Feedback from the Davos meetings of the World Economic Forum (WEF) has always been useful. Historically, the discussions with world leaders, both political and corporate, provide insight into what is expected in the year ahead. The post-event mood after the meetings was generally vibrant but 2024 was a departure from the past. Is it because WEF is losing its luster or because world leaders did not want to face the tough questions that were expected at Davos? Geopolitically, it was a disaster, as several world leaders were missing from the January 2024 WEF meetings; France’s Emmanuel Macron was the only leader from the G7 countries. Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Rishi Sunak and many other leaders were conspicuous by their absence. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was present for a special address. The Russians were missing and so were their oligarch parties that are part of the pomp and show during Davos.


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<figure class="alignleft size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="754" height="1024" src="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/21-September-2023-Wahi-6-of-6-754x1024.png" alt="" class="wp-image-61671" style="width:397px;height:auto" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/21-September-2023-Wahi-6-of-6-754x1024.png 754w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/21-September-2023-Wahi-6-of-6-221x300.png 221w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/21-September-2023-Wahi-6-of-6-768x1043.png 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/21-September-2023-Wahi-6-of-6-1131x1536.png 1131w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/21-September-2023-Wahi-6-of-6-1508x2048.png 1508w" sizes="(max-width: 754px) 100vw, 754px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Dr Rakesh Wahi (Photo by Yeshiel Panchia)</figcaption></figure></div>


Africa has been gaining in prominence at the WEF meetings and delegations from South Africa, Rwanda, Ghana and a few other countries continue to be torchbearers for the continent. Some inter-esting debates on technology, AI and the challenges of the future were thought-provoking this year but to a large part, there was nothing to write home about. In 2018, Dr Akinwumi Adesina, President of the African Development Bank, along with several other multilaterals, founded the Africa Investment Forum as an alternative to WEF Davos. The vision was to move away from talk and politics to a platform for action. For African countries, this platform is far more valuable than the money that gets spent in participating in Davos. The outcomes are measurable and are focused on Africa and our leaders need to focus on answers relating to the African continent and not be bystanders to the deafening silence at a global platform.



The unanswered and embarrassing questions before world leaders include, but are not limited to, the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and climate change. The issue of Ukraine will remain unsolved as long as the West continues to fuel and fight a proxy war against Russia. Although, the United States’ (U.S.) Repub-lican party has reportedly applied some brakes to the funding of the war, there is relentless hysteria being stirred regarding Russia’s aggression and intent to start similar campaigns along other parts of its border. Finland and Sweden are the most recent additions to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) which now has 32 members.



We can only speculate that despite any adjectives that have been used to describe Putin, one thing that he most certainly is not, is a fool who would even, in all his arrogance, think that Russia could take on the collective might of NATO in a conventional war. Looking purely at data that is in the public domain, Russia has 40% of the ground troops, 20% of aircraft and 28% of the naval power of NATO. This is a disincentive for Russia to go to war with any NATO country. Where Russia has a distinct advantage is in nuclear capability and this should not be taken lightly. Putin has made his intention clear; if NATO gets involved or pushes his hand, he has limited choices.



When Ukraine began its quest for membership to NATO, Russia warned them not to do so for reasons that are known to the whole world. None of the superpowers want their cold war enemies setting up bases near their borders. What would the U.S. do if Russia were to set up a base in Mexico? The Cuban missile crisis of 1962 almost brought about a nuclear war when the U.S. found out about the Soviet Union’s plans to establish nuclear weapons in Cuba.



History has taught us many lessons and self-preservation is an adequate motivation for nations to act in self-interest. The only way fighting between neighbors can come to an end is if the two (with the help of affected and interested neighbors) sit down to talk. This can only happen if NATO countries take a step back to stop fueling the war through money and weapons, stop expand- ing NATO and ask Russia to stop any further aggression. By now, Putin would also have understood that continuing this conflict is not sustainable, even for Russia.



The discussion on Ukraine is not complete without acknowl- edging the growing conflicts of interest. Other than in supplying weapons, Western countries, mainly the U.S., have significant economic interests in Ukraine, most of all in securing agricultural capacity for all times to come. Several major multinational corporations owned and controlled by some of the largest U.S. financial institutions are alleged to be the beneficiaries of privatization and concessions in Ukraine. Unfortunately, as the media continues to report on the horrific consequences of war, there is silence on the conflict of economic interest that will continue to catalyze the war.



We are also facing a major crisis in Gaza. It has been six months since the attack carried out by Hamas against Israel on October 7 2023. I do not believe that there is any human being with a soul who will condone the killing and suffering of innocent women and children at the scale that is going on in the war between Israel and Hamas. This time around, the U.S. is supporting Israel and has time and again blocked any move made at the United Nations Security Council calling for a stop to the bloodshed. What is going on in Gaza will have far greater consequences for the world than the war in Ukraine. The world is likely to get more and more polarized and instead of progressing forward and making the world a better place, there is going to be more hate and regression.



In the last two years, these two conflicts have cost the world far more than any other recent crisis. Some Pentagon sources have quoted that the direct cost of the war for Russia in Ukraine, to date, has been more than $210 billion. This does not include the economic loss to the world in the form of price escalation, the slowing down of economic activity and the setting up of duplicate and expensive supply chains. Financial weekly newspaper Barron’s has quoted Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) sources projecting the global cost of lost output in excess of $2.8 trillion. WEF sources quote figures for the destruction in Ukraine to be between $400 billion and $1 trillion. The German online platform Statista has projected that it will conservatively cost about $410 billion to rebuild Ukraine. These are numbers that for the common man mean very little, other than point to an alarming fact that people in Ukraine will stay below poverty levels for a long, long time. Imagine if this money was poured into developing countries to help them with infrastructure, education, healthcare, energy transformation, agriculture, water and food security.



Agriculture and food production in Africa needs to be catalyzed on a war footing. There is a lot of land in Africa that is currently been bought and/or being leased by multinationals with a view to creating clusters to export agricultural products. There needs to be scrutiny by the African Union and African multilaterals on how to manage the needs of African nations. Why export food when there are so many nations in Africa that continue to import food products? We need compelling incentives for Africans and African-owned companies to grow the agricultural base in Africa.



My favorite activity after the end of a long day at work has always been to watch local and international news networks and catch up on current affairs. In the last few months, my interest has largely been in catching up with elections in different parts of the world. With more than two billion people going to the ballot in over 50 countries this year, a lot of interesting discussions are going to take place on the future of many countries and on geopolitics in general.



Talking about elections; the U.S. elections have always been of interest. It took me a long time to somewhat understand the elections system. It was always interesting to watch the primaries, Super Tuesdays and town hall debates: a seemingly well-structured election system to finally select leading candidates for the Republicans and Democrats who then battle in a final contest for a winner-takes-all. This year has been with mixed emotions but mainly disappointment. I was 13 years old when the Watergate scandal broke in 1972.



We used to hear the news on the radio for updates on the case leading to Richard Nixon’s resignation; the only president in U.S. history to resign, although three others have been formally impeached.



These blemishes aside, one has looked up to the leadership in the U.S.; Barack Obama was my most recent favorite. We are not to judge who Americans choose to lead them but for a country with over 340 million people, I most certainly think that there is enough talent to bring in younger, smarter and less-conflicted individuals to lead the most powerful country in the world.



The sitcoms will continue for the rest of 2024 but sadly, the fate of the world in many ways will rest on the decisions made by Americans this year.



I am ending this piece on a sad note; it’s a personal loss. My business partner of over 20 years, Zafar Siddiqi, passed away at the end of February. We take a lot of things in life for granted; life is one of them. We just believe that what happens to others will not happen to us. Death pauses us when it happens close to home. Each of us rely on familiar faces (personally and professionally) when we have moments of triumph or periods of uncertainty. Coming home after his burial, I was left with the sad real- ity that the face I was so accustomed to turn towards, for over two decades, will only smile from a picture in my office. We both have been through some of the biggest challenges setting up our media and education businesses; one thing we mutually agreed on was to never give up. We put our faith, our blood, sweat and tears into these dreams and built them one brick and one day at a time. Today, we have the best teams and people around us, but the loss is of someone who shared my pain each day of this journey. Rest in peace, dear Zafar.

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From WEF To War To Polls And Politics, An Interesting Year For The World

<blockquote class="wp-block-quote has-text-align-center is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
“What is a greater opportunity to remedy impropriety than through elections..?”
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Human beings are an optimistic species as, despite all that we do contrary to better judgment, we believe that the future will always be better than the past. As the New Year starts, we are all hopeful that 2024 will definitely bring better sense to people, particularly to those in power to make sincere amends to the lapses of the past. What is a greater opportunity to remedy impropriety than through elections and bringing about change; particularly in countries where it is needed the most?



2024 will be one of the most defining years as billions of voters in over 50 countries around the world go to the electoral ballot to choose who will lead them for the next statutory period. These countries include the United States (US), India, Russia, Pakistan, Indonesia, Taiwan, Iran and many more. The European Union (EU) parliamentary elections are due in 2024 along with Austria, Belgium, Portugal and likely the United Kingdom (no later than January 2025). However, 16 or almost a third of the countries going to the ballot are from Africa, to include but not limited to South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Mozambique, Mauritius, Rwanda, Ghana, Tunisia, Togo, Chad and Senegal. While we remain wary of change, in most cases, change brings eventual growth and increases the accountability of leaders.



<div class="wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile"><figure class="wp-block-media-text__media"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1829288006.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-60869 size-full" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1829288006.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1829288006-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1829288006-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure><div class="wp-block-media-text__content">
Republican presidential candidates Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, left, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, right, talk over each other during the NewsNation Republican Primary Debate inside the Moody Music building at the University of Alabama on Wednesday, December 6, 2023 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Also pictured are former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, center left, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. (Photo by Joshua Lott/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
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<figure class="aligncenter size-full is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1244672832.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-60868" style="width:730px;height:auto" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1244672832.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1244672832-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1244672832-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden (Photo by Nathan Posner/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)</figcaption></figure></div>


Having lived in South Africa for almost two decades, it’s the country that I remain most concerned about mainly because I love this beautiful country that has been our third home (India and UAE being the first two). Over the last 28 years, there has undoubtedly been a systemic erosion of the popularity and electoral base of the African National Congress (ANC). Ironically, facing marginalization, this is the very party, along with its leaders, that fought to bring about change from apartheid and secured freedom for its majority black, colored and Indian population.



The reasons for its decline remain consistent as for any ruling party: self-serving leadership, blatant abuse of power, total disregard to the needs of the poor and needy, and, finally, the discontentment of the electorate.



The reason I worry is that because in the absence of a clear alternative to the ANC, South Africa is headed towards an era of volatile coalitions. The ANC has been slowly fragmenting, akin to the proverbial binary fission of an Amoeba, as more cells are formed from the same nucleus. The likely course is either a very narrow victory for the ANC or a path where each of the nine provinces will form governments through the coalitions of parties coming from the same constitution, similar values and ideologies but with no track record of governance or selfless service to the people. Coalitions don’t survive even with the best intent as there are far too many conflicts of interest between coalition partners. This will lead to a period of stagnation, political instability and economic uncertainty for the next decade.



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
“Coalitions don’t survive even with the best intent as there are far too many conflicts of interest between coalition partners. This will lead to a period of stagnation, political instability and economic uncertainty for the next decade.”
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What will serve South Africa well is its God-given gift and wealth of being a resource-rich country. However, it remains to be seen if this will be adequate, in the absence of a functional bureaucracy, prevailing monopolies and lack of consistency in policies. The economic and political stability, or lack thereof, in South Africa will have an impact on the overall development of the African continent but more so on the 16 members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries. This will be an interesting space to watch in the coming years.



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Supporters of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan celebrate as Erdogan leads Turkiye&#8217;s presidential runoff election in Brussels, Belgium on May 28, 2023. (Photo by Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
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However, Africa is not the only contributor to growing global economic uncertainty. The real impact will be felt after if there is a change of guard in the US and whether there will be the outside chance that Donald Trump or the Republican Party prevail in the coming election. The jury is still out on whether the US and consequently the EU will continue to push the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and other agendas that will force continued hostility with Russia. This would require billions of dollars to be pumped into Ukraine in a senseless war that will only see more bloodshed. Since Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to remain unopposed in his bid to win another presidential term, it’s unlikely that there will be any change in Russia’s objective to ensure that NATO does not spread to its borders. If the Western powers continue to support the war, it’s likely that at some stage the war may expand from a limited campaign in Eastern Ukraine, into the complete destruction of the country. As more time passes, the goal posts will continue to change and positions will get further cemented, which is the opposite of finding a negotiated settlement. No qualified General from any army can say with any conviction that Ukraine has any chance of winning a war against Russia without this escalating into a war against NATO. Nobody will benefit from this and we will continue on a path of self-destruction.


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<figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="684" src="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-521724652-1024x684.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-60866" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-521724652-1024x684.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-521724652-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-521724652-768x513.jpg 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-521724652-1536x1026.jpg 1536w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-521724652-2048x1368.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Voters in queue to cast their votes at polling stations for elections in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India. (Getty Images)</figcaption></figure></div>


Under these circumstances, Ukraine needs a change in political ideology and possibly leadership that needs to realign with its former cold war ally and bring back peace into the Black Sea region. The war of ego will seldom be won by the weak. The path to peace is to ensure that neither party sees future threats in each other’s alignments and are not swayed by the agendas of third parties. Peace with Russia and a restoration of energy supply to Europe will reduce the economic pain and pressure in the lives of all European citizens. Continued war and escalation of hostilities as we are seeing currently, is not a solution to the problems in the Black Sea area.



We are likely to see continued problems arising from the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. This problem is likely to spill into different parts of the world as the anti-Israel sentiment is reportedly growing everywhere. No one can condone what happened on October 7 but the killing of over 20,000 Palestinian citizens is not the answer. Hamas is an ideology and will foster itself in some other way to reinforce this ideology. This is a problem that cannot be solved without the consent and direct involvement (through cutting financial and military support) of both the US as one of the key allies of Israel, and Qatar and Iran as the key allies of Hamas. A spread of this war to Lebanon (Hezbollah) or the involvement of Jordan, Syria, Egypt and/or any of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries can destabilize the global economy and most certainly disrupt peace in the region.



<div class="wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile" style="grid-template-columns:62% auto"><figure class="wp-block-media-text__media"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1774577620.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-60864 size-full" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1774577620.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1774577620-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1774577620-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure><div class="wp-block-media-text__content">
An election official opens a ballot box for votes counting at the headquarters of the New Patriotic Party during the 2023 presidential primaries on November 4, 2023 in Accra, Ghana. This election will determine who becomes the flagbearer of the party in the upcoming presidential elections in December 2024. (Photo by Ernest Ankomah/Getty Images)
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<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1796329343.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-60863" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1796329343.jpg 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1796329343-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GettyImages-1796329343-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">President Cyril Ramaphosa during voters registration weekend on November 18, 2023 in Johannesburg. (Photo by Sharon Seretlo/Gallo Images via Getty Images)</figcaption></figure></div>


These two major flash points will determine the global geopolitics in the coming year. The third is the China factor, both in its economic revival and its global geopolitical ambitions, more specifically in the South China Sea, Taiwan and in the Pacific which will remain a cause for concern, but other than periodic posturing, there is no imminent threat seen from China. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries have so far been working closely on economic development and continue to control the largest portion of the global computer and components market. The growth of this bloc will provide stability in the region particularly if trade barriers are removed in the coming period.



Other blocs like BRICS and its planned expansion are unlikely to move the needle in 2024. There is far too much happening elsewhere for the member countries to make any real attempt to do anything earth-shattering that would have a material impact on geopolitics. China and India remain adversaries with absolutely nothing in common except a contentious border and a deep level of growing mistrust. Other than payment solutions and enhancing trade, there is very little that will come from this bloc. India will continue to grow as an economic powerhouse and if the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party wins the elections, as is expected, the country will continue on its path to greater growth and stability. It will, hopefully, play a unifying role in global geopolitics through its own mantra of non-alignment.



The United Nations (UN) has lost its standing and I believe that we will continue to see this become a less relevant organization with the only significance coming from its developmental agencies. In my opinion, the UN headquarters should be moved to Switzerland or to any other relatively neutral country so that the current influence is ended and they can be closer to where good needs to be done. The UN Security Council (UNSC) statement on the Gaza atrocities was a passive call for &#8220;urgent steps to immediately allow safe and unhindered humanitarian access, and also for creating the conditions for a sustainable cessation of hostilities.” Even after this was drafted, the US abstained from voting just to allow some statement to pass. So, 2.5 million people can be completely uprooted and the world watches as we provide unhindered humanitarian access and create conditions to stop hostilities. Well done! We, the citizens of the world, need to be ashamed of ourselves.



The last major event of 2023 was the United Nations Climate Change Conference or the Conference of Parties (COP28) that was held in Dubai. COP28 was no doubt a spectacular gathering of over 70,000 influential people and delegates from around the world and was a year-end tourism and hospitality sector bonanza for the UAE and particularly for the emirate of Dubai. Other than delegates, about 400,000 people registered to attend the event during this period.



Conservatively, even if each person spent an estimated average of $5,000 in airline tickets, hotels, hospitality etc, the income generated would have been close to $1.5 billion to $2 billion in contrast to the hundreds of millions possibly spent on COP28. There were several strategic conversations, and many countries used the opportunity for meaningful bilateral meetings, hosted in one of the finest and safest places on earth. Everything was perfect except that the needle did not move on the urgent need to stop the reliance on fossil fuels.



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A general view during a media briefing on voters registration weekend on November 18, 2023 in Johannesburg, South Africa. The Electoral Commission of SA confirmed that it is ready to register South Africans to vote in the 2024 elections. (Photo by Sharon Seretlo/Gallo Images via Getty Images)
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The conference’s final statement could not pass with any mention of the slowing down or stopping of the production of fossil fuels; the core of the problem. So, was there a real return on the investment of about $2 billion that was spent by governments and large corporates to attend this event? There have been decisions on tripling renewable energy resources, doubling energy efficiency and the large contributions to the Loss and Damage Fund; however, no action points were set on the reduction or elimination of fossil fuels. When Covid-19 started, the world went on a mission to stop the spread and find a vaccine to eradicate the disease. No one focused on setting up a fund for funerals. Ironically, this is what COP28 resolved to do.



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote has-text-align-center is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
“The war of ego will seldom be won by the weak.”
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Sadly, a large percentage of the global population does not still understand the impact of climate change and what 1.5 degrees above pre-industrialization temperature means. This increased temperature is catalyzing the age of Anthropocene; an age that will lead to the eventual extinction of all human life created solely by mankind’s impact on the global geology and ecosystem. The irreversible 1.5 degree benchmark is close to being breached and the next threshold we will set ourselves will be 3 degrees, by which time the planet will become a less habitable place, particularly for the poor. As stated in various reports, the world needs between $175 trillion to $275 trillion for energy transition; this is 2.6 times global GDP. The commitment of $85 billion at COP28, though noteworthy, falls really short of what is needed and any significant impact is, therefore, a pipe dream. There is a lot for us all to think about and start playing a meaningful role in bringing change. Saving the planet is a collective responsibility.

Haryana Panchayat Elections 2022

A Record Year For Elections, 2024 Will Determine Global Geopolitics

Over our lifetime, we all come to believe that evolution creates the need for adaptation. Our planet has been through a series of major docu- mented evolutions over billions of years. Since this time-space journey sounds infinite, I will try and peg something relevant as a milestone, which was the extinction of dinosaurs about 66 million years ago; relevant to the extent that my children and now grandchildren seem to still remember the names of several of these species and many businesses have made significant profits thematically illustrating a primitive past that could one day return. 



Other than that, for most people, the history of the world throughout the Stone Age (2.6 million years ago), the Bronze Age (3100 BC) or the Iron Age (1200 BC) through to the start of the ‘Plastic Age’, has little or no meaning. We are so caught up in the ‘now’ that neither the past nor the future, to most, seems to matter. Sub- tle nudges from nature, including but not limited to heat and cold waves, earthquakes, typhoons and even Covid-19, have largely been ignored and subordinated in the pursuit of dominance, greed and materialism. 



As if the crisis in Ukraine and loss of human life were not enough, the ugly head of terrorism once again raised its head with the attack by Hamas on the state of Israel. I will not dwell on the complicated history (going back thousands of years) of the dispute as it opens raw wounds of a debate that remains intensely shrouded in the demise of faith through a trust deficit and growing hatred. For many decades, it appeared that the region was stabilizing as was evident with the announcement of diplomatic and trade initiatives between Israel and the Arab States particularly the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). It’s no secret that lasting peace is not everyone’s salvation, and it was not entirely surprising when the pot was vigorously stirred.



As I wrote in my Publisher’s Note in the October/ November 2023 issue of FORBES AFRICA, many developed countries (specifically the Permanent Members or the Big Five of the United Nations Se- curity Council) benefit from wars through the sale of weapons and will continue to want regional conflicts. Global weapon sales crossed a whopping $2.4 trillion in 2022 and will continue to grow faster than most business sectors. While the sales of armaments will al- ways continue to fuel conflicts, there are several other state and stateless actors that benefit from chaos and uncertainty and are the perpetrators of hate and vio- lence. For them (rogue states and stateless actors), the threat of war and aggression is far more systemic and corrosive than war itself as it provides annuity income, of billions of dollars, in aid. As expected, once there is any indication of lasting peace, the threat of income loss immediately induces bloody skirmishes and acts of violence, to return to an uncertain status quo.



October 7 is one such day that, like many others in different parts of the world, will be remembered as one when a few soulless people sacrificed the region’s peace with senseless slaughter in favor of decades of animosity and continued volatility.



The response, by the Israel Defense Forces, to the October 7 attack was, expectedly, swift and lethal.



However, for the Israeli government, it was also a matter of shame that the most respected national intelligence agency, Mossad was caught napping and the loss of face for the Benjamin Netanyahu government resulted in a dual agenda of retaliation as well as diverting attention away from a political fallout for the government in Israel. Sadly, thousands of innocent civilians including women, children, and infants were killed and/or injured on both sides. With no immediate end in sight, more death and destruction is inevitable as missiles and munitions continue to shower deadly ruin on both sides. Billions of dollars are being spent on this destruction and billions will be required to rebuild things that should not have been damaged in the first place.



The United States mobilized its naval fleets in a show of support to Israel and to induce deterrence from other sympathizers for the Palestinian cause. Not to be left behind and to show its own muscle, the Chinese did the same but with no immediate stated agenda. The Western powers have all aligned behind the state of Israel, many have spoken against the acts of terror by Hamas, other nations have called Hamas a freedom movement, many have recommended reverting to the two-state solution, an increas- ing number of countries are planning to disassociate from Israel by shutting their embassies and severing diplomatic ties, but without exception, everyone has called for an end to the bloodshed, to prevent further loss of innocent lives, and expedite aid to the helpless in Gaza.



It is a land of a few million people, where it will take generations to recover from the dastardly acts and ensuing retaliatory violence that most did not wish for and are innocent bystanders of. Sadly, neither the people of Israel nor the people of Gaza will ever, or for a long time, be the same again.



As the attention was diverted from the Ukraine conflict, even the Russian government ironically decided to give lessons to Israel on restraint. Although vehemently denied, Iran’s hand has allegedly been seen as the indirect architect of this massacre. But they are most certainly not alone in this. A sanctioned coun- try with limited access to global supply chains cannot be acting in isolation. While Russia, China and Iran have been overtly called, by frenzied media networks, the new axis of evil, there are many more shades of deceit blended into this painful mosaic, painted with the blood of innocent victims. There are those that fund these campaigns, many that provide safe corridors, others that harbor the nerve centers and finally, the worst, those that arm the non-state actors with training and weapons. The top five global intelligence agencies know exactly what is happening around the world. However, this repository of collective intelligence is revealed selectively and in drips to afford self-serving outcomes. It’s a grand chess board where sacrifices are made for a very specific outcome in a ‘dog-eat-dog’ world where sadly, human life, particularly in the emerging and developing world, has little value.



The world is polarized to such an extent that the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) could not get the wording right for a statement on the conflict as various drafts were vetoed and/or rejected by one or the other member of the Big Five. The trust deficit is so wide that Israel picked a part of a statement made by the Secretary-General of the UN António Guterres and demanded his resignation. His fervent calls for restraint have been misunderstood as indifference to terrorism. No one in their right mind can condone an attack on innocent civilians but it’s equally deplorable to see a lack of any restraint from Israel after the immediate response.



Destroying tunnels in Gaza is not going to end the recurrence of terrorism, as technology and human intent will find alternatives. The obvious solution to end this carnage is, as in any conflict, for the conflicting parties to rationally agree on a formula for peaceful co-existence.



It is imminently needed to contain other stake- holders of this conflict by following and stopping the flow of money and weapon sales to stateless actors. Equally important, the Israeli government, as the dominant player, must take responsibility for, firstly, its failure to act on intelligence of impending danger and secondly, held accountable for escalating this campaign, for fear of a political fallout, into a bloody war that could have been avoided. Who will bring accountability to the attack by Hamas or reactions from Israel? Article 3 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) states that “everyone has the right to life, liberty and security of person”. The UN has once again proven to be a toothless and dysfunc- tional organization and we, regrettably, live in a world where there is no recourse for the developing world.



The second Secretary-General of the UN, Dag Hammarskjold’s quote is framed at the UN building in New York: “The UN was not created to take mankind to heaven, but to save humanity from hell.”



How true is this in a world where the mighty prevail and, once again, the suffering of people will be left to be forgotten and the scars to heal with the passing of time?



People and countries continue to fight each other over matters that are inconsequential, particularly when extrapolating these over a period of a million years. Philosophically speaking, this is nothing but self-inflicted suffering almost as if humanity, in the form of a metaphorical moth, is speeding towards a raging fire, ending in self-immolation. Sadly, even if some trigger-happy cowboy brings the current life on the planet to an end in the form of a nuclear fallout, Planet Earth will self-heal as it has done for billions of years and re-emerge with a form of life that will once again be given a chance, to move away from barbarism, and make the world a better place. The reality is that 99% of every form of life that existed from the time of the dinosaurs is now extinct. We live in the age of Anthropocene – “significant human impact on earth’s geology and ecosystems, including but not limited to, human-caused climate change”. Regrettably, humans are mindlessly burning the candle at both ends and destroying both their own kind as well as ruthlessly destroying all other life.



As we get into the last phase of this year, I sincerely hope and pray that good sense prevails and leaders who can influence the course of current conflicts introspect and use their high offices to bring people to- gether to settle differences through negotiations and diplomacy. I pray that people move away from finding differences through race, religion and color and focus on morality and spirituality; this is our only salvation. With this prayer, I wish all our readers a very happy, peaceful, and prosperous 2024.

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‘A World Where The Mighty Prevail And Suffering Will Be Forgotten’

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“The conduct of the Big Five leaves a lot to be desired in the management of conflicts, trade agreements and in financial grants.”
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There has been an explosion in the number of conferences in Africa over the last 12 months. While the diary was always busy, it seems like anyone not engaging with or traveling to some part of Africa exploring ideas, would be missing out. The themes follow the flavor of our present time; the environment, energy (in all its avatars), trade, agriculture, infrastructure, and the complete value chain of finance and education. Most global multilaterals and institutions were in Africa this year and we had a bird’s eye view of almost all the discussions through some very insightful interviews on our television platform, CNBC Africa. The cherry on the top was the BRICS Summit meetings in South Africa with a clear message to the west that the new-world alignments are an indication of the future of our world where a rebalance is inevitable; the incongruity of the past has to be realigned giving a greater voice to developing economies.



I have over the last several years, like many others, been raising an important issue; the relevance of the United Nations (UN) as it stands today. This was further underscored by none other than the Secretary General of the UN. A bit of history will provide context. The League of Nations was the first inter-governmental organization that was established after World War I to ensure peace and stability. It lasted 26 years. The United Kingdom (UK), Japan, Italy and France were the four permanent members of the executive council and only 58 countries (its highest level of member states) were part of the League of Nations. Italy and Japan left the League for their roles in aggression and conflicts. The United States (US) never joined the League of Nations and some departments of the League of Nations were transferred to the UN, which was formed in 1945 after World War II.



The UN has played a constructive role over the last eight decades in maintaining world order, selectively distributing wealth, and while significant good has come from the institutions that have formed part of the UN, the convergence and selective streamlining of power has created ongoing conflicts of interest. At the nerve center of the UN are five permanent members of the Security Council – the US, UK, China, Russia and France (Big Five). The selection criteria for this pedestal was circumstantial and relevant to 1945 as the ‘Big Five’ played a leading role in World War II and had notably amassed the largest number of nuclear weapons.



It has taken over eight decades for the saying, ‘absolute power corrupts absolutely’ to bring to the fore the conflicts of interest that exist in the world today. Benito Mussolini’s words from 1935 – at the time of the Second Italo-Ethiopian War – that “the League is very well when the sparrows shout, but no good at all when the eagles fall out” resonate with the same fervor as we see the Big Five go about the business of the UN; from the power of veto to the allocation of resources. Little has changed in the behavior of the strong.



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“The vicious circle of centralized global control is creating a vortex that is detrimental for the future of mutual benefit and co-existence.” 
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There are several other moving parts particularly relating to Africa. The western powers colonized Africa with the UK, France, Belgium, Italy, Netherlands and Portugal splitting the spoils of a resource-rich continent. The umbilical cord of slavery and colonization did not get severed even after African nations secured their independence and remain the agricultural and mineral resource hinterlands of colonial powers. With education, transparency, the immediacy of information and stark poverty, people have started questioning the hold colonial powers, large multinational corporations and other state actors continue to have over African nations. The uprisings in Niger, Gabon and many other African nations that were French colonies have resulted from inequitable deals (notably uranium from Gabon) that France continues to enjoy from the former colonies. On the one hand, these former colonial powers talk of corruption in Africa but on the other, are the very propagators of this corruption.



The other bloc that needs review is the Commonwealth constituting 56 countries which were mostly former colonies of the UK; 21 of these are in Africa. The head of the Commonwealth is King Charles III and this congregation is now nothing more than an inconsequential talk shop under the ceremonial traditions of a faded empire. The colonial era has ended but the desire to control and have the developing world continue to be subservient to the British Empire has not ended.



Let’s examine the relevance of the two former colonial powers (UK and France) in the context of their economic and political clout in the new world order. While there is a lot of historic wealth and institutional strength in these countries, it’s no secret that they are declining powers. Significant money that has been invested into these two economies over the last two decades has come from the Middle East, China, Russia and the Indian sub-continent. The internal economies are not as resilient as before and political uncertainties and the global sustainability of institutions will be questionable. Both the UK and France have strong tourism and education sectors that are thriving because of student mobility and visitors/tourists traveling from emerging countries.



Additionally, indigenous population growth in both the UK and France has been on the decline; the recent demographic growth has come from migration from all parts of the world. Interestingly, even the sports teams of these countries have a large representation from Asia and Africa. The glaring question is whether these nations should still be part of the Big Five?



The conduct of the Big Five leaves a lot to be desired in the management of conflicts, trade agreements and in financial grants. The US’ share of the global armament market in 2021 was about 38%-40% of the approximately $127 billion. It is in the national interest of the US to fuel conflicts around the world; the same goes for China, the UK, France, Russia and Germany. In a sad dichotomy, the custodians of peace are also the largest arms dealers. They have trade deficits and unemployment when there are no conflicts.



The crisis in Ukraine today is the most recent example of the world being held ransom by a permanent member of the Security Council. But the conflict did not start with that. It’s no secret that the US and EU have been expanding the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and have created instability where it did not exist. The current conflict in Ukraine will embolden China to act recklessly with their own aggression which will also go unchecked. What will continue to thrive will be arms sales to countries that need food for their people and not more guns. These arms exports and other resource-based contracts are allegedly linked to financial aid and grants that are disbursed by multilaterals. There are wheels within wheels when approvals of grants are given to poorer nations.



Another important aspect of note is the power of sanctions. Each time there is a conflict, there are sanctions that have resulted in the forfeiting of overseas assets by defaulters where the dominant nations are the judge, jury and executioners. All overseas assets and reserves of most nations today are held in US dollars, British pounds or in euros which are the default reserve currencies. What was seen as a strength earlier is now being seen as a weakness and threat by emerging economies. Sadly, the vicious circle of centralized global control is creating a vortex that is detrimental for the future of mutual benefit and co-existence. &nbsp;



Over the last few decades, there have been calls from emerging economies to grow the permanent membership of the UN. This has been largely ignored owing to the veto powers of the Big Five. The developed world as we know it today is unlikely to retain their status as other emerging economies begin to overtake them in economic and military might. In recognition of this, the G20 was formed which included the 19 major economies of the world and the EU as an economic bloc. The reality is that there are so many countries in the EU that are protected through their belonging to the EU. The global financial crisis brought out the weaknesses in the economies of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain (PIGS) that have not recovered and with continuing problems will at best remain marginal economies in the near term. Europe in general will face a decline as we progress through the first half of this century. India, in its leadership role of the G20 since December last year, has played an important role in ensuring that the African Union, as an economic and regional bloc, gets a permanent seat at the G20.



The real question is whether the expanded G20 with limited powers (other than to the Big Five) will be seen as adequate by the emerging powers. Consequently, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa in the alliance) has increasingly been seen as an answer to the frustration that has come about from the high-handed behavior of western nations led by the US.



There were many disparities that emerged during the pandemic and African countries, along with other emerging economies, faced the brunt of their citizens (as one example) being given lower priority for vaccinations. The need for indigenization and self-reliance has become a part of every country’s national agenda.



The BRICS meetings in South Africa have now led to the expansion of the bloc with the addition of Egypt, Ethiopia, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. While there is a long way to go in expanding the BRICS mandate, the BRICS bank (New Development Bank) has been established and each of the countries is setting up mechanisms for bilateral trade and payment settlements in currencies other than the reserve currencies. With the establishment of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement, Afreximbank has already taken steps to launch the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) as a cross-border payment system for African countries and has committed significant resources as a credit advance to underwrite this project which will save African countries an estimated $5 billion in annual transaction costs. The impact of all this will be seen in the not-so-distant future.



We are going through perhaps the most defining phase in human evolution. On one side, technology and innovation are disrupting the world and on the other, there are deliberate steps being taken for the realignment of bilateral and multilateral partnerships that will see a very polarized world in the short-term. Let’s hope and pray that when the dust settles, the world is a more inclusive, harmonious and fair place that is respectful to all citizens of the world, where opportunities are not based on religion, ethnicity, gender or any other man-made obstacle. I am reminded of the words of the former President of Poland and Nobel Peace Prize winner, Lech Wałęsa: “The path to a brighter future of the world leads through honest reconciliation of the conflicting interests and not through hatred and bloodshed. To follow that path means to enhance the moral power of the all-embracing idea of human solidarity.”



Amidst all the geopolitics, FORBES AFRICA turns 12 this month. My congratulations to Sid, Roberta, Renuka and the entire team at FORBES AFRICA who work tirelessly to keep the wheels turning slowly but surely towards showcasing the best in entrepreneurship in Africa. I also thank all our sponsors and readers for your continued support.

Rakesh Wahi

The New-World Alignments: An Indication Of Our Future

The June/July 2023 issue of FORBES AFRICA was my favorite reading for the month as it touched on a subject close to my heart – agriculture. In a conversation with Dr Akinwumi Adesina (President, African Development Bank) a few years ago, he talked about the importance of agriculture (one of his ‘High 5’ pillars is ‘Feed Africa’) and the need for the youth in Africa to engage in the sector. His famous words to me at the time were “we need to make agriculture sexy again so that the younger generation is motivated to enter this sector that can transform lives”. 



His words were inspired not only by the historic impor- tance but also by the opportunities being created by innovations in the sector. It was therefore hearten- ing to read stories of young ‘agripreneurs’ from all over Africa who are, through agritech, trying to bring innovation into the agricultural ecosystem and create more efficient supply chains from seed to soil to market.



Agriculture in Africa, as in a number of Asian economies, is the most important sector contributing an average of 20% to 24% of the total Gross Domestic Product of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In absolute terms, there are about 33 million smallholder farms of which an estimated 35,000 commercial farm units are in South Africa; 5,000 to 7,000 of these farms produce 80% of the agricultural output in South Africa.



Farmers living in these smallholder farms (who largely use their hands for cultivation) contribute 70% of the food supply on the continent. Corre- spondingly, 65%-70% of Africans rely on subsistence agriculture for their livelihood.



Considering that Africa has most (about 60%) of the world’s remaining uncultivated arable land, the continent imports between $35 billion to $45 billion of food/agricultural products each year, since only about 10% of the available land is being cultivated. This stems from poor infrastructure development and therefore limited access to a large part of the 700 million hectares to 800 million hectares that can be cultivated. Other than land, other areas that need machinery, technology, infrastructure development and distribu- tion. 



The most critical of all factors is easy access to low-cost finance and while financial institutions talk a good talk, very few provide reasonably-priced working capital to farmers. To make the continent self-suffi- cient, there is a need to invest almost $75 billion to $80 billion annually in the agricultural sector in Africa and there needs to be a concerted effort by policymaker to ensure that the banking sector comes to the party failing which, the continent, despite all its natural ad- vantages, will be unable to feed its growing population and alleviate poverty. 



An important factor today, not just in agriculture, but across all industries, is educa- tion and relevant literacy across all demographics.



A few years after the launch of CNBC Africa in 2007, I started a thought leadership discussion on the Future of Education in SSA. Over the years, we have identified areas including redefining the purpose of education to make it more relevant to today’s times. Each year, we have had some brilliant minds from around the world join the deliberations to bring forth different global perspectives. 



At the 2023 virtual sum- mit in July, we decided to unpack some of the current challenges, particularly relating to youth unemployment in Africa that has reached alarming levels. In many countries, more than 40% of fresh graduates do not find stable employment, even a year after finish- ing university. Part of the problem is the historic gap between the jobs being created and the number of students graduating from university. This problem, however, is being compounded by the transformation of existing jobs that require new skillsets, which ap- plicants do not have; nor can these be secured through unstructured staff development programs.



Owing to a very difficult history of colonization, the African education landscape is unique in its evolution reasonably-priced internet. SSA today has only 22% internet access compared to a global average of 63%. Furthermore, broadband access in Africa comes at a very high cost. In terms of afford- able pricing, India has the fifth lowest internet data rates in the world, with the cost of data at about 17 US cents per gigabyte. In comparison, South Africa at $2 per gigabyte is almost 12 times higher in price than India. The other important nuance is the low Gross Enrollment Ratio (GER) of 9.4% in Africa.



We live in a world today where artificial intel- ligence (AI) is responding to queries predicated on existing datasets. The debates are ongoing about the role of AI in all aspects of the future. No one can predict this accurately but it’s safe to say that if you can imagine something, coding, creativity and AI will find a solution. 



It sounds surreal, but it is the best time to be alive, as we have witnessed more possibili- ties in the last few years than we have seen in decades of analog. ChatGPT, the new kid on the block, has challenged the education arena with so many dimensions and has created a fear of redundancies and whether machines will take over most jobs. 



While these are genuine, short-term apprehensions, we do know that job displacements from what computers and machines can do are different from functions performed by human beings relating to creativ- ity, emotional intelligence, critical thinking, and problem-solving. As some jobs are being taken over by automation, more are being created that will continue to replace the older ones in the form of supervision of automated systems, programming, and maintenance. 



As an exam- ple, during the internet era, new jobs relating to web design and development, digital marketing and cyber security, to name a few, were created. Now, with blockchain, AI and virtual reality, the world is opening up to workplace transformation, where coding, computer sciences and creativity will play an important role in creating job replacements in areas that we are yet to discover.



Another important dimension that was discussed during the Future of Education Summit was the impor- tant and underlying role of the economics of transfor- mation. Conservatively, unemployment costs for coun- tries run into billions of dollars of wasted resources each year. Global GDP could go up by trillions of dollars if unemployment is curtailed. On the other hand, the cost of reskilling is estimated to be between $10,000-$20,000 per new graduate joining a company, which is cumu- latively running into billions of dollars for employers. What this points to is that these costs to business can be optimized if there is closer collaboration and conversations between governments, academic institu- tions, and the corporate world.



In practical terms, the most transformative out- comes are going to come from industry where large employers will define their needs to educational in- stitutions. Colleges and universities need to adapt to these requirements by designing bespoke curriculum that will increasingly become industry-certified. The day is not far when human resources (HR) departments in organizations will be driven by professors who will articulate the needs of the establishment and act as an interface with academia.



The role of humanities will continue to increase critical thinking and creativity into sciences making up for the inherent deficiencies in machines. This blend of the two worlds of Arts and Sciences, which have always been historically segmented into silos, will provide the solutions in the future world of AI. In this context, one of the most interesting discussions was on the concept of “a factory within a university” or “a university within a factory”. 



The possibilities are endless, and the deliberations were animated and intense, but the trend line was clear that for a progressive continent, investment in capacity building is in education so that the future generations of youth have equal opportunities as their peers in other parts of the world.



An important event for us at the ABN Group is the annual All Africa Business Lead- ers Awards (AABLA) ceremony that recognizes business leadership on the continent in vari- ous categories. Being an entrepreneur, I know from three decades of experience that building a business at the best of times is a challenge.



However, when you establish businesses in emerging markets like SSA, where you cannot take anything for granted, the skills, adaptability, perseverance and commitment needed requires leadership to be a lot more versatile and humane. To recognize these heroes from amongst us, we hosted the event for the sec- ond time at the Convention Centre in Sun City, South Africa, before a gathering of 450 business leaders from across Africa.



The event this year was attended by a large contingent of international business leaders from Nigeria, Kenya, Botswana, Namibia, Rwanda, the US and the UAE. We were also privileged to have in our midst, and perform- ing for our guests, two-time Grammy award- winner, Wouter Kellerman. An issue that limits greater participation is the restriction on business visas by South Africa. 



Many guests from Nigeria and Rwanda were unable to trav- el for the AABLA. As we talk about increasing strategic relationships, inter-Africa trade and other collaborations, we are still unable to develop a basic agreement on cross-border travel for Africans. These barriers need to be lifted at the earliest to have meaningful people-to-people engagements for better understanding and social engagements that are essential for building a strong foundation for collaborations.

The Important Conversations Around Agriculture And Education In Africa

The most welcome news on May 8 was the announcement by the World Health Organization (WHO) that Covid-19 is no longer a global emergency. While the stand-down siren has been sounded, we must remain vigilant and take precautions as there are still thousands of people around the world contracting milder forms of the virus; in some cases still resulting in serious issues for people who have underlying health conditions. Some facts from the WHO website suggest that (as of early May 2023), over the last three years, approximately 756 million Covid cases were recorded with approximately 7 million people who lost their lives. 



Assuming the global population at about 8 billion, this translates to almost 9.5% of the population being infected and approximately 0.09% of the population having died. Comparing this with the Spanish Flu that started in February 1918 and lasted approximately two years, 500 million people or a third of the then global population were infected and about 50 million people died (3.3% of the global population). Though spread a century apart, these are events, particularly Covid-19, that have prepared us to deal with and overcome adversity together as a global community.



There were many lessons from this dark period in human history, the most significant of which was the importance of leadership at all levels. Some countries, with comparable economic, demographic, social and developmental status, managed better than their peers. A trait that was consistent with good leaders was effective, clear and periodic communications. There is no greater leadership failure in a crisis than delayed, ineffective and inconsistent communications. People understand problems as it’s a sad reality of the majority of human existence. Reinforcing problems and assigning blame only spreads uncertainty and creates panic which is synonymous with most politicians; what people want to know is that they are secure and that appropriate, quantifiable and urgent action is being taken to protect them.



What the last three years have further reinforced is that the world is not and will never be an equal place; the disparity between the developed and developing world will continue to grow, particularly if third world countries do not break the shackles of infinite bondage and over-reliance on the first world countries. No one has any interest in seeing Africa become self-sustainable except the people of Africa and the focus now should be on building sustainable ecosystems within geographic proximity. Never has the need for localization been more critical than now. 



Never has there been a need for more African unity ever before, than now. Guided by a polarized world, African nations cannot get submerged in futile politics and the self-serving defence and economic policies of Western countries. Even if they plunder their combined resources through a false sense of ego and self-righteousness, the developed world will continue to have sustainable reserves for several generations. The African agenda needs to be focused on consolidating its position by rapidly strengthening and transforming intra-African relationships.



As the threat to life from the pandemic has reduced, people in general have begun to get back to a near normal way of life. Travel and tourism have bounced back with a vengeance and despite high costs, people are making up for the time lost from 2020-22. The war in Ukraine has continued with no immediate solution that has compelled a change in geopolitical alignments. 



This event, in my opinion, is going to impact the future much more than even the pandemic or any other historic economic crisis. The trust deficit that exists between the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is at its highest. With a deep divide in the UN, no decision or change can ever be made if there is a conflict with any of the permanent members of the UNSC. Changes to the structure of the UN are being demanded by member nations but even as membership is being expanded in key functions of the UN, the final authority and ‘veto’ still rests with the five countries that not only have contradictory interest but also have a deep fissure in ideologies between the United States, the United Kingdom and France on one side and China and Russia on the other.  



Sadly, this very aggressive demeanor resulting from the Ukraine conflict has witnessed the dramatic and wasteful increase in defence budgets of all countries around the world. Rather than spending money on green energy, ESG, housing, healthcare, education, and alleviating poverty, resources are senselessly being allocated to defence systems and extremely destructive munitions that will lead to the doom of our future. Paradoxically, the price of this perceived and notional security will be the very reason that people will continue to live in bondage and poverty. 



The beneficiaries are just a few countries that are the usual suspects in much that is going wrong with the world. My question therefore remains–‘where does accountability lie in the free world’ where, shrouded in extreme conflicts of interest, the ‘judge, jury and the executioner’ are the same? The smallest issues in governance in the developing world are highlighted and severely dealt with through harsh measures but there seems to be no apprehension about the larger issues that are crippling the world.



These inconsistencies have alarmed and prompted reactions from the oil-rich Arab world. The unilateral imposition of sanctions and freezing the assets of nations by Western countries is creating an insecurity for the future. For perhaps the first time and a marked change from historic conformity, there is an apparent move by Saudi Arabia to sidestep Western-imposed sanctions and build harmony within the Middle East. Syria has been invited back into the Arab League after 12 years and Saudi Arabia has also started playing a pivotal role in settling the various conflicts between Syria, Iran and Yemen. It would appear that with the start of consular services between the Arab world and Iran, and with Iraq largely neutralized, things could gradually return to normal within the Persian Gulf. These developments are happening as China and Russia get closer in a strategic collaboration and China, with its large balance sheet, is starting to play a more active role in the Middle East. These realignments are expected to provide more security, both financial and strategic, to nations in Asia.



European countries have supported various countries in Africa through aid packages for various reasons including a sense of responsibility for historic injustices like colonization and slavery. The source of the aid, by country, can be traced according to the language spoken by the European countries i.e. English, German, Dutch, French or Portuguese. This aid has come at a high cost as a lot of tangible benefits for donors were traded in lieu of the aid. A lot of exploitation has taken place in extractive industries to include oil, gold, diamonds, precious stones, minerals etc. and agricultural products. 



Very little value addition has happened on the continent and no effort has been made to create an enabling environment. Interestingly, the United States has so far had an erratic and inconsistent policy on Africa that has given the Chinese a headstart on establishing a strong foothold in Africa including but not limited to two permanent military bases that have been established in East Africa and West Africa. These developments, along with Russian and European interests, will polarize the countries in Africa and developing independent bilateral and multilateral intra-Africa partnerships may get adversely influenced. Remaining neutral and non-aligned is a key ingredient to self-determination, self-reliance and enhanced sovereignty; very few African countries have managed to keep this neutrality.



A factor that has remained congruous for financial security is the dominance of the US Dollar (USD) as a reserve currency. A lot of currencies have remained pegged to the USD. However, with the growing mistrust with US policies, the rise of the Chinese Yuan and a distinct move to create mechanisms for the bilateral settlement of payments between countries, it is likely that over the medium term the USD will lose its place as a reserve currency. The Afreximbank’s brainchild, the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) to facilitate inter-convertibility amongst African currencies has yet to be finalized as it still faces several structural impediments although the Afreximbank is providing a $3 billion settlement cover as an overdraft facility. The greatest saving for Africans will be the $5 billion paid in transfer fees to international banks.



Less reliance on the USD will give rise to alternative means of storing wealth. While gold is the most likely reserve medium in the short-term, crypto and digital assets will most likely dominate the future of convertibility, transferability and storage in a decentralized and secure manner. While cryptocurrencies are a relatively new area, their mass adaptation will be the most transformative milestone in the history of financial services. Although there is growing adaptation in Nigeria (eNaira), Kenya, South Africa and Zimbabwe, African countries are trailing in the crypto journey. Education and regulations along with cultural changes and building basic trust in this digital asset will play an indispensable role in the adaptation of this far-reaching and revolutionary change.



Despite the general negativity in current affairs and the economic volatility and correction caused by the failure of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, the general market trends have remained positive. Most countries in Europe and Asia have seen a turnaround post-pandemic. In some countries like the United Arab Emirates (UAE), in particular the emirate of Dubai, the first quarter reports, across all sectors, have been exemplary. 



The first indication was on the travel and tourism industry where things are getting back to 2019 levels. Despite the high costs of flights and hotels, the tourism sector has been thumping since October 2022. The property market is once again buoyant with prices having shot up and the construction frenzy is back to normal with developers working hard to keep up with demand. Coming from all over the world, enticed by excellent policies, safety, stability and long term visas, there is an exponential increase in the numbers of people making the UAE their residence.



African countries have started making their own recovery post the pandemic. Traveling through some of the countries, one gets the distinct feeling that governments are working to bring about the necessary change. The change in Kenya away from dynasty politics will be a great pilot to see whether the country thrives under a new leadership or will get sucked back into the maladies of power and abuse. There are smaller yet shining stars like Rwanda that continue to give hope and the smaller economies like Botswana that are showing tremendous promise. 



We have an arduous journey ahead but we must plod along irrespective of the odds and remember the closing stanza of Robert Frost’s famous poem: “The woods are lovely, dark and deep. But I have promises to keep. And miles to go before I sleep. And miles to go before I sleep.”

Lessons From A Dark Period And The Way Forward

As a departure from our historic travel to Europe, my wife and I decided to do something different this year. I suggested Nepal as an alternative, which was instantly accepted. My choice was mainly because the last visit to Nepal was marred by the unfortunate earthquake in April 2015; the horrors of which remain etched in my memory. That year, I had taken 12 members of our university team in Dubai on a team-building exercise to trek up to the Everest Base Camp (EBC). Sadly we had to abandon our trip as the earthquake struck a few hours after we landed in Nepal’s capital Kathmandu. The devastation from this natural disaster stayed fresh in my mind: we had seen numerous bodies being pulled out of the wreckage as we tried to navigate through the rubble and debris without shelter or food for two days before we could fly back home safely to Dubai. EBC had remained on my mind for all these years and owing to work commitments and family pressure, I was unable to plan another expedition. More than anything else, I realized that I could not risk the lives of younger team members who have different responsibilities than an old man who is now hobbling through the last lap of his life.


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="alignleft size-full is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Rakesh-Wahi-in-Nepal-in-January-2023.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-57941" width="385" height="468" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Rakesh-Wahi-in-Nepal-in-January-2023.jpg 841w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Rakesh-Wahi-in-Nepal-in-January-2023-246x300.jpg 246w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Rakesh-Wahi-in-Nepal-in-January-2023-768x935.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 385px) 100vw, 385px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">In Nepal in January 2023</figcaption></figure></div>


One of the reasons that I wanted to get away for a few weeks was to begin writing my second book (the first, Be a Lion, was published in November 2016).



I have always found myself to be at my creative best in quiet and cold environments. Previous choices, while writing my first book, were Montreux (Switzerland), Edinburgh (Scotland) and Prague (Czech Republic). 



Kathmandu in January seemed like a consistent choice.



With over three decades of travel around the world, our experience in Nepal was one of our best. Kathmandu is not without its infrastructure challenges; nor can you miss the ugly sight of excessive and dangerous electric cabling dangling all over. What makes up for some of the challenges is the weather, the breathtaking scenery and more than anything, the warmth and hospitality of the Nepalese people.



We stayed at the Gokarna Forest Resort about a 30-minute drive from Kathmandu. This jewel of a property was an old hunting retreat for the Nepalese royal family and is nested in a dense forest (with amazing wildlife) that in its midst has one of the most spectacular and challenging golf courses. The management and staff of the resort took hospitality to a notch above the best in the world; in short, it was a perfect choice for a retreat.



The highlight of our trip to Nepal was the helicopter ride to EBC (17,600 feet/5,364 meters) and Kalapathar (18,400 feet/5,644 meters). Since it was a clear day, we got great visibility of Mount (Mt) Everest from Kalapathar. On the whole it was one of the most magical moments in my life and another tick on my bucket list.



What was disheartening, however, was to see that in January, there was very little snow either at EBC, Kalapathar or on any of the towering peaks around Mt Everest. This is a stark reminder of the impact of the depleting ozone layer and the consequent changing weather patterns. The sad reality is that in the period ahead, this change is likely to impact the flow of water from the Himalayan Mountains into the various river systems across the subcontinent. Leaving Kathmandu was emotional for both my wife, Saloni, and I, but we left with the warm thought that this would form part of our periodic travel map in the years to come.


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/wahi111-1024x775.png" alt="" class="wp-image-57942" width="576" height="435" srcset="https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/wahi111-1024x775.png 1024w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/wahi111-300x227.png 300w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/wahi111-768x581.png 768w, https://cms.forbesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/wahi111.png 1183w" sizes="(max-width: 576px) 100vw, 576px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The towering peaks around Mt Everest</figcaption></figure></div>


Traveling back home to Dubai is always reassuring as the city serves as the epicenter of all our activity. Coming home provides the sense of safety and security like no other and was perhaps the cushion needed before getting back to a more hectic routine.



Being the travel hub of the world today, most friends, family and business associates are invariably transiting through Dubai. Additionally, a distinct change over the years has been the number of African friends who have relocated to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for different reasons but most importantly, to take advantage of its strategic location at the geographic center of the business world.



The number of Africa-centered events here have also increased over the years.



A recent event that was most impactful was the Invest Africa roadshow conducted by the Rwandan Embassy in the UAE along with the Rwandan Development Board.



The response to the presentations was resounding with many UAE businessmen looking at investing into Africa with a positive lens. I am a great believer that these outreach events by investment promotion agencies are critical for all African countries. The Middle East has abundant capital that is looking for stable investments and these presentations catalyze changing the negative perceptions of the African continent.



The global gloom has not subsided. It is not just the senseless war in Ukraine but the recent humanitarian disaster caused by the earthquake in Turkey and Syria.



Over 50,000 lives were lost and thousands of people left without homes; all in a matter of hours after the earthquake struck. What was heartening, however, was to see the global community rally together and provide much-needed medical, food and other compassionate aid to the two countries. It will take a long time for these countries to recover from this disaster. It is also a constant reminder for countries and regions on fault lines to remain proactive and enforce construction guidelines while planning infrastructure projects; there is no control over nature and the mysterious changes invisible to the human eye will continue to work silently; in this instance, the tectonic plate on which Arabia sits has been gradually moving North towards Europe.



An important milestone during this period has been the elections in Nigeria with the usual concern regarding a fair process. As President Bola Tinubu prepares to take charge of the country, there is hope for change for the better and that a genuine effort is made by the new administration to improve the lives of average Nigerians.



The lack of power in the country remains horrific and so does the unimaginable shortage of petrol for one of the world’s largest producers of oil.



These problems, however, are completely eclipsed by the recent demonetization of the currency and the ensuing shortage during the elections.



Over the last few months most people were unable to draw money from ATMs and banks causing a major crisis in a country. It’s expected that the currency shortage will miraculously disappear now that the elections are over. Let’s pray that Nigeria reemerges from the ashes of poor governance of the last decade. We are all expectantly waiting to see some rays of hope; particularly in economies like Nigeria, that can have a material impact on the entire continent.



You see the power of hope when over 500 dynamic ladies from different walks of life get together to discuss the future. This was the outcome at the FORBES WOMAN AFRICA Leading Women Summit (#LWS2023) in Pretoria, South Africa, on March 8, International Women’s Day. The annual event, in its eighth episode, was organized by the ABN Group as an in-person celebration post the pandemic. The event in 2021 and 2022 was held as a virtual one and we did not have the opportunity to meet some of the ladies who had participated.



This year, we witnessed an excellent day packed with wonderful conversations that was kick-started by South Africa’s Minister of International Relations and Cooperation Dr Naledi Pandor (whom we all deeply admire) who delivered the welcome address to a full house. She spoke about all the achievements but also highlighted some statistics on women in managerial positions and on boards of companies that needed to be improved significantly through sustained activism. An important highlight was the number of young women who participated both as speakers and as participants.



I am personally a great supporter of the development of women. In my welcome speech at the FORBES WOMAN AFRICA Awards held on the same day, my key message was that while addressing the gaps regarding equal opportunities, gender-based violence, equal pay, workplace discrimination, lack of financial inclusion etc., the key need is to focus on the education of women at the grassroots level; this requires making sure that our girls are educated and receive the same opportunities at school, at vocational centers and at colleges. This is the important mindset change, where parents must give equal importance to the education of all their children. If we get this right within the family fabric of society, the rest of the change will be systemic.



We need a steady pipeline of well-educated and trained women in every sphere of activity who can lead their teams with confidence and not be a part of checking boxes. Since the room was packed with an inspired audience, I requested each one of them to take it as a mission to educate at least one girl child during their lifetime. This would be truly transformative and not just an ongoing compromise.



The FORBES WOMAN AFRICA Awards are always a delight to witness. Other than the high-quality performance for the opening by two-time Grammy-award winner, Wouter Kellerman, various awards categories were won by dynamic women from across the continent including Rwandan sports star Salima Mukansanga, Africa’s first female football referee at the Men’s World Cup for FIFA 2022.



The winners of the FORBES WOMAN AFRICA Lifetime Achievement Award this year were Louisa Mojela and Gloria Serobe who are an inspiration to future generations, as they followed other giants like Wendy Luhabe, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and Dr Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka who have been winners of the award in previous years. Listening to the various conversations and imbibing the positivity in the room, we can infer that the world must continue to pay close attention to what is happening in Africa. This is indeed a region on the move and the younger generation is not going to accept the status quo. They are asking all the right questions.

‘Pay Close Attention To What Is Happening In Africa’

When I was packing my bags to leave South Africa at the end of November 2022, the country was going through political lobbying and hobnobbing that seemed to be far more fragmented than I had witnessed from my first visit in 2004. As I had predicted in 2004/5 and have spoken and written about for years, the time for true democracy in the country has come. This is not about any one individual or event, but history is evidence that nations emerging from any oppression or a change in system take time through disillusionment, to cast their old beliefs/misplaced loyalties and embrace change. The greatest example of this political change was seen in India that has gone through a very similar transition in its political system after 1947.



The Indian National Congress party lost national consensus in 1977 (30 years post-Independence), after which there was a long era of coalition governments the most successful of which was the BJP-led alliance from 1999 to 2004. No other coalition government between 1977 and 1999 managed to survive a complete five-year term in office. The Congress Party in India was almost annihilated in the 2019 elections when the party failed to secure 10% in parliament (less than 50 seats in a house of 543). It took 30 years to lose power and 72 years of dynasty politics for the party to be completely routed through implosion. There is no better lesson in political history than this experience to learn from. As I had written in 2021, the era of coalitions is likely arriving in South Africa and so has the emergence of new political parties that will provide the checks and balances that are desperately needed. There will be expected fragmentation in the provinces; the jury is now out whether the ruling but bankrupt African National Congress (ANC) will be able to hold on to a 51% electoral majority vote in 2024. Sadly, this process will bring with it a period of continued uncertainty and indecisiveness further compounding the problems that the country already faces.



Interestingly, there are about 25 African countries that are going to polls in the next two years. Amongst many others, these include Nigeria, Zimbabwe and Gabon in 2023 and South Africa, Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, Mauritius, Rwanda, Ghana and Ethiopia in 2024. This is therefore, going to be an exceedingly important phase in the African continent where people will exercise their vote, after the pandemic, when being faced with growing unemployment, food, water and power shortages, growing economic disparity and increasing corruption. 2022 was also a telling year in Africa when the voters in Kenya surprised everyone by electing President William Ruto who defeated Raila Odinga, in a stark departure from historic dynasty politics.



In a paper published by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies in September 2022, research associate Paul Nantulya wrote: “Kenya’s 2022 general election has not followed the familiar script of voters exercising their civic duty only to helplessly sit back and watch their votes be manipulated. Kenyans have attempted to correct this through comprehensive constitutional reforms, an active and vigilant citizenry, and an increasingly independent judiciary. In the process, Kenyans have carved out a roadmap for themselves and democratic reformers across the continent to follow to enhance the integrity and legitimacy of their electoral process.”



These words are going to echo and reverberate in many countries as they head towards greater governance and accountability. The power of the people cannot be underestimated or their benevolence taken for granted in perpetuity. Their patience will run out bringing about the much-needed change. Ruling parties should pay heed to the needs of their people and take action that will create opportunity for greater good and not benefit a small section of society.



In addition to the expectation of these results for nationals, this is going to be a period of anticipation for investors into Africa. Over the last few years the common theme from Africa has been about the growing population that will bring about exponential growth rates and consequently economic opportunity. Every sector is expecting rapid growth to cater to the growing consumer demand. Other than historic investments in mining and extractive ventures, peers are gearing up for additional investments into infrastructure, industry, agriculture, power generation and distribution, education, retail and many other sectors. Technology and innovation are also playing a critical role in disrupting business models in retail, communications and banking. The outreach activities from African countries into the Middle East (a region known to be a net exporter of capital) are higher than ever before. This is a good time for policy-makers to ensure that on one hand, a more investor-friendly approach (including but not limited to simplifying visa procedures) is taken but on the other, incentives must only be given for long-term investments, industrial development and beneficiation. African economies will never be able to stand on their feet if raw material/minerals or agricultural produce continue to be exported and no value-added industries are set up locally.



A major risk in Africa remains currency risk. Some of the major economies that have fared badly are Nigeria, Ghana and South Africa. The Ghanaian Cedi in particular took a bruising starting at about Cedi6 to the US$ at the start of 2022 and ending the year between Cedi12-14 to the US$. The Nigerian Naira has devalued almost 50% since 2020 and remains a very volatile currency with no end in sight. The bigger problem in Nigeria remains remitting funds out of the country where businesses and individuals can lose up to 30% value while buying US dollars in the open market. The South African Rand has also remained extremely volatile. When we invested in 2006/2007, the Rand was at approximately ZAR6 to a US$ and is currently trading around ZAR17 to a US$. This volatility, coupled with the high-interest rates, particularly in West Africa, makes business expensive, unpredictable and unattractive particularly for foreign investors. The situation is not getting any better as borrowings are continuing to increase with countries like South Africa, Kenya, Ghana and Rwanda having debt to GDP ratios of between 70% to 100%; while these numbers are not as alarming as those of Japan, US, Singapore or other European countries, the ability of most African countries to repay debt is questionable. This forces inequitable negotiations with lenders that is continuing to impact growth.



It is evident that the continent will continue to suffer the historic maladies as mentioned above. This can however, slowly but surely, be mitigated through fiscal discipline, policy reforms and good governance. Key is the political will to make it happen.



While we have learned to deal with and live with Covid, we must not forget the experiences of the last 24 months. China has finally abandoned its zero-Covid policy that is likely to have an adverse impact as there will be a wave of visitors likely traveling all over the world. While this will give a boost to the tourism sector, it is possible that we may see a spurt of fresh strands of Covid in our midst.



I would advise against throwing caution to the wind; people must continue to behave responsibly and adhere to Covid protocols to prevent the spread of the pandemic. A lot of countries are watching the news coming from the East and some travel protocols are being put in place to ensure that tests are carried out as well as the mandatory vaccination certificates that are now a part of travel documents everywhere.



On the festive side, Dubai was at its colorful best during the year-end break between Christmas and New Year’s Eve. The city reportedly attracted over 12 million tourists in the first nine months of 2022 and possibly over 16 million for the year getting close to its pre-Covid numbers and re-establishing itself as one of the preferred global holiday destinations. The numbers in the last quarter were definitely skewed because of the FIFA World Cup in Qatar when a large number of spectators camped in Dubai and took advantage of the incredible logistics that had been set up by the Dubai Tourism department to ensure that there was sufficient hotel capacity and flights between Dubai and Doha. New Year’s Eve was a fairy tale experience, like every year, with thousands of visitors gathering to watch the fireworks at various landmark sites across the city; the most prominent of which was Burj Khalifa. There is not a single bit of real estate in Dubai that is not lit up to celebrate the coming of the New Year in an inclusive manner and without any incidents of crime or unpleasantness.



I often wonder why we are unable to get this kind of celebration in Africa. Although the continent has so much to offer, Africans leave behind this rich heritage and natural beauty and converge to other destinations around the world. As an example, Johannesburg is a dead city during New Year’s Eve. So much could be done to create magic in such a wonderful setting as in Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban, Nairobi, Kigali and so many other exotic destinations across the continent.



What would it take to transform some of Africa’s main cities into tourist destinations with activities for families so that African culture and cuisine can be sampled by people from around the world? This needs to change and we need to make sure that African gems do not remain best-kept secrets; when visitors experience the rich culture, game reserves, sports, beaches and the warm African hospitality they will spontaneously and deliberately make the continent a destination for leisure, hospitality and consequently business. Wishing all our readers a very prosperous and healthy 2023.

From Coalitions To Currencies To Celebration, Thoughts On The Continent

It was wonderful to see the revival of the Forbes Global CEO conference that was held post Covid in Singapore in October this year. It was great to reconnect with global leaders as well as meet Forbes’ extended family from different parts of the world. The highlight of the event was the declaration from the organizers that the net worth in the hall of 400 delegates was $500 billion; it wasn’t surprising to hear that number considering that 30% of the wealth came from the richest man in the room – and third richest in the world as of November – &nbsp;Gautam Adani, whose speech was a leaf from ‘Invest India’. The mood was buoyant in Asia and despite all the troubles around the world, there was much optimism about the future of Asian economies including the rich GCC countries that remain optimistic because of stable oil prices. This was a sharp contrast from my stay in Europe in July and August where the metaphorical and absolute temperatures are getting to be a point of concern about the future.



I was also fortunate to go back to Namibia (after 10 years), at the request of Dr David Namwandi (the country’s former minister of education), to deliver a talk to a mixed audience of ministers, diplomats, businesspeople, and alumni at The International University of Management. Namibia remains a small country by all standards and is still highly reliant on a rich and powerful neighbor as evident from the fact that almost 90% of all retail brands are South African brands. However, Namibia is an economy on the move and determined on chartering its own future in the years to come. Not only has the country recently discovered oil but has also pioneered the green energy revolution through the green hydrogen project – Hyphen, which is a multi-billion-dollar investment that will take the country towards energy security and clean energy. I was particularly impressed with the quality of executives I met at the Namibian Investment Promotion and Development Board who have a clear mandate from the government to catalyze investments.



This push is becoming more evident from almost all Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries that see the opportunity being created by the vacuum from a weak South Africa; that is still tottering in an abyss of short- to medium-term economic gloom. I am a believer that South Africa will regain its position on the African and global stage in the medium-term, but the political uncertainties and institutional failures will see a gloomy outlook for the next decade. This is no different from Nigeria which is the other straggling economy in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with huge potential but poor political leadership. The economy that has the greatest opportunity over the next five years is Kenya. The country has new leadership and perhaps a good chance to bring about changes to take advantage of the global interest in SSA. Our problems in Africa are however nothing compared to what humanity faces today.



As we end 2022, we seem to be meandering in a state of oblivion where the blind continues to lead the blind and there is no sight of the ‘one-eyed king’ who can provide leadership or direction in a compass-less global society that is appearing to be more morally bankrupt than ever before. It’s not as though we do not know the problems, or we do not have the solutions. School children are standing and screaming solutions before a deaf audience of leaders who continue to provide lip service to imminent issues; they are silent as self-interest remains the guiding principle of our actions. Words come cheap and we can make all the commitments at global platforms, but the sad reality is that nothing will change.



My views on the failure of the United Nations (UN) as an apex body to regulate the safety and security of mankind remain unabated. The organization needs a complete overhaul if the world order needs to be rebalanced and powerful and developed nations held accountable for their actions. However, that remains a wishful dream like many others. However, toothless as the office of the UN Secretary General (UNSG) is, you cannot ignore the appeal of António Guterres&nbsp;before an audience of global leaders at COP 27 in Egypt (except for all who matter and who were conspicuous by their absence including leaders from China and India).



For those who missed reading the UNSG’s speech, I am quoting from it: “This UN Climate Conference is a reminder that the answer is in our hands.&nbsp;And the clock is ticking.&nbsp;We are in the fight of our lives.&nbsp;And we are losing.&nbsp;Greenhouse gas emissions keep growing.&nbsp;Global temperatures keep rising. And our planet is fast approaching tipping points that will make climate chaos irreversible.&nbsp;We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot still on the accelerator. The war in Ukraine, other conflicts, have caused so much bloodshed and violence and have had dramatic impacts all over the world. But we cannot accept that our attention is not focused on climate change. We must of course work together to support peace efforts and end the tremendous suffering. But climate change is on a different timeline, and a different scale. It is the defining issue of our age.&nbsp;It is the central challenge of our century. It is unacceptable, outrageous and self-defeating to put it on the back burner. Indeed, many of today’s conflicts are linked with growing climate chaos. The war in Ukraine has exposed the profound risks of our fossil fuel addiction. Today’s crises cannot be an excuse for backsliding or greenwashing.&nbsp;If anything, they are a reason for greater urgency, stronger action, and effective accountability.” And it continues….



These are the helpless words coming from one of the most influential men on earth. Let’s examine some of the realities on the ground.



It’s not surprising to see that all nations are behind the curve on their ‘carbon zero’ strategy. It’s a well-known fact that the developing world will not have the resources to make the changes and the commitments made by the developing countries have not been kept and as and when the allocations are made, they will come with caveats that will most certainly bind them to donor nations for all times to come. These caveats are not clear right now but going by history there will be no free lunches during this transfer of technology. Given that the developed world is struggling with an energy crisis right now, most of them are unlikely to be able to allocate significant funds towards developing countries particularly in Africa.



There is major reluctance on the part of policy-makers to make drastic changes in policy to get large and profitable corporates to participate in this transition. If the world is indeed at risk of perishing and if the words of the UNSG are to be treated seriously, there needs to be drastic action. Let’s explore the banking sector briefly. In 2018, the banks across the globe collectively made a profit after tax of $1.36 trillion. This number is significantly higher for 2021 and 2022. It doesn’t take a scientist to understand that one year’s profits from all the banks or even 50% of profits for a period of three to five years will provide adequate resources to start a meaningful process of change. Similarly, the tobacco industry, the gaming industry, casinos and all luxury goods companies, just to name a few, should mandatorily be required to forgo profits for the next few years. Ultimately, the banks have made their money from high-interest costs and fees; there is no reason why they should not see good sense in contributing back for a change. As far-fetched as these ideas may sound, this is one of the few ways to act; desperate times need desperate measures or then let’s accept our fate.



There are also some other realities that we must face. Very few are taking the magical three letters of ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) seriously. In a recent conversation with a group of private equity players that have many multilateral financial institutions as their limited partners, the senior executives made very controversial statements like: ‘if we are faced with a choice between ESG and profits, we will choose profits every time’. ESG is therefore a buzzword in our world of reporting; everyone is going through the motions of ticking the boxes, but the true intention remains money over everything else. We have all the management guru’s and consulting companies and the big four preaching ESG and the importance of purpose; the reality is that the gap between intention and reality is continuing to increase.



I cannot but reflect on the words of former US President Barack Obama: “We are the&nbsp;first generation&nbsp;to feel the effect of climate change and the&nbsp;last generation&nbsp;who can do something about it.” Let’s not procrastinate and make it a true intent to start galvanizing resources towards fixing our problems before it’s too late.

‘Desperate Times Need Desperate Measures Or Then Let’s Accept Our Fate’

AS ALL COUNTRIES CONTINUE to deal with meteoric inflation caused mainly by high energy prices and the disruption of supply chains, the conflict in Ukraine continues unabated. There is food and water shortage, fires, droughts in places, floods in others, unemployment, and rising prices of essential goods just to name some of the calamities being faced by almost everyone in the world today. 



The developed world can sustain the hardship in the short term but if the root cause of the issues is not dealt with expeditiously, there will be far-reaching consequences for everyone. More than anyone else, the real victims of the current brutality are the people of Ukraine, especially children, the elderly and the vulnerable. I have been listening to the numerous debates on television about the aftermath of this catastrophic event in history and worry about the basic understanding that our learned analysts have on the repercussions of a country devastated by conflict. They should simply ask the people of Iraq or Afghanistan who have had the most recent experience of conflict; a generation of development is going to pass them by. War is the surest way to go back to the stone ages and the consequences of this carnage will linger on in the form of hatred that will not only foster generational discord but will have societal degeneration resulting in more sociological disorder.



It is commonsense that for any dispute to be resolved, the leaders of the conflicting sides must be brought together. The word ‘parley’ is a noun that has been used through time immemorial to have a direct dialogue between adversaries to settle disputes. Intermediaries may strengthen you morally, spiritually, legally and in the case of conflict may provide you armaments to defend yourself, but they cannot ever find a solution to the dispute. More than anything, intermediaries always have different interests. The effort of global leaders from the beginning has been and should remain to bring the two leaders (Russia and Ukraine) into a room to thrash out the issues and arrive at a solution. Rather than look at broader issues of the EU and NATO, the parties should look at what is better for them as neighbors and erstwhile allies of the cold war.



As more blood is shed, every continuing day of the war will result in the hardening of positions of both sides and the end will be in the systematic destruction of decades of development. Arming Ukraine is not the answer as their stronger adversary is not going to be silenced through retaliation. Each building and bridge that is destroyed will have to be rebuilt and every citizen displaced will need to be provided for. No third party will do this for Ukraine. The leaders in Ukraine should know that there are no free lunches, and irrespective of outcomes they will eventually be burdened by so much moral and material debt that they will never be able to come out of the shackles of infinite financial bondage. More than anything else, in paying these debts, Ukraine will become an agricultural and mineral hinterland for the extended boundaries of a few nations that are fueling the war. The choice today is nothing other than between the ‘devil or the deep blue sea’.



Sanctions are not an all-inclusive answer to this conflict. The impact of sanctions is being felt not just by Russia but by all countries in the world but mostly the EU. Most countries are far removed from the problem and remain helpless spectators. There are world leaders who have negotiated with and who Putin will listen to, and it is time that leverage is used for the neighbors to settle this dispute in a bilateral discussion. The UN Security Council (permanent and non-permanent members) with the participation of the UN Secretary General must demand a ceasefire and ask the leaders to meet in a neutral territory and resolve the issue. Both sides will need ‘Stand-Still’ assurances during this period, and these must be provided with integrity. A sensible solution is possible, and this route must be expedited to cool down temperatures and stop this senseless conflict.



On another note, as the temperatures start soaring during summers in the Middle East, my wife and I visited the UK and Switzerland this year during July/August. Europe has always been the haven for the summer holidays to get respite from the high temperatures in the Middle East. Not any longer and this is not a one-off occurrence. It didn’t matter whether we were in London, Edinburgh, Geneva, Lausanne, Crans Montana or Zermatt, it was difficult to escape the unusually piercing heat in the afternoon. What we are seeing now is going to become a way of life for Western countries. Climate change is sadly irreversible and countries in Europe must adapt to this new reality as none of the countries are prepared for the scorching heat.



In this context I am reminded of my tenure at the Antarctic during my military career. I was selected, in 1987, as part of the seventh scientific expedition to start building India’s second permanent base in the Antarctic at a place called Maitri (latitude 70.76 South, longitude 11.73 East) in Queen Maud Land. The experience was one of the greatest adventures of my life as we toiled hard through blizzards and whiteouts for four months to finish, despite all the elements, the foundation work of the new station. What I am reflecting on today is not so much about the back-breaking work that we did there but what I saw from an ecological disaster perspective and the sad realities we are faced with today because we failed to act in time. Even as far back as 1987, scientists had flagged global warming and the need to course-correct. Icebergs the size of large islands were breaking off from the Antarctic continental shelf and floating into the Southern Ocean. The protective ozone layer was being gradually disseminated and the impact of ultraviolet radiations was predicted to have a far-reaching impact on rising temperatures and sea levels.



As a quick recap, the continent of Antarctica is 98% covered by ice that has an average thickness of 2.5 kilometers and is the largest reservoir of fresh water in the world; holding 70% of global fresh water. Hypothetically, if this and the ice in the polar region of the Northern pole melts, the sea levels across the world will go up by 230 feet, submerging every coastal city on our planet. This is an alarming thought. Furthermore, it is projected that by the year 3000, ocean levels around the world will go up by 13 feet. If you think your grandchildren will benefit from beach-front properties that you have willed them, think again!!



When I returned from the Antarctic and after leaving the forces in 1988, I started speaking at various events regarding the need for a drastic reduction in our Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) and Hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) emissions and single-use plastics; my words fell on deaf years. In the following years, I started reaching out to high schools in Dubai to talk about the future of, and the need to preserve and safeguard, our planet. The simple analogy is “how will your body survive if your skin is peeled off”. The school children were more attentive and responsive to the discussion as they perhaps understood that they would likely see the impact of global warming within their lifetime. This was 34 years ago. What we have seen during this period is the gradual depletion of the ozone layer which is now becoming more blatant and harsher as we are exposed to the changing weather patterns arising from global warming. We have seen artificial intelligence (AI) rendered images of future cities by 2050, but no one is paying attention to the acidification of our oceans and the impact on marine life by 2050; an incidence of dying fish owing to possibly pollution have come up this year in the Oder River which borders Poland and Germany. It is flagged as an environmental and ecological disaster. This is just the start of the destruction of marine life, whether by drought or pollution, which will have a material impact on the world. While the subject is being dealt with, the sad reality is that the pace of change may never catch up with the impending crisis.



Coming closer to home, things on the African continent remain extremely volatile as well. The impact of global events always has a knock-off impact on African economies and it’s no surprise to see the repercussions of supply chain disruptions and food shortages in different parts of Africa. The short-term issues will continue to be vexing but my long-term prognosis on the future in Africa remains positive. This was validated by a breakfast meeting that I had a few weeks back in Johannesburg with some extremely enterprising individuals. The meeting was hosted by a long-time friend and outstanding businesswoman, Sneha Shah, who was formerly the Managing Director of Reuters Africa and has just finished her most recent assignment as the Managing Director of Business Accelerator at the London Stock Exchange Group, based in New York. Most of the attendees were young business leaders who were focused on relooking at ‘purpose’ and wanting to make a meaningful impact on the future of Africa.



My generation has made many unforgivable mistakes, but I am inclined to believe that our younger leaders have a better understanding of what the future needs. Their focus was clearly on responsible investing considering diversity, green energy, and transformation. It was heartening to hear the statistics on incremental growth in FDI into Africa and the interest from a lot of pockets of capital to invest into bankable transactions in Africa. I was also delighted to meet the founder of the Harambeans; an organization developing the younger generation of innovators and entrepreneurs in Africa. Despite the gloom at a macro level, there is much hope for the future of our continent.



Despite all the gloom, I am a die-hard optimist and believe strongly in the words of Nelson Mandela: “I am fundamentally an optimist. Whether that comes from nature or nurture, I cannot say. Part of being optimistic is keeping one’s head pointed toward the sun, one’s feet moving forward. There were many dark moments when my faith in humanity was sorely tested, but I would not and could not give myself up to despair. That way lays defeat and death.”

From Ukraine To The Antarctic And Africa: What The Future Needs

THE LAST THREE MONTHS WERE largely dominated with negativity; it started with the conflict in Ukraine that had a cascading impact on food shortage, supply chains, equity markets, commodities and currencies. The vulnerability of the crypto market was exposed as billions of dollars of value disappeared into the abyss of the dark web; a domain of which I only have a peripheral view. 



When the world of Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs), crypto currencies and the ubiquity of the blockchain was becoming fashionable, I nostalgically reflected on my late father’s forlorn look when he struggled with what was the start of the internet era in the late 1990s. He was getting to 70 at that time and right until he passed in 2017, and despite his two engineering degrees and numerous doctorates, he grappled to align his education and experience with the world of internet.



The transition between his generation and mine was relatively gradual. Our generation (Boomers) also grew up using log tables, the slide rule (analog computer) was just getting phased out and calculators had just surfaced. From a consumer perspective, nothing earth-shattering happened between the 1960s and 1980s other than the travel industry that was revolutionized by the commercialization of aircraft and satellite television; so while we could reach places faster and watch color TV at home, we were quite satisfied with the linear pace of life including but not limited to the regular postal service that took 15 days to get a reply to a letter or travelers cheques when we traveled as credit cards didn’t exist.



In comparison, I was in a lift with three other people the other day and each one was frantically messaging as though their life depended on a response that could not wait until after disembarking from the elevator. I find it very difficult to even imagine the world we grew up in.



Perhaps I feel the same way as my father did, as the adaptation of technology and the evolution of consumerism has never been faster than today. As I turn to my son (Gen Y) looking for answers, he sagaciously and patiently explains to me where he sees the world going with blockchain, artificial intelligence (AI) and virtual reality (VR). He talked about DALL-E, an AI tool that facilitates the digital visualization of text and the fact that most repetitive tasks currently being performed, including those by accountants and lawyers, will be delivered through AI. But then, with his growing wisdom, he readily admits that the generation (Gen Z) after his has already started talking a language that he will soon too, not understand. He is 34. The irony now is that his one-year-old daughter, in her infancy, somehow knows that the cell phone gets everyone’s attention. I can’t even comprehend what she will be teaching him in 20 years. This rapid evolution is inevitable.



If history be the shepherd of what we witnessed with the internet bubble recovery post-2001 then one can perhaps make an educated guess that the current correction from the crypto bubble of 2022 will result in a more measured world where the learnings will be factored into tangible developments on the web and not just the mindless purchase of digital cartoon characters that were bought and sold for thousands of dollars validating the ‘greater fool theory’. The fools holding the baby will undoubtedly blame everything other than greed and portray themselves as the trailblazers who turned into the proverbial sacrificial lambs. The ‘hindsight 20/20’ pundits have already started talking about dollar cost average and consolidating positions; we have heard this every time the markets have corrected. If we believe in economic cycles, then the carnage of the current correction shall also pass until the next bubble. But the markets are not our pressing issue.



The real issue we continue to deal with is the pressing conflict in Ukraine and the realignment of nations. It will take decades for the world to completely redefine supply chains based on altered geopolitics. In the meantime, the global recession caused by this senseless conflict is imminent. There is a rise in prices of everything and the common man has nowhere to go. Consequently, there are strikes in all parts of the world for wage correction. These matters will be further exacerbated in the winters when there is a shortage of oil and gas supplies to Europe. Thousands have died, millions have been displaced and rendered homeless, billions of dollars of assets have been destroyed and the world has no answers. I continue to question the relevance of the permanent status given by the UN Charter to five sovereign states – China, Russia, USA, UK and France. When those who are custodians of good order perpetuate crimes against humanity (and this is not just Russia); who must call them to order?



This is at the root of the problem and until the Charter is re-written and takes away the veto rights from these five, the world will remain hostage to the whims of these nations; most of whom have lost their high ground to give moral lessons to the rest of the world. What is the pathway to stop 



this abuse of dominance while the world watches in shock and despair?



These concerns have been resonated by our business leaders in South Africa, where we are facing challenges of our own. The concerns are at many levels. The first relates to the economic future of the continent, both as an immediate concern on shortages and perhaps a wake-up call for policy-makers to rapidly incentivize indigenization of every industry vertical to achieve self- reliance. It is abundantly clear that Africa’s problems must be solved by its own people, and this will need a concerted effort from governments and business to ensure that we are insulated from global events as much as possible.



The future energy and food security of the continent is an important imperative as these shortages will see prices skyrocket and intensify poverty to painful thresholds that may result in civil unrest. I engaged with several policy- makers and the requirements are very clearly understood; the problem lies in the implementation.



The implementation rests largely with a strong administrative service or bureaucracy. The bureaucracy remains largely ineffective both on account of unqualified people running the departmental functions, too much interference from the politicians on the appointment of senior functionaries, and largely because good people don’t want to serve in a toxic environment and have left the service. The continuity and consistency of policy can only come from a strong bureaucracy. Strengthening this service based on meritocracy is a critical need in most African countries including South Africa.



The other anxiety is regarding the state of political play in South Africa. As the continent’s leading economy, South Africa is undoubtedly heading into a crevasse of political turbulence. Saving a miracle, the (un)surprisingly bankrupt African National Congress (ANC) is likely to drop below 51% leading to an era of fragmented provincial politics, the emergence of new parties and the era of coalition governments. While this will bring uncertainty, it will finally usher the much-needed accountability and a drive towards a path of true service to people. This fate is now accepted by a large number of people in South Africa including staunch ANC stalwarts who believe that the ANC has now outlived its charter and must go through reincarnation with a relevant doctrine to serve its people. This process is inevitable and necessary for South Africa as this is the only way that the country will come out of the downward spiral that it has gone into for the last decade or so. The fragmentation has already started with many political parties emerging and many more on the horizon. Some have a single agenda and that is to topple the ANC at any cost but eventually, the country needs a manifesto beyond superficial differences and move forward on a path to social and economic recovery.



But all has not been doom and gloom in the last few months. The business community in Africa has been vibrant and playing their part in keeping the wheels of prosperity in motion. It was time for us to celebrate African business leadership once again and on June 3 2022, after being subdued for two years (because of Covid), we decided to host the All Africa Business Leaders Awards (AABLAs) as an in-person event.



After much debate, we decided to organize and celebrate the tenth milestone AABLA event in Sun City (in South Africa’s North West province). Despite a two-hour drive from Johannesburg, and as validated by so many of our distinguished guests, it was a befitting decision. It was a memorable evening celebrating Africa’s most successful business leaders at one of the finest destinations in South Africa. We had some great acceptance speeches from formidable leaders such as Naseem Lahri, Shirley Machaba, Mxolisi Mgojo and Reuel Khoza.



We had another reason to celebrate. On June 1 2022, CNBC Africa completed 15 years of broadcasting. It was a dream that my partner Zafar Siddiqi and I had when we launched this amazing brand in Africa with the vision to change the negative perceptions of the African continent. Fifteen years on, we pride ourselves as being the most comprehensive business news network on the continent. Through all the disruptions and challenges, we have prodded along slowly but surely with some of the most talented members of the ABN family led by Roberta Naicker, Sid Wahi, Godfrey Mutizwa, Jill De Villiers, Renuka Methil, Jean Landsburg, Thameshan Sooriah, Denham Pons and Sue Gounden making a difference to the media landscape through responsible, timely, credible and comprehensive reporting.



This milestone, for me, was perhaps the most nostalgic and valuable toast.



As we start Women’s Month in South Africa, there were many other major milestones that I discovered in the past few weeks. The most satisfying was to see progress in diversity and equality within the business community in South Africa. Noteworthy was the earlier appointment of Nolitha Fakude as the first female President of Minerals Council South Africa in its 131-year history, Dr Nombasa Tsengwa as the first woman CEO to lead Exxaro, Nonkululeko Nyembezi as the first non-executive Chairman of the Standard Bank Group and Shirley Machaba as the first black woman CEO of PwC Southern Africa; these are just a few examples of the recognition of excellence of women in the workplace and to see that despite the many other flaws, South Africa is keeping pace with inclusivity.



In the words of Kofi Annan: “Gender equality is more than a goal in itself. It is a precondition for meeting the challenge of reducing poverty, promoting sustainable development and building good governance.”



Let us celebrate inclusion.

Moving Forward On A Path To Social And Economic Recovery

THE WORLD Health Organization (WHO) stated recently that we are still in the first phase of the Covid-19 pandemic. The five stages determined by WHO are ‘Pandemic, Deceleration, Control, Elimination and Eradication’.



While this projection did create debate from various groups, it’s complex to predict whether future mutations of the virus will be as severe as the Delta variant. Since it’s hard to have any certainty regarding future mutations, it’s best to err on the side of caution and remain vigilant. I believe that these phases are not mutually exclusive. Given all the expenditure on research and vaccine development, the phases will dovetail and expedite to the elimination phase and in time, the eradication phase of the virus. What is clear is that periodic boosters and the Covid-19 vaccination certificate, like the Yellow Fever card, will be an essential part of our travel documents. Despite all the underlying risks, the optimistic human mind has momentarily conquered the fear of Covid-19 as many people have boxed the virus into the category of a flu.



It was, therefore, not surprising to see that all flights out of Dubai, a global transit hub, over the last three months had extremely high occupancy. This is good for economic recovery, particularly for the tourism and hospitality sector which has seen a sharp resurgence in the first quarter of 2022. With lockdown behind us, we hurried to South Africa (SA) to take advantage of the interspersed windows of travel opportunity.



Johannesburg was, as always, full of action; the highlight was the in-person South Africa Investment Conference under the patronage of HE President Cyril Ramaphosa. The presentations were encouraging and the positivity in the conference rooms reassuring; it was a great time to catch up with old friends some of whom I was meeting after over two years. However, the speech that resonated the most with me was the keynote address at dinner by Dr Patrick SoonShiong, the South African-born scientist, entrepreneur and billionaire.



Dr Soon-Shiong’s journey is well-documented and has been a lifetime in the research and development of cancer-related Abraxane and then many other ventures including his current NantHealth and NantWorks that are focused on using his vast experience and resources to find a sustainable cure for cancer. He advocated the prioritization of healthcare in Africa, specifically building cancer centers, diagnostics and manufacturing in SA and perhaps over time, other parts of Africa. Of all the projects showcased, this one would unquestionably find financial backers including the African Development Bank that could easily underwrite the venture. 



It has to be seen whether the SA government steps up and accords approvals for expeditious implementation as this project could be a strategic pilot project that would inspire many others to follow. Another important message from Dr Soon-Shiong’s talk was his emphasis on self-reliance, particularly in the manufacturing of vaccines and medicines. Indigenization has been talked about for many years by almost all governments but the implementation ends up in vain as vested interests and unnecessary regulatory minefields prevent the setting up of sustainable projects in Africa.



In general, the continent is not short of raw materials, qualified people or money. What it lacks is research capacity, intellectual property, technology and most importantly, amidst corruption, political will and the lack of continuity and consistency in economic policy.



This gap continues to foster the export of raw material to different parts of the world with no sustainable development within the continent. What is required is a paradigm change towards indigenization not because of the opportunities as they present themselves but also because of the necessity demonstrated by recent global events.



The war in Ukraine is complex and is going to change the world in more ways than any previously known conflict. Other than the unnecessary and condemnable death and destruction that has been the immediate outcome, the economic and geopolitical ramifications are going to be far-reaching. Sadly, the lesson that has been propagated from this crisis is that countries must militarily align and spend more on defence for a safer future; the truth cannot be further from this.



It is undoubtedly every country’s mission to defend its territorial integrity but creating a war hysteria and overspending on defence is not a sustainable solution particularly for developing countries. There is far too much at stake and nations must not fall into debt traps by vested interests advocating the prioritization of defence spending over economic development.



The immediate global priority is that the war must end. Looking ahead, the realignment of power blocs will be the outcome of self-interest that will drive every nation towards making choices that suit their long-term goals. In my book, Be a Lion, I have talked extensively about ‘interdependence’ and that relationships diminish in value when there is inequitable dependence.



Developed nations are not vested into Africa and their interest could falter based on unpredictable external factors. How does one insulate against these risks of being left unaided in the time of need? The only answer is immediate diversification by prioritizing regional collaborations and creating greater interdependence.



Security in all its forms has to be derived from our neighbors and not from nations and allies so far removed that they have no interest in our long-term sustainability. The continent today has several economic blocs that include the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), the East African Community (EAC), the Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). These blocs need to be further strengthened. In addition to these blocs are various trade partnerships, the most prominent of which is the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) which came about in 2018 and the AfCFTA agreement is signed by 54 of the 55 African countries and ratified by 36.



AfCFTA could not have come at a better time for the African continent and has the right stated focus – “AfCFTA aims at accelerating intra-African trade and boosting Africa’s trading position in the global market by strengthening Africa’s common voice and policy space in global trade negotiations.”



It’s now time to start implementing various proposals and building self-sufficiency. There is absolutely nothing wrong in protecting your local markets and your people by deciding what is in your long-term interest. As we build infrastructure, industries, technology, power and logistics, the priority sector focus in Africa must be food and water security.



Africa has all the natural resources and an arable land mass; we must ensure that the continent is capable of feeding its population and then feeding the world. To entice the younger generation, there is a need to provide incentives and create an environment where the youth see the same value in agritech as they see in fintech.



There are other weaknesses that have emerged from the continuing war in Ukraine. The sanctions against Russia and its expected response has exposed the global supply chain vulnerability. To illustrate, the termination of Russian oil and gas supply can create significant disruption to the countries particularly in Eastern Europe. Switching suppliers is not as easy as it is being made out to be. Industries and refineries have been designed around certain raw material specifications; the cost and losses resulting from inefficiencies and medium-term supply will be catastrophic. On the Russian side, there is alienation from payment systems, credit cards, communications, logistics and just about everything, including but not limited to healthcare and food. As we condemn these acts, there are realities that we need to ponder over in the period ahead and implement plans to ensure that Africa is insulated from arbitrary actions that can cripple its development through over-reliance on external strengths. 



I had the good fortune to attend a seminar organized by the Schiller Institute that focused on the new security and development architecture for all nations.



The conference resonated with my beliefs for course correction and the need for a new world order. The webinar theme was around the fact that “our world is under the immediate existential threat of generalized warfare and economic destruction affecting billions of people, including the possibility of nuclear war, and thus the possible annihilation of the human species. It is therefore extremely urgent to establish a new Security and Development Architecture for all Nations, which must take into account the interest of every single nation on the planet”.



Through the various messages articulated was a profound message: “Man is the only species endowed with creative reason, which distinguishes him from all other living beings. This creative capability enables him to continuously discover new principles of the physical universe, which is called scientific progress. The fact that the human mind, through an immaterial idea, is able to discover these principles, which have an effect in the material universe in the form of technological progress, proves that there is correspondence between the lawfulness of the human mind and the lawfulness of the physical universe.



Seen from this perspective, the economy has nothing to do with monetary profit, but with the happiness of the people, in the sense meant by Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz, i.e., that people are able to develop all the inherent potentials they have into a harmonious whole, and thus contribute to the best further development of mankind.”



The sheer brilliance of these words will resonate with every human because more than anything else, we strive towards happiness. This was further validated by an articulate Scott Galloway who ended his webinar on ‘provocative predictions’ by highlighting the most common question raised to him by audiences – “Where does one see the most investable opportunity in the post-pandemic world”? His response could not have been more profound – “Invest in your relationships and in happiness”. Your economic status has no bearing or value if at the end you do not have happiness or the unadulterated support of your near and dear ones.



In the words of the Dalai Lama: “Happiness is not something readymade, it comes from your own actions.” If the essence of life is happiness resulting from building close relationships, then why are we losing our way?

Op-Ed: Course Correction, Paradigm Shifts And A Profound Truth

<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-style-large is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">I pray for the people there, for the families of the many hundreds that I had met and for the souls of all those that have passed on during this unfortunate conflict; but more than anything, I pray for the children who have witnessed this brutality as history has reminded us that nothing lingers more than the insidious memories in grieved hearts which may perpetuate into a destructive future.</blockquote>



THE WAR IN Ukraine has dominated the news over the last few weeks. There are no winners in war; sadly, as always, it is people who will suffer. The colossal migration of people, the irreparable loss of life and accompanied suffering, the destruction of infrastructure and the economic disaster ahead all point to the futility of decisions made by leaders who have all lost sight of the greater good.



At the core of all irrational decisions lies man’s eternal desire to look for material benefit beyond what one needs. History has a convoluted mechanism of being documented; regardless of the outcomes, this sad human catastrophe will go down as one of life’s greatest regrets. 



I am a global citizen today and believe strongly that life’s solutions can never be found in death and destruction; so unless we want to go back to the stone ages and reinvent ourselves, sense lies in finding solutions through dialogue and common sense. The one attribute that leaders need to cast aside is their ego and find a way to end this human carnage. 



I am a dreamer by nature and have sublime dreams of life, purity and the greater good. I hope that by the time this article is published we would have the outcomes that we are all praying for and every party to this conflict rediscovers spirituality and redefines their infinite purpose; it cannot be the destruction of humanity and mankind.



Through this difficult period, I want to reflect on fond memories of my time, both in Russia and Ukraine between 1992 and 1996. I want to give historic context by quoting from page 46 of my book Be a Lion:



“As war raged in the Middle East, the Soviet Union was collapsing. Mikhail Gorbachev was a reformist leader, who in 1985 wanted to make changes to the way the Soviet Union was administered. He came up with two principles of change: perestroika, to deal with economic reform, and glasnost, to ease social and media controls. While the principles were laudable, it became impossible for Gorbachev to control the outcome. Media censorship ended in November 1988 and CNN was the first international TV station to be beamed into Russia, in 1989. The subsequent proliferation of media made it almost impossible to control the process of change. The Berlin Wall came down in November 1989 and Russia declared sovereignty on 12 June 1990. On 8 December 1991, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was formed. At its conception it consisted of 10 former Soviet republics, namely Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. Gorbachev resigned as the last president of the Soviet Union on 25 December 1991 and on the following day the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics was dissolved.”



Against this backdrop, I spent five years in this region, operating from our base in Dubai; similar to the last 18 years in sub-Saharan Africa. What always amazed me was the wealth in the region; not just the mineral resources but the quality of the people, their education, the research and educational institutions, the architecture in Moscow, Petersburg and Kyiv. In Russia,



I spent time in Moscow, Petersburg, Perm and a few other places like Magnitogorsk in the Urals. In Ukraine, I have lovely memories of my time in Kyiv, Donetsk, Dnepropetrovsk and Odessa; I cannot even imagine what these cities would be looking like today. I pray for the people there, for the families of the many hundreds that I had met and for the souls of all those that have passed on during this unfortunate conflict; but more than anything, I pray for the children who have witnessed this brutality as history has reminded us that nothing lingers more than the insidious memories in grieved hearts which may perpetuate into a destructive future.



It will take a long time for the hearts and minds to heal but what is the future from here and where do we go. I had written when Covid unleashed its fury in 2020 that the pandemic had forced us all into our shells to reflect on what was truly important and find our renewed purpose.



I quote: “The pollution has lifted; we should see our metamorphosis clearly now. Choices are ours to make and we must reconsider our priorities.” In December 2022, I wrote: “As profound as it sounds, through the trials of 2020, business lessons aside, my three visits to my ophthalmologist were symbolic of getting clarity of vision. Covid-19 in my view has been a global visit to our respective ophthalmologists; our vision had become blurred and some corrective procedures have been performed.



We all know the ‘why’, the ‘what’ and the ‘how’ of our circumstances, all that’s left is the ‘will’ to fix things. There is really no brain surgery required. Simply put, it’s all in the implementation of measurable actions with honesty, humility, integrity and honor. Most people I have interacted with unanimously agree that our world is going to change in many ways; consequently, we are likely to adapt to these changes more rapidly than anticipated. It’s our conduct that will define the change that we wish to see.”



Have we not learned anything at all?



The world is not going to be the same after this conflict is behind us. Instead of moving towards a sustainable future, the insecurities are bound to increase. The first ramification is going to be in the global increase in defence spending; some countries have already announced this. Instead of food and water security, healthcare and education, governments are going to catalyse the ‘guns versus butter’ equation in favor of guns. The more worrying part is the monetary realignment. There will be a significant realignment in the geo- political arena; the most immediate is the opportunistic bond between Russia and China (enemy’s enemy is a friend with regards to the US). These two giants with common boundaries, logistic routes and an aligned Mongolia can service each other’s needs without any intermediary platform or help; monetary or otherwise. With Europe largely fragmented and in turmoil, the Indian sub-continent neutral, outside of Japan, US and Germany, there is no other economic power that can challenge this emerging Sino-Russian collaboration.



The other major move that is going to begin is a radical change to self-sufficiency and indigenization. There is far too much dependence today on developed countries to service the needs of the developing world.



It does not take a rocket scientist to understand the insecurity of sanctions; all nations will start preparing for a future that is sustainable and where reliance is within regional alliances. This extends to the business world; everything from franchises and intellectual property will need to be relooked. There is a need to ensure that when any patent of intellectual property is registered, it has value only if it has significant value addition in the country where it is sold failing which it must be cancelled. This will expedite rapid transformation towards indigenization.



While this is a complex subject, one needs to really see the sustainability of financial sanctions on Russia and its trading partners. If sanctions apply to anyone dealing with Russia, the dissemination and evaporation of global economics and financial markets will be faster than any known vaporization in history. So how will this selection or partial selection of sanctions, including those by multinational corporations, work and will the negatively impacted countries accept this hypocrisy; and what moral high ground will those adjudicators have in making these decisions; and where will it leave their leadership in the free world? These dilemmas are real and will need to be addressed in the period ahead or do we expect that the sanctions will be lifted and the principles of humanity are relegated in favor of economic interests? What lessons are we to draw from such futile face-saving actions for the future that are nothing but rhetoric?



Energy in all its forms plays a vital role in global alignments. Other than Venezuela in Latin America, all members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are in the Middle East and Africa. Oil is a finite resource and OPEC will want to ensure its long-term sustainability and want to remain neutral to sanctions. How will this be impacted if China as the largest consumer of oil, rearranges its purchases largely from Russia (a non-OPEC member)? OPEC has already made its position clear of not increasing oil production which will inflate the price of oil for all countries that toe the line of sanctions. Similarly, the European Union cannot in the short term cut their much-needed gas supplies from Russia. How then can sanctions be a serious consideration; it is likely that they will only apply as convenient.



The US dollar has been the default reserve currency but this is going to change in the medium-term. China was already insecure about this historic imbalance but this conflict and connected sanctions will force alternatives; the shape and form will emerge in the not-so-distant future. It is anticipated that China will surpass the US as the largest economy by 2030, which would likely place the Renminbi as the default reserve currency; will this get catalysed by the current events?



These are just some of the issues that the world will face going forward. As a citizen of the free world, I now question the relevance of institutions like the United Nations that were constituted to bring a form of unity to the world. The League of Nations was formed after World War I and it is recorded in history that the failure of the League of Nations was one of the reasons that resulted in World War II. The United Nations was formed after World War II with the following stated purpose: “The United Nations is an intergovernmental organization aiming to maintain international peace and security, develop friendly relations among nations, achieve international cooperation, and be a centre for harmonizing the actions of nations. It is the world’s largest and most familiar international organization.”



Is what is happening now because of the complete failure of the United Nations’ role where blocks like the European Union and NATO are playing a more dominant role in the alignment of interests of the developed world? Who will answer to this incongruity and how do we ensure that nations live and remain militarily nonaligned? Is that idealism or a necessity for the future?



Like many of you, I am confused and helpless about our future but more than that, I am concerned about what legacy are we going to leave for our children and future generations?

Have We Not Learned Anything At All?

India’s Covid catastrophe and the lessons for governments around the world on preparing for the next wave.



I arrived in Delhi with my wife on 15th April 2021 as the Covid-19 pandemic had started to rage through our country. Our only motivation was to be with our respective mothers who live alone in Delhi. When we landed in Delhi, things were relatively normal, and on the surface, it was almost business as usual. The first telltale sign of the impending chaos was when we did not get our test reports from the PCR tests that were taken on arrival in Delhi. The word ‘normal’ is relative, as for most other countries in the world, 250,000 cases a day would have been catastrophic. In a matter of two weeks, and as I write this piece, the cases crossed 400,000 on 30th April 2021 with no end in sight. Our hindsight pundits say that the peak will signal approximately 500,000 cases a day or over 3.5 million cases a week. The scale of this problem is gigantic and as news has spread across the globe, people are shocked and the affected are incensed and outraged by the lack of preparedness.



There was no reason for a country like India to not be prepared. Just a few months back, we had proudly positioned ourselves as the vaccine capital of the world. How did we go from being the hunter to the hunted in three months? How did we ignore the words of the Director-General of the World Health Organization who categorically stated that the next wave was going to be deadly?



I have watched the news over the last few weeks and sadly seen that the finger-pointing does not stop even during times of calamity. With all the human suffering that we have witnessed, there is no one who has the moral courage and integrity to accept that he or she has made an error in judgement. Our judiciary at the highest level had to point out to the Election Commission of India that they failed the people of the country by continuing with elections in three regions. The only people that have stayed the course are the frontline workers who have remained resolute in their resolve to help save human lives. The poor as always face the brunt of any calamity and this has been no different in this case. However, for once, the rich have not been spared either. People with millions in their bank accounts have fallen prey to this pandemic as in the end all they needed was an extract from freely available air and yet it was in short supply. No amount of money could help people source oxygen or find a hospital bed. The current virus is far more contagious and spreading faster through the air. The catastrophe has seen no caste, creed or economic disparity; everyone has suffered. The agony and despair of the people of our country have been beyond any human suffering that I have witnessed during my life. And yet, we will get past even this; such is the tenacity of human beings.



The citizens of India have suffered as a consequence of serious and inexcusable omissions and negligence on the part of the national and state leadership; every one of them. However, the people of the country must take responsibility for their reckless conduct leading to this disaster that will set our country back from its path to recovery. Not adhering to social distancing and taking the vaccination drive seriously are two major errors of judgement by the people. When disaster struck, everyone wanted to be vaccinated at the same time causing a system overload. I would like to take this opportunity to highlight some of the immediate actions that African and other governments must take on a war footing.



The biggest failure is stakeholder communications. The people of India were given to believe that the pandemic was over in February 2021. Politicians thumped their chests as they did their victory laps taking credit for beating the virus. This gave a false sense of security and people put their guards down and started behaving like it was business as usual. Clear communication from the government must continue indicating in no uncertain terms that the crisis is far from over.



Until a majority of the population has been vaccinated, all major events (of whatsoever nature including weddings, sports, religious or political campaigning) must be cancelled or held virtually. For everything else including office and other entertainment, dining and retail activities, all social distancing protocols must be followed meticulously. We have learned from 2020 that 100% lockdowns may not be necessary and to find the right balance, where needed, consider localized restrictions in infection zones. Lockdowns should be used as a measure of last resort as they are likely to do more damage than good.



Linked to vaccinations is the importance of testing. Governments must set up more labs for testing at reasonable costs and continue testing its constituents for the infection and also determine any variations or mutations to the virus until the vaccination drive is conclusively completed.



All governments must revert back to March 2020 and begin ramping up their healthcare infrastructure. This is the time to build additional ICU capacity in hospitals and infrastructure at several temporary purpose-built facilities that can take on overflows from hospitals. Some facilities should be built beforehand and others must be stored in semi-knocked-down condition in warehouses should the need arise. All hospitals must have adequate ambulance services available to move people as necessary.



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">“The pharmaceutical sector must be given incentives in Africa so that capacity to produce medicines is enhanced exponentially. Collaboration must be set up with international companies to enhance both patented and generic medicines so that developing countries are not treated with lower priority when it comes to healthcare; all human lives are equally valuable.”</blockquote>



Ramp up oxygen production capacity and ensure that the storage of 50% excess capacity than normal national utilization targets are kept in reserve. This has proven to be the lifeline for Covid patients. In the same vein, all other oxygen infrastructure should be ramped up, including concentrators and other devices that can be used at home by people. The experience in India has been that for this particular virus, home care has been far more effective for a majority of the cases. For that, freely available support systems for home use are invaluable.



The only cure to the pandemic is an aggressive vaccination policy. There is no cure other than getting vaccinated and governments must procure vaccinations and make them available at a reasonable cost (if not free) to the entire nation. Countries that are behind on the vaccination drive must ramp it up and carry out a campaign to educate people on the urgent need to get vaccinated. There is clear evidence of lower incidences in countries where the vaccination rates are high. For Africa, I believe that the DFIs must immediately look at setting up infrastructure to become self-reliant on vaccines for the future. This is not an option; if anything is to be learned, no time must be wasted on this. It’s not rocket science and immediate action must be taken to develop the pharma industry expeditiously.



The pharmaceutical sector must be given incentives in Africa so that capacity to produce medicines is enhanced exponentially. Collaboration must be set up with international companies to enhance both patented and generic medicines so that developing countries are not treated with lower priority when it comes to healthcare; all human lives are equally valuable. Capacity must also be built for other hygiene products including masks, sanitizers, PPEs and other essential items.



An area that needs attention is the training of healthcare workers. The pandemic is contagious and care-givers need to be trained to stay out of harm’s way. The only way this can be done is to improve the quality of training of all frontline workers.



My next comment is on the role of the media. Being a media owner myself, I understand the need for accurate and actionable news but there rests an enormous responsibility in finding a balance between highlighting negligence and fueling chaos. Remember one thing always, that no government or administration ever wants to harm its people; this must remain an intrinsic belief at all times. As a case study, in India, over the last two weeks, there has been a frenzy in the Indian media regarding lapses in the preparation and the state of affairs at hospitals. While on the one hand, it served the very important purpose of holding public servants accountable for the absolute mismanagement of this crisis, the media created unintended fear in the public. This fear resulted in people going to hospitals the minute they tested positive thus clogging the system; there was a run on oxygen cylinders and concentrators as people began hoarding them and finally, there was a run on pharmacies that ran out of essential medicines because even people who did not need medicines, as a precaution, began storing them. What then emerged was a black market that has preyed on the sick and despondent.



It is my request to all media businesses around the world to begin devoting more than a cursory mention to the awareness campaigns around the pandemic. More inventory needs to be devoted towards educating people on the actions to be taken when the next wave arrives, the importance of vaccination and most importantly, on responsible social behavior. The best cure still is wearing masks, social distancing and sanitizing one’s hands regularly. If and when the next wave hits, the media must spend more time on educating people on taking precautions and symptoms management so that everyone does not run to hospital. If you can educate even a few people, you would have done your duty to humanity. Remember this is far from over and the lessons from India must be taken seriously by all governments around the world. Prepare for the next wave or history will repeat itself.



– The writer is the Founder and Publisher of FORBES AFRICA

From The Eye Of The Storm

We inherently believe that if we had a chance to change the world, we would do something dramatically different. In reality, when people get into positions of power, they get bogged down with the mundane and eventually become conformists; it’s easier to adapt than to change. Having lived through five economic cycles over the last 30 years, I asked myself what I would do differently if I had control of the world at a time when the world economy is gutted by the pandemic and the World Health Organization (WHO) has stated that the worst is yet to come. With these onerous terms of reference, one is compelled to think of extreme measures to provide relief to the dire and helpless situation that the majority of people around the world find themselves in.



In any crisis, what becomes most critical is the availability and flow of money within our economies particularly to the small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). It’s recognized that almost 70% of employment comes from the SME sector. However, in difficult times, the cash-tap dries up and money flows to this all-important sector dries up. Commercial banks are best known for the adage “offer an umbrella when there is no rain” and as entrepreneurs in the SME sector will validate this as banks ask for 100% cash collateral when things get tough. That is risk mitigation 101.



When unemployment is at 30% and when almost 70% of the global population is at risk, there is this select group of institutions that continue to do well. These are a majority of the listed companies and the financial services sector in general. I am quoting from my Publisher’s Note in FORBES AFRICA in June 2020: “Continuing to look at our magical numbers, global GDP is flirting around $100 trillion and total global debt is around $250 trillion (give or take a few trillion). The market capitalization of the 60 main exchanges in the world is around $70 trillion. In terms of profitability, just the S&amp;P 500 companies were projected to deliver approximately $1.5 trillion in profits in 2020, the global banking sector would deliver profits of $250 billion to $300 billion and the technology sector approximately $356 billion. These numbers are larger than the GDPs of most countries. The numbers for Africa are not as high but there are thousands of businesses that are doing well and will continue to do so after the pandemic is over. It’s, therefore, clear that while we have problems from time to time, we also have the resources to fix them; many times over. Hence, it’s time for us to go back to the drawing board and start from zero by redefining our purpose, the difference we need to make and the legacy we will leave.”



Let’s also put two other terms of reference on the table relating to banks. Bank closures and failures on account of bad debt write-offs, non-performing assets or over leveraged balance sheets, seldom come from bad loans to the SME sector or to farmers in the agricultural sector. History is a witness (as Google can validate) that the majority of causes come from lending to large corporates, poor governance and through fraud. Secondly, even in crisis, as central banks reduce interbank rates, commercial banks seldom pass this on to the SME sector; beneficiaries are once again people who can afford the higher interest rates.



Rather than rearticulate, I want to quote from the same note in June: “If we are to be truly reincarnated, the script must be rewritten and inequality must be the first value for rehabilitation. In reality, even though resources are abundant, the gaps have continued to widen and the levels of poverty have increased. This is largely because of how we have developed the economic value chain; people that make the most money are the financial engineers who are trading stocks and not those sweating in the field manufacturing products and delivering services. The cocoa bean, sugar or chicken farmer make 6% of the amount that the retailer makes selling the finished products, who in turn, makes 50% less than the equity trader, who makes the most money trading on the stock. Anna, the tea lady in our office in Johannesburg, was charged an annual interest rate of 26% by one of the top banks to pay the college fees for her only son; no recourse. This is exploitation and needs to change through radical reforms of our entire banking system and the capital markets to harbor on making them very efficient but not for profit; the profit needs to be reinvested at the grassroots level. We need more farmers ploughing the fields, as, at the end of the day, we cannot eat “paper stock”.”



Let’s agree that governments cannot be the answer to all the problems. Governments can provide stimulus, change policies and even print money (if that is indeed a solution), but at the end of the day, the real cash that is available is in the financial system to include capital markets. Even when the entire world economy has come to a standstill, the people who continue to make profits are those that are feeding off the financial services trough. &nbsp;



My over-simplified list of actions, as radical as they may sound, are mild in contrast to what is needed today. I would increase the capital of all multilaterals and Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) by pro rata contributions from the wealthy nations, but ensure that in turn they (including the World Bank and IMF) reduce lending rates significantly and waive interest for three years on all national debt for developing countries. Secondly, to shut all capital markets and exchanges for two years, stop all exits from private investments for two years (rather invest in venture and growth capital), no dividends are paid by listed companies for two years, ensure all cash raised in funds goes into growth capital, interest cap on loans to individuals at the lowest income bracket, and 100% of profits from banks, insurance, credit card, listed companies, investment banks, audit firms, consultancies and property development companies is channeled back to government coffers to support the core sector industries particularly agriculture, healthcare, SMEs and infrastructure (including low-cost housing). To plug some loopholes, no increases in salaries or any bonuses or incentives provided to any employee (other than the lowest income groups) for two years. It may put a small percentage of people through minor but endurable inconvenience but 70% of the world will see some measure of improvement.



The Greek physician <a href="https://www.yourdictionary.com/Hippocrates">Hippocrates</a>, is known to have said: “For extreme diseases, extreme methods of cure, as to restriction, are most suitable.” This, when translated by many people in history, has led to a common phrase “desperate times call for desperate measures”. Well, the time for procrastination is over and it is time to act. If I had the reins of the world, I most certainly would take draconian measures for better good.



– The writer is the Founder and Publisher of FORBES AFRICA

Author: Rakesh Wahi

FORBES AFRICA SOCIAL MEDIA