is at its worse within the ANC, with the party split between two candidates.
The first is business-minded ANC Deputy President, Cyril Ramaphosa, who many believe should be next in line, claiming it is party tradition. The unions, however, say he is too capitalist.
The other is Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, a veteran parliamentarian and former chairperson of the African Union Commission. She is the first female ANC member gunning for the party’s top position. Many however say she is too close to President Zuma, her former husband.
Months of campaigning, factionalism, infighting and party slates have all boiled down to this moment. After a period of uncertainty and songs blaring from every corner, EleXions Agency, the facilitators of the voting process, take to the stage to put the masses here out of their misery.
Ramaphosa emerges as the new ANC president by a whisker. A mere 179 votes separates him from Dlamini-Zuma, after almost 5,000 delegates cast their votes.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2016/12/01/zuma-thief-must-voetsek/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: &#8216;Zuma The Thief Must Voetsek&#8217;</a>
The top six positions of the ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) are also closely contested, with the outcome split between supporters of Ramaphosa and Dlamini-Zuma. Is this the unity outcome that’s often crept up in songs here, or will this cause further division within the self-confessed corruption-riddled party?
“It’s an interesting outcome but it’s an outcome that’s organizational. I think that’s what the ANC needs, where we pull everyone together under one roof and make it a point that people work together as a collective, cohere and move forward,” says recently elected ANC Eastern Cape Chairman, Oscar Mabuyane.
Fikile Mbalula, the newly-elected NEC member, and staunch supporter of Dlamini-Zuma, preaches unity after the battle.
“The conference is over, we have one president and not two. Cyril Ramaphosa is my president and we are going to work nicely together,” says Mbalula, who is also South Africa’s Minister of Police.
Some, however, aren’t taking kindly to the outcome. Bathabile Dlamini, the President of the ANC Women’s League, lambastes the new leadership. The Women’s League had thrown its weight behind Dlamini-Zuma in the hope that she’d become the first woman to lead the ANC in its history.
“This is an attack on women’s struggles. We have been dealt a blow and want to call on all women to stand together,” says Dlamini.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/12/19/anc-new-leader-south-africa-remains-political-precipice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: The ANC has a new leader but South Africa remains on a political precipice</a>
Jesse Duarte is the only woman in the top six – coincidentally contesting for her position against another woman.
Business tycoon and former Gauteng Premier, Tokyo Sexwale, who is also concerned by the lack of women in the top six, gave words of warning on tackling corruption within the ANC.
“When you become president of the country [one day], make sure you have the long arm of the law reach out to criminals. Start with criminals who are trying to hide under Cyril’s umbrella, because that’s how they corrupt the situation. Before you steal from Eskom, SAA and so on, you’ve got to corrupt the ANC. So deal with them decisively first,” says Sexwale, who was once named alongside Ramaphosa and Mathews Phosa in a plot aimed at toppling then president, Thabo Mbeki, in 2001.
A thorny issue for the new ANC leadership, which includes the 80 NEC members, are the growing calls to recall outgoing ANC president, Zuma, from the presidency of South Africa.
In his closing speech at the conference, Ramaphosa, emphasizes the need for a public office that wouldn’t serve vested interests, but build a truly developmental state.
“Our people will judge this conference not only by what we have done here over these past five days, but perhaps more importantly, they will judge it by what we do next. The people of South Africa want action.”
Will Ramaphosa be able to deliver this action? Time will tell.

‘The People Want Action’

Rumours that President Jacob Zuma has instructed the South African National Defence Force to draw up plans for implementing a <a href="https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1756940/sa-presidency-rejects-reports-of-state-of-emergency-regulations-draft/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">state of emergency</a> may or may not be true. Nonetheless they are evidence of South Africa’s febrile political atmosphere.
But any assumption that <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/anc-conference/anc54-breaking-ramaphosa-elected-anc-president-12453127" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the election</a> of <a href="https://www.forbes.com/profile/cyril-ramaphosa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cyril Ramaphosa</a> as the new leader of the African National Congress (ANC), after winning the race against Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, will place South Africa on an even keel are misplaced. Indeed, the drama may only be beginning.
It’s useful to look back to 2007 when President Thabo Mbeki unwisely ran for a <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/i-asked-mbeki-to-stand-for-a-third-term-to-stop-zuma-kasrils-20171108" target="_blank" rel="noopener">third term as ANC leader</a>. His unpopularity among large segments of the party provided the platform for his <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/Politics/Zuma-sweeps-to-resounding-victory-20071218" target="_blank" rel="noopener">defeat by Zuma</a> at Polokwane. Within a few months the National Executive Committee of the ANC latched onto an <a href="http://www.saflii.org/za/cases/ZAKZHC/2008/71.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">excuse</a> to ask Mbeki to <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/thabo-mbeki-resigns-south-africa%E2%80%99s-second-democratic-president" target="_blank" rel="noopener">stand down as president of the country</a> before the end of his term of office. Being committed to the traditions of party loyalty he complied, resigning as president some eight months before the Constitution required him to do so.
The question this raises is whether South Africa should now expect a repeat performance following the election of a new leader of the ANC. Will this lead to a party instruction to Zuma to stand down as president of the country? And if it does, will he do what Mbeki did and meekly resign?
There’s a big difference between the two scenarios: Mbeki had no reason to fear the consequences of leaving office. Zuma, on the other hand, has numerous reasons to cling to power. This is what makes him, and the immediate future, dangerous for South Africa, and suggests the country faces instability.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/21/lessons-south-africas-jacob-zuma-robert-mugabes-misfortunes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Lessons for South Africa&#8217;s Jacob Zuma in Robert Mugabe&#8217;s misfortunes</a>
<h2>Why Zuma won’t go</h2>
It is not out of the question that Zuma may say to himself, and to South Africa, that he is not going anywhere. He is losing <a href="https://theconversation.com/dramatic-night-in-south-africa-leaves-president-hanging-on-by-a-thread-57180" target="_blank" rel="noopener">court case</a> after <a href="https://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21732538-judges-keep-finding-against-south-africas-embattled-president-jacob-zuma-loses-two" target="_blank" rel="noopener">court case</a>, and judicial decisions are increasingly narrowing his legal capacity to block official and independent investigations into the extent of <a href="http://ewn.co.za/Topic/State-Capture" target="_blank" rel="noopener">state capture</a> by business interests close to him.
With every passing day, the prospects of his finding himself in the dock, <a href="https://theconversation.com/president-zuma-loses-bid-to-dodge-783-charges-but-will-he-have-the-last-laugh-85703" target="_blank" rel="noopener">facing 783 charges</a>, including of corruption and racketeering, also increase.
Zuma will have every constitutional right to defy an ANC instruction to stand down as state president until his term expires following the next <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/newsmaker-2019-elections-results-will-be-credible-20171015-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">general election in 2019</a>, and the new parliament’s election of a new president. In terms of the <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.za/legislation/bills/2002/b16.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">South African Constitution</a>, his term of office will be brought to an early end only if parliament passes a vote of no confidence in his presidency, or votes that, for one reason or another, he is unfit for office.
But today’s ANC is so divided that it cannot be assumed that a majority of ANC MPs would <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-happening-inside-the-anc-not-parliament-is-key-to-why-zuma-prevails-82399" target="_blank" rel="noopener">back a motion of no confidence</a>, even following the election of Ramaphosa as the party’s new leader.
In other words, there is a very real prospect that South Africa will see itself ruled for at least another 18 months or so by what is termed <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2007-06-27-anc-debates-two-centres-of-power" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“two centres of power”</a>, with the authority and the legitimacy of the party (formally backing Ramaphosa) vying against that of the state (headed by Zuma).
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2016/12/01/zuma-thief-must-voetsek/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: &#8216;Zuma The Thief Must Go&#8217;</a>
<h2>Throwing caution to the wind</h2>
As if that is not a sufficient condition for political instability, we may expect that Zuma will continue to use his executive power to erect defences against his future prosecution. He will reckon to leave office only with guarantees of immunity. Until he gets them, Zuma will defy all blandishments to go. And if he does not get what he wants, he may throw caution to the wind and go for broke.
Hence, perhaps, the possibility that he is prepared to invoke a state of emergency.
The grounds for Zuma imposing a state of emergency would be specious, summoned up to defend his interests and those backing him. They would be likely to infer <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-pressure-mounts-on-south-africas-jacob-zuma-he-blames-an-old-enemy-western-intelligence-agencies-69599" target="_blank" rel="noopener">foreign interference</a> in affairs of state, alongside suggestions that <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/zuma-again-denounces-the-monopoly-of-white-economic-power-11988619" target="_blank" rel="noopener">white monopoly capital</a>, whites as a whole as well as nefarious others were conspiring to prevent much needed <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2017-12-15-know-your-candidate-dlamini-zuma-beats-the-ret-drum/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">radical economic transformation</a>. Present constitutional arrangements would be declared <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-south-africans-should-be-worried-by-anc-talk-of-a-colour-revolution-87019" target="_blank" rel="noopener">counter-revolutionary</a> and those defending them doing so only to protect their material interests.
After a matter of time, such justifications would probably be declared unconstitutional by the judiciary. It is then that there would be a confrontation between raw power and the Constitution. If such a situation should arise, we cannot be sure which would be the winner.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2017/12/13/anger-corporate-slippery-slope/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Anger At The Corporate Slippery Slope</a>
<h2>South Africa’s army</h2>
It is remarkable how little the searchlight that has focused on state capture has rested on the Defence Force. Much attention has been given to how the executive has effectively co-opted the <a href="https://theconversation.com/leaked-emails-ramaphosas-hypocrisy-on-spying-by-the-south-african-state-83605" target="_blank" rel="noopener">intelligence</a> and <a href="http://www.ngopulse.org/article/2016/09/29/political-interference-weakening-rule-law-sa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prosecutorial service</a>, as well has how the top ranks of the police have been selected for political rather than <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/15/world/africa/south-africa-police-commissioner-under-investigation-is-suspended.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">operational reasons</a>.
It seems to have been assumed that South Africa’s military is simply sitting in the background, observing political events from afar. But is it? Where would its loyalties lie in the event of a major constitutional crisis?
The danger of the present situation is that South Africa might be about to find out.
Were the military to throw its weight behind Zuma the country would be in no-man’s land. Of course, there would be a massive popular reaction, with the further danger that the president himself would summon his popular cohorts to <a href="https://theconversation.com/anc-military-veterans-and-the-threat-to-south-africas-democracy-76118" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“defend the revolution”</a>.
And South Africans should not assume that Zuma would be politically isolated. Those who backed Dlamini-Zuma did so to defend their present positions and capacity to use office for personal gain. If they were to rise up, the army would then be elevated to the status of defender of civil order.
What is certain is that in such a wholly uncertain situation the economy would spiral downwards quickly. Capital would take flight at a faster rate than ever before, <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=10658" target="_blank" rel="noopener">employment</a> would collapse even further, <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=10334" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poverty</a> would become even further entrenched.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/13/southern-slug-fest/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: The Southern Slug Fest</a>
<h2>Reasons to be hopeful</h2>
Is all this too extreme a scenario? Hopefully yes. There are numerous good reasons why such a fate will be averted.
Zuma’s control over the ANC is waning, as is his control over various state institutions, notably the National Prosecuting Authority. And the country has a checks and balances in place: there is a vigorous civil society, the judiciary has proved the Constitution’s main defence and trade unions and business remain influential.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89248/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />Even so, it remains the case that what transpires now that the ANC’s national conference is over will determine the fate and future of our democracy. South Africa is approaching rough waters, and a Jacob Zuma facing an inglorious and humiliating end to his presidency will be a Jacob Zuma at his most dangerous. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/roger-southall-296862" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Roger Southall</a>, Professor of Sociology, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-the-witwatersrand-894" target="_blank" rel="noopener">University of the Witwatersrand</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

The ANC has a new leader: but South Africa remains on a political precipice

It’s only a few weeks to the much anticipated African National Congress (ANC) leadership race. The number of people who want to be president has grown &#8211; unheard of in the 105-year history of the embattled ANC, the oldest party on the continent. President Jacob Zuma, who anointed his ex-wife, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, expressed dismay at the number of candidates who want to replace him. But the party veteran and former acting president, Kgalema Motlanthe, thinks there’s nothing wrong.
“It’s actually an anomaly and I suppose it is also a sign of state of health of the ANC because these contenders are members of the National Executive Committee (NEC0, which issued a directive at the beginning of the year that nobody should mention any names,” says Motlanthe.
Dlamini-Zuma, the former Africa Union chairperson and the country’s former foreign affairs, health and home affairs minister, and Cyril Ramaphosa, the Deputy President of South Africa, are the hot contenders. Ahead of the elective conference, starting on December 16 in Johannesburg, ANC members are at loggerheads. Motlanthe decried the premature announcement of contenders and says it goes against party tradition.
Zweli Mkhize, the Treasurer-General of the party, is favored as a second choice by supporters of Dlamini-Zuma.
“We leave everything to the branches to select their leadership and we make ourselves available. I still intend to be part of that leadership, and therefore we believe that as that collective that will emerge, we will be able to work together to focus on issues that will help to build the economy and ensure good governance,” Mkhize told FORBES AFRICA.
Gwede Mantashe, the party’s Secretary General and one of the most powerful members of the NEC, said the number of contenders was ridiculous, during his address of OR Tambo memorial lecture in September.
“It’s ridiculous because we are an organization, we know one another and we know our capabilities. It’s not just a question of coin tossing,” says Mantashe.
<div id="attachment_34368" style="width: 510px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-34368" class=" wp-image-34368" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Kgalema-Motlanthe-e1510557506890-300x224.jpg" alt="Kgalema Motlanthe" width="500" height="373" />Kgalema Motlanthe (Photo by Getty Images)</div>
The ANC has been divided since the 2007 elective conference in Polokwane, in the Limpopo province, where former President Thabo Mbeki, who had hinted at a third term, lost to Zuma, the man he fired as Deputy President in 2005. Since then, competing factions sought control of the party. It continued at the elective conference in 2012, in Mangaung, in the Free State, where Zuma easily defeated Motlanthe’s faction.
“The eradication of factionalism is going to be a long process because it is not just a once-off process; it is going to be something that is going to be linked into rebuilding the values, political education and bringing back party education. There’s also action to those who are involved in corruption, those who are arrogant and those who are not serving the community. All those need to be acted upon so that people can be convinced the ANC is working on some of the things it objected to,” says Mkhize.
ANC is riven by all kinds of scandal; from thousands of illegal members in KwaZulu-Natal, the political murders of whistle-blowers and the leaked Gupta family emails implicating ministers in so-called state capture – that is the takeover of government by private business.
“The ANC has been in power for 23 years and what has happened; corruption is very rife, the generosity and selflessness of former freedom fighters has been turned into greed and desire for the acquisition of material benefits which of course creates a sense of grievance in a majority of people who felt left out. Many of our people are not asking for pity, they are asking for opportunities so they can do for themselves what others are doing for themselves. The number of people without jobs has increased,” says Motlanthe.
“When the Constitution was crafted we hoped we would always have people of Mandela’s strong character in office. Now we know better.”
Whoever emerges victorious in December will be put forward as the ANC candidate for the general election in 2019. The party needs a good one if it is to cling to power against the growing opposition.
“It’s a moot question whether the ANC will retain power beyond the December conference. I don’t know if the new leadership of the ANC that will be elected will understand that or whether they will think by using more slogans you can win people, or a well-couched policy position, will crack it. People go by their lived experience. It will take some doing,” says Motlanthe.
<h2>The pros and cons of the main candidates:</h2>
Cyril Ramaphosa – As the Deputy President of the country and the ANC, it is expected he should be the next man in line. The killings of 34 miners in Marikana in 2012 affected Ramaphosa’s popularity in South Africa. He was a shareholder in Lonmin, the mining company that operated Marikana. But he’s seen as a business-minded candidate and maybe a little too close to the boardroom for the unions.
Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma – She is one of the longest serving parliamentarians, appointed in 1994 by President Nelson Mandela, she held a string of ministerial posts. Soon after serving as the chairperson of the African Union, Dlamini-Zuma was again sworn in as the Member of Parliament. The fact that she’s the ex-wife of President Zuma, she’s viewed as a proxy of her former husband who could yet face 783 criminal charges.  Dlamini-Zuma could be South Africa’s first female president.
Zweli Mkhize – He is the Treasurer-General of the ANC NEC and for a long time was an ally of President Zuma until he announced his interest to contest for his position. He is one of the favorites of the biggest ANC constituency of KwaZulu-Natal. The fact that he’s vying for the same support base as Dlamini-Zuma will make it tough.
Baleka Mbete – She is the Chairwoman of the NEC and was appointed Speaker of the National Assembly in 2014. Mbete was previously endorsed by ANC Women’s League, but she’s no longer their candidate since Dlamini-Zuma was endorsed early this year.
Lindiwe Sisulu – She’s one of surprise packages. The minister of housing is the daughter of the late Walter and Albertina Sisulu, both ANC stalwarts. ANC Chief Whip Jackson Mthembu and opposition leader Julius Malema called her “politically immature” but she has solid cabinet experience and a famous name.
Jeff Radebe – He is seen as an outsider to lead the ANC. Since 2014, he has served as the Minister in the Presidency. As a cabinet minister, he has served in different portfolios since President Mandela in 1994. In late June, Radebe accepted a nomination from ANC Midvaal, in Gauteng, but ever since then is the quiet candidate whom many are not giving a chance.
&#8211; Additional reporting by Thobile Hans

The Southern Slug Fest

Five years ago this week 44 people were killed in the course of an industrial dispute at a platinum mine in South Africa’s North West Province owned by Lonmin. It became known as the <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/marikana-massacre-16-august-2012" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Marikana massacre</a>.
For many observers, Marikana was a turning point in the presidency of Jacob Zuma – who came to power in 2009 – and in the history of democratic South Africa. Even more so, it gave an early indication of the abuse of state power that’s been the hallmark of the Zuma government.
Thirty-four miners were shot dead by members of the South African Police Service in a single day, <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/marikana-massacre-16-august-2012" target="_blank" rel="noopener">16 August 2012</a>. Seventeen were gunned down by heavily armed members of police tactical response teams as they left the <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03057070.2016.1223477?scroll=top&amp;needAccess=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">small hill (or koppie)</a> they’d been occupying. Others died at the hands of the police in the course of a brutal mopping up operation that followed.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2017/08/16/marikana-promise-kept-tears-grief/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Marikana: A Promise Kept Through Tears Of Grief</a>
Five years on, and two years after the official <a href="http://www.marikanacomm.org.za/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Farlam Commission of Inquiry</a> into the Marikana tragedy, <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2017/08/south-africa-five-years-on-marikana-victims-still-wait-for-justice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">no-one has been held to account</a>. Ministers have moved to new portfolios, police commanders have retired on ample pensions, or been <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/crime-courts/riah-phiyega-leaves-the-police-today-glad-she-ran-the-course-9708513" target="_blank" rel="noopener">replaced </a> in a blaze of litigation.
<h2>Lack of accountability</h2>
Only last week Zuma survived a vote of no confidence in parliament in the wake of a series of scandals. These included compelling evidence that he and his government are in thrall to the influential <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2016-03-24-00-the-gupta-owned-state-enterprises" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gupta family</a>.
Zuma’s reputation as the <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2017-08-08-motion-of-no-confidence-teflon-zuma-survives-but-vote-closer-than-expected/#.WZK6fraQy70" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“Teflon President”</a> – able to shrug off charges of everything from bribery to rape and allowing the South African state to be <a href="http://pari.org.za/betrayal-promise-report/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“captured” by the Guptas and their acolytes</a> – dates back well beyond 2012. But, when it comes to Marikana, Zuma is not the only one with non-stick credentials.
In March this year, the country’s <a href="https://nationalgovernment.co.za/units/view/20/Department-Independent-Police-Investigative-Directorate-IPID" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Independent Police Investigative Directorate</a>, the police oversight body, announced that it had identified <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/72-cops-to-be-charged-over-marikana-20170319-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">72 police officers to face charges</a>. These ranged from murder to perjury and defeating the ends of justice. Since then, no further action has been taken.
Important though this is, the responsibility for the massacre doesn’t stop at those who pulled the triggers. At the outset of the Farlam Commission’s public hearings, <a href="http://www.incwajana.com/dali-mpofu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dali Mpofu</a>, counsel for the miners injured at Marikana, blamed many of the deaths on <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2014-07-30-toxic-lonmin-police-collusion-blamed-for-marikana-massacre" target="_blank" rel="noopener">‘toxic collusion’</a>between the police and the mining company Lonmin.
As the inquiry progressed, Mpofu and others made strenuous efforts to blame Cyril Ramaphosa, deputy president of South Africa for the bloody denouement of 16 August. At the time Ramaphosa was a shareholder and non-executive director of Lonmin as well as a member of the ruling <a href="http://www.anc.org.za/officials/national-executive-committee-0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ANC’s National Executive Committee</a>.
The commission itself uncovered evidence that collusion went some way beyond the police commanders and Lonmin executives on the ground. At a special briefing two days before the massacre the police commissioner for the North West province, Lieutenant General Miriam Mbombo, told a senior Lonmin executive that police were planning to move in to “kill” the strikers’ protest.
Mbombo revealed that she was acutely aware of the influence wielded by Ramaphosa. She also admitted being alive to the risk of allowing Julius Malema, who had been expelled as leader of the ANC’s Youth League, to make political capital out of the dispute.
Based on the transcript of this briefing, the Commission found that both Mbombo and the then National Commissioner of police, General Riah Phiyega, were complicit in raising political factors in their discussions about <a href="http://www.gov.za/sites/www.gov.za/files/marikana-report-1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">policing in Marikana</a>. It found these discussions to be “inappropriate” and inconsistent with the constitutional requirement that policing should be conducted in an impartial and unbiased manner.
The Commission also determined that the fatal decision to forcibly remove the striking miners from the koppie they were occupying was taken by Mbombo and not by tactical commanders with expertise in public order policing. It was then endorsed at an extraordinary session of the South African Police Service’s national management forum late on 15 August.
The commission did not find a direct link between anyone in political authority having ordered the police to take action. It did, however, conclude that the decision to remove the strikers from the koppie was at least partly the consequence of the senior police officials feeling the need to act and to be seen to act.
This idea that the police commanders at Marikana did not need to be told what to do, or how to do it, is consistent with the social theorist Steven Lukes’ three-dimensional view of power and the ability of the powerful to secure the compliance of those they dominate without either making decisions or giving orders. The generals knew what had to be done to end a costly and politically damaging protest. They knew that it had to be done without further delay, and, if necessary, with the use of force. The result, as we now know, was the loss of 34 lives.
The way in which power, subtly but with far reaching consequences, was used at Marikana may also tell us something about how it’s used in contemporary South Africa more generally to control, perhaps even to capture, not just the police but other state institutions far beyond the criminal justice system. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bill-dixon-137304" rel="author">Bill Dixon, </a>Professor of Criminology, University of Nottingham
Originally published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>
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The Misery Commission

What the lack of accountability for Marikana says about Zuma’s government

It was like a scene from a Hollywood movie in the African bush. A helicopter hovered in the bright morning sun before swooping on a patch of long grass. A stocky man in a khaki cap, short-sleeve shirt and shorts, with a cigarette dangling from the corner of his mouth, emerged with a walk to equal the power of his arrival. This is the game auction business. The man was Waltie van der Walt, a game farmer and wildlife breeder in the Limpopo province, in the north of South Africa. In this business, Van der Walt is the lion of the jungle. He strides to the auction through a fleet of Land Rovers, 4&#215;4 double-cabs; the trappings of a multi-million-dollar business.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-3888" src="/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Animal-Auction-062-1024x681-300x200.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="200" />
In Limpopo wildlife auctions, Van der Walt is a kingpin with a large wallet. He is the founder and owner of Superior Game Breeders (SGB) on the Oorlogsfontein Game Ranch in Mokopane, Limpopo. You could argue he commands auctions as much as bids. Such is his standing that he doesn’t even deign to enter the auction. For the duration of his bidding, Van der Walt merely leans through the doorway.
Chere du Toit, a manager at Aucor Wildlife Auctions, likens him to fellow game buyers Johann Rupert, one of the richest men in Africa, and Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa’s deputy president. Ramaphosa put game auctions in the news with his attempt to buy a buffalo cow and its calf in Rustenburg, in the North West province of South Africa, in 2012. He lost to farmer, Boet Troskie, who paid around R20 million ($1.6 million). Ramaphosa later apologized to the nation for this attempt at conspicuous cow consumption.
Like Ramaphosa, Van der Walt, found this Saturday, in late March, was not his day. To his chagrin, a young man, bidding on behalf of somebody else, bought the kudu bull he was after. The most expensive kudu bull on the day went for R510,000 (around $40,000). An exasperated Van der Walt hovered off to another auction 30 kilometers away.
“I plan my bidding before I go to auctions. The animals are advertized on the auction’s website, so when you go there you already know precisely what you are after. Needless to say, I went to the auction knowing exactly what I wanted and what I am willing to pay for the animal. It must be within my budget. This was ridiculously expensive,” says Van der Walt later.
Van der Walt also owns Superior African Hunting Safaris, a hunting farm that his son Eli van der Walt manages. They have been in the business since 2001.
Among the 110 bidders who spent millions on the day, was Arie Kuhn, a game farmer in Limpopo, who is also a chartered accountant in Johannesburg. He says the game farmers were stocking up for the hunting season between May and September.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-3889" src="/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Animal-Auction-002-1024x681-300x200.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="200" />
“We know what the hunters want, so we stock on those animals that are trending. On my farm, we host trophy hunters who are mainly from abroad. Normally they like blue wildebeest because it’s a cheaper animal to shoot. You can shoot it for R6,000 (around $500) and take your animal home. I purchased a lot of them. We also do exotic game breeding in other camps but these are not for hunting,” says Kuhn.
He says his auction budget is determined by his bookings.
Kuhn has been in the game farming business for nine years and grew up on the farms of Limpopo. He brought his two children, Kaylen and Jayden, with him. Jayden, his eight-year-old son, has taken to his father’s passion of hunting impala.
As the auction wore on, the mood was festive at Aucor Wildlife Auctions. Du Toit says that this may not be one of their best days, without saying how much, but seemed satisfied.
In the near distance, in a thatched-roof building, rapped the voice of auctioneer Mike Killassy. He’s in his element and in high spirits. This auction lasted four hours.
“Hammer is up. Can you make it R10,000 ($800) now, sir? Are you happy, can we sell it?” asks the auctioneer.
Killassy, owner of Killassy Auctioneering, has spent more than three decades auctioneering and worked in the United States, Australia and Europe. He says his career’s highlight was being featured in TIME. Killassy was born in Aberdeen, a farming town in the Eastern Cape, to a family with more than 100 years in agriculture. He started as a stock farming auctioneer; these days he is inundated with wildlife auctions. They come up every week in South Africa.
The business has grown enough to attract analysis. Academics in North West University, South Africa, carried out a study. They found game ranching to be a better bet than banking and the stock exchange.
Flippie Cloete, an academic from North West University, says the economic contribution of game farming was close to at least R20 billion ($1.6 billion) in 2014.
Around 29,000 animals were sold at auctions in 2014, making R1.88 billion ($151 million). In total, around 130,000 game animals were traded during the 2014 season. This means a mere 22% of animals were sold at auctions.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-3891" src="/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Animal-Auction-047-1024x681-300x200.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="200" />
“If we assume that the trade composition of official auctions and private trade are analogous, then the economic contribution from live wildlife trade alone was close if not in excess of R10 billion ($800 million). This is not even considering the economic contribution for services such as capture and translocation, pharmaceuticals, veterinary expense. In addition, the contribution of hunting is estimated to be in excess of R8 billion ($642 million),” says Cloete.
“Game yields higher returns because of the cumulative effect. You have an asset with a reproductive ability. The returns of your investment are not only determined by the change in value of the original animals that were bought, but also from the progeny. If I put my money on stock exchange, or buy a house as an investment, then the returns will to a degree depend on what happened to the value of the shares or the house. However, the big difference is that one share can’t become two or a house can’t become two. But one animal becomes two and so forth. There’s a cumulative effect,” says Cloete.
Van der Walt concurs.
“There’s no comparison between investing in property and wildlife. The animals multiply themselves but property doesn’t. In animals you are guaranteed a 30 percent profit the next year,” he says.
Meanwhile, Andrew Lianos, a chartered accountant at River Group, wants to list wildlife animals on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). This has never been done before but he’s convinced he will have his way.
“The JSE does not comment on potential listings in the pipeline. It will only comment once a listing has been confirmed and this confirmation occurs via a SENS announcement as per JSE listing rules,” says Andre Visser, the General Manager for Issuer Regulation at the JSE.
On that sunny day in the bushes of Limpopo, Van der Walt may not have got his way in buying the kudu, but you could argue he has taken the game business by the horns.

Taking Millions By The Horns

Mmusi Maimane – Democratic Alliance leader: It is an insult to them [miners and their families] that three years later, not a single person has been criminally prosecuted or taken political responsibility for the tragic events. The report that was supposed to provide some sense of closure has now called for further investigations. But how many more years will it be before those responsible are held to account? The constitution clearly vests political accountability for the South African Police Service with the Minister and National Commissioner; at the very least former Minister of Police, Nathi Mthethwa, and the National Police Commissioner, Riah Phiyega, should take political responsibility for the events that occurred under their watch. There is something very wrong with a system that allows those who presided over the slaughter to remain in office without any penalties.
Dali Mpofu – Miners’ lawyer: The commission did not look at the underlying issues. It confined itself to the issues of who pulled the trigger and all sorts of technicalities about who was standing where without really interrogating the fundamental underlying issues that caused the conflict in the first place.
Julius Malema – Economic Freedom Fighters leader: While the commission of inquiry had the power and mandate to recommend further actions and persecutions in certain cases, the Economic Freedom Fighters believes that the actions of [Deputy President] Cyril Ramaphosa and Mthethwa had a casual effect on the mass killings in Marikana. We think Judge Farlam did a good job. He did what he was asked to do, although within a short period because of the terms of reference, he did not have an opportunity to dig deep.
Livhuwani Mammburu – National Union of Mineworkers spokesperson:  We welcome the report, but from the beginning we were worried when the strike started. The commission found that the strikers who marched to NUM’s offices did so with violent intent and found that the actions of the NUM can’t be criticized. We welcome the recommendation for further investigation. We maintain that NUM officials and members acted within the parameters of private defence.
Joseph Mathunjwa – Head of the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union: There is no truth, no justice. I think the commission was made as a gesture not to find the truth. This was another two years wasted. If there is no truth that is unearthed, there will be no healing. This was just a cover up exercise to cover the executives and the blunder of the government.
Zwelinzima Vavi – Former General Secretary of the Congress of South African Trade Unions: I find this insulting and insensitive. A new commission of inquiry must look at the conditions of both work and living conditions. Once the terms of the commission were amended, with the president writing another letter in April reminding the commission of inquiry that it can do everything except to make a finding on the executives, then you must know that by design the commission by Farlam was a fuss. It was never intended to give the victims and South Africa a point of knowing that they now are in a better position because the facts are out and they know who is responsible for all the deaths of the workers that perished. There is no truth, there is no justice… Where is the commission on the fitness of those who appointed them, the President for example? The commission is designed not to find the truth. It is designed to put junior officials as the fall guys.
Mosiuoa Lekota – Congress of the People leader: The moment that the terms of reference were amended to say the commission may not make any findings on the executives is one of the most shocking things that suggest that it was an order not to probe the central issue of political accountability to the people and to the nation.
Gareth Newham – Head of the Governance, Crime and Justice Division at the Institute for Security Studies: The deaths of the miners are unjustifiable. There is no finding that the police were under attack. The four commanders who testified, who stood in front of those members who shot, said they didn’t feel under attack. The police have not showed that what happened at scene two was self-defence.

No Truth, No Justice

Tanzania, the most expensive buffalo in Africa, is getting ready for a wedding night that is going to cost $31,000; the issue of this union will be worth even more.
People still cannot believe how much was paid for this cow—in a land where the average buffalo costs between $44,000 to $70,000. Jaco Troskie bought the huge and powerful cow for a staggering $2.5 million.
Troskie, the son of South African filmmaking mogul Boet Troskie, who made the film The Gods Must Be Crazy, outbid one of Africa’s richest men, Cyril Ramaphosa, for the East African buffalo. The buy broke records. In 2010, Piet du Toit and Cyril Ramaphosa bought a bull, Bayeto, for $1.2 million. In 2011, Peter Bellingham bought a bull, Senatla, for $2.2 million. Troskie, who made his money trading in game parks, beat the lot.
Tanzania is the biggest buffalo cow held in captivity in Africa, and possibly the world, and her horns span 43 inches long.
Troskie admits he did not think he would end up paying as much as he did. People said he was crazy and joked that he must have been drunk during the auction.
“I don’t even drink a drop of alcohol,” he says.
“I didn’t want to lose her… There are only a handful of buffalos with 50 inch horns or wider. You do not find one around every corner.”
Troskie spent $8.1 million that day and walked away with 10 buffalos.
“My investment is long-term. My idea was to keep her, take very good care of her and nurse her. If I don’t make my money back in eight years, then there is something wrong… Returns on investments [are] about 36%. There’s no investment in this country that gives you that kind of return on a year-to-year basis. It’s a sound business to get involved in and will be for some time.”
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Many in the business believe these sky-high prices cannot last. Piet du Toit disagrees.
Du Toit bought Tanzania for $324,000 last year from insurance billionaire Douw Steyn, and cleared $2.2 million from the recent auction. The 41-year-old began breeding game in 2001, and started focusing on rare game in 2006.
“There is [a lot of] money [to be made] in top genetics because there is nothing like it elsewhere. The breed is top class and investing in them will triple your money,” he says.
The former science and physical training teacher is now one of the country’s, if not the continent’s, top rare game breeders. The auction, held on his farm in the North West province of South Africa, where Tanzania, among other rare game, was sold, made almost $19 million on the day through the sale of 250 animals. The list of registered buyers reads like a board meeting. Among them, South African businessmen Ramaphosa and Steyn, and the Head of SAB Ltd in SA, Nicholas Adami, among others.
With an average return on investment of more than 70% over four years, du Toit is not planning on to quit anytime soon, but is also attempting to preserve the species.
“We are trying to get them as close to where they were in the early 1800s, when the settlers found [the buffalo] here [in Africa],” says du Toit.
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According to the New World Encyclopedia, the population of
African buffalo was once tens of millions, but has dwindled to around 900,000. Most of them are in East Africa. They’ve been hunted and their habitat has been squeezed by farming, drought and disease.
Top-class animals like Tanzania are more expensive because of their size, strength, health and horn length. Another rare and prized buffalo bull in captivity is Bayeto, co-owned by du Toit and Ramaphosa. They bought Bayeto, who is currently staying on Ramaphosa’s farm, in 2010 for $1.2 million and sold his first calf this year for nearly $900,000. But Tanzania will be mated with her equal, Matetsi, an equally rare and thoroughbred East African bull worth $400,000. He will be united with Tanzania to produce an heir to their throne—expected to fetch even more money.
Is there even more money to be made in the game game? Forget about the tip of the iceberg, the people in the game business prefer their own analogy. The prices paid so far merely reach the ears of the hippo as it raises its head from the water.

Tag: Cyril Ramaphosa

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