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New Kids On The Mining Block

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Mining Indaba 2018

If radical socio-economic transformation – the term favored by South African politicians these days – had a face, it would probably look like one of the many new mining operations being established by new players in the industry.

A recurring theme over the years at the Mining Indaba has been the uncertainty in the South African mining industry. This is driven by contested regulatory and legislative issues which have looked to aggressively introduce transformative initiatives across the industry.

That narrative has not changed but this year’s gathering in Cape Town had a tinge of optimism, with miners waiting for the contentious legislation to be changed.

In 2017, the then-Minister of Mineral Resources, Mosebenzi Zwane, announced a new Mining Charter that “shifted the requirements for black ownership and employment equity at mining companies, as well as the companies from which they procure any goods and services.”

Following this, industry stakeholders say they have lost confidence in the ministry. According to the Chamber of Mines, the Mining Charter made investors wary of committing any capital to the country. A report by the Chamber of Mines claims that investment into the sector, which contributes 8% to GDP, has been stagnant since 2008.

This year, there were calls for the minister to stay away from the event. The stakeholders wanted Cyril Ramaphosa, who at the time was Deputy President, to deliver the keynote address. Zwane ignored this and defiantly asked, “In terms of the population of South Africa, what percentage of the people do these critics represent?”

“Anyone who thinks they can better the charter, our door is open for discussion,” Zwane told FORBES AFRICA on the sidelines of the event.

But, if you look past the legislative woes and the political rhetoric, you’ll see an encouraging story of a young black man who struggled to break into the sector which has previously been dominated by a privileged few.

A recent report by Statistics South Africa noted that mining production had increased by 6.5% year-on-year, up from the annual growth of 5.2% reported in October 2017. This bodes well for Black Royalty Minerals, a subsidiary of the Makole Group, which launched its first colliery in Bronkhorstspruit, a small town 50kms east of Pretoria, at the end of January.

“For us, mining is a pillar and a cornerstone of the South African economy. It’s a foundation that you cannot ignore when you talk about economic development. So, in 2014, [Bronkhorstspruit] is where Chilwavhusiku started, we did our prospecting and applied for all our authorization and after this was done we realized that we could take this project into the mining phase and that’s exactly what we did. And now, as we stand here, we are very proud of this development,” says Ndavhe Mareda, the Chairman of Black Royalty Minerals, which is 100% black-owned.

“One of our mandates is growth. We are looking at both the domestic market as well as export markets. We are working with a lot of traders in the hopes that we’ll be able to expand our horizon. And, we want to do this the right way, in a way that will not exploit the land or its dwellers and of course that works well with the society.”

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Mareda was born in Venda, a former homeland of the apartheid regime in northern South Africa. He obtained his matric and moved to Johannesburg, the City of Gold, to further his studies. He obtained his Bachelor of Commerce at the University of South Africa and practiced as an accountant before venturing into entrepreneurship.

The company, which became operational in 2014, employs 350 people – 90% of whom are Bronkhorstspruit locals. It is hoped the colliery will create opportunities for the some 20,000 people that live around the mine.

“There is a huge level of unemployment in Bronkhorstspruit and our mine eases a lot of the pressure applied by the poverty. We give tender preference to the locals. These tenders may be for transportation or any other services that the mine needs to commission,” says Mareda.

This is what the disputed Mining Charter is looking to foster – assisting black-owned businesses like Black Royalty Minerals.

Disputed government policies are not isolated to South Africa.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is no stranger to legislation battles between government and mining conglomerates. The government recently completed a new draft of what it calls the Mining Code. It awaits the signature of the president. In the meantime, mining companies are anxious about the future of their operations in the region.

Randgold Resources started developing Kibali, in north east DRC, eight years ago. After investing $2.5 billion in the operation, the giant gold mine may have to stop productivity.

Randgold chief executive Mark Bristow says the mine is on track to produce its target of more than 700,000 ounces of gold in 2018, making it one of the largest gold mines in the world. But, with the Mining Code, this prosperity may be short-lived.

“It is our express wish that the government grasps the serious consequences this ill-considered code will have on its ability as a country to attract international investment and re-investment to the DRC, and to refer the code back to the ministry of mines for further consultation with the industry,” says Bristow.

Officials, however, are confident the code will demonopolize the industry and allow the country to enjoy a percentage of the profits made from the exploration of its resources. Albert Yuma Mulimbi, Chairman of the state-owned mining company Gecamines, says it will be renegotiating its contracts with international mining partners operating in the DRC.

READ MORE: ‘I Said Kill Me, They Said Cheers!’

Regulation is not the only issue facing mining in Africa. The former president of Nigeria, Olusegun Obasanjo, in his official address, highlighted that creating a sustainable environment for emerging miners is no simple task. He said the industry is marred by a lack of transparency as well as a legacy of mistrust of major miners. The mining industry has been accused of pursuing profits at the expense of its workforce.

Solutions to these issues need to be found.

Apart from the emergence of junior miners, the mining industry in South Africa is looking at technological advancement to resuscitate the sector.

“Technologies like robotic process automation and artificial intelligence will enable core mining activities to be performed from locations that can support a more diverse and inclusive workforce,” reads Deloitte’s Tracking The Trends report. “These new technologies will turn the mining value chain upside down, disrupting both existing business models and the traditional roles and relationships among mining companies and their customers, suppliers, and even competitors.”

This is the kind of disruption that excites another junior miner, Olebogeng Sentsho, who’s a disruptor herself as a young woman emerging in the mining industry. She is the founder of Yeabo Mining, a company that specializes in erecting and operating waste management plants at mines.

“In order to make headway in this industry we need greater support and space from various stakeholders. The increasing cost of mining, especially when discovering alternative minerals in decommissioned mines, is immense,” she says.

Sentsho says Yeabo Mining will need R50 million ($4.1 million) for infrastructure needed to mine in the current climate.

“It’s not an easy ride but it’s one worth hanging onto and I am confident about the future and the markets we’ll be serving as Africans,” says Mareda with a smile and genuine hope.

Current Affairs

Famed Cullinan Mine Banks On Big Diamonds To Drive Down Debt

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Maipato Kesebang normally grows maize, jugo beans and sweet reed on her 20-hectare plot of land northwest of Gaborone, Botswana’s capital. But last year, worsening drought and heatwaves destroyed much of her harvest.

“The little that grew feebly we just ate. Nothing was left for storage or to sell,” she said.

Usually when her crops fail she turns to collecting wild spinach to sell, to support her two sons. But even that is now disappearing as climate change brings harsher weather and more people turn to harvesting the vegetable to survive, she said.

So last year, for the first time, she signed up to Ipelegeng, a long-standing government safety net program that provides temporary jobs for those struggling to make ends meet.

Now she works one month out of four cutting back overgrown grass and trees, desilting dams and drains, collecting litter or cleaning streets.

She’d prefer to work every month – but demand is so high for the jobs that there aren’t enough slots, she said.

“We only work for a month, then we go home and wait for three months before we apply again. That’s because there are too many people now needing the relief,” said Kesebang, as she pulled weeds on her parched plot of land.

As harsher droughts and hotter weather linked to climate change ruin crops more frequently in Botswana, the country is facing a new challenge: growing demand for social assistance programs.

SWELLING RANKS

About 68,000 people worked for Ipelegeng as of March 2018, according to figures from Statistics Botswana, up from about 64,000 in March 2016. Of those on the rolls, about 47,000 were women, according to the agency.

To accommodate rising demand, Botswana’s government last August increased the number of Ipelegeng slots by 5,000, after declaring 2018-2019 an expected drought year.

That will cost the country an extra $2.7 million – money that it does not readily have as its national budget does not specifically set money aside for drought relief, said Billyboy Siabatho, deputy director of the rural development council at the Ministry of Local Government and Rural Development.

“Often, when drought comes, we end up borrowing from funds that would have been set aside for infrastructure development projects,” he said.

Ipelegeng’s main objective is to provide short term employment and relief, while helping carry out development efforts the country sees as important, he said.

“During drought periods, there are fewer farming activities. Therefore most people relocate from farms to villages, looking for alternative sources of income,” Siabatho said.

“Due to limited job opportunities in rural areas, most people rely on Ipelegeng as an alternative source of employment,” he noted.

But as droughts continue to worsen in southern Africa, Siabatho wonders whether the government will be able to keep pace with growing demand.

He also worries whether people will begin to see dependence on safety nets as an easier route than farming, as crop failures worsen.

Botswana’s government, aware of the risks from worsening drought, began in December working on a new drought management strategy that aims to improve planning and budgeting for threats and not focus simply on responding to them, Siabatho said.

‘BEANS ARE BURNING’

For Kesebang, such help can’t come soon enough. Her farm, a few kilometers out of the town of Molepolole, sits in Kweneng District, which has the highest poverty levels in the country, of over 50 percent, according to 2018 report by Statistics Botswana.

Most of the 567 pula ($55) she earns each month she works for Ipelegeng goes to keep her youngest son in primary school.

“I buy books and uniform. Often nothing is really left. Life has become difficult,” she said.

The new planting season isn’t looking much more promising either, she said. Most of the maize, beans, sweet reed and watermelon she planted in late December are struggling, she said.

“The beans are already burning. I have no hope of harvesting maize. Maybe the watermelons will survive,” she said, hopefully.

She’s already given up plowing three-quarters of her farm, to avoid greater losses, she said, though she has allowed a friend to try her luck farming a four-hectare section.

For now, Kesebeng heads to town each day to join hundreds of other temporary workers trimming tree branches that obstruct traffic.

Harsher weather isn’t hitting only the poorest farmers, either. Oduetse Koboto, who heads the environment and climate change unit at the United Nations Development Programme, said he saw little harvest from his own farm last year, in part because of floods.

“I planted tomatoes on 1.5 hectares. I expected to make 200,000 pula ($19,000). I lost. I had also planted a hectare of green peppers, expecting 600,000 pula ($58,000) from it. I lost all that too,” he said.

His 600 mango trees produced not a single useable fruit, he added, and “this is regardless of the fact that I use drip irrigation, solar pumping, and spent on farm maintenance all year round”.

“Imagine what the poor in villages must be going through,” he said.

RISING COSTS

Botswana for over a decade has invested in helping farmers boost grain production and improve food security, including through measures such as better access to credit, technology, seeds and water.

But with droughts worsening, improving harvests remains a challenge – and the country continues to import over 80 percent of its food from South Africa.

“Low production in the agricultural sector due to drought has led to high import bills in cereals, dairy, poultry products and feeds, to name but a few,” Siabatho said.

Costs for programs like Ipelegeng also are rising, he said, noting that the program now costs over $28 million a year to run.

For Kesebang, stress levels are also rising. After watching her new crops wilt, she was nearly hospitalized as a result of anxiety and high blood pressure, she said, and had to remain in Molepolole for two weeks.

Recent rains have now given her a bit more optimism.

“A week into February it rained at least twice. The few plants that survived are recovering. I have hope,” she said. -Reuters

Sharon Tshipa

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South Africa’s Eskom Extends Power Cuts, Needs Bailout By April

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South African power utility Eskom cut electricity for a fourth straight day on Wednesday, as the department of public enterprises warned the struggling state-owned firm needed a cash injection by April to survive.

Eskom, which supplies more than 90 percent of the power in Africa’s most industrialized economy but is laden with more than $30 billion of debt, is battling a shortage of capacity that threatens to derail government plans to lift the sluggish economy.

President Cyril Ramaphosa said last week that the government would support Eskom’s balance sheet but said details would be announced in a budget speech by the finance minister on Feb. 20.

The department of public enterprises, which oversees Eskom, said in a presentation to parliament that Eskom was technically insolvent and would “cease to exist” at the current trajectory by April, unless it gets the bailout. The minister, Pravin Gordhan, however, ruled out privatization of the utility.

The department also said Eskom was struggling to keep its mainly coal-fired plants running due to coal shortages and poor maintenance, with 40 percent of breakdowns a result of human error.

The cash-strapped company said it would cut 3,000 megawatts (MW) of power from the national grid from 0600 GMT on Wednesday, likely until 2100 GMT. This follows a similar cut on Tuesday and 4,000 MW on Monday in the worst power cuts seen in several years that drove the rand currency down on Monday. The rand was slightly firmer against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday.

Around a third of Eskom’s 45,000 MW capacity was offline on Tuesday.

The power cuts are prompting frustration among ordinary South Africans, with traffic gridlock in major cities during rush hours as traffic lights stop working and switched-off fans leave office workers sweating in the summer heat.

Business owners with no access to backup power sources have also been hit.

“We’re struggling,” said Eunice Mashaba, a manager of a textile shop north of Johannesburg who said he had to close the shop early on Tuesday because most customers do not carry cash but have to rely on debit or credit cards for payment.

Ramaphosa announced a plan last week to split Eskom into three separate entities in an effort to make it more efficient as he tries to lift the economy before an election in May, but faces opposition from powerful labor unions and from within his ruling African National Congress party. -Reuters

-Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo and Wendell Roelf

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A Bad Omen? Emerging Markets ‘Most Crowded Trade’ For First Time

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Investors made a U-turn on emerging markets, naming them the most crowded trade, in Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s survey for the first time in its history.

This marked a big reversal from last month, when fund managers said “short EM” was the third most-crowded trade – showing how fast the mood can shift in an uncertain market.

It could prove to be a bad omen for emerging markets, though, as assets named “most crowded” usually sink soon afterwards.

Previous “most crowded” trades have included Bitcoin, and the U.S. FAANG tech stocks, which led the selloff in December.

Emerging-market stocks .MSCIEF are up 7.8 percent so far this year, and flow data on Friday showed investors pumped record amounts of money into emerging stocks and bonds.

Emerging-market assets had a torrid 2018. Crises in Turkey and Argentina ripped through developing countries already suffering from a strong dollar and rising U.S. yields pushing up borrowing costs.

But a dovish turn by the Fed at the start of the year, indicating the world’s top central bank would not raise interest rates as quickly as previously expected, sparked fresh enthusiasm among investors.

Major asset managers and investment banks such as JPMorgan, Citi and BlueBay Asset Management ramped up their exposure to emerging markets in recent weeks..

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) predicted a “wall of money” was set to flood into emerging market assets.

However, there are some indications momentum may be waning. Analyzing flows of its own clients, investment bank Citi noted they had turned cautious on emerging-market assets over the last week, with both real money and leveraged investors pulling out funds following four weeks of inflows.

BAML did not specify whether the “long EM” crowded trade referred to bonds, equities or both.

Outside emerging markets, investors’ main concern remained the possibility of a global trade war. It topped the list of biggest tail risks for the ninth straight month, followed by a slowdown in China, the world’s second-largest economy, and a corporate credit crunch.

Overall, BAML’s February survey – conducted between Feb. 1 and 7, with 218 panelists managing $625 billion in total – showed investor sentiment had hardly improved. Global equity allocations fell to their lowest levels since September, 2016.

“Despite the recent rally, investor sentiment remains bearish,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BAML.

SECULAR STAGNATION

Investors remained worried about the global economy, with 55 percent of those surveyed bearish on both the growth and inflation outlook for the next year.

“Secular stagnation is the consensus view,” BAML strategists wrote.

Following this theme, investors were most positive on cash and, within equities, preferred high-dividend-yielding sectors like pharmaceuticals, consumer discretionary, and real estate investment trusts.

As investors added to their cash allocations, the number of fund managers overweight cash hit its highest level since January, 2009.

The least preferred sectors were those sensitive to the cycle, like energy and industrials – which BAML strategists see as good contrarian investments if “green shoots” appear in the global economy.

Worries about corporate debt were still running high, with this month’s survey showing a new high in the number of investors demanding companies reduce leverage.

Some 46 percent of fund managers find corporate balance sheets to be over-leveraged, the survey found, and 51 percent of investors want companies to use cash flow to improve their balance sheets. That’s the highest percentage since July 2009.

Europe, one of investors’ least-favored regions, showed a slight improvement. A net 5 percent reported being overweight euro zone stocks, from 11 percent underweight last month.

But investors’ reported intention to own European stocks in the next year dropped to six-year lows as the profit outlook for the region continued to lag.

Allocations to UK stocks increased slightly from last month but the UK remained investors’ “consensus underweight”, BAML said. It has been so since February 2016. -Reuters

-Josephine Mason, Helen Reid, and Karin Strohecker

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