What do Uber, Netflix and TikTok have in common?



It’s one word.



And working out how to remove it will become the most important strategic discussion for CEOs across the globe in the coming years.



It should already be the most important word.



And that word is friction.



The companies I named at the start are all early examples of how you can have global success by removing friction from your customer’s lives.



Uber, for example, removes friction by making it much easier and faster to pick up a ride than the metered taxi model it replaced.



Netflix removes friction by delivering quality, binge- able content without delaying consumer gratification with adverts or timetables.



And TikTok takes it to another level by removing the friction of viewers needing to spend time choosing what to watch. Its algorithm calculates what people want based on how they interact with the app. In fact, the more you think about it, the more obvious it becomes that the best companies are masters at removing friction. Google (frictionless search), Wise (frictionless  cross- border payments) and Amazon (frictionless shopping) are just three more examples.



On the other hand, the brands we love to hate are the ones that waste our most precious asset. Time.



For example, don’t you get frustrated with the excessive form-filling when hiring a car, queueing at a bank branch, or holding for a call center agent?



I know I do.



Fortunately, this is all about to change, and companies that have clung on to life like limpets despite wasting millions of hours of their customers’ lives will have to adapt to survive because of the widespread adoption of large language models, like ChatGPT.



Take the example of Klarna, a leading global payments and shopping service.



On February 27 2024, they announced that their new AI assistant had handled two-thirds of customer chats in its first month. That’s the equivalent workload of 700 full-time agents, which equates to an estimated



$40-million improvement in their bottom line. They went on to say that the AI agents were on par with customer satisfaction scores, were more accurate in errand resolution (leading to a 25% drop in repeat inquiries) and were able to resolve queries in less than two minutes, compared to the previous 11.



You don’t have to be a call center expert to understand that these are just staggering improvements which showcase the potential of moving from human to artificial intelligence. And you have to remember that this is version 0.1, and we should expect exponential improvements over the next few years.



In fact, the idea that a machine will be able to better communicate with humans in a more personalized, knowledgeable, and empathetic manner is no longer just science fiction. It’s fast becoming a science fact. 



Having just spent a wasted hour on the phone with my internet service provider, I can’t wait. I would pay extra to be able to deal with a bot that listens to my problems, understands my history, is able to take decisions without escalating, can respond not just in my language but in my accent or dialect and is able to pick up on any number of visual and audio queues to better understand me and make me feel valued and appreciated. Perhaps even loved.



And if this leads to hours-long call times because customers feel compelled to share their personal trials and tribulations, why not?



After all, our buying decisions are based on emotions, and who better to exploit that than a machine?



Because unlike human agents, the virtual kind are available 24/7 in every single corner of the globe and they know more about us than any human ever can.



These are not just my fantasies. The markets agree. When Klarna shared its AI successes, it was reported that a leading traditional call center company saw its share price drop in just one day.



CEOs now have no choice but to switch their investments from human to artificial intelligence to provide frictionless services.



The benefits for investors and customers are clear. It’s equally obvious that the millions of knowledge workers who operate today’s phones will have to find new vocations, and they will have to find them fast.



Which begs one big question. Do we really want a frictionless world if the cost is that human capital becomes worthless

TikTok To Be Banned From UK Government Phones

Remove This To Win, But Beware Of The Consequences

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True power is living the realization that you are your own healer, hero, leader.” – quoted by Diego Perez
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Indeed, success has always been built on that simple principle. The African story of the recent past has belied that. This needs to be regained and reinforced.



I was in Lusaka some weeks ago attending the launch of the Lobito Corridor project; an ambitious rail line brought together for deliverance by the mighty United States (U.S.), the beleaguered European Union, three ambitious African nations and two of Africa’s premier institutions, the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) and African Development Bank (AfDB).



They unveiled plans to link the copper-rich regions of Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the Angolan port of Lobito. A corridor replete with hopes. A smooth trade route from the world’s richest copper belt to the Atlantic Ocean to facilitate the transportation essential in the region, fostering business and trade.



This is in perfect harmony with Washington’s increased soft-power strategy reflecting a broader geopolitical intent to strengthen ties with Africa.



Not that this is altruistic though. The global clean energy transition requires significant amounts of critical minerals vital to the manufacturing of solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicles, batteries etc. And they are crucially essential in several applications of the defence, ICT and pharmaceutical industries.



Add to that the U.S.’s Inflation Reduction Act and the pressure to bring manufacturing back to American shores.



To make America great again will need raw materials from across the Atlantic. Interestingly, the accelerated pace of the transition will require six times more mineral inputs by 2040.



But the net-zero objectives of the Global North will not be achieved without Africa’s green minerals.



Africa holds substantial reserves  of bauxite, chromium, cobalt, copper, gold, iron, lithium, manganese, platinum, uranium and more.



Thus, the great race ahead; strap on your belts for the ride.



Yet, China’s present dominance is all-pervading at the moment; positioned as they are with its longer history and sheer size of investments in the core sectors in Africa.



Overall, China has spent more than a trillion dollars in projects to secure the supply of key resources.



Therein lies the ‘once-in-a- lifetime’ opportunity.



Usually, when elephants fight, the grass suffers.



This time around, the African savannah holds the strings to the entertainment ahead.



For African leaders, the question is less about the U.S. or China but more about what Africa can negotiate out of its resource advantage.



Africa must capitalize on its mineral endowments to drive transformative sustainable growth, economic diversification, and local and regional development through value-added processing and manufacturing; it must optimize the resource value to underpin productive transformation, integration into global trade systems and development of local industries.



Sustainable mining as a catalyst for the local procurement of goods and services, the shared use of infrastructure as well as an anchor for renewable energy development is a fair aspiration.



Yet it is crucial to ensure that all this does not come at the detriment of African communities, bearing the brunt of vested interests, pollution, and environmental damage.



A substantial amount of critical minerals is to be found in areas of rich biodiversity, fragility, and conflict, as well as lands traditionally belonging to indigenous peoples.



But events have conspired in Africa’s favor.



We hold the key to solving significant global challenges.



Hence, we should be agnostic and seek partners that will drive our economic objectives as equals in the global fight for equity and prosperity.



African institutions such as the AFC are at the forefront of embedding these priorities into policies.



The continued success will hinge on: a) balancing the criticality of access to mineral resources with the African perspective on environmental and social risks; b) improved infrastructure for local value addition, refining, processing, and developing local downstream industries; and c) inspiring international cooperation to shift from historically-exploitive, extractive and export-driven models into sustainable investments, technology transfer, capacity-building and financing models that lift the continent meaningfully.



If mining fails to be a catalyst for sustainable development supporting renewable power generation, local procurement and infrastructure, we will have failed.



The Lobito Corridor promises to be that potent example where the corridors of power ensured that it’s not another rail line to transport our riches but will enrich us, the people on the continent, in its wake. And thus, help to solve the world’s problems while serving its own people.



Diplomacy and negotiations change. All of that needs the ‘self-belief’ that it’s our tryst with our destiny and we have to run with it ourselves.

ELECTRIC VEHICLES CONGO MINING COBALT

Digging Deep: Why Africa Must Capitalize On Its Mineral Endowments

Feedback from the Davos meetings of the World Economic Forum (WEF) has always been useful. Historically, the discussions with world leaders, both political and corporate, provide insight into what is expected in the year ahead. The post-event mood after the meetings was generally vibrant but 2024 was a departure from the past. Is it because WEF is losing its luster or because world leaders did not want to face the tough questions that were expected at Davos? Geopolitically, it was a disaster, as several world leaders were missing from the January 2024 WEF meetings; France’s Emmanuel Macron was the only leader from the G7 countries. Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Rishi Sunak and many other leaders were conspicuous by their absence. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was present for a special address. The Russians were missing and so were their oligarch parties that are part of the pomp and show during Davos.


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Africa has been gaining in prominence at the WEF meetings and delegations from South Africa, Rwanda, Ghana and a few other countries continue to be torchbearers for the continent. Some inter-esting debates on technology, AI and the challenges of the future were thought-provoking this year but to a large part, there was nothing to write home about. In 2018, Dr Akinwumi Adesina, President of the African Development Bank, along with several other multilaterals, founded the Africa Investment Forum as an alternative to WEF Davos. The vision was to move away from talk and politics to a platform for action. For African countries, this platform is far more valuable than the money that gets spent in participating in Davos. The outcomes are measurable and are focused on Africa and our leaders need to focus on answers relating to the African continent and not be bystanders to the deafening silence at a global platform.



The unanswered and embarrassing questions before world leaders include, but are not limited to, the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and climate change. The issue of Ukraine will remain unsolved as long as the West continues to fuel and fight a proxy war against Russia. Although, the United States’ (U.S.) Repub-lican party has reportedly applied some brakes to the funding of the war, there is relentless hysteria being stirred regarding Russia’s aggression and intent to start similar campaigns along other parts of its border. Finland and Sweden are the most recent additions to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) which now has 32 members.



We can only speculate that despite any adjectives that have been used to describe Putin, one thing that he most certainly is not, is a fool who would even, in all his arrogance, think that Russia could take on the collective might of NATO in a conventional war. Looking purely at data that is in the public domain, Russia has 40% of the ground troops, 20% of aircraft and 28% of the naval power of NATO. This is a disincentive for Russia to go to war with any NATO country. Where Russia has a distinct advantage is in nuclear capability and this should not be taken lightly. Putin has made his intention clear; if NATO gets involved or pushes his hand, he has limited choices.



When Ukraine began its quest for membership to NATO, Russia warned them not to do so for reasons that are known to the whole world. None of the superpowers want their cold war enemies setting up bases near their borders. What would the U.S. do if Russia were to set up a base in Mexico? The Cuban missile crisis of 1962 almost brought about a nuclear war when the U.S. found out about the Soviet Union’s plans to establish nuclear weapons in Cuba.



History has taught us many lessons and self-preservation is an adequate motivation for nations to act in self-interest. The only way fighting between neighbors can come to an end is if the two (with the help of affected and interested neighbors) sit down to talk. This can only happen if NATO countries take a step back to stop fueling the war through money and weapons, stop expand- ing NATO and ask Russia to stop any further aggression. By now, Putin would also have understood that continuing this conflict is not sustainable, even for Russia.



The discussion on Ukraine is not complete without acknowl- edging the growing conflicts of interest. Other than in supplying weapons, Western countries, mainly the U.S., have significant economic interests in Ukraine, most of all in securing agricultural capacity for all times to come. Several major multinational corporations owned and controlled by some of the largest U.S. financial institutions are alleged to be the beneficiaries of privatization and concessions in Ukraine. Unfortunately, as the media continues to report on the horrific consequences of war, there is silence on the conflict of economic interest that will continue to catalyze the war.



We are also facing a major crisis in Gaza. It has been six months since the attack carried out by Hamas against Israel on October 7 2023. I do not believe that there is any human being with a soul who will condone the killing and suffering of innocent women and children at the scale that is going on in the war between Israel and Hamas. This time around, the U.S. is supporting Israel and has time and again blocked any move made at the United Nations Security Council calling for a stop to the bloodshed. What is going on in Gaza will have far greater consequences for the world than the war in Ukraine. The world is likely to get more and more polarized and instead of progressing forward and making the world a better place, there is going to be more hate and regression.



In the last two years, these two conflicts have cost the world far more than any other recent crisis. Some Pentagon sources have quoted that the direct cost of the war for Russia in Ukraine, to date, has been more than $210 billion. This does not include the economic loss to the world in the form of price escalation, the slowing down of economic activity and the setting up of duplicate and expensive supply chains. Financial weekly newspaper Barron’s has quoted Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) sources projecting the global cost of lost output in excess of $2.8 trillion. WEF sources quote figures for the destruction in Ukraine to be between $400 billion and $1 trillion. The German online platform Statista has projected that it will conservatively cost about $410 billion to rebuild Ukraine. These are numbers that for the common man mean very little, other than point to an alarming fact that people in Ukraine will stay below poverty levels for a long, long time. Imagine if this money was poured into developing countries to help them with infrastructure, education, healthcare, energy transformation, agriculture, water and food security.



Agriculture and food production in Africa needs to be catalyzed on a war footing. There is a lot of land in Africa that is currently been bought and/or being leased by multinationals with a view to creating clusters to export agricultural products. There needs to be scrutiny by the African Union and African multilaterals on how to manage the needs of African nations. Why export food when there are so many nations in Africa that continue to import food products? We need compelling incentives for Africans and African-owned companies to grow the agricultural base in Africa.



My favorite activity after the end of a long day at work has always been to watch local and international news networks and catch up on current affairs. In the last few months, my interest has largely been in catching up with elections in different parts of the world. With more than two billion people going to the ballot in over 50 countries this year, a lot of interesting discussions are going to take place on the future of many countries and on geopolitics in general.



Talking about elections; the U.S. elections have always been of interest. It took me a long time to somewhat understand the elections system. It was always interesting to watch the primaries, Super Tuesdays and town hall debates: a seemingly well-structured election system to finally select leading candidates for the Republicans and Democrats who then battle in a final contest for a winner-takes-all. This year has been with mixed emotions but mainly disappointment. I was 13 years old when the Watergate scandal broke in 1972.



We used to hear the news on the radio for updates on the case leading to Richard Nixon’s resignation; the only president in U.S. history to resign, although three others have been formally impeached.



These blemishes aside, one has looked up to the leadership in the U.S.; Barack Obama was my most recent favorite. We are not to judge who Americans choose to lead them but for a country with over 340 million people, I most certainly think that there is enough talent to bring in younger, smarter and less-conflicted individuals to lead the most powerful country in the world.



The sitcoms will continue for the rest of 2024 but sadly, the fate of the world in many ways will rest on the decisions made by Americans this year.



I am ending this piece on a sad note; it’s a personal loss. My business partner of over 20 years, Zafar Siddiqi, passed away at the end of February. We take a lot of things in life for granted; life is one of them. We just believe that what happens to others will not happen to us. Death pauses us when it happens close to home. Each of us rely on familiar faces (personally and professionally) when we have moments of triumph or periods of uncertainty. Coming home after his burial, I was left with the sad real- ity that the face I was so accustomed to turn towards, for over two decades, will only smile from a picture in my office. We both have been through some of the biggest challenges setting up our media and education businesses; one thing we mutually agreed on was to never give up. We put our faith, our blood, sweat and tears into these dreams and built them one brick and one day at a time. Today, we have the best teams and people around us, but the loss is of someone who shared my pain each day of this journey. Rest in peace, dear Zafar.

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From WEF To War To Polls And Politics, An Interesting Year For The World

Lauded as the key to Africa’s economic fortunes, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has been met with much excitement. Indeed, this area holds great economic promise for the continent but there are some glaring gaps that require consideration – particularly from a social dimension. Established in 2018 by the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, AfCFTA entails the creation of a consolidated marketplace for goods and services throughout the African continent. 



According to a 2022 World Bank report, this agreement could generate vast economic benefits, embracing 1.3 billion people and a combined GDP of $3.4 trillion. If fully implemented, the agreement is expected to increase income by 9% by 2035 and help uplift 50 million individuals from extreme poverty. It aims to boost intra-African trade, promote industrialization, foster economic diversification, and ultimately lead to increased economic growth and job creation. As the agreement outlines, this integration will be strengthened and underpinned by allowing the free movement of individuals across the continent.



Yet, there has been little consideration of the impact of this movement on social security, an important policy tool that addresses socio-economic challenges, contributes to long-term development, and promotes a more equitable and resilient society. 



In Africa, particularly, its impact cannot be overlooked.



Without the necessary safeguards in place, the AfCFTA exists as nothing more than a romantic ideal. Intra-African migration has increased by 30% in the last decade and is on an upward trajectory. However, existing systems may find themselves under strain as demographics shift and the demand for services and support transcends traditional geographical boundaries under AfCFTA. As it stands with current policies, African migrant workers and their families may lose their social security benefits when they return to their home nations because these benefits are often limited to specific territories. 



Compounding these concerns is the limited scope of social security coverage on the continent. According to the International Labour Organization’s (ILO) World Social Protection Report, only 17.4% of the population in Africa receives at least one social protection benefit compared to 46.9% globally. This low level of access to social protection is attributed to the labor market structure on the continent and limited domestic resources allocated to social protection. As AfCFTA takes hold, there is a need for social security coordination to expand social protection coverage, especially for migrant workers and their families.



There are some considerations. First, it should guarantee the equal treatment of all workers in order to prevent unfair discrimination against migrant workers. Second, it must consider all elements of a worker’s career to ensure comprehensive insurance coverage and the determination of benefits. Third, there should be a recognition that residency, employment, or economic activity in one state allows for the acquired rights and benefits to be upheld in another state. 



Fourth, the applicable laws should be established to prevent double benefits or double obligation to contribute towards a social security scheme. Fifth, these efforts must make social security benefits transferable or exportable by reducing restrictions on the payment of benefits and receipt of services when workers reside in a different country. In this regard, African countries should adopt crucial policy measures to develop the social dimension of this area by ratifying and implementing the existing ILO conventions and recommendations regarding migration and social security. 



The equality of treatment, among other principles and standards, should be incorporated into domestic law. Moreover, African countries must also conclude social security agreements to coordinate and ensure the portability of social security rights and benefits. In this regard, bilateral labor arrangements or Memorandums of Understanding (MoU) should include social security provisions. Additionally, unilateral measures developed by sending and receiving countries must be taken, such as the inclusion of national social protection floors. Beyond social security, the social dimension should include initiatives that address practical obstacles to the AfCFTA, such as language barriers, xenophobia, exorbitant cross-border remittance fees, and lack of information and awareness.



As researcher and postdoctoral fellow Balkissa Diallo argues, “For the true elimination of trade barriers, AfCFTA efforts must embed the facilitation of African migration into their structures — and also consider existing dynamics that prevent this from happening.”



If AfCFTA has any real hope of succeeding, it must also integrate with society beyond the economic policies and trade agreements.

Safaricom Plc Headquarters and Kiosks Ahead of Earnings

Developing Further The Social Dimension Of The African Continental Free Trade Area

Five years ago, I couldn’t imagine asking boards and business leaders whether robots would one day run their companies.



However, the massive increase in awareness of the potential of large language models is forcing executives to explore how to use robots and artificial intelligence in day-to-day decision-making.



In fact, the rise of executive robots has already started.



For example, in May 2023, Forbes reported that Dictador, a progressive premium brand rum distiller, had appointed an AI CEO called Mika.



It is gimmicky for sure, as humans are still very much controlling her AI strings, but as Mika reportedly said in an interview with Reuters, “My decision-making process relies on extensive data analysis and aligning with the company’s strategic objectives.” She went on to explain how she was devoid of personal bias, which helps ensure that strategic choices are prioritized in line with the organization’s best interests, not hers.



This sounds amazing. So, is Mika the forerunner of the mass adoption of AI for corporate governance and leadership roles?



For once, the likely answer is yes, absolutely.



For starters, the demand for a solution like this is apparent.



Humans regularly make bad decisions, and more often than not, this leads to someone losing a lot of money.



Why, for example, did OpenAI’s board sack Sam Altmann (before he returned as CEO in November last year)?



What led Elon Musk to rebrand Twitter to X?



And why didn’t Silicon Valley Bank diversify its risk away from startups?



Decisions like these wipe out trillions of dollars of value every single year. And these three examples are just the tip of the iceberg.



Further, those impacted aren’t just the super-wealthy. Often, it’s the poorest who see their life savings and pensions hit hardest.



All of which means there is a huge interest from everyone, from governments to investors, to find ways to improve decision- making and corporate governance.



We already spend billions of dollars for consultants and business schools to develop leaders and models to help companies maximize profits while minimizing risks.



But these billions will quickly switch to AI alternatives if there is even the smallest of probabilities that technology will help improve a stock’s potential returns.



So, the demand is there.



But how long will we have to wait for the likes of the already hugely-impressive ChatGPT to offer intelligence that can not only answer questions in narrow fields but actually analyze data from multiple sources, draw inferences, consider interdependencies, develop execution plans, draw up funding requirements, consider resource allocations, raise funding and build support along with all the other tasks and activities that are required in any modern-day business?



Mustafa Suleyman, founder of DeepMind and Inflection.AI, explores this question in his recent bestseller, The Coming Wave.



Specifically, he asks how long it will be before machines answer and act on prompts such as “Please design and execute a strategy that will allow me to make $1mill on Amazon in as few months as possible with just $100K of investment.”



His conclusion? “Aside from the legal requirements of registering as a business on the marketplace and getting a bank account, all of this seems to me eminently doable. I think it will be done within the next year and probably fully autonomously within three to five.”



When an industry insider as respected as Suleyman makes a comment like this, we should sit up and listen.



And it makes absolute sense when you consider that a potent combination of factors is driving development in AI. Breakthroughs in machine learning algorithms, dramatic increases in computing power, the abundance of extensive data sets, advancements in cloud computing, enhanced global connectivity, escalating demand across industries and the democratization of access through open-source initiatives are just some of the factors propelling it at exponential rates.



And, of course, the biggest factor of all is perhaps the simple fact that we are now using AI to build AI, as more and more code is being written by machines, not developers. So perhaps the real question isn’t whether or even when robots will run companies. Shareholders and boards might do better considering what types of leaders they need to employ to manage the transition from human to augmented to algorithmic leadership. This is not an easy question to answer. There is no template for designing leadership systems for robots. Perhaps ChatGPT has the answer?

Robot working at desk, 3D Rendering

Expert-Speak: Will Robots Run Companies?

In 1849, Jean-Baptiste wrote “plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose” – “The more things change, the more they stay the same.” 



Apparently, turbulence doesn’t change reality but embeds it. I don’t agree when I see what’s happening in Africa today. 



A continent long battered and bruised by exogenous factors, now battling climate, the new enemy.



Emissions are shamelessly borderless yet all pervading.



Rivers are running dry, crop patterns are changing and erosion is destroying livelihoods in Africa, despite our near-zero contribution to global warming. For an already beleaguered continent, the specter of ensuing hunger and famine could be a death knell.



Adapting Africa’s food systems to climate change is imperative as a rise by 2 degrees celsius will profoundly affect African food security. And remember that almost $100 billion is spent on food imports currently.



The import bill gets worse with wars and geopolitics that make prices soar making it unaffordable to many. Remarkably, more than 50% of food imports is by the Big 5: Morocco, Egypt, Algeria, South Africa, and Nigeria.



Large, well-endowed countries are the worst offenders. Worryingly, imports are basic necessities like grain, sugar, and other staples thus underlining the frightening fragility of food security.



Already one in five Africans go to bed hungry.



But this is a continent that is home to 60% of the world’s arable land. Data now shows that barring the Big 5 countries, the smaller ones are actually becoming net exporters of food.



Challenges exist of course: 30% to 40% is added to the cost of goods traded between African countries because of poor infrastructure. In Madagascar, the erstwhile road to the Alaotra-Mangoro region stunted agricultural productivity.



But now a new road has reduced travel time from eight hours to three.



Farmers are thrilled to see an increase in their margins as they reduce their losses.



Sadly, however, the agricultural value per farmworker in sub- Saharan Africa is still only $1,526 while in the United States, it exceeds $100,000. Heartwarming stories of resilience, adaptation and innovation exist, and it means this will improve.



Panuka Farms in Zambia modernized its cold storage and switched to greenhouse cultivation. This reduced food losses and climate-proofed production.



They now supply high-value vegetables such as English cucumber and replaced imported fresh produce to local retailers. New jobs were created as recent graduates now manage the farm.



In Lesotho, Happy C&amp;J Village Farm added a borehole and drip irrigation to directly water individual plants rather than casting spray over a large area. The process conserves soil nutrients and minimizes water waste.



Plastic tunneling protects lettuce, cabbage, tomato, and potato from hail. Thus, crops are grown throughout the year despite the increases in climate change leading to hailstorms and chilly weather.



Scaling up climate-smart practices, strengthening research and seed systems, support from agro-meteorological studies is in vogue for better crop management.



A moot point, however, is how agricultural subsidies in developed countries and intra-Africa tax on food products still unfortunately affect African production.



A population of a billion-plus, forecasted to be two billion, will, therefore, not sit idle. Mouths to feed and poverty will be fertile land for social unrest and untold human suffering otherwise.



Technology is crucial and transference of global knowhow an imperative. Market integration through improved intra-Africa infrastructure, regional cooperation and policy level-support are gradually forthcoming.



Institutions like the Africa Finance Corporation are at the forefront of initiating, developing, and investing in local value-addbased industries, and provide financing and logistics support to enhance export earnings and employment.



Necessity is the mother of all invention.



The African continent is not a basket case. Countless crises, conflicts and catastrophes have been encountered and managed on the continent. We are tough when the going gets tough.



When the world writes us off, we typically rise and survive.



Food self-sufficiency is a paramount condition to growth. It will be our biggest export as well. Let’s make our own granary and then for the world.



We owe it to all humanity

Paul Manga, a subsistence farmer, gathers his withered maize

Food For Thought…Africa Is Not a Basket Case

As we progress further into 2024, a year guaranteed to be full of complexities and uncertainties, the heightened demand for genuine expertise to guide us through our challenges will become more important than ever.



The dilemma we face is that too many people are in a rush to claim their expertise, making it increasingly difficult to discern genuine or real experts from those who are still learning the ropes.



In today’s era of digital self- promotion and personal branding, the term “expert” is thrown around like confetti at a wedding celebration raising the question: do all those who lay claim to the title genuinely warrant it?



So-called experts are everywhere. Individuals self- assign this once prestigious title along with others like coach, consultant, and specialist to impress others, attract fresh business prospects, gain speaking opportunities, or boost their book sales.



A novice cook who decides to share a few recipes on a blog declares himself a culinary expert. A traveler who describes his own limited experiences on a social media platform promotes himself as a world travel consultant.



A person who successfully quits smoking for a few months positions herself as a “quit smoking coach”.



There’s also the individual who completes a coding bootcamp and subsequently calls herself a software development guru, the parent who has raised four children who markets himself as a parenting expert, and the former manager who proudly identifies as a management specialist.



And in the age of social media, many individuals with modest followings or experience in online marketing present themselves as digital marketing gurus. They may offer expert advice on growing one’s online presence, yet that expertise often lacks a solid track record of successfully driving results for clients.



Perhaps even more common are individuals who have made their own personal fitness transformations who brand themselves as fitness experts.



While their dedication to personal fitness is commendable, true fitness or coaching expertise involves a deep understanding of physiology, nutrition, and personalized training plans.



It seems that the whole idea of being an expert doesn’t necessarily mean you’ve dedicated your life to mastering something these days. It’s more like a jacket you can throw on, and it seems like anyone with a tiny bit of knowledge can wear it.



Put simply, being an expert has become a trendy label, applied to anyone with a hint of knowledge.



So if you need the services of a true expert, and you want to gauge the extent of an individual’s expertise, what might you look for?



True expertise isn’t simply being one step ahead of your neighbors on a particular topic. It’s about knowing more than most people in a particular field.



Becoming an expert usually requires substantial education or training, thousands of hours of practice, and a deep understanding of the subject.



And true experts continually learn to stay updated in their field.



Some also regard experts to be those individuals who not only have extensive knowledge and experience in a particular area – but who are also effective communicators who can explain complex concepts to others, making their knowledge accessible and understandable. For those seeking to become experts there are also some considerations.



While, the internet often promotes the notion of instant expertise, genuine greatness is a product of ongoing effort and unwavering commitment.



It means that those on the path to becoming experts must resist the urge to assert their authority prematurely.



It’s also important to recognize that true authority should be conferred upon them by others who recognize their expertise rather than being self-proclaimed. None of us get to call ourselves experts. It’s a term best applied by others to describe an individual’s accomplishments and expertise.



In other words, you can’t claim the expert title yourself. Only when others label you an expert, does it become a reality.



As we start a brand-new year full of challenges, issues, and opportunities, we don’t need more experts but we do need more apprentices or those willing to take the time to develop expertise. If you are finding yourself in need of guidance or expertise, look out for those who embody the principles of unwavering dedication, continuous learning, and a proven track record.



In a world awash with self-proclaimed experts, let’s champion those who have truly earned their stripes, and in doing so, let us collectively raise the standard for what it means to be an expert in 2024.

Businessman Signing Digital Contract On Tablet

Raising The Bar For What It Means To Be An Expert In 2024

Artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a revolutionary tool, reshaping industries, streamlining processes, and improving decision-making. The success of AI is because we now have access to more data, and we possess adequate computational infrastructure to analyze such data. AI has enormous potential in the legal field, promising to transform how legal practitioners function and individuals access the justice system. 



However, this potential is not devoid of ethical concerns and obstacles.



The function of AI in the legal domain is diverse. AIdriven research tools can rapidly analyze extensive legal databases, furnishing attorneys with insights in a previously unattainable manner. It entails the utilization of chatbots and virtual assistants to provide individuals with legal guidance, thereby enhancing the accessibility of legal information. 



AI saves time and money when producing legal documents using document automation tools.



Predictive analytics can predict legal outcomes, enabling litigants and attorneys to make well-informed decisions. Online dispute resolution platforms provide a viable substitute for conventional litigation, enhancing the efficiency and accessibility of dispute resolution. Nevertheless, as AI gains prominence in law, we must exercise caution and remain vigilant regarding the obstacles to this revolutionary technology.



The first such obstacle is the fairness and bias of AI systems, which are potential sources of concern. Algorithms for machine learning are trained using historical data, which may contain societal biases. AI could perpetuate and even exacerbate preexisting discrimination in the legal system if these prejudices are not addressed. AI development must prioritize fairness and equity, necessitating ongoing vigilance to identify and address bias in AI applications. Secondly, the opaqueness of AI decisionmaking processes raises concerns regarding transparency and accountability. In legal contexts, individuals have a right to be informed of the reasoning behind decisions made by AI systems.



Legal experts and technologists must collaborate to guarantee the transparency of AI systems and allow individuals to contest AI-generated outcomes. However, AI technology is lagging, and AI systems are subjected to the accuracy-transparency dilemma, whereby the more accurate the AI model, the less transparent it is, and vice versa. This is because the high accuracy of the AI model correlates to the increased complexity of the model. Furthermore, the more complex the AI model, the more accurate it is, but this results in reduced transparency of the model.



Thirdly, there is the problem of the security and privacy of individuals. Legal issues frequently necessitate the use of confidential personal data. Implementing robust data protection measures to secure individuals’ rights and privacy is critical.



Legal professionals must thoroughly contemplate the ethical and legal ramifications and enforce rigorous data security protocols when dealing with personal data. This requires technology, which is not necessarily available in many African countries. The African Union (AU) must ensure that groups of countries jointly procure such technologies to reduce the burden of the cost of this technology.



Furthermore, we must train enough people to deploy such technologies. Fourth, as AI’s capacity for legal research and document automation expands, concerns may arise regarding the potential displacement of legal professionals. However, rather than replacing legal professionals, AI should be considered a supplement to their work. By utilizing AI, legal professionals can increase productivity, decrease expenses, and improve their capacity to render expert opinions.



Fifth, legislative bodies and governments must establish transparent regulatory frameworks for AI. These regulations must delineate principles of ethics, foster transparency mandates, and stipulate the responsibility of these AI systems. Achieving an optimal equilibrium between fostering innovation and safeguarding the rights of individuals is a highly challenging endeavor and requires the training of regulators and lawmakers to understand these technologies. 



The AU can be a catalyst to ensure such knowledge is accessible across Africa.



Sixth, a potential benefit of AI in law is its capacity to improve the accessibility of justice. Tools propelled by AI can increase the accessibility of legal information for those who cannot afford legal representation.



Online dispute resolution has the potential to offer economically viable substitutes for conventional litigation. However, we must ensure that these technologies do not exacerbate but rectify existing disparities in access to justice.



AI is not a silver bullet that can solve all legal problems, nor is it the precursor that will end the legal profession as we know it. However, when utilized responsibly and ethically, AI is a tool that has the potential to enhance the agency of legal practitioners and facilitate improved access to justice.



The coexistence of AI and the law can produce a legal system that is more equitable, efficient, and accessible.

AI, Machine learning, robot hand ai artificial intelligence assistance human touching on big data network connection background, Science artificial intelligence technology, innovation and futuristic.

AI And The Law –Navigating The Future Together

<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
&#8220;The forum offers a delightful vacation on the expense account.” – Quote: unknown, 1981.
</blockquote>



Perhaps true but entertaining, nevertheless.



Let’s plod on.



Davos 2023: the word &#8216;polycrisis&#8217; was on everybody&#8217;s lips as leaders deliberated the cascading crises of the moment.



Attitudes have now hardened further. New and old conflicts have flared up, deepening the schisms between and inside countries and communities.



Flashpoints galore as anger levels reach a crescendo.



Will the year ahead therefore be a period of &#8216;permacrisis&#8217;?



Into this valley of hope,



Davos and it’s ski slope,



Rode the few of us resolute,



In quest for something absolute.



Will the leap year be a time for: ‘Rebuilding Trust’?



Whose trust and whose future though? A preponderance of received wisdom laced with dominant Anglo-Saxon paradigms interspersed with voices from the South can’t cut it.



Did I finally detect fear?



Not greed. Not guilt. Not anger.



A lurking suspicion permeating across I thought.



That the hubris and the presumptions that have dominated the world post World War 2 was not forever.



Alternative axes of powers throwing new arcs of hope to the impoverished and unrepresented.



I listened to President Emmanuel Macron talking of “de-risking, not decoupling”. A tacit admission that the East and the South cannot be ignored.



Heard European Commission President Ursula Gertrud von der Leyen speak on the need for solidarity and announcing how “Russia is militarily, diplomatically and technologically isolated and wholly dependent on China”; while news suggests it is perhaps not yet.



Even the mighty United States until today imports a fifth of its enriched uranium from Russia.



At the BRICS panel discussion, erudite ministers from India, the United Arab Emirates and South Africa extolled the virtues of choices in a fickle world of geopolitics. Unity in diversity to manage the common challenges of poverty, climate and health, among others. President Xi Jinping said: “China’s economy is like the Swiss Alps, undulating with peaks and troughs.”



To appreciate the Alps, you need to zoom out and admire from afar.



Same with China.



Broaden your vision and see what it exudes and promises. Profound!



What is then the true test of multilateralism? To smaller countries, it’s about protection. For the powerful, a litmus test to fulfil their obligations. For the international community, it’s how to monitor and create balanced priorities. Davos 2024 aimed to restore collective agency, and reinforce the fundamental principles of transparency, consistency, and accountability.



The goal ostensibly is to back a spirit of open and constructive dialogue to help connect the dots in an increasingly complex and fractured environment.



Déjà vu.



Why now this cry from the developed world?



An attempt to remain on the saddle and lure back the disenchanted who has flown?



My conclusion is simple.



A truly multipolar world based on trade, choices, efficiencies and fair negotiations is well underway.



And therein lies hope and salvation.



President Paul Kagame of Rwanda and President Nana Akufo-Addo of Ghana, together with UNDP, launched Timbuktoo, a startup fund with an initial $1 billion target to leverage Africa&#8217;s youth and dynamism.



An ingenious name.



Timbuktu has long been used to describe long, difficult journeys.



A boulevard of broken dreams for European explorers of the past who tried to reach it.



As masters of our own destiny, we in Africa will succeed through new partners and along with the old that still remains good.



Insanity is when you keep trying the same thing and expect different results.



We don’t have the time for that.



And indeed, as they say: You get what you negotiate. Not what you deserve.



Davos told me we have room to dream and space to maneuver.



Most of all, we have choices now to make.



As the world needs us as much as we need them.



A ‘win-win’ finally.



So, let’s seek that perfect world of collaboration focused on global extension and not its extinction.

Day Three Of The World Economic Forum (WEF) 2024

View From The Alps: Davos 2024 A Bugle Call For Multilateralism

In 1943, the Royal Air Force looked for quick fixes to improve the probability that their bombers could complete their missions and successfully return home. One option was to add armor-plating, but what was the optimal placement which would ensure maximum protection without compromising the aircraft’s performance?



The accepted thinking, based on the data collected from returning bombers, was that the wings, nose, and fuselage should be armored up. They, after all, had the most bullet holes.



It took a gifted mathematician, Abraham Wald, to highlight that the best solution would, in reality, be to armor the three areas that never seemed to get hit: the cockpit, the engines, and the tail.



He had correctly hypothesized that the bullet patterns would be evenly distributed and, therefore, the planes that did not return had been taken down due to weaknesses in these three key areas.



This is a wonderful story as it highlights how, if you want to be effective using data for strategic decision-making, you have to think deeply about both the data you have and the data you don’t.



Companies, surprisingly, despite their significant investment in technology, still seem to succumb to their own version of this data selection bias.



For while they do not have to worry about the negative consequences of suboptimal armoring, they do need to optimize the placement of resources, to ensure they provide maximum customer value without compromising their ability to scale profitably.



The data they consistently seem to ignore when making these types of resource decisions is that which exposes the real value they bring to their clients.



I’ll use the case of mid-size Asian bank, DBS Bank, as an example. For years they had managed their business using key performance indicators (KPIs). These KPIs helped them to focus on efficiently distributing their products to millions of retail customers.



Call centers, for example, would typically focus on reducing call abandonment, queuing times, handling times, and improving first call resolutions.



And I suspect that over time DBS were able to improve productivity and offer a more streamlined service to their clients.



But although these metrics no doubt helped the company reduce its costs, it reportedly added extra ones for their customers.



And the cost that seemingly annoyed their customers the most was the extra hours they had to waste, dealing with the bank.



So it was Paul Cobban and his team who realized they were managing using the data they had, not the data they needed. So they pivoted and reset the strategy to focus on improving just one metric: reducing the time customers spend dealing with them. Now, their teams had to think more deeply about how to ensure their customers didn’t have to call centers, write emails, travel to branches, or wait in long queues.



Cobban estimated that this process was able to “take out at least 250 million wasted customer hours per year”, as per a 2016 article in Forbes.



This helped DBS transform from being recognized as one of the worst banks in Singapore to becoming one of the best and most loved.



It must have taken courage for the team to stop worrying about internal metrics and start trying to develop customer-led ones.



Especially when business schools and consultants are still extolling the virtues of balanced scorecards based on the assumption you can’t manage what you can’t measure.



The truth is, these management systems tend to reinforce selection bias. This occurs as executives often shape strategies around what is straightforward to manage and quantify, rather than exploring the often ethereal data sets that help identify where the real client value lies.



Aligning compensation with easily quantifiable metrics such as revenue, profit margins, or operational efficiency is much simpler than assessing the value a client derives because you saved him time, or amplified his brand, or increased his profits, or made him happier, or reduced his stress levels.



Still, working out the bullet patterns on planes that are hundreds of meters below the sea wasn’t easy either.



Predicting how best to serve your customers, without understanding the actual value you bring them may have worked in a world where change is slow and the future is predictable.



That world, I’m afraid, has gone.

Business people working in a board room with a laptop and digital tablet

Why KPIs Can Kill Companies

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has been touted as the key to unlocking the continent’s economic fortunes. Yet, in a continent that grapples with extreme poverty and inequality, what does this tangibly mean?



AfCFTA, an Africa-wide free trade area agreement aimed at establishing the African market as a single market, was formed by 54 of the 55 African Union (AU) nations in 2018. This year has been seen as the year of accelerated implementation of the agreement. As Ijeoma Uju, a Partner at Templars Nigeria, outlines: “Recent developments across the African continent show that the idea of ‘Africa Rising’ remains true and alive. With trade liberalization through AfCFTA, a fast-growing population and increased technology penetration, the opportunities in Africa’s key markets continue to expand. What many see as challenges in Africa, are in a manner of speaking, Africa’s greatest strength for investments and growth.”



The agreement represents not just an economic opportunity but a transformative force that can reshape Africa’s global standing. By fostering collaboration and integration among nations, it encourages shared knowledge and resources while strengthening regional ties. It is envisioned as a way to drive innovation, which could lead to the development of sustainable industries and solutions to pressing social challenges.



According to a 2022 World Bank report, this agreement could generate vast economic benefits, embracing 1.3 billion people and a combined GDP of $3.4 trillion. If fully implemented, it is expected to raise income by 9% by 2035 and lift 50 million people out of extreme poverty. It aims to boost intra-African trade, promote industrialization, foster economic diversification, and ultimately lead to increased economic growth and job creation. However, as the bank states, to realize these benefits, the agreement must harmonize policies across regions and interests.



Abrego et al. outline the potential for Africa’s welfare advancement, particularly through reducing Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs) with an emphasis on manufacturing and agriculture for income gains. Their research indicates that addressing NTBs, including infrastructure gaps, improving business environments, and reducing transportation costs, is crucial for maximizing these gains. From a policy point of view, the authors call for a reduction of NTBs, an enabling business environment, full liberalization to maximize the welfare benefits, and structural transformation that promotes labor and capital reallocation. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO), asserts: “Unless we can deal with these costs and bring them down, it will be very difficult for us to actualize a good implementation of the Continental Free Trade Area.”



There are, of course, some other glaring challenges to consider in implementing this agreement. Firstly, AfCFTA’s benefits might not be evenly distributed, potentially exacerbating income inequality. Those with skills and resources might benefit more, leaving vulnerable populations behind.



Secondly, many nations on the continent lack robust social safety nets. If increased trade leads to job displacements in certain sectors, there might be a lack of adequate social security measures to support affected individuals and families. Thirdly, rapid industrialization and increased trade could raise concerns about labor standards and workers’ rights. Ensuring fair wages, safe working conditions, and job security are crucial for social security, but these may be compromised in the pursuit of competitiveness.



Finally, a significant portion of Africa’s workforce operates in the informal sector without formal social security benefits. Integrating these workers into formal economic activities under AfCFTA poses challenges in ensuring their social security.



Indeed, while AfCFTA has the potential to drive economic growth and create jobs, its impact on social security in Africa will depend on how well governments address the challenges highlighted. Policymakers need to focus on inclusive economic policies, invest in education and skills development, and strengthen social safety nets



to ensure that the benefits of increased trade translate into improved social security for all segments of the population. As those in the ‘Africa Rising’ camp argue, this could be a watershed moment for the continent.



AfCFTA holds immense promise for Africa’s economic growth, but its true success will be measured by our ability to address these challenges and ensure inclusive development. We may well be able to resuscitate the ‘Africa Rising’ narrative, but we need to balance its impact with policy.

Container ship in export and import business and logistics. Shipping cargo to harbor by crane. Water transport International. Aerial view and top view

The Potential Impact Of AfCFTA On Social Security And Inclusive Development

September 2023 was a month of conferences.



It started off with the summit of the Norwegian-African Business Association in Oslo.



A Reuters event in London followed. Then the revered United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York. And the month finished with the AIIB Annual Meeting at Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt. Fascinating as always. Thousands of clever people flying around, talking and promising. Everywhere, the Africa question is dominant but cautious. Risk, coups, exchange rates, crime… are oft-repeated words.



The fine balance of today’s geopolitics means Africa has to appease to the rhetoric and the threats of a rejuvenated West while still looking at the East for all things important.



Tough for our leaders, fraught as their countries are with inflation, currency issues, elections, and poverty.



The fundamental architecture where Africa provides the minerals, and the world produces goods they then sell back to the continent creates an imbalance that no amount of Bretton Woods fiddling can resolve.



The climate challenge exposes the hypocrisy too. Africa, home to labor, land, minerals and oodles of sun, wind and water (read renewables).



Why keep manufacturing then outside its shores? At least one eminent minister told me that the Washington Consensus on Trade in the 1980s, which was 40 years after the original Bretton Woods’ party and now another 40 years later, the climate agenda (and the ESG paraphernalia), has one thing in common.



A 40-year itch perhaps.



Extract not engage. Lecture but not lead. Promise but not provide.



Can happy endings come from this relentless pursuit of a status quo camouflaged as aid and grant?



The question is: what then?



Possibly the BRICS bank is the answer to getting an alter ego?



They seem serious albeit the principle of ‘my enemy’s enemy is my friend’-kind-of binding force. Well, my school had said ‘charity begins at home’.



My mother, like all mothers, had told me: “You don’t get what you want, you get what you deserve.” And my little daughter used to say: “United we stand, divided we fall.”



African unity cannot remain a myth. African collaboration cannot be an illusion. African solidarity cannot be confined to speeches. The global quest for minerals, gas and gold interlaced with ‘dead aid’, fits nicely into the greed, guilt, and fear syndrome. How do we collectively enhance that fear factor?



The fear of food shortage when Africa has so much arable land.



The fear of global warming when Africa can absorb it all through its forests.



The fear of energy sourcing when Africa has all the gas, oil and the coal the world needs.



The fear of growth when Africa has the youngest and largest unserved markets.



The fear of supply chain concentration when Africa has the obvious renewable energy- based manufacturing at source (critical minerals) solutions. The fear of mass immigration; fundamentalism when simply adding value to Africa’s resources will create jobs and keep them south of the Mediterranean.



Collective bargaining, anyone?



Into that valley of hope let Africa awake. To take charge and be masters of our own destiny. Maybe we should start with banning Africa’s soccer stars from playing in Europe? That should make them feel the pinch – or at the very least, let’s make a pledge to not export any raw materials without value addition at source. Therein lies the start to a world where jobs exist and prosperity reigns.

African woman plucking tea leaves on plantation, East Africa

The Conundrum Facing Africa. Question Is: What Then?

Many workplaces are experiencing a rise in “pleasanteeism” as the cost-of-living crisis takes its toll on the mental health of employees.



Pleasanteeism refers to the pressure an individual feels to put on a brave face in front of colleagues, regardless of their emotional state.



Not only does pleasanteeism compromise the overall mental wellbeing of employees but it can impact badly on workplace productivity.



All businesses are trying to be more open about emotional wellbeing and establish better support structures for employees, break stigmas and encourage conversations.



While the stiff upper lip mentality is slowly being broken down, many people still feel the pressure to put on a brave face when they feel less than optimal.



Pleasanteeism is on display when employees put up a front – and act as if everything is going well for them – even when they are stressed, anxious, under pressure or in need of support.



Those who have succumbed to this affliction wear a mask of pleasantries to hide their true feelings.



Their aim in concealing emotional turmoil and stress is to avoid coming across as disruptive and problematic to colleagues, especially those in charge.



While many bosses appreciate employees who are regarded as low maintenance, hiding one’s poor mental health represents a false economy.



When employees suffer in silence and are not working at their optimal level, it will impact on an organization in both the short and long term – quite apart from the damage this charade is doing to the individual.



It is not hard to understand why pleasanteeism – sometimes called faked cheerfulness – has taken hold of some workplaces.



Cost-of-living concerns following on so closely from the pandemic, combined with overwork and growing job insecurity, have combined to create not just a perfect storm of worry and anxiety but a category four cyclone.



So strong are the gusts of economic headwinds that they have the potential to rattle – and upend – those individuals with deeply rooted positive dispositions to life and work.



At the same time, there have been even stronger calls for people to become more resilient and ride out tough times.



This has meant many have felt themselves torn between sharing their worries and concerns with others or just putting on a brave face.



Many are choosing the pleasanteeism pathway because we still tend to value positivity over negativity.



From a young age, we are taught to banish so-called bad feelings and pick ourselves up when we fail or fall. We are told to stop whingeing, soldier on, stop being negative and look on the bright side.



As we age, we become part of fix-it-fast cultures that embrace FONO, or the fear of a negative outlook.



FONO makes us drown out negative vibes with buckets of contrived positivity and false reassurances when we tell our colleagues that we are “perfectly okay”.



And when we encounter employees who are brave enough to tell us they are experiencing challenging situations, instead of empathizing with them we are increasingly opting for a toxic quick fix that dismisses the slightest sniff of negativity.



We have become accustomed to pouring overly positive vibes on emotions such as fear, sadness, loneliness or anger to push those who are struggling towards a state of false cheerfulness.



We tell them “everything happens for a reason”, “others have it worse” or “just think positive thoughts” instead of reassuring them that it is actually okay to not be okay.



When a workplace embraces and supports pleasanteeism rather than the expression of raw feelings, employees are denied the chance to feel and express what is going on inside them.



Suppression of those feelings further amplifies the internal feeling of negativity.



Many of the worries and concerns of our colleagues are triggered by factors outside the workplace – and often linked to financial concerns. But just because they are created externally does not mean they will not come flooding into our workplaces.



We should open the door to what is on our colleagues’ minds. Simply being there to listen can make a world of difference.



Although mental wellbeing is more front of mind in workplaces than ever before, many colleagues remain unprepared to talk openly about their problems. The truth is we still have a long way to go to remove the fear of being judged or even punished for being honest about expressing that our health is not as rosy as our pretence suggests.

A young boy dressed as a businessman wears a paper bag with a happy face on it.

The Unpleasant Truth About The Pleasanteeism Crisis

<blockquote class="wp-block-quote has-text-align-center is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
“What is a greater opportunity to remedy impropriety than through elections..?”
</blockquote>



Human beings are an optimistic species as, despite all that we do contrary to better judgment, we believe that the future will always be better than the past. As the New Year starts, we are all hopeful that 2024 will definitely bring better sense to people, particularly to those in power to make sincere amends to the lapses of the past. What is a greater opportunity to remedy impropriety than through elections and bringing about change; particularly in countries where it is needed the most?



2024 will be one of the most defining years as billions of voters in over 50 countries around the world go to the electoral ballot to choose who will lead them for the next statutory period. These countries include the United States (US), India, Russia, Pakistan, Indonesia, Taiwan, Iran and many more. The European Union (EU) parliamentary elections are due in 2024 along with Austria, Belgium, Portugal and likely the United Kingdom (no later than January 2025). However, 16 or almost a third of the countries going to the ballot are from Africa, to include but not limited to South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Mozambique, Mauritius, Rwanda, Ghana, Tunisia, Togo, Chad and Senegal. While we remain wary of change, in most cases, change brings eventual growth and increases the accountability of leaders.



<div class="wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile"><figure class="wp-block-media-text__media"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1829288006.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-60869 size-full" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1829288006.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1829288006-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1829288006-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure><div class="wp-block-media-text__content">
Republican presidential candidates Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, left, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, right, talk over each other during the NewsNation Republican Primary Debate inside the Moody Music building at the University of Alabama on Wednesday, December 6, 2023 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Also pictured are former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, center left, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. (Photo by Joshua Lott/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
</div></div>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1244672832.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-60868" style="width:730px;height:auto" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1244672832.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1244672832-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1244672832-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden (Photo by Nathan Posner/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)</figcaption></figure></div>


Having lived in South Africa for almost two decades, it’s the country that I remain most concerned about mainly because I love this beautiful country that has been our third home (India and UAE being the first two). Over the last 28 years, there has undoubtedly been a systemic erosion of the popularity and electoral base of the African National Congress (ANC). Ironically, facing marginalization, this is the very party, along with its leaders, that fought to bring about change from apartheid and secured freedom for its majority black, colored and Indian population.



The reasons for its decline remain consistent as for any ruling party: self-serving leadership, blatant abuse of power, total disregard to the needs of the poor and needy, and, finally, the discontentment of the electorate.



The reason I worry is that because in the absence of a clear alternative to the ANC, South Africa is headed towards an era of volatile coalitions. The ANC has been slowly fragmenting, akin to the proverbial binary fission of an Amoeba, as more cells are formed from the same nucleus. The likely course is either a very narrow victory for the ANC or a path where each of the nine provinces will form governments through the coalitions of parties coming from the same constitution, similar values and ideologies but with no track record of governance or selfless service to the people. Coalitions don’t survive even with the best intent as there are far too many conflicts of interest between coalition partners. This will lead to a period of stagnation, political instability and economic uncertainty for the next decade.



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
“Coalitions don’t survive even with the best intent as there are far too many conflicts of interest between coalition partners. This will lead to a period of stagnation, political instability and economic uncertainty for the next decade.”
</blockquote>



What will serve South Africa well is its God-given gift and wealth of being a resource-rich country. However, it remains to be seen if this will be adequate, in the absence of a functional bureaucracy, prevailing monopolies and lack of consistency in policies. The economic and political stability, or lack thereof, in South Africa will have an impact on the overall development of the African continent but more so on the 16 members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries. This will be an interesting space to watch in the coming years.



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Supporters of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan celebrate as Erdogan leads Turkiye&#8217;s presidential runoff election in Brussels, Belgium on May 28, 2023. (Photo by Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
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However, Africa is not the only contributor to growing global economic uncertainty. The real impact will be felt after if there is a change of guard in the US and whether there will be the outside chance that Donald Trump or the Republican Party prevail in the coming election. The jury is still out on whether the US and consequently the EU will continue to push the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and other agendas that will force continued hostility with Russia. This would require billions of dollars to be pumped into Ukraine in a senseless war that will only see more bloodshed. Since Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to remain unopposed in his bid to win another presidential term, it’s unlikely that there will be any change in Russia’s objective to ensure that NATO does not spread to its borders. If the Western powers continue to support the war, it’s likely that at some stage the war may expand from a limited campaign in Eastern Ukraine, into the complete destruction of the country. As more time passes, the goal posts will continue to change and positions will get further cemented, which is the opposite of finding a negotiated settlement. No qualified General from any army can say with any conviction that Ukraine has any chance of winning a war against Russia without this escalating into a war against NATO. Nobody will benefit from this and we will continue on a path of self-destruction.


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<figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="684" src="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-521724652-1024x684.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-60866" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-521724652-1024x684.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-521724652-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-521724652-768x513.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-521724652-1536x1026.jpg 1536w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-521724652-2048x1368.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Voters in queue to cast their votes at polling stations for elections in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India. (Getty Images)</figcaption></figure></div>


Under these circumstances, Ukraine needs a change in political ideology and possibly leadership that needs to realign with its former cold war ally and bring back peace into the Black Sea region. The war of ego will seldom be won by the weak. The path to peace is to ensure that neither party sees future threats in each other’s alignments and are not swayed by the agendas of third parties. Peace with Russia and a restoration of energy supply to Europe will reduce the economic pain and pressure in the lives of all European citizens. Continued war and escalation of hostilities as we are seeing currently, is not a solution to the problems in the Black Sea area.



We are likely to see continued problems arising from the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. This problem is likely to spill into different parts of the world as the anti-Israel sentiment is reportedly growing everywhere. No one can condone what happened on October 7 but the killing of over 20,000 Palestinian citizens is not the answer. Hamas is an ideology and will foster itself in some other way to reinforce this ideology. This is a problem that cannot be solved without the consent and direct involvement (through cutting financial and military support) of both the US as one of the key allies of Israel, and Qatar and Iran as the key allies of Hamas. A spread of this war to Lebanon (Hezbollah) or the involvement of Jordan, Syria, Egypt and/or any of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries can destabilize the global economy and most certainly disrupt peace in the region.



<div class="wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile" style="grid-template-columns:62% auto"><figure class="wp-block-media-text__media"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1774577620.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-60864 size-full" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1774577620.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1774577620-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1774577620-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure><div class="wp-block-media-text__content">
An election official opens a ballot box for votes counting at the headquarters of the New Patriotic Party during the 2023 presidential primaries on November 4, 2023 in Accra, Ghana. This election will determine who becomes the flagbearer of the party in the upcoming presidential elections in December 2024. (Photo by Ernest Ankomah/Getty Images)
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<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1796329343.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-60863" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1796329343.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1796329343-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1796329343-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">President Cyril Ramaphosa during voters registration weekend on November 18, 2023 in Johannesburg. (Photo by Sharon Seretlo/Gallo Images via Getty Images)</figcaption></figure></div>


These two major flash points will determine the global geopolitics in the coming year. The third is the China factor, both in its economic revival and its global geopolitical ambitions, more specifically in the South China Sea, Taiwan and in the Pacific which will remain a cause for concern, but other than periodic posturing, there is no imminent threat seen from China. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries have so far been working closely on economic development and continue to control the largest portion of the global computer and components market. The growth of this bloc will provide stability in the region particularly if trade barriers are removed in the coming period.



Other blocs like BRICS and its planned expansion are unlikely to move the needle in 2024. There is far too much happening elsewhere for the member countries to make any real attempt to do anything earth-shattering that would have a material impact on geopolitics. China and India remain adversaries with absolutely nothing in common except a contentious border and a deep level of growing mistrust. Other than payment solutions and enhancing trade, there is very little that will come from this bloc. India will continue to grow as an economic powerhouse and if the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party wins the elections, as is expected, the country will continue on its path to greater growth and stability. It will, hopefully, play a unifying role in global geopolitics through its own mantra of non-alignment.



The United Nations (UN) has lost its standing and I believe that we will continue to see this become a less relevant organization with the only significance coming from its developmental agencies. In my opinion, the UN headquarters should be moved to Switzerland or to any other relatively neutral country so that the current influence is ended and they can be closer to where good needs to be done. The UN Security Council (UNSC) statement on the Gaza atrocities was a passive call for &#8220;urgent steps to immediately allow safe and unhindered humanitarian access, and also for creating the conditions for a sustainable cessation of hostilities.” Even after this was drafted, the US abstained from voting just to allow some statement to pass. So, 2.5 million people can be completely uprooted and the world watches as we provide unhindered humanitarian access and create conditions to stop hostilities. Well done! We, the citizens of the world, need to be ashamed of ourselves.



The last major event of 2023 was the United Nations Climate Change Conference or the Conference of Parties (COP28) that was held in Dubai. COP28 was no doubt a spectacular gathering of over 70,000 influential people and delegates from around the world and was a year-end tourism and hospitality sector bonanza for the UAE and particularly for the emirate of Dubai. Other than delegates, about 400,000 people registered to attend the event during this period.



Conservatively, even if each person spent an estimated average of $5,000 in airline tickets, hotels, hospitality etc, the income generated would have been close to $1.5 billion to $2 billion in contrast to the hundreds of millions possibly spent on COP28. There were several strategic conversations, and many countries used the opportunity for meaningful bilateral meetings, hosted in one of the finest and safest places on earth. Everything was perfect except that the needle did not move on the urgent need to stop the reliance on fossil fuels.



<div class="wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile"><figure class="wp-block-media-text__media"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="682" src="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1796339789.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-60870 size-full" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1796339789.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1796339789-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1796339789-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure><div class="wp-block-media-text__content">
A general view during a media briefing on voters registration weekend on November 18, 2023 in Johannesburg, South Africa. The Electoral Commission of SA confirmed that it is ready to register South Africans to vote in the 2024 elections. (Photo by Sharon Seretlo/Gallo Images via Getty Images)
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The conference’s final statement could not pass with any mention of the slowing down or stopping of the production of fossil fuels; the core of the problem. So, was there a real return on the investment of about $2 billion that was spent by governments and large corporates to attend this event? There have been decisions on tripling renewable energy resources, doubling energy efficiency and the large contributions to the Loss and Damage Fund; however, no action points were set on the reduction or elimination of fossil fuels. When Covid-19 started, the world went on a mission to stop the spread and find a vaccine to eradicate the disease. No one focused on setting up a fund for funerals. Ironically, this is what COP28 resolved to do.



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote has-text-align-center is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
“The war of ego will seldom be won by the weak.”
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Sadly, a large percentage of the global population does not still understand the impact of climate change and what 1.5 degrees above pre-industrialization temperature means. This increased temperature is catalyzing the age of Anthropocene; an age that will lead to the eventual extinction of all human life created solely by mankind’s impact on the global geology and ecosystem. The irreversible 1.5 degree benchmark is close to being breached and the next threshold we will set ourselves will be 3 degrees, by which time the planet will become a less habitable place, particularly for the poor. As stated in various reports, the world needs between $175 trillion to $275 trillion for energy transition; this is 2.6 times global GDP. The commitment of $85 billion at COP28, though noteworthy, falls really short of what is needed and any significant impact is, therefore, a pipe dream. There is a lot for us all to think about and start playing a meaningful role in bringing change. Saving the planet is a collective responsibility.

Haryana Panchayat Elections 2022

A Record Year For Elections, 2024 Will Determine Global Geopolitics

Since the 1980s, the term ‘just transition’ has been touted as the answer to our climate challenges. Against the industrial revolution(s) backdrop, this transition referred to the deliberate shift towards more sustainable and green practices. The ‘just transition’ is the responsible move from a high- to a low-carbon economy. 



Yet, an often forgotten aspect of this transition is the very descriptor ‘just’. The reality is that much climate change action happens in silos. A distinct gap between the Global North and the Global South seems to persist. As Irina Velicu and Stefania Barca asserted in 2019: “Since both ecological and social crises are produced via inequalities, a just transition can be a transition out of the logic of unequal relations — rather than just out of fossil fuels.” In other words, our responsibility extends beyond borders and encompasses more than just shifting to a low- carbon economy. In this regard, there are some glaring challenges.



Firstly, there are financial constraints. Here, the gap between the Global North and the Global South is painfully apparent. Much of the Global South is already explicitly confronted by the impact of climate change, and there is a clarion call for the Global North to help fund interventions. The reality is that the Global South lacks the funding and resources to take on this fight alone. According to UNCTAD, the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of just half of the developing world is projected at $5.8 trillion by 2030. Yet, only $83.3 billion was provided and mobilized by developed countries for climate initiatives in developing countries in 2020, $16.7 billion short of the annual goal. 



This has been compounded by the constrained fiscal context in much of the developing world, which the Covid-19 pandemic has exacerbated. Moreover, many countries in the Global South are still in the initial stages of industrialization and economic development and implementing strict environmental regulations can hinder this progress if they do not have access to critical green technologies such as solar power.



Secondly, the technological gap creates a disparity in implementing sustainable practices. The concentration of intellectual property (IP) ownership in advanced economies has led to difficulties for developing countries to access green technology innovation. This concentration hampers their progress in Global Value Chains and forces them to rely on costly methods to establish domestic capacities. Additionally, there are barriers to transferring green technology. This unwillingness to share IP might similarly hinder global efforts in climate technologies, causing divisions and tensions despite the urgent need for global cooperation. 



Countries with clear policies supporting research, innovation, and technology development tend to have more robust technological capacity, yet there is minimal alignment across developing countries. The Global North is the locus of primary innovation – armed with resources, knowledge, technology and ability. To combat this challenge, a diffusion practice is imperative to assist the Global South in mirroring these practices. Diffusion allows for the sharing of IP, so that innovative practices are easily adopted.



Thirdly, capacity disparities exist between the Global South and the Global North and within the Global South. Alongside financial and technological gaps, there are also infrastructure challenges. Countries in the Global South range from highly industrialized economies to those struggling with basic infrastructure – this is often apparent through service delivery challenges. There are also disparities in education and research capacities. Additionally, it is important to consider the severity of the challenges in the Global South and where they are realistically able to place climate change in our contextual coat hangers. Research demonstrates that the Global South is disproportionately impacted by the setback in the sustainable development goals (SDGs).



A grim reality is that this is a difficult balancing act in many of these regions. The just transition, however, does also have a ripple impact on other SDGs, particularly concerning clean energy, decent employment, economic metrics, inequality and sustainable production and consumption.



Velicu and Barca argue that we need to rethink the just transition through the lens of equality through an approach that focuses on equity rather than equality. In other words, if the Global South received equal diffusion of resources, it would not be as beneficial as if they received an equitable or proportionate resource. As Damian White concluded in 2020: “Decarbonizing, decolonizing, democratizing and de-commodifying our carbon-intensive material world is going to require… the unleashing of enormous amounts of creative labour and inventive praxis to build public institutions, a public ecology and a public culture to allow us to survive and flourish on a warming planet.” What is abundantly apparent is that without bridging these gaps and ensuring the inclusion of the Global South, the just transition will remain a dream deferre

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