The military has taken control of the national broadcaster, troops are in the streets and the president is being held in a secure environment. All military leave is cancelled and a senior general has addressed the nation. Yet the Zimbabwean military continues with the pretence that this is <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2017-11-15-zimbabwe-army-in-control-of-state-institutions-but-insists-not-a-coup/#.Wg2PqE27LL8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">not a coup d’etat</a>.
The obvious response to this is: if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then the chances are it’s a duck. And the sole reason the Zimbabwean military is not acknowledging this as a coup d’etat is to avoid triggering the country’s automatic suspension from the <a href="https://au.int/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">African Union</a> and the Southern African Development Community <a href="http://www.sadc.int/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">(SADC)</a>. Both bodies frown on coups.
A perfect storm formed ahead of these events and made military action predictable. The country had once again entered a steep economic decline (not that its “recovery” had been anything of note). A clear and reckless bid for power was being made by the so-called <a href="https://www.theindependent.co.zw/2016/03/18/what-does-g40-want/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Generation 40 (G40) faction</a> around Grace Mugabe in direct opposition to the Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa, the standard bearer for the so-called <a href="http://www.pindula.co.zw/Lacoste,_Zanu-PF_Faction" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lacoste faction</a>.
This culminated in Mnangagwa’s dismissal by President Mugabe: a clear indication that Grace Mugabe was now calling the shots. It also served as a follow up to the 2015 Grace-engineered dismissal of another Vice President and rival, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-30400178" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Joice Mujuru</a>.
The coup means that Mugabe’s long and disastrous presidency is finally over. The only questions that remain are the precise details and mechanics of the deal which secures his departure.
<h2>Why the coup?</h2>
Mnangagwa is a long time Zanu-PF stalwart and is clearly closely integrated with the military high command and the intelligence services. Both institutions are concerned that the succession is being arranged for a faction led by people with no liberation credentials but who have been skilled in manipulating Mugabe himself and in making him do their bidding. The G40 now appear to have overreached, perhaps believing that their proximity to the “old man” made them invincible.
This coup’s explicit purpose is twofold. First, it’s trying to definitively kill off Grace Mugabe’s ambitions to become president and to set in place a ruling dynasty akin to the Kims in North Korea. Second, it’s a bid to clear Mnangagwa’s path to power, first in Zanu-PF and then within the state itself (over the last three decades these have been virtually one and the same thing).
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/16/whats-next-embattled-zimbabwe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: What&#8217;s next for embattled Zimbabwe?</a>
What we do not yet know is what counter force, if any, the G40 can bring to bear against the military. The calculation of the military hierarchy appears to be that Grace and company are paper tigers who will have few cards to play against such force majeure and who lack the popular appeal to bring angry and disillusioned masses out onto the streets.
The coup has formally stripped away the façade that Zimbabwe is a constitutional state. This is clearly a militarised party-state where the military is a pivotal actor in the ruling party’s internal politics. It is not simply a neutral state agency subordinate to the civilian leadership. And the idea that this military intervention is an aberration – a departure from the constitutional norm – is misplaced.
Zimbabwe is a de facto military dictatorship. It serves as a guarantor of Zanu-PF rule rather than as a custodian of the constitution. It has helped Zanu-PF rig elections. And it was central to the state terror which was unleashed against the population to reverse Mugabe and Zanu-PF’s <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/2170138/Zimbabwe-Death-toll-rises-in-Robert-Mugabes-reign-of-terror-before-election.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">electoral defeat in 2008</a>. The military has always been a key political actor. The only difference this time is that its intervention is designed to control events within Zanu-PF rather than to crush opposition to it.
But, a highly politicised military is a major impediment to the re-establishment of a democratic order in Zimbabwe. It has nothing to gain, politically or financially, from democratic rule given the lucrative networks of embezzlement and plunder it’s put in place over decades. Most recently it seized and siphoned off of the country’s diamond wealth for military officers and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/12/zimbabwe-diamonds-mugabe-marange-fields" target="_blank" rel="noopener">party hierarchy</a>.
This intervention is designed to secure the presidency for Mnangagwa. So it is hard to avert our eyes from the elephant – or in this case the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-41995876" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crocodile</a> – in the room. Mnangagwa is the Mugabe henchman who helped enable the misrule and tyranny of the last 37 years. He was one of the principal architects of the <a href="https://books.google.co.za/books?id=zi-tWekXbD8C&amp;pg=PA19&amp;lpg=PA19&amp;dq=%22the+early+rain+which+washes+away+the+chaff+before+the+spring+rains%22&amp;source=bl&amp;ots=dWX2SIUj7r&amp;sig=0aDLpmmQfN93e_RNJuKcBmGGEYI&amp;hl=en&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=0ahUKEwioi-joj6LWAhWE7hoKHRF_C7wQ6AEIOTAD#v=onepage&amp;q=%22the%20early%20rain%20which%20washes%20away%20the%20chaff%20before%20the%20spring%20rains%22&amp;f=false" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gukurahundi</a> – the genocidal attack on the Ndebele – in the early to mid-1980s which left at least 20,000 people dead.
He has also been instrumental in rigging elections and crushing all opposition to Zanu-PF rule, including the <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2017-11-15-after-mugabe-what-next?utm_source=Mail+%26+Guardian&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=Daily+newsletter&amp;utm_term=https%3A%2F%2Fmg.co.za%2Farticle%2F2017-11-15-after-mugabe-what-next" target="_blank" rel="noopener">atrocities of 2008</a>.
Expecting such a person to now make a deathbed conversion to the democracy, constitutional government and good governance he has spent an entire career liquidating is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/15/mugabe-gone-zimbabweans-decide-future-mnangagwa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dangerous nonsense</a>.
<h2>Dilemmas to come</h2>
Mnangagwa will soon have to confront a series of dilemmas. How can he put in place an administration which has the appearance of a national unity government, can secure international approval and the financial assistance required to help rebuild a shattered economy – but avoid ceding any meaningful power or control? Can this circle be squared?
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2017/06/01/the-pain-of-mugabe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: The Pain Of Mugabe</a>
The best hope for Zimbabweans is that the international community uses its leverage wisely and sets stringent conditions for such assistance: free elections closely monitored by an array of international organisations, the establishment of a new electoral commission, free access to the state media and the right of parties to campaign freely.
There should also be a role here for South Africa to restore its badly tarnished image as a champion of democracy in Africa. It has followed a malign path over the last two decades, facilitating Zanu-PF authoritarianism in the name of a threadbare and increasingly degenerate “liberation solidarity”.
Such a combination of pressures will severely restrict Mnangagwa’s room for manoeuvre. Anything short of that will deliver an outcome which is essentially Mugabeism without Mugabe. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-hamill-254226" target="_blank" rel="author noopener">James Hamill</a>, Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, University of Leicester
Originally published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>
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Mnangagwa and the military may mean more bad news for Zimbabwe

Nobody is safe from the rages of Zimbabwe’s First Lady, “<a href="https://www.thestandard.co.zw/2014/09/21/grace-mugabes-doctorate-uz-remains-mum/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dr</a>. Amai” Grace Mugabe. There was the young <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/special-features/zimbabwe/grace-mugabe-split-my-head-open-claims-joburg-woman-10788605" target="_blank" rel="noopener">South African model</a> Grace lashed with extension cords. Ninety-three-year-old President Robert Mugabe’s longtime and usually trusted ally <a href="https://www.africa-confidential.com/article/id/12164/Mugabe_drops_the_crocodile" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Emmerson Mnangagwa</a>, was next in the firing line: he was sacked because his supporters allegedly <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/Zimbabwe/an-ordinary-man-after-all-mugabe-fires-right-hand-man-mnangagwa-20171106" target="_blank" rel="noopener">booed</a> her at a rally.
The consequences of her vengeance may have <a href="http://nehandaradio.com/2017/11/14/live-updates-situation-zimbabwe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">led to a coup</a> headed by Zimbabwe’s army chief General Constantino Chiwenga, who is commonly perceived to be Mnangagwa’s protégé. But <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/who-is-emmerson-mnangagwa/4115612.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ex-freedom fighter Mnangagwa</a> has his own presidential aspirations.
Mnangagwa has been exiled from the party in which he has served since he was a teenager. But he is not just skulking in the political wilderness. On arrival in South Africa he issued a statement calling those who wanted him out <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/Zimbabwe/full-statement-im-not-going-anywhere-zanu-pf-is-not-your-personal-property-mnangagwa-tells-mugabe-20171108" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“minnows”</a>. He promised to control his party “very soon” and urged his supporters to register to vote in the national elections next July.
As if to back Mnangagwa, on November 13 General Chiwenga announced that he and his officers could not allow the “counter-revolutionary infiltrators”, implied to be behind Grace Mugabe, to <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/13/zimbabwe-army-chief-warns-mugabes-party-military-may-intervene/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">continue their purges</a>.
<h2>Factions and purges</h2>
Chiwenga <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-41992351" target="_blank" rel="noopener">declared</a> that the armed forces must ensure all party members attend the extraordinary Zanu-PF congress next month with “equal opportunity to exercise their democratic rights”. He flashed back through Zanu-PF’s history of factionalism, reminding his listeners that although the military “will not hesitate to step in” it has never “usurped power”. Chiwenga promised to defuse all the differences “amicably and in the ruling party’s closet”.
Although this airbrushed more than it <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02589001.2014.956499" target="_blank" rel="noopener">revealed</a> about the party’s rough patches when leadership vacuums appeared, the statement appeared more as a cautionary note than a clarion call to arms. It’s not often a coup is announced before it starts; but once in motion direction – and history – can change. Grace Mugabe may have unleashed a perfect storm and her own undoing.
All the “shenanigans” that have inspired the generals to consider a coup have set the stage for an extraordinary Zanu-PF congress this December instead of in the expected 2019: that is, before rather than after the July 2018 national elections.
This suggests some people were in a hurry to settle the succession issues for the president, who is now showing every one of his 93 years. Maybe Robert Mugabe won’t rule until he is <a href="http://www.hsrcpress.ac.za/product.php?productid=2114&amp;freedownload=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">100-years-old</a>. If not, and <a href="https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/mugabes-zimbabwe-has-an-angry-population-and-a-potentially-violentfuture/article36934238/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">members of his family</a> or party wanted to keep their dynasties alive, they had to work quickly lest some similarly inclined contenders are in their way.
These contenders include Mnangagwa and a slew of his <a href="http://www.pindula.co.zw/Lacoste,_Zanu-PF_Faction" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“Lacoste” faction</a> consisting of war veterans and the odd financial liberal. The best-known of these is Patrick Chinamasa. This former finance minister tried to convince the world’s bankers he could pull Zimbabwe <a href="https://theconversation.com/zimbabwes-financial-system-is-living-on-borrowed-time-and-borrowed-money-86159" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out of the fire</a>. He was demoted to control cyberspace and then fired. Perhaps he may make a comeback in the wake of the semi-coup.
The pro-Grace faction includes the members of <a href="https://www.theindependent.co.zw/2016/03/18/what-does-g40-want/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Generation 40, or “G-40”</a>. Many are well over 40. But in Robert Mugabe’s shadow they appear young, as does the 52-year-old First Lady. Without a base in the liberation-war cohort, they resorted to working with the Mugabe couple: sometimes their ideology appears radical, espousing indigenous economics and more land to the tillers.
If the history of their best-known member – the current Minister of Higher Education <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/Jonathan_Moyo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jonathan Moyo</a> – is indicative, however, they are pragmatic; or less politely put, opportunist.
But with Grace Mugabe sans Robert, they would have to muster inordinate amounts of patience and manipulation to steer the sinking ship to the shores of stable statehood and incorporate yet <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Search-Elusive-Zimbabwean-Dream-Autobiography/dp/0994707924" target="_blank" rel="noopener">younger generations</a> who cut their political teeth as Robert Mugabe’s rule faltered.
<h2>Perfidious ‘saviours’</h2>
Yet the possible plan for the upcoming congress – to create a third vice-president – appears not to move far beyond the cold hands of the old. <a href="https://www.news24.com/Tags/People/phelekezela_mphoko" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Phelekezela Mphoko</a> would be pushed to third vice-president status. Grace would be the second vice-president.
The current defence minister, <a href="https://www.theindependent.co.zw/2017/11/10/mnangagwas-great-escape-details/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sydney Sekeramayi</a> would be first vice-president and so, next in line for the presidential palace. He is a quiet but no less tarnished member of the Zanu-PF old guard; especially when one remembers the massacre of thousands of Ndebele people during the <a href="https://books.google.co.za/books?id=zi-tWekXbD8C&amp;pg=PA19&amp;lpg=PA19&amp;dq=%22the+early+rain+which+washes+away+the+chaff+before+the+spring+rains%22&amp;source=bl&amp;ots=dWX2SIUj7r&amp;sig=0aDLpmmQfN93e_RNJuKcBmGGEYI&amp;hl=en&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=0ahUKEwioi-joj6LWAhWE7hoKHRF_C7wQ6AEIOTAD#v=onepage&amp;q=%22the%20early%20rain%20which%20washes%20away%20the%20chaff%20before%20the%20spring%20rains%22&amp;f=false" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gukurahundi</a>.
When performing the calculus necessary to rectify Zimbabwe’s graceless imbalances, remember that Mnangagwa was perhaps the key architect of the nearly genocidal Gukurahundi, now chronicled in archival detail in historian Stuart Doran’s <a href="https://www.sithatha.com/books" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kingdom, Power, Glory: Mugabe, Zanu, and the Quest for Supremacy</a>. Among the scores implicated therein are the British, condemned by Hazel Cameron, another meticulous archivist, as exercising <a href="https://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/news/archive/2017/zimbabwe-cameron/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“wilful blindness”</a> during what Robert Mugabe has dismissed as a “moment of madness”.
Perhaps it’s no surprise, then, that many are suspicious of Mnangagwa’s <a href="http://africanarguments.org/2017/11/08/zimbabwe-the-uks-misguided-role-in-the-rise-and-fall-of-mnangagwa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">relationship</a> with the UK. Many suspect he has been swimming with perfidious Albion for a very, very long time.
Those waters, in the shadow of Mugabe’s heritage, will take a few more generations of hard political work to clear. It hardly seems propitious that a coup, and the same generation that has ruled since 1980, starts it off.
&#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-b-moore-285501" target="_blank" rel="author noopener">David B. Moore</a>, Professor of Development Studies, University of Johannesburg and originally published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>
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What’s next for embattled Zimbabwe?

It’s only a few weeks to the much anticipated African National Congress (ANC) leadership race. The number of people who want to be president has grown &#8211; unheard of in the 105-year history of the embattled ANC, the oldest party on the continent. President Jacob Zuma, who anointed his ex-wife, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, expressed dismay at the number of candidates who want to replace him. But the party veteran and former acting president, Kgalema Motlanthe, thinks there’s nothing wrong.
“It’s actually an anomaly and I suppose it is also a sign of state of health of the ANC because these contenders are members of the National Executive Committee (NEC0, which issued a directive at the beginning of the year that nobody should mention any names,” says Motlanthe.
Dlamini-Zuma, the former Africa Union chairperson and the country’s former foreign affairs, health and home affairs minister, and Cyril Ramaphosa, the Deputy President of South Africa, are the hot contenders. Ahead of the elective conference, starting on December 16 in Johannesburg, ANC members are at loggerheads. Motlanthe decried the premature announcement of contenders and says it goes against party tradition.
Zweli Mkhize, the Treasurer-General of the party, is favored as a second choice by supporters of Dlamini-Zuma.
“We leave everything to the branches to select their leadership and we make ourselves available. I still intend to be part of that leadership, and therefore we believe that as that collective that will emerge, we will be able to work together to focus on issues that will help to build the economy and ensure good governance,” Mkhize told FORBES AFRICA.
Gwede Mantashe, the party’s Secretary General and one of the most powerful members of the NEC, said the number of contenders was ridiculous, during his address of OR Tambo memorial lecture in September.
“It’s ridiculous because we are an organization, we know one another and we know our capabilities. It’s not just a question of coin tossing,” says Mantashe.
<div id="attachment_34368" style="width: 510px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-34368" class=" wp-image-34368" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Kgalema-Motlanthe-e1510557506890-300x224.jpg" alt="Kgalema Motlanthe" width="500" height="373" />Kgalema Motlanthe (Photo by Getty Images)</div>
The ANC has been divided since the 2007 elective conference in Polokwane, in the Limpopo province, where former President Thabo Mbeki, who had hinted at a third term, lost to Zuma, the man he fired as Deputy President in 2005. Since then, competing factions sought control of the party. It continued at the elective conference in 2012, in Mangaung, in the Free State, where Zuma easily defeated Motlanthe’s faction.
“The eradication of factionalism is going to be a long process because it is not just a once-off process; it is going to be something that is going to be linked into rebuilding the values, political education and bringing back party education. There’s also action to those who are involved in corruption, those who are arrogant and those who are not serving the community. All those need to be acted upon so that people can be convinced the ANC is working on some of the things it objected to,” says Mkhize.
ANC is riven by all kinds of scandal; from thousands of illegal members in KwaZulu-Natal, the political murders of whistle-blowers and the leaked Gupta family emails implicating ministers in so-called state capture – that is the takeover of government by private business.
“The ANC has been in power for 23 years and what has happened; corruption is very rife, the generosity and selflessness of former freedom fighters has been turned into greed and desire for the acquisition of material benefits which of course creates a sense of grievance in a majority of people who felt left out. Many of our people are not asking for pity, they are asking for opportunities so they can do for themselves what others are doing for themselves. The number of people without jobs has increased,” says Motlanthe.
“When the Constitution was crafted we hoped we would always have people of Mandela’s strong character in office. Now we know better.”
Whoever emerges victorious in December will be put forward as the ANC candidate for the general election in 2019. The party needs a good one if it is to cling to power against the growing opposition.
“It’s a moot question whether the ANC will retain power beyond the December conference. I don’t know if the new leadership of the ANC that will be elected will understand that or whether they will think by using more slogans you can win people, or a well-couched policy position, will crack it. People go by their lived experience. It will take some doing,” says Motlanthe.
<h2>The pros and cons of the main candidates:</h2>
Cyril Ramaphosa – As the Deputy President of the country and the ANC, it is expected he should be the next man in line. The killings of 34 miners in Marikana in 2012 affected Ramaphosa’s popularity in South Africa. He was a shareholder in Lonmin, the mining company that operated Marikana. But he’s seen as a business-minded candidate and maybe a little too close to the boardroom for the unions.
Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma – She is one of the longest serving parliamentarians, appointed in 1994 by President Nelson Mandela, she held a string of ministerial posts. Soon after serving as the chairperson of the African Union, Dlamini-Zuma was again sworn in as the Member of Parliament. The fact that she’s the ex-wife of President Zuma, she’s viewed as a proxy of her former husband who could yet face 783 criminal charges.  Dlamini-Zuma could be South Africa’s first female president.
Zweli Mkhize – He is the Treasurer-General of the ANC NEC and for a long time was an ally of President Zuma until he announced his interest to contest for his position. He is one of the favorites of the biggest ANC constituency of KwaZulu-Natal. The fact that he’s vying for the same support base as Dlamini-Zuma will make it tough.
Baleka Mbete – She is the Chairwoman of the NEC and was appointed Speaker of the National Assembly in 2014. Mbete was previously endorsed by ANC Women’s League, but she’s no longer their candidate since Dlamini-Zuma was endorsed early this year.
Lindiwe Sisulu – She’s one of surprise packages. The minister of housing is the daughter of the late Walter and Albertina Sisulu, both ANC stalwarts. ANC Chief Whip Jackson Mthembu and opposition leader Julius Malema called her “politically immature” but she has solid cabinet experience and a famous name.
Jeff Radebe – He is seen as an outsider to lead the ANC. Since 2014, he has served as the Minister in the Presidency. As a cabinet minister, he has served in different portfolios since President Mandela in 1994. In late June, Radebe accepted a nomination from ANC Midvaal, in Gauteng, but ever since then is the quiet candidate whom many are not giving a chance.
&#8211; Additional reporting by Thobile Hans

The Southern Slug Fest

Forbes’ <a href="https://www.forbes.com/power-women/#60d299915e25" target="_blank" rel="noopener">100 World’s Most Powerful Women 2017 ranking</a> features only one Trump—and it’s not the First Lady. Since its inception in 2004, this is the first time our annual directory of the women who matter most on the global stage does not include the wife of the U.S. president. It is also the only time a First Daughter has found herself in the ranking: Ivanka Trump lands as the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/power-women/#60d299915e25" target="_blank" rel="noopener">No. 19 </a>Most Powerful Woman. As Ivanka—a senior advisor to President Donald Trump —has risen as a weighty voice in the White House, Melania Trump appears to have assumed a far quieter role.
Officially advising her father since March, Ivanka has been both praised and criticized for her influence in the Trump Administration. The First Daughter (and wife of Jared Kushner, also a senior advisor to the president) is known to have more liberal views than 45. While it’s widely contested how much she has been able to tip her father’s policies to the left, she is one of the few women who are close to the highest office in the country.
<a href="https://www.forbes.com/power-women/#60d299915e25" target="_blank" rel="noopener">See Full List: 100 World&#8217;s Most Powerful Women</a>
“I am a real estate developer and an entrepreneur. More important, I’m a wife and a mother,” Ivanka wrote in her 2017 self-help book called Women Who Work. “I design and build iconic properties all over the world; I have also created and am growing a business that seeks to inspire and empower women in all aspects of their lives. I’m busy teaching my children the value of hard work and the importance of family.”
As the founder of her eponymous retail brand, Ivanka Trump has been a self-proclaimed women’s rights advocate long before her role at the White House. She launched the initiative Women Who Work in 2014 (a precursor to her 2017 book), highlighting the lives of working American women and mothers. By the time she joined the family quest to the ultimate frontier; the White House, she had already taken the reins of the family business as the executive VP at the Trump Organization, and the cofounder of Trump Hotels and their more affordable hotel line, Scion. In June 2015, however, she took on a different role and introduced her father when he declared his candidacy in New York City. A little over a year later, she set the stage for him at the Republican National Convention.
“My father values talent. He recognizes real knowledge and skill when he finds it. He is color blind and gender neutral,” the soon-to-be first daughter said as she addressed 50,000 people in Cleveland, “he will fight for equal pay for equal work, and I will fight for this too, right alongside of him.” Since her father announced he would pursue a ticket to the White House, Ivanka has claimed women’s rights would be central to the Trump presidency—even after the Washington Post released an Access Hollywood tape from 2005 which revealed Trump’s lewd remarks about women.
Whether the extent of Ivanka’s influence has been what many have anticipated remains unclear, however. Ivanka, who identifies herself as a political independent, joined congressional Republicans like Marco Rubio in October to call for an increase in the child tax credit, one of her projects under her father’s presidency. She also spearheaded a memorandum in September that set aside at least $200 million to prioritize teaching coding in U.S. schools, especially for girls and minorities.
Yet, the senior advisor has also been widely scrutinized, especially by those who thought she would challenge some of her father’s social views. In July—a month after Ivanka declared her support for the LGBTQ community—many took to Twitter to criticize her lack of apparent response to Trump’s proposed ban on transgender individuals serving in the army. “I am proud to support my LGBTQ friends and the LGBTQ Americans who have made immense contributions to our society and economy,” she had tweeted during the NYC Pride Week.
In the first months of his presidency, Trump also took a lot of heat for withdrawing from the Paris climate accord, for extending the “global gag rule,” and for not immediately denouncing neo-Nazis and the KKK after a white nationalist rally in Charlottesville, causing Ivanka to be depicted as “complicit,” especially by those who disapprove of the current trajectory of the Trump presidency.
“If being complicit is wanting to, is wanting to be a force for good and to make a positive impact then I’m complicit,” <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ivanka-trump-interview-what-it-means-to-be-complicit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the advisor told CBS This Morning</a> in April. “I don’t know that the critics who may say that of me, if they found themselves in this very unique and unprecedented situation that I am now in, would do any differently than I am doing.”
&#8220;The musical Hamilton showed us that it matters to be in the ‘room where it happens.’ Ivanka wants everyone to know she was in the room, but was not responsible for whatever happens,” said Andrea Purse, former White House communications staffer during the Obama Administration. “On issue after issue—on climate, LGBT issues, ‘women&#8217;s’ issues that she claims to care about, she has failed to deliver when it mattered most.&#8221;
In August, Ivanka was under heavy fire again due to her support for the halt of a planned Obama-era rule that would have required businesses to begin collecting data to combat pay discrimination, a cause she has championed. “Whether my contribution ultimately lives up to the expectations of some of the harshest critics? Only time will tell,” <a href="https://www.ft.com/ivanka" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">she told the Financial Times </a>in September.
Unlike Ivanka, Melania Trump fails to join the Most Powerful Women list as D.C. insiders claim that she hasn’t completely stepped up to the challenge yet. The First Lady trails powerful women who have trodden the White House like Laura Bush (who came on the list in 2004) and Michelle Obama (who came on in 2009). The expectations are high for the second immigrant First Lady of the U.S. (Louisa Adams, first lady in 1825, was the first) especially with President Trump’s stance on immigration, according to Kelly Gibson, a political consultant at the media firm in D.C.. “I think the role that [she] plays on the administrations’ opinions about immigration and access to what makes people successful in this country could make for very interesting conversation,” Gibson said.
While the skepticism persists, insiders – especially Democrats – expect First Lady Melania Trump, who according <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/21/politics/melania-trump-polling/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">to the latest CNN poll from September</a> is the most favorable Trump, to become a more significant voice. “On the campaign trail, she said that her main focus if she were first lady would be to take on bullying. Now that she’s FLOTUS, we haven’t seen her do much on bullying,” political analyst Cartney McCracken said. “But finally, this past Thursday we saw Melania step up in tackling one of the biggest threats to Americans— fighting the opioid epidemic.”
At the White House event in October where President Trump declared the opioid crisis a nationwide public health emergency, Melania made the first remarks, a rare occasion thus far. “And I have recently taken a larger interest in what I can do to help fight this epidemic,” she told the crowd, evoking an applause. “I have been participating in meetings and listening sessions, and I have been visiting with people who have been affected by this disease.”
As Melania Trump becomes a voice in addressing the drug addiction epidemic, her critics want to see her do more. “This first lady has not used her position to effect the public good yet,” Kelly Gibson said. “I think the office, FLOTUS, deserves to be on the most powerful list. I don’t think [Melania Trump] has stepped up and fully realized the potential for the good she can do, but am hopeful she will.” &#8211; Written by <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/denizcam/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-ga-track="contrib block byline">Deniz Cam</a>, FORBES STAFF

Why Ivanka Trumps Melania As A World’s Most Powerful Woman

These days the 75 year-old Joe Thloloe is the executive director of the Press Council overseeing the work that he has done for over half a century. Forty years ago he was a dashing young features writer on The World newspaper in Johannesburg. The only problem was the radical words he wrote upset the government of the day.
“From the time the National Party took over in 1948, they were determined to stamp down on the black population. The repression is much older than the 70s, the banning of publications, including books, had started by the 60s.  So what happened in the 70s was merely a continuation of what had been happening,” says Thloloe.
Long before Black Wednesday, police harassed and detained Thloloe for his social activism as a student.
“I was first arrested in 1960, on the day of the Sharpeville Massacre (March 21, 1960, where 69 died), as a student. I spent that whole year in jail. When The World was banned, I was a features writer for it. But, unfortunately for me, on the day the newspaper was banned I was already in jail,” says Thloloe.
<div id="attachment_33917" style="width: 311px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-33917" class=" wp-image-33917" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Joe-Thloloe-083-copy-200x300.jpg" alt="" width="301" height="452" />Joe Thloloe (Photo by Motlabana Monnakgotla)</div>
The founder and president of the defunct Union of Black Journalists (UBJ) says he was arrested for the second time, eight months before Black Wednesday, under section 6 of the Terrorism Act, which provided for detention without trial. Sathasivan ‘Saths’ Cooper was the secretary of the Black People’s Convention (BPC), which was among the black organizations banned in the build-up to Black Wednesday.
“It was an eerie period because a few weeks earlier Dullah Omar (a late African National Congress veteran) had brought the news that Steve Biko had been killed in detention,” Cooper told Radio702 in 2016.
Biko was the leader of the Black Consciousness Movement (BCM) who died from his injuries after he was tortured in Port Elizabeth and then driven, naked in the back of a police Land Rover, to Pretoria. He died on September 12.
“I remember driving through the streets of Johannesburg that morning and the street posters said, ‘Government Bans The World’. Okay, the newspaper was called The World, but it meant the government was trying to shield South Africans from being part of the world, shield white South Africans from information. We expected a lot of bad things from the apartheid government, but I didn’t think they would be as stupid as trying to ban a newspaper. It was quite devastating at the time,” says Max du Preez, Thloloe’s contemporary at the Rand Daily Mail, in Johannesburg.
“If I remember correctly, that was one of moments in my life which fired me on to say ‘one of the things, Max du Preez, you have to do is in your own way fight for freedom of speech, for freedom of the media’.  Eventually, in 1988, I decided to launch an anti-apartheid Afrikaans newspaper which I think was a very stupid idea,’” adds Du Preez. The newspaper was Vrye Weekblad (The Free Weekly).
Du Preez hoped to educate his Afrikaner people about the evils of apartheid.
You could argue, The World, founded, in 1932 by mining companies in Johannesburg to entertain their employees, grew in the struggle.
“Over time it developed to become a newspaper with news and politics etc. But it was always under very tight white control, the likes of the Nhlapos and Moeranes were the black nominal editors, but above them there’s a person called editorial director, who was in fact the actual editor. He would be the one who would tone down stories making sure that a particular style was kept. Although it carried politics, it carried general news, it was not radical stuff. In fact our competition, The Golden City Post, was much more outspoken,” says Thloloe, a Nieman Fellow in 1988.
The appointment of editor Percy Qoboza, in 1975, saw a radical change in the paper’s editorial line. He accepted the editorship on condition that there would be no editorial director looking over his shoulder.
“Percy was a radically changed man and the texture of the publication changed, its tone changed, it became much more radical in its approach. Percy is credited to have exposed June 16, but that exposure was in fact the work of Joe Latakgomo who had been acting editor while Percy was abroad,” says Thloloe.
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Qoboza, who died in 1988, returned to South Africa on June 1976, after his Nieman Fellowship in the US, and threw himself into black activism. Thloloe says under the stewardship of Latakgomo, The World was already covering stories about students’ political events leading to the uprising of June 16. Qoboza landed on the day it happened.
In those days, several black journalists were embedded in students’ activities in the townships, he says.
“They were the ones saying tomorrow we need to be in such and such place because they knew what was going to happen, where and at what time. That was the way in which journalists worked with the community,” says Thloloe.
Thloloe founded the Union of Black Journalists in 1972.
“We felt we were not given a space in the newsroom to write the way we wanted to write as blacks. Our slogan used to be: ‘We are black before we are journalists’. So, our writing should reflect our blackness and our thoughts as black people and our lives as black people,” says Thloloe.
“There was a very close relationship between the Black Consciousness Movement and the Union of Black Journalists. That was the ideology that was driving our society at that time; that we blacks had to fight the shackles around us.”
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Du Preez and other white journalists were not directly threatened by the draconian press laws until things got worse in the 1980s.
“That came a little later in the 80s, when the political temperature was higher. The government resorted to closing down more newspapers, like the New Nation and the Weekly Mail, and arresting journalists, like I was, and people like Zwelakhe Sisulu and others,” says Du Preez, a multiple award winner and prolific author.
Du Preez and Thloloe agree that the South African media landscape has changed for the better since democracy in 1994.
“The atmosphere in the country is far more open. What we have experienced in the last 23 years was a Constitution where freedom of speech was guaranteed and also we have the dealings of social media. That all contributed to the atmosphere where rigid censorship will be unthinkable in South Africa&#8230; We are a truly open society,” says Du Preez.
“There’s no danger that a newspaper can be closed at the whim of a minister, in the same way The World was. There’s no chance that anybody can get detained in the way we were. Freedom of expression is now guaranteed in the Constitution. On the surface we should be able to practice the best journalism we are capable of,” says Thloloe.
But Thloloe thinks the technological revolution is hindering the standard of journalism, as advertising has dwindled and the profession is losing quality journalists.
“Every person with a cellphone can become a reporter, editor, sub-editor, distributor. That has led to a number of things; newspaper readership has gone down very sharply, advertising has gone down, newspapers no longer make profits. Now you find drastic cost-cutting in newsrooms. Newsrooms are juniorized and the quality of journalism suffers,” says Thloloe.
At least, for now, for most newsrooms, the biggest threat is economic depression rather than ruthless authorities.

The Day The World Turned Black

Dressed in a blue suit and red tie, Donald Trump’s 79-year-old pick for Secretary of Commerce sat before a panel of senators for nearly four hours in January, deflecting dozens of questions with relative ease. When one legislator at the confirmation hearing asked <a href="https://www.forbes.com/profile/wilbur-ross-jr/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Wilbur Ross</a> how he would ensure that his official actions did not create conflicts of interest, given his vast personal holdings, Ross left little room for criticism. “I intend to be quite scrupulous about recusal and any topic where there is the slightest scintilla of doubt,” he said.
What he left unsaid, however, was that between the November election and January inauguration, he had quietly moved a chunk of assets into trusts for his family members, leaving more than $2 billion off of his financial disclosure report &#8211; and therefore out of the public eye. Ross revealed the existence of those assets, and the timing of the transfer, when Forbes asked why his financial disclosure form listed fewer assets than he had previously told the magazine he owned.
The hidden assets raise questions about whether the Secretary of Commerce violated federal rules and whether his family owns billions in holdings that could create the appearance of conflicts of interest.
Federal law requires incoming cabinet members to disclose assets they currently own, as well as any that produced income during the current and previous calendar years, even if they no longer own the assets. Ross says he followed all rules. But how someone could apparently hold $2 billion in assets, without producing big income that would show up on a financial disclosure report, raises more questions than answers.
Three months before the 2016 election, Ross’ assistant described his portfolio to Forbes as a mix that would theoretically throw off plenty of cash: $1.3 billion of municipal bonds, $1.3 billion worth of interests in general and limited partnerships, $550 million of equities, $225 million of art, $180 million in cash and $120 million worth of real estate.
That adds up to $3.7 billion. Last year, Forbes asked for documentation to prove the existence of those assets, received nothing in return, and ultimately estimated Ross’ fortune at a more conservative $2.9 billion for its annual Forbes 400 list of the richest Americans, published in October. This year, the Secretary of Commerce said he would dig up a breakdown of the assets he transferred into trusts, but he never sent anything. It is unclear whether he cited accurate figures either year.
Ross gave some clues about the structure of the trusts. “I’m not the beneficiary of them,” he said. “That’s the point. This is set up for children and things like that.” Are his children the only beneficiaries? “Yes, well, and some third parties.” What are the third parties? “It’s a complicated story, but there are children from former marriages, things like that, that are not actually my children but who are beneficiaries.” His wife’s two children? “No, others. We’ve both had a couple of marriages, as you probably know.” He said no one outside of his family is a beneficiary of the trusts.
But he did not answer more than a dozen follow-up questions, including how many trusts there are, whether he can reclaim the assets after he leaves government, and whether the trusts could pay him income in the future.
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Walter Shaub, who resigned as the director of the U.S. Office of Government Ethics in July 2017, said the rules governing a particular trust are key to understanding whether an official has to disclose the entire trust, or just the assets that produced income shortly before they were transferred out of the filer’s hands. “If someone were to divest an asset by giving it away, it’s important that that asset never wind up back in the donors’ hands again,” Shaub said. “If at some point in the future that person ends up with the asset again, it’s going to look like it was a sham divestiture.”
Two trust attorneys expressed doubt that Ross suddenly made a clean transfer of more than $2 billion to his family, a move that could trigger gift taxes of $800 million or more. Such a move would be especially perplexing, they said, since the Trump administration has proposed easing the tax burden on transfers between generations. “If the estate tax goes away,” said Donald Hamburg, a New York City-based trusts and estates attorney, “then why would you pay a lot of money to get property out of your estate to save estate taxes?”
Ross said he followed all tax rules. It is possible that he transferred some of the assets to his family members years ago. He initially told Forbes that he transferred assets into the trusts shortly after the Nov. 8, 2016 election. But in a later email, he hinted that some of the assets may have belonged to his family members previously. “My personal financial affairs have been complex for a number of years, not just one,” he wrote. “The rough estimates used by Forbes for many years were based on a broad definition of family assets.”
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Ross would not have been required to disclose assets that earned income in 2016 if he had transferred those assets to children in prior years. He did not answer a follow-up question directly asking if he had transferred some of the assets to his family members before the election.
In any case, the fact that the Secretary of Commerce says his family members are beneficiaries to trusts with more than $2 billion worth of undisclosed assets raised concerns among ethics experts. “That’s an enormous amount,” said Richard Painter, who served as the chief ethics lawyer for President George W. Bush. “It technically avoids the conflict of interest statutes, but don’t you think that the Senate ought to know that he basically avoided it by handing the conflict-producing asset over to your kids?”
Not including the undisclosed assets, Ross retains an estimated $700 million, still enough to make him one of the richest members of Donald Trump’s cabinet but not enough to qualify for The Forbes 400 list of America’s richest people. “I don’t care if I’m on the list or not,” he said. “That frankly doesn’t matter. But what I don’t want is for people to suddenly think that I’ve lost a lot of money when it’s not true.” &#8211; Written by <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-ga-track="contrib block byline">Dan Alexander</a>, FORBES STAFF

The Mystery Of Wilbur Ross’ Missing Billions

FORBES and Donald Trump. Talk about a complicated relationship. It&#8217;s been so for 35 years, since the birth of The Forbes 400. First, he was Playboy Trump. Then, The Donald. Then, Republican-candidate Trump. As New York&#8217;s ringmaster extraordinaire, he loved our rich list&#8211;until the newest one came out. Then he hated it, or at least the number we pinned on him. It was always too low&#8211;or &#8220;very low,&#8221; as only he can say it. As legend goes, it was so low one year he had words with the Forbes family.
Now, as president of the United States, he sent signals he wanted another Forbes cover (his fourth solo cover), much like celebrities rack up hosting gigs on Saturday Night Live. In the midst of a national tragedy, hurricanes and his early morning Twitter fisticuffs, he was ready to make the time. We were ready to oblige &#8211; in return for an interview focused on the first business president. Forbes and Trump. Maybe it&#8217;s more of a functional codependency.
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Trump is Trump. He will always be so, whether sitting behind a majestic desk in the Oval Office, where we talked with him last week, or at the &#8220;very best&#8221; table at Jean-Georges, a three-star Michelin restaurant in the Trump International Hotel &amp; Tower adjacent to Columbus Circle, where he took me to lunch several years ago. Yet this time he feigned no interest in his billions. No accountant was in tow to prove his net worth. Surrounding him this day were paintings, sculptures and writings of Washington and Lincoln. During our <a href="https://www.forbes.com/donald-trump/exclusive-interview/#62546f30bdec" target="_blank" rel="noopener">50-minute interview</a> he never asked what the number would be, sparing us a tongue-lashing and an inaugural-crowd-like media brouhaha.
America&#8217;s CEO for ten months, Trump&#8217;s unique C-suite mind has upended all White House norms, yet his new responsibilities humbled him for a split second&#8211;&#8220;Nothing prepares you for &#8230; when you send missiles, that means people are going to die. And nothing prepares you for that.&#8221; That can make it a &#8220;lonely&#8221; job, he says. He certainly snapped to life as our camera crew walked in. Remember, he is the master of his own image and was fixated on the photography.
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And he loves his current real estate, even though it can never really be his. The president joyfully showed our editor, Randall Lane, and me a bit of his new stomping grounds&#8211;a well-appointed terrace, a now-covered pool, a fabled room and the beautiful golf-course-like greenery outside his Oval Office window. He seemed as proud of the landscape as he is of Mar-a-Lago. From the Big Apple to the nation&#8217;s capital, Forbes and Trump live on. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/lewisdvorkin/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-ga-track="contrib block byline">Lewis DVorkin</a>, FORBES STAFF

50 Minutes In The Oval Office With Citizen Trump – And Barely A Word About His Money

It had been a day of noisy celebration, but you could have heard a pin drop just before midnight on the cusp of October 9, 1962, when the independent nation of Uganda was born.
Sixty thousand people stood in respectful silence at the poignant ceremony at the Kololo Stadium, in Kampala. The British flag, which had fluttered over Uganda for 68 years, was lowered to the strains of God Save the Queen; seconds later the black, yellow and red of Uganda was raised to the country’s new anthem. The crowd roared its approval and applauded the birth of Uganda; overhead fireworks crackled in the skies, bonfires blazed from the hilltops and across the city people sang and danced in the streets.
After decades of colonial rule Uganda was to join the growing club of free and independent nations in Africa. A nation that was to decide its own destiny under the authority of its own leaders in Kampala, rather than that of detached civil servants in London.
It was the climax of a day where all roads led to Kampala. From the break of dawn, thousands flooded into the city. As they arrived, many were handed free food and drink in celebration of a day to remember.
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From London, through the skies, arrived the Duke and Duchess of Kent, who were Britain’s representatives, at Entebbe Airport. The new government made the Duke of Kent the first ever Freeman of Kampala.
A glance at the grainy newsreel of the day is a peek into Africa’s long-lost colonial past. The Duke of Kent wore a white uniform and ceremonial sword on his hip; there was a 21-gun salute as he left the plane and a company of soldiers from the King’s African Rifles to inspect before he left the tarmac. Waiting for him was the governor general, Sir Walter Coutts, in a cocked hat with feathers. If you took the plane and the tarmac away, it could have been a scene from the 1860s instead of the 1960s.
As the bars and streets of the city filled up, 20,000 people turned out to watch a regatta on Lake Victoria, featuring races between long canoes. An annual event that began more than 100 years before the British arrived and survives until this day.
In the heat of the Kampala afternoon, there was a genteel garden party for 4,000 people complete with a brass band, tea and cakes. Strolling through the party, as slim as a reed, was Milton Obote, then just 37 years old, the man who was soon to become the first Prime Minister of Uganda. Later, the Prime Minister opened the new Independence Pavilion of Science and Industry at the Uganda Museum.
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As the sun went down, crowds poured into Kololo Stadium for the midnight handover. A military tattoo, that could have been in Edinburgh, saw British soldiers and Ugandans dance step for step.
First, the world-famous Acholi dancers from northern Uganda, who set the pace with a routine to the pulse of beating drums, then came a group of soldiers from the Scottish infantry regiment, the Gordon Highlanders, resplendent in kilts, who danced a Highland reel.
It was a night of military might to the sound of fife and drum; the Fourth Battalion of the Kings African Rifles, soon to become the First Battalion of the Uganda Rifles, performed a perfect slow march before the cheering crowds.
“Our independence shall mean great responsibilities for all of us without exception. Collectively, we shall all be responsible to safeguard our independence and to ensure peace and stability within our country. In addition, the government in whose name I now speak offers to you a firm determination to protect your life and property and opportunities for your advancement,” said the new Prime Minister Obote in his speech.
“It is in this ensuring of peace and stability and this determination for the protection of life and property coupled with opportunities for advancement as individuals and combinations and as a country that I now call upon all to pass an irrevocable resolution marking our new status and guiding us into the future. Let us add to that resolution that we are of Uganda and Uganda is ours. Let us recognize that and pay our tribute to these friends from inside and outside Uganda who have helped us on our way to independence. Let us remember the best we have received and now inherit from the British administrators. I also ask all to give the missionaries past and present a special praise for the light they brought and do still maintain.”
As the black, yellow and red flag flew through the dawn, Ugandans woke up to a new world where they were, at last, masters of their own destiny.

A Night To Remember As Uganda Was Born

Globally, it is a rarity for courts to nullify presidential election results; in Africa this was totally outlandish – that is until the Supreme Court in Kenya on September 1, 2017 annulled the re-election of Uhuru Kenyatta.
The shock that followed the Supreme Court verdict reverberated across Africa and is unlikely to die anytime soon, especially in Kenya where successive general elections have been dogged by concern of vote rigging and political instability, as highlighted by the violence that followed a disputed 2007 election when more than 1,200 people were killed.
“The Supreme Court decision for a repeat of the presidential election means Kenyans have an opportunity to truly elect a leader through the ballot  as per the Constitution and without manipulation of votes,” says John Mwandu, a political analyst in Nairobi.
The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has tentatively scheduled the rematch between President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga for October 17, 2017.
But as campaigns for the new election got underway, the fear of violence that has characterized recent Kenyan elections has only intensified as both sides rallied their supporters.
“While one could understand the initial euphoria and outrage that greeted the ruling, sobriety should have taken over as the dust settled and the reality of the ruling sunk in. However, each day has brought a new barrage of threats, insults, half-truths and ethnic slurs that do not augur well for a peaceful outcome in six weeks,” Gabriel Dolan, a Catholic priest based in Kenya’s second-largest city of Mombasa said in a commentary.
“In fact, the country appears to be more polarized now than before last month’s general election,” he added.
Kenyatta’s campaigns for the new elections have dwelled on bashing the Supreme Court for allegedly going against the will of the majority by nullifying the August 18, 2017 election results in which he was declared the winner by a margin of 1.4 million votes against rival Odinga.
Just hours after the Supreme Court handed its decision, Kenyatta called the Chief Justice David Maraga, and the three other judges who supported the verdict, crooks. His successive campaigns have since taken on a similar pose of hard-stance politics and personal attacks both against the Judiciary and Odinga. Kenyatta has repeatedly called his rival a witch doctor, a perennial loser and one full of riddles.
Odinga has too adopted a similar fashion of campaigns and regularly made personal attacks against Kenyatta. The veteran opposition leader, for instance, accused the president of making a televized national address while drunk. He also called Kenyatta a thief who should be languishing in jail for stealing elections.
“It is unfortunate that the campaign messages have turned personal and animosity is getting to a fever pitch among the supporters of both candidates. It is no longer about policies but hate speech and insults which is dangerous as the country goes back to elections. There may be violence at the end of it all,” says Mwandu.
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Hate speech from supporters of Kenyatta and Odinga have spread to social media, where some of them openly insulted and threatened each other.
Analysts say the Supreme Court verdict offers an opportunity to streamline Kenya’s electoral system that has been synonymous with systemic cheating.
“What the ruling did was put temporary brakes on the rollercoaster of impunity that has characterized almost every election in Kenya,” wrote Rasna Warah in a column in Kenya’s largest newspaper, Daily Nation.
“The ruling may not end impunity in Kenya’s electoral processes but it will have a far-reaching psychological impact on the citizens, who have been led to believe that peace is synonymous with justice,” she added.
In 2013, Odinga filed a case in the Supreme Court against Kenyatta’s election but it was thrown out on technicalities – leaving many suspicious over the conduct of the IEBC. Dissatisfied with the court decision, the opposition held a series of demonstrations that forced the disbandment of the commission ahead of this year’s elections.
But, with the radical court action, this time there is hope of laying bare the activities of the IEBC and restore legitimacy to Kenya’s elections.
“If there have been crooks manipulating voting outcomes in Kenya then things may be different going forward because the Supreme Court has proved impunity and blatant disregard of the law is punishable,” says Mweni Matheka, a governance researcher.
Other sovereign institutions, including the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC), the Office of the Auditor-General and the IEBC itself, may want to borrow a leaf from the Supreme Court and assert their independence.
All these institutions have been subject to political pressures, especially when their work went against the whims of the government.
Just after the August 8 polls, Leader of Government Business in Parliament, Aden Duale, declared that the ruling coalition would use its majority in Parliament to oust Auditor-General Edward Ouko whose office has had run-ins with the executive over explosive audit reports that showed theft and misuse of public funds.
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The IEBC has not been spared the heat from both the executive and the opposition, especially after the bungled polls. Both sides have demanded to have a say in the composition of the IEBC team that will manage the repeat polls.
But in separate letters to the ruling Jubilee coalition Secretary-General Raphael Tuju and the opposition National Super Alliance Co-Principal Musalia Mudavadi, IEBC Chairman Wafula Chebukati on September 6 said the commission reserved the right to make changes without being directed by any of the political groups.
“Please note that the commission is an independent constitutional body, which as per Article 249 of the Constitution shall not be subject to direction or control by any person or authority,” Chebukati said in his letter to Tuju.
“It is therefore unacceptable for you to provide a list of staff that you direct us not to consider for the project team.”
The business community looks forward to conclusion of the elections to restore normalcy in the economy. The Kenya National Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KNCCI) estimates that the country’s economy has lost Sh21.3 billion ($210 million) since the Supreme Court ruling, as investors adopted a wait-and-see attitude. &#8211; Written by Allan Akombo

‘There May Be Violence At The End Of It All’

Africa’s leaders, along with everyone else interested in US-Africa relations, have waited eight months for US President Donald Trump’s administration to explain its Africa policy. We aren’t there yet.
But in recent weeks Trump has indicated the level and extent of his interest. And, senior African affairs officials at the State and Defence Departments are at last attempting publicly to outline US goals and objectives toward Africa. This, apparently without much guidance from their president.
Trump’s inaugural address to the UN General Assembly said little about Africa – barely one paragraph <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/09/19/remarks-president-trump-72nd-session-united-nations-general-assembly" target="_blank" rel="noopener">towards the end</a>. One sentence praised African Union and UN-led peacekeeping missions for “invaluable contributions in stabilising conflicts in Africa.” A second praised America, which
<blockquote>continues to lead the world in humanitarian assistance, including famine prevention and relief in South Sudan, Somalia and northern Nigeria and Yemen.</blockquote>
The next day Trump hosted a luncheon for leaders of nine African countries – Cote d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Namibia, Nigeria, Senegal, Uganda, and South Africa. Only his welcoming remarks have been published but they are nearly devoid of <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/09/20/remarks-president-trump-working-lunch-african-leaders" target="_blank" rel="noopener">policy content or guidance</a>. His opening gambit reminded me of a 19th century colonialist hoping to become rich, as he proclaimed:
<blockquote>Africa has tremendous business potential, I have so many friends going to your countries trying to get rich. I congratulate you, they’re spending a lot of money….It’s really become a place they have to go, that they want to go.</blockquote>
Trump called on African companies to invest in the US. Then, shifting to security cooperation, he urged Africans to help defeat Islamist extremists and the threat from North Korea.
The American president proposed no new presidential initiatives for Africa. But, at least, he did not say those launched by predecessors were a waste of money and would be ended. Nor did he mention opposition to foreign assistance generally. He also did not mention his renunciation of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2017/jun/01/donald-trump-paris-climate-agreement-live-news" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Paris Climate Accord</a> and refusal to fund <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/why-trump-seeing-red-about-green-climate-fund-n767351" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Green Climate Fund</a>. Both are crucial for Africa’s adaptation to global warming.
A “US-Africa Partnerships” conference at the <a href="https://www.sfcg.org/events-schedule/2016-09-13/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US Institute for Peace</a> in Washington in mid-September provided additional clues to how this administration will conduct Africa policy.
Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Tom Shannon, offered the first high level <a href="https://www.state.gov/plus/rem/2017/274073.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">official statement on Africa</a>. Shannon, a highly accomplished Foreign Service officer, emphasised policy continuity. But, he implicitly affirmed Trump’s apparent desire for minimal engagement in Africa.
Shannon and Acting Assistant Secretary Donald Yamamoto at a later session, stressed the <a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/201709180753.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">four main pillars</a> that have framed Africa policy for many years, would remain. These are:
<ul>
<li>peace and security;</li>
<li>counterterrorism;</li>
<li>economic trade, investment and development; and,</li>
<li>democracy and good governance.</li>
</ul>
They endorsed previous presidential initiatives, including specific references to former US President Barack Obama’s <a href="https://www.feedthefuture.gov/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Feed the Future</a>, <a href="https://www.usaid.gov/powerafrica/aboutus" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Power Africa</a> and the Young African <a href="https://yali.state.gov/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Leaders Initiative</a>. Their continuation, and at what levels, will depend on budget decisions. Trump’s initial recommendations, endorsed by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, call for crippling cuts.
So far, the only new social development program that Trump has endorsed is the World Bank’s global Women Entrepreneurs <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/women-entrepreneurs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Finance Initiative</a>, championed by his daughter Ivanka. The US has donated $50 million toward its global start-up budget of <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/07/08/ivanka-trump-and-40-million-for-women-entrepreneurs-nice-idea-but-trivially-unimportant/#757bef521af2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$315 million</a>. As Yamamoto noted at the September meeting, Africa could benefit from this initiative.
Trump will be less likely to challenge US military’s commitments in Africa. With this in mind I paid close attention to the <a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/201709140684.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">address</a> by General Thomas Waldhauser, Commander of the US Africa Command (Africom) at the September 13 meeting. He set out Africom’s current engagements in Libya and Somalia, where he said the mission was to support locally engineered political solutions.
Critics of America’s many previous failed interventions in these two countries and elsewhere, will rightly remain sceptical.
The second part of his address dealt more broadly with Africom’s capacity building assistance, nationally and regionally. He said Africom only operates where
<blockquote>US and partner nation strategic objectives are compatible and aligned and, second, the operations are conducted primarily by partner nation forces with the US in a supporting role.</blockquote>
Africom, he said, conducts “some 3,500 exercises, programs and engagements” annually, with “5-to-6,000 US service members working on the continent every day.”
Waldenhauser ended his address with a surprisingly specific and positive view on China’s role in Africa. He praised China’s assistance to building much needed infrastructure throughout Africa and for the rapid growth in China-Africa trade which exceeded $300 billion in 2016.
On security issues, he commended Chinese President Xi Jinping’s pledge of <a href="http://uhuruspirit.org/news/?x=8706#.WdIYnVuCw9c" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$100 million</a> to the AU and for supporting UN peacekeeping missions with 8,000 police officers. He then referred to the construction of China’s first overseas military base, which is near the US base in Djibouti, as creating “opportunities found nowhere else in the world,” relating that:
<blockquote>China assigned the first soldiers to this base and expressed interest in conducting amphibious training between Chinese and US Marines. Across the continent, we have shared interests in African stability. We see many areas where we can cooperate with the Chinese military. For example, we both support UN peacekeeping missions and training with African defence forces. The fact that we have mutual interests in Africa means that we can and should cooperate.</blockquote>
To emphasise the importance of this comment he quoted Secretary of Defence James Mattis when he pointed out earlier this year:
<blockquote>Our two countries can and do cooperate for mutual benefit. And we will pledge to work closely with China where we share common cause.</blockquote>
But China-US security cooperation in Africa can’t succeed without the inclusion of African governments as equal partners in this “common cause”.
Such “win-win-win” experiments in mutual confidence building would not only benefit Africans, but could also serve as positive examples for other regions and could improve US-China relations globally. In the absence of a coherent and compelling US – Africa policy, this at least is one positive development that merits our attention. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-j-stremlau-182813" target="_blank" rel="author noopener">John J Stremlau</a>, 2017 Bradlow Fellow at SA Institute of International Affairs,Visiting Professor of International Relations, University of the Witwatersrand
Originally published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>
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Trump’s Africa policy is still incoherent, but key signals are emerging

While Nelson Mandela, Oliver Tambo, and Desmond Tutu are rightly venerated for their role in opposing and ending white minority rule in South Africa, another leader of the liberation years has been remarkably overlooked: Bantu Steven Biko, who led the enormously influential <a href="http://disa.ukzn.ac.za/sites/default/files/pdf_files/sanov75.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Black Consciousness Movement</a>. Four decades after his death in police custody on September 12 1977, he deserves to be recognised as one of the towering heroes of the anti-apartheid struggle.
Black Consciousness re-energised black opposition to apartheid and helped draw the world’s attention to the brutality of South Africa’s white minority rule. It began after the <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/topic/sharpeville-massacre-21-march-1960" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sharpeville Massacre</a> in 1960, when established liberation movements such as the African National Congress (ANC) and the Pan Africanist Congress (PAC) were banned by the South African government and forced into exile. With the organised opposition apparently moribund, the South African state presided over an economic boom for the white minority and created the conditions for apartheid’s so-called <a href="http://www.sadet.co.za/road_democracy_vol1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">golden age</a>.
In 1969, with overt political activism and leadership largely dormant, Black Consciousness emerged from the South African Students’ Organisation to fill the void. Biko advocated that black liberation would only follow once psychological liberation from the internalised acceptance of racial oppression was achieved, <a href="http://www.sbf.org.za/home/index.php/steve-biko-quotes/">arguing</a> that “the most potent weapon in the hands of the oppressor is the mind of the oppressed”.
At its heart, Black Consciousness demanded pride, self-assertion, and self-confidence. Biko’s idea was that this would in turn stimulate a “revolution of the mind”, allowing oppressed peoples to overcome the racial inferiority <a href="http://disa.ukzn.ac.za/sites/default/files/pdf_files/sasep71.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">and fear</a> propagated by white racism so they could appreciate that they were not just “appendages to the white society”. This relatively simple idea radically changed perceptions of the struggle. It helped instill a new cultural and psychological outlook among the black population, and thereby renewed the challenge to the apartheid system.
Biko turned ideas into a potent new weapon, and the white minority state was slow to appreciate that the spread of ideas could not be contained by physical force alone. As a consequence, Biko was given a banning order in 1973, which confined him to King William’s Town in the Eastern Cape, and prevented him from speaking in public.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/woman/2016/12/01/steve-biko-still-alive/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">If Steve Biko Were Still Alive&#8230;</a>
In fact, as <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/2253092.stm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nelson Mandela</a> put it, the apartheid state was so fearful of Biko’s influence that “they had to kill him to prolong the life of apartheid”.
In 1977, Biko was killed in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yG5Zjt2SE28" target="_blank" rel="noopener">police custody</a> after brutal interrogation and torture. Despite a subsequent political <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1977/11/18/lawyer-alleges-coverup-on-biko-death/ee85b03e-b0de-4a17-ba4c-d68e0d0f6634/?utm_term=.c578f80a0310" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cover up</a>, the circumstances of his death were exposed, laying bare the violence of the apartheid state. His death led to greater international pressure against white minority rule, particularly via the global <a href="http://www.aamarchives.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Anti-Apartheid Movement</a> and influential people such as white journalist and activist <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2001/08/20/world/donald-woods-67-editor-and-apartheid-foe.html?mcubz=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Donald Woods</a>, whose friendship with Biko was the subject of the 1987 film <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iq4VjE0_AVQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cry Freedom</a>.
<h2>Squeezed out</h2>
So why hasn’t Black Consciousness left as deep an institutional footprint as the ANC and its like? Part of the answer is that as a movement, it was relatively weak organisationally.
Beyond its activists’ community projects, Black Consciousness was never an effective or broad-based organisation; with most of its leaders imprisoned or banned by the mid-1970s, it was predominantly an intellectual movement confined to South Africa’s urban areas. As newly politicised South Africans variously joined and formed alternative organisations, it fragmented and began to lose influence. By 1977, it was deemed illegal under the <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/apartheid-government-declares-19-organisations-unlawful" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Internal Security Act</a>, and Biko’s murder robbed it of its intellectual and political leader.
But the movement was long outlived by its ideology. Ideas are very difficult to extinguish, and they don’t necessarily need an institutional home to flourish. The “revolutionary consciousness” Biko called for enabled people to appreciate their subjugation, and to take action. It inspired the children of Soweto to protest against the imposition of Afrikaans in schools in 1976, resulting in <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/topic/june-16-soweto-youth-uprising" target="_blank" rel="noopener">an uprising</a> that caught the world’s attention and put the regime under more pressure than ever.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2012/08/01/the-struggle-continues/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Struggle Continues</a>
In fact, Black Consciousness was a more powerful catalyst than the established liberation movements. It “freed” minds, revived and mobilised political opposition, and re-energised the declining ANC as militant young activists joined the exiled armed struggle.
Yet since the end of apartheid in 1994, the governing ANC has worked hard to <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2017-07-20-the-anc-has-captured-the-countrys-history/#.WZ2eGD6GOpo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">monopolise</a> the history of liberation. A plethora of groups including Black Consciousness, the <a href="http://www.saha.org.za/udf/origins.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">United Democratic Front</a>, the <a href="http://newafricanmagazine.com/sobukwes-unremembering/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PAC</a>, and student organisations were all involved in the anti-apartheid struggle, yet the ANC has worked to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/dec/31/anc-centenary-airbrushing-history" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disregard</a> the efforts of alternative actors. To fully recognise the power and influence of Biko’s ideas would disrupt the ANC’s preferred version of history.
So even though Biko became a martyr for the anti-apartheid struggle in his day, he is too often left out of the story. The same goes for other figures who helped topple the system, especially those who worked outside the ANC. It’s long past time to properly celebrate these other elements of the struggle – of whom Steve Biko was surely among the strongest. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/matthew-graham-405047" target="_blank" rel="author noopener">Matthew Graham</a>, Lecturer in History, University of Dundee
Originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>
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Why is Steve Biko’s legacy often overlooked?

The Kenyan Supreme Court has found that the August 8 presidential election result is invalid. It blames the electoral commission, not the declared winner, Uhuru Kenyatta. Kenya’s leading newspaper praises the decision as a <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/oped/Editorial/Supreme-Court-ruling-has-restored-rule-of-law-/440804-4079912-3cupekz/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">step towards the rule of law</a>, but I am less sure about what this means for the ability of the political establishment to stick to the terms of the country’s constitution.
The Supreme Court has given the country 60 days to hold fresh elections. The time period is in accordance with section 140 (3) of the <a href="http://www.kenyalaw.org/lex/actview.xql?actid=Const2010" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Constitution</a>, but the court failed to tell the public exactly what the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission <a href="https://www.iebc.or.ke/">(IEBC)</a> had done wrong. This leaves Kenya with a compromised commission rerunning an election.
Chief Justice David Maraga <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLEQ72t2czs&amp;t=1216s" target="_blank" rel="noopener">noted that</a> the court had previously failed to provide a full judgment on the 2013 elections and this had not been received well. He then did exactly the same. Of course, the court had to provide a judgment on the opposition’s petition within 14 days, as stipulated by the Constitution. This is the period before the president-elect is inaugurated. The court would have sparked a constitutional crisis if it had not made any decision.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/06/15/will-decide-kenyan-election-dose-faith-tribe-hard-cash/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">What Will Decide The Kenyan Election? A Dose Of Faith, Tribe And Hard Cash</a>
But by not explaining how the IEBC has failed, the court has created a problem. It’s impossible to organize the next election and reform the commission in the time given.
<h2>Time pressure</h2>
The court gave itself up to 21 more days to deliver its full judgment. This would leave the country with only 39 days before the fresh election. Already, opposition leader Raila Odinga has <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001253339/raila-declares-fresh-war-on-iebc-lambasts-international-community" target="_blank" rel="noopener">declared</a> that his coalition will refuse to participate in presidential elections under the current leadership of the IEBC.
But, as a newspaper commentator <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001253324/why-it-s-not-feasible-to-replace-iebc-commissioners" target="_blank" rel="noopener">observes</a>, it’s just not feasible to remove IEBC commissioners without a tribunal, which is then reviewed by parliament. Complicating matters further, three citizens have filed a <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001253334/three-kenyans-want-iebc-commissioners-barred-from-polls" target="_blank" rel="noopener">separate petition</a> to ask the courts to remove certain IEBC officials over their wrongdoing.
Even once the full judgment is handed down within 21 days of the ruling, it probably won’t indicate criminality at the level of individuals. The Supreme Court was asked only to determine the validity of the election overall. Its full judgment can indicate how the process of the election must be improved.
The election was judged to be void because the electoral commission was at fault. This suggests it must change its procedures – and perhaps its personnel – if better elections are to take place. A new election must avoid the errors of the previous one.
Political scholar Gabrielle Lynch <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/Key-lessons-for-election-team-as-Kenyans-return-to-ballot-/440808-4079934-roelpv/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">explains</a> some of the corrections that have to be made. These include the process for transmitting results, the use of security forces and the uneven use of state resources.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/08/28/election-unlikely-herald-change-angolans-clamouring/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Election unlikely to herald the change Angolans have been clamouring for</a>
Few of these suggested corrections will be feasible within the allotted timeframe.
<h2>Serious problems</h2>
Indeed, the problems are serious. Months before the election was held, the courts <a href="http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2017/08/30/kenya-the-election-and-the-cover-up/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ordered</a> the IEBC to stop printing ballot papers, because of <a href="http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/Dispute-ballot-printing-tender-Kenyan-election/2558-3974504-2no9fv/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">claims</a> that the Dubai-based firm Ghurair held too many links to Kenyatta.
The claim against Ghurair was <a href="https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/07/20/nasa-loses-cross-appeal-on-uhuru-links-to-al-ghurair_c1600686" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dismissed</a> due to insufficient evidence. But part of the IEBC’s successful defence against the court order was the time pressure of having to hold an election in a few months’ time. If time pressure was a valid reason then, why would it not be now? Why would an even more rushed election be credible?
The <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/03/africa/kenya-election-official-chris-msando/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">murder</a> of the IEBC’s IT manager, Chris Msando, will now be under even closer scrutiny by the media. But even if the crime was directly related to the muddled tallying of votes, there isn’t time before the rerun to find individuals guilty. It is highly unlikely the full Supreme Court judgment will touch upon this tense topic. And that further reduces the credibility of the current IEBC.
<h2>Credibility concerns</h2>
The wider concerns with the IEBC date <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Shadow-Kenyan-Democracy-Widespread-Expectations/dp/147246768X" target="_blank" rel="noopener">back to</a> the “Chickengate” scandal. A UK court found a UK firm had <a href="http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/How-UK-sleuths-unearthed-Kenya-scandal/-/539546/2527142/-/12a1fcrz/-/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bribed</a> the IEBC (then the Interim Independent Electoral Commission) to get the contract to print ballot papers for the 2010 Kenyan constitutional referendum.
The UK co-conspirators were <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-sussex-31444228" target="_blank" rel="noopener">found guilty</a>. But no-one from the Kenyan side was put behind bars by Kenyan courts. This created mistrust of the IEBC leaders. The current crisis will revive past anxieties like these, but leave no time for meaningful reform.
In Kenyan elections, local witnesses must sign the official forms to say the local tally is accurate. Central tallying organized electronically must then match with these local forms. The election is considered free and fair if this is done properly. The Supreme Court has ruled that both the IEBC as a whole and its chairperson, Wafula Chebukati, are responsible for the failure on 8 August.
Chebukati has <a href="http://nairobinews.nation.co.ke/news/chebukati-storm-not-quitting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">refused to stand down</a>. His response doesn’t boost public confidence in the institution. If the public is to trust the rerun, he must go.
<h2>Asking for more time</h2>
The IEBC should then petition the Supreme Court to give it more time.
It was done before, when the 2013 election was <a href="http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/oped/comment/Unrealistic-timelines-blame-for-Kenya-electoral-flaws/434750-3798034-ecoaogz/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">delayed</a> because of the difficulty of implementing aspects of the new Constitution.
Section 86 of the Constitution requires the IEBC to collate the results of an election openly and accurately. At present, it can’t meet this requirement because it does not know what it must do differently from before. The IEBC should therefore depend on Section 86 when it asks the Supreme Court for more time. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dominic-burbidge-405209" target="_blank" rel="author noopener">Dominic Burbidge</a>, Postdoctoral Researcher, Faculty of Law, University of Oxford
Originally published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>
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Kenya’s Supreme Court has given an impossible deadline for the repeat election

On 23 August Angolans went to the polls to elect a new parliament, and for the first time in the lives of a great majority of the population, a new president. José Eduardo dos Santos, who ruled the country for 38 years, did not run this time as his party’s top candidate.
Instead, the MPLA, the Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola (Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola) fielded Defence Minister, <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/who-is-angolas-next-president-joao-lourenco/a-40218458" target="_blank" rel="noopener">João Lourenço</a>, as its presidential candidate. So the mais velho (old man) has <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/1505928.stm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">finally</a> left. This in itself is a significant moment, considering how difficult it appears for <a href="https://qz.com/1059007/angola-election-jose-eduardo-dos-santos-will-step-down-as-angola-elects-its-first-new-leader-in-38-years/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">some African leaders</a> to relinquish power.
Despite this, it’s likely that the elections will bring more of the same, and only slow and gradual improvements — if at all — of <a href="https://www.cmi.no/news/1671-angola-from-boom-to-bust-to-breaking-point" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the lives of most Angolans</a>. Lourenço is very much a product of the system. He has the backing of the party and the armed forces, which is an improvement over Dos Santos’ previous intended successor, (former) vice-president, <a href="https://www.africa-confidential.com/whos-who-profile/id/3227/page/3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Manuel Vicente</a>.
Vicente was pushed through against the party’s will as Dos Santos’ running mate in the 2012 elections. He had no “liberation credentials”, and is <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-38996879" target="_blank" rel="noopener">under investigation</a> for the corruption of a magistrate in Portugal. It would also appear that, for now, any plans for <a href="https://www.makaangola.org/2013/07/dos-santos%c2%92-son-shapes-his-own-government/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dynastic succession</a> are off the table.
Some Angolan commentators have called Lourenço “dull”, and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w172vgh8cd1mg4v%22" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“not previously known for his intellectual capacities</a>. But, compared to <a href="https://www.makaangola.org/2016/10/incompetence-and-corruption-sinks-angolas-development-bank/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">some</a> of his MPLA comrades, he has a reputation of relative probity. Nevertheless he is unlikely to be willing – or able – to <a href="https://www.voaportugues.com/a/cabinda-padre-congo-duvida-que-eleicoes-tragam-mudancas/3996126.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">change</a> the current political economic dispensation.
<h2>Corruption</h2>
Lourenço campaigned under the motto &#8220;<a href="http://www.angop.ao/angola/pt_pt/noticias/politica/2016/11/50/Melhorar-que-esta-bem-corrigir-que-esta-mal-novo-lema-estrategico-MPLA,62faa988-79c5-4357-9c58-2716650c8f23.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">improve what is good, correct what is bad</a>&#8221; and vowed to tackle corruption.
Legal frameworks to combat corruption already exist, such as the 2010 <a href="http://www.angop.ao/angola/pt_pt/noticias/politica/2011/10/46/Lei-Probidade-Publica-vem-reforcar-mecanismos-combate-corrupcao,72965749-90f9-48c7-9eff-1a028c953b97.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">law on public probity</a> and anti-money laundering <a href="http://cdn2.portalangop.co.ao/angola/en_us/noticias/economia/2016/0/2/Angola-BNA-implements-measures-prevent-money-laundering,93c706db-6098-497d-87ea-fd84ae765db9.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">measures</a> in the banking sector. But despite repeated high-level declarations of a &#8220;zero tolerance” policy, Dos Santos, his family and his close entourage remain the <a href="http://africanarguments.org/2017/08/14/angola-elections-ruling-family-dos-santos-worth-billions-what-happens-when-dad-steps-down/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prime beneficiaries</a> of the misappropriation of public funds. This tendency has become even more marked in the past three years, with the president’s family openly multiplying their private gains from publicly funded investments. The <a href="https://southernafrican.news/2016/11/18/isabel-dos-santos-defends-appointment-to-sonangol/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">appointment</a> of Dos Santos’ daughter, Isabel dos Santos, at the head of state oil company Sonangol is the most glaring example of this.
Such “eating of commissions” in all productive sectors of the economy would have to be tackled to address the profound <a href="http://africasacountry.com/2016/03/the-economic-crises-in-angola/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">economic, political</a> and <a href="http://www.africanews.com/2016/05/16/angola-s-health-crisis-deepens-after-slump-in-oil-causes-budget-cuts/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">social</a> crisis the country has faced since the fall of world oil prices in late 2014.
But it’s doubtful Lourenço will be able to institute such a change, especially as Dos Santos has “locked in” by decree his latest appointments. These include the heads of the army and state security forces, as well as those of his children Isabel and José Filomeno ‘<a href="http://expresso.sapo.pt/internacional/2016-07-17-O-destino-de-Zenu" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zénú</a>’ dos Santos, at the helm of Sonangol and the Sovereign Wealth Fund.
Dos Santos has granted himself and his entourage <a href="https://www.makaangola.org/2017/06/lifelong-immunity-from-prosecution-for-the-president/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lifelong immunity</a> from prosecution and remains president of the MPLA. This ensures that whoever succeeds him is likely to depend on him and his family economically, and is unlikely to go after the family’s ill-gotten gains.
<h2>Election outcome</h2>
Although election day was peaceful and orderly, there was reportedly widespread abstention (20%) and targeted voter disenfranchisement. Some voters turned up at polling stations only to hear they had been registered at a different place, often kilometres away. On 25 August the nominally independent National Electoral Commission <a href="http://www.dw.com/pt-002/cne-atualiza-resultados-mpla-vence-elei%C3%A7%C3%B5es-em-angola-com-617/a-40238976" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced “provisional” results</a> with the MPLA as the winner with 61% of the vote, down from 72% in 2012 and 81% in 2008.
Parallel counting from the voting stations, by contrast, shows opposition parties winning in many urban areas. This tallies with some pre-election opinion polls and the general public mood. In a truly open contest — which it <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03057070.2010.507572" target="_blank" rel="noopener">was</a> <a href="https://www.makaangola.org/2017/08/a-teoria-da-fraude-eleitoral-em-angola/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">not</a> — the MPLA would probably have lost Luanda and some provincial capitals, even if at national level it would likely still have come out on top.
The results are thus likely to be fiercely <a href="http://www.dw.com/pt-002/angola-t%C3%A9cnicos-da-oposi%C3%A7%C3%A3o-contestam-apuramento-da-cne/a-40232826" target="_blank" rel="noopener">contested</a>, though given the politicisation of the judiciary and the electoral organs, the MPLA is likely to emerge as the winner in the end, albeit with a significantly reduced majority.
It remains to be seen whether the end of dos Santos’ rule will also mean turning the page on the <a href="http://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/?GCOI=80140100492980" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sistema dos Santos (System dos Santos)</a>, and a change in the ways in which the Angolan political economy works. For the MPLA, losing key urban districts, and probably in a free contest only just scraping past the 50% mark nationwide was something hitherto unthinkable, especially for the party’s old guard who still think the MPLA has a destiny to lead Angola for the coming 25 years. Perhaps this poor showing might prove a wake-up call and strengthen reformist tendencies within the party, and provide some incentive to start a constructive dialogue with the opposition.
But the regime has so far been remarkably resilient to crises. The <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03057070.2013.798541?src=recsys&amp;journalCode=cjss20" target="_blank" rel="noopener">political awakening</a> of a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/13/angola-repression-generates-more-dissent-politics-mpla" target="_blank" rel="noopener">growing number</a> of Angolans over the past years has <a href="https://www.voaportugues.com/a/abel-chivukuvuku-pica-candidato-mpla-novo-pedido-debate/3964756.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">strengthened</a> <a href="http://www.angonoticias.com/Artigos/item/55128/eleicoes-2017-samakuva-reitera-governo-inclusivo-e-participativo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">opposition parties</a> in their <a href="http://www.africanews.com/2016/02/29/angola-opposition-kicks-against-management-of-yellow-fever-epidemic//" target="_blank" rel="noopener">positions</a>, yet it will require continued <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2016/02/angola-15-activist-your-support-got-us-out-of-prison/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">pressure</a> and <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/a-trial-in-angola-increasingly-seen-as-a-farce/a-19131740" target="_blank" rel="noopener">activism</a>, and more than a change of the figurehead at the top, to fundamentally reorder Angola’s social, political, and economic relations — which is what Angolans are increasingly <a href="https://qz.com/538237/ordinary-angolans-are-asking-where-did-all-the-oil-riches-go/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">clamouring</a> for. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jon-schubert-402560" target="_blank" rel="author noopener">Jon Schubert</a>, Senior research fellow: Civil War and State Formation, Global Studies Institute, Université de Genève
Originally published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>
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Election unlikely to herald the change Angolans have been clamouring for

Five years ago this week 44 people were killed in the course of an industrial dispute at a platinum mine in South Africa’s North West Province owned by Lonmin. It became known as the <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/marikana-massacre-16-august-2012" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Marikana massacre</a>.
For many observers, Marikana was a turning point in the presidency of Jacob Zuma – who came to power in 2009 – and in the history of democratic South Africa. Even more so, it gave an early indication of the abuse of state power that’s been the hallmark of the Zuma government.
Thirty-four miners were shot dead by members of the South African Police Service in a single day, <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/marikana-massacre-16-august-2012" target="_blank" rel="noopener">16 August 2012</a>. Seventeen were gunned down by heavily armed members of police tactical response teams as they left the <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03057070.2016.1223477?scroll=top&amp;needAccess=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">small hill (or koppie)</a> they’d been occupying. Others died at the hands of the police in the course of a brutal mopping up operation that followed.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2017/08/16/marikana-promise-kept-tears-grief/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Marikana: A Promise Kept Through Tears Of Grief</a>
Five years on, and two years after the official <a href="http://www.marikanacomm.org.za/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Farlam Commission of Inquiry</a> into the Marikana tragedy, <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2017/08/south-africa-five-years-on-marikana-victims-still-wait-for-justice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">no-one has been held to account</a>. Ministers have moved to new portfolios, police commanders have retired on ample pensions, or been <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/crime-courts/riah-phiyega-leaves-the-police-today-glad-she-ran-the-course-9708513" target="_blank" rel="noopener">replaced </a> in a blaze of litigation.
<h2>Lack of accountability</h2>
Only last week Zuma survived a vote of no confidence in parliament in the wake of a series of scandals. These included compelling evidence that he and his government are in thrall to the influential <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2016-03-24-00-the-gupta-owned-state-enterprises" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gupta family</a>.
Zuma’s reputation as the <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2017-08-08-motion-of-no-confidence-teflon-zuma-survives-but-vote-closer-than-expected/#.WZK6fraQy70" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“Teflon President”</a> – able to shrug off charges of everything from bribery to rape and allowing the South African state to be <a href="http://pari.org.za/betrayal-promise-report/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“captured” by the Guptas and their acolytes</a> – dates back well beyond 2012. But, when it comes to Marikana, Zuma is not the only one with non-stick credentials.
In March this year, the country’s <a href="https://nationalgovernment.co.za/units/view/20/Department-Independent-Police-Investigative-Directorate-IPID" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Independent Police Investigative Directorate</a>, the police oversight body, announced that it had identified <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/72-cops-to-be-charged-over-marikana-20170319-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">72 police officers to face charges</a>. These ranged from murder to perjury and defeating the ends of justice. Since then, no further action has been taken.
Important though this is, the responsibility for the massacre doesn’t stop at those who pulled the triggers. At the outset of the Farlam Commission’s public hearings, <a href="http://www.incwajana.com/dali-mpofu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dali Mpofu</a>, counsel for the miners injured at Marikana, blamed many of the deaths on <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2014-07-30-toxic-lonmin-police-collusion-blamed-for-marikana-massacre" target="_blank" rel="noopener">‘toxic collusion’</a>between the police and the mining company Lonmin.
As the inquiry progressed, Mpofu and others made strenuous efforts to blame Cyril Ramaphosa, deputy president of South Africa for the bloody denouement of 16 August. At the time Ramaphosa was a shareholder and non-executive director of Lonmin as well as a member of the ruling <a href="http://www.anc.org.za/officials/national-executive-committee-0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ANC’s National Executive Committee</a>.
The commission itself uncovered evidence that collusion went some way beyond the police commanders and Lonmin executives on the ground. At a special briefing two days before the massacre the police commissioner for the North West province, Lieutenant General Miriam Mbombo, told a senior Lonmin executive that police were planning to move in to “kill” the strikers’ protest.
Mbombo revealed that she was acutely aware of the influence wielded by Ramaphosa. She also admitted being alive to the risk of allowing Julius Malema, who had been expelled as leader of the ANC’s Youth League, to make political capital out of the dispute.
Based on the transcript of this briefing, the Commission found that both Mbombo and the then National Commissioner of police, General Riah Phiyega, were complicit in raising political factors in their discussions about <a href="http://www.gov.za/sites/www.gov.za/files/marikana-report-1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">policing in Marikana</a>. It found these discussions to be “inappropriate” and inconsistent with the constitutional requirement that policing should be conducted in an impartial and unbiased manner.
The Commission also determined that the fatal decision to forcibly remove the striking miners from the koppie they were occupying was taken by Mbombo and not by tactical commanders with expertise in public order policing. It was then endorsed at an extraordinary session of the South African Police Service’s national management forum late on 15 August.
The commission did not find a direct link between anyone in political authority having ordered the police to take action. It did, however, conclude that the decision to remove the strikers from the koppie was at least partly the consequence of the senior police officials feeling the need to act and to be seen to act.
This idea that the police commanders at Marikana did not need to be told what to do, or how to do it, is consistent with the social theorist Steven Lukes’ three-dimensional view of power and the ability of the powerful to secure the compliance of those they dominate without either making decisions or giving orders. The generals knew what had to be done to end a costly and politically damaging protest. They knew that it had to be done without further delay, and, if necessary, with the use of force. The result, as we now know, was the loss of 34 lives.
The way in which power, subtly but with far reaching consequences, was used at Marikana may also tell us something about how it’s used in contemporary South Africa more generally to control, perhaps even to capture, not just the police but other state institutions far beyond the criminal justice system. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bill-dixon-137304" rel="author">Bill Dixon, </a>Professor of Criminology, University of Nottingham
Originally published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>
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The Misery Commission

What the lack of accountability for Marikana says about Zuma’s government

Kenya’s 2017 polls will be remembered as the election of minor gains and confounding contradictions.
In the run up to polling, public discontent appeared to have been largely driven by the unprecedented sophistication in <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000181261/corruption-tribalism-conspire-to-hold-kenya-to-ransom" target="_blank" rel="noopener">graft</a> and <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Tribalism-Ethnicity-NCIC-Francis-ole-Kaparo/1064-2661730-6enm4cz/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tribalism</a> in the President Uhuru Kenyatta’s government.
But both Kenyatta and opposition candidate Raila Odinga demonstrated a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/08/08/who-are-the-two-men-competing-to-be-president-of-kenya/?utm_term=.12bf77ed5942" target="_blank" rel="noopener">weak</a> <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2000030197/raila-s-family-was-involved-in-maize-scandal-claim-us-cables" target="_blank" rel="noopener">commitment</a> to tackling corruption. In fact, neither of them articulated a bold agenda to <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Nasa-launches-manifesto/1064-3989916-fb7nmtz/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">roll back</a> <a href="http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/06/26/uhuruto-launch-jubilee-manifesto-ahead-of-august-poll_c1586475" target="_blank" rel="noopener">graft</a>.
As the grand finale of a <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/kenya-elections-kenya-president-uhuru-kenyatta-raila-odinga-647526" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dynastic struggle</a> between the Odinga and Kenyatta families, both candidates boldly manipulated the ethnic formula while their supporters once again demonstrated a stubborn fixation with traditional voting patterns. This is reflected in the <a href="http://results.ke.nation.news/kenya/president.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">results </a>from the presidential candidates’ ethnic strongholds.
Despite these failings, the Kenyan people handed Kenyatta a comfortable second term.
On top of this, some of the blunders and disturbing <a href="https://www.hrw.org/blog-feed/kenya-elections-2017" target="_blank" rel="noopener">trends</a> witnessed in previous elections were repeated. These included social media <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-options-for-kenya-as-an-impending-election-fuels-fear-of-hate-speech-71913" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hate speech</a>; a high-profile <a href="http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/08/04/probe-msando-murder-quickly-poll-observers_c1609972" target="_blank" rel="noopener">murder</a>; <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Kenya-presidential-election-results-2017/1056-4050770-format-xhtml-3s06wy/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poor communication</a> from the electoral commission when it came to relaying results; inadequate voter education; and <a href="http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/08/09/video-raila-rejects-provisional-results-terms-them-fraudulent-fake_c1613061" target="_blank" rel="noopener">inflammatory statements</a> by leading figures when provisional election results were released.
<h2>Mixed results</h2>
At the national level, Kenyans seem to have repeated a monotonous script that suggests a resistance to learning from past mistakes.
At the micro level, the results were mixed, delivering both positive and negative outcomes. Promising candidates such as social-justice activist Boniface Mwangi, who campaigned on a platform of ethics and integrity, <a href="http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/08/09/boniface-mwangi-concedes-after-jaguar-takes-lead-in-starehe_c1613123" target="_blank" rel="noopener">failed</a> to make the cut. But others, like Anne Waiguru, a former cabinet secretary implicated in <a href="http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2017/04/waiguru-routs-governor-ndathi-kirinyaga-jubilee-primary/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">corruption</a> and Professor Anyang Nyong’o, whose nomination was <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Tribunal-cancels-Anyang--Nyong-o-poll-victory/1064-3911590-12v5ncu/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">contested</a> in the primaries, pulled through.
On the positive side, three women made forays into <a href="http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/08/09/kenyas-first-women-governors-ngilu-laboso-waiguru-flying-high-after_c1613173" target="_blank" rel="noopener">governorships</a> thus paving the way for more women to join the fray in future. And in some regions like Eastern Province, people resisted major political party dominance by re-electing <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001250828/governor-mutua-re-elected-as-wavinya-ndeti-vows-to-challenge-results" target="_blank" rel="noopener">individuals</a> from minor parties, which is laudable.
At the same time, some regions such as Rift Valley province maintained their strong Jubilee Party leanings as seen in the punitive ouster of <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001250744/early-results-show-ruto-trailing-laboso-in-bomet-county" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Isaac Ruto</a> who ditched the Jubilee Party for his own Chama cha Mashinani.
These dynamics are suggestive of a palpable tension between progress and the status quo. It remains to be seen which will prevail.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/06/15/will-decide-kenyan-election-dose-faith-tribe-hard-cash/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">What Will Decide The Kenyan Election? A Dose OF Faith, Tribe And Hard Cash</a>
<h2>Only one winner</h2>
Ultimately, there could only be one winner between the two presidential choices. President Kenyatta was poised to clinch a <a href="https://theconversation.com/kenyatta-or-odinga-why-dynastic-politics-is-alive-and-well-in-kenya-80732" target="_blank" rel="noopener">second term</a> for obvious reasons. He is highly personable and seems to enjoy strong political chemistry with his supporters. He also boasts strong social media credentials – he skipped this year’s presidential debate, opting instead to directly engage his supporters on Facebook.
With the incumbency in his favour, he campaigned on the platform of his first term <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Uhuru-says-Jubilee-track-record-good-for-second-term/1064-4041342-h77pbs/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">track record</a> and projected the confidence to finish the job.
But there was also something more sinister that played in his favour. He has perfected the art of <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/raila-links-uhuru-family-to-alleged-loss-at-health-ministry/1056-3433818-mklw4iz/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">insulating himself</a> from the <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Uhuru-sister-firm-listed-in-disadvantaged-group/1056-3434656-5st40t/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">controversies</a> that have rocked his government. His deputy, William Ruto has been the shock absorber that has taken the flak over <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Ruto-fights-back-as-graft-fells-more-allies/1064-3095364-aavdffz/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">alleged links</a> to various corruption scandals and political machinations.
The fact that Kenyatta has not been directly linked to corruption made him appear more trustworthy. Even though he has been sluggish in acting on graft and inefficiency, some of the minor cabinet shake-ups he stimulated seemed to have paid off.
Examples include Joseph ole Lenku’s <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000143316/interior-cabinet-secretary-joseph-ole-lenku-fired-as-inspector-of-police-david-kimaiyo-resigns" target="_blank" rel="noopener">exit</a> as cabinet secretary for interior and the <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000183163/devolution-and-planning-cs-anne-waiguru-finally-bows-to-pressure-and-resigns" target="_blank" rel="noopener">resignation</a> of the former devolution cabinet secretary, Anne Waiguru, to pave way for corruption investigations.
These actions helped him retain his 2013 strongholds while giving the impression that he can also act tough.
On top of this, his loyalty to his deputy who has often been portrayed as the <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001230917/the-incredible-rise-of-dp-william-ruto" target="_blank" rel="noopener">corrupt villain</a>, enabled him retain a sizeable chunk of Ruto’s <a href="http://results.ke.nation.news/kenya/president.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">backyard</a> – the Rift Valley voting bloc.
After securing a comfortable win, Kenyatta is no longer a political hostage who is constrained by the appeasement of first term allies. Does this mean that he’ll develop a firm hand to tackle some of the issues that have dogged his government? If he does, he might just turn out to be the political pill that the doctor ordered for Kenyans.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/investment-guide/2016/10/01/kenya-crossroads-caps/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kenya At A Crossroads With Caps</a>
<h2>End of an era</h2>
Raila Odinga, Kenya’s veteran political stalwart, has a strong track record as a champion for political reforms, and is <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/raila-odinga-olitics-kenya/1056-3945030-3vnfthz/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">loved and disliked</a> in equal measure. This is the fourth time he has vied for the presidency and lost even though questions persist over the disputed <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Raila-won-2007-elections--says-Macharia/1064-3506012-q12oic/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2007</a> and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/30/world/africa/voting-irregularities-in-kenya-election-are-confirmed.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2013</a> election results.
Odinga lost the 2017 elections for two reasons. Some voters buckled under the weight of “Raila fatigue” and <a href="https://www.tuko.co.ke/157874-raila-odinga-supporters-are-tired-of-voting-for-him-wetangula-video.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">accompanying</a> <a href="http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2016/07/23/wetangula-rubbishes-railas-2017-election-bid_c1391000" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disillusionment</a>. Both can be partly attributed to the fact that he has lost at every shot he’s made at the presidency.
Odinga <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Uhuru-woos-Raila-for-State-job-/1064-1849700-ysiy7b/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">missed the opportunity</a> to exit the political stage at the apex of his political calling.
Granted, several other issues worked against him such as a weak internal party democracy, allegations of corruption and a disorganised campaign machine. That said, he should now consolidate his legacy by nurturing other leaders who are passionate about social reforms.
For their part, the elections provide the Kenyan people with yet another opportunity to demand more accountability from the leaders they have voted into power. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/yvonne-rowa-woods-347095" target="_blank" rel="author noopener">Yvonne Rowa Woods, </a>PhD Candidate in Politics and International Studies, University of Adelaide
Originally published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>
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