A new research paper from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology estimates that blocking out the middle seat on airplanes could cause the likelihood of passengers being infected with coronavirus to drop by nearly half, just as some airlines are starting to book flights to capacity again.



KEY FACTS



<ul><li>According to the MIT paper (which has not been peer reviewed) the chances of catching coronavirus from a nearby passenger on a full airplane when all coach seats are filled is about <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.02.20143826v2.full.pdf" target="_blank">1 in 4,300</a>.</li></ul>



<ul><li>However, those odds drop to 1 in 7,700 when all the middle seats on board are left empty, the paper states.</li></ul>



<ul><li>Taking into account a <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.02.20143826v2.full.pdf" target="_blank">1% mortality rate</a> according to the statistical model, the likelihood of dying from a coronavirus case contracted on a plane is far more likely than dying in a <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.02.20143826v2.full.pdf" target="_blank">plane crash</a>, which has odds of about 1 in 34 million, the paper stated. </li></ul>



<ul><li>In “Covid-19 Risk Among Airline Passengers: Should the Middle Seat Stay Empty?” the author of the study, Arnold Barnett, wrote that his analysis aims to be “<a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.02.20143826v2.full.pdf" target="_blank">a rough approximation</a>” of the risks involved in flying during the coronavirus pandemic.</li></ul>



<ul><li>“The airlines are setting their own policies but the airlines and the public should know about the <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/filling-middle-seats-nearly-doubles-airline-passenger-risk-of-catching-covid-19-says-mit-researcher/" target="_blank">risk implications</a> of their choices,&#8221; Barnett told ZDNet this week.</li></ul>



<ul><li>The paper comes just as more flight carriers, like <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/06/27/american-airlines-ditches-social-distancing-will-book-planes-at-full-capacity/#654a11ea3b9a">American Airlines</a>, begin booking flights to full capacity despite surges of the virus across the country. </li></ul>



KEY BACKGROUND



The coronavirus pandemic has been disastrous for the travel industry, and has especially hurt airlines. Major American carriers including American, Delta and United have asked employees to <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/07/08/united-airlines-warns-that-it-could-layoff-36000-employees/#1f5870d93afb">take buyouts</a> and early retirement, Forbes reported, in a bid to cut costs as the pandemic causes them to bleed cash. United Airlines warned this week that it could be forced to furlough <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/07/08/united-airlines-warns-that-it-could-layoff-36000-employees/#6a9425d73afb">36,000 jobs</a>, or nearly half of its American workers, starting in October if travel doesn’t pick up. In April, the airline estimated that in the first quarter it lost <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2020/04/20/united-airlines-first-quarter-loss/#36db1a0196ef">$2.1 billion</a> pre-tax, Forbes reported, and was losing <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2020/04/20/united-airlines-first-quarter-loss/#36db1a0196ef">$100 million</a> a day in the last half of March. Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun said in May he expects a major airline to go <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/isabeltogoh/2020/05/12/boeing-ceo-warns-a-major-airline-will-most-likely-go-out-of-business-this-year-because-of-coronavirus/#660d73342b4b">out of business</a> in 2020 as a result of pandemic pressure.



NEWS PEG



American Airlines announced two weeks ago it would begin <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/06/27/american-airlines-ditches-social-distancing-will-book-planes-at-full-capacity/#654a11ea3b9a">booking middle seats</a> again starting in July, although the carrier will allow passengers to switch from a full flight without any extra cost, Forbes reported. <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/06/27/american-airlines-ditches-social-distancing-will-book-planes-at-full-capacity/#370f46303b9a">United</a> is also selling tickets for middle seats. American Airlines took flak earlier this month when Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) tweeted a picture of his <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://twitter.com/SenJeffMerkley/status/1278782271986831360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1279139143117832192%7Ctwgr%5E&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wusa9.com%2Farticle%2Fnews%2Fverify%2Fverify-airplane-safety-coronavirus-major-airlines-policies%2F65-5872a38d-42fe-4940-be04-eb67de1fe0c3" target="_blank">crowded flight</a>. 



<figure class="wp-block-embed-twitter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">.<a href="https://twitter.com/AmericanAir?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AmericanAir</a>: how many Americans will die bc you fill middle seats, w/ your customers shoulder to shoulder, hour after hour. This is incredibly irresponsible. People eat &amp; drink on planes &amp; must take off masks to do so. No way you aren’t facilitating spread of COVID infections. <a href="https://t.co/PWG5macqgC">pic.twitter.com/PWG5macqgC</a>&mdash; Senator Jeff Merkley (@SenJeffMerkley) <a href="https://twitter.com/SenJeffMerkley/status/1278782271986831360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 2, 2020</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



WHAT TO WATCH



If airlines continue to extend their policy of keeping middle seats blocked off or if they’ll be forced to book to capacity to turn a profit. <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://twitter.com/SouthwestAir/status/1280932162854948866" target="_blank">Southwest</a> and <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://twitter.com/Delta/status/1278352078784671744" target="_blank">Delta</a> have both committed to keeping their middle <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://twitter.com/Delta/status/1278352078784671744" target="_blank">seats</a> blocked off until at least the end of September, while <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2020/06/26/airlines-tried-social-distancing-board-many-that-experiment-is-ending/" target="_blank">JetBlue</a> will do the same through July, according to the Washington Post.



&#8211; <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/">Carlie Porterfield</a>, Forbes Staff, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/business">Business</a>

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Leaving Airplane Middle Seats Empty Could Cut Coronavirus Risk Almost In Half, A Study Says

What drew you to the aviation industry?
I decided to become a pilot when I was four years old. I would see the big noisy bird take off and land at Bujumbura International Airport. I was fortunate enough to fly on the big bird, when I was seven years old, on a family trip to the United States. It was my first flight on a commercial airplane and I loved it.
&nbsp;
Where did you study?
I started my training at Soroti Flying School, also known as East Africa Civil Aviation Academy, in Uganda. I then got a scholarship with RwandAir to continue my commercial license training at Vero Beach Florida, US, at Flight Safety Academy.
&nbsp;
How many people graduated from your flight school and how many of them were women?
At Soroti Flying School, two women had graduated before me that I know of. At Flight Safety Academy, the number was bigger. There were up to 20 female students from all over the world, including the first female pilot from Saudi Arabia, Hanadi Zakaria al-Hindi. There were about 10 female instructors and the chief pilot, Nancy Ritter, was also female. But as many as we were, we did not even make up five percent of the academy.
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How did you feel when you became the first female pilot in Rwanda?
Making history is not my goal, achieving my goals is what I delight in. After getting my commercial license I did not celebrate, I was looking forward to the next cockpit I would get into.
&nbsp;
Your father passed away in a plane crash when you were eight. Did that affect your decision in any way?
No, it did not keep me from my dream. We do not stop driving because loved ones die in car crashes, why stop now? However, it made me realize the value of lives I have on board, so safety is definitely a big deal to me as a pilot.
&nbsp;
Why do you think there are so few women pilots in the world?
Aviation is perceived to be a male career. As the first female pilot in Rwanda, I feel proud to have paved the way for all young dreamers, male or female, to achieve their dreams.
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What challenges have you faced? Do you feel you always have to prove yourself as a woman?
I like to view my challenges as the reasons to celebrate having reached my goal. As a woman in a male-dominated field, there is no doubt that you have to prove yourself, but hard work always pays off.
&nbsp;
What is your power principle?
Do what you love to do and people will appreciate it.

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Leaving Airplane Middle Seats Empty Could Cut Coronavirus Risk Almost In Half, A Study Says

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