“Nothing can be said to be certain, except Death and Taxes” – Benjamin Franklin, 1789
As we head into the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), there is the possibility that only one of those will remain a certainty.
While taxes may morph from employee-contribution-for-state-resources, to a nominal amount on the gains of technology, to a Universal Basic Income (UBI) – death may yet be conquered.
An increasing number of futurists believe that death is a disease; and like any disease it can be cured. Perhaps the most prominent of these is Ray Kurzweil, Google’s chief futurist, with a prediction accuracy rate of 86% (115 of 147 since the 1990s). Kurzweil believes by 2029, we will see signs of living forever when we reach ‘Longevity Escape Velocity’ – the point at which every year we live, we extend our lifespan by at least another year.
The oldest verified living person, Chiyo Miyako, died at 117 years old in July. However, the number of centenarians is up 44% from 2000 to 2014. Improvements in vaccines, antibiotics, hygiene and sanitation are all contributing factors to increasing survival to advanced ages.
Coupled with affordable healthcare, food abundance, and a decrease in non-natural death causes (war, measles, diabetes), global life expectancy increased from 65.3 years in 1990 to 71.5 years in 2013.
The cost of sequencing the genome has decreased exponentially from approximately $150 million (2013) to under $1,000 (2015), a reduction of 150,000x. Once quantum computers become mainstream, the cost to sequence an individual genome could be cheaper than flushing the toilet! This could lead to mass customized medicines, further decreasing human mortality rate.
Additionally, the introduction of CRISPr allows scientists to cut out and replace living DNA; effectively eradicating almost all diseases and rewriting the genetic code that governs life expectancy.
And we haven’t even included advancements in nano-tech, AI to determine genetic diffusions, R&D into reversing aging, 3D printing organs, or human augmentation to the point of ‘the singularity’.
With life expectancy of, say 200, versus today’s 75, there are a number of considerations. Many challenge the conventional paradigms we currently deem normal. Questions of increased retirement, education systems, second, third or even fourth careers, children and life-savings, are obvious short-term issues to address.
At a micro level, which individual wouldn’t want to spend just another year with a sick loved one? However, at a macro level, this would be far from ideal. Arguably, the greatest issue we face is resource constraints caused – not by over-population per se (the United Nations projects a world population of 9.7 billion by 2050) – but by the number of consumers and the scale/nature of that consumption.
Across Africa, the median age is 19.4 years with a total population of approximately 1.3 billion, however, the average age of the continental leadership is 65 years old. Already Africa has a history of dictatorships, and with leaders living longer, will we have more authoritarian rule?
With an increasingly aging active workforce, what is the future of jobs? Especially coupled with the replacement of labor with 4IR technologies (robotics, AI, automated plants) and youth unemployment upwards of 50%. From a capitalist perspective, efficiency gains and profit maximization will drive business decisions. However, are we further creating a situation whereby the Gini gap increases while the rich, aging, experienced reap the benefits of longevity? Are we sitting atop a socio-economic time bomb with increasing inequality?
Advances in technology will definitely drive the upward age of longevity toward the 200 mark. However, there are a number of considerations – both moral and social – that we have not begun to think about, as a species. Ultimately, the question is no longer if death (like taxes) is inevitable, but rather: even if we can conquer death – should we?
– By Craig Wing, a partner at FutureWorld International, driving innovation and futures thinking across organizations globally. He is a thought-leader on 4IR, future of work and corporate culture.
Why Now Is The Time To Invest In African E-commerce
Although Africa is all too often viewed by investors and the public at large as being the “dark continent”, more often than not, they are letting prejudices and misconceptions cloud their judgment about some of the most exciting investment destinations available. In 2018 alone, six of the ten fastest growing economies in the world were in the African continent.
This prejudice is compounded by the natural tendency for investors to invest in what they know best and are most familiar with, which is often what is in their own country. Globalization has, however, made markets more interconnected, and distance is becoming less of the obstacle it once was.
The continent is blessed with strong demographics, considerable natural resources, and increasingly, a more stable political and investment environment for multinationals to operate within. Even traditional hindrances such as poor infrastructure can be viewed as a potential opportunity, particularly in the area of financial services and e-commerce.
Jiji, is the largest classifieds business marketplace in Nigeria, it was started from scratch five years ago, by a group of seasoned e-commerce professionals. With a market of 200 million people, Nigeria provides enormous upside should a business take off. The horizontal classified business model (any online business using http) does, according to Goldman Sachs, offer one of the most attractive investment models in the world, along with search engines and social networks.
It’s not hard to see why it’s such an attractive model, when the “winner takes it all” model is applied, in certain markets, the number one online classifieds controls over 80% of market share. The size of earnings opportunity equals 6 b.p. of the national GDP with 60% of long-term EBITDA margin. It is also an asset-light business model that requires minimal investment in heavy machinery and ensures high cash flow conversion.
The potential upside to the classified business model is particularly evident in a market such as Nigeria that has a young population of just over 200 million people. Nigeria is a mobile-only country (where 90% of traffic is on mobile web and is rapidly shifting to apps) with high and growing Internet penetration. In Africa, classifieds provide the ideal platform for e-commerce, as it enables people to buy and sell both second-hand goods and new ones.
Over the course of the last five years, Jiji has become the largest classifieds marketplace in Nigeria. The platform has just over 6 million unique active monthly users and more than 50,000 professional sellers listing over one million items. In 2018, the Jiji app was rated number one by Android users in the Nigerian shopping category, it is currently the highest rated app in Nigerian e-commerce.
Having cemented its leading position in Nigeria, the team have set their sights on expanding into new African markets, and recently decided to redirect OLX users in Nigeria to Jiji and to acquire OLX businesses in Kenya, Ghana, Uganda, and Tanzania. After the transaction is completed, Jiji will have a presence in five markets, with 300 million people.
In a couple of years, Jiji’s monthly audience is expected to cross the threshold of 10 million users which will make it one of the largest classifieds by traffic. Jiji’s ambition is to build the biggest Africa-based classifieds business, creating a new retail experience for Africa’s fastest-developing countries with a combined population of 300 million.
The deal will allow OLX users in these countries to benefit from Jiji’s market-leading products and services. OLX’s reach combined with Jiji’s own proprietary search and delivery algorithms, will give users a radically streamlined experience and ensure the experience of buying and selling goods more convenient and transparent than ever before.
Africa has in the past been viewed very negatively by potential investors and businesses in general, however, as technology breaks down barriers to accessing finance and supply chain infrastructure the potential opportunities have never been greater.
This combined with greater access to the internet and mobile phones provides imaginative entrepreneurs and businesses a chance to rethink traditional business models and create different systems that cater to the needs of this young, diverse and commercially underserved region.
The team at Jiji recognize the potential benefits and opportunities that this region has to offer, only time will tell if other foreign investors recognize the upside African economies have to offer.
Over The Rainbow: 25 Years Of Freedom For South Africa
South Africa survived colonialism followed by apartheid, and most recently, a new pandemic, HIV/AIDS. While we are living through the aftermath of the old order, the words often attributed to Italian philosopher, Antonio Gramsci, could not be truer: “The old is dying and the new struggles to be born. Now is the time of monsters.”
The dragons we need to slay are clear. We have unacceptably high levels of poverty, youth unemployment, child illiteracy and nutritional stunting. All of which are systematically undermining the next generation’s ability to enjoy freedom.
That said, these are but the more visible aspects of our life together. There are others – the more subtle, social dimensions.
In 2019, non-racialism – the bedrock of the new South Africa – struggles to find relevance in the public imagination in light of the disillusionment many experience in the new political dispensation. It remains devoid of substantial weight and consequence.
Its original purveyors did not theorize it or write about it extensively, making it all the more elusive. What we do know is that race is a social construct and that it has no biological grounding. While it does not exist in a scientific sense, race has profound political, social and economic implications. And it continues to be an undeniable fault-line within South Africa.
What is clear is that non-racialism does not mean not-seeing-race-ness. In this lesser sense, it mimics the American notion of a post-racial society. It is based on the myth that 1994 symbolized a tabula rasa – a blank page. But 25 years later, the past haunts us.
In our public life, we often find ourselves in a rinse-and-repeat cycle in which an offensive action is followed by public uproar and reactive debates. In this polarizing space, the spotlight remains on rabid racists, leaving implicit and internalized anti-black racism unchecked – both of which affect most South Africans.
Political entrepreneurs – understanding the wounds we carry as a nation – capitalize on the moments of uproar by playing on these incidents. What happens in the context of the misuse of our racialized experiences is that well-meaning citizens opt to shun any references to race in order to maintain respectability. This tempts us to see race talk as unproductive rhetoric, and not as a useful language to name our experiences with one another in this country.
In our public life, talk about the past has similarly been weaponised. Our history is either denied or it is deployed to delegitimize, to silence, and to condone the inexcusable. But it is exactly in this moment that we need more robust and critical engagement with our histories and their effects in the present – not less.
When we actually grapple with the historical records, the findings are chequered. History refuses to simply serve as a pass or a trump card. It is far too unruly and intricate to merely be functional. History demands to be reckoned with as a way of understanding the processes that led to the present. A more accurate way of understanding it is as an unfinished story. It has no end and it implicates us all.
A way we can begin to participate in the unfolding of our history is to infuse non-racialism with substance. We need a larger project that rigorously surfaces our experiences at the coalface of the color line. Scholars in the social sciences and the humanities as well as fiction writers have no doubt begun this theorising labor, and their work has to make its way into the mainstream. The process of naming the thousands of experiences we have with each other can begin to inform our imagination about what it means to simultaneously be inclusive, rooted in Africa and released from Europe’s orbit.
The project of naming our experiences for ourselves is an act of power. In fact, the true might of colonialism and apartheid lay not in their arsenal but in their ability to name us, define our borders, to codify our laws, and thus, frame our self-imagination.
In this moment, as South Africa reaches the quarter of a century mark, it is imperative that we take a fresh look at the past. Not merely as a story of victory, but as an incomplete struggle. At 25, all South Africans need to join the struggle, knowing that aluta continua and that the country we inherited in
1994 is ours to continually liberate.
We are part of the same cast of characters in history’s production of South Africa, and we are on the stage now.
– Dr Sebabatso Manoeli is a historian and non-profit professional. She serves as an Innovation Director at the DG Murray Trust. Previously, she was a History Lecturer at the University of Oxford, and at Stanford University’s Montag Center for Overseas Studies. She consulted for the African Union Commission’s Department of Political Affairs and the Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation on transitional justice, as well as the African Peer Review Mechanism.
To Increase Productivity Corporate Africa Needs To Look For Problems
Productivity is calculated by dividing each country’s GDP by the average number of hours worked annually by all employed citizens. In my opinion, country productivity simply means the financial evidence for problems solved by business communities over a period of time.
According to a 2018 report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, businesses in the African continent are among the lowest ranked when it comes to productivity.
This means corporate Africa needs to solve problems that matter. In each firm, the chief executive officer is the chief problem solver for customers and the firm.
In every enterprise, problems are resolved at a different level. The man at the gate solves the problem of parking and watches out for thieves and intruders.
The chief operating officer solves the problems of disorder and inefficiency. The ability of a leader to recognize that everybody in any enterprise has the capability to solve a problem makes the business system efficient and productive.
When a leader believes he is the only one who can solve all problems at every level of an organization, it only wastes the corporate potential. Everybody in an organization has the potential to solve challenges.
Problems are facts of every business because we live in an imperfect world. For winning enterprises, tests are stepping-stones to maturity and productivity.
There are two perspectives to a problem that will put firms in the winning mode.
It is important to be reminded that an outstanding person is the one who resolves an outstanding problem.
Can you think of an outstanding billionaire who didn’t resolve an outstanding problem? I believe there is none.
I think a team’s attitude should be focussed on solving an outstanding issue for all humanity.
That is what Larry Page and his team have done by creating Google. They solved the global problem of searching for information at the click of a mouse.
Secondly, problem-solving is the quickest route to leadership. In every society, people fall into two categories of problems; those who create them and those that solve them. As an entrepreneur, you will be rewarded based the degree of problems you solve, not the ones you create.
As a team member, when you solve a problem beyond your current job description, you are likely ready for a promotion.
Thirdly, the capacity of the entrepreneur is more important than the size of the problem. The problem is the self-image of the person. This means an entrepreneur will not take on activities on the outside that he or she is not capable of on the inside.
These three attitudes mentioned above are important for any firm to create a winning team. Let me quickly say that it is only effective when a business leader helps his or her associates and team members develop this attitude.
When they express these attitudes, they solve challenges with you in the enterprise. Don’t be caught by the ‘Moses syndrome’, because you cannot solve every problem in your enterprise by yourself.
Problem-solving is first an attitude and then a technical skill. Now let me share with you a few technical skills that are applicable to problem-solving.
The first step would be to erect a business thermometer to identify the issue. Focus on vital aspects such as finance, sales, marketing, customer satisfaction, employee performances, and turnover rate.
You need to look for an anomaly in the vital signs before you can identify the threat and knock it off.
Secondly, prioritize the problem and identify the most important and urgent of them and attend to it. The problem can be important, important and urgent, or urgent and unimportant.
You must be able to place it in the appropriate category. You will need to dig around the it to define the real issue. If the sales are poor and it is an important and urgent concern on your priority list, the next thing is to dig around it and define the elements of the problem, both internal and external.
Thereafter, select a project team to solve the contingency.
Whether it is to be solved in two hours, two days, two months or two years, call the project team and give them responsibilities within a space of time to solve it.
Finally, select the best solution and create a policy. Look at all recommended solutions to the problem and select the best that suits it. Evaluate the solution appropriately and set up a policy that can guide against the recurring of the problem in the future.
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