Decisions made by major rating agencies come and go. The more they change, the more they stay the same. Standard & Poor’s has been the latest credit bureau to cut South Africa some slack, in not cutting the sovereign to a non-investment grade. Similar leniency has been shown by Fitch and Moody’s over the past 12 months. In the following year, they may however not be that patient, demanding more tangible progress with reforming the labor market, political cohesion and overcoming the challenges that poorly managed state-owned enterprises (SOEs) pose to economic growth.
Admittedly, no one likes being told what to do. That applies to decision makers in the public sector as well as in the private sector. South Africa continues to flirt with the makings of a recession, where another slip on the credit rating ladder could open up the possibility of borrowing funds from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). While this conjures up images of a bailout, it may not necessarily be as bad as it sounds. Loans come with prescribed conditions to them. The biggest will be boosting GDP growth to a more respectable level, from the lethargic level of 1% it appears destined to grow by over the next few years. The détente that was brokered this year between the government and leaders in the private sector, to halt a further slide in the country’s rating, is significant. It shows the two sides being poles apart on many things, but that the success of the economy is not the preserve of only one side.
Public-private partnerships (PPP) have emerged as a credible tool in meeting infrastructural development challenges, by harnessing the strengths of the private sector and government. The private sector provides technical know-how, management and finance for any key infrastructure project. The public sector offers security for private sector investment and also guides the PPP process through a legal and regulatory framework. A special purpose vehicle is established by the private sector, which raises a combination of debt and equity to finance the project. This structure is particularly important for SOEs; the financier will look more at this structure than it will at the cash-strapped public entity.
This framework is internationally recognized and respected. It encompasses a spending program of more than $58 billion, stretching over the following three fiscal years. Much success has already been seen with Africa’s largest PPP project –the Gautrain Rapid Rail Link, which came in around $1.7 billion. Renewable energy projects have also been successful.
However, the Infrascope project, financed by the World Bank to investigate how prepared and willing 15 African countries were to implement key PPPs, found that the process had challenges. Projects can be difficult to execute, legislative and regulatory processes can be tricky, and a high level of financial skill, sectoral knowledge and familiarity with the different structures which PPPs are needed. International investors also observe that bids have a large element of non-price factors, such as the promotion of black economic empowerment, job creation, socio-economic development and industrialization. Foreign bidders say that these local factors are too demanding and play a larger role than they should. Local stakeholders, such as trade unions, are also skeptical of PPPs, mistaking them for privatization of government assets and wary of the job losses which could accompany such projects.
It is not enough that South Africa’s GDP is growing by less than 1%, nor is it enough that reforms in the labor market have been insufficient to dent a 27.1% unemployment rate. It is also not sustainable that around half of South Africa’s population receives some form of welfare and dependency benefits.
How long it takes to rebuild the economy is difficult to say. It will take at least as long as the 33 consecutive months at which the annualized rate at which the South African Reserve Bank’s leading indicator has contracted.
Amid all the uncertainty, the one mantra which remains steadfast is that politics leads economics.