TOPLINE After more than a month of declining new coronavirus infections worldwide, the case count ticked up slightly last week, the World Health Organization said Wednesday — a reversal WHO officials called a “stern warning” as some countries greet the arrival of vaccines by loosening restrictions that reduce the spread of the disease.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h3>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>The WHO <a href="https://covid19.who.int/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">reported</a> nearly 2.7 million new confirmed cases last week, an increase of almost 8% from the week prior, ending a six-week streak of falling case counts.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>The number of coronavirus cases grew in <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/india-giving-covid-19-vaccines-people-cases-rise-76175604" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">India</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/coronavirus-brazil-vaccine-variant-bolsonaro/2021/03/01/1a03d52a-7a12-11eb-a976-c028a4215c78_story.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Brazil</a>, and parts of Europe last week, and case counts remained fairly stable in the <a href="https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">United States</a>, according to WHO figures.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>WHO epidemiologist Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove said at a press conference Wednesday the organization is still trying to figure out why cases are suddenly on the rise again, but she warned fatigue about coronavirus restrictions and optimism about vaccines could cause people to disregard social distancing and mask-wearing measures.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>The WHO said a reopening of society is on the horizon thanks to vaccines, but case counts are still too high to disregard basic public health measures, and a resurgence of the virus could force governments to reintroduce stringent lockdowns.</li></ul>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-crucial-quote">CRUCIAL QUOTE</h3>



“It&#8217;s really important that everyone out there still adheres to these measures in place, because we have quite a ways to go to continue to drive transmission down,” Van Kerkhove said. “If we allow this virus to spread, it will.”



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-big-number">BIG NUMBER</h3>



114.43 million. That’s how many total coronavirus cases the WHO has reported since early 2020, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://covid19.who.int/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">figures from Wednesday</a>. More than 2.5 million people have died of the virus worldwide, though weekly deaths have declined steadily for the last four weeks.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-background">KEY BACKGROUND</h3>



Coronavirus infections peaked globally in early January,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/02/world/portugal-has-europes-highest-death-rate-and-is-desperately-short-of-hospital-beds.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">filling</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-london/london-field-hospital-to-reopen-as-shortage-of-critical-beds-looms-idUSKBN29C16P" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">up</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-29/oxygen-supply-shortages-bedevil-hospitals-already-overwhelmed-by-covid-19-patients" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">hospitals</a>&nbsp;across several countries and driving daily death tolls to their highest levels since the pandemic began. This problem was possibly exacerbated by new, highly contagious coronavirus variants first spotted in the&nbsp;<a href="https://apnews.com/article/italy-virus-variant-children-d763a3e484cc74be866067a6adf16ced" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">United Kingdom</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/03/world/americas/Brazil-covid-variant.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Brazil</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-africa-coronavirus-variant-infects-two-new-york-city-residents-11614724338" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">South Africa</a>. As cases slope down from their peak and millions of people worldwide get vaccinated,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/03/01/cdc-chief-is-really-worried-about-states-loosening-covid-19-restrictions-many-are-doing-it-anyway/?sh=e10fea7f415e">many U.S. states</a>&nbsp;have loosened their coronavirus restrictions or&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/02/us/texas-governor-mask-mandate/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">lifted them altogether</a>, and countries like&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france/france-eyes-possible-easing-of-covid-restrictions-from-mid-april-idUKKBN2AV1Q5" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">France</a>&nbsp;and the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56158405" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">United Kingdom</a>&nbsp;are plotting a slower reopening process starting next month. But with case counts still high and variants spreading globally, some experts say it’s too soon to reopen.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-tangent">TANGENT</h3>



The WHO’s warnings echoed cautious words from U.S. officials in recent days. Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/02/26/us-covid-19-case-decline-leveling-off-in-very-concerning-shift-as-variants-spread-cdc-director-warns/?sh=16d067d643c5">worried</a>&nbsp;case counts are plateauing or even increasing slightly in the United States. She&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/02/26/us-covid-19-case-decline-leveling-off-in-very-concerning-shift-as-variants-spread-cdc-director-warns/?sh=16d067d643c5">urged states</a>&nbsp;to hold off on relaxing their restrictions, advice some state officials did not take.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-further-reading">FURTHER READING</h3>



<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/03/01/cdc-chief-is-really-worried-about-states-loosening-covid-19-restrictions-many-are-doing-it-anyway/?sh=e10fea7f415e">CDC Chief Is ‘Really Worried’ About States Loosening Covid-19 Restrictions—Many Are Doing It Anyway (Forbes)</a>



By Joe Walsh, Forbes Staff

RWANDA-HEALTH-VIRUS-EDUCATION

Global Covid Cases Are Increasing Again As WHO Warns Of Premature Relaxation On Social Distancing

Topline: With declining Covid-19 hospital admissions and deaths, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa spoke on Sunday evening to announce the country’s move from Lockdown Alert Level 3 directly to Alert Level 1 and some crucial changes to public restrictions.



Key Facts



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Friday, March 5, will mark one year since the first case of coronavirus was reported in South Africa. This comes just as the country has hit over 1.5 million cases and nearly 50, 000 people have died from the fatal virus.&nbsp;</li><li>“So much has changed in our country and our lives. But the spirit of our people has not changed. You have endured the greatest hardships, but you have remained resolute, united, and hopeful,” Ramaphosa said on Sunday evening.</li><li>The president further noted the “dramatic decline” in infection rates recently, thus the decision of the government to reduce the lockdown level to one.&nbsp;</li><li>Moreover, admissions to hospital and deaths “have fallen significantly and continue to decline steadily”. In the week that has just passed, the country recorded just under 10,000 new infections. Ramaphosa believes that the decline is due to a combination of public health measures, changes in social behavior and accumulating immunity in those who became infected in the communities.</li></ul>



Crucial Changes In Restrictions



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>The hours of the curfew will now be from midnight until 4AM.</li><li>Gatherings will be permitted, subject to limitations on size. These include religious, social, political, and cultural gatherings. However, the maximum number of people allowed at any gathering is 100 people indoors and 250 outdoors. Furthermore, night vigils and nightclubs are still not permitted.&nbsp;</li><li>The sale of alcohol is now allowed as normal however not during the hours of curfew.&nbsp;</li><li>The 33 land border posts that have been closed throughout this period will remain closed, while the other 20 will remain open. Only five airports, OR Tambo, Cape Town, King Shaka, Kruger Mpumalanga, and Lanseria airports, will be open for international travel.&nbsp;</li></ul>



Crucial Quote



“This pandemic has taken much from us, but it has not taken our strength, our courage, or our sense of solidarity as a people,” Ramaphosa said. “It has not dampened our spirit or weakened our resolve. Our uniquely South African spirit has allowed us to remain steadfast in the face of an unprecedented threat, and which will continue to inspire us as we chart a path to recovery.”

SAFRICA-HEALTH-VIRUS

A Year With The Virus, South Africa Moves From Alert Level 3 to 1

The impact of Covid-19 on mental health is also proving deadly, particularly in Africa.



BY PAULA SLIER AND SASHA STAR



PHYSICAL HEALTH HAS BEEN BROUGHT INTO sharp focus over the last year as people watch for any sign of irregular temperature, loss of breath, or a tickle at the back of their throat. Yet, the impact of Covid-19 on mental health is also proving deadly, particularly in Africa where health services were facing a financial struggle long before there was a viral pandemic.



The World Health Organization in 2020 reported that 15 African countries are among the top 30 in the world for suicide per 100,000 people. Mental health is a silent problem when it comes to the continent.



While awareness of such issues may be on the rise globally, cultural and traditional practices in Africa have prevented conditions such as depression and d anxiety receiving the attention they deserve, according to Miyoba Muloongo, a licensed counselor working with Zambia’s Ministry of Health. 



“People relate mental health to witchcraft or superstition because there is less awareness about what the illness really is,” Muloongo says. “There is a stigma related to people who have mental health issues. And sometimes people have mental health issues, but they are not aware; or they may be aware, but are not willing to come forth because of the stigma attached to it.”



Even when those dealing with mental health issues do choose to voice their burden, the disclosure is not always met with encouragement. “I would say the biggest issue is ignorance,” states Kenyan business developer, Andrew Njoroge. “In Africa, people say, ‘How can you be sad? Be happy. Smile!’ That doesn’t solve the issue. You cannot force someone to be happy.”



Njoroge believes that both community members and policy-makers need to get involved to combat the ignorance.



“There needs to be a hybrid solution whereby it’s top-down and bottom-up and they meet in the middle,” he says, while suggesting that the community takes a hands-on approach and the government provides funding and adapts legislature. “Government needs to work on its incentives and community programs, whereas community workers themselves must rally up. You need people on the ground engaging to see who needs help and who is battling mental health. There needs to be a two-pronged approach.”



Community initiatives seem to be the most effective way to assist those afflicted with mental illness, especially in poverty-stricken areas. “We have foundations which are offering appropriate therapy or psychotherapy to people who might be in need but cannot afford to go the private way,” Muloongo says. Volunteers have been trained to listen to adolescents who may not have ventured to clinics but are now able to share their concerns free of charge, while wellness gatherings have been established for men to normalize discussing issues that they would not have spoken about previously. The African concept of an extended family dynamic, where everyone is seen as a relative, is one of the age-old ideologies that is also being adopted to tackle mental health.



“The issue is culture-specific interventions which need to be addressed from the community level because that’s where it all starts from,” believes Muloongo. “That’s where we have the coping mechanisms which we have always used. We would sit around the fire and be told stories on how to cope in general with our grandparents. These methods can still work even this time around.”



Njoroge admits to having anxiety himself and concurs that sharing one’s experience with mental health is the correct way to approach the matter, using the renowned adage ‘a problem shared is a problem halved’. “What I see is more and more people finally speaking out in this day and age of social media and I feel like, in the next five years, there will be more and more people speaking up about their problems,” he says. “I’m speaking my truth so that someone else hears it and it inspires someone else to do so.”

Teenage girl wearing mask sitting in her window

How Mental Health Has Proven To Be The Silent Pandemic

Topline: After what has been one of the most difficult years in history, the highlights of South African finance minister Tito Mboweni’s annual Budget Speech today.



Key Facts



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Economy expected to grow by 3.3% in 2021.</li><li>The budget deficit has been revised to 14% of GDP in 2020/21 in response to the spending and economic pressures of the COVID-19 pandemic.</li><li>Gross debt has increased from 65.6% to 80.3% of GDP for the year 2020/21.</li><li>To support economic recovery, government will not raise any additional tax revenue in this budget.</li><li>The government has set aside more than R10 billion for the purchase and delivery of vaccines over the next two years.</li><li>Mboweni said taxpayers would not have to pay more as no new taxes will be introduced to fund vaccines.</li><li>Moreover, the minister said: “We increase the contingency reserve from R5 billion to R12 billion to make provision for the further purchase of vaccines and to cater for other emergencies.”</li><li>In addition to looking at vaccines, there is also a provisional allocation totaling R11 billion for the public employment initiative. Mboweni said with this he hopes to create another 180,000 jobs by March, to add to the temporary 430,000 jobs.</li><li>Small businesses felt the brunt of the pandemic during the year. The Department of Small Business Development has allocated R4 billion over the medium term to the township and rural enterprises, including blended finance initiatives.</li><li>The tourism sector in the country also tanked quite a bit due to travel restrictions, thus why the Department of Tourism has reprioritized R540 million over the medium term to establish the Tourism Equity Fund (TEF) as one of the measures to support the tourism sector recovery. The fund will acquire equity stakes in existing tourism enterprises, support expansion of operations and development of new operations.</li></ul>



Crucial Quote



Mboweni made it clear that South Africa is deeper in debt than they have ever been. He further told members in parliament to note that the “government is not swimming in cash”. 



“&#8230;our assessment from the Supplementary Budget in June last year still stands: our public finances are dangerously overstretched. Our borrowing requirement will remain well above R500 billion in each year of the medium-term despite the modest improvements in our fiscal position. Consequently, gross loan debt will increase from R3.95 trillion in the current fiscal year to R5.2 trillion in 2023/24.”&nbsp;



Mboweni stated further that the country owes “a lot of people a lot of money”.

South African Finance Minister delivers the Mid-Term Budget Review in Cape Town

South Africa Budget: No New Tax For Vaccines

TOPLINE Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine staved off illness and death for over 95% of Israeli patients, according to government figures released Saturday from a report reviewed by multiple news outlets, encouraging news from the world’s most heavily vaccinated country.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h3>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Israel’s Ministry of Health studied the roughly 1.7 million Israelis who had received both shots of Pfizer’s vaccine as of the end of last month, and released a report later obtained by <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-israel-vaccine/covid-infections-dropped-95-8-after-both-pfizer-shots-israeli-health-ministry-idUSKBN2AK0NC" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Reuters</a> and several <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/vaccine-close-to-99-percent-effective-in-preventing-death-latest-israeli-data-shows-1.9555313" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">local</a> <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-says-vaccine-dramatically-effective-prevents-98-9-of-covid-deaths/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">news</a> <a href="https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/1613844321-israel-coronavirus-vaccine-almost-96-percent-effective-in-preventing-disease" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">outlets</a>. </li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Two weeks after receiving both doses, vaccinated Israelis were 95.8% less likely to fall ill from Covid-19 and 98.9% less likely to face hospitalization or death, Reuters reported.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>This report follows a spate of good news from Israel: The country’s main healthcare provider <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-israel-vaccine-idUSKBN2AE0Q2?taid=60298276a77dbd00013d1f6c&amp;utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&amp;utm_medium=trueAnthem&amp;utm_source=twitter" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">said Sunday</a> vaccinated patients are 92% less likely to end up with serious Covid-19 cases than their unvaccinated peers, and a <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2821%2900448-7" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">non-peer reviewed study</a> Thursday found just one dose of the vaccine reduces the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/02/19/single-shot-of-pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine-is-85-effective-study-finds/?sh=52725c173969">risk of infection</a> by 75% after two weeks.</li></ul>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-big-number">BIG NUMBER</h3>



32.4%. That’s the share of Israelis who are fully vaccinated as of Saturday, according to the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">New York Times</a>’ tracker. The country ranks first in the world for vaccinations, compared to the United States’ 5.1% immunization rate.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-background">KEY BACKGROUND</h3>



Israel is leading the worldwide vaccination race, partly&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/01/04/why-israel-is-leading-the-world-in-covid-vaccinations-and-the-us-is-trailing/?sh=6408ca0b1592">due to</a>&nbsp;the country’s small size,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/01/why-israels-vaccine-success-might-be-hard-replicate/617780/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">speed</a>&nbsp;in buying up doses and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/31/covid-vaccine-israel-says-its-inoculated-7percent-of-its-population-its-less-than-1percent-in-us.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">comprehensive network</a>&nbsp;of HMOs (the effort&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/04/world/middleeast/israel-palestinians-vaccine.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">controversially</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/55800921" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">doesn’t include</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/pa-says-israel-has-agreed-to-vaccinate-palestinian-workers-against-covid-1.9553781" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">most</a>&nbsp;residents of the West Bank and Gaza Strip). Public health authorities around the world are&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/05/world/middleeast/israel-virus-vaccination.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">watching Israel’s progress closely</a>, making the country the planet’s largest test case for the impact of mass-vaccination. So far, experts say there’s reason for cautious optimism: cases and hospitalizations have&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-05/israel-s-pioneering-covid-vaccination-program-offers-key-lessons" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">declined for</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/israel" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">several weeks</a>.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-crucial-quote">CRUCIAL QUOTE</h3>



“Israel has a remarkable diminution in cases associated with the efficiency of their vaccine,” U.S. infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2021/02/17/press-briefing-by-white-house-covid-19-response-team-and-public-health-officials-4/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">said Wednesday</a>.



By Joe Walsh, Forbes Staff

ISRAEL-HEALTH-VIRUS-VACCINE

Pfizer’s Covid Vaccine Over 95% Effective In Israel, New Study Reportedly Shows

TOPLINE: The number of new Covid-19 cases around the world fell for the fifth consecutive week last week, the World Health Organization <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiological-update---16-february-2021" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a>, dropping 16% to 2.7 million new cases, though infectious new variants of the virus continue to spread to new regions of the world. 



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h3>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>In the space of five weeks, the number of new Covid-19 cases reported around the world has almost halved, the WHO said in its weekly epidemiological report Tuesday. </li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Of the six regions the WHO divides the world into, only one, the Eastern Mediterranean, reported a (7%) rise in cases last week, with all others reporting double digit declines.   </li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>The number of new deaths reported around the world also fell 10% from last week to 81,000, the WHO said, which used figures up to Sunday.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>WHO chief Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus <a href="https://twitter.com/DrTedros/status/1361401367743655942?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a> Monday the global progress “shows that simple public health measures work, even in the presence of variants.” </li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>“What matters now is how we respond to this trend,” he said, stressing that the “fire is not out… (and that) if we stop fighting it on any front, it will come roaring back.”</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>The agency is still monitoring the spread of numerous Covid-19 variants—including those first identified in South Africa, the U.K. and Brazil—which have each spread to new countries.  </li></ul>



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">This shows that simple public health measures work against <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/COVID19?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#COVID19</a>, even in the presence of variants. What matters now is how we respond to this trend. The fire is not out, but we have reduced its size. If we stop fighting it on any front, it will come roaring back.&mdash; Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (@DrTedros) <a href="https://twitter.com/DrTedros/status/1361401367743655942?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 15, 2021</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-tangent">TANGENT</h3>



By a substantial margin, the United States recorded the highest number of new cases (673,670) and deaths (21,412) from the virus last week, although these figures were down 23% and 5% from the previous week respectively.&nbsp;



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-background">KEY BACKGROUND</h3>



Many countries around the world are starting to ramp up vaccination drives, with Israel and the United Arab Emirates having&nbsp;<a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">inoculated</a>&nbsp;a significant portion of the population. There are fears that poorer countries will be left without supplies as the rich hoard them—something Tedros has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2020/10/26/who-warns-of-dangerous-moment-amid-spike-in-covid-19-cases/?sh=4cd61d56244c">termed</a>&nbsp;vaccine nationalism—though the WHO’s recent&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/02/15/astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-gets-emergency-approval-from-who/?sh=4bc5cd3c3953">approval</a>&nbsp;of AstraZeneca’s shot, a much cheaper and more easily transported product, is cause for optimism.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-to-watch-for">WHAT TO WATCH FOR</h3>



The WHO is keeping an eye on new variants of the novel coronavirus, though warned that approximately 70% of its genomic sequences come from just three countries (U.S., U.K. and Denmark).



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-further-reading">FURTHER READING</h3>



<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/17/new-global-covid-cases-fell-16-last-week-says-who" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">New global Covid cases fell 16% last week, says WHO</a>&nbsp;(Guardian)



<a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiological-update---16-february-2021" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Weekly epidemiological update &#8211; 16 February 2021</a>&nbsp;(WHO)



<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/02/14/why-coronavirus-cases-are-dropping/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Four reasons experts say coronavirus cases are dropping in the United States</a> (Washington Post)



By Robert Hart,Forbes Staff

SWITZERLAND-VIRUS-HEALTH-FOUNTAIN

New Covid-19 Cases Around The World Dropped 16% Last Week, World Health Organization Says

The largest free trade area in the world, with a combined GDP of $3.3 trillion, came into effect on the first day of 2021. A look at what exactly implementation of a deal of this magnitude means.



By Paula Slier and Sasha Star



AFRICA’S TRADE RELATIONSHIPS HAVE BEEN irreversibly affected by three events – the Covid-19 pandemic and two important trade agreements.



At midnight on 31 January 2020, the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) officially came into force. The decision – Brexit – made by 52% of the British population resulted in the EU losing its second-largest economy and the Union Jack isolating itself in terms of trade, effectively quarantining in its own home. But for Africa, the move holds opportunities. Untapped export potential to the UK is large as is untapped UK export to Africa; the latter is worth more than $8 billion.



Yet, it is the new trade agreement implemented in Africa where interest should really be directed; 54 of the 55 African Union states on the continent have signed up for the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement (AfCFTA) which came into effect on the first day of 2021. Eritrea is the only country that chose to sit out – and there are various explanations as to why not unconnected to power and politics.



By creating the largest free trade area in the world, 1.3 billion people are now set to benefit from the elimination of tariffs on most goods, the liberalization trade of key services and the address of non-tariff obstacles to intraregional trade. The AfCFTA is estimated to bring Africa annual income gains of more than $130 billion per year.



The deal could not have come at a better time, though this was hardly factored in when the agreement was originally brokered in March 2018. Covid-19 has substantially impacted Africa’s tourism sector that accounts for much of its revenue— particularly for smaller nations — while the trade of goods, oil, and even food has also declined significantly as a result of the novel coronavirus.



“The pandemic has presented a historic opportunity to build a better future,” says the African Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It stresses that “trade integration, along with domestic reforms to improve revenue mobilization, digitalization, competition, social safety nets, and climate-change mitigation, will be critical for the region’s resilience, growth and job creation”.



An extensive reduction of tariffs is the first step towards this. With 90% of taxed intraregional trade flows being contracted under the AfCFTA, current flows are due to increase by around 16%, or $16 billion.



“The AfCFTA, if implemented as laid out in papers, would usher an economic progression that would make China’s remarkable economic transformation look basic,” claims Ibrahim Anoba, the Managing Editor of AfricanLiberty.org.



“We’re talking about a continent with a consumer market as large as China but with a superior mineral and natural resources concentration.” The potential of the AfCFTA is enormous, but, as Anoba points out, this all depends on the players in the game. “The different thing about the AfCFTA is that it would take an absolute commitment from as many signatory states as possible to be efficient,” he says. “The first phase is the conceiving of the idea. The second is implementation; proper implementation. This is where we’re at. We cannot move further unless we do this right.”



What exactly does implementation of a deal of this magnitude mean, though?



With so many players involved, it is understandable that the AfCFTA will be enforced in stages. The instruments that are already operational include the regulations and administrative rulings applied by governments to determine the source of goods, services and investments known as the rules of origin; the monitoring and elimination of non-tariff barriers; as well as the schedule of tariff concessions and other specific commitments.



“Long term, the AfCFTA faces a Brexit type of threat from the larger economies which may feel like they are giving up too much autonomy by being part of the agreement,” warns Jamie Mighti, a South Africa-based political analyst. “This risk is higher in Africa than in the European Union because of increased economic disparities between states and Afrophobic attitudes.” Mighti believes that there are substantial levels of antipathy to the business presence of Africans from other states in the large African economies and that this could present a massive challenge to the success of the AfCFTA.



It is not all doom and gloom, however. Mighti is of the opinion that better inclusion of the youth on the continent is an excellent way to ensure that the agreement will thrive, and that more focus should be placed on aiding small and medium-sized businesses, as opposed to large entities. The IMF also feels that tariff reductions should be complemented by policies to reduce non-tariff bottlenecks to trade, and that agriculture-based and less diversified countries should combine trade policies with structural reforms that boost agricultural productivity to better leverage existing comparative advantages.



Overall, the AfCFTA has been packaged as an opportunity to lead Africa down a path of prosperity, or fall into greater economic depravity that will take decades to equalize. As Anoba sums up, “If things go according to plan, we can finally expect Africa to emerge as the global economy’s heartbeat a decade from now.”

Foreman control loading Containers box from Cargo freight ship

Will The AfCFTA Be The Heartbeat Of The Global Economy?

TOPLINE Someone who is fully vaccinated who’s exposed to coronavirus doesn’t have to quarantine, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/info-by-product/clinical-considerations.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">said&nbsp;</a>Wednesday, offering clarity into how vaccinated people should go about their lives as the rest of the country waits to get inoculated.&nbsp;&nbsp;



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h4>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>In the new guidance, the CDC said people who have received both doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine and are currently asymptomatic are no longer required to quarantine for two weeks.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>It can take up to two weeks to develop immunity after the last dose, so the CDC says people should still quarantine if it has been less than two weeks since their last shot.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>However, the free pass on quarantining only applies to those who received their second shot within the last three months, since it’s unclear as of yet how long protection lasts.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>The CDC still says that vaccinated people should continue to wear masks and social distance because the vaccine isn’t 100% effective and it&nbsp;<a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/vaccines/vaccines-faq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">doesn’t prevent</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2021/01/16/rand-paul-says-throw-your-mask-away-after-covid-19-vaccination-dont-do-that/?sh=6dc3f0b07ccf">asymptomatic&nbsp;</a><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/02/health/covid-19-vaccine-why-people-still-test-positive/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">illness</a>.</li></ul>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-crucial-quote">CRUCIAL QUOTE</h4>



“Individual and societal benefits of avoiding unnecessary quarantine may outweigh the potential but unknown risk of transmission, and facilitate the direction of public health resources to persons at highest risk for transmitting SARS-CoV-2 to others,” the CDC said.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-background">KEY BACKGROUND</h4>



There have been a few publicized cases of individuals testing positive for the virus even after they have been vaccinated, including Rep.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/stephen-lynch-covid-19-positive-vaccine/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Steve Lynch</a>&nbsp;(D-Ma.) and a California man who&nbsp;<a href="https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2021/02/09/orange-county-man-tests-positive-covid-19-vaccine/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">tested&nbsp;</a>positive three weeks after getting his second dose of the Pfizer vaccine. Still,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/leahrosenbaum/2021/01/29/some-experts-claim-covid-19-reinfections-are-not-a-huge-problem-but-nobodys-tracking-the-numbers/?sh=368ea41b1915">no one</a>&nbsp;is keeping track of reinfections, so it’s unclear how widespread the issue is.



By Rachel Sandler, Forbes Staff

PALESTINIAN-HEALTH-VIRUS-VACCINE

Fully Vaccinated People Don’t Have To Quarantine If They’re Exposed To Coronavirus, CDC Says

TOPLINE South Africa has dropped plans to roll out the Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine after a new analysis suggests the shot provides “minimal protection” against mild disease from the new variant circulating in the country—the country will possibly sell the doses and instead distribute the unauthorized Johnson &amp; Johnson vaccine to frontline healthcare workers, a move that runs counter to advice from experts who believe the shot is still of value in preventing severe disease.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h4>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Health Minister Zweli Mkhize <a href="https://apnews.com/article/world-news-coronavirus-pandemic-africa-south-africa-coronavirus-vaccine-3f54526ca5bfca84eadfaeaea5ade5d5" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a> South Africa had abandoned plans to use the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine as it “does not prevent mild to moderate disease” caused by the variant circulating in the country.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>The rollout was first suspended Sunday after a small study that had not undergone peer review and did not evaluate the vaccine’s protection against severe disease, a key metric of success, suggested it provided “minimal protection” against mild disease from the variant.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Instead, Mkhize said South Africa might <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-safrica-idUSKBN2AA0G2?taid=602387f7496f1e00010ad0aa&amp;utm_campaign=trueanthem&amp;utm_medium=trueanthem&amp;utm_source=twitter" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">sell</a> or swap its 1.5 million Oxford-AstraZeneca shots—something he said has been discussed with the Covax alliance for equitable vaccine distribution worldwide, through which South Africa has acquired some of its shots—and deploy the Johnson &amp; Johnson single-shot vaccine to frontline healthcare workers.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>The World Health Organization, along with the study’s lead author and a number of other health organizations, has <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-08/astra-s-covid-shot-still-useful-in-variant-hit-areas-who-says" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">urged</a> South Africa not to dismiss the Oxford-AstraZeneca shot too soon, stressing its ability to help prevent severe cases of the disease. </li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Though the Johnson &amp; Johnson vaccine has not been authorized for use in any country yet, Mkhize said it is safe and was in the process of being approved in South Africa and would be initially distributed as part of an “implementation study.”</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>“The Johnson &amp; Johnson vaccine has been proven effective against the 501Y.V2 variant and the necessary approval processes for use in South Africa are underway,” Mkhize said.</li></ul>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-chief-critic">CHIEF CRITIC&nbsp;</h4>



Shabir Madhi, lead investigator of the study prompting the policy change and a professor at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-09/s-africa-s-madhi-says-astrazeneca-vaccine-should-be-used" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">urged</a>&nbsp;the country not to be “reckless” in how it deals with the Oxford-AstraZeneca shot. “It’s going to have global repercussions,” he added.&nbsp;“The toss-up is going to be between no vaccine or a vaccine that’s got a high likelihood of preventing severe disease and death,” he&nbsp;<a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/02/08/965390228/why-south-africa-is-putting-the-astrozeneca-vaccine-on-hold" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a>.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-tangent">TANGENT</h4>



A new&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2021/02/03/astrazeneca-vaccine-helps-slow-covid-19-transmission-first-dose-76-effective-for-at-least-three-months-study-finds/?sh=14c3d9de1745">study</a>&nbsp;has found that the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine could lead to a significant drop in the spread of Covid-19 in the U.K.. As well as slowing the spread of the virus, scientists found a single dose of AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine is 76% effective in preventing symptomatic infection after three months of receiving the shot, a finding that validates the U.K. government’s current approach of delaying the second dose.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-background">KEY BACKGROUND</h4>



The emergence of new Covid-19 variants capable of evading, at least partially, the protection conferred by vaccines is another indication the novel coronavirus could be a permanent fixture in the future. World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus&nbsp;<a href="https://apnews.com/article/un-news-vaccine-may-not-work-variants-7950427023f7883e0c2d33998aafb279" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a>&nbsp;Monday that South Africa’s decision is “a reminder that we need to do everything we can to reduce circulation of the virus with proven public health measures” and that vaccine manufacturers will need to adjust their vaccines going forward. Several, Oxford-AstraZeneca included, are already&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/02/03/next-gen-vaccine-for-covid-19-mutants-will-be-ready-by-fall-astrazeneca-says/?sh=3a78fd947b94">developing</a>&nbsp;booster shots to account for the new variants.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-to-watch-for">WHAT TO WATCH FOR</h4>



Other countries in the region may follow South Africa’s lead in swapping the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine for something else. On Tuesday, the health minister for neighboring eSwatini&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-eswatini/update-1-eswatini-will-not-use-astrazeneca-vaccine-after-safrica-trial-data-idUSL1N2KF2DZ" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a>&nbsp;it would no longer use the vaccine.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-further-reading">FURTHER READING</h4>



<a href="https://apnews.com/article/world-news-coronavirus-pandemic-africa-south-africa-coronavirus-vaccine-3f54526ca5bfca84eadfaeaea5ade5d5" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">South Africa scraps AstraZeneca vaccine, will give J&amp;J jabs</a>&nbsp;(AP)



<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/02/08/south-africa-halts-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-after-study-shows-minimal-protection-against-local-variant/?sh=2016bf78461a">South Africa Halts AstraZeneca Covid-19 Vaccine After Study Shows ‘Minimal Protection’ Against Local Variant</a>&nbsp;(Forbes)



<a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/02/08/965390228/why-south-africa-is-putting-the-astrozeneca-vaccine-on-hold" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Why South Africa Is Putting The AstraZeneca Vaccine On Hold</a>&nbsp;(NPR)



<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-safrica-idUSKBN2AA0G2?taid=602387f7496f1e00010ad0aa&amp;utm_campaign=trueanthem&amp;utm_medium=trueanthem&amp;utm_source=twitter" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">South Africa says selling or swapping AstraZeneca doses are options</a> (Reuters)



By Robert Hart, Forbes Staff

South African Minister Zweli Mkhize conducts an inspection of King Dinuzulu Hospital

South Africa Abandons Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 Vaccine In Favor Of Unapproved Johnson & Johnson Shot

Understanding the successful storage, supply chain, and distribution of the Covid-19 vaccine and what Africa needs to do to get it right.



THERE WAS PERSONAL DILIGENCE IN conducting the research for this story, as this writer too tested positive for Covid-19 at the end of December, in South Africa, a country that recorded a million coronavirus infections that same week. Following the story and the world’s quest for an effective cure, this article now focuses on the concomitant issue of vaccine distribution across Africa even as the continent grapples with a deadly second wave of the pandemic.



Different countries have taken different approaches to securing their supply of vaccines. In North Africa, for example, Morocco has secured over 65 million doses, some of which has come from China’s Sinopharm and Britain’s AstraZeneca and Oxford supplies. The country aims to have at least 80% of its population vaccinated with this supply.



South Africa, having joined the COVAX coalition, has secured 20 million doses thus far. The country’s government is using a phased approach with healthcare workers being the first to receive the vaccine, and the continent’s second largest economy aims to have 60% of the overall population vaccinated to initiate herd immunity.



Other countries look to their alliances with China and Russia to provide vaccine doses. While countries have had to ensure the security of their supply first, other issues around the vaccine are also to be considered which in turn plays a deciding role in the type of Covid-19 vaccine a country needs.



One such issue is storage. The current vaccines that have been approved as a result of their high efficacy rates pose a difficult challenge when it comes to shipping and storage. There are certain conditions that have to be met to ensure that a vaccine is stored successfully and still viable for use after being shipped.



This is where the vaccine cold chain comes in. The cold chain is the network of cold storage facilities that are used through every key stage of the vaccines’ journey; from the manufacturing line to their eventual use in a syringe. Proper storage and handling of vaccines during the cold chain process ensures that no part of the vaccine being transported degrades and becomes unusable for treatment.



Part of the cold chain process is also temperature regulation and includes all equipment and procedures required during the transportation and storage process.



Africa faces a unique challenge in the area of storage. With vaccines requiring resilience in being able to travel across great distances and many facilities, particularly in rural areas not reaching the requirements for long-term storage, certain vaccines have had to be ruled out.



There are enough examples now of businesses and services in this critical area. iKhaya Automation Solutions is a temperature monitoring specialist based in Pietermaritzburg, a town in the province of KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa. The company has received accreditation from the World Health Organization (WHO) which is critical in the roll-out and storage of vaccines on the African continent.



Eckart Zollner, the sales and marketing executive of iKhaya, says the accreditation could not have come at a more critical juncture. “The temperature of every vaccine (and indeed all temperature-sensitive pharmaceuticals) must be kept as advised by the manufacturers during transport and storage to preserve the vaccine’s effectiveness and safety once administered,” says Zollner.



Temperature monitoring systems such as the ones provided by iKhaya are a key component to ensuring that the viability of a vaccine is maintained throughout the cold chain process. Devices manufactured by iKhaya have been deployed at a number of different storage facilities and laboratories that have been involved in the vaccine process.



“Vaccine storage at the recommended temperatures in Africa is not easy to achieve,” says Zollner.



In order for the accreditation to be achieved, a number of compliances and regulations had to be met. The criteria included a thorough examination of the devices and quality of technology being used in its mechanisms for measurement. There were also strict regulations on how the devices interacted with the environment and the alert systems in place should the temperature and condition of the vaccine face being compromised. Zollner elaborates on the importance of data analysis and data storage systems that were also in place and part of the approval of the accreditation process as “it has been quite an intricate and rigorous process in ensuring our data systems matched the criteria set out by WHO”.



Given that the storage of the vaccine is determined by the specific temperature range, the devices created have to ensure that the temperature regulation processes can be monitored in real-time and breaches can be controlled immediately.



“The alerts have a three-level hierarchy to ensure that personnel are able to act accordingly and before temperatures reach a critical juncture and the vaccine is compromised,&#8221; says Zollner. 



In Africa, there are also other issues in the cold chain process. One of them, power.



“Electricity supplies have proven to be unstable in some parts of Africa, which is not ideal for temperature regulation devices; the consistent maintenance of electricity, particularly in rural areas is needed for vaccines to maintain their efficacy,” adds Zollner.



Training is also of importance as personnel needs to be well-versed in the temperature regulation measures needed for the storage of a particular vaccine. Zollner also mentions the lack of qualified staff in certain regions.



Another critical issue is the actual distribution of the vaccine within an African context.



The distribution of Covid-19 vaccines also comes with a subset of issues. Dr John Sargent, one of the co-founders of BroadReach Healthcare, spoke to FORBES AFRICA on some of the issues in Africa.



Sargent explains that the model of distribution for the Covid-19 vaccine is a complex one.



“When you think about from when a vaccine gets into a country to when it gets put into someone’s arm, especially those that require two doses, there are literally a thousand steps that need to happen first,” notes Sargent.



One of the first things that need to happen in each country is regulatory approval.



The second consideration, once approval has been granted, is budget.



“The cost of the actual vaccine is only part of the cost, the cost for the vaccine process needs to be taken into account, this includes costs for syringes, alcohol swabs, personnel to administer the vaccine, and it just continues from there.”



The third area, according to Sargent, is supply chain logistics which he foresees as being a challenge, especially due to the cold chain process. He reasons that this can be overcome by explaining that “in many of the countries I have been in sub- Saharan Africa, I could get ice cream”. 



By this, he means partnering with industries and companies in the private sector and using their facilities as an innovation within the cold chain process.



Apart from the technicalities around distribution, Sargent mentions more intrinsic social issues such as community awareness and adherence as potential concerns.



Sargent feels education needs to happen through communication strategies and exploring avenues such as social media campaigns and community programs.



The last thing Sargent feels is needed is effective project management.



By this, he refers to technical nuances such as an effective data management system or how vaccine candidates are being catalogued and the logistics around key facilities that would offer vaccination.



Understanding the supply chain in distributing the vaccine is going to be instrumental in ensuring that the vaccination process is as widespread as it needs to be.



With different countries adopting different approaches in how the vaccine is distributed, only time will tell which has been the most effective in making Covid-19 a thing of the past.



<div class="wp-block-group has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-background"><div class="wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow">
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-style-default"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="738" height="544" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Screenshot-2021-02-10-at-10.25.02.png" alt="" class="wp-image-49978" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Screenshot-2021-02-10-at-10.25.02.png 738w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Screenshot-2021-02-10-at-10.25.02-300x221.png 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Screenshot-2021-02-10-at-10.25.02-600x442.png 600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 738px) 100vw, 738px" /></figure>



Storage conditions of the vaccines currently available: Currently, there are at least five vaccines that have approval and are being rolled out in different parts of the globe. Each of these vaccines have different storage requirements in terms of the temperatures required to ensure they remain viable. The reason for this is due to the components of each vaccine and how they have been structured biologically.



BNT162b2 (Pfizer and BioNTech): This vaccine needs to be shipped and stored at temperatures between -60 to -80°C. It can be stored for up to five days in normal refrigerator conditions (2-8°C) before use and has a shelf life of up to six months under the right storage conditions.



mRNA-1273 (Moderna): This vaccine has easier conditions to meet than the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine as it only needs to be shipped and stored at temperatures between -15 to -25°C, the average temperature of a freezer. It can also be stored in refrigerator conditions for up to 30 days and also has a shelf life of six months.



AZD1222 (AstraZeneca and Oxford): The vaccine created by AstraZeneca and Oxford has the easiest conditions in terms of storage as it can be stored and shipped at temperatures between 2-8°C, the average temperature of a refrigerator. It can also be stored at these temperatures for up to six months without use.



CoronaVac (Sinovac): This vaccine uses an inactivated vaccine approach and as such, can be stored at refrigerator temperatures (between 2-8°C) for extended periods of time.



Sputnik V (Gamaleya): Using a viral vector approach, the viral vector vaccine can be stored at refrigerator temperatures when in dry mass form, and at temperatures of around -18.5°C in liquid form.
</div></div>

JAPAN-HEALTH-VIRUS

Virus, Vaccine, And Viability

TOPLINE The World Health Organization team investigating the origins of Covid-19 has not been able to uncover the source of the virus or meaningfully change our understanding of the pandemic, the group said Tuesday, though it did rule out the idea commonly touted by former President Trump that the virus escaped from a Wuhan laboratory. 



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h4>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>In a joint press conference led by members of WHO and Chinese delegations, experts said their two weeks in the field had uncovered new information but had not dramatically changed the picture of the pandemic. </li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Peter Ben Embarek, who chaired the WHO team, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/09/wuhan-laboratory-leak-covid-origin-theory-unlikely-says-who-team" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a> the theory that the virus escaped from a Wuhan lab is “extremely unlikely” and does not merit further study, pointing to a lack of work on similar viruses “anywhere in the world” and a strong set of lab procedures making it “very unlikely that anything could escape from that place.”</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Embarek said the most likely hypothesis remains the virus entering humans through an intermediary species—evidence suggests this could be bats or pangolins—but said the group was unable to identify a natural animal reservoir for the virus and further research would be needed.  </li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Embarek said further work was also needed to evaluate two other theories, such as whether the virus could have entered into humans from an animal reservoir directly or if frozen products were involved “in the introduction of the virus over a distance”. </li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>According to the Guardian, the Chinese delegation, which spoke first, heavily emphasized the latter theory, in fitting with ongoing efforts by officials to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/29/a-year-after-wuhan-alarm-china-seeks-to-change-covid-origin-story" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">relocate</a> the virus’ origins overseas.  </li></ul>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-we-don-t-know">WHAT WE DON’T KNOW</h4>



After months of tense buildup and diplomatic back and forth to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/01/11/china-finally-green-lights-who-investigation-into-coronavirus-origins-as-daily-covid-19-cases-spike-to-five-month-high/?sh=3f87ad3b6511">greenlight</a>&nbsp;the WHO investigation, the origins of Covid-19 remain a mystery. It is unclear whether further investigations will receive approval from the authorities, and despite its continued claims of cooperation for the mission, China repeatedly refused to authorize a visit and even&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/01/06/who-chief-very-disappointed-as-china-blocks-entry-of-experts-studying-origins-of-covid-19/?sh=7ee973c347d4">blocked</a>&nbsp;the team’s arrival as they were leaving their home countries. It now says its side of the investigation is over, adding that this is just the “first part” of the WHO’s “global origin tracing work.”&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-background">KEY BACKGROUND</h4>



Amid manifold failures and mounting criticism, China became a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2020/04/25/republicans-see-attacks-on-china-as-a-winning-strategy-for-2020/#52bc901a3473">target</a>&nbsp;for Trump and Republicans looking to cast blame for the Covid-19 crisis in the United States. Beyond the virus being first detected there, the former President and his officials repeatedly pushed, without evidence, the idea that the virus also&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2020/05/10/a-timeline-of-the-covid-19-wuhan-lab-origin-theory/?sh=7589d49b5aba">leaked</a>&nbsp;from a lab in Wuhan. Trump once said he had a “high degree of confidence” in the Wuhan lab theory, while Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said there was “enormous evidence” the claim was true.&nbsp;



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-further-reading">FURTHER READING</h4>



<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/09/wuhan-laboratory-leak-covid-origin-theory-unlikely-says-who-team" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Wuhan laboratory leak Covid origin theory &#8216;unlikely&#8217;, says WHO team</a>&nbsp;(Guardian)



<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2020/05/10/a-timeline-of-the-covid-19-wuhan-lab-origin-theory/?sh=7589d49b5aba">A Timeline Of The COVID-19 Wuhan Lab Origin Theory</a>&nbsp;(Forbes)



<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/01/11/china-finally-green-lights-who-investigation-into-coronavirus-origins-as-daily-covid-19-cases-spike-to-five-month-high/?sh=3f87ad3b6511">China Finally Green Lights WHO Investigation Into Coronavirus Origins As Daily Covid-19 Cases Spike To Five-Month High</a>&nbsp;(Forbes)



By Robert Hart, Forbes Staff

CHINA-HEALTH-VIRUS

Wuhan Lab Theory ‘Extremely Unlikely’ Covid-19 Source, WHO Concludes—Correcting A Trump White House Claim

The UNICEF released a report in November last year titled COVID-19: A Catastrophe for Children in Sub-Saharan Africa, stating that prolonged school closures due to Covid-19 have presented multiple problems in the sub-Saharan African region. There is now a higher rate of teenage pregnancy, poor nutrition, and permanent dropouts from school.



Furthermore, the report read: “School closures have caused the number of children and adolescents not going to school to rise from around 100 million before the pandemic to 350 million.” A classroom report of different countries:



NIGERIA



Despite the fact that Nigeria is battling with the second wave of the pandemic, learners returned to school on January 18 this year. However, the House of Representatives asked the government to postpone the reopening by three months, due to the increasing number of Covid-19 deaths.



<div class="wp-block-image is-style-default"><figure class="alignleft size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1230667585-1024x683.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-49958" width="335" height="223" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1230667585-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1230667585-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1230667585-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1230667585-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1230667585-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1230667585-600x400.jpg 600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 335px) 100vw, 335px" /><figcaption> (Photo by Olukayode Jaiyeola/NurPhoto via Getty Images)</figcaption></figure></div>



&#8220;We are particularly concerned that when the infection rates hovered around 500 and under, schools were closed but now that it hovers well above 1,000 infections daily, schools are being reopened. Why are we rushing to reopen schools without adequate verifiable and sustainable arrangements to protect and secure our children?” The House Committee on Basic Education and Services stated in a press release, reported This Day.



SOUTH AFRICA



The government announced on January 15 that schools will remain closed until February 15. This is due to concerns around the country’s more serious second Covid-19 wave. Teachers have had to report to schools at the beginning of February.



At the end of January the country&#8217;s Basic education Minister, Angie Motshekga, indicated in a gazette that the return of students will be staggered. Business Tech further reported that private school pupils will be allowed to return to school two weeks earlier than their public school counterparts.



KENYA



<div class="wp-block-image is-style-default"><figure class="aligncenter size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1230423366-1024x683.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-49956" width="444" height="295" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1230423366-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1230423366-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1230423366-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1230423366-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1230423366-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1230423366-600x400.jpg 600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 444px) 100vw, 444px" /><figcaption>. (Photo by Dennis Sigwe/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)</figcaption></figure></div>



Schools in Kenya reopened at the beginning of the year after being closed since March 2020. VOA News reported that Kenya has yet to contain the pandemic and there are concerns among teachers and parents about being exposed to the infection.



ZIMBABWE



<div class="wp-block-image is-style-default"><figure class="alignright size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1230436018-1024x678.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-49957" width="267" height="177" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1230436018-1024x678.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1230436018-300x199.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1230436018-768x508.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1230436018-1536x1017.jpg 1536w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1230436018-2048x1356.jpg 2048w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1230436018-600x397.jpg 600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 267px) 100vw, 267px" /><figcaption> (Photo by Tafadzwa Ufumeli/Getty Images)</figcaption></figure></div>



At the end of last year, the country announced it would postpone the date schools reopen. Originally, learners were to return on January 4, but a new date would be announced in due course. This, however, is not only due to the pandemic but also coupled with the threat of flooding posed by Cyclone Chalane.



eSWATINI



After eSwatini strengthened its lockdown regulations on January 7, with a spike in Covid-19 cases, Deputy Prime Minister Themba Masuku announced that schools would remain closed indefinitely.



According to the SABC, the President of the Swaziland National Association of Teachers in eSwatini, Mbongwa Dlamini, commended the government for postponing the reopening of schools.



“As a trade union of teachers, we are saying that the government should make sure that before schools are open, the schools should be safe for teaching and learning. So if the schools are not safe for teaching and learning, it is best for the government to wait.”

KENYA-HEALTH-VIRUS-EDUCATION

Covid’s Effects On African Classrooms

As 2021 begins, for the third week in a row, the number of new <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/latest-on-coronavirus-outbreak/for-3rd-week-covid-19-cases-fall-globally-who/2130519">COVID-19 cases globally has fallen</a>.



But over the past year, we have seen countries flatten the curve only to let their guard down. This complacency even found in nations with advanced healthcare systems, costs lives and devastated livelihoods.



While the prospect of vaccines in 2021 provides hope in defeating this virus, UN Secretary-General António Guterres&#8217;s message that &#8216;there is no panacea in a pandemic&#8217; is clear. Robust public health measures centred around the scientifically proven steps that prevent the spread of COVID-19 remain the most practical response. To its credit, China has set a good example by adopting this approach, as I have witnessed firsthand.



As the incoming UN Resident Coordinator to China, I travelled to Guangzhou from Kenya. In Kenya, I served in the same capacity, and as a <a href="https://kenya.un.org/en/107185-these-should-be-our-build-back-better-priorities-2021">UN Country Team in Kenya we joined the Government of Kenya in confronting the pandemic head on</a>.



And in my new role I was not and should not be afforded any preferential treatment on my arrival.



The rules were clear. From the very point of embarking for China, I was subject to the same requirements mandating certificate proof of a negative COVID-19 nucleic acid and IgM antibody test issued no more than two days before travel.



These tests form just part of a comprehensive testing and tracing system found in China, critical to preventing future outbreaks and clusters.



Upon arrival<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/siddharthchatterjee1un_covid19-activity-6756771231833317376-LWNB">, I noted the rigorous and orderly entry screening practices enforced in China</a>, with officials wearing appropriate personal protective equipment as they checked incoming travellers for signs and symptoms.



Like all passengers arriving in China, officials directed me to a designated hotel to complete a 21-day quarantine period.



These inconveniences are necessary to ensure controlling the spread of COVID-19 at the port of entry. I commend these well-orchestrated actions across a range of government departments to ensure the health and safety of the people in China, regardless of nationality is the highest priority.



I began my work in quarantine on 16 January 2021, preparing for my duties as Resident Coordinator and communicating virtually with new colleagues from the UN system in China. I look forward to greeting them in person and forging partnerships with the Government of China, development partners, academia, the private sector and many new and existing stakeholders.



During this, I have managed my time with a sense of purpose, as I kept in touch with loved ones, catching up on reading, writing, and reflecting. This was my first time in quarantine and a rigorous fitness regimen, combined with breathing exercises and a bit of yoga proved to be critical for keeping my mind and body sharp, positively buoyant and in fine fettle. I even managed to clock an average of 20,000 steps a day.



<div class="wp-block-image is-style-default"><figure class="aligncenter size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Sid-Head-Stand-1-768x1024.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-49904" width="515" height="687" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Sid-Head-Stand-1-768x1024.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Sid-Head-Stand-1-225x300.jpg 225w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Sid-Head-Stand-1-1152x1536.jpg 1152w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Sid-Head-Stand-1-1536x2048.jpg 1536w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Sid-Head-Stand-1-300x400.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Sid-Head-Stand-1-600x800.jpg 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Sid-Head-Stand-1-scaled.jpg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 515px) 100vw, 515px" /><figcaption>The author doing a headstand in his hotel room. Yoga and breathing exercises are a good way to stay fit and achieve equilibrium particularly during quarantine.</figcaption></figure></div>



While I eagerly await the outside world upon the safe completion of this quarantine period on 06 February 2021, I know that the virus is still out there, mutating and turning more aggressive.



Recent COVID-19 outbreaks ahead of the Lunar New Year have alarmed authorities in China, who have responded in kind with proactive and aggressive measures.



Spring travel or &#8216;Chunyun&#8217; to be with families in this special time has been discouraged in certain municipalities in China, which happens to one of the world&#8217;s largest annual migration.



I acknowledge that these responses can place strain on our happiness and well-being, but it is critical that we not lose sight of our goal to defeat the virus.



This task still requires that we do all we can to protect each other. Governments, societies, and individuals everywhere must continue to encourage wearing masks, physically distancing, observing good hygiene etiquette and above all spreading compassion and not the virus.



These actions in unison with strengthening our testing, tracking and isolation systems will ensure our efforts on vaccines are not in vain with their rollout in the coming year.



With simple public health measures informed by science as adopted here in China, the world can slow the virus&#8217;s spread, save lives and livelihoods and end the pandemic.



I look forward to joining the UN family in China and we will continue to work in lockstep with the Government of China to fight COVID-19 and advancing universal health coverage.



Siddharth Chatterjee, 常启德 is the United Nations Resident Coordinator(designate) to China. Follow him on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/@sidchat1">@sidchat1</a>.

Health Checks at the airport

In Prevention Still Lies the Cure: Thoughts On China’s Fight Against COVID-19

Topline: A more placid Cyril Ramaphosa addressed the nation on Monday evening. Only three weeks ago, the South African president had banned alcohol sales and closed borders at the peak of the second wave of the pandemic. In his address, he also presented a clearer picture related to Covid-19 vaccines, having personally received the first batch that landed earlier in the day.



<figure class="wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Good morning 🇿🇦. President <a href="https://twitter.com/CyrilRamaphosa?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CyrilRamaphosa</a> will receive the country&#39;s 1-million doses of the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/COVID19?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#COVID19</a> vaccine, AstraZeneca, today. The first consignment of the vaccine will target frontline workers. Read more: tps://bit.ly/3cuFJQa <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/VaccineforSouthAfrica?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#VaccineforSouthAfrica</a> <a href="https://t.co/ssmuds8thH">pic.twitter.com/ssmuds8thH</a>&mdash; South African Government (@GovernmentZA) <a href="https://twitter.com/GovernmentZA/status/1356116939299577859?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 1, 2021</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">Key Facts</h4>



● On February 1, South Africa watched as an Emirates flight carrying the first consignment of Covid-19 vaccines arrived at OR Tambo International Airport with one million AstraZeneca doses. In addition to that, another 500,000 doses are expected to arrive later this month, also from the Serum Institute of India. The country has also secured 12 million doses in total from the global COVAX facility, which has indicated that it will release approximately 2 million doses by March. Johnson &amp; Johnson will commence with the delivery of 9 million doses by the second quarter of 2021.



<figure class="wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">The first consignment of the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/COVID19?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#COVID19</a> vaccine touched down on South African soil today. Working together, we can beat the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/coronavirus?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#coronavirus</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/VaccinesforSouthAfrica?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#VaccinesforSouthAfrica</a> <a href="https://t.co/0H7349fALP">pic.twitter.com/0H7349fALP</a>&mdash; South African Government (@GovernmentZA) <a href="https://twitter.com/GovernmentZA/status/1356291010939248646?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 1, 2021</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



● Ramaphosa also announced, as the African Union (AU) Chairperson, that through the African Vaccine Acquisition Task Team of the AU, one billion doses of the vaccine have been secured for the entire African continent.



● “Seven hundred million of these will come from the global COVAX facility and 300 million have been facilitated by the African Vaccine Acquisition Task Team,” Ramaphosa said in his address.



● The president has reiterated that no one will be forced to take the vaccine against their will.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-easing-of-restrictions">The Easing of Restrictions?</h4>



● Alongside news regarding the distribution of vaccines in South Africa, the president also announced the easing of restrictions put in place on January 11.



● “We are pleased that across the country, most people are adhering to the restrictions we have had to impose and are diligently observing the basic health measures needed to prevent infection,” Ramaphosa said.



● The country will stay at Alert Level Three of the lockdown but the following changes will be made to the restrictions:



○ The curfew will now be from 11PM to 4AM.



○ However, establishments will need to close by 10PM to allow customers and staff to return home by curfew.



○ Faith-based gatherings will be permitted, but may not exceed 50 people for indoor venues and 100 persons for outdoor venues.



○ Public places such as beaches, dams, rivers, parks, and public swimming pools will be reopened.



○ The sale of alcohol by licensed premises for off-site consumption will be permitted from Mondays to Thursdays, from 10AM to 6PM.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-crucial-quote">Crucial quote</h4>



The president was happy to report that South Africa has recorded the lowest daily increase in infections since the beginning of December last year.



“In fact, the average rate of new infections has been steadily coming down over the last three weeks, indicating that we have now passed the peak of the second wave,” Ramaphosa said.

Covid-19 Vaccinations In Wolverhampton

Africa Secures A Billion Covid-19 Vaccine Doses, Says AU Chair Ramaphosa

Despite the rollout of Covid-19 vaccinations across the country, two of the nation’s top infectious disease experts say it’s too early for Americans to be making travel plans.



“I want to emphasize that now is not a good time to be traveling, period, internationally or domestically,” said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), during a virtual&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/27/app-news-section/full-coronavirus-town-hall-january-27/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">CNN global town hall</a>&nbsp;hosted by Anderson Cooper and Dr. Sanjay Gupta.



Dr. Walensky was there to discuss the Covid-19 pandemic along with Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and chair of the Covid-19 health equity task force Dr. Marcella Nunez-Smith.



Dr. Walensky said she favored more Covid-19 testing for travelers. “As part of the American Rescue Act, we have a budget for a lot more testing,” she said, noting that much of that budget is going to be earmarked for testing in schools. “But I would really like to see much of that budget, and I think the Biden administration as well, to use it for high-risk activities. And one of those high-risk activities would be for travel and domestic flights.”



A town hall audience member asked how soon after receiving her second Covid-19 shot could she safely travel.



“Getting vaccinated does not say you have a free pass to travel,” said Dr. Fauci. “Nor does it say you have a free pass to put aside all the public health measures that we talk about all the time.”



“You can get some degree of protection that isn’t durable 10 days to 14 days after the first dose, but you can’t rely on that,” said Dr. Fauci. “The maximum immunity begins about 10 days to two weeks and beyond following the second dose. That goes for anyone, regardless of whether you want to travel or not.”



But Dr. Fauci underscored that even a second dose of the vaccine wasn’t a permission slip to travel. “That would give you as a group about a 94 to 95% efficacy and a good safety profile. The situation, though, does not change what Dr. Walensky said. It is not a good idea to travel, period. We don’t want people to think that because they got vaccinated that other public health recommendations just don’t apply.”



Dr. Walensky reminded the town hall audience that the current CDC guidelines for international travel are very strict. The current recommendation calls for a viral test for Covid-19 several days before travel, as well as self quarantining and getting another test after you return home.



Dr. Fauci addressed why it was still important to wear a face mask after getting a second shot. “The reason is very clear that the primary endpoint of the vaccine trial was clinically apparent infections. So you could conceivably get infected, get no symptoms, and still have virus in your nasopharynx.”



It’s possible that people who have been vaccinated may still be able to get infected with a very low level of virus, said Dr. Fauci. “You would have to wear a mask to prevent you from infecting someone else, as well as the other side of the coin, where you may not be totally protected yourself.”



“We do not know as a fact” that getting vaccinated prevents someone from spreading a future infection, said Dr. Fauci, who noted that the government plans a quantitative study to compare the virus levels in vaccinated people with asymptomatic infections versus the levels in unvaccinated people with asymptomatic infections.



“It’s unlikely if you got such a low level of infection that you would pass it on but we don’t know that yet,” said Dr. Fauci. “This is an assumption that I think is reasonable, but we don’t know the facts yet. That’s the reason we have to do this study.”



READ MORE



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By Suzanne Rowan Kelleher, Forbes Staff

Tag: COVID-19 testing

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