A new research paper from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology estimates that blocking out the middle seat on airplanes could cause the likelihood of passengers being infected with coronavirus to drop by nearly half, just as some airlines are starting to book flights to capacity again.



KEY FACTS



<ul><li>According to the MIT paper (which has not been peer reviewed) the chances of catching coronavirus from a nearby passenger on a full airplane when all coach seats are filled is about <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.02.20143826v2.full.pdf" target="_blank">1 in 4,300</a>.</li></ul>



<ul><li>However, those odds drop to 1 in 7,700 when all the middle seats on board are left empty, the paper states.</li></ul>



<ul><li>Taking into account a <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.02.20143826v2.full.pdf" target="_blank">1% mortality rate</a> according to the statistical model, the likelihood of dying from a coronavirus case contracted on a plane is far more likely than dying in a <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.02.20143826v2.full.pdf" target="_blank">plane crash</a>, which has odds of about 1 in 34 million, the paper stated. </li></ul>



<ul><li>In “Covid-19 Risk Among Airline Passengers: Should the Middle Seat Stay Empty?” the author of the study, Arnold Barnett, wrote that his analysis aims to be “<a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.02.20143826v2.full.pdf" target="_blank">a rough approximation</a>” of the risks involved in flying during the coronavirus pandemic.</li></ul>



<ul><li>“The airlines are setting their own policies but the airlines and the public should know about the <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/filling-middle-seats-nearly-doubles-airline-passenger-risk-of-catching-covid-19-says-mit-researcher/" target="_blank">risk implications</a> of their choices,&#8221; Barnett told ZDNet this week.</li></ul>



<ul><li>The paper comes just as more flight carriers, like <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/06/27/american-airlines-ditches-social-distancing-will-book-planes-at-full-capacity/#654a11ea3b9a">American Airlines</a>, begin booking flights to full capacity despite surges of the virus across the country. </li></ul>



KEY BACKGROUND



The coronavirus pandemic has been disastrous for the travel industry, and has especially hurt airlines. Major American carriers including American, Delta and United have asked employees to <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/07/08/united-airlines-warns-that-it-could-layoff-36000-employees/#1f5870d93afb">take buyouts</a> and early retirement, Forbes reported, in a bid to cut costs as the pandemic causes them to bleed cash. United Airlines warned this week that it could be forced to furlough <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/07/08/united-airlines-warns-that-it-could-layoff-36000-employees/#6a9425d73afb">36,000 jobs</a>, or nearly half of its American workers, starting in October if travel doesn’t pick up. In April, the airline estimated that in the first quarter it lost <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2020/04/20/united-airlines-first-quarter-loss/#36db1a0196ef">$2.1 billion</a> pre-tax, Forbes reported, and was losing <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2020/04/20/united-airlines-first-quarter-loss/#36db1a0196ef">$100 million</a> a day in the last half of March. Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun said in May he expects a major airline to go <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/isabeltogoh/2020/05/12/boeing-ceo-warns-a-major-airline-will-most-likely-go-out-of-business-this-year-because-of-coronavirus/#660d73342b4b">out of business</a> in 2020 as a result of pandemic pressure.



NEWS PEG



American Airlines announced two weeks ago it would begin <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/06/27/american-airlines-ditches-social-distancing-will-book-planes-at-full-capacity/#654a11ea3b9a">booking middle seats</a> again starting in July, although the carrier will allow passengers to switch from a full flight without any extra cost, Forbes reported. <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/06/27/american-airlines-ditches-social-distancing-will-book-planes-at-full-capacity/#370f46303b9a">United</a> is also selling tickets for middle seats. American Airlines took flak earlier this month when Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) tweeted a picture of his <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://twitter.com/SenJeffMerkley/status/1278782271986831360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1279139143117832192%7Ctwgr%5E&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wusa9.com%2Farticle%2Fnews%2Fverify%2Fverify-airplane-safety-coronavirus-major-airlines-policies%2F65-5872a38d-42fe-4940-be04-eb67de1fe0c3" target="_blank">crowded flight</a>. 



<figure class="wp-block-embed-twitter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">.<a href="https://twitter.com/AmericanAir?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AmericanAir</a>: how many Americans will die bc you fill middle seats, w/ your customers shoulder to shoulder, hour after hour. This is incredibly irresponsible. People eat &amp; drink on planes &amp; must take off masks to do so. No way you aren’t facilitating spread of COVID infections. <a href="https://t.co/PWG5macqgC">pic.twitter.com/PWG5macqgC</a>&mdash; Senator Jeff Merkley (@SenJeffMerkley) <a href="https://twitter.com/SenJeffMerkley/status/1278782271986831360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 2, 2020</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



WHAT TO WATCH



If airlines continue to extend their policy of keeping middle seats blocked off or if they’ll be forced to book to capacity to turn a profit. <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://twitter.com/SouthwestAir/status/1280932162854948866" target="_blank">Southwest</a> and <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://twitter.com/Delta/status/1278352078784671744" target="_blank">Delta</a> have both committed to keeping their middle <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://twitter.com/Delta/status/1278352078784671744" target="_blank">seats</a> blocked off until at least the end of September, while <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2020/06/26/airlines-tried-social-distancing-board-many-that-experiment-is-ending/" target="_blank">JetBlue</a> will do the same through July, according to the Washington Post.



&#8211; <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/">Carlie Porterfield</a>, Forbes Staff, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/business">Business</a>

gettyimages-1224293933-594×594

Leaving Airplane Middle Seats Empty Could Cut Coronavirus Risk Almost In Half, A Study Says

One major unfulfilled campaign promise from the President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration is the creation of a new national carrier. The talk about its creation sparked heated debate. It led to stakeholders examining what led to the collapse of Nigeria Airways (the defunct national carrier), as well as the pros and cons of creating a new national carrier.
Although the debate currently tilts in favor of the naysayers, there are still sound reasons why Nigeria should float a new national carrier. Most of the reasons canvassed against its creation are rooted in the failures of the defunct Nigeria Airways.
Nigeria Airways was liquidated in 2003 for many reasons, including mismanagement, corruption, and a spate of plane crashes from the 80s.
Since the disappearance of the national carrier from the aviation space, Nigeria has suffered a loss of around $2 billion in capital flight.
Despite this, those against the creation of a new national carrier believe that it is not a logical step for the aviation industry in Nigeria. They propose an alternative, which is opening up Nigeria’s airspace for more direct and frequent flights to and from African cities. They say this has the potential to boost the economy by $128 million and create over 17,000 jobs.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2017/06/14/time-tax-nigerias-churches/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Is It Time To Tax Nigeria&#8217;s Churches?</a>
The loss of $2 billion in capital flight is further exacerbated by the domination of the Nigerian aviation space by foreign airlines and the weakness of local insurance companies to effectively handle issues of aviation insurance. If the proposed alternative is adopted; this capital flight could double, as this will lead to more foreign participation in the sector.
Also, the establishment of a national airline will encourage the establishment of maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) facilities in Nigeria which can help block further capital flight and inevitably create jobs. Nigeria’s MRO facilities disappeared with the country’s national carrier, along with the $190 million that came with the facilities.
The third problem of not having a national carrier is the underutilization of the Bilateral Air Service Agreements (BASA) that the government has signed. These agreements allow international commercial air transport between territories. Nigeria has signed 78 of these, but they favor other countries, partly due to the lack of national carrier in Nigeria to reciprocate. A national carrier will make it possible for more players to fly competitive routes, which in turn will reduce the exorbitant airfares in Nigeria’s aviation sector.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/technology/2017/11/09/uber-wants-bring-flying-taxis-traffic-congested-los-angeles/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Uber Wants To Bring Its Flying Taxis To Traffic-Congested Los Angeles</a>
Floating a national carrier is also a useful way for the government to earn foreign exchange. This can be done by privatizing a majority stake in the airline. This helped the national carriers of Ethiopia and Singapore to thrive.
There are also examples of national airlines being vital in boosting tourism. Kenya doubled the growth of its tourism industry through Kenya Airways by promoting its tourism sector on all flights on the national carrier.
A new national carrier will also result in an increase in jobs and development. Job opportunities for positions such as engineers; pilots; flight attendants; cleaners; booking agents; and caterers; will be created. The national carrier will also help to train Nigerians for the jobs created in the sector. This is important when most pilots and engineers in the industry are foreigners.
A new national carrier can kick start the renovation and activation of the over 26 airport facilities in Nigeria. The ripple effect of this is an increase in air travelers, which leads to a decrease in road travelers and a significant reduction in road accidents in Nigeria.
There are very few national projects with this potential. Nigeria should do everything within its power to make it succeed. &#8211; Written by Daniel Godson Olika

Why Nigeria Needs A New National Carrier

In 1934, Helen Richey was the first female to pilot a commercial airline in the United States. A little less than 80 years later, in South Africa, three female pilots embarked on the first long-range flight with an all-female flight deck crew for South African Airways (SAA).
“I’ve been a captain on the long range for seven years and I’ve never had two ladies on the flight deck with me. These things happened by accident, it was a coincidence,” says Captain Jane Trembath, who flew with Senior First Officers Taryn Hochstrasser and Jocindy Mars.
It’s also about the numbers – there are far more male than female pilots, hence the likelihood of having a male co-pilot is greater. Of the 130,000 airline pilots worldwide, 4,000 are female, according to the International Society of Women Airline Pilots; around 70 of SAA’s 780 pilots are female.
“At 9%, we are still higher than the international average, and [Mars’ cadet program] were at 25%, which is even higher. It’s been through the cadet program that we’ve increased our percentage of women. SAA’s aim was 50-50, but I don’t think that’s ever happened. There were some intakes where only women survived, and women have a higher passing rate,” says Trembath.
SAA has offered a cadet training program since 1994, and it is highly selective including extensive medical and psychometric testing.
“The cadet program only takes a selected number of people, not everybody gets in, you have to be chosen, you have to be good enough, like these two,” she says, pointing at Hochstrasser and Mars.
“It’s difficult to get into the cadet program, I was told they’d received 8,000 applicants. They only chose 16 from those and the selection process took a year,” says Mars.
“We did psychometric testing, if you passed that, you went for a medical and a personality test, and then there is a final interview before you get chosen,” says Hochstrasser.
“You never know exactly what they’re looking for. The most important thing is the actual desire, because it’s a hard road for men as well as women, if you don’t have that desire then you won’t have the tenacity to stick it out. That’s probably what they’re looking for: do you really, really want it,” says Trembath.
Trembath’s non-conformist parents loaned her money to attend a flying school, where she completed her private and commercial pilot’s license. In the early 1980s, it cost around R15,000 to qualify. Today, it costs a minimum of R350,000 ($33,000), and flight training costs around R1,300 ($122) an hour. Due to the cost, some qualify through the air force, many subsequently move into commercial aviation to clock more flying hours.
After earning her wings, it was time to fly, but no one wanted a female pilot, and an inexperienced one at that.
“You always think each step of your commercial license is the most difficult: exams are difficult, getting the hours is difficult, writing your final flight tests is difficult, but it’s not. The most difficult part was getting a job as a woman back in
the 1980s.
“I got turned down for a couple of jobs because I was a woman and I was told that to my face. It took a lot of persistence and I had to hang in there,” says Trembath.
There aren’t many opportunities to gain experience, but newly-qualified South African pilots are hired by South African companies to fly their airplanes throughout Africa.
Trembath became a pioneer in South African aviation: “SAA didn’t have any women pilots before 1988. They accepted me along with two other women [Brenda Howett and Jennifer Burger], that was a whole new thing for the industry.”
In 1993, she was also the first South African female pilot who qualified to fly a Boeing 747-400. During her 32-year career, she is proud to have had many firsts and to have witnessed change.
“Today, as a woman, it’s a lot easier to find a job. In small companies, women are judged on their merits and no one is turned down because they’re a woman,” says Trembath.
There may be more female pilots today, but they still experience prejudice. Between the three of them, they recount stories of hesitant parents, unsupportive guidance counselors and mocking friends. Similarly, passengers do double takes when they see a female pilot, elderly men openly pray during a flight, and passengers pass snide remarks about empty kitchens.
“Two students came to the flight deck to say hello. He was from Netherlands and she was from Finland. She asked, ‘Are you the pilot?’ I said, ‘Yes, didn’t you hear the PA announcements?’ She said, ‘no, so you actually fly the airplane? Females can be pilots?’ It was strange because she comes from a first-world country and yet still has the same perceptions as everybody else,” says Hochstrasser.
They have learnt not to try change people’s minds, but to deal prejudice with humor and through empowering communication.
“Whatever you’re doing, you have to have a passion for it, because it won’t always be easy. Provided that you enjoy it and you’re doing it because you really, really want to do it, don’t do it for anyone else,” says Mars.
Truer words were never said.

Women Power At 30,000ft

When you meet her, you are immediately struck by the assertive, determined woman she is. But beneath the tough exterior is a woman with a story, a story of adversity and abuse that has led to her becoming one of Uganda’s top travel and tour operators.
Jackie Kemirembe Rubuubi, the Founder and Managing Director of Platinum Safaris, started small. She began her career in the airline industry as a security officer with Sabena Airways, now known as Brussels Airlines. She worked there until the company, which she calls “a very professional workplace”, ran into operational troubles. It was forced to temporarily close down and change names. She had to make ends meet so she found a temporary job at the Kenya Airways office in Uganda’s capital Kampala.
Soon, a new airline, Africa One, made an entry in the Ugandan airspace. And Rubuubi was headhunted for a top managerial position. The offer came with many promises including tempting bonuses. This made her give it her best, but after some time on the job, Rubuubi started noticing the cracks.
<img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-6275" src="/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Jackie-Kemirembe-Rubuubi-while-climbing-Mt.-Rwenzori-in-Uganda-243x300.jpg" alt="" width="243" height="300" />
“Suddenly, I had multiple directors to report to instead of the one that was indicated in my appointment letter. I also never got the bonuses despite signing lucrative deals,” she says. One of the male directors particularly got meddlesome in her duties, unilaterally issuing holiday breaks to members of her team. This upset operations in the section that Rubuubi headed. Frustration set in.
“It was pure harassment and lack of professionalism,” she says.
At the height of it, she decided to have a one-on-one with the female director about the state of affairs. It was going to be a conversation she would never forget – for a long time.
“The director I sought to confide in and the one I was actually supposed to be reporting to told me that as long as I remained employed with them, it wouldn’t be strange if she asked me to go and make their beds! In her view, I was to do anything they wanted me to do despite being a manager. I immediately made up my mind to resign, bringing an end to two daunting years. It turned out to be the worst job I ever had.”
That conversation gave Rubuubi enough reason to leave – and consider starting something on her own. She retreated to London where she found a job as an accountant in a retail food chain.
Within a year, she returned to Uganda on maternity leave. She never returned to London though she kept being paid her salary. She used the money to open a garment shop. The new venture wasn’t doing well but she wanted to avoid being employed again.
It was not easy.
At one point, when she traveled to Dubai to source garments for her shop, she met a Turkish couple who convinced her to open an employment agency to recruit people in Kampala and connect them to odd jobs in Dubai.
The couple turned out to be imposters when they vanished with the $27,000 Rubuubi had given them to process visas for the 230 recruits that had registered.
Her attempts to involve Interpol in tracing them were met with numerous death threats from the couple. She finally gave up and devised a new plan.
With an International Air Transport Association (IATA) qualification under her belt, Rubuubi decided to open a travel and tour company. She registered Platinum Safaris in 2002, starting operations in a small room.
Her first client was an official from the International Criminal Court who not only became a regular but also brought in other customers. The business prospered and she registered it with professional bodies. This brought more opportunities until she shifted office to a new location.
Today, Platinum Safaris is a leading tour and travel service provider in the East African region known for services such as air-ticketing, safaris across the Great Lakes region, honeymoon packages, visa advisory, conference planning and bookings for white-water rafting and gorilla-tracking.
Last year, Platinum received an accolade from Amadeus, a firm that provides travel software and technology solutions for the global travel industry, for its high adoption of solutions. The company also has a raft of honors from other industry players including airlines.
Rubuubi’s vision is to venture into luxury tourism similar to what is offered in Morocco. She is in the final stages of acquiring speedboats that will introduce a new tourism circuit connecting major islands on Lake Victoria, Africa’s greatest lake and source of the Nile.
She says that what she went through made her realize women surely deserve better at the workplace.
“No one expects women to perform better than men. But the fact is many women are stronger than men,” she says.

No More Suffering The Boss

Christopher Okocha, or Chris, as he was referred to, was one of the passengers on the ill-fated airline that carried 146 passengers and a crew of seven from the Nnamdi Azikiwe airport in Abuja, Nigeria’s  capital, to the Murtala Muhammed Airport in the commercial hub of Lagos. He was one of the many Nigerians who constitute the nucleus of the country, who through their daily motions, are pivotal to the overall development of this giant of Africa. A young and visionary man, he had been married for about two years to the love of his life, during which time he became a father to his daughter. Chris’ life is a sad example of the misfortune that befell several families, as many like his small child lost fathers, while others like his young wife have become widows. The devastating crash wiped out whole families who were on board the airline, while children were left orphaned. The families of the victims have all experienced an irreparable loss; they are left bereaved and despondent, left alone with memories of their kin that do little to soothe the pain.
In the hours after the crash, a pervasive cloud of gloom hung over the country that had been weary from similar incidents that occurred in the past. Nigeria is no stranger to airline crashes. Its unenviable record of 10 air crashes in the last 20 years means that it has had an average of one fatal crash in every other year since 1992. A particularly disastrous spell in the 12 months between October 2005 and October 2006, saw three commercial airlines—each carrying a substantial number of passengers—meet a similar fate. After six years of relative safety, Nigerians bore a palpable sense of relief and cautious optimism at the changing fortune of the country with regard to airplane crashes. Many believe these incidents had become a thing of the past, but the crash of Dana Air flight 0092 represents a calamitous setback, which due to the scale, is a visible scar that has blighted the consciousness of the nation. Among the passengers on the flight was the group general manager of public affairs for the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), Levi Ajuonuma, a respected journalist who was chief spokesman of the state owned oil corporation for nine years. Likewise, Ehime Aikhomu, the son of a former vice president who held office under the military in the 90s, also lost his life in the incident.
The airline involved, Dana Air, is a subsidiary of Dana Group of companies, which is owned by the Hathiramani family. The family has lived in Nigeria for over four decades, they control a number of subsidiaries that play in the automobile, consumer goods, pharmaceutical and aviation industries. The airline has been operational since 2008, with a fleet of five planes that fly across various regions of the country. The aircraft involved in the crash was a McDonnell Douglas MD-83 which was commissioned in 1990, when it was bought by its previous owners, American Alaska Airlines. The plane was reported to have had a history of incidents including a wiring incident that caused smoke to fill the cabin in 2002, while it was being used by Alaska Airlines. Dana Airlines is reported to have bought the plane in 2008.
As a result of this airplane crash, Nigeria’s aviation authorities are now faced with the enormous task of restoring the shattered confidence of the public in the aviation sector. This is despite comments by both local and international regulatory agencies in the aftermath of the crash that significant improvements have been made in the country’s aviation sector in terms of adherence to safety procedures and international standards. In 2006, the industry regulators issued a recapitalization order to airline operators. This led to a significant reduction in the number of carriers with only eight able to meet the new requirements. Since then, the carriers had operated remarkably well, with no major incidents recorded. But notwithstanding, some experts had indicated that airline maintenance and overall safety practises in the industry were not what they should be. On the evidence of the recent crash, it appears that they have been proven right. Dana is now liable to pay compensation worth over $15 million to families of the crash victims, in line with global practices and rates for airline passenger insurance. It is reported that about 70% of the insurance risk was retained with foreign-based insurance companies; therefore the local companies will avoid taking a massive hit from the claims. Thus, for both the aviation authorities and the airlines, the long and arduous task of addressing the challenges in the sector has just begun.

Tag: airline

FORBES AFRICA SOCIAL MEDIA

Leaving Airplane Middle Seats Empty Could Cut Coronavirus Risk Almost In Half, A Study Says

Why Nigeria Needs A New National Carrier

Women Power At 30,000ft

No More Suffering The Boss

TRAGEDY ON A SUNDAY