In the wake of contested presidential election results, Gabon faces a coup declared by senior military officers, forming the &#8220;Committee of Transition and the Restoration of Institutions.&#8221; This marks the eighth coup in West and Central Africa since 2020.



In Gabon, a group of senior military officers has declared a coup following the presidential election results announced last weekend. The officers leading the coup, deeming their movement the “Committee of Transition and the Restoration of Institutions”, appeared on national television today, alleging they represent all defense and security bodies in the country. They declared the election results null and void, closed all borders, and dissolved state institutions. This move comes after the incumbent president, Ali Bongo, won a third term in the presidential election with 64.27% of the vote, while the opposition claimed the election was fraudulent.



“After noting an irresponsible, unpredictable governance which results in continuous deterioration of social cohesion that risks leading the country to chaos… we have decided to defend peace by putting an end to the regime in place,” said an unidentified military leader during the televized address announcing the takeover.



The coup, if successful, would mark the eighth coup in West and Central Africa since 2020. Recent coups in neighboring countries like Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Niger, have hampered democratic progress in the region.



Tensions were already high in Gabon due to concerns about the transparency of the electoral process, including the suspension of foreign broadcasts, the cutting of internet access, and the imposition of a nationwide curfew during the vote.



State institutions dissolved include the government, the senate, the national assembly, the constitutional court, and the election body. The coup attempt raises questions about the future political landscape in Gabon and the potential for further instability in the region. Gabon has a reported history of election-related violence, with clashes between government forces and protesters in past elections resulting in casualties. The opposition has also contested previous election results, accusing President Bongo, who has ruled for around 14 years, of fraud.



In the broader context, Gabon has faced challenges related to its political and economic landscape. The Bongo family has been in power for decades, with Ali Bongo succeeding his father, Omar Bongo, as president in 2009. This prolonged rule has raised concerns about democracy and transparency in the country.



Gabon is resource-rich, with substantial oil and cocoa reserves, but also faces high levels of poverty and inequality.



The military&#8217;s involvement in politics is not new in Gabon, having foiled a coup attempt in 2019, and its influence on the political landscape has been a subject of concern by observers.



As the situation unfolds, it remains uncertain how the international community will respond. Regional and international organizations have yet to issue statements condemning the coup and calling for a return to democratic governance, but are likely closely observing developments.



With the situation still developing and information scarce, reports of gunfire have been noted in the capital of Libreville, but information is scarce due to the internet blackout imposed.

Aerial View of Capital City Libreville & Coastline

Gabon’s Military Declares Coup Amid Election Dispute

The recent coup in Niger has escalated tensions in West Africa as the junta defies ECOWAS&#8217;s deadline for reinstating President Mohamed Bazoum.



Niger has closed its airspace following the expiration of a deadline imposed by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) for the reinstatement of elected President Mohamed Bazoum. This comes after Bazoum was ousted in a coup by a military junta, marking a significant crisis in West Africa&#8217;s diplomatic landscape.



ECOWAS, a regional political and economic union of fifteen West African countries, has been pushing for democratic stability in the region, and military action to reinstate the president is now a possibility. The situation has attracted international attention, with the coup igniting tensions in an already fragile part of the continent.



The coup, which was declared last month by the head of the Presidential Guard, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, blamed a lack of economic growth and continuing insecurity for the ousting of Bazoum. However, the country has long seen divisions between the democratic political sphere and the military, with the last coup attempt being mere days before Bazoum’s inauguration in 2021.



Niger under Bazoum has served as a critical strongpoint for the European Union in an attempt to block illegal migration from Africa, and an important ally from which France has based its military operations on the continent after relations with Malian authorities soured last year. The United States also considers Niger an ally, and has supported the country with foreign aid, some of which has been paused in light of the coup.



African heads of state as well as European and American bodies have condemned the coup, and ECOWAS’ stated deadline for Bazoum’s reinstatement reflected the body’s hard stance against his deposition.



However, the closure of Nigerien airspace yesterday indicates that the junta will not comply with demands, increasing tensions, as it remains to be seen whether this non-compliance will result in a military invention by ECOWAS in the already unstable region.

Demonstration of coup supporters in Niger

Niger Airspace Closure Signals Deepening Crisis As ECOWAS Deadline Passes

In the wake of a military coup in Niger and condemnation from international bodies, the uncertainty raises concerns about regional stability.



As dawn broke over Niamey, the capital city of Niger, a startling announcement was made yesterday on national television – soldiers had detained President Mohamed Bazoum and declared an end to the current regime. A cascade of reactions from regional and international bodies followed, denouncing the move as an attempted coup. This situation not only exacerbates an already turbulent political landscape in Niger but also portends significant economic implications set to reverberate across the region.



Moussa Faki, Chairperson of the African Union Commission, condemned the military &#8220;acting in total betrayal of their republican duty,&#8221; urging the &#8220;felon soldiers&#8221; to return to their barracks in a statement late yesterday. Despite the plea and international condemnation, the president remains in custody, leaving the country teetering on the precipice of uncertainty. The regional bloc, ECOWAS, also decried the situation, imploring the soldiers to release the president immediately.



The coup is reportedly led by the presidential guard, who have taken Bazoum and several ministers captive. According to AFP sources, the president and the ministers are safe and unharmed. The situation remains fluid, and information is limited.



Beyond the immediate political upheaval, the long-term economic implications could be damning. If the situation further deteriorates, Niger, which ranks near the bottom of the United Nation’s (UN) Human Development Index and grapples with two jihadist campaigns, could face even more significant challenges. Already struggling with widespread poverty and insecurity, an unstable government could further discourage foreign investment and aid, potentially stifling the nation&#8217;s growth prospects.



Moreover, the country&#8217;s crucial mining sector, which includes uranium and gold, could face dire consequences. A destabilized government often leads to supply disruptions, which could send shockwaves through global commodity markets and impact Niger&#8217;s revenue streams, considering mining accounts for a significant chunk of the nation&#8217;s GDP.



US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in a media briefing on the situation yesterday, observed: “Whether this constitutes a coup technically or not, I can&#8217;t say… but what it clearly constitutes is an effort to seize power by force and to disrupt the constitution.&#8221; This disruption could signify a regression from the democratic principles the nation has been striving to uphold since its last coup in 2010.



In a regional context, the fallout from this coup attempt can further destabilize the Sahel region. Neighboring countries of Mali and Burkina Faso, which have both experienced military coups in recent years due to escalating jihadist insurgencies, contribute to the region&#8217;s instability.



UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized the need for democratic governance, peace, and stability, denouncing any efforts to seize power by force. In a statement yesterday, the UN pledged unwavering support to the government and people of Niger: &#8220;The Secretary-General calls on all actors involved to exercise restraint and to ensure the protection of constitutional order,&#8221; Guterres said.



As Niger teeters on the brink, the region and the world watch closely, hopeful for a swift and peaceful resolution.

Niger presidency confirms coup attempt, says President Bazoum and his family safe

Coup In Niger: Leaders Condemn Seizing Power By Force

TOPLINE More than 500 people have been killed by Myanmar’s military junta since it took power on February 1, the local monitoring body reported Monday, highlighting the brutal crackdown the country’s military rulers have enacted since overthrowing the country’s democratically elected government.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-facts">KEY FACTS</h4>



<ul><li>As of Monday night, the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP), <a href="https://aappb.org/?p=13942+" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">reported</a> a total of 510 civilians killed by the military government—including 14 who were shot dead on Monday—but warned that its numbers could be an undercount.</li></ul>



<ul><li>According to the report, security forces used a heavy caliber weapon—believed to be a grenade launcher—at protestors crouching behind barricades in Yangon, causing eight civilian deaths on Monday. </li></ul>



<ul><li>Pro-democracy protesters have reacted to Monday’s toll by launching a “garbage strike” in Yangon, which has caused a massive pile-up of garbage in the country’s capital, Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics/myanmar-protesters-launch-garbage-strike-as-death-toll-tops-500-idUSKBN2BM07K" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">reported</a>.</li></ul>



<ul><li>Violence in the country could escalate further after the General Strike Committee of Nationalities—one of the larger protest groups in the country—has sought support from various insurgent groups in the country.</li></ul>



<ul><li>Three such insurgent groups which represent various ethnic minorities in the country—Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army (AA), and Ta’ang National Liberation Army—warned the military junta that they will join the fight if the killing of protestors continued, the Reuters report added.</li></ul>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-big-number">BIG NUMBER</h4>



141. That’s the total number of protestors who were killed on Saturday in Myanmar, making it by the bloodiest day of the protests so far. According to the AAPP, the country’s military rulers have detained or arrested at least 2,574 protestors so far.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-chief-critic">CHIEF CRITIC</h4>



“It is absolutely unacceptable to see violence against people at such high levels, so many people killed, and such a stubborn refusal to accept the need to liberate all political prisoners and to make the country go back to a serious democratic transition,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres&nbsp;<a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/escalating-myanmar-violence-unacceptable-un-chief/articleshow/81748318.cms" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">told</a>&nbsp;a news conference on Monday. Guterres then urged the country’s military dictators to&nbsp; undertake a “serious democratic transition.”



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-tangent">TANGENT</h4>



The Biden administration reacted to the increasingly bloody crackdown by Myanmar’s security forces by announcing on Monday that it was&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/melissaholzberg/2021/03/29/us-suspends-all-trade-with-myanmar-amid-military-takeover/?sh=2b5848cd30f4">scrapping a trade deal</a>&nbsp;with the country which was signed in 2013. The United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai announced the suspension of the trade agreement on Twitter,&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/AmbassadorTai/status/1376539087352569857?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1376539088308858886%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fscroll.in%2Flatest%2F990911%2Fus-suspends-trade-deal-with-myanmar-in-response-to-military-crackdown-on-anti-coup-protests" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">adding</a>: “We support the people of Burma’s efforts to restore a democratically-elected government, which has been the foundation of Burma’s economic growth and reform.”



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-background">KEY BACKGROUND</h4>



Myanmar’s military staged a coup in February and announced it would take&nbsp; charge of the country for one year. The military leaders have alleged, without evidence, that the National League for Democracy (NLD) party and its leader Aung San Suu Kyi fraudulently won the country’s most recent elections. Citing the election fraud as a reason, the junta came into power by invoking a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/02/01/myanmar-military-coup/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">clause</a>&nbsp;in the country’s constitution that permits an armed takeover of the government. The coup has faced major opposition both abroad and at home. Several countries including the U.S., U.K., Canada along with the European Union have imposed sanctions against the country’s military leaders. Within Myanmar, the coup has been met with massive protests from the country’s civilian population who have demanded the release of Suu Kyi, the country’s former leader.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-further-reading">FURTHER READING</h4>



<a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/myanmar-coup-crackdown-death-toll-passes-500-14521988" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Myanmar crackdown death toll passes 500</a>&nbsp;(AFP)



<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics/myanmar-protesters-launch-garbage-strike-as-death-toll-tops-500-idUSKBN2BM07K" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Myanmar protesters launch &#8216;garbage strike&#8217; as death toll tops 500</a> (Reuters)



By <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/">Si</a>laditya Ray, Forbes Staff

Civil Disobedience Continues As Death Toll Mounts In Myanmar

Myanmar Security Forces Have Killed More Than 500 People Since February Coup

Not too long ago, West Africa – from regional behemoth Nigeria to smaller states like Liberia and Sierra Leone – was bedeviled by coups and civil wars. Now, there is not a major civil war in the region and it has been a very long time since there was a coup.
A sign of the times was the recent, and peaceful, elections in once war-torn Liberia. There have, however, been agitations in Togo and Guinea, with leaders and families staying in power too long. It used to be the case that longtime leaders provided an air of stability. Entrenched over time, the price of this seeming peace has been the commonwealth, with their countries’ resources concentrated in the hands of ruling family members and their cronies.
Things are beginning to change though. In January last year, Gambians kicked longtime leader, Yahya Jammeh, out of power. A peaceful resolution to what could have been a major crisis was aided by the deft handling of leaders in the region under the aegis of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Now, West African leaders know that if they want to rule, the only route is via the ballot box. The situation in Côte d’Ivoire, where a heated succession battle is ongoing, needs to be closely monitored, but peace is unlikely to be disturbed.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/investment-guide/2017/10/30/west-africa-less-attractive-investors/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Why Is West Africa Less Attractive To Investors?</a>
Months ago, Togolese, perhaps taking a cue from Gambians, took to the streets to stop an attempt by their second generation president from the Gnassingbé family to extend his rule. In 2005, Faure Gnassingbé succeeded his father, Eyadéma Gnassingbé, who had been in power since 1967 until his death. The protests were effective. In September, the Togolese parliament adopted proposals that would limit the number of terms any individual can serve as president to two five-year terms; albeit a boycott by opposition MPs meant a referendum would be needed to change the constitution, since the parliamentary vote fell short of the four-fifths majority needed.
The opposition’s gripe is that President Gnassingbé would still be able to contest and stay in power for an additional 10 years, after already serving three terms. Should that be the case, his family would have ruled Togo for at least 60 years.
Further west, Guineans also took to the streets over fears that President Alpha Condé might change the constitution to allow him to contest for a third term in 2020, after already serving consecutive five-year terms. They were also venting over economic difficulties amid vast mineral wealth – a third of the world’s aluminium ore bauxite reserves are in Guinea.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/investment-guide/2017/07/20/tough-times-cocoa-bean-counters/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Tough Times For Cocoa Bean Counters</a>
Ordinarily, these are populations that tend to be reserved; in part due to their culture, but also because of a history of crackdowns by security agencies. That they are now finding their voice is a positive. It speaks to a desire for a better life, rule of law and a greater say in how their countries are run. There is clearly a democratic wave moving across the region.
Incidentally, Togo was recently feted by the Americans, who held the 16th forum of their African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) trade policy in Lome. Togo was granted a so-called textile passport that would allow it enjoy preferential treatment under AGOA for the export of textile and apparel products to the United States.
Foreign investors would do well to pay heed to the smaller West African countries. Their relative stability and eager governments could prove to be profitable for investors looking to set up bases in low cost environments with the ability to serve the entire region. &#8211; Written by Rafiq Raji

First Peace, Then Progress

It is almost 20 years to the day since I flew high above Africa, with a TV crew jammed into a bumpy light plane. It was a white-knuckle ride through clouds into the jaws of a military coup.
We woke on that October morning, in 1997, in Harare, to news of a military coup in neighboring Zambia. Given that Zambians are not exactly warlike people, this breakfast declaration by a group calling itself the National Redemption Council was startling. It was going to put in place a military junta to carry out live executions of traitors on TV.
The frontman was a Captain Solo – in real life Captain Steven Lungu of the Zambian army – who gave President Frederick Chiluba three hours to surrender, threatening bloody revenge to anyone who stood in his way.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/24/will-mnangagwa-usher-new-democracy-view-zimbabwe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Will Mnangagwa usher in a new democracy in Zimbabwe?</a>
All commercial flights to Zambia were cancelled in the chaos. For me, it meant the first trauma of the day; we had to charter a flight from the aptly named Bush Pilots in Harare – the only people crazy enough to fly into a coup. The pilot was a young guy who looked like he should have been at school rather than flying a plane.
As we bumped through the clouds he wriggled in his seat and to my surprise brought out a box of cigarettes and lit one. On his first puff, the message came through the radio that the authorities had shut down the airport at Lusaka.
“I’ll have to drop you off in the bush near the border,” says the young man in the matter-of-fact voice of a taxi driver. I thought he was joking until we touched down in the middle of nowhere with game grazing nearby. The crew offloaded its ton of cameras, lights and microphones – there was no lightweight digital technology in those days.
I set off across the baked earth to a farmhouse a couple of kilometers away. I shouted until the farmer came out and asked if he could lend us his truck. I jumped on the back and minutes later I was riding to the rescue and waving through the heat’s haze, with a big smile on my face, to the crew standing like specks on the horizon.
Half an hour later we were cursing, sweating, and humping the kit through the crowded immigration hall at Chirundu. Then, the remaining 120km on foot? We had no choice but to stand on that towering steel semi-circle that is the Birchenough Bridge and hitchhike. Luckily three heavy lorries, in convoy, from South Africa stopped and took us on board one in each of the three cabs. By the time we got to Lusaka, the coup was over. It turned out to be more comic opera than dogs of war.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/sometime-in-africa/2017/10/27/joys-african-carwash/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: The Joys Of An African Carwash</a>
It all started over a drink in the small hours in a Lusaka barracks. Captain Lungu and fellow officer Captain Jack Chiti sat complaining about the government and their grievances with the army. Just before dawn, in that way drunken people can do, they agreed to overthrow the government. The two captains went into the barracks, woke their men and told them to fire up the armoured vehicles. Most of them thought it was an exercise; but as they smashed through the gates of the Zambia National Broadcasting Corporation (ZNBC) most of the soldiers saw the coup attempt for what it was and pressed on. No doubt, a number saw themselves as ministers and generals under the new regime. Within the hour they had taken over the ZNBC and Captain Solo began broadcasting threats.
The crackdown was swift. Loyal government soldiers, armed to the teeth, invaded ZNBC and sent the coup plotters scattering. The biggest problem, one of the soldiers told me afterwards, was winkling out the once brave, now terrified, soldiers of the coup. Apparently, many of them hid in cupboards at the ZNBC and it took a long time to find them.
As for Captain Lungu, soldiers slapped him out of the broadcasting station with his hands up. He ended up in that position so familiar to coup plotters; pinned to the ground with an army boot on his throat. The Zambian Information Service gleefully gave us the pictures of this.
The trial took years. The court sentenced Captain Lungu to death in 2003; he appealed and was handed 20 years in prison. Former President Rupiah Banda granted him pardon in 2010 and he eked out an impoverished life until he died two years later, aged 50, of TB. Captain Chiti was also freed and died of cancer, in August 2004, in a Lusaka hospital.
Both men suffered sad, lonely ends in return for their few hours of power; a short-lived, bungled and, thankfully bloodless, coup that is a mere footnote in Zambia’s history.

The Hell Ride To A Comical Coup

President Robert Mugabe’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-military-coup-is-afoot-in-zimbabwe-whats-next-for-the-embattled-nation-87528" target="_blank" rel="noopener">endgame</a> in Zimbabwe holds various lessons for his South African counterpart, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-south-africans-should-resist-an-amnesty-deal-for-zuma-68101" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jacob Zuma</a>, as the latter too, considers his prospects towards the end of his presidency. The first, obviously, is that while, from the pinnacle of power, a country’s president may feel the monarch of all he can survey, it is always possible that the blade of the guillotine is just around the corner.
Accordingly, it is always prudent to keep at least two bags packed for a hasty exit: one full of suit, shirts, underwear and socks, another full of foreign currency (preferably dollars or Euros). You just never know how things might pan out, so it is best to be prepared.
Following the almost-coup, Mugabe has been in a stronger position than many African dictators before him because the African Union has in recent years become a lover of democracy and a hater of coups. It therefore now demands that changes of leadership must have at least a veneer of <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/Zimbabwe/zuma-slams-unconstitutional-take-over-of-zim-20171115" target="_blank" rel="noopener">constitutionality</a>.
This has always been the Zimbabwean military’s weak point during this past week of flirting with political power. Hence its insistence that, despite its take-over of the airwaves, State House and parliament, alongside its house-arrest of the president and his family, its actions are not a coup.
In turn, this has provided Mugabe with a considerable degree of wriggle room, which he has sought to exploit to the full. Indeed, it has remained his key bargaining chip, not least because the African Union does not want to be seen as party to the overthrow of a hero of African liberation.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/20/mugabe-wont-step-grace-wont-step-says-nephew/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Mugabe won&#8217;t step down and Grace won&#8217;t step up, says nephew</a>
<h2>Explicit political actor</h2>
Zuma will feel confident that whereas in Zimbabwe the army has long been deeply involved in the ruling party’s internal affairs and the wider political arena, the South African National Defence Force is not an explicit political actor. He stands in no fear of a military coup (or even a Zimbabwe-style non-coup). Yet he does have to worry about what happens within his political party, the African National Congress (ANC).
Even if his favoured candidate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-woman-president-in-south-africa-sadly-top-contender-offers-more-of-the-same-71944" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma</a>, were to win the party leadership at the ANC’s December congress, Zuma’s continuing as South African President might be seen as a political embarrassment. If strong contender <a href="https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1643579/zumas-popularity-slides-again-ramaphosa-favourite-to-lead-anc-survey/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cyril Ramaphosa</a> wins, even more urgent calls will be made from within the ANC for the him to be “recalled” because he will be viewed as an electoral liability.
It is a fair bet that, whoever wins, an excuse will be made for a delegation from the party leadership to visit the president and to ask him to stand down. Just ask former <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2008-09-20-anc-recalls-mbeki" target="_blank" rel="noopener">President Thabo Mbeki</a> who was fired by his own ANC. If Zuma refuses to cooperate, then the ANC might turn to parliament, where enough ANC MPs might feel emboldened to vote with the opposition to dethrone him.
<h2>Fighting for survival</h2>
Like Mugabe, Zuma will be battling for a dignified exit. Even more urgently, he will be fighting for survival. In previous years, Mugabe may have feared the prospect of retribution for his sins, and would have been determined to secure immunity from prosecution.
Now, at 93, he is confident that once out of office he will be left in peace. He may or may not appreciate the irony that, unlike his country’s last white ruler Ian Smith, he will not be able to stay in Zimbabwe after he has been forced to stand down, but he will know that he has to leave.
Neither the army nor Zanu-PF will want him hanging around, fearing his ability to continue pulling strings. So off he must go, to South Africa, Dubai or Singapore (anywhere with a few decent shops for his shopaholic wife Grace). His major immediate concern then, we may presume, is safe passage and immunity for his family. We may further presume, that there is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/17/robert-grace-mugabe-missing-millions-money-zimababwe" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a lot of money</a> stashed away in foreign bank accounts to keep the crocodile from the door.
<h2>Zuma’s tricky position</h2>
Zuma is differently placed. If he loses the Presidency he stands in all sorts of dangers, not least of which is prosecution for past financial crimes and the prospect of his ending his days in prison. In other words, he has much more to bargain for, and he will be doing so from a considerably weaker position. Not least of his problems is that he is a lot younger than Mugabe, so could spend quite a few years in jail.
Zuma’s major strength is that, whoever wins the party leadership, the ANC will probably want to grant him immunity and get him out of the way, as otherwise they face the prospect of their former leader facing a corruption trial during the lead up to elections in 2019.
But for a start, there is no provision for presidential immunity in the constitution, and its grant would face a strong challenge in the courts. Furthermore, if the Guptas or other Zuma allies in the project of “<a href="https://theconversation.com/zuma-and-anc-run-out-of-road-as-bad-news-piles-up-68197" target="_blank" rel="noopener">state capture</a>” were to be prosecuted, Zuma could face being dragged into court as a witness.
In short, Zuma will realise that it will make sense to hot-foot it out of the country, preferably to a comfortably authoritarian country which will turn down requests for extradition.
<h2>The fickle people</h2>
What Mugabe is learning now, and it is something of which Zuma should take good note, is that the people are an ungrateful lot, and are likely to turn against you just when you most need their support. Up &#8217;til a week ago, it was presumed that Mugabe retained the backing of all who mattered in Zanu-PF and that he would again be its candidate for president at the next election. But now, like many a dictator, he is having to learn fast that the people no longer love him.
Past allies, like the war veterans, had already turned against him, repudiating his apparent bid for his wayward wife, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/27/zimbabwe-first-lady-grace-robert-mugabe-successor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Grace</a>, to replace him. Zanu-PF Youth leader, <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/africa/2017-11-16-watch--from-die-for-mugabe-to-fawning-apology-zanu-pf-youth/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kudzai Chipanga</a>, initially declared his willingness to “die for Mugabe” and labelled Major-General Constantino Chiwenga, the leader of the non-coup, a traitor when the army first intervened. After being locked up, he shamefacedly read out an abject apology, begging forgiveness, and pleading the inexperience of youth.
This has been followed by all 10 provincial organisations of Zanu-PF calling for Mugabe to go, and even encouraging ordinary people to join the marches being organised by opposition parties and civil society demanding his dismissal.
Zuma is too wily a politician not to know that once he loses the party presidency, his support base will drain away, and that he will become known as yesterday’s man. Yet like Mugabe, he will take comfort from the regional body, the Southern African Development Community (SADC), for there is nothing his fellow presidents dread more than the prospect of any one of their number facing impeachment.
He will also know that, unlike Mbeki, whose stature in Africa remains high, he has no viable future as a roving ex-president. Zuma will know that if he wants to enjoy his retirement in peace, he has to leave South Africa before he gets tangled up in court proceedings.
His best option will be to grab those two suitcases, make a hasty exit and move in next door to Bob and Grace in Dubai. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/roger-southall-296862" target="_blank" rel="author noopener">Roger Southall</a>, Professor of Sociology, University of the Witwatersrand
Originally published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>
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Lessons for South Africa’s Jacob Zuma in Robert Mugabe’s misfortunes

Simon Mann, probably the 21st century’s most famous mercenary, is a small, neat man who looks nothing like he is supposed to.
The former special forces soldier, who did six tours in Northern Ireland with the British SAS and waged war for profit in Angola and Sierra Leone, shouldn’t look like a senior banker or bureaucrat.
And the man, whose mercenary career came to a crashing end when he was arrested in Harare in 2004 for his role in a planned coup in Equatorial Guinea, should not be wearing a turquoise Apple Watch (with matching earphones) in addition to his normal, more traditional, timepiece.
<div id="attachment_4078" style="width: 210px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-4078" class="size-medium wp-image-4078" src="/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/000_PAR2004032336856-200x300.jpg" alt="" width="200" height="300" />Simon Mann (L) the leader of the group of seventy foreigners arrested in Zimbabwe on charges of trying to topple the president of Equatorial Guinea leave a court set up at a maximum security prison 23 March 2003, in Harare. The 70 men were remanded until April 13. Man at right is unidentified. AFP PHOTO / STR</div>
Mann talks quietly in an upper-crust British accent that tells of growing up in the heart of the British establishment. Born into a brewing dynasty, to a father who captained England in cricket and won two Military Crosses and a Distinguished Service Order during World War II, Mann attended Eton and Sandhurst before joining the Scots Guards.
Having been selected for the elite Special Air Service (SAS), he served in Cyprus, Germany, Norway and Northern Ireland before leaving in 1985. He was recalled from the reserves to fight in the Gulf War.
Mann is hard of hearing in his right ear, making conversation amid the hubbub in The Botanist, the posh Sloane Square pub he chose for the interview, difficult.
There is a natural reticence about him and he takes his time to answer even the simplest question. This is a man who speaks far differently than he writes. There is a modesty in person that is not there in Cry Havoc, his gung-ho account of the disastrous “Wonga Coup” attempt in Equatorial Guinea and his time in two of Africa’s most notoriously hellish prisons, Zimbabwe’s Chikurubi and Equatorial Guinea’s Black Beach.
Mann, and 69 other mercenaries, was arrested in Zimbabwe in 2004 when the Boeing 727 he had acquired for the coup in Equatorial Guinea landed in Harare with $180,000 on board to pay for the arms he had bought for the operation.
He was convicted in Harare of two counts of buying and selling weaponry, and sentenced to seven years imprisonment. After serving three years, he was released and extradited to Equatorial Guinea where he was jailed for the planned coup, having been found guilty in absentia and sentenced to 34 years imprisonment. He served a year before being pardoned on humanitarian grounds by Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, the president he had been hired to overthrow.
Does Mann regret what he did? While he maintains that Equatorial Guinea was a “nasty” place, he thinks he should not have attempted the coup, and concedes it was a “bridge too far”. Mann believes that the situation is improving in the small oil-rich nation since the coup attempt, although he doesn’t connect the two things.
“It’s heading in the right direction, they’re making effort to get it right,” he says.
Mann has returned to Equatorial Guinea half a dozen times since his release. He says he is now “close” to Obiang who is, in his view, trying to set things right.
“I was very surprised when I was released,” he says, adding that he thought he’d be in jail for at least 10 years.
He has not been back to Zimbabwe and says he would require explicit assurances from the very top that it would be OK for him to do so.
Despite some circles criticizing the British government for washing its hands of the whole affair, Mann believes he was treated fairly.
“If you get involved in something like this and it goes horribly wrong, it is of your own doing.”
Mark Thatcher – the son of former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher – on the other hand, is still not in his good books.
“I’m still very pissed off with him. He let me down. I’m not a fan,” he says.
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In 2005, Thatcher admitted paying for a military helicopter used by the mercenaries but claimed that he believed it was to be used as an air ambulance. Thatcher paid a R3-million ($225,000) fine and got a four-year suspended sentence in South Africa where he had been living.
Mann’s adventures may have cost him a half a decade of his life but he remains unapologetic about the fact that he waged war for money across a continent that has seen too much conflict.
The moral boundaries of being guns for hire have always been blurry, but Mann is prosaic about it. He bundles his critics into a catch-all of “Guardian readers”, after the left-leaning British newspaper, who he says are pre-programmed to dislike “Old Etonian former Scots Guards” like himself.
Was Equatorial Guinea his last big coup? “Something like that,” he responds.
Mann says that the world has moved on, in a good way. He explains that the way to effect regime change is peaceful democratic elections, and that forced regime change only comes about because it is needed.
He agrees that the attempted coup in Equatorial Guinea was morally ambiguous, a far more generous interpretation than his critics had.
“It was controversial,” he admits, “… there was no war, so we can’t argue that we ended a war, we were going against an internationally recognized sovereign government.”
But he is steadfast that he was not wrong when he worked as a mercenary elsewhere on the continent and says that this is a very old profession. In Angola and Sierra Leone, where he was far more successful, he believes he was on the side of the angels – not least because he had been hired by the government of the day. These conflicts passed his moral test.
“I’m not saying we did things for entirely humanitarian reasons but it was self-defence for the… government.”
He claims that Executive Outcomes, the private military company (PMC) he was instrumental in founding, shortened the wars in both Angola and Sierra Leone. He was, he argues, in fact saving lives.
“Executive Outcomes saved the people of Sierra Leone from some real bastards.”
Mann is honest enough not to pretend that his motives were pure. He was in it for the money. While he felt sorry for the people in those countries, and says he was improving their lives, the major driver was monetary.
<div id="attachment_4080" style="width: 310px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-4080" class="size-medium wp-image-4080" src="/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/000_Par2051486-300x225.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="225" />British mercenary Simon Mann (2ndL) stands with co-accused on July 7, 2008 at Malabo&#8217;s courthouse. Mann was sentenced on July 7 by Malabo court to 34 years and four months in prison for leading an abortive coup in Equatorial Guinea. AFP PHOTO/ RODRIGO ANGUE NGUEMA</div>
Asked how you can justify being a mercenary, he quotes a poem by British poet A.E. Housman that sums it up. “This says more in two verses than most can say at all.”
However, he admits that PMCs shouldn’t be necessary and the work that they do would be better done by governments. Large-scale fighting isn’t a job for the private sector.
Putting business prerogatives into military situations can lead to a horrific moral dilemma. Why is this? The chain of command in an official army in a democratic state gives an audit trail of how things happen, and this leads to a better conclusion from moral, legal and philosophical aspects. Doing it as a business is completely different. But if official forces aren’t up to the job, then it is inevitable that PMCs will be there.
“Let’s say you are walking along a road and see a house on fire. If you’re asked to help you will say yes. But if a factory is on fire and you need men and equipment to fight that fire, you will do it as a business,” says Mann.
The nature of our conversation inevitably leads on to how to defeat Islamic State (IS) and other fundamentalists who are wreaking terror and misery across vast swathes of the Middle East and Africa.
For Mann it’s fairly simple, albeit not easy to execute. There are proven ways to win a war. You have to separate the guerrilla forces from people who are willing to support them, thus stopping the mechanism.
“This is hard to do against fundamentalists” who are a part of the communities that they terrorize but it’s better than being “cynical and saying to hell with it.”
Mann is, however, adamant that if western governments are not prepared to do what is required to defeat IS then private military companies should do it. PMC personnel are, after all, all ex-military and can get the job done without the political fallout. But why create soldiers if you are going to let them retire only to pay the private sector to deploy them?
“If society feels it has a moral right and duty to deal with IS then there should be support for boots on the ground.”
Part of that includes the fact that some of your people will inevitably die. War is not romantic and fighting wars is dreadful.
Is there a political will to do it? Mann believes so.
“Society has become far more interfering, and we have taken the approach of ‘if we can help, why not?’… Why care more about someone in Liverpool than in Mosul?”
And if governments are not going to care, there will be men who will be willing to care… for a fee, of course.
But it won’t be Simon Mann. He says his days of being a hired gun are over. He is now only involved in running his businesses and writing a novel which he describes as an adventure thriller modelled on John Buchan’s The Thirty-Nine Steps but set in modern times and with a female hero.
Time will tell.

Tag: Coup

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