The exuberance of youth might be just what the doctor has ordered for Africa. There is no doubt that the zest this minister has for her responsibilities will take the continent far.&nbsp; 



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Bogolo Joy Kenewendo has hit the ground running in her role
as Botswana’s Minister of Investment, Trade and Industry, while making history
as the youngest person to be appointed in the position. She, however, takes it
all in her stride as she has always wanted to impact people’s lives.
Kenewendo’s outlook injects a fresh perspective on how she, and her
counterparts in strategic positions, intend on enriching a continent brimming
with possibilities. She shares her views on education, finance, empowerment as
well as traditional practices. 



Q. Are you Africa’s youngest minister, and how does it feel to be “a first” in your career path?



A. I’ve heard rumors that I am the youngest but I have no
confirmation. It’s been a great surprise and an honor. I was so humbled by all
the good wishes and cheers from around the world. I, however, say youth
leadership was the flagship of the political independence and revolution, and
so it should be for the economic independence revolution that I believe our
generation should lead. 



Most of the revolutionary leaders who brought Africa its independence were younger and some of the same age [as me]. 



Patrice Lumumba was 29 when he was, unfortunately,
assassinated as Prime Minister. Kwame Nkrumah, Sir Seretse Khama and Julius
Nyerere were in their late 30s, early 40s. Graça Machel was 30 years old when
she became Minister of Education in Mozambique.



READ MORE | <a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2019/03/04/botswanas-president-denies-report-of-600-million-loan-to-zimbabwe/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="Botswana’s President Denies Report Of $600 Million Loan To Zimbabwe (opens in a new tab)">Botswana’s President Denies Report Of $600 Million Loan To Zimbabwe</a>



Q. Why did you choose politics?



A. I have always wanted to do something that I felt could
have an impact on people’s lives. I studied Economics and worked as an
economist because I believed it was a good choice for those looking to
interrogate policy and make informed adjustments to the benefit of all. Where I
am at the moment, I get to be part of the highest decision-making body in the
country that directly affects people’s lives.



Q. Being young, African and a woman, what does representation mean to you?



A. Representation is very important. We all need to be
reminded of what is possible in the world. People from what is termed
“backwater villages” need to see the girl from Motopi and be comforted in that
you don’t need to come from big cities, or have a “known name”, or be of “a
certain age”. If you work hard and represent yourself well, someone will take
note. The world is always watching.



Q. Describe your academic/career path and the plans you have for Botswana.



A. I have a BA in Economics and MSc in International Trade
and I’m pursuing some more higher learning. 



My team and I have plans of making Botswana the startup
capital of the region and we are repositioning Botswana as a gateway into the
rest of southern Africa. 



We are doing so by working on our business reforms, to enable doing business in Botswana and working on a one-stop border post services with our neighboring countries. 



READ MORE | <a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/woman/2019/03/11/the-businesses-of-the-future-20-new-wealth-creators-on-the-african-continent/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="Businesses Of The Future: 20 New Wealth Creators On The African Continent (opens in a new tab)">Businesses Of The Future: 20 New Wealth Creators On The African Continent</a>



We are also investing in transport and ICT infrastructure
and of course, providing incentives, including a competitive corporate tax rate
of 5% in designated and reserved areas, as well as, government offtake
agreements with manufacturers who meet government needs most importantly. We
offer hospitality that is synonymous with our proudly Botswana culture, all
premised on Botho, democracy, accountability and peace.



Q. Africa has a prominent rural population that often has less civic participation because of lack of resources. What would you say to them?



A. Living in a modern economy doesn’t mean we should abandon
some traditional ways of engagement and accountability. We should enhance them
and demand for governments to notice them for the purposes of inclusivity. 



No government should wish for a disengaged population, it’s
in their best interest to ensure inclusivity and, therefore, such efforts
should be rewarded. In Botswana, the government holds the rural and traditional
courts highly and uses them as a key consultative and engagement/ participation
platform. 



The kgotla system has now been copied and exported by
thought leaders, recognizing Tribal Management of inclusivity, a community
spirit and ensuring that each gets the chance to voice his or her opinions,
every stage along the way. Echoing the true meaning of lekgotla, “I am because
we exist,” which in the West is democracy, ‘for the people, by the people’. 



Q. Share your highlights and the most challenging moments you’ve had so far.



A. Leading this ministry and working for the people of
Botswana is an everyday highlight. Every moment has been quite intense because
I’m aware that the hopes of many rely on this ministry and our cooperation with
the rest of government. 



I thank God every day for the strength, wisdom and joy
(especially in the face of adversity) he gives me to do this role.



My first international engagement following my appointment was to chair a SACU Ministers of Trade meeting which had some high temperature issues. There was no easing into the job. 



READ MORE | <a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/woman/2019/03/27/her-brush-with-business/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="Her Brush With Business (opens in a new tab)">Her Brush With Business</a>



It felt like I was David thrown into the ring, before sizing
up Goliath. Fortunately, as it did for David, it went well for me. I am
currently coordinating and chairing trade agreement negotiations on behalf of
SACU+Mozambique with the UK (to deal with the potential trade disruptions due
to Brexit). It is a landmark event and, as a result, so is this agreement. 



At home, our investor after-care company visits bring my
team and I so much joy as they show us what’s possible – the productive
capacity in Botswana. These as well as removing roadblocks for companies and
seeing them flourish. In this short space of seven months, we’ve seen great
progress and this is reassuring. 



Q. What are your economic views of the Africa continent?



A. I am pan-African. I love Africa, I believe in Africa.
Some say the ‘Africa rising’ story is no longer valid but I say ‘dismiss this
beautiful continent at your own peril’. 



I’m hopeful about opportunities, of increased intra-African
trade, that will be unlocked by the&nbsp;
AfCFTA [African Continental Free Trade Area] as well as Tripartite Free
Trade Area. 



Many more African leaders and up-and-coming leaders are alive to [the idea] that it’s only through our cooperation that we can pull ourselves out of our current debilitating state. And to that end in Setswana, we say “kgetsi ya tsie e kgonwa ke go tshwaraganelwa” (Together, we can do more).



READ MORE | <a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/cover-story/2019/03/05/the-monk-of-business-ylias-akbaraly-talks-about-secret-to-success-and-plans-to-african-with-him/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="The Monk Of Business: Ylias Akbaraly Talks About Secret To Success And Plans To Take Africa With Him (opens in a new tab)">The Monk Of Business: Ylias Akbaraly Talks About Secret To Success And Plans To Take Africa With Him</a>



Q. What message do you have for Africa’s girls and women?



A. Never let anyone make you believe that you are not
enough. 



You are enough. 



Public spaces, leadership spaces, money spaces are female
spaces too! The most important thing is to ensure we are not comfortable in
being the ‘only woman’ at the table. Any space can do with diversity. 



Please be your sister’s keeper, send the ladder down, extend
a hand (a helping one, even a comforting one, will be most welcome).&nbsp;

Bogolo

Bogolo Joy Kenewendo: Dismiss This Beautiful Continent At Your Own Peril

Botswana’s president on Friday dismissed a report that the country had offered Zimbabwe a $600 million diamond-backed loan and said his government had only offered to guarantee a $100 million private credit line for Botswana companies to invest in their troubled neighbor.



Zimbabwe’s secretary in the ministry of foreign affairs was quoted in the state-owned Herald newspaper on Tuesday saying Botswana had offered to lend Zimbabwe $500 million to support its diamond industry and another $100 million for the local private firms.



“I want to clarify these reports that we are giving Zimbabwe hundreds of millions in loans. That is totally untrue,” Mokgweetsi Masisi told reporters in Gaborone, a day after visiting Zimbabwe for business and trade mission.



“We are not giving them a single loan. The only thing we gave them yesterday were medical supplies made in Botswana and supplementary feeding worth 2.1 million pula ($197,600).”



There is $100 million credit from private banks in Botswana and Zimbabwe to help Botswana private companies, Masisi added.



“What we have demanded, which we are waiting for, is a letter of guarantee from the Zimbabweans to counter our own guarantee,” he said.



Masisi also said Botswana, which is the largest producer of diamonds by value, would help Zimbabwe with its diamond trade because “it would be useful and strategic for Botswana” as it aims to become a global center of diamond trading.



Venezuela&#8217;s Guaido heads home to lead protests 
Zimbabwe’s diamond sector has struggled since the government kicked out private companies from the eastern Marange fields in early 2016 after they declined to merge under the state-owned mining company.



Relations between Zimbabwe and Botswana have improved following a strained period when Botswana’s ex-President Ian Khama, who stepped down in 2018, routinely criticized Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe for holding on to power for too long.



A military coup in 2017 forced Mugabe to resign, ending his 37-year rule. -Reuters



&#8211; Brian Benza

UN-ASSEMBLY

Botswana’s President Denies Report Of $600 Million Loan To Zimbabwe

The political atmosphere in Nigeria leading up to the February polls is tense. Challenging the status quo are new and younger contenders promising hope and change.



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As the 2019 elections draw close in February in Africa’s most populous country, Atiku Abubakar has emerged the presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) while President Muhammadu Buhari has been affirmed for the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) ticket. 



Abubakar, a former vice president of Nigeria, has begun his campaign against president Buhari by highlighting the popular frustration of Nigerians over the rise in unemployment and poverty (two of the biggest voter concerns) on Buhari’s watch,as well as growing insecurity in central Nigeria. 



Nigeria was recently voted the world’s poverty capital by the Brookings Institution. Consequently, the handling of the economy has already emerged as a major issue at the start of the election cycle.



In 2016, the country entered its first recession in 25 years due to a slump in oil prices and attacks in the Niger Delta oil-producing region. Although emerging out of recession in 2017, growth still remains tardy and inflation is just above the central bank’s single-digit target range. 



Investor sentiment in the country is also low especially with leading telco giant MTN Nigeria being ordered by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to return $8.1 billion to the country claiming it was illegally repatriated from Nigeria.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/GettyImages-460291600-1024x683.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-38074" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/GettyImages-460291600-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/GettyImages-460291600-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/GettyImages-460291600-600x400.jpg 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/GettyImages-460291600-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/GettyImages-460291600.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption> Atiku Abubakar.  Picture: Pius Utomi/ AFP/Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



“If the fine is found to be unjustly imposed, it would have a negative implication on the image of Nigeria as a destination for foreign investors. Investors only invest in environments that have laws that protect them. If people are punished when they have not done anything wrong, that destroys investor confidence,” says Bismarck Rewane, CEO of Financial Derivatives, an economic think tank in Lagos.



This will be the fourth attempt by Abubakar to win a presidential election mirroring Buhari’s 2015 elections win. He defected from the ruling APC party and re-joined PDP to win the presidential ticket. In a speech in London, Abubakar unveiled his plans to offer a matching grant of $250 million each to the 36 states of the federation to challenge them to enhance their internally generated revenue (IGR).



Meanwhile,just as the election was shaping up to be a contest between two male political veterans, Obiageli Ezekwesili, a woman with a strong track record in economic leadership has announced her presidential candidacy for the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN). 



Ezekwesili,who is the co-founder of the #bringbackourgirls movement, is perhaps the most prominent woman to challenge for the top job. 



Her campaign for the return of the 276 Chibok girls kidnapped in northern Nigeriain 2014 by Boko Haram sparked worldwide support and led to the return of more than 100 girls to their families. 



Ezekwesili also served as the country’s education minister and Vice-President of the World Bank. In a speech to her party, Ezekwesili said the two men she faces represent a “mediocre political class that bumbles from one crisis to another”. Her campaign strategy is to position herself as the candidate bringing hope back to Nigeria by challenging the status quo.



Also as part of her strategy, Ezekwesili, 55, is trying to appeal to Nigeria’s youth by highlighting the lack of understanding of technological advances happening in the country by her challengers, Buhari, 75, and Abubakar, 71. 



However, in spite of her immense appeal, perhaps the youth might just need a candidate of their own who understands their needs and can speak for a nation where more than 50% are under the age of 30.



They may just have their wish. A welcome development to this election is the reduction of the age by which Nigerians can contest the election for public office. 



The bill, popularly referred to as the Not-Too-Young-To-Run Bill, reduces the age qualification for president from 40 to 35; governor from 35 to 30; senator from 35 to 30; House of Representatives membership from 30 to 25 and State House of Assembly membership from 30 to 25.



Bukunyi Olateru-Olagbegi, a 27-year-old entrepreneur and an up-and-coming political leader, has taken advantage of this new window to register his own political party, Modern Democratic Party. The party is putting education at the top of its agenda and calling for the youth of Nigeria to stand together and have a unified voice.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="828" height="596" src="https://www.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/bukunyi.png" alt="" class="wp-image-38073" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/bukunyi.png 828w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/bukunyi-300x216.png 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/bukunyi-600x432.png 600w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/bukunyi-768x553.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 828px) 100vw, 828px" /><figcaption> Bukunyi Olateru-Olagbegi. Picture: Supplied</figcaption></figure>



“We offer hope. Ours is a generation that is young, bold and open to possibilities. We believe that if hope can be returned to the heart of the common man/woman, they may once again start to believe in things becoming better. Right now, a lot of parties sing the word ‘hope’ and yet their internal democracy itself is hopeless,” he says.



“The masses are not blind. They see the internal wrangling in these political parties on the pages of newspapers. How then can they truly believe in a message of hope by these same people? Our youthfulness and firm grasp of the complexities and blistering pace of the world we live in today, easily make us,in our opinion, fit to lead. We understand the power of flexibility and we understand what ‘change’ really means. The world needs the youth right now, and we are finally ready to step up.”



He says his party is committed to building a structure capable of winning elections across all political spheres and levels with a resolution to put a spotlight on the downtrodden in society, a society that, according to Olateru-Olagbeji, is in critical need of deliverance from bad leadership.



“As a party, we hope to correct the present for the sake of the future; we hope to harness the mental and resources of my generation with fresh ideas and innovation because this generation is not tied to the prejudices and biases of the ones before us, we don’t see tribe, religion and even gender; we are united in our hunger for success. We hope to inspire a generation of young Nigerians and Africans to work at building our nation and continent, community by community, till we become the leading and ruling party,” he says.



The political atmosphere leading up to February is extremely tense. 



No matter who is contending for the top job, one thing is certain,Nigerians need a new economy, one that provides them with opportunities for growth and prosperity, and they need that, yesterday.

Ezekwesli

Twists And Turns Of Nigeria’s Election Campaign Trail

South Africa’s land expropriation without compensation intentions have caught the attention of United States President Donald Trump.

Trump tweeted on Thursday morning.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
I have asked Secretary of State <a href="https://twitter.com/SecPompeo?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SecPompeo</a> to closely study the South Africa land and farm seizures and expropriations and the large scale killing of farmers. “South African Government is now seizing land from white farmers.” <a href="https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@TuckerCarlson</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/FoxNews?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@FoxNews</a>
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1032454567152246785?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 23, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
A News report by Fox News stated that South Africa has began seizing land &#8220;from it&#8217;s own citizens because they are the wrong skin color&#8221;.
<iframe loading="lazy" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/EThwj4NtnvU" width="651" height="366" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe>
This follows after SA’s President Cyril Ramaphosa had a Q&amp;A on land expropriation in Parliament on Wednesday, and just over a month after land hearings began around the country.
Trump’s comments sent the rand 1.87% lower to the dollar to 14.42 as fears spooked investors that sanctions could be imposed on South Africa.
&#8211; Shared Content

trump-tweet_km

US President attacks SA’s land expropriation intentions, rand slides

Forbes Woman Africa’s Godfrey Mutizwa chats with Naledi Pandor, South Africa’s Minister of Higher Education and Training to discuss her plans for youth and enterprise development as to create jobs and get South Africa thriving.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/woman/2018/06/17/the-future-in-her-hands/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: The Future In Her Hands</a>

Naledi-233

One on One With Naledi Pandor SA Minister of Higher Education

It’s been quite an ascent for George Weah – from international football star to president of his country, Liberia. He was sworn in on January 22 to a crowd of adoring supporters who voted for a change, as well as heads of states and football stars, including Cameroon’s Samuel Eto’o.
From one of Monrovia’s poorest slums, Weah made a name for himself as a talented footballer at Monaco at the age of 21, and went on to play for some of Europe’s biggest clubs, such as Paris Saint-Germain and AC Milan. He won the prestigious Ballon d’Or and FIFA Player of the Year awards in 1995. During his illustrious career that ended in 2003 he also led Liberia’s national team. Musa Shannon, a Liberian businessman and former teammate with Liberia’s national team says Weah’s temperament on and off the field was unparalleled.
“He was inspirational and expected nothing but excellence from all his teammates. He was able to get the best out of everyone. He never took shortcuts.”
Considered the choice of the masses, Weah’s humble beginnings combined with his international celebrity status earned him tremendous support from the mostly youthful Liberian population, especially the poor. In the December run-off elections, Weah easily earned 61.5% of the votes over then Vice-President Joseph Boakai.
“He is the people’s president, he is the one they have chosen,” says Shannon.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2018/02/20/new-dawn-zimbabwe-rosy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: A New Dawn For Zimbabwe, But Is It Rosy?</a>
Weah’s win marks the first peaceful transition in decades for the Liberian people. “We have arrived at this transition neither by violence, nor by force of arms. Not a single life was lost in the process… this transition was achieved by the free and democratic will of the Liberian people,” said Weah in his inauguration speech.
Although he moved from sport to politics, the transition hasn’t been sudden, nor without struggle. In 2005, Weah ran unsuccessfully against Noble Laureate President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, who made history as the first democratically-elected female African president. Through his party, the Congress for Democratic Change, Weah ran again in 2011 as running-mate to Winston Tubman, losing again to Johnson Sirleaf.
Citing inexperience and a lack of formal education as the main reason for his losses, Weah earned a degree in business and took a seat on the senate in 2014.
“People speak of George Weah as though he doesn’t have a political history, so that if he doesn’t succeed they will say he was new to the game,” says Ezekiel Pajibo, political analyst and human rights activist. “He has been in politics for 12 years and there is no evidence of anything he has done for the Liberian people.”
Expectations are high. Weah promised jobs for the youth and poverty alleviation. Of Liberia’s 4.6 million inhabitants, over 60% are under 25, many of whom voted for him in the hopes of a quick reduction in unemployment.
He inherits a country that has survived two bloody civil wars between 1989 and 2003, a fledgling economy and a young population that is largely unemployed. The Ebola epidemic, which killed over 5,000 people, also showed cracks in the healthcare system. The country still does not have adequate running water or electricity since the civil war, and properly staffed schools remain a problem.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2018/02/15/zumas-time-mean-south-africa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Zuma&#8217;s time is up &#8211; but does it mean for South Africa?</a>
In his inauguration speech, he made a series of promises.
Firstly, he would stamp out corruption. Secondly, he would assist the private sector. Weah says he wants Liberians to stop being “spectators” in their economy while foreigners control the majority of their resources. Thirdly, he will focus on vocational training for the youth.
Promises must be followed by action. His party has been criticized by the opposition for not clearly outlining how these goals will be achieved.
There are also doubts about Weah garnering the same amount of respect from the international community as his predecessor. “He has to exude leadership capability and have presence in front of the international community. Johnson Sirleaf, as the first female president in Africa, brought international goodwill towards Liberia. She also had a history of working in development structures. President George Weah has none of that,” says Pajibo.
Weah achieved more than was expected of him as a footballer. Liberians will be hoping he can do the same as their country’s president. &#8211; Written by Lamelle Shaw

The People’s President

Anyone who ever stood up for principle and paid for it in pain will mourn the passing of Morgan Tsvangirai, the man who never wanted to be president but wore himself out trying on behalf of his suffering people.
Tsvangirai, who succumbed to colon cancer in a Johannesburg hospital on February 14, never wanted the power that many leaders in Africa crave. His heart was in his humble rural roots in Buhera in eastern Zimbabwe – where he was born the eldest of nine children to a miner – and in the trade union movement. Tsvangirai followed his father down the mine and when independence came, in 1980, he joined the ruling party, Zanu-PF, and rose swiftly through the ranks becoming a staunch supporter of President Robert Mugabe. History is littered with such ironies.
It was as head of the mighty Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions that Tsvangirai enjoyed his annus mirabilis at the head of hundreds of thousands of workers. With his trademark cowboy hat, he could hold a crowd with fiery oratory and hold a strike in place against the odds. With a handful of faxes he could close the country down, which he did in 1997 and 1998 with mass stay-aways as economic hard times and President Mugabe’s indifference hurt the people.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/24/will-mnangagwa-usher-new-democracy-view-zimbabwe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Will Mnangagwa usher in a new democracy? The view from Zimbabwe</a>
It was this skill that led him up the greasy pole of politics; yet, even in his pomp you could tell that he didn’t want to.
One hot afternoon, in 1998, amid a spate of strikes, my TV crew and I received a frantic call from Tsvangirai’s office for us to come and save him. By this time, he had raised the ire of thugs loyal to Zanu-PF, calling themselves war veterans, who stormed his office and tried to throw him out of a third-floor window. Tsvangirai asked his secretary to call us instead of the police because, sadly, in the politically charged atmosphere, he didn’t trust them.
Luckily, as we arrived, the thugs fled. As we calmed Tsvangirai down, I asked him why he didn’t go ahead and run for president as he had the power of the workers at his elbow.
“No, Chris, if you run for president even your grandchildren will be persecuted,” said Tsvangirai.
And so it turned out. Activists shepherded Tsvangirai into forming the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), setting into motion years of vilification, intimidation and abuse that left him battered and bloody in mind and body. Tsvangirai tried to keep his feet on the ground through his stable home life. In the early days he used to hold press conferences in his front garden where his charming wife, Susan, who died tragically in a car accident in 2009, used to bring us tea with a smile.
Yet, worse times came after tea. Tsvangirai, egged on by the west, became the world’s champion against the growing horror of Mugabe and paid for it by being arrested, beaten and charged with treason. Even the Mugabe-leaning judges in Harare dismissed the trumped-up charges.
Undoubtedly Tsvangirai won the presidential elections against Mugabe in 2008, but the conniving election authorities refused to release the results. Thus stolen election led to a power-sharing agreement, the following year, under which Tsvangirai became a pretty much powerless deputy president. He was never to reach the top spot not that, deep down, it really bothered him.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2018/01/15/zimbabwe-urgently-needs-new-land-administration-system/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Zimbabwe urgently needs a new land administration system</a>
Those who had stood against the bullies and suffered may prefer to remember Tsvangirai by another tale related by one of my colleagues in Zimbabwe.
A top level delegation of MDC officials had gone to see their political counterparts in Zambia. Zanu-PF apparatchiks in Harare lent on the Zambian government to deport them and the MDC group ended up stranded and angry under a tree, with phones with flat batteries, on the Zimbabwe side of the Chirundu border. Tsvangirai’s colleagues attacked their leader under the branches of the tree.
“What is the point of this political movement?” says one.
Tsvangirai seized the moment and ordered his empty-pocketed colleagues to sing as they marched to a village a few kilometers away. A few hours later, villagers were surprised to see Tsvangirai, in full voice, walking into their village at the head of a phalanx of suited comrades. A cell phone in the village summoned transport and they drove home in good spirits.
A fleeting taste of the leadership that Zimbabwe was destined to never see.

Morgan Tsvangirai: The quiet man forced into the wrong job

South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) is mired in a serious leadership crisis, and President Jacob Zuma faces an ignominious end to his political career. The 74-year-old has refused to take responsibility amid corruption and conspiracy charges. Having been <a href="https://theconversation.com/cyril-ramaphosa-prepares-to-confront-south-africas-bleak-future-89410" target="_blank" rel="noopener">replaced as party president by Cyril Ramaphosa</a> in December 2017, he faced the choice between resigning or taking his chances with a no-confidence vote in parliament. After days of mouting pressure, he <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-43066443" target="_blank" rel="noopener">finally walked</a>.
The whole episode carries more than an echo of recent events in neighbouring Zimbabwe, where a bloodless military coup removed President Robert Mugabe but left his ruling ZANU-PF party in power, while the coup’s leaders were rewarded with cabinet posts.
The global public seems glued to every move in South Africa’s political drama. But is the attention actually warranted? Is the country really at one of its most momentous crossroads yet? That will only be clear with hindsight.
Perhaps Zuma’s removal will help transform South Africa’s political culture and regenerate the ANC, which is still stuck in its old anti-apartheid/Mandela mode. If it revives the ruling party and ends the era of old men clinging to power and acting with impunity, Zuma’s departure will be one of the great Rubicons in South Africa’s post-apartheid history.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/21/lessons-south-africas-jacob-zuma-robert-mugabes-misfortunes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Lessons for South Africa&#8217;s Jacob Zuma in Robert Mugabe&#8217;s misfortunes</a>
<h2>Falling short</h2>
Just before the 1994 elections, ANC activist <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/ns-interview-albie-sachs-lawyer-and-anti-apartheid-campaigner" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Albie Sachs</a> declared that the ANC had at best two terms in power to bring electricity and running water to the majority of South Africans and to address the inequality in educational, health and infrastructural services. Any longer, he said, and young South Africans would start to challenge its authority.
To give the party its due, what has been achieved is remarkable. It is easy to forget just how momentous the country’s problems were when the ANC took power in 1994. Given it started with one of the world’s largest gaps between the wealthy (at that time almost exclusively “white”) and the poor (almost exclusively of colour), post-apartheid South Africa has been tremendously successful in creating a stable and solid <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/178079/how-big-south-africas-black-middle-class-is-and-why-the-anc-are-concerned/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">black middle class</a>.
The party had to try and refashion the country on all levels – political, economic, social, cultural – and in some ways, it has made great strides. While it has its many critics, the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of the late 1990s helped the nation start to move on from one of the most intense protracted experiences of racial discrimination in recent history.
But some of the deep problems apartheid wrought are anything but solved: millions <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2017/08/22/more-than-half-of-south-africans-living-in-poverty-stats-sa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">still live in poverty</a>, and levels of violent crime (notably sexual violence) are <a href="https://africacheck.org/factsheets/south-africas-crime-statistics-201617/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">strikingly high</a>. All the while, many among the ANC’s elite (not least Zuma himself) have conspicuously accrued tremendous wealth, and their extravagance has become a significant problem for the party’s legitimacy. But instead of cleaning house or changing its ways, the ANC has over and over again chosen to fall back on its victory against apartheid and the memory of its most famous member, Nelson Mandela.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2016/12/01/zuma-thief-must-voetsek/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: &#8216;Zuma The Thief Must Voetsek&#8217;</a>
<h2>Behind the figleaf</h2>
In 2013, a month before Mandela passed away, the South African High Commission in London hosted the exhibition “We Love Mandela”, which included a <a href="https://www.enca.com/life/mandela-portrayed-jesus-last-supper" target="_blank" rel="noopener">painting</a> by South African artist Simon Dean entitled “The Last Supper”. It portrays Mandela as Jesus, surrounded by an astonishing cadre of “disciples” – from Desmond Tutu, Mohandas Gandhi, Martin Luther King, and the Ethiopian Emperor Haile Selassie.
This sort of Mandela-worship has been the party’s figleaf, and a useful device for silencing opposition, criticism, and calls for change. For far too long, it kept the party safe enough from electoral humiliation that Zuma remained secure in his office. But underneath it all, the political crisis that now confronts both the ANC and South Africa writ large has been brewing for years, and Zuma’s demise is long overdue.
To judge by the coverage outside South Africa, with the global public glued to every turn in this political drama, one might think Zuma’s demise had come from nowhere, and that it is guaranteed to change the country for good. But in reality, nothing new has come to light in some time. The latest investigation into his connections with corrupt interests began with <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2013-05-07-the-beginners-guide-to-the-guptas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">exposés</a> by the South African Mail &amp; Guardian newspaper in 2013. Most of the assorted corruption charges against Zuma predate his presidency, as does the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/10/khwezi-woman-accused-jacob-zuma-south-african-president-aids-activist-fezekile-ntsukela-kuzwayo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">controversial rape case against him</a> in 2005-6.
Zuma’s presumptive successor, Cyril Ramaphosa, <a href="https://theconversation.com/cyril-ramaphosa-prepares-to-confront-south-africas-bleak-future-89410" target="_blank" rel="noopener">is not exactly the embodiment of radical change</a>. But Ramaphosa will have the chance to finally seize the impetus for a true political transformation – to find a way of tackling poverty, violence and discrimination while reforming the ANC from top to bottom.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91873/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />Only if that happens will the end of Zuma really turn out to be the moment of transformation much of the world thinks it is guaranteed to be. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/heike-schmidt-444690" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Heike Schmidt</a>, Associate Professor in Modern African History, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-reading-902">University of Reading</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

Zuma’s time is up – but what does it mean for South Africa?

A plethora of people are gathered inside the Nasrec Expo Centre in Johannesburg, all draped in regalia of the 106-year-old African National Congress (ANC), South Africa’s ruling party.
The crowd of more than 5,000 moves like a multi-headed beast, chanting South Africa’s struggle songs. The head of this beast can be found in a song that keeps creeping up in many parts of this crowd.
“Unity maqabane, ixesha lisondele,” goes the song, which loosely translates to “unity comrades, the time has come.”
This is moments before the African National Congress, the oldest liberation movement on the continent, makes one of the biggest decisions in more than a century of struggle and campaigning in Africa. It is about to elect who is going to lead it out of its most difficult time in democratic South Africa.
In a few moments, the ANC will choose who will replace President Jacob Zuma, a man who has ruffled feathers from the boardrooms to the streets.
Even before he took office, Zuma faced 783 counts of corruption. Around $20 million of taxpayers’ money was used to upgrade his private home in Nkandla, even though he is paying back some of it. His relationship with the Gupta family has cast a shadow over his presidency. The economy has undoubtedly taken a huge dip under his leadership, with unemployment rising and investments falling.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/21/lessons-south-africas-jacob-zuma-robert-mugabes-misfortunes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Lessons for South Africa&#8217;s Jacob Zuma in Robert Mugabe&#8217;s misfortunes</a>
At Nasrec, as the mood of the people swirls in different currents, dark uncertainty is visible on their faces. Factionalism is at its worse within the ANC, with the party split between two candidates.
The first is business-minded ANC Deputy President, Cyril Ramaphosa, who many believe should be next in line, claiming it is party tradition. The unions, however, say he is too capitalist.
The other is Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, a veteran parliamentarian and former chairperson of the African Union Commission. She is the first female ANC member gunning for the party’s top position. Many however say she is too close to President Zuma, her former husband.
Months of campaigning, factionalism, infighting and party slates have all boiled down to this moment. After a period of uncertainty and songs blaring from every corner, EleXions Agency, the facilitators of the voting process, take to the stage to put the masses here out of their misery.
Ramaphosa emerges as the new ANC president by a whisker. A mere 179 votes separates him from Dlamini-Zuma, after almost 5,000 delegates cast their votes.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2016/12/01/zuma-thief-must-voetsek/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: &#8216;Zuma The Thief Must Voetsek&#8217;</a>
The top six positions of the ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) are also closely contested, with the outcome split between supporters of Ramaphosa and Dlamini-Zuma. Is this the unity outcome that’s often crept up in songs here, or will this cause further division within the self-confessed corruption-riddled party?
“It’s an interesting outcome but it’s an outcome that’s organizational. I think that’s what the ANC needs, where we pull everyone together under one roof and make it a point that people work together as a collective, cohere and move forward,” says recently elected ANC Eastern Cape Chairman, Oscar Mabuyane.
Fikile Mbalula, the newly-elected NEC member, and staunch supporter of Dlamini-Zuma, preaches unity after the battle.
“The conference is over, we have one president and not two. Cyril Ramaphosa is my president and we are going to work nicely together,” says Mbalula, who is also South Africa’s Minister of Police.
Some, however, aren’t taking kindly to the outcome. Bathabile Dlamini, the President of the ANC Women’s League, lambastes the new leadership. The Women’s League had thrown its weight behind Dlamini-Zuma in the hope that she’d become the first woman to lead the ANC in its history.
“This is an attack on women’s struggles. We have been dealt a blow and want to call on all women to stand together,” says Dlamini.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/12/19/anc-new-leader-south-africa-remains-political-precipice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: The ANC has a new leader but South Africa remains on a political precipice</a>
Jesse Duarte is the only woman in the top six – coincidentally contesting for her position against another woman.
Business tycoon and former Gauteng Premier, Tokyo Sexwale, who is also concerned by the lack of women in the top six, gave words of warning on tackling corruption within the ANC.
“When you become president of the country [one day], make sure you have the long arm of the law reach out to criminals. Start with criminals who are trying to hide under Cyril’s umbrella, because that’s how they corrupt the situation. Before you steal from Eskom, SAA and so on, you’ve got to corrupt the ANC. So deal with them decisively first,” says Sexwale, who was once named alongside Ramaphosa and Mathews Phosa in a plot aimed at toppling then president, Thabo Mbeki, in 2001.
A thorny issue for the new ANC leadership, which includes the 80 NEC members, are the growing calls to recall outgoing ANC president, Zuma, from the presidency of South Africa.
In his closing speech at the conference, Ramaphosa, emphasizes the need for a public office that wouldn’t serve vested interests, but build a truly developmental state.
“Our people will judge this conference not only by what we have done here over these past five days, but perhaps more importantly, they will judge it by what we do next. The people of South Africa want action.”
Will Ramaphosa be able to deliver this action? Time will tell.

‘The People Want Action’

Rumours that President Jacob Zuma has instructed the South African National Defence Force to draw up plans for implementing a <a href="https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1756940/sa-presidency-rejects-reports-of-state-of-emergency-regulations-draft/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">state of emergency</a> may or may not be true. Nonetheless they are evidence of South Africa’s febrile political atmosphere.
But any assumption that <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/anc-conference/anc54-breaking-ramaphosa-elected-anc-president-12453127" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the election</a> of <a href="https://www.forbes.com/profile/cyril-ramaphosa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cyril Ramaphosa</a> as the new leader of the African National Congress (ANC), after winning the race against Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, will place South Africa on an even keel are misplaced. Indeed, the drama may only be beginning.
It’s useful to look back to 2007 when President Thabo Mbeki unwisely ran for a <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/i-asked-mbeki-to-stand-for-a-third-term-to-stop-zuma-kasrils-20171108" target="_blank" rel="noopener">third term as ANC leader</a>. His unpopularity among large segments of the party provided the platform for his <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/Politics/Zuma-sweeps-to-resounding-victory-20071218" target="_blank" rel="noopener">defeat by Zuma</a> at Polokwane. Within a few months the National Executive Committee of the ANC latched onto an <a href="http://www.saflii.org/za/cases/ZAKZHC/2008/71.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">excuse</a> to ask Mbeki to <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/thabo-mbeki-resigns-south-africa%E2%80%99s-second-democratic-president" target="_blank" rel="noopener">stand down as president of the country</a> before the end of his term of office. Being committed to the traditions of party loyalty he complied, resigning as president some eight months before the Constitution required him to do so.
The question this raises is whether South Africa should now expect a repeat performance following the election of a new leader of the ANC. Will this lead to a party instruction to Zuma to stand down as president of the country? And if it does, will he do what Mbeki did and meekly resign?
There’s a big difference between the two scenarios: Mbeki had no reason to fear the consequences of leaving office. Zuma, on the other hand, has numerous reasons to cling to power. This is what makes him, and the immediate future, dangerous for South Africa, and suggests the country faces instability.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/21/lessons-south-africas-jacob-zuma-robert-mugabes-misfortunes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Lessons for South Africa&#8217;s Jacob Zuma in Robert Mugabe&#8217;s misfortunes</a>
<h2>Why Zuma won’t go</h2>
It is not out of the question that Zuma may say to himself, and to South Africa, that he is not going anywhere. He is losing <a href="https://theconversation.com/dramatic-night-in-south-africa-leaves-president-hanging-on-by-a-thread-57180" target="_blank" rel="noopener">court case</a> after <a href="https://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21732538-judges-keep-finding-against-south-africas-embattled-president-jacob-zuma-loses-two" target="_blank" rel="noopener">court case</a>, and judicial decisions are increasingly narrowing his legal capacity to block official and independent investigations into the extent of <a href="http://ewn.co.za/Topic/State-Capture" target="_blank" rel="noopener">state capture</a> by business interests close to him.
With every passing day, the prospects of his finding himself in the dock, <a href="https://theconversation.com/president-zuma-loses-bid-to-dodge-783-charges-but-will-he-have-the-last-laugh-85703" target="_blank" rel="noopener">facing 783 charges</a>, including of corruption and racketeering, also increase.
Zuma will have every constitutional right to defy an ANC instruction to stand down as state president until his term expires following the next <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/newsmaker-2019-elections-results-will-be-credible-20171015-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">general election in 2019</a>, and the new parliament’s election of a new president. In terms of the <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.za/legislation/bills/2002/b16.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">South African Constitution</a>, his term of office will be brought to an early end only if parliament passes a vote of no confidence in his presidency, or votes that, for one reason or another, he is unfit for office.
But today’s ANC is so divided that it cannot be assumed that a majority of ANC MPs would <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-happening-inside-the-anc-not-parliament-is-key-to-why-zuma-prevails-82399" target="_blank" rel="noopener">back a motion of no confidence</a>, even following the election of Ramaphosa as the party’s new leader.
In other words, there is a very real prospect that South Africa will see itself ruled for at least another 18 months or so by what is termed <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2007-06-27-anc-debates-two-centres-of-power" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“two centres of power”</a>, with the authority and the legitimacy of the party (formally backing Ramaphosa) vying against that of the state (headed by Zuma).
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2016/12/01/zuma-thief-must-voetsek/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: &#8216;Zuma The Thief Must Go&#8217;</a>
<h2>Throwing caution to the wind</h2>
As if that is not a sufficient condition for political instability, we may expect that Zuma will continue to use his executive power to erect defences against his future prosecution. He will reckon to leave office only with guarantees of immunity. Until he gets them, Zuma will defy all blandishments to go. And if he does not get what he wants, he may throw caution to the wind and go for broke.
Hence, perhaps, the possibility that he is prepared to invoke a state of emergency.
The grounds for Zuma imposing a state of emergency would be specious, summoned up to defend his interests and those backing him. They would be likely to infer <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-pressure-mounts-on-south-africas-jacob-zuma-he-blames-an-old-enemy-western-intelligence-agencies-69599" target="_blank" rel="noopener">foreign interference</a> in affairs of state, alongside suggestions that <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/zuma-again-denounces-the-monopoly-of-white-economic-power-11988619" target="_blank" rel="noopener">white monopoly capital</a>, whites as a whole as well as nefarious others were conspiring to prevent much needed <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2017-12-15-know-your-candidate-dlamini-zuma-beats-the-ret-drum/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">radical economic transformation</a>. Present constitutional arrangements would be declared <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-south-africans-should-be-worried-by-anc-talk-of-a-colour-revolution-87019" target="_blank" rel="noopener">counter-revolutionary</a> and those defending them doing so only to protect their material interests.
After a matter of time, such justifications would probably be declared unconstitutional by the judiciary. It is then that there would be a confrontation between raw power and the Constitution. If such a situation should arise, we cannot be sure which would be the winner.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2017/12/13/anger-corporate-slippery-slope/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Anger At The Corporate Slippery Slope</a>
<h2>South Africa’s army</h2>
It is remarkable how little the searchlight that has focused on state capture has rested on the Defence Force. Much attention has been given to how the executive has effectively co-opted the <a href="https://theconversation.com/leaked-emails-ramaphosas-hypocrisy-on-spying-by-the-south-african-state-83605" target="_blank" rel="noopener">intelligence</a> and <a href="http://www.ngopulse.org/article/2016/09/29/political-interference-weakening-rule-law-sa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prosecutorial service</a>, as well has how the top ranks of the police have been selected for political rather than <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/15/world/africa/south-africa-police-commissioner-under-investigation-is-suspended.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">operational reasons</a>.
It seems to have been assumed that South Africa’s military is simply sitting in the background, observing political events from afar. But is it? Where would its loyalties lie in the event of a major constitutional crisis?
The danger of the present situation is that South Africa might be about to find out.
Were the military to throw its weight behind Zuma the country would be in no-man’s land. Of course, there would be a massive popular reaction, with the further danger that the president himself would summon his popular cohorts to <a href="https://theconversation.com/anc-military-veterans-and-the-threat-to-south-africas-democracy-76118" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“defend the revolution”</a>.
And South Africans should not assume that Zuma would be politically isolated. Those who backed Dlamini-Zuma did so to defend their present positions and capacity to use office for personal gain. If they were to rise up, the army would then be elevated to the status of defender of civil order.
What is certain is that in such a wholly uncertain situation the economy would spiral downwards quickly. Capital would take flight at a faster rate than ever before, <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=10658" target="_blank" rel="noopener">employment</a> would collapse even further, <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=10334" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poverty</a> would become even further entrenched.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/13/southern-slug-fest/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: The Southern Slug Fest</a>
<h2>Reasons to be hopeful</h2>
Is all this too extreme a scenario? Hopefully yes. There are numerous good reasons why such a fate will be averted.
Zuma’s control over the ANC is waning, as is his control over various state institutions, notably the National Prosecuting Authority. And the country has a checks and balances in place: there is a vigorous civil society, the judiciary has proved the Constitution’s main defence and trade unions and business remain influential.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89248/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />Even so, it remains the case that what transpires now that the ANC’s national conference is over will determine the fate and future of our democracy. South Africa is approaching rough waters, and a Jacob Zuma facing an inglorious and humiliating end to his presidency will be a Jacob Zuma at his most dangerous. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/roger-southall-296862" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Roger Southall</a>, Professor of Sociology, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-the-witwatersrand-894" target="_blank" rel="noopener">University of the Witwatersrand</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

The ANC has a new leader: but South Africa remains on a political precipice

Zimbabwe has a new leader. Robert Mugabe is out. His former ally turned rival, Emmerson Mnangagwa, is in. What now?
After <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2017/nov/21/zimbabwe-celebrates-as-mugabe-resignation-announced-in-pictures" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ecstatic celebrations to mark Mugabe’s resignation</a> thoughts have began to turn to what comes next. Mugabe may have exited the political scene, but it remains dominated by the same political party – <a href="http://www.thezimbabwemail.com/politics/dont-need-opposition-zanupf-business-chinamasa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zanu-PF</a> – that sustained his rule.
Moreover, the country’s president-elect, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-41995876" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Emmerson Mnangagwa</a>, is hardly a breath of fresh air. Having held a series of cabinet positions under Mugabe, and served as First Vice President between December 2014 and <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-41914768" target="_blank" rel="noopener">his sacking in November 2017</a>, he looks more like a force for continuity than change.
As a result, talk in Harare quickly turned to what kind of leader Mnangagwa will be, and the system of government that would best serve ordinary Zimbabweans.
<h2>The fork in the road</h2>
My conversations with people on the streets of the capital, Harare, about the political system the country needs suggests that two distinct camps are emerging: those who want elections to be held as soon as possible, and those who say the polls should be postponed and a <a href="https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/11/16/zimbabwe-moves-to-set-up-interim-govt-as-mugabe-is-apparently-ousted/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">transitional government</a> established.
Both of these options have genuine &#8216;pros&#8217; but also strong &#8216;cons&#8217;. As is so often the case, there is no perfect answer that solves all problems.
It is understandable that many Zimbabweans want a period of calm and orderly government after the twists and turns of recent weeks, and believe that it would be better to form an inclusive government that would feature representatives of all of the main political parties – a kind of power sharing in all but name.
Even though I have consistently argued in favour of the value of democracy and elections in Africa, I have to admit that the “transitioners” have some viable arguments.
The most obvious is that a period of stability and more consensual government might facilitate much needed reform of the economy and also the wider political and legal system. After all, rival parties are unlikely to come to agreement on these issues if they are immediately thrust into an election campaign.
The “transitioners” also have a point when it comes to democracy. Few people in Zimbabwe believe that it’s possible for elections to be free and fair if they are held between July and August next year, as currently scheduled. Given this, and the current divisions within the opposition, a rush to elections is likely to result in a convincing victory for Zanu-PF under problematic circumstances.
A transitional arrangement would allow for much needed electoral reforms to be put in place, creating the potential for a better quality process and a more consensual outcome later on.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/23/bye-bye-bob-come-far-little/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Bye bye Bob &#8211; did you come so far for so little?</a>
<h2>Testing the Crocodile</h2>
But there is also another camp that wants to see Mnangagwa, popularly known as <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/special-features/zimbabwe/who-is-emmerson-the-crocodile-mnangagwa-12013101" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Crocodile</a>, to face an election as soon as possible.
Just like their counterparts in the “transitioner” camp, “electioneers”, have some strong arguments. Whatever one wants to call Mnangagwa’s rise to power – from <a href="https://www.thezimbabwean.co/2017/11/mnangagwa-coup-mphoko-missing-chipanga-now-custody-warrent-arrest-mzembi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a coup</a> to an <a href="http://www.chronicle.co.zw/dont-meddle-in-zanu-pf-affairs-vp-mnangagwa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">internal party squabble</a> – it is clear that it has not been a high quality democratic transition. And while it is clear that the overthrow of Mugabe was hugely popular, we don’t know if the same applies to a Mnangagwa presidency. An election would settle that question.
It would also give the new government a popular mandate to undertake <a href="https://www.dailynews.co.zw/articles/2017/10/14/zim-needs-bold-economic-reforms-us-envoy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">economic reforms</a>, whoever wins power. This could be important to the success of the reform project, because things are likely to <a href="https://www.newsday.co.zw/2016/12/2017-looks-gloomier-zim/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">get worse</a> before they get better, and the country’s economic medicine may prove to be a bitter pill to swallow.
Holding elections would also do one thing that postponing them will not; it will test the commitment of the new government to democratic norms and values from the get-go. One of the main reasons that Zimbabwean elections have been poor quality is that <a href="https://www.theindependent.co.zw/2017/03/24/zanu-pf-revives-rigging-machinery/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zanu-PF and the military</a> have intervened to make sure this was the case. As another friend put it, “If they are really committed to doing the right thing, they can do it right away and the elections will not be too bad”.
<h2>Learning from the past</h2>
“Electioneers” are also motivated by scepticism that an inclusive transitional government would get much done. Both Zimbabwe and Kenya have had power-sharing governments in the recent past, and while they both introduced new constitutions they also saw high levels of corruption and limited <a href="https://www.academia.edu/6446844/Power_Sharing_in_Comparative_Perspective" target="_blank" rel="noopener">security sector reform</a>. They also both led to elections that were denounced by opposition parties as being <a href="https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2016/12/24/2-million-votes-used-to-rig-2013-election-raila_c1478146" target="_blank" rel="noopener">unfree and unfair</a>.
It’s fair to ask: why would it be different this time?
The question is particularly pertinent given the current composition of parliament. Because Morgan Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change boycotted a <a href="https://www.dailynews.co.zw/articles/2016/05/04/mdc-upholds-poll-boycott-stance" target="_blank" rel="noopener">series of by-elections</a> on the basis that they would not be free and fair, it has lost many of the seats it won in 2013. As a result, any transitional arrangement that deferred elections and “froze” the current parliament for the next three years would have a big legislative advantage to Zanu-PF.
It is also important to keep in mind that economics cannot be divorced from politics: Zimbabwe’s current economic difficulties stem precisely from an unaccountable political framework that ignored the interests of the people. Given that recent events have <a href="http://solidaritypeacetrust.org/1776/zimbabwe-caught-between-the-croc-and-gucci-city/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">emboldened the military</a> and given them an even stronger voice within government, this is a pressing concern.
Deferring electoral reforms in order to focus on economic recovery may therefore prove to be a self defeating strategy.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/22/zimbabwe-beware-military-looking-interests-not-democracy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE; Zimbabwe beware: the military is looking after its own interests, not democracy</a>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
Ultimately, the form of government that evolves in Zimbabwe will not be a product of popular dialogue. One of the distinctive features of this process is that for the most part it has been conducted behind closed doors by a <a href="https://www.thezimbabwean.co/2017/11/zimbabwean-not-coup/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">small elite</a>.
Don’t be fooled by the pictures of tens of thousands of people marching on Saturday – all sides have invoked popular support, but none have actually <a href="http://www.thezimbabwemail.com/opinion/press-statement-army-gives-update-negotiations-mugabe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">encouraged ordinary people</a> to say what they want, or given them a seat at the table. This is a worrying sign if strengthening democracy is the long-term goal.
Recent <a href="http://bulawayo24.com/index-id-news-sc-national-byo-122715.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">public statements</a> by the main parties at the time of going to press suggests that they are not converging on an interim administration, and so the “electioneers” may get their wish. That could still change because <a href="http://www.thezimbabwemail.com/main/mdc-calls-mnangagwa-repent-join-big-tent/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">talks are ongoing</a> and both sides would gain something from a delay. But if it doesn’t the people will be able to have their say on how they want their country to be run.
Of course, voting will not actually equate to “having a say” unless the country’s new leader follows through on his promise to build a “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/22/emmerson-mnangagwa-to-be-sworn-in-as-zimbabwes-president-on-friday" target="_blank" rel="noopener">new democracy</a>”, and the ruling party can kick the habit of a lifetime. Watch this space. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nic-cheeseman-180800" target="_blank" rel="author noopener">Nic Cheeseman</a>, Professor of Democracy, University of Birmingham
Originally published in<a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> The Conversation</a>
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Will Mnangagwa usher in a new democracy? The view from Zimbabwe

I can’t believe he is gone &#8211; albeit decades overdue &#8211; and I find it difficult to imagine Zimbabwe without him.
If ever there is a case study for the perils of clinging too long to power in Africa, Robert Gabriel Mugabe is it; a cautionary tale for every leader trying to die in office.
If he had stepped down after his second, or even third term &#8211; about 1995, I reckon &#8211; he would have been revered in the way a true leader should. There would have been museums and archives set up his honor, an annual Mugabe lecture by the finest brains on the planet. There would have been scholarships in his name and he would have been on advisory panels along with Jimmy Carter and the rest of the world’s sage elders. Like the late president of Botswana, Ketumile Masire, who got it right after two terms, Mugabe could have sat on his farm waiting for the wise and the good to beat a path to his door seeking counsel.
Instead Mugabe spent the most of the last two years being vilified, spat at, mocked and howled down by the mob. I saw him at the World Economic Forum in May, in Durban, and it made me sick to my guts; the poor man could hardly walk let alone keep his eyes open. I blame those around him too who kept him on the throne in the interests of their paycheques.
It was a sadder sight when I compared it to the first time I interviewed Mugabe, all clipped, groomed and sharp suited at State House in Harare, way back in April 1994 with the autumn sun glinting through the window and lawnmowers humming across the carpet of green grass outside. Those were halcyon days for Mugabe, respect among his educated people &#8211; with one of the highest literacy rates in Africa &#8211; was in abundance. Any criticism of the big man was met with reproving stares.
“That is our president,” people used to say.
On this warm autumn day Mugabe was at his schoolmasterly sharpest, always ready to take advantage of any gap in knowledge.
“Who told you that?” he used to say if you really caught him out, trying to dismiss you as if you were a sixth former. Remember, if he hadn’t bid for power, liberating his country,  he could have ended his working days as a colonial headmaster.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/22/zimbabwe-beware-military-looking-interests-not-democracy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Zimbabwe beware: the military is looking after its own interests, not democracy</a>
As the years wore on I interviewed him many times and he rarely disappointed even if some of his quotes, even in the sharp days, were bizarre.
I remember a day at the Harare Book Fair, in 1995, when Mugabe went off on a rant against gays and lesbians displaying their books on the stalls. He called them the association of sodomists and sexual perverts. When he came out of the fair I asked him on camera what he had against gay people.
“I do not believe men should have children through wombs,” says Mugabe. It underlined the old man’s vehemence when he had a bee in his bonnet.
Once we dashed to an impromptu roadside speech by Mugabe to a large crowd of Zanu-PF Women&#8217;s League in Samora Machel, the main road through Harare. We arrived in a rush and my cameraman hastily set up his tripod and fiddled with the camera. All the while Mugabe was watching us out of the corner of his eye as he ranted on against gays in ChiShona, his mother tongue. As soon as the cameraman switched on and looked down the lens, Mugabe switched to English.
“Let them be gay in Europe, let them be gay in America, they will be sad people here,” says Mugabe with a dismissive wave of his arms. He knew that soundbite would fly around the world on the new wires; and it did.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/21/lessons-south-africas-jacob-zuma-robert-mugabes-misfortunes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Lessons for South Africa&#8217;s Jacob Zuma in Robert Mugabe&#8217;s misfortunes</a>
This is one reason why Mugabe survived so long, he was a wily old fox (even the cleverest foxes couldn’t have dreamed up some of the big man’s dodges) who knew how to manipulate divide and rule. Woe betide anyone who upset him. He sent a couple of my colleagues to the torture chamber and one of them died very young as a result. More than a few of his opponents disappeared and tens of thousands were killed in Matabeleland in the Gukurahundi of the early 80s.
All of this he brushed off with his trademark arrogance. One summer night, I pushed a microphone under his nose as he walked away from a state function and asked him why he was sheltering Haile Mariam Mengistu &#8211; the former president who is wanted for the deaths of many thousands of his fellow Ethiopians &#8211; who lives in luxury in Harare.
“Why can’t we give shelter to a legitimate refugee?” says Mugabe on the night. Well, Bob, there are refugees and then there are fugitives from justice.
As Mugabe walked away to his Mercedes he grumbled to one of his flunkies that it was the reason he didn’t like talking to whites (that must have been me) because they asked stupid questions. Arrogance told him that the latter was true even though the previous question was, pardon me, as true as Bob. That sense of self-importance that dates back to the days when his indulgent mother let him read books instead of herd cattle with his brothers back in his rural home in Zvimba.
Now it has all come home to roost. Everyone has turned on Mugabe: his comrades, his people and even those who worshipped him in better days. What a sad end to what could have been one of the most shining political careers in Africa. He won’t be remembered as a fox; more as a skunk.
Robert Gabriel Mugabe spent 10 years in prison, years in exile, years suffering headaches of building a new post-colonial society amid cold war politics and threats from apartheid South Africa across the border. I have one last question for him before he swans off into an uncertain retirement: Did you come so far for so little?

Bye bye Bob – did you come so far for so little?

November 2017 will go down in the history of Zimbabwe as the beginning of the end of Robert Mugabe’s <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/14/tanks-seen-heading-towards-zimbabwe-capital-harare/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">37 year tyranny</a>. A tumultuous week finally culminated in <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-42071488" target="_blank" rel="noopener">his resignation</a> on November 21st. One cannot understate the widespread jubilation at the demise of Mugabe and his desire to create a dynasty for himself <a href="https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/660122/Zimbabwe-news-Robert-Mugabe-Grace-Zanu-PF-Twitter-latest-situation-coup-Emmerson-Mnangagwa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">through his wife Grace</a>.
But the optimism is misplaced because it doesn’t deal directly with the dearth of democracy in Zimbabwe.
First, contrary to popular sentiment that the coup was meant to usher in a new era of political <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-42035981" target="_blank" rel="noopener">liberalisation and democracy</a>, the takeover is actually meant to deal with a succession crisis in Zanu-PF. The military made this clear when it said that it was dealing with <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/zimbabwe-military-statement-seizing-power-171115061457199.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">criminals around Mugabe</a>. And the party’s secretary for legal affairs Patrick Chinamasa indicated that removing Mugabe from the party’s Central Committee was an <a href="http://www.thezimbabwemail.com/politics/dont-need-opposition-zanupf-business-chinamasa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">internal party matter</a>.
Secondly, I would argue that the military resorted to a “smart coup” only after its preferred candidate to succeed Mugabe, Emmerson Mnangagwa, was fired from the party and government.
The way in which the military has gone about executing its plan upends any conventional understanding of what constitutes a coup d&#8217;etat. It’s a “smart coup” in the sense that the military combined the frustrations of a restive population, internal party structures and international sympathy to remove a sitting president. It thereby gained legitimacy for an otherwise partisan and unconstitutional political act – toppling an elected government.
This begs the question: Is the military now intervening for the collective good or for its own interests?
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/17/mnangagwa-military-may-mean-bad-news-zimbabwe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Mnangagwa and the military may mean more bad news for Zimbabwe</a>
<h2>Why the military intervened</h2>
It is baffling to imagine how the military has suddenly become the champion of democracy and regime change in Zimbabwe.
It’s clear that what motivated the military commanders was a fear of losing their jobs and influence after their preferred successor was purged. They launched a preemptive strike against Mugabe to safeguard their own selfish interests as a military class and the future of their careers.
Given the symbiotic relationship between the Zimbabwean military and the ruling Zanu-PF party, it was inevitable that the top commanders would be embroiled in the party’s succession crisis. After all, the military has been the key lever behind the power of both Mugabe and his ruling Zanu-PF since 1980.
In the past they have acted as part of the Zanu-PF machinery, openly <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2008/06/09/bullets-each-you/state-sponsored-violence-zimbabwes-march-29-elections" target="_blank" rel="noopener">campaigning for Mugabe</a> alongside other security agencies.
And they have played a key role in neutralising political opponents. Back in the 1980s the military was responsible for the massacre of thousands of civilians and Zapu supporters in <a href="https://archive.org/stream/BreakingTheSilenceBuildingTruePeace/MatabelelandReport_djvu.txt." target="_blank" rel="noopener">Matabeleland</a>. More than two decades later in 2008 they were responsible for the torture, death and disappearance of 200 opposition activists and the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/2170138/Zimbabwe-Death-toll-rises-in-Robert-Mugabes-reign-of-terror-before-election.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">maiming of hundreds more</a>.
In addition, <a href="http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/DRC%20S%202001%20357.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the UN</a> has implicated Mnangagwa and the generals in the illegal plundering of resources in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. They have also been fingered in the disappearance of diamond revenues from Zimbabwe’s Marange <a>diamond fields</a>.
On top of this the military and Zanu-PF share a special relationship that has its roots in the liberation struggle. The Zimbabwe African National Union (Zanu) was the political wing of the Zimbabwe African National Liberation Army (Zanla) during the liberation war. They therefore have vested interests in the survival of the party.
After independence, the relationship remained intact as the military became the <a href="http://bulawayo24.com/index-id-opinion-sc-columnist-byo-86814.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">guarantors of the revolution</a>. Some of the same surviving commanders of Zanla are still senior high ranking officials. The commanders are also bona fide members of the ruling party and guarantors of Zanu-PF power.
The same securocrats are also members of the Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans Association. This quasi paramilitary group is an auxiliary association of the ruling party and has fiercely opposed Mugabe’s attempt to create a dynasty.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/21/lessons-south-africas-jacob-zuma-robert-mugabes-misfortunes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Lessons for South Africa&#8217;s Jacob Zuma in Robert Mugabe&#8217;s misfortunes</a>
<h2>Military must step aside</h2>
Zimbabwe goes to the polls next July to choose a new president and parliament. The elections – if conducted in a credible way – will provide the next government with the legitimacy it needs to take the country out of its political and economic crises.
Now that Mugabe has resigned the hope is that the military will allow a genuinely democratic transition to take place. All political players, including opposition parties, would need to be incorporated into a broad-based transitional authority pending credible elections.
But for the elections to be credible, the transitional authority would need urgently to reform the electoral system. This would ensure Zimbabweans can freely and fairly choose their leaders. Without this, peace and prosperity will continue to elude Zimbabwe.
In the long run, the military would do well to get out of politics instead of continuing to view itself as “stockholders” in the country’s political affairs because of its liberation struggle credentials. &#8211; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/enock-c-mudzamiri-192098" target="_blank" rel="author noopener">Enock C. Mudzamiri</a>, DLitt et DPhil Student in Politics, University of South Africa
Originally published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>
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Zimbabwe beware: the military is looking after its own interests, not democracy

President Robert Mugabe’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-military-coup-is-afoot-in-zimbabwe-whats-next-for-the-embattled-nation-87528" target="_blank" rel="noopener">endgame</a> in Zimbabwe holds various lessons for his South African counterpart, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-south-africans-should-resist-an-amnesty-deal-for-zuma-68101" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jacob Zuma</a>, as the latter too, considers his prospects towards the end of his presidency. The first, obviously, is that while, from the pinnacle of power, a country’s president may feel the monarch of all he can survey, it is always possible that the blade of the guillotine is just around the corner.
Accordingly, it is always prudent to keep at least two bags packed for a hasty exit: one full of suit, shirts, underwear and socks, another full of foreign currency (preferably dollars or Euros). You just never know how things might pan out, so it is best to be prepared.
Following the almost-coup, Mugabe has been in a stronger position than many African dictators before him because the African Union has in recent years become a lover of democracy and a hater of coups. It therefore now demands that changes of leadership must have at least a veneer of <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/Zimbabwe/zuma-slams-unconstitutional-take-over-of-zim-20171115" target="_blank" rel="noopener">constitutionality</a>.
This has always been the Zimbabwean military’s weak point during this past week of flirting with political power. Hence its insistence that, despite its take-over of the airwaves, State House and parliament, alongside its house-arrest of the president and his family, its actions are not a coup.
In turn, this has provided Mugabe with a considerable degree of wriggle room, which he has sought to exploit to the full. Indeed, it has remained his key bargaining chip, not least because the African Union does not want to be seen as party to the overthrow of a hero of African liberation.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/20/mugabe-wont-step-grace-wont-step-says-nephew/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Mugabe won&#8217;t step down and Grace won&#8217;t step up, says nephew</a>
<h2>Explicit political actor</h2>
Zuma will feel confident that whereas in Zimbabwe the army has long been deeply involved in the ruling party’s internal affairs and the wider political arena, the South African National Defence Force is not an explicit political actor. He stands in no fear of a military coup (or even a Zimbabwe-style non-coup). Yet he does have to worry about what happens within his political party, the African National Congress (ANC).
Even if his favoured candidate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-woman-president-in-south-africa-sadly-top-contender-offers-more-of-the-same-71944" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma</a>, were to win the party leadership at the ANC’s December congress, Zuma’s continuing as South African President might be seen as a political embarrassment. If strong contender <a href="https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1643579/zumas-popularity-slides-again-ramaphosa-favourite-to-lead-anc-survey/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cyril Ramaphosa</a> wins, even more urgent calls will be made from within the ANC for the him to be “recalled” because he will be viewed as an electoral liability.
It is a fair bet that, whoever wins, an excuse will be made for a delegation from the party leadership to visit the president and to ask him to stand down. Just ask former <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2008-09-20-anc-recalls-mbeki" target="_blank" rel="noopener">President Thabo Mbeki</a> who was fired by his own ANC. If Zuma refuses to cooperate, then the ANC might turn to parliament, where enough ANC MPs might feel emboldened to vote with the opposition to dethrone him.
<h2>Fighting for survival</h2>
Like Mugabe, Zuma will be battling for a dignified exit. Even more urgently, he will be fighting for survival. In previous years, Mugabe may have feared the prospect of retribution for his sins, and would have been determined to secure immunity from prosecution.
Now, at 93, he is confident that once out of office he will be left in peace. He may or may not appreciate the irony that, unlike his country’s last white ruler Ian Smith, he will not be able to stay in Zimbabwe after he has been forced to stand down, but he will know that he has to leave.
Neither the army nor Zanu-PF will want him hanging around, fearing his ability to continue pulling strings. So off he must go, to South Africa, Dubai or Singapore (anywhere with a few decent shops for his shopaholic wife Grace). His major immediate concern then, we may presume, is safe passage and immunity for his family. We may further presume, that there is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/17/robert-grace-mugabe-missing-millions-money-zimababwe" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a lot of money</a> stashed away in foreign bank accounts to keep the crocodile from the door.
<h2>Zuma’s tricky position</h2>
Zuma is differently placed. If he loses the Presidency he stands in all sorts of dangers, not least of which is prosecution for past financial crimes and the prospect of his ending his days in prison. In other words, he has much more to bargain for, and he will be doing so from a considerably weaker position. Not least of his problems is that he is a lot younger than Mugabe, so could spend quite a few years in jail.
Zuma’s major strength is that, whoever wins the party leadership, the ANC will probably want to grant him immunity and get him out of the way, as otherwise they face the prospect of their former leader facing a corruption trial during the lead up to elections in 2019.
But for a start, there is no provision for presidential immunity in the constitution, and its grant would face a strong challenge in the courts. Furthermore, if the Guptas or other Zuma allies in the project of “<a href="https://theconversation.com/zuma-and-anc-run-out-of-road-as-bad-news-piles-up-68197" target="_blank" rel="noopener">state capture</a>” were to be prosecuted, Zuma could face being dragged into court as a witness.
In short, Zuma will realise that it will make sense to hot-foot it out of the country, preferably to a comfortably authoritarian country which will turn down requests for extradition.
<h2>The fickle people</h2>
What Mugabe is learning now, and it is something of which Zuma should take good note, is that the people are an ungrateful lot, and are likely to turn against you just when you most need their support. Up &#8217;til a week ago, it was presumed that Mugabe retained the backing of all who mattered in Zanu-PF and that he would again be its candidate for president at the next election. But now, like many a dictator, he is having to learn fast that the people no longer love him.
Past allies, like the war veterans, had already turned against him, repudiating his apparent bid for his wayward wife, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/27/zimbabwe-first-lady-grace-robert-mugabe-successor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Grace</a>, to replace him. Zanu-PF Youth leader, <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/africa/2017-11-16-watch--from-die-for-mugabe-to-fawning-apology-zanu-pf-youth/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kudzai Chipanga</a>, initially declared his willingness to “die for Mugabe” and labelled Major-General Constantino Chiwenga, the leader of the non-coup, a traitor when the army first intervened. After being locked up, he shamefacedly read out an abject apology, begging forgiveness, and pleading the inexperience of youth.
This has been followed by all 10 provincial organisations of Zanu-PF calling for Mugabe to go, and even encouraging ordinary people to join the marches being organised by opposition parties and civil society demanding his dismissal.
Zuma is too wily a politician not to know that once he loses the party presidency, his support base will drain away, and that he will become known as yesterday’s man. Yet like Mugabe, he will take comfort from the regional body, the Southern African Development Community (SADC), for there is nothing his fellow presidents dread more than the prospect of any one of their number facing impeachment.
He will also know that, unlike Mbeki, whose stature in Africa remains high, he has no viable future as a roving ex-president. Zuma will know that if he wants to enjoy his retirement in peace, he has to leave South Africa before he gets tangled up in court proceedings.
His best option will be to grab those two suitcases, make a hasty exit and move in next door to Bob and Grace in Dubai. &#8211; Written by <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/roger-southall-296862" target="_blank" rel="author noopener">Roger Southall</a>, Professor of Sociology, University of the Witwatersrand
Originally published in <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>
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Lessons for South Africa’s Jacob Zuma in Robert Mugabe’s misfortunes

President Robert Mugabe’s nephew and cabinet minister, who is hiding in fear of his life in South Africa, has said the 93-year-old head of state will not step down because of the letter of the Constitution, despite a military takeover and massed marches against him in Harare. He also claims Grace Mugabe has no interest in becoming president.
Patrick Zhuwawo, who has been Minister of Public Services and Social Welfare for the last two years, is the son of Mugabe’s sister Sabina, who died in 2010. He is said to be one of the supporter of his aunt’s bid to succeed Mugabe, although he denies this.
Zhuwawo had been in Buenos Aires, Argentina, attending a conference on child labor, when the military went in. As he checked in for a flight home at OR Tambo International Airport, in Johannesburg, he took a call from his family in Harare begging him to stay put.
“They told me that my house had been vandalized and I was on a wanted list. The also informed me that a number of people had died in this illegal coup and more than 200 were in detention,” says Zhuwawo.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/17/mnangagwa-military-may-mean-bad-news-zimbabwe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: Mnangagwa and the military may mean more bad news for Zimbabwe</a>
When will President Mugabe step down? I said, asking the question on everyone’s lips on the day as thousands marched in Harare calling from him to go.
“Because he has a mandate given to him by an electoral process. More importantly stepping down because of a coup is dangerous, it is evil we can never allow military weapons to determine democratic processes… he is not going to step down,” says Zhuwawo.
“This coup is now being window dressed to look like a popular uprising.”
Zhuwawo claims that military chiefs are using protestors to cover what he alleges is looting from multi-million-dollar agricultural funds.
<a href="http://www.forbesafrica.com/politics/2017/11/16/whats-next-embattled-zimbabwe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">READ MORE: What next for embattled Zimbabwe?</a>
Zhuwawo also claimed he was not a member of the so-called G40 group of young MPs backing his aunt Grace to succeed his uncle.
“No, that is not the issue and she has no intention of being the next president. The people of Zimbabwe must choose the next president,” he says.
What about President Mugabe’s age and infirmity. When I saw him at the <a href="https://www.forbesafrica.com/focus/2017/06/01/the-pain-of-mugabe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">World Economic Forum in Durban in May he moved painfully</a> – isn’t it time, I asked?
“One of the things in our constitution is that there must be no discrimination on race or sex or age&#8230; If you were Zimbabwean you are breaking the Constitution … What we do not want to go back to is the day of Nazi Germany when they were euthanizing old people,” he says.
After 37 years in power, the last 20  presiding over a crumbling economy, surely Mugabe and his comrades had failed and should go anyway to make way for new ideas?
“You will not divert me here, I am talking about a coup,” he says.
If only Mugabe, Zhuwawo and company had diverted the economy towards growth and prosperity 20 years ago there may not be tanks and protestors on the streets now.

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